(15) Ohio State (10-2, 6-6 ATS) at (23) Wisconsin (10-2, 6-4 ATS)
Two of the Big Ten’s five ranked squads hook up for a New Year’s Eve battle at the Kohl Center in Madison, Wis., as the Badgers host Ohio State in the conference opener for both teams.
The Buckeyes wrapped up the nonconference portion of their schedule with a trio of blowout home wins over inferior competition, pounding Presbyterian (78-48), Delaware State (60-44) and Cleveland State (72-59). However, Ohio State failed to cash as hefty double-digit favorites in all three contests, and Thad Motta’s club enters Big Ten play in an 0-4 ATS funk after cashing in six of its first eight games.
Wisconsin has ripped off four straight home victories (3-1 ATS) since a shocking four-point overtime loss at Wisconsin-Green Bay. Most recently, the Badgers toppled Illinois-Chicago 79-43 on Sunday, easily covering as a 21½-point home favorite. During its winning streak, Wisconsin has won by margins of 9, 48, 10 and 36 points, allowing just 51.5 ppg during this stretch.
These rivals have split their last eight meetings, including two Big Ten Tournament clashes. Last year, Wisconsin beat Ohio State 55-50 at home, coming up short as a six-point chalk, but the Buckeyes got revenge in the conference tourney, winning 61-58 as a three-point pup. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and while the host is 5-1 SU in the last six regular-season clashes, the visitor has gotten the money in each of the last four in the regular season.
Ohio State played just one true road game over the first two months of the season, and it was a 74-66 loss at No. 22 Butler as a five-point underdog on Dec. 12. The Buckeyes are 2-2 SU and ATS against ranked teams, losing to North Carolina 77-73 on Nov. 19 as a two-point underdog in the NIT Season Tip-Off at Madison Square Garden, while topping California 76-70 as a 3½-point chalk the following day at the Garden and besting Florida State 77-64 as a seven-point home favorite in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge on Dec. 2.
Wisconsin’s has defeated both of its ranked opponents, crushing then-No. 21 Maryland 78-69 as a two-point underdog in the Maui Invitational, followed a week later by a 73-69 win over No. 6 Duke as a 4½-point home underdog.
While the Buckeyes have failed to cover in four straight games, they’re still on positive pointspread runs of 4-1 on the road, 4-1 in conference play and 6-2 on Thursday. Wisconsin is on ATS upticks of 5-2 overall, 5-1 at home and 5-1 on Thursday, but it failed to cover in four of its final five league games last year and is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after an ATS win.
Ohio State is riding “under” streaks of 10-4 on the road, 5-1 in Big Ten contests and 5-0 against winning teams, but the over is 10-1 in its last 11 on Thursday. The Badgers have stayed low in six of seven conference contests, five straight against winning teams, five of six on Thursday, 35 of 51 after a spread-cover and 10 of 13 after a SU victory. Finally, the last five head-to-head battles between these schools have stayed under the posted number.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER