Thursday's Best NBA Bet
Georgia Bulldogs at Florida Gators (-5.5)
The Bulldogs should call themselves “The Fighting Mad Max’s,” because they truly are road warriors.
Georgia is an outstanding, 7-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in lined away games this season. The seven road wins are the most for the Bulldogs in 16 years.
“In order to have success on the road, it is truly because you have good players – guys who have bought in,” Georgia coach Mark Fox said. “And that is the reason this year, too."
Another key for the Road Dawgs is the team’s outstanding defense. While the team’s shot comes and goes, opponents are averaging a mere 65.5 point per game this season, the 108th best mark in the country. Even better, teams are making a lowly 39.8 percent of their jumpers, 26th best nationally.
And the Gators have been far from dominant at home this season. The team is a solid 12-3 SU on its own floor, but a pathetic 3-9 ATS in lined games. In fact, just seven of those 12 home victories have come by more than six points.
Florida also could take a big hit to its front court depth. Senior forward Chandler Parsons averages 10.8 points, 7.7 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game this year, but has been out with a hip injury for nearly two weeks. His status is questionable against Georgia.
Pick: Georgia
Pittsburgh hosts West Virginia
By: Stephen Nover
West Virginia made the Final Four last season and probably is one of the 35 best college basketball teams this season.
Unfortunately for the Mountaineers they are tied for eighth place in the brutal Big East Conference with an 8-6 mark, 17-9 overall. Only three of the Mountaineers’ nine defeats have been to teams outside of the Big East.
Now the Mountaineers face Big East leader Pittsburgh in another renewal of a rivalry nicknamed “The Backyard Brawl.” The fourth-ranked Panthers host West Virginia at Petersen Events Center Thursday at 6 p.m. PT. The game will be televised by ESPN.
The Mountaineers usually fare well on ESPN having won 20 of the 25 games televised by the network, going 8-1 the past nine times they’ve been on.
Pittsburgh has lost only once in 16 home games this season. The Panthers are 24-3 and lead the Big East with a 12-2 mark.
The Panthers sure have the look of being a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons.
Pittsburgh entered the beginning of this week two games ahead of Notre Dame in the Big East. The Panthers rated 28th in the nation defensively holding foes to 61.3 points per game, including 57.7 points during the last eight games.
The Panthers rank 36th in scoring, averaging 75.6 points a contest. In Big East competition the Panthers ise in the top four in scoring, scoring defense, scoring margin, field goal percentage, field goal percentage defense, 3-point percentage, rebounding, assists and assist-turnover margin.
St. John’s edged Pittsburgh, 60-59, this past Saturday in the Panthers’ last game. Pittsburgh failed to cover as 4 ½-point road favorites at Madison Square Garden. The combined 119 points went ‘under’ the 134½-point total.
There was good news, though, for the Panthers as star guard Ashton Gibbs played for the first time in four games. He scored a career-high 26 points against St. John’s.
Gibbs leads the Panthers in scoring at 16.7 points a game. He is shooting 47.3 percent from beyond the arc. The rest of Pittsburgh’s players are shooting a combined 32.4 percent from three-point range.
Gibbs had missed the previous three games with an MCL injury. The Panthers still beat West Virginia, Villanova and South Florida while Gibbs was out but made only six-of-29 (20 percent) 3-pointers during this span while averaging 65 points per contest down 11.2 points from their season average.
The Panthers lead the Big East in three-point percentage at 38.3 percent.
Pittsburgh defeated West Virginia, 71-66, four games ago on Feb. 7 as a ‘pick.’ The combined 137 points went ‘over’ the 128 ½-point total.
West Virginia center Deniz Kilicili made nine of 13 shots from the field scoring a career-high 19 points in the loss. The Panthers, minus Gibbs in that game, limited the Mountaineers’ leading scorer, Casey Mitchell, to seven points. Pittsburgh had a 37-22 rebounding edge.
The Mountaineers nearly swept Pittsburgh last season winning 70-51 at home as 10-point favorites and losing 98-95 in overtime as 2 ½-point road favorites.
West Virginia defeated Notre Dame, 72-58, this past Saturday as four-point home favorites halting the Irish’s seven-game winning streak. The combined 130 points just dipped ‘under’ the 131-point total.
Darryl Bryant scored 24 points to lead the Mountaineers. Bryant had averaged just six points during his last five games. Joe Mazzulla, Bryant’s backcourt mate, scored 17 points with seven assists and five rebounds.
The ‘over’ has cashed in eight of Pittsburgh’s last 11 home games. The ‘under’ has cashed in seven of West Virginia’s past nine road contests.
NCAA Betting: Gonzaga at St Mary's
By: Willie Bee
It could be the last chance for the Gonzaga Bulldogs to earn a place in the NCAA Tournament. A loss, even on the road against a tough team like the St. Mary's Gaels, could spell doom for Mark Few's team and its 12-year dance streak.
There's still the West Coast Conference Tournament at Las Vegas' Orleans Arena to come if the 'Zags don't win this one, but any thought of continuing the tournament run as an at-large bid goes out the window if the Bulldogs come up short. Even a win doesn't guarantee Gonzaga (19-9 straight up, 13-11 against the spread) will get in without winning the WCC tourney.
The Bulldogs have played a decent schedule, though the results aren't much to write home about. Another win here or there, especially during a 2-5 stretch in November-December, would have Gonzaga in much better shape. Neutral site defeats to Kansas State and Illinois plus a home loss to San Diego State are going to draw the attention of the selection committee, as will an 0-3 stretch in late-January, all as favorites in the 4-10 point range.
Included in that January skid was a 73-72 loss to these Gaels. Chalked four points on their home court Jan. 27, the 'Zags let one slip through their hands as St. Mary's rallied from a nine-point deficit to a 73-71 triumph.
Mickey McConnell starred for St. Mary's in that one, the last two of his game-high 27 points coming with just one tick left on the clock for the win. It was the Gaels' first win in Spokane since 1995 and second straight in the series with Gonzaga after taking down the Bulldogs 81-62 at the WCC Tournament in Las Vegas last March.
The Gaels were five-point underdogs in that 2010 WCC tourney upset. Their win a little less than a month ago marked the third consecutive 'under' in the series.
St. Mary's (22-6 SU, 11-12 ATS) might be in the same shape as Gonzaga right now, only without the long stretch of March Madness appearances, last year's trip the sixth overall and third in a six-season span. Two straight losses have bruised the Gaels badly, especially the 74-66 loss at San Diego about two weeks ago as whopping 16½-point favorites. The loss last Saturday to Utah State left a mark as well. Favored by five at home, St. Mary's upchucked to the tune of a 10-point loss to a good Aggies team.
Gaels backers saw red for the sixth time in seven games with the setback to Utah State. Some may have got most of that back by betting the 'over' in that stretch, going the opposite 6-1 to the spread wagers.
Last season's meeting at St. Mary's saw Gonzaga control the glass in an 89-82 win as four-point underdogs, the game sailing well past the 152½-point odds. The Gaels will be looking for their first home win versus the Bulldogs since Feb. 2008, an 89-85 overtime win, once again with St. Mary's four-point chalk but the total 10 points below at 142½.
Thursday night's contest is ESPN2's late-night telecast tipping a little after 8 p.m. (PT) in the eastern 'burbs of Oakland.
St. Mary's has just one game left on its regular season slate, Saturday's home game with Portland. Gonzaga will head to San Diego after this one for Saturday's matchup against the Toreros. The Bulldogs will then return home for Monday's non-conference finale versus Cal State-Bakersfield.
Thursday Hoops Action
By Judd Hall
Thursday’s betting card is loaded up with plenty of college hoops for us to sweat out. The biggest issue on the table for teams is making a final push for good games on their resume. That will come into effect in two matchups that will take us through the Big East and West Coast Conference.
We’ll start off at the XL Center in Hartford for the battle between the Golden Eagles and Connecticut (20-6 straight up, 12-9 against the spread) on ESPN at 7:00 p.m. EST.
The Huskies got a spot of bad news earlier in the week when the NCAA penalized them for violations in recruiting. The Charmin-soft punishment for Jim “Not a Dime” Calhoun and his team is no postseason ban, scholarship reductions and recruiting restrictions. Meanwhile, Calhoun will be sitting out the first three Big East games of the 2011-2012 season. What a wonderful slap on the wrist.
Aside from the punishments being doled out, UConn is not hurting for getting into the NCAA tournament. However, Connecticut are coming off of a 71-58 setback against the Cardinals as a 3½-point road underdog last Friday night. Kemba Walker had his usually good effort with 16 points and six boards. The only problem is that the Huskies shot 37 percent from the field. Bettors don’t love Calhoun’s club right now anyway as they’re on a 2-5 ATS run.
Marquette (16-11 SU, 12-9 ATS) doesn’t have a great record this season, yet they’re positioned for a 11th-seed in the NCAA tournament according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. So how does a team that has wins against South Florida and Seton Hall in its last four games get in the big dance? Why you do it with quality losses.
The Golden Eagles are nothing but quality losses when you look at them. Buzz Williams and Company have played against 11 teams that were in the AP Top 25 at the time of the game. Marquette’s record in those games is 2-9 SU against ranked programs. At least they’ve covered the spread in seven of those 11 tests to make gamblers happy. But those games are mostly coming in conference play, which it can be argued that the Big East is overrated because of its size.
While the record isn’t great for Marquette, they have the players to make some noise. Darius Johnson-Odom (16.0 PPG, 3.1 RPG) and Jimmy Butler (15.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG) pace the offense. Meanwhile, Jae Crowder leads the team with 6.8 rebounds per game, 4.5 coming off of the defensive glass.
The Golden Eagles have seen the ‘under’ go 11-10 this season. However, that number is seriously augmented by a 6-1 ‘under’ run that they’re on at the moment. Connecticut have watched the ‘under’ go 11-9 this year, but that includes a 7-3 streak.
Connecticut already has one win over the Golden Eagles this season, dropping them 76-68 as a five-point road pup on Jan. 25. Jeremy Lamb came out of nowhere to lead the Huskies with 24 points in this wire-to-wire win.
After we get past that test, we’ll head out west as Saint Mary’s (22-6 SU, 11-11-1 ATS) plays host to the Zags in a vital game for both team’s tourney chances.
The Gaels are currently projected as a 10th-seed in the big dance as Lunardi saw it at the start of the week. Things have certainly changed for them after losing at last-place San Diego (74-66) on Feb. 16 and at home to Utah State (75-65) last Saturday.
Gonzaga (19-9 SU, 13-11-1 ATS) looked to be in serious danger of missing the big dance for the first time since 1998 just two weeks ago. Now the Bulldogs can grab a share of the conference lead on Thursday night.
The Zags come into this game riding a four-game winning streak, going 3-1 ATS in that stretch. Marquise Carter is a big reason for the Bulldogs’ turnaround. The transfer from Three Rivers Community College has averaged 14.3 points per game and 3.8 rebounds per game during this four-game streak.
One of Carter’s worst performances did come in a 73-71 loss to the Gaels on Jan. 27 for Gonzaga as a four-point home favorite.
Including that January victory, Saint Mary’s has won and covered the last two meetings with the Zags. Prior to this recent streak, Gonzaga won six straight games against the Gaels with a 4-2 ATS mark. The ‘under’ is 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head tests.
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College Basketball Knowledge
Cleveland State (-3.5) won 82-59 at Milwaukee Dec 4, shooting 64% in game they led by 25 at half; Vikings are 2-3 in last five games, 5-2 as a Horizon home favorite, winning at home by 18-24-12-19-11-10 points. Panthers won their last seven league games- they've won three of last four on road. Horizon home favorites of 9+ points are 9-11 vs spread.
Florida (+2.5) won 104-91 in double OT in Athens Jan 25; Gators won their last five games, allowing 62 ppg- they're 1-4 as SEC home favorite, winning at home by 6-32-4-1-2 points, with loss to South Carolina. SEC home favorites of less than 7 points are 7-12 vs spread. Georgia is 4-1 in last five SEC games; they're 5-0-1 against spread on SEC road.
Calhoun had death in family, won't coach here; UConn (+5) won 76-68 at Marquette Jan 25- their bench outscored Eagles' subs 21-4. Huskies are 3-4 in last seven games, 4-3 as home favorite, winning at home in Big East by 5-14-2-18-8 points, with two losses. Big East home favorites of less than 6 points are 20-16. Marquette is 3-2 as a Big East road dog.
James Madison (+8) were outscored 22-5 on foul line, lost 64-58 at Old Dominion Jan 19; Dukes won three of their last four games overall, but lost three of last four CAA home games. ODU won/covered its last four games, allowing average of only 54.5 ppg. Home teams are 8-21-1 vs spread in CAA games where pointspread is less than 4 points.
Kent State (+3.5) got waxed 79-54 at Buffalo Jan 19, shooting 33% from floor; Flashes are 3-2 as MAC home favorite, winning by 17-21-17-13-10 points at home. Bulls lost three of last four MAC games; they're 2-3 on MAC road, losing by 3-1-13 points- they're 5-2 as an underdog this year. MAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 6-14-1 vs spread.
UL-Lafayette won last its nine games after 3-14 start; Cajuns (+6) lost at Denver 65-52 Dec 30, shooting 36% with 19 turnovers. ULL won five in row at home, are 9-1 vs spread in last 10 overall. Denver lost its last four on road by 10-3-25-9 points- they're 1-3 as a Sun Belt underdog. Sun Belt home favorites of less than 4 points are 7-5 vs spread.
Oregon State (+8) lost 70-56 at Stanford Jan 29, shooting 31% for night; Beavers lost four in row, seven of last eight games- they're 4-3 at home in Pac-10. Stanford lost its last three games by 11-4-16 points; they are 4-2 as Pac-10 road dog, losing its away games by 10-23-11-11 points. Pac-10 home favorites of 3 or less points are 3-7 vs spread.
Cal was 30-41 from foul line, Oregon 17-26 as Ducks (+9) lost 85-77 in Berkeley Jan 29. Oregon won four of last five games, covered seven of last eight; they won last three at home by 26-10-19 points. Cal is 1-4 in last five games, but 5-2 vs spread as a Pac-10 dog. Pac-10 underdogs are 11-4-1 in games where spread is 3 or less points, 7-3 on road.
Pitt (-1) outrebounded West Virginia 39-25, won 71-66 in Morgantown Feb 7; Panthers are 4-3 as Big East home favorite, winning by 15-8-21-8-12-12 points, with loss to Notre Dame. WVU is 2-3 in last five games, losing last two on road, by 16 at Villanova, by 11 at Syracuse. Big East home favorites of less than 9 points are 30-25 vs spread.
Long Beach State (-3.5) shot 53.1% from floor, won 69-53 at Cal Poly Dec 30; 49ers won last six games (5-1 vs spread)- they're 2-4 as a home favorite, winning by 14-8-4-1-15-13 points. Big West home favorites of 7+ points are 6-14 vs spread. Mustangs won last five conference games, are 4-1 as Big West road dog, with only loss by 15 at Northridge.
USC (+6.5) lost 82-73 in Tucson Jan 29; Arizona shot 61% from floor, made 10-19 from arc; Trojans won three of last four games, are 4-3 at home in Pac-10. Pac-10 underdogs are 11-4-1 in games where spread is 3 or less points, 7-3 on road. Arizona won its last eight games (6-2 against spread), winning last four road games, by 2-9-2-15 points.
St Mary's (+4) won 73-71 at Gonzaga Jan 27; MacConnell had 27 with six assists, but Gaels lost last two games to San Diego/Utah State- they are 1-4 as WCC home favorite, winning all five by 14-30-11-8-9 points. Single digit home favorites are 6-6 vs spread in WCC games. Zags won all six WCC games since 1/27 loss, with last four wins all by 9+ points.
Morehead State shot 59% from floor, forced 19 Murray State turnovers in 75-65 home win (-3.5) Dec 4; Eagles won last eight games, Murray is 8-1 in its last nine. Racers are 1-6 as OVC home favorite, 5-2 SU, with wins by 11-38-17-1-11 points. OVC home favorites of 6 or less points are 9-13 vs spread. Morehead covered five of six as an underdog.
Thursday Totals Watch
By Bruce Marshall
Wisconsin-Milwaukee at Cleveland State - The host Vikings are trending "over" the past few weeks (4-1 their last 5).
Wisconsin-Green Bay at Youngstown State - The Penguins have been a consistent "over-achiever" in recent weeks (Youngstown "over" its last 5 and 7 of its last 8).
Buffalo at Kent State - Lots of "overs" both ways lately, with Buffalo "over" consistently (12-4) the past two months, and Kent State "over" its last four.
Georgia at Florida - Conflicting "totals" trends in this hot SEC East rivalry, with the Gators "over" 8 of their last 12 and Bulldogs "under" 5 of their last 7.
Marquette at UConn - Buzz Williams' Marquette is "under" in 8 of its last 11 outings.
Old Dominion at James Madison - Matt Brady's Dukes are "under" in 4 of their last 5.
Northeastern at George Mason - Lots of streaks on the line in this one, with Mason of cour se covering its last 14 in a row, but effectively matched by Northeastern's "over" in 13 straight and 17 of its last 18. Jim Larranaga's Patriots also "over" 7 of their last 9 games.
Troy at Florida Atlantic - Recent "under" trends both ways, with Trojans "under" their last four and Owls "under" 5 of their last 7 outings.
Loyola-Chicago at Valparaiso - "Overs " in both directions lately, with Jim Whitesell's Ramblers "over" 5-1-1 their last 7 and Homer Drew's Crusaders "over" 8 of their last 10.
Florida International at Western Kentucky - Another pronounced Sun Belt trend belongs to FIU, now "over" in 10 of its last 11.
Arkansas-Little Rock at South Alabama - The Jaguars are "over" in 6 of their last 8 games.
North Texas at Arkansas State - The not-so-Mean Green have been plenty me an lately when it comes to "overs," going that way in 10 of their last 11 games.
Denver at UL-Lafayette - Solid defense propelling recent Ragin' Cajuns uptick, reflected in their six straight "under" efforts.
Stanford at Oregon State - Conflicting trends, with Johnny Dawkins' Cardinal "over" 5 of its last 6 but Craig Robinson's Beavers "under" 6 of their last 7.
Cal at Oregon - Mike Montgomery's Golden Bears are "over" 11-2 -1 their last 14 games.
West Virginia at Pitt - For this hoops version of the "Backyard Brawl," note WVU's 7 "unders" in its last 9 games.
UC Santa Barbara at CS Northridge - Bobby Braswell's Matadors are "under" in their last four games.
Pacific at UC Riverside - Bob Thomason's Tigers are "over" 7 of their last 9 outings.
Cal Poly SLO at Long Beach State - These Big West foes both trending "under" in the past few weeks (Mustangs 5-1 last six, 49ers 4-1 last five).
Arizona at Southern Cal - Conflicting trends. with Wildcats "over" 6 of last 7 and Trojans "under" 12 of last 18.
Idaho at Nevada - The Wolf Pack has gone "over" in 8 of its last 11 games.
Gonzaga at St. Mary's - Conflicting trends, with Zags "under" 5 of last 6 and Gaels "over" 6 of last 7.
Arizona State at UCLA - The Sun Devils are "over" in 6 of their last 8 games.
Portland at San Diego - The Pilots are "under" in their last three games.
La. Tech at Hawaii - The biteless Bulldogs are "under" 11-3-1 in their last 15 games.