Thursday's Best NCAAB Bet
Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan State Spartans (-6.5, 129)
When Penn State senior forward Jeff Brooks went down with a shoulder injury, the Nittany Lions had to find a way to make up for a player who led the team in rebounds (7.2 rpg), was second in points (13.2 ppg), and also was the team’s best interior defender.
Racing out to double-digit leads in both the first and second half against Michigan, it appeared that Penn State had solved the issue. But when the final horn sounded, Penn State was on the losing end of a 65-62 score and looked lost for stretches without Brooks. Worse yet, the senior is expected to remain sidelined for a while with his upper body ailment.
"We just played soft, we lacked toughness," Battle said of the Michigan loss. "I'm not gonna beat around the bush. We didn't make the toughness plays. We didn't make one stop."
And it will be interesting to see who can stop Michigan State. In a 66-62 win over the Spartans in Happy Valley earlier this year, Brooks was the star, scoring a team-high 17 points to go with a game-high 12 rebounds. Just as important, he contributed a game-high four blocks.
The Spartans may be falling apart, but the Nittany Lions have no one to replace Brooks and already have plenty of road issues. The team is just 1-6 on opposing courts, posting their only away victory at Indiana.
“They are going to use an apparatus on his shoulder to restrict the mobility, but he will not practice [Tuesday],” PSU coach Ed DeChellis said of Brooks. “He’ll shoot free throws, run around, try to get a sweat and we’ll reevaluate him. If he can’t practice, he won’t play.”
If he doesn’t play, Penn State doesn’t have a chance.
Pick: Michigan State
Thursday's Bubble Watch
By Judd Hall
The last full month of conference play for some teams is just a matter of not getting banged up before their tourneys begin. For other programs, this is their last chance to enhance their resumes for the selection committee. We’ve got two early games on Thursday that have three teams looking to give themselves a much needed win.
Florida State at Georgia Tech
Florida State (16-7 straight up, 9-8-1 against the spread) finds itself sitting on the bubble by its own doing.
They’ve had the quality losses that the committee loves early in the year against the Gators and Buckeyes in Tallahassee. The Seminoles even have the honor of handing Duke its first loss of the season. But getting beaten by Auburn as 13½-point favorites has a habit of destroying memories of previous efforts. Plus, FSU is coming off of a 89-69 drubbing against the Tar Heels as a seven-point road pup last Sunday.
The ‘Noles didn’t show up with their typical defense against North Carolina, letting them shoot 56 percent from the field. And Florida State didn’t help itself by going practically dead from beyond the arch with just 4-of-21 shooting against the Heels.
FSU can’t afford to have that kind of letdown this Thursday against the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech (10-12 SU, 8-9 ATS) comes into this contest with only a chance to play the spoiler. That tends to happen when you’re riding a three-game losing streak.
The Jackets won the turnover battle in their game against Clemson (20-18), but shot just 41 percent from the field in a 65-56 loss as two-point home ‘dogs last Saturday. Georgia Tech failed in the game mainly because they have no presence inside. With no post guys, the Yellow Jackets are resigned to taking jumpers. You can figure that much out because of the fact that they are 280th in the nation with a 41.3 field goal percentage.
Florida State holds a distinct edge in this head-to-head matchup, going on a 5-0 SU run. Yet the Yellow Jackets are 3-2 ATS in that span.
The Seminoles are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five road games this season. Georgia Tech is 3-2 SU and ATS at home in ACC play with the ‘under’ going 5-0 in those tests.
Penn State at Michigan State
If you’re looking for a game that almost acts like an elimination game in the middle of the regular season, then this is the one.
The fact that Penn State (12-10 SU, 9-9 ATS) still is considered a fringe bubble team is nothing short of miraculous. This is a team that found ways to lose to Ole Miss, Maryland, Virginia Tech and Maine of all teams.
So how do they still have a chance? The Nittany Lions picked up wins against ranked teams like the Spartans and Illini. They followed those up with a three-point loss to Ohio State and a one-point setback against Purdue.
PSU has taken a couple steps back recently as they’re on a two-game slide. The most recent loss coming in a 65-62 battle against the Wolverines as a five-point home “chalk” on Super Sunday. That loss was particularly painful since the Nittany Lions held a double-digit lead twice in the game. Look no further than Jeff Brooks being out for this contest with a dislocated shoulder. Brooks leads the team with 7.2 rebounds per game.
Michigan State (13-10 SU, 6-15 ATS) will be happy about Brooks not being in the lineup after he had 12 rebounds against them in a 66-62 loss in Happy Valley as a six-point road favorite. Outside of that absence, the Spartans are in full-on crisis mode. Horrendous road losses at Iowa (-5, 72-52) and Wisconsin (+8 ½, 82-56) make Thursday’s game a must-win situation for Tom Izzo’s crew.
The lack of senior leadership has been disheartening for the Spartans as they continue to slide. Kalin Lucas is putting up points in his last four games for Sparty (22.5 PPG). Durrell Summers, on the other hand, is on a milk carton after scoring a combined 13 points in Michigan State’s last two games.
A win in East Lansing would go a long way for MSU, but Penn State knows that they can win in this hostile environment. The Nittany Lions have a 72-68 win as 12 ½-point road pups back in 2009. Bettors have enjoyed taking Penn State against Sparty since they’re 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in its last four head-to-head meetings.
Michigan State is 4-2 SU, but just 1-5 ATS in its last six home dates this season. The ‘under’ is 4-2 in those games. Penn State
Penn State is on an 0-4 SU slide in road games in the Big Ten. However, they have covered the spread in two of its last three decisions. The ‘under’ is on a 2-0 run as well.
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NCAA Betting Preview: Illinois at Minnesota
By: David Schwab
Williams Arena in Minneapolis is the site of Thursday night’s Big Ten clash between the Fighting Illini of Illinois and the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The game is set to tip at 6 p.m. (PT) and will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
Illinois is just 2-5 straight up in its last seven games and coming off a 71-70 loss to Northwestern as a 1½-point road underdog this past Saturday. Its last victory was a 68-51 romp over Penn State as an eight-point home favorite on Feb. 2. The Fighting Illini find themselves fighting for their tournament lives with an overall record of 15-8 SU (12-11 against the spread) and a 5-5 SU record in conference play.
Senior guard Demetri McCarney leads the team in scoring with an average 14.7 points a game and in assists with an average of 6.7. Senior forward Mike Davis is second on the team in both points with 11.3 and rebounds with 6.7 a game. Senior center Mike Tisdale helps round out a veteran lineup with 9.7 points and 6.8 rebounds a game, while sophomore D.J Richardson is averaging 9.5 points.
The Illini are shooting 47.1 percent from the field and 41 percent from three-point range led by McCarney, who is hitting 45 percent of his shots and an impressive 48.5 percent from outside the three-point line. They are averaging 73 points and 35 rebounds a game.
Minnesota comes into this game with three straight losses including a disappointing 60-57 setback against Indiana last Wednesday as a three-point road favorite and an 82-69 pasting at the hands of No.1 Ohio State as a 4½-point home underdog this past Saturday. The Gophers have fallen to 16-7 SU and 10-13 ATS. They are currently in fifth-place in the Big Ten at 5-6 SU.
A big question mark for this game will be the availability of senior guard Blake Hoffarber, who is listed as probable with a knee injury. He leads the Gophers in points with 14.2 and assists with four a game. Junior forward Trevor Mbakwe is the team’s second leading scorer with 13 points a game and has been a force underneath the boards with an average of 10.3 rebounds. Junior center-forward Ralph Sampson III has also been a key contributor with 10.9 points and 5.5 rebounds a game.
Minnesota is averaging 72 points a game. It is shooting a respectable 46.6 percent from the floor, but just 33.1 percent from three-point range and 65.1 percent from the foul-line. The Gophers remain one of the more solid rebounding teams in the country with an average of 39 a game.
Illinois is 2-3 ATS in its last five games on the road and 3-2 ATS in its last five games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of its last five games.
Minnesota is 2-3 ATS in its last five home games and 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of its last five games.
Head-to-head, the Illini have won eight of the last 10 games SU, but the Gophers have won two of the last three including a 62-60 victory as a three-point road underdog last season. Illinois is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings and the total has stayed ‘under’ in the last five.
Minnesota should open as a slight favorite this time around, but the Fighting Illini have a good chance of getting an outright win on the road with Hoffarber a bit banged-up. At the very least, they remain a solid pick to cover with the points.
St. Mary's Gaels at Santa Clara
By: Stephen Nover
Only three weeks ago there was talk that Saint Mary’s was better than its Sweet 16 team of last season even without star center Omar Samhan.
There’s no such chatter about that now.
The Gaels are leading the West Coast Conference with an 8-1 mark, but they haven’t been sharp in their last six games.
That could open the door for Santa Clara, 15-10 overall and 5-3 in conference. The Broncos host Saint Mary’s Thursday at 8 p.m. PT.
If the Broncos lose to Saint Mary’s they would fall 3½ games off the lead with only five league games left, thus in all likelihood ending their title hopes.
Saint Mary’s was at its sharpest just before Christmas and going through mid-January when it went 7-0 with an average victory margin of 21.8 points. Some believed the Gaels were better than in 2010 when they upset No. 2 seed Villanova in the NCAA Tournament in the second round before losing to Baylor in the Sweet 16.
Since then, however, the 20-4 Gaels have failed to cover in five of their last six games. Saint Mary’s has been particularly flat in its past three contests getting blown out by Portland, 80-75, as six-point road favorites, getting past Pepperdine, 79-71, as 21-point home ‘chalk’ and defeating Loyola-Marymount, 79-70, as 16 ½-point home favorites.
Matthew Dellavedova scored 23 points to pace Saint Mary’s past Loyola Marymount. Mickey McConnell had 16 points and 10 assists. Dellavedova was just three-of-16 shooting from the floor in his previous two games, scoring a combined 10 points during that span.
The Gaels are 13-0 at home, but 4-3 in true road settings. Saint Mary’s now faces Santa Clara and second place San Francisco also on the road on Saturday. The Broncos are 10-4 at home, 4-5 ATS.
The rise of Santa Clara and San Francisco has given the West Coast Conference a rare sense of parity where before Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s were the only main forces.
Still, if St. Mary’s does win the league title and conference tournament, the possibility is strong that only the Gaels would get an NCAA Tournament berth.
Saint Mary’s is allowing 64.8 points per game. But the Gaels are giving up an average of 77.2 points during their last five games. The ‘over’ has cashed during the Gaels’ last three games.
Santa Clara fell 68-62 to San Francisco this past Saturday as one-point road favorites. The loss halted a five-game winning streak for the Broncos. The combined 130 points went ‘under’ the 141 ½-point total. Santa Clara shot just 33.3 percent from the floor.
Kevin Foster, the conference’s leading scorer at 19 points a game, scored 14 points against San Francisco making only four of 18 shots from the floor. He missed all 10 of his shots from three-point range.
Saint Mary’s held Foster to 15 points on five-of-15 shooting from the floor in the team’s first meeting. The Gaels won 84-59 as 17-point home favorites on Jan. 15. The combined 143 points dipped ‘under’ the 148-point total.
McConnell paced six Gaels in double figures with 18 points in the victory, dominating Santa Clara freshman guard point guard Evan Roquermore.
McConnell is a prime Player of the Year candidate in the WCC ranking third in scoring at 16.3 points per game and first in assists averaging 6.3 per contest.
Another key matchup is Rob Jones, who ranks No. 2 in the conference in rebounding, against Marc Trasolini, who averages 12.3 points and is second in the league in field goal percentage making 57.1 percent of his shots.
College Basketball Knowledge
Florida State is 1-3 on SEC road, losing by 13-18-20 points, with win at Miami by 2; Seminoles won last five games vs Georgia Tech, winning by 2-7ot in last two visits here. Tech's 3rd-leading scorer Oliver (thumb) is out. Jackets lost last three games by 11-2-9 points, scoring 57-56 in last two games. ACC home underdogs of 3 or less points are 1-5 vs spread.
St John's beat UConn 73-51 in Big East tourney LY, after losing seven in row to Huskies before that; last eight series games were all decided by 9 or more points. Big East home teams are 11-7 vs spread in games where spread is 3 or less points. UConn won last three road games. St John's is 3-6 in last nine games, but beat Duke in its last game here.
Michigan State lost five of last six games; they're 0-9 vs spread in its last nine, 1-4 as home favorite- their last four wins are all by or less points. Penn State (+6) upset MSU 66-62 at home Jan 8, as Spartans were just 10-20 from foul line; teams split last four series meetings. Big 11 home favorites of less than 8 points are 14-5-1 against the spread.
Wright State (+4) beat Butler 69-64 Jan 16, ending 7-game series skid vs Butler; Raiders lost last five visits here by 8-31-5-16-12 points. Butler failed to cover last four home games; they're 0-6 vs spread in last six as a favorite. Wright State won last three games, is 4-2 vs spread as Horizon underdog. Horizon home favorites of 9+ points are 7-9 vs spread.
Valparaiso (+2) held Detroit to 38%, forced 18 turnovers in 78-68 road win Jan 16; Titans lost last three regular season visits here, by 3-23-4 points. Horizon home favorites of less than 8 points are 15-9 vs spread. Valpo is 4-1 at home in Horizon, winning by 24-6-17-6 points. Detroit is 1-3 as Horizon road dog, losing away games by 12-5-11 points.
Vanderbilt is 6-3 in its last nine games vs Alabama; Tide lost last three games in this gym, by 14-21-5 points. Alabama won its last five games, allowing 58.2 ppg- they're 3-1 on SEC road with only loss at Arkansas by 5. Commodores are 1-3 as home favorite, winning home games by 7-10-18 points. SEC home favorites of less than 8 points are 5-8.
Washington lost three road games last week, looks to bounce back here vs Cal; Huskies were 13-29 from arc, +13 on boards in 92-71 win (-6.5) Jan 16 in Berkeley, Huskies third win in last four series games. Bears got beat in triple OT last game; they covered last four games as an underdog on road. Double digit favorites are 3-6-1 in Pac-10 games, 3-5-1 at home.
Minnesota won two of last three games vs Illinois, after losing previous 10 series games; average total in last four series games is 103.5. Illini lost five of last seven games, losing last four road games, last two by total of 4 points. Big 11 home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-3-1 vs spread. Gophers scored 62.3 ppg in losing last three games, by 12-3-13 points.
Florida Atlantic is 10-1 in Sun Belt, 5-0 on road, with three wins by 5 or less points; Owls are 3-0 as Sun Belt underdog. Denver lost three of last four games; they're 5-0 at home in Sun Belt (4-1 as home favorite) with home wins by 13-2-9-38-13 points. Favorites are 11-6 vs spread in Sun Belt games where spread is 3 or less points.
Washington State (+2) held Stanford to 34% from floor in 61-58 win at Maples Pavilion Jan 15; Cardinal lost last four visits here, by 13-14-1-4 points. Single digit home favorites are 12-10 vs spread in Pac-10 games. Stanford lost last three road games, by 10-23-11 points. Coogs are 4-1 at home in Pac-10 (3-1 as home favorite), winning by 14-14-17-7 points.
UCLA (-4) won 67-59 at Oregon Jan 15, their 10th win in last 13 series games; when Ducks won 70-68 here LY, it ended 6-game skid in Pauley, with losses by 7-12-17-12-10-26 points. Bruins won seven of last eight games; they're 3-1 as Pac-10 home favorite, winning by 9-2-11-14 pts. Oregon won four of last five games- they're 4-1 as a road underdog.
St Mary's is 14-1 in last 15 games vs Santa Clara, winning four of last five visits here (wins by 7-7-4-8 points); Gaels (-17) shot 62% in 84-59 home win over Broncos Jan 15. Santa Clara won four of last five games; they beat Gonzaga/Portland in last two home games. Gaels won eight of nine in WCC; they failed to cover last four games as a favorite.
Murray State shot 55% from floor, had only 7 turnovers in 92-85 win at Tennessee Tech Jan 15, Racers' 4th series win in row; Tech lost last five visits here, by 4-4-14-21-22 points. Double digit home favorites are 3-11 vs spread in OVC games. Murray won last five OVC games; they're 1-4 as OVC home favorite. Tech is 5-2 on OVC road, 5-1 as road dog.
Thursday Fade Alert
By Bruce Marshall
Here’s a quick look at several "fade" candidates on Thursday’s night’s college hoops card. Teams listed in schedule order for tonight...
Michigan State...There is no argument that things have gone pear-shaped for the Spartans. Now the question is if Tom Izzo can somehow salvage something from what has become a wreck of a season in East Lansing. The raw numbers are troubling enough; five losses in the last six games, and nine consecutive point-spread defeats. One glaring reason why MSU has been stumbling is an inability to defend; the Spartans have recently allowed five straight foes to connect on better than 50% from the floor, including permitting Wisconsin to hit a scorching 59% in the Badgers’ Super Bowl Sunday 82-56 blowout win. Perimeter defense has been especially shoddy, causing Izzo to call out sr. Gs Durrell Summers & Kalin Lucas. This after G Korie Lucious was dismissed from the team in January. One possible change is for Izzo to use bigger lineups and try some zone looks on the stop end that might be able to camouflage the lack of depth on the perimeter. Nothing else seems to be working lately. Tonight: hosts Penn State
Illinois-Chicago...We should qualify this one a bit, because the Flames are not dropping every point-spread decision lately, as is Michigan State. Instead, UIC has actually covered 6 of its last 13 games, although it has lost 12 of those outright. Still, plenty more negatives than positives at the Circle, as the Flames have had trouble stretching enemy defenses while converting the fewest triples pg (4.2) in the Horizon League. Aside from G Robo Kreps, who tends to blow hot and cold beyond the arc (36.8%), no one else is a long-range threat, which tends to limit the space in which UIC can work when Kreps is not connecting. Which has made things difficult for new HC Howard Moore, a former Wisconsin assistant who imported Bo Ryan’s Badger "Swing" offense from Madison. But without enough perimeter marksmen, the Flames’ offense has struggled. And while Moore has also implemented Wisconsin’s man-to-man defensive system, the Flames have not been able to force many turnovers (only 110 of them through 25 games). Tonight: hosts Wisconsin-Green Bay
Louisiana-Monroe...It hasn’t been an easy ride in Monroe for new HC Keith Richard, formerly the boss at La Tech. The Warhawks have lost their last 6 and 10 of their last 12 straight up and have only covered 3 of their last 10 on the board against decidedly modest Sun Belt opposition. Richard has a severe depth problem at Monroe, which has often forced him to keep foul-plagued players on the floor when normal coaching strategy would dictate they take a seat. But that would mean Richard would have to be reaching into a thin bench, which he would like to avoid at all costs.Inconsistent work from the perimeter continues to haunt the Warhawks as well; former Kansas State transfer G Fred "Downtown" Brown is very streaky, and that’s more than can be said for secondary long-range gunners G Hugh "Bingo" Mingo (31.2% beyond arc) and F Lawrence Gilbert (27% treys). ULM has exceeded 67 points just once in its last nine games, making it difficult to outscore anyone. Tonight: hosts Arkansas State
UC Santa Barbara...Most Big West observers expected the Gauchos to successfully defend their conference tourney title and return to the Big Dance (where they lost to Ohio State in the first round a year ago). All starters returned from a year ago, so expectations were high. And maybe UCSB can still return to the Big Dance, but it is burning a hole in the pockets of its backers along the way, dropping its last six spread decisions. Recent back-to-back home losses to Cal State Northridge and Pacific, and a narrow escape at the Thunderdome in overtime vs. UC Davis, last Saturday, confirm the choppy waters in which UCSB now navigates. Coach Bob Williams has been openly critical of his team’s lax defense, which has been torched repeatedly in recent weeks (Pacific hit 10 of 15 triples in the first half alone of the Tigers’ recent win). The recent nail-biter vs. Davis was another indictment of the defense, allowing the Aggies to hit 55% from the floor and hit 11 of 18 from beyond the arc. UCSB still has enough firepower to outscore foe if jr. G Orlando Johnson (20.7) finds a nice groove (as he did when scoring 39 to bail out the Gauchos vs. Davis), but unless that shoddy defense shapes up in a hurry, UCSB will probably continue to offer poor value. Tonight: at UC Riverside
Southern Cal... Are the Trojans tuning out HC Kevin O’Neill? We mention it because it has happened before to the peripatetic O’Neill’s teams at a variety of stops in his long and winding coaching career. The quirky O’Neill can still develop a sound defensive game plan capable of taking opponents out of their offensive rhythm, but too often his teams perform haphazardly on attack. And that’s what seems to be happening to this season’s Trojans, who have seemed to lose their bearings on offense after a series of impressive efforts in December that included shock wins at Texas and Tennessee and a near-upset of Kansas at Lawrence. Fordham transfer G Jio Fontan, who was scoring nearly 15 ppg for a while after becoming eligible in December, has cooled considerably and has been held scoreless in two of the last three games. O’Neill has also moved Fontan to the PG spot in order to take some pressure off 5'7 frosh Maurice Jones. SC’s problems at the moment are on offense, where the Trojans are scoring just 64.5 ppg in Pac-10 play and shooting a conference-worst 61% from the free throw line, underlining the team’s lost confidence in a streak that has seen SC win only 2 of its last 7 games, and cover but one of those. Tonight: hosts Oregon State
Loyola-Marymount...It hasn’t been an easy ride lately for the Lions under wild man HC Max Good, as LMU has lost 7 of its last 8 straight up and dropped 5 of its last 6 and 8 of its last 11 vs. The number. Remember, LMU was picked to finish second in the West Coast Conference, but instead is now ties for the basement in the league after becoming woeful USD’s first conference victim last week. Recurring injuries have been an issue; the latest casualty has been F Drew Viney, who missed the Feb. 5 game vs. Saint Mary’s with a migraine and remains doubtful for this weekend’s action. Good has only played three games this season with all of four of last year’s returning starters available, and has been forced to use 11 different starting combinations along the way. Meanwhile, sr. G Vernon Teel, and all-WCC selection last season when he scored 15.4 ppg, has been held to single digits in six of his last eight games. Good seems to be looking to the future (an act of bravery, perhaps, assuming he will be on the sidelines next season) by starting three true freshmen (G Anthony Ireland and Fs Godwin Okonji and Ayodeji Egbeyemi) within the last week. Good will also be crossing his fingers that his Lions can shoot better than the 27% from the floor they delivered in an earlier 20-point loss to tonight’s foe Gonzaga. Tonight: hosts Gonzaga