Two Top 5 Teams in Action
Doug Upstone
Duke and Kentucky are both involved in attempting to be on the top line where the four seeds of the NCAA Tournament will reside in just over two weeks and each will look to continue to make sure they are in the conversation, being in action on Thursday night on ESPN2. Take a gander at each team and see if you believe they belong as a top seed and review the situation to see if you think they are play on team.
Tulsa at Duke
The last several years, coach Mike Krzyzewski has scheduled one of these non-conference games in February with two things in mind. One, to break up the strain of playing in the ACC and also give his players a chance to face an average to better than average team, typically fighting to earn a NCAA berth. This current collection of Blue Devils players has never won a ACC title and that is foremost on their minds, leading Maryland by a game, nonetheless this great preparation taking on unknown opponent as this club is starting to gel, having won six straight and eight of nine (5-3-1 ATS).
Coach K knows what hes going to get from his Big Three (Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler) and recently hes been working on putting certain players like Lance Thomas, center Brian Zoubek and the Plumlee brothers in more comfortable positions on the floor for them to score. Duke (23-4, 16-9-1 ATS) is 15-0 and 10-4 ATS at home this season.
With Memphis presumably down at the start of the year, Tulsa (19-8, 7-16-1 ATS) believed this might be their opportunity to take charge of Conference USA, with its two senior leaders. Unfortunately the rest of the league has not cooperated and the Golden Hurricane is distant fifth in the league, having lost four of last five to teams that are ahead of them in the standings. Coach Doug Wojcik has never been able to develop a bench and possibly the heavy minutes the starters are playing is taking a toll. Tulsas two best players are guard Ben Uzoh and center Jerome Jordan, whos really blossomed into a very good offensive player. Tulsa has not covered a spread since Jan. 16, a span of 10 games.
Betonline.com has Duke as favorites and they are 12-2 and 8-5 ATS in non-conference action. The Blue Devils are 13-1 and 9-3-1 ATS with three or more days off. Tulsa is 0-7-1 ATS taking on a team with winning record and is 4-10 ATS off a spread loss, including eight failures in a row.
South Carolina at Kentucky
The Wildcats will seek revenge for their lone defeat this season at the hands of the Gamecocks. In the 68-62 loss, Kentucky was "Downey-ized" by Devan Downey, who torched them for 30 points. One important element from the earlier matchup that played a key role was the undersized South Carolina squad held a +4 rebounding edge. Kentucky (26-1, 14-11 ATS) no doubt will seek redemption and is 13-4 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a road favorite.
Since their moment of the year, South Carolina (14-12, 9-14 ATS) has returned to being what they are, a slightly above average squad with limited ability in the paint and dependent on Downey to score and distribute the ball to others. The Gamecocks have shriveled up as visitors with 1-8 and 2-7 ATS record away from Columbia. South Carolina will need an even better performance to sweep Kentucky, but they are 3-12 ATS vs. shooting teams making 45 percent or more of their shots this season.
Big Blue is 11-1 and 8-4 ATS against South Carolina in Lexington, with last seven contests going OVER the number and they are a solid favorite to avenge loss.
Thursday's CBB Tips
By Brian Edwards
The futures of many teams may come down to last night’s results in college basketball. Saint Louis and Minnesota blew golden opportunities to bolster their respective resumes, while Mississippi St. and Ole Miss kept their thinning at-large hopes alive with wins and fortunate covers for their backers.
Virginia Tech’s stock is falling after losing at Duke and then getting blasted at Boston College by an 80-60 count last night. Oklahoma St. had a chance similar to that of the Billikens and Gophers, but only for the first 25 minutes at Texas. Although the Cowboys were ahead of the number for much of the night, the Longhorns hit a late free throw to cover in a 69-59 win as nine-point favorites.
Looking to tonight, Kentucky will be looking to avenge its only loss of the year – at South Carolina. The Gamecocks come to Rupp Arena as a team that seems to be running on fumes. Also, gamblers get a late-night televised game from Spokane. Let’s look for some winners.
**South Carolina at Kentucky**
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Kentucky (26-1 straight up, 14-11 against the spread) as a 14-point home favorite. As of early this morning, most betting shops had the Wildcats favored by 16 1/2 with a total of 145.
South Carolina (14-12 SU, 9-14 ATS) put together its best effort of the season when the ‘Cats came to Columbia on Jan. 26. The Gamecocks pulled a shocker by beating UK 68-62 as seven-point home underdogs. Devan Downey was sensational all night, controlling the pace and outplaying Player of the Year candidate John Wall. Downey, the senior who transferred from Cincinnati back to his home state after Bob Huggins was pink slipped, scored 30 points, grabbed five rebounds, dished out three assists, made two steals and committed just a pair of turnovers against a relentless UK defensive effort aimed to stop him.
Darrin Horn’s team has lost three consecutive games both SU and ATS, including Saturday’s 63-55 loss to Tennessee as a 1 ½-point home underdog. Brandis Raley-Ross had a team-high 16 points for the ‘Cocks. Downey had 15 points but shot just 4-of-18 from the field.
John Calipari’s squad is unbeaten in 17 home games, but it has been a far different story for UK backers. The ‘Cats are just 7-8 versus the number in 15 lined home assignments. They are 1-3 ATS in four games as double-digit home favorites against SEC foes.
South Carolina is in its first double-digit ‘dog situation of the season. The ‘Cocks were 9 ½-point ‘dogs at Tennessee and got destroyed. In addition, they lost at 66-57 at Ole Miss as 8 ½-point puppies.
The ‘over’ is 13-11 overall for UK, 9-5 in its home games at Rupp Arena. On the other hand, the ‘under’ is 15-7 overall for South Carolina.
ESPN2 will provide television coverage at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
**Santa Clara at Gonzaga**
LVSC opened Gonzaga (22-5 SU, 13-9-2 ATS) as a 21-point favorite. As of early this morning, most spots had the Bulldogs at 21 with a total of 139.
Santa Clara (11-18 SU, 11-13 ATS) hung in there against Mark Few’s team when these WCC rivals met back on Jan. 28. The Bulldogs emerged with a 71-64 win, but the Broncos covered rather comfortably as 12-point home underdogs. Matt Bouldin and Steven Gray scored 16 points apiece, while Elias Harris had 16 points and 14 rebounds for the winners.
Gonzaga was the victim of an upset at Loyola Marymount last Thursday. The Lions captured a 74-66 win as 11 ½-point home underdogs. The ‘Zags responded by punishing Pepperdine 72-54 Saturday as 16 ½-point road ‘chalk.’ Bouldin had a team-high 18 points against the Waves.
Gonzaga has won 11 of 12 home games, compiling a 4-4-1 ATS record. The Bulldogs have been double-digit home favorites four times, going 1-2-1 ATS in such spots.
Santa Clara is 3-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog, 4-1 ATS when catching 9 ½ points or more.
The ‘over’ is 15-9 overall for Gonzaga, 7-2 in its home assignments.
The ‘under’ is on a 7-1 run for the Broncos, who have seen the ‘under’ go 14-7 overall.
The ‘over’ has cashed a lucrative 15-3 clip in the last 18 head-to-head encounters between these WCC enemies.
Tip-off is scheduled for 11:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
As of early this morning, most books had Vandy as an 11 ½-point favorite for tonight’s home game vs. Georgia. The Dawgs, who are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs, beat up on the Commodores 72-58 when they met in Athens a few weeks ago. ESPNU will have the telecast from Memorial Gymnasium in Music City at 7:00 p.m. ET.
I mentioned how Ole Miss and Mississippi St. essentially earned ‘stay-alive wins’ last night. I didn’t want to include Marquette in a category with the schools from the Magnolia State because I believe the Golden Eagles are in much better position than the Rebels and Bulldogs. Buzz Williams team went into the Big Apple last night and collected a 63-61 win. Even better, Marquette took the money as a 1 ½-point road favorite.
With last night’s cover against OSU, Texas stopped the bleeding for its backers that had been exposed to a 2-12 ATS slump.
Maryland rallied from nine-point halftime deficit to top Clemson 88-79 as a 4 ½-point home favorite. The Terps improved to 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games. With senior guards like Greivis Vasquez and Eric Hayes, Gary Williams’ team is going to be an extremely tough out in March.
As of early this morning, most books had Duke as an 18-point home favorite for tonight’s home game against Tulsa. Tip-off is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2. The Blue Devils are unbeaten in 15 home games with a 10-3-1 spread mark.
vegasinsider.com
NCAAB News and Notes
Thursday, February 25
Information on the best of Thursday's college basketball games........
Florida Atlantic won its last six home games, with four of the six by 13+ points; Owls (+11) lost 79-72 at Western Kentucky in first meeting Jan 14 as WKU shot 51% from floor. Hilltoppers won last five league tilts, coming back from 10 down at half to win last game in OT at Arkansas State. Sun Belt home underdogs of 4 or less points are 14-4 vs spread.
Vanderbilt (-4.5) lost 72-58 at Georgia Feb 6, shooting 33% for game-- Commodores are 4-3 in last seven games after Kentucky loss, 2-4 as an SEC home favorite, winning home games by 8-8-3-19-8 points. Georgia is 14-4 vs spread in last 18 games, 4-2 as SEC road dog, losing its away games in SEC by 8-3-16-1-19-9 pts. SEC double digit HF's are 5-10.
Tulsa lost four of last five games, dropping last three by 7-6-8 points, now they visit Duke squad that is 6-1 as ACC home favorite, 7-5 when favored in non-league games. Disappointing Hurricane are 0-3 vs spread as an underdog this season. ACC home favorites are 22-24 vs spread in non-league games. C-USA road underdogs are 16-19.
North Texas (+4) lost 74-72 at UL-Lafayette Jan 7, after being down 12 at half; UNT turned ball over 21 times as Cajuns shot 51% from floor. Mean Green is 6-2 as Sun Belt home favorite, winning in Denton by 17-14-8-17-5-18 points. ULL won seven of last ten games; they're 1-4 as a Sun Belt road underdog, losing away games by 12-10-7-2-4-2 points.
Kentucky (-6.5) lost 68-62 in Columbia Jan 26, despite holding Carolina to 34.4% from floor, but Gamecocks are 1-5 vs spread since then, losing last three games by 5-13-8 points- they're 2-4 as an SEC road underdog, losing away games by 9-2-26-15-13 points. Wildcats won last seven in a row, covering last three- they've got Saturday game at Tennessee next.
Cal (-2) lost 76-72 at Arizona Jan 31, making 37.7% from floor; Bears won four of last five games, are 4-3 as Pac-10 home favorite, winning at home by 26-8-32-4-12-16 points. Arizona lost four of last five games, is 6-1 as Pac-10 road underdog, losing away games by 6-3-6-18 points. Double digit home favorites are 5-9 vs spread in Pac-10 games.
San Jose State (+11) lost 96-67 at Nevada Jan 9, trailing by 18 at half in game where they turned ball over 20 times; Spartans lost last four games, but are 5-1 at home in WAC, with only loss by 16 to Utah State. Wolf Pack is 0-6 vs spread in last six games, winning last three by 1-8-4- they are 3-7 vs spread as a WAC fave. WAC home dogs of 4 or less: 2-5.
Stanford (+11) was down 54-22 at half in first meeting in Tempe, lost at Arizona State 88-70; Cardinal is 5-1 at home in Pac-10, losing by 17 to Washington in their only loss in last four games overall. Stanford is 5-5 as Pac-10 underdog, 0-1 at home. ASU is 5-1 in last six games, winning last three by 10-10-4 points; they're 3-1 as Pac-10 road favorite.
USC (-1.5) lost 67-57 at Oregon Jan 30, but Ducks haven't won since, losing last five games, by 20-13-10-7-15 points, scoring just 52.8 ppg. Oregon is 3-4 as Pac-10 road dog, losing last five away games by 32-15-20-13-10 points. Trojans won four of last five games; they're 3-4 as a Pac-10 home favorite, winning home games by 6-10-26-3-5-4 points.
UCLA (+1.5) won 62-52 at Oregon State Jan 30, shooting 65.7% from floor; Bruins lost three of last four games, are 1-3 as Pac-10 favorite at home, winning home games by 2-1-12-4 points. Beavers are 6-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 6-5-24-4-10 points- they're 6-2 vs the spread in last eight. Pac-10 home faves of 5 or less points are 14-11-1.
Wofford (-1) was just 13-22 from line, 3-14 from arc in 70-68 loss Jan 22 at Charleston; Terriers won eight games in row since, with six wins by 11+ points- they're 3-3 as SoCon home favorite, winning home tilts by 14-6-15-11-16-18 points. Cougars won three in row, six of their last seven games; they're 2-2 as road dog, losing on road by 10-15 points.
Murray State (-9.5) shot 57% from floor, 11-24 from arc in 86-56 rout of Morehead State back on Dec 5; Racers are 16-0 in OVC, 5-2 as road favorite, winning away games by 21-16-9-19-32-32-8 points. Morehead State is 13-3 in OVC, 7-0 at home; they're defending champs in the OVC tourney, so these two could be meeting for bigger stakes in two weeks.
Eastern Illinois won its last five games; they're 9-3 vs spread in last 12 OVC games; they covered last four games as OVC favorite, but lost at Austin Peay 73-60 Dec 5 (+7.5), outscored 25-12 on foul line. EIU won six of seven OVC home games- they've won last four games overall, are 2-2 as home favorite. Governors lost five of seven OVC road games.
Tulsa (19-8, 7-16-1 ATS) at (5) Duke (23-4, 16-8-2 ATS)
The Blue Devils look to pad their stats with a late-season, non-conference contest against Tulsa at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Since falling at Georgetown on Jan. 30, Duke has reeled off six consecutive wins (3-1-2 ATS), including Sunday’s 67-55 defeat of Virginia Tech, pushing as a 12-point home chalk. The Blue Devils rank 12th nationally in scoring, averaging 80.0 ppg, while allowing 62.5, and they are even better at Cameron, racking up 87.3 ppg and yielding just 60.7.
Tulsa, out of Conference USA, has lost three in a row and four of its last five, and it has come up a loser at the betting window nine straight times, including Saturday’s 78-70 setback to Texas-El Paso as a 1½-point home favorite. Over the last five games, the Golden Hurricane have been outscored by just over five points per contest (72.0-66.6) while shooting 42.8 percent from the floor (25.7 percent from 3-point range).
These teams haven’t met since the 1999 NCAA Tournament, when Duke plowed to a 97-56 second-round victory as a whopping 24½-point favorite.
The Blue Devils are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games and a modest 2-0-2 ATS in their last four starts overall. Tulsa is on negative ATS streaks of 5-15-1 overall (0-9 last nine), 0-4 on the road, 0-7-1 against winning teams, 0-8 after a non-cover, 0-4 after a SU loss and 4-9-1 on Thursday.
The under for Duke is on runs of 5-1 overall and 5-2 at home, and the total for Tulsa has stayed low in seven of 10 overall and six straight on the road. However, Duke is on “over” upticks of 5-1 on Thursday and 6-2 in non-conference play, and the over has hit in five of Tulsa’s last seven outside Conference USA.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE
South Carolina (14-12, 9-14 ATS) at (2) Kentucky (26-1, 14-11 ATS)
The red-hot Wildcats aim to avenge their only loss of the season when they play host to South Carolina in an SEC clash at Rupp Arena.
Kentucky stumbled to the Gamecocks 68-62 as a seven-point road chalk on Jan. 26, but has since won seven in a row (5-2 ATS), squeaking past Vanderbilt 58-56 Saturday as a one-point road favorite. For the season, the Wildcats are outscoring opponents by an average of about 15 ppg (80.4-65.3). On the home floor, where John Calipari’s club is 17-0, that jumps to about 18 ppg, as Kentucky averages 84.0 on 49.6 percent shooting and gives up 65.8 on 38.2 percent shooting.
South Carolina has dumped three in a row SU and ATS, all in the SEC and all as an underdog, including Saturday’s 63-55 home setback to Tennessee as a 1½-point home pup. The Gamecocks are 1-8 in true road games, putting up just 65 ppg (38.8 percent shooting) and allowing 73 ppg (45.4 percent). Since opening SEC play with an eight-point road win at Auburn (as a one-point underdog), South Carolina has dropped five straight conference road games (1-4 ATS), losing by nine points or more three times.
South Carolina has won and covered three in a row in this rivalry, taking the last two on its home floor, including the six-point win at home a month ago. The Gamecocks also scored a stunning 78-77 win at Rupp Arena last year catching 9½ points last season. The SU winner in this rivalry is on an 8-1 ATS run (5-0 last five), the ‘dog is on a 9-2 ATS roll, the road team has covered in 12 of the last 17 contests and the Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS on their last five trips to Lexington.
The Wildcats are in a 2-5 ATS rut following a spread-cover, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall – all coming off a SU win and all in the SEC. The Gamecocks have cashed in eight of their last 10 Thursday outings, but they are otherwise on pointspread purges of 1-5 overall (all in the SEC), 2-9 on the highway, 2-6 after a non-cover and 4-9 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
Kentucky is on “over” surges of 10-3 against winning teams, 6-2-1 on Thursday and 8-3 at Rupp Arena, and the over is 12-3 in South Carolina’s last 15 against winning teams. In addition, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in 13 of the last 16 meetings overall and seven of the last eight in Kentucky.
That said, the Gamecocks are on “under” tears of 18-7-1 overall, 5-1 on the road, 4-1 on Thursday, 9-3 after a SU loss and 10-4-1 in the SEC, and their last two meetings with the Wildcats (both at home) stayed under the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY and OVER
Kentucky Seeks Revenge
Rocketman Sports
The Kentucky Wildcats will be looking to avenge their only loss of the entire season when they play host to South Carolina on Thursday night. As this is a classic revenge situation, odds makers have the proper adjustments by installing Kentucky as 16 point home favorites over the Gamecocks. South Carolina won by a final score of 68-62 on January 26th led by Devan Downey who scored 30 points in that game. The biggest problem he gave Kentucky was his ability to dribble penetrate into the lane and get to the free throw line where he scored 10 of his 30 points. Also, helping the cause was the fact that Kentucky turned the ball over 15 times and you simply cannot do that if you want to win on the road in the SEC.
South Carolina heads into this game with virtually no chance at making the NCAA Tournament unless they somehow win the SEC Tournament in a few weeks. They are 14-12 overall and two games under .500 in SEC play at 5-7. The Gamecocks have not been profitable as they are just 9-14 ATS and are 1-8 SU on the road this season. South Carolina has lost 4 of its last 5 games straight up and against the spread. Their most recent loss came at home where Tennessee took care of business by a final score of 63-55 as just 1 point road favorites. The biggest problem over those five games has been poor defense as South Carolina has allowed opponents to score an average of over 74 points per game and hit nearly 50% of their shots from the field. They will have to tighten up big time on defense if they want to have any shot at beating Kentucky a second time.
What can you say about Kentucky? They are ranked 2nd in the nation and have ripped off seven straight wins since losing their only game of the season at South Carolina. They have great guards and great bigs and are extremely hard to stop on the offensive side of the floor. They are led by John Wall who is averaging 17.0 points a game and DeMarcus Cousins who is averaging over 10 rebounds per game. The only concern about this Kentucky team is their lack of veteran leadership. They definitely have the talent to win a national championship but when it comes to crunch time in late March or early April will their inexperience be their Achilles heel? As for tonight, they should be able to take care of business over a struggling South Carolina team but the real question is will they be able to cover the lofty point spread. Sixteen and a half points is a lot to spot a team in conference play but a motivated Kentucky team has the capability of blowing South Carolina out, but we all know that doesn ' t mean that they will.
Tips and Trends
South Carolina Gamecocks at Kentucky Wildcats
Gamecocks: South Carolina has fallen off the map since becoming the only team in college basketball to beat Kentucky this season. South Carolina has lost 3 consecutive games SU, and is only 2-4 SU since their improbable SU win over Kentucky. The Gamecocks have struggled to score of late, scoring 61 PTS or fewer in 3 of their past 5 games. G Devan Downey averages 22.7 PPG this season, easily leading the entire SEC conference. Downey accounts for nearly a third of the Gamecocks scoring, as they average 72 PPG as a team. Downey was spectacular against Kentucky their first meeting, scoring a team high 30 PTS. The Gamecocks have struggled defensively as well, allowing 4 of their past 6 opponents to score at least 70 PTS. South Carolina is 14-12 SU this season, including an ATS record of 9-14 ATS. The Gamecocks are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS on the road this season. The Gamecocks are 3-7 ATS as the listed underdog this season, with today marking the 1st time this season they are listed as a double digit underdog.
South Carolina is 2-9 ATS last 11 road games.
Under is 6-1 last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % greater than .600.
Key Injuries - F Dominique Archie (knee) is out.
F Mike Holmes (eye) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 58
Wildcats (-16.5, O/U 145): Huge revenge angle for Kentucky tonight, as they face off against the only team they've lost to SU all season long. Proof that Kentucky is motivated to play well tonight is in this double digit line tonight. Kentucky was a 7 point favorite earlier this year when these teams played and now this line is nearly 10 PTS higher. The Wildcats are 26-1 SU and ranked #2 in the country. Kentucky is 14-11 ATS this season, including 6-9 ATS as a double digit favorite. The Wildcats are a perfect 17-0 SU at home this season, including 7-8 ATS at home. The Wildcats have won a season high 3 consecutive games ATS heading into tonight's contest. The Wildcats are 11-1 SU in conference play this season, and hold a 2 game lead in conference play. Kentucky has been held to 73 PTS or fewer in 3 of their past 4 games despite averaging better than 80 PPG this season. PG John Wall is leading the Wildcats in PTS and assists this season, averaging 16.8 PPG and 6.3 APG respectively.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS last 5 games following a SU win.
Over is 5-0 last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 81 (SIDE of the Day)