Thursday's Best NCAAB Bet
UCLA Bruins at Stanford Cardinal (-1.5, 129)
No team in the Pac 10 is crashing the boards like UCLA. The Bruins have out-rebounded their past 10 opponents and during that stretch the team is a staggering 9-1 SU and 6-3-1 ATS. The recipe for success for UCLA is simple: grab rebounds to grab wins.
Sophomore forwards Tyler Honeycutt and Reeves Nelson have been two of the team’s biggest pillars in the paint. Over the team’s past five games—all wins—the duo is are combining to average nearly 20 caroms per contest.
"Honeycutt and Reeves in particular have been really consistent on the glass, and they're two of the best in the league," said UCLA coach Ben Howland. "That's a huge factor going forward."
Stanford, meanwhile, is coming off an 11-point defeat at Washington and has lost six of its past 10 games. Over that stretch, the team has failed to grab more than 30 rebounds five times. The Cardinal also haven’t been very successful against the Bruins lately. UCLA has won seven of the past eight meetings and is 4-3-1 ATS over that span.
“We’ve got to continue to get better,” Stanford coach Johnny Dawkins said.
The Cardinal will get better—just not against the Bruins.
Pick: UCLA
Temple, Richmond top Thursday NCAA betting
By: Willie Bee
A trio of teams ruled the Atlantic 10 last season, eventually punching tickets to the Big Dance. The same three are on top of the conference standings once again, Xavier's 9-1 mark leading the way. Duquesne, the top A-10 team according to Ken Pomeroy, is trying to push its way into the role of party crasher with an 8-2 conference record that is currently fourth.
Between those two are the Temple Owls and Richmond Spiders, the two squads who eventually met for the 2010 A-10 Championship. Each school owns a 9-2 conference mark, and they'll break that tie Thursday night at Liacouras Center in Philadelphia (4 p.m. PT, CBS College Sports).
Both coaches bring their teams into the matchup running hot. Fran Dunphy and Temple (19-5 straight up, 14-10 against the spread) have come home victorious in their last six, an even 3-3 at the window. A 5-seed in last year's NCAA Tournament, the Owls have been hanging around at the bottom of the AP rankings the past two weeks and broke in at No. 25 in the latest coaches poll.
Chris Mooney's Spiders have won seven of their last eight, the lone defeat a poor 85-62 home effort against Xavier near the end of January. Seeded seventh in the South Regional a year ago, Richmond (20-6 SU, 12-11 ATS) is 10-3 away from home this season and has won all five of its A-10 road contests.
Richmond's most recent outing made both Spiders fans and bettors happy, a 64-52 home win over Saint Louis as 9½-point chalk. Six-ten senior Justin Harper led the way with a most effective 30 minutes of action. The team's leading scorer (18.0 ppg) was 7-of-9 from the field, 3-of-5 from outside, blocked four shots and grabbed nine rebounds in leading the Spiders with 22 points.
Harper could be primed for another big night if Temple has to play without Lavoy Allen. The 6-foot-9 senior missed the Owls' 75-63 win at Dayton last Saturday with an ankle injury and is questionable again for Thursday.
Ramone Moore stepped up big time for Temple in the victory over the Flyers. The local kid pasted a game-best 26 on his stats sheet, 11-of-13 from the line, and added nine rebounds. The Owls were three-point road favorites and it marked their third consecutive 'over' (131½).
It's been about 362 days since the teams last met, a 56-52 Temple win in the conference title tilt at Atlantic City. That contest pushed and stayed below the 116-point line. Richmond won and covered as two-point chalk in the regular season meeting at home, 71-54 (116½).
A lot of the same players yet different teams this year with scoring up on both ends of the court in their games. The Spiders are 11-9 'over' for the campaign, Temple 13-8. In addition to winning its last five on the A-10 highway, Richmond's conference games are 4-1 to the high side with the Owls' last five conference home tilts 4-1 'over.'
If Lavoy is out for Temple – and all signs point to that – expect Dunphy to try and slow things down a bit. He used just six players for 195 of the 200 court minutes in the win at Dayton and any early foul trouble for Michael Eric would be a huge setback since he's the biggest body to put on Richmond's Harper.
Temple could struggle to reach the low-to-mid 60s on their own unless someone like Juan Fernandez gets smoking hot from outside, something he hasn't done for the Owls so far this season. I'm liking a final score in the mid-to-upper 120s.
Temple will take a couple of days off following this game to prepare for Sunday's home tilt versus Saint Joseph's. The Spiders will return home to host St. Bonaventure the same day.
Arizona Wildcats host Cougars
By: David Schwab
The Washington State Cougars look to avenge a previous two-point loss when they tangle with the Arizona Wildcats this Thursday night for the second time in less than a month. This PAC-10 matchup from the McKale Center in Tucson tips off at 5:30 p.m. (PT). The game will be broadcast nationally on the FOX Sports Network.
Since losing to the Wildcats 65-63 on Jan.22 as a 2½-point home favorite, Washington State has been unable to gain any momentum in the conference with three wins and two losses in its last five games. The Cougars are coming off a 75-71 victory over California this past Saturday as a 6½-point home favorite, but they lost to Stanford 75-62 as an 8½-point home favorite last Thursday.
Washington State is now 17-8 straight-up overall and 13-9-1 against the spread. It is 3 ½-games behind Arizona with a 7-6 SU record in PAC-10 play.
Junior guard Klay Thompson has been the primary force for the Cougars this season with 20.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.2 assists a game. The supporting cast consists of junior forward DeAngelo Casto, who leads the team in rebounds with 6.4 a game and is averaging 11.2 points and junior guard Faisal Aden, who is second in scoring with 13.3 points a game.
Washington State is shooting 46.5 percent from the field and averaging 73 points a game. The Cougars are converting on 35.4 percent of their shots from three-point range and 69.5 percent of them from the foul line. They are ranked 192nd in the nation in rebounds with an average of just 34.8 a game.
Arizona continues to roll toward tournament time with nine victories in its last 10 games including a thrilling a 3OT 107-105 win over Cal on Feb.5 as a two-point road favorite and a 67-52 rout of Arizona State as a 4 ½-point road favorite this past Sunday. The Wildcats are 21-4 SU overall (14-8-1 ATS) and lead UCLA by one gamein the conference with a record of 10-2 SU.
The big man for Arizona this season has been sophomore forward Derrick Williams, who leads the team with 19.2 points and eight rebounds a game. Another sophomore, Lamont Jones is averaging 9.4 points and junior guard Kyle Fogg is averaging 8.6 points a game, but the continued success of this team lies squarely on William’s shoulders.
The Wildcats are averaging 78 points a game but have also been weak under the boards with just 35 rebounds a game. They are shooting 48.1 percent from the field and 40.8 percent from three-point range. Arizona has been especially effective from the free-throw line; converting on 74.4 percent of its attempts.
Washington State is 2-2 ATS in its last four games on the road and 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of its last five games.
Arizona is 2-3 ATS in its last five games at home but 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of its last five games.
Head-to-head, the Wildcats have won four if the last seven games SU including the two-point win earlier this season. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of the last four games.
This time around Arizona should open as a four or five point favorite at home and as long as the line does not creep up any higher than that, remain a solid pick to complete the season sweep and cover the spread.
Thursday's CBB Tips
VegasInsider.com
Let’s begin our discussion of tonight’s card with a Big Ten showdown between Minnesota and Penn State in Happy Valley.
Minnesota (17-8 straight up, 11-14 against the spread) had lost four in a row both SU and ATS until going into Iowa City on Sunday and thumping the Hawkeyes by a 62-45 count as a 1½-point road favorite. Trevor Mbakwe was the catalyst in the win at Iowa, scoring a game-high 24 points.
Penn St. (13-11 SU, 10-9-1 ATS) also broke out of a funk of its own Sunday, ending a three-game slide both SU and ATS by trouncing Northwestern 65-41 as a two-point home ‘chalk.’ Talor Battle made 7-of-9 shots from the field en route to a game-high 19 points.
Ed DeChellis’s team has played its best basketball at home, compiling a 12-4 SU record to go with a 7-4-1 ATS mark. The ‘under’ is 12-8 overall for PSU, 9-3 in its home games.
As of early this morning, most books were listing PSU as a 2½ point favorite with a total of 127 1/2. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
During the same time slot on ESPN2, North Carolina State will take on Clemson in Raleigh. The Wynn opened the Tigers as one-point favorites, but most books had them favored by 2 1/2 with a total of 132 1/2 early this morning.
Clemson (17-8 SU, 9-11-1 ATS) has won four of its last six games with both losses coming by four combined points, including Saturday’s 64-62 home loss to North Carolina as a two-point home favorite. In the losing effort, Demontez Stitt had 17 points, seven rebounds and three assists.
Time appears to be running out on the Sidney Lowe Era. Although the starting point guard on the 1983 national championship team (other four starters: Derrick Whittenberg, Thurl Bailey, Lorenzo Charles and Cozell McQueen; sixth man: Terry Gannon) has recruited well, the results simply haven’t been there on the court.
North Carolina State (13-11 SU, 8-12 ATS) has lost seven of its last nine games, although it did end an eight-game ATS losing streak in Sunday’s 80-55 win over Wake Forest as a 5 ½-point home favorite. Tracy Smith had 20 points and eight rebounds against the Demon Deacons, while C.J. Leslie added 19 points and eight boards.
When these ACC rivals met at Littlejohn Coliseum on Jan. 25, Clemson captured a 60-50 triumph as an eight-point home favorite. Stitt had 17 points, seven rebounds and four assists, while Jerai Grant produced a double-double with 14 points,11 boards and four blocked shots.
The ‘under’ is 13-8 overall for Clemson, cashing in five of its last six games.
Alabama is in first place in the SEC West, but that isn’t saying much this season. The Crimson Tide owns an 8-2 record in league play, leaving it four games ahead of the pack on the weak side of the conference.
LSU and Auburn are two of the SEC’s worst teams in the last quarter-century. The Bayou Bengals, 10-15 SU and 9-10-1 ATS, will take an 8-7 home record into tonight’s tilt against the Tide. They are 2-8 in SEC play.
When these teams met at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa on Jan. 29, Alabama (16-8 SU, 11-9 ATS) cruised to a 70-46 win as a 13 ½-point home favorite. JaMychal Green had 20 points and seven rebounds in just 23 minutes of playing time.
Anthony Grant’s squad has won 11 of its last 13 games, posting a 10-2 spread record in the process. The Tide is coming off a 74-64 win Saturday over Ole Miss as a 6 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ Green led the way with 15 points, six blocked shots, five rebounds and three steals.
The ‘under’ has cashed in five straight head-to-head meetings between these programs. Also, the 'under' has been an extremely lucrative investment in LSU games this year, going 15-5 overall and 8-2 in its home games.
As of early this morning, most books had ‘Bama favored by 9½ with a total of 121.
The last late-night option for gamblers is UCLA at Stanford. Fox Sports Net will provide television coverage at 10:30 p.m. Eastern.
As of early this morning, most spots had Stanford (13-11 SU, 11-11 ATS) as a one-point favorite with a total of 129. The Cardinal has won three of its last five games, going 4-1 ATS in the process. It is coming off Saturday’s 87-76 loss at Washington as a 14-point underdog.
Stanford is 10-3 SU and 7-4 ATS at home. The ‘under’ is 12-9-1 overall for the Cardinal, 6-4-1 in its home outings.
UCLA (18-7 SU, 11-13-1 ATS) is on fire with five straight wins and victories in nine of its last 10 games. The Bruins are coming off a 69-61 non-covering win Saturday over Oregon St., which took the money as a 12-point road underdog at Pauley Pavilion.
UCLA's Malcolm Lee scored a team-high 19 points in the win over the Beavers. Lee has scored in double figures in seven consecutive games.
The ‘over’ has hit in four straight games for Stanford, but the ‘under’ is in the midst of a 4-0 roll for UCLA.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Minnesota is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games at Penn St. The ‘over’ is on a 6-1 run in the last seven head-to-head meetings between the Lions and Gophers.
Georgia appears to be slipping and its chances of earning an at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament took a major hit last night. The Dawgs led Vandy by double digits in the second half, but they didn’t hit a shot from the field in the final 10 minutes. The Commodores rallied to collect a 64-56 win as three-point underdogs at Stegeman Coliseum.
Xavier continues to dominate its A-10 competition, punishing St. Joe’s by 20 as an eight-point road favorite last night. I gave the Muskateers heavy consideration for my pick pack but decided not to pull the trigger unfortunately. Like I’ve been saying for weeks, there’s not a better point guard in America than Tu Holloway (As good? Maybe. Better? No way!).
Wisconsin fell into a classic letdown spot last night after beating top-ranked Ohio St. on Saturday. We said as much in this space yesterday and backed Purdue for a winner in last night’s 70-62 win over the Badgers.
Michigan had two potential game-winning 3-pointers on its last possession, but both fell off the mark in a 54-52 loss at Illinois. Nevertheless, the Wolverines hooked up their backers as 9½-point underdogs. They are now 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
UCF finally ended its 10-game ATS losing streak in last night’s 65-62 win at Tulane as a 1½-point road ‘chalk.’
The biggest upset on Wednesday's board was the final game played. San Diego stunned Saint Mary's 74-66 as a 17-point home underdog. The Toreros' shocking victory hooked up money-line backers with a 13/1 payout (risk $100 to win $1,300) at the Las Vegas Hilton.
vegasinsider.com.
College Basketball Knowledge
Minnesota is down to 8 scholarship players; they lost four of last five games, are 2-5 on road in Big 11, winning at Michigan/Iowa. Penn State lost three of last four games, but they're 5-2 at home in Big 11. Gophers won 11 of last 12 games vs Penn State, beating Lions three times LY, by 5-2-21 points. Big 11 home faves of less than 4 points are 7-3-1.
Richmond won its last four games, is 5-0 on road in A-14, covering only game as dog. Temple won five of last seven games vs Richmond, winning by 4 in final of A-14 tourney LY; Spiders lost last two visits here by 39-9 points. Temple won last six games, but is just 2-3 as A-14 home fave. A-14 home favorites of 5+ points are just 13-22 against the spread.
Favorites are 9-1 vs spread in NC State's ACC games; Wolfpack is 0-6 as an ACC underdog. Clemson (-7) beat NC State 60-50 at home Jan 26, after being down 17 earlier in the game; they're 6-1 in last seven games vs Wolfpack, losing by hoop to State in ACC tourney LY. Home dogs of 3 or less points are 2-7 against the spread in ACC games this season.
UL-Lafayette won its last seven games after starting season 3-14; they lost 74-65 (+10.5) at Arkansas State- Cajun starters shot just 33% from floor. ASU won its last four games, with wins at Ark-Little Rock and UL-Monroe. ULL won four of its five Sun Belt home games. Sun Belt home favorites of 3 or less points are 8-6 vs spread.
Troy (+7.5) lost 63-51 at Middle Tennessee Jan 20, game that started MT on current 7-1 run; Blue Raiders made 9-20 from arc, held Troy to 32.7% from floor. Trojans won three of last four games, with underdogs covering their last five. Sun Belt home underdogs of 3 or less points are 2-6 vs spread. Raiders won last five games, by 9-6-23-9-12 points.
Arizona (+2.5) won 65-63 at Washington State Jan 22, making 11-18 on arc, just 10-39 inside it; Coogs won three of last four series games, split last four visits here, with losses by 12-10 points. Pac-10 home favorites of 7+ points are 11-15-1 vs spread. Wazzu is 2-4 on Pac-10 road, with losses by 9-4-7ot-26 points away from home.
Washington (-18) beat Arizona State 88-75 Ian 22, its 15th win in last 18 series games; Huskies won six of last seven visits here, losing 68-51 LY. ASU lost its last 10 games; they're 0-5 at home in conference, with losses by 14-4-2-1-15 points. Pac-10 home underdogs are 12-9-1 vs the spread this season. Huskies lost their last three road games.
Alabama (-14) thrashed LSU 70-46 Jan 29, its third straight win against LSU and 8th in last 10 meetings; Tide is 2-3 in last five visits to Baton Rouge. Bama is 6-1 in last seven games overall, covering last five; only one of their last four road games were decided by more than five points. SEC home underdogs of 5+ points are 6-2-1 against spread. LSU lost its last eight games, going 1-6-1 vs spread.
Northwestern (even) won 90-71 at Iowa Jan 12, making 14-28 from arc, but Wildcats have now lost five of last six games- their last two games at home were both decided by a point. Iowa is 2-4 as Big 11 road dog, with losses by 23-10-22-14-14 points, and 64-63 win at Indiana. Single digit home favorites are 23-11-1 against the spread in Big 11 this year.
Providence is 3-9 in Big East, but they did win last three games at home, by 7-15-5 points; Friars are 0-2 as Big East favorite- they allowed 75+ points in last seven wins, 68 or less in last three wins. Double digit home favorites are 9-13 vs spread in Big East this season. DePaul is 0-12 in its Big East games, losing on road by 16-11-30-11-4-11 (4-2 as road dog).
Cal is 4-2 at home in Pac-10, but Bears lost last three games, by 2-32-4 points. Cal (+7.5) won 68-66 at USC Jan 22, first road win in last eight series games; Trojans lost last three visits to Berkeley by 10-3-8 points. Pac-10 home favorites of 6 or less points are 5-6 vs spread. USC is 1-4 on Pac-10 road, with losses by 6-4-9-14 points (won by 2 at ASU).
UCLA (-7) beat Stanford 68-57 Jan 22, holding Cardinal to 30.8% from floor, outscoring them 25-10 on foul line; Bruins won eight of last ten in series, are 3-2 in last five visits here, losing by 11 LY. Stanford is 4-3 at home in Pac-10. UCLA won its last five games, by 1-14-7-10-8 points. Hosts are 8-6-1 in Pac-10 games where spread is less than 4 points.
Charleston (-19) beat Citadel 87-66 at home Jan 15, making 13-31 from arc; underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in its Southern Conference home games, with Cougars 1-3 as road favorite, winning by 4-4-4-18 points on road. Citadel lost last four games by 4-14-12-7 points; they're 4-7 vs spread as SoCon dog. SoCon home underdogs of 6+ points are 7-4 vs spread.
Thursday's Totals to Watch
By Bruce Marshall
It seems to happen like clockwork in college hoops; numerous team "totals" trends endure for several weeks or even months. Indeed, they’re often more-pronounced than team pointspread streaks, and the 2010-11 campaign has been no different.
Following is a look at some of the more-prominent "over" and "under" trends on display for Thursday night’s college card...
Richmond at Temple...Fran Dunphy’s Owls are "over" 6-2-1 their last nine "totals" decisions.
Clemson at North Carolina State...The Tigers are "under" 4 of their last 5 outings.
Arkansas State at Louisiana-Lafayette...The Ragin’ Cajuns are "under" in their last four games.
South Alabama at North Texas...The not-so Mean Green are "over" 9-1-1 their last 11 "totals" decisions.
Western Kentucky at Arkansas-Little Rock...Despite going "under" in their last two games, the UALR Trojans are still "over" 10-2 their last 12 decisions.
Washington State at Arizona...Arizona trending "over"(4-0 last four) the last few weeks.
Washington at Arizona State...Both of these trending similarly in recent weeks, with the Huskies "over" 5-1 their last six and the Sun Devils "over" 5-2 their last seven.
Alabama at LSU...With LSU struggling so badly on the offensive end, it’s no wonder the Tigers are "under" 10-1 in their last 11 this season.
UL-Monroe at Denver...Conflicting trends, with the Warhawks "over" 10-3 in their last 13, while the host Pioneers are "under" 5 of their last 7.
Iowa at Northwestern...Note how the Hawkeyes have gone "under" in 7 of their last 9 games.
DePaul at Providence...The Blue Demons have been involved in some lively games lately, resulting in 6 "overs" in their last 8 outings.
Santa Clara at Gonzaga...Although these two blew way "over" in their game at the Leavey Center last month, both definitely trending "under" more often lately (Broncos "under" 7 of last 9, Zags "under" 5 of last 6 and 16 of last 21 this season).
San Francisco at Portland...It could be the early stages of an "over" trend for Portland (Pilots "over" their last three).
Southern Cal at California...Conflicting trends; SC "under" 11 of last 16, while Golden Bears "over" 10-2-1 their last 13.
UCLA at Stanford...More conflicting trends, with UCLA "under" 11 of its last 15 and Stanford "over" its last four.