Thursday's Tips
By Brian Edwards
**Ole Miss at Mississippi State**
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Mississippi St. (16-7 straight up, 10-8 against the spread) as a 5 ½-point favorite, but most books had the Bulldogs reduced to 4 ½ as of late Wednesday night.
With four losses in its last five games, Rick Stansbury’s team has fallen down to third place in the SEC West with a 4-4 record in SEC action. The Bulldogs came up empty last week in a pair of tough road games at Vanderbilt (75-72) and at Florida (69-62).
Ole Miss (17-6 SU, 12-6-1 ATS) had lost back-to-back games and was trailing Alabama by 20 at intermission in Oxford this past Saturday. Down 40-20 at halftime, the Rebels rallied to not only win but also garner their backers a miraculous push. They eventually won 74-67 win as seven-point home favorites. Chris Warren had a team-high 21 points, while Terrance Henry added 20 points and eight rebounds.
If the season ended today, Ole Miss would probably be invited to the NCAA Tournament. However, the same can’t be said for Mississippi St. The Rebels are 39th in the RPI Rankings, while MSU has dropped to No. 72.
When these teams met at The Tad Pad earlier this season, Mississippi St. captured an 80-75 road win over the Rebels as a 3 ½-point underdog. Dee Bost was the spark for the Bulldogs, exploding for 25 points and six assists. Kodi Augustus chipped in with 13 points and 12 boards. Warren had a team-high 15 points for Ole Miss, but he was only 5-of-17 from the field.
The ‘over’ is 10-2-1 in the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these in-state rivals.
The ‘under’ is 10-8 overall for MSU, but the ‘over’ is 5-1 in its home games at The Hump.
The ‘over’ is 10-8-1 overall for Ole Miss.
Tip-off is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**Saint Mary’s at Gonzaga**
LVSC opened Gonzaga (19-4 SU, 11-8-1 ATS) as an eight-point favorite, but most books had the Bulldogs adjusted to six-point ‘chalk’ by late Wednesday night.
Saint Mary’s (21-3 SU, 15-7 ATS) has won six in a row since losing at home to Gonzaga. The Gaels are just 3-3 ATS during their winning streak, but they have covered the number in both road assignments, blowout wins at Loyola-Marymount (85-67) and at Pepperdine (87-71).
Randy Bennett’s team can retain sole possession of first place in the WCC with a win here. The Gaels, who have an RPI of 44 this week, are 8-1 in league play. Meanwhile, Mark Few’s squad is 7-1 against WCC foes. A win would give the Gaels a 1 ½-game advantage over the Bulldogs.
Gonzaga bounced back from a stunning overtime loss at San Francisco two Saturday ago to thump Portland before going to Memphis and emerging victorious. The Bulldogs punished the Pilots 76-49 last Thursday as nine-point home favorites. Matt Bouldin had a team-high 20 points in the win.
Bouldin was also the catalyst in Saturday’s 66-58 win at Memphis with the ‘Zags catching 4 ½ points. They hooked up money-line backers with a generous plus-180 return (paid $175 on $100 wagers). Bouldin had 19 points against the Tigers.
Saint Mary’s is coming off Saturday’s 73-57 win over San Francisco as a 16 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ Omar Samhan dominated the Dons, finishing with 24 points, 10 rebounds and seven blocked shots. All five SM’s starters scored in double figures including Matthew Dellavedova, who had 11 points, seven assists, six rebounds and two steals.
The ‘over’ is 14-6 overall for Gonzaga, 6-1 in its home games. However, the ‘under’ has cashed in three of the Bulldogs’ last four outings (regardless of venue).
Saint Mary’s has seen the ‘under’ prevail in three straight games, but the ‘over’ is 13-7-1 overall for the Gaels.
ESPN2 will have television coverage at 11:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Memphis senior center Pierre Henderson-Niles has left the program in what first-year head coach Josh Pastner has termed a “mutual” parting of ways. Henderson-Niles was averaging 5.2 points and 5.2 rebounds per game and had started 16 of 23 games for the Tigers. However, his minutes had decreased in recent weeks. Memphis played without Henderson-Niles for the first time last night, beating UCF 76-70. The Golden Knights easily took the money as 16 ½-point road underdogs.
Indiana had covered the spread in four straight double-digit underdog spots until Wednesday’s 69-52 home loss to Oho St. as a 10 ½-point ‘dog.
Wednesday’s Biggest Losers:
1-Northwestern
2-Florida
3-Charlotte
4-Rhode Island
5-FSU
UF was an abysmal 10-of-23 from the charity stripe in last night’s 77-71 loss at South Carolina as a two-point road underdog. The Gators committed 20 turnovers in falling to 6-4 in SEC play. The Gamecocks kept their slim at-large hopes alive with the victory.
Northwestern suffered a huge loss last night at Iowa (RPI of 193), going down 78-65 as a three-point road favorite. The loss drops the Wildcats to 5-7 in Big Ten play. They have a monster home game Sunday vs. Minnesota.
I see three mid-majors capable of making surprise runs to the Sweet 16, and possibly beyond: Cornell, Siena and Richmond.
Speaking of the Spiders, they went into Rhode Island last night and won by a 69-67 count. The Rams, with an RPI of 14, had previously only lost once at home (to Temple).
vegasinsider.com
NCAAB News and Notes
Thursday, February 11
Information on the best of Thursday's college basketball games........
Michigan is 7-3 in last ten games against Minnesota, winning three of its last four visits here, but Wolverines lost five of last six games, scoring an average of 48 ppg in last two. Michigan is 3-1 as Big 11 road underdog. Gophers are 2-4 in last six games (0-6 vs spread); they're 1-3 as a Big 11 home favorite- four of their last five games were won by 4 or less points.
Notre Dame won its last six games vs Seton Hall, winning last three here by 1-11-26 points; Irish are 1-4 on Big East road, losing by 12-2-1-18 points (1-2 as road underdog). Seton Hall won last three home games, by 7-3-3 points, but this is their first home game in 18 days; they're 2-1 as Big East home favorite. Big East home faves of 7 or less points: 10-14.
Louisville won last four games vs St John's by 24-10-13-7 points; they beat Red Storm 75-68 Jan 9 (-11), grabbing 19 offensive boards, making 20-30 from foul line (St John's was 9-14). Big East home underdogs of less than 8 points are 4-11 vs spread this season. Cardinals lost three in a row on road. St John's lost last five games, by 16-10-10-12-19 points.
Detroit (+3) lost 74-72 at Green Bay Jan 16, despite shooting 57% for night; Titans lost four of last six games, but are 4-1 as Horizon favorite at home, winning at Callahan by 3-7-10-11-20 points. Green Bay is 1-3 as Horizon road dog, losing away games by 23-20-14 points. Horizon League home favorites of 7 or less points are 9-12 against the spread.
Western Kentucky lost seven of last nine games; they're 4-3 as Sun Belt home favorite, winning in Diddle Arena by 12-7-17-20-18 points- they lost at home to Middle Tennessee/North Texas. Arkansas State is 8-2 in last ten games, 4-3 on Sun Belt road, losing by 9 at Denver, 15 at FAU, 2 at Little Rock. Sun Belt home favorites of 9+ points are 13-7.
Washington is 0-6 outside of Seattle this year, losing Pac-10 road games by 17-17-1-26 points (0-2 as road underdog). Cal (+2.5) lost 84-69 in Seattle Jan 16, despite going 32-50 on foul line- they shot 33%, turned ball over 21 times. Cal is 2-3 as Pac-10 home favorite, winning at home by 26-8-32-4 points. Pac-10 home faves of 5 or less points: 12-7.
Mississippi State (+2) won 80-75 at Ole Miss Jan 9, making 10-22 on arc, 22-33 on foul line (Rebels were 8-13 at stripe); but Bulldogs are 1-4 in last five games, losing by 5-5-3-7 points. State is 1-3 as SEC favorite. Ole Miss is 4-1 vs spread on SEC road, 2-0 as road dog, losing by hoop at Tennessee, 10 at Kentucky. SEC home favorites of 6 or less: 6-11.
Stanford (+6) lost 77-73 in Pullman Jan 16 after trailing by 20 at half-- Cardinal is 4-0 at home in Pac-10, winning by 1-11-24-15 points (3-0-1 as Pac-10 home favorite). Washington State is 2-3 as Pac-10 road dog, losing away games by 25-12-28 points, winning at Arizona/USC. Home faves in Pac-10 are 20-23. Stanford lost its last four games overall.
Fresno State (+2.5) lost 86-77 at New Mexico State Jan 16, after leading by 9 at half; Bulldogs lost five of last seven games, but are 4-1 at home in WAC, losing only to Utah State- they've won at home by 3-14-10-10 points. Aggies won seven of last eight games, are 4-1 on WAC road, but they had tough game at home Monday. Fresno last played on Saturday.
Arizona (+5.5) won 74-60 at Oregon Jan 16, holding Ducks to 33% for night, while outscoring them 27-17 from line; Wildcats are 1-1 as Pac-10 home favorite, winning home games by 17-8-4 points (lost at home to Wazzu). Oregon lost six of last eight games, dropping last three on road by 32-15-20 points. Arizona covered seven of its last eight games.
Gonzaga (+4.5) won 89-82 at St Mary's Jan 14, making 59.7% of shots; Bulldogs are 1-4 vs spread in last five league games, 1-2 as home favorite winning by 7-16-27 points at home. St Mary's won last six games; they are 4-0 on WCC road, but lost last six games here by 14-5-1-11-12 and 7 points. WCC home favorites of 7 or less points are 2-5 against spread.
Appalachian State (+8) won 78-68 at Davidson Jan 9, making 53% of shots, outscoring Wildcats 21-9 from foul line. State won four of its last five games, winning last three home games by 24-8-13 points. Davidson won last four games; they're 3-2 on SoCon road, but lost by 12-6 points two times they were dog. SoCon home faves of 4 or less points: 5-7.
Tennessee Tech (+18) lost 88-66 at Murray State Jan 16, despite 52.2% shooting; Tech won last four home games- they're 3-5 vs spread as OVC underdog. Murray State is 13-0 in OVC, 4-1 as road favorite, winning on foreign soil by 21-16-9-19-32 points. Racers are 6-3-1 against spread as double digit favorite- the rest of the OVC is 8-8 (14-11-1 total).
West Coast Conference clash has bettors intrigued
Doug Upstone
One of the most overused words in sports today is- adversity. The moment that struck everyone that this particular word was being taken too conveniently to describe too broad a subject matter was when Tom Brady said his New England Patriots has overcome a lot of adversity in putting together 18-0 record after his team had just won the 2008 AFC championship on the way to playing the New York Giants in the Super Bowl. As it turned out Brady did face real adversity the following season, blowing out his knee and coming back to play this past season.
Instead of adversity, lets start a new word for sports speak, resiliency. Gonzaga (19-4, 11-8-1 ATS) started the season with two very good guards, a potentially outstanding freshman forward and their usual rugged schedule. The Bulldogs exceeded early season expectations and quickly grew as a team under the leadership of coach Mark Few and established they would still be the favorite in the West Coast Conference.
After plowing thru the first part of the WCC slate, at the end of January, Gonzaga trailed by 14 points in the second half to last place Santa Clara, before winning 71-64 as 12-point favorites. Two nights later, at San Francisco, no such luck as they lost to the Dons 81-77 to fall into first place tie with St. Marys.
The Zags didnt take the defeat lightly and pounded Portland 76-49 at home next, but less than 48 hours later they had a date with Memphis at their place. It turns out this contest was the top play in most forums that day; play against Gonzaga with the five points by professionals and amateurs alike.
What focus the Bulldogs had lost, it was back like a HD picture and they upset Memphis 66-58. Seniors Matt Bouldin and Steven Gray exhibited leadership and dragged the younger players back to playing 40 minutes of basketball, which they did against the Tigers. Gonzaga is 10-0 and 7-2 ATS this season off a spread cover and showed ample resiliency.
Saint Marys (21-3, 16-6-1 ATS) has just one loss in the West Coast Conference and it was to Gonzaga 89-82, in which the team collectively felt they placed too much pressure on themselves to play perfectly. The Gaels have been buoyed by that fact and have also shown resiliency, as they have come right back and played the same kind of basketball they had all year, winning six straight (3-2-1 ATS). The St. Marys players, led by center Omar Samhan, know this is their chance to take control of WCC and they are 8-0 and 7-1 ATS in road games this season.
Betonline.com has the Gaels as six-point underdogs since they have lost 13 in a row at Gonzaga, though been competitive in covering six times. St. Marys is 10-2 and 9-3 ATS playing with three or more days rest and has to hope their three freshmen are more settled this time around. A loss sets up a very negative state of affair for the Gaels, who have to play Saturday against an improved Portland squad and one loss could easily turn into two.
Gonzaga has covered their last six contests vs. teams with .600 or better records and would love to see the athletic Elias Harris match his last effort against St. Marys where he scored 31 points. The Zags are often a top heavy home favorite and are 2-4 ATS at the McCarthey Athletic Center, in spite of 8-1 record. Since last season, they are 1-7 ATS at home playing teams with a winning record.
This WCC tilt is on ESPN2 starting at 8:00 Pacific and one factor every bettor has to think about is Gonzagas 66.1 free throw percentage, dead last in the conference for accuracy.