NCAA Hoops Heaven
By Brian Edwards
**Florida at Alabama**
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Alabama (13-8 straight up, 9-8-1 against the spread) as a 1 ½-point favorite.
This matchup features Billy Donovan vs. Anthony Grant. The former had Grant on his coaching staff at Marshall for two years and then for 10 years at Florida. Grant was instrumental in the recruitment of Taurean Green, Al Horford, Joakim Noah and Corey Brewer, who led the Gators to back-to-back national championships. Also, when Donovan (briefly) took the head-coaching job for the Orlando Magic, Grant was literally on the UF plane prepared to fly back to Gainesville and be hired as Donovan’s replacement.
Florida (15-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) is coming off a heartbreaking loss Sunday at Tennessee. The Gators dropped a 61-60 decision, although they did hook up their backers as 8 ½-point road underdogs. Scotty Hopson hit a 20-foot fade-away jumper from the right wing to give UT the lead in the final seconds. UF had one last shot at pulling the upset, but junior forward Alex Tyus missed a short jumper with a few ticks left. Tyus had a game-high 18 points and seven rebounds, while Chandler Parsons was also in double figures with 14 points.
Alabama is 9-4 SU and 5-5 ATS at home in Coleman Coliseum. The Crimson Tide has won its last two home outings, knocking off Mississippi St. (62-57) and LSU (56-37), but its two-game winning streak ended Saturday in a 58-57 loss at Auburn. The one-point loss on the Plains resulted in a push for ‘Bama, which closed as a one-point road underdog.
UF has won four of its last five games both SU and ATS. Before losing in Knoxville, the Gators won four straight with victories over LSU, Arkansas, South Carolina and Georgia.
Florida is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in four true road games this year. The Gators are 4-3 in SEC play, trailing the East division co-leaders Kentucky and Vanderbilt by two games.
UF is led in scoring by freshman guard Kenny Boynton, who is averaging 14.3 points per game. Sophomore guard Ervin Walker is scoring at a 13.1 PPG clip and is also averaging a team-high 5.2 assists and 1.6 steals per game.
Alabama is 3-4 in SEC play, leaving it 1 ½ games behind the SEC West leaders, the Mississippi St. Bulldogs.
The ‘under’ has been a monster money maker in ‘Bama games all year, as evidenced by its 9-0 run. The Tide has watched the ‘under’ go 14-3 overall, 8-1 in its home games.
The ‘under’ is 4-1 in UF’s last five games, 8-4 overall.
Tip-off is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.
**Tennessee at LSU**
LVSC opened Tennessee (16-4 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) as an 8 ½-point favorite.
LSU (9-12 SU, 4-13 ATS) is in the midst of a rebuilding year in Trent Johnson’s second campaign in Baton Rouge. His first team advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament, where the Tigers gave eventual national champ North Carolina fits. They actually had the lead midway through the second half before the Tar Heels rallied for the victory.
Bruce Pearl’s squad has overcome the dismissal of senior forward Tyler Smith and the ongoing suspension of Brian Williams to thrive in his fifth season on campus. Barring an unforeseen collapse of epic proportions, the Vols are en route to their fifth straight trip to the Big Dance.
With Smith gone and Williams still unavailable, Wayne Chism, Bobby Maze and Hopson have stepped up their play for Tennessee. Chism is averaging a team-high 7.2 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game. He was the catalyst in a come-from-behind win at Alabama two weeks ago.
LSU has lost seven consecutive games, going 1-6 ATS in the process. The Tigers are coming off Saturday’s 67-51 loss at Mississippi St. as 12-point underdogs.
LSU had a veteran-laded squad last season, but Tasmin Mitchell and Bo Spencer are the only key holdovers. Mitchell, a senior forward, is averaging a team-high 17.9 points, 9.6 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game. Spencer is scoring at a 14.5 PPG clip.
LSU has been burning the pockets of its backers all year long. The Tigers are 9-4 SU at home but an abysmal 2-7 versus the number at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center.
Tennessee will be looking to avenge a 79-73 loss to LSU at Thompson-Boling Arena last year. In that spot, the Tigers went into Knoxville as 7 ½-point underdogs and prevailed behind 29 points from Marcus Thornton. Chism had 19 points and nine boards in the losing effort.
The ‘under’ is 12-4 overall for LSU, 6-2 in its home games.
The ‘under’ is 9-4 overall for the Vols.
ESPN will provide the telecast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
**Portland at Gonzaga**
LVSC opened Gonzaga (17-4 SU, 9-8-1 ATS) as a nine–point favorite.
Mark Few’s team saw its nine-game winning streak snapped in Saturday’s 81-77 loss at San Francisco in overtime. The Bulldogs, who were 12-point road favorites, failed to cover the number for the fourth straight time. In the losing effort, Elias Harris had 21 points and eight rebounds, while Matt Bouldin finished with 15 points, 12 boards and five assists.
Portland (14-7 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) made a lot of noise in November, beating teams like Oregon, UCLA and Minnesota. At the time, the Ducks and Bruins were expected to be better than they have turned out to be, so those wins aren’t as impressive now as they appeared back then.
Portland has won four in a row, including back-to-back road triumphs at Santa Clara (74-52) and at San Francisco (74-58). Even better, the Pilots are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six outings.
Eric Reveno’s squad is led by its outstanding backcourt combination of T.J. Campbell and Nik Raivio, who is the younger brother of former Gonzaga star Derek Raivio. Campbell is averaging 13.3 points and 5.6 assists per game. Raivio, who has missed four straight games and is “questionable” for Thursday’s game, averages 14.1 points and 6.1 rebounds per contest.
Bouldin leads the Bulldogs in scoring (16.4 PPG), assists (4.2 APG) and steals (1.8 SPG).
Gonzaga has won eight of its nine home games, but it has limped to a 2-4 spread record in the six lined affairs.
When these teams met at Portland earlier this year on Jan. 9, the Bulldogs captured an 81-78 win as two-point road favorites. The 159 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 144-point number. Bouldin had a team-high 20 points and nine assists, while Robin Smeulders had a game-high 24 points for the Pilots prior to fouling out.
The ‘over’ is a lucrative 14-4 overall for Gonzaga, 6-0 in its home games.
The ‘under’ is 10-6 overall for the Pilots.
ESPN2 will have television coverage at 11:00 p.m. Eastern.
Please check back later for B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets…
Brian Edwards can be reached at [email protected]
NCAAB News and Notes
Thursday, February 4
Information on the best of Thursday's college basketball games........
Duke (-6.5) lost 71-67 at Georgia Tech Jan 9; Tech outscored Duke 22-9 on foul line- Blue Devils made just 6-28 from arc, but Duke covered all four ACC home games, winning by 21-20-20-14 points. Tech won three of last four games; they're 2-1 as ACC road dog, losing by 7 at Virginia, 2 at Florida State, but winning SU at North Carolina.
Underdog covered four of last five Florida-Alabama games; Gators won four of last five games but are 1-2 on SEC road, losing by 8 at Vandy, 1 at Tennessee, winning at Arkansas. Alabama is 2-4 in last six games, but won last two at home, allowing 47.5 ppg in wins over Miss State, LSU. Alabama coach Grant was assistant at Florida for their national titles.
North Carolina lost four of five games since beating Virginia Tech 78-64 (-8.5) in ACC opener Jan 10; UNC blocked 10 shots, held Tech to 36% from floor in that game- they're 1-1 on ACC road, beating NC State by 14, losing by 19 at Clemson. Hokies are 2-0 at home in ACC, beating Miami by 15, Boston College by a point. Heels won last four in series.
Maryland (-5) made 10-16 from arc in 77-68 win over Florida State Jan 10; Terps are 5-1 vs spread in ACC, won three of last four games- they are 2-1 as ACC road dog, losing by 2 at Wake, 9 at Clemson. Seminoles won three of last four games; they're 0-3 as ACC home favorite. Home team won last eight series games; Terps lost last four here (4-11-17-3).
Notre Dame lost four of last five games, first of which was 60-58 loss at Cincinnati (+5) Jan 16; Bearcats won despite shooting 32.3% for night. Irish are 3-1 at home in Big East, losing to Syracuse, winning other three games by 15-2-10 points- they're 1-3 as Big East favorite. Cincinnati is 3-1 in last four games, but lost last three on road, by 7-2-8 points.
San Jose State (+6) upset Louisiana Tech 87-76 Jan 21, making 24-28 on foul line, 7-15 from arc (Tech was 8-12 from line, 10-22 from arc). Tech lost two of last three after 5-0 WAC start; they're 2-2 as home favorite, winning at home by 6-22-8 points. San Jose is 1-3 as WAC road dog, losing away games by 29-10-1-19 points. WAC home faves: 12-12.
LSU is 0-7 in SEC, losing home games by 17-4-10 points; they're 0-5 vs spread in last five games. Underdogs covered last four Tennessee-LSU games; Vols lost two of last three visits here. Vols are 1-4 vs spread in last five games, splitting pair of road games (won by 7 at Alabama, lost by 15 at Georgia). Tigers were held to 38-51 points in last two games.
Arizona State (-7.5) hammered Washington State 71-46 in first meeting, holding Coogs to 29.8% for game; ASU is 5-2 in last seven games, taking last two road games, by 19-9 points. Wazzu is 2-7 vs spread in Pac-10, 0-4 at home, beating Oregon State by 5, Stanford by 4, losing to Oregon by 2, Cal by 5. Pac-10 home underdogs are 5-2 vs spread.
Pacific won last five games since 68-67 loss (-1.5) at Thunderdome back on Jan 10; Tigers are 2-1-1 as Big West home favorite, winning at home by 9-13-7-16 points. Gauchos are 1-2-1 as road dog, losing away games by 2 at Irvine, 20 at Long Beach, 7 at Northridge. UCSB is 5-2 in its last seven games vs Pacific, winning two of last three visits here.
Arizona covered last six games, won last four; they're 7-0 as Pac-10 dog, 5-0 on road, losing by 6 at USC, 3 at Oregon State, winning other three games. Wildcats beat Washington 87-70 (+2) in first meeting, making 25 of 32 from foul line. Huskies won last four home games by 33-15-47-28 points- home team covered their last seven conference games.
Cal (-10) beat USC 67-59 in first meeting, making 21-24 from foul line (USC was 3-5); Bears are 2-2 on Pac-10 road, winning first, losing next game both road trips- they're 5-2 in last seven games overall. Trojans are 3-1 at home in Pac-10, beating Arizona schools/Washington, losing to Wazzu, but they lost three of last four games overall, scoring 62.3 ppg.
Stanford (-3.5) beat UCLA 70-59 Jan 9, forcing 22 turnovers; Cardinal is 0-5 on Pac-10 road, 1-4 as road dog, losing by 26-33-4-18-8 points away from home. Home side won all nine of its Pac-10 games (7-1-1 against spread). Stanford lost last four visits here by 17-14-10-34 pts. UCLA won three of its last four games, allowing 61.5 ppg.
Gonzaga won last 13 games vs Portland, beating Pilots 81-78 (-2.5) in first meeting Jan 9; Pilots are 4-2 vs spread in last six visits here, but as dogs of 15+ points in all six- their rise as program is shown by spread being 8.5 here. Portland is 5-2 in WCC, losing by 5 at St Mary's. Zags got upset at San Francisco last game; they won home games by 7-16.
Revenge-Minded
By SportsPic
The Dookies (17-4, 13-7 ATS) look to avenge an earlier loss when Georgia Tech (16-5, 11-4 ATS) visits Cameron Indoor Stadium for a huge Thursday night showdown. Up-Down Blue Devils pounded 89-77 at Georgetown allowing Hoyas 71.7% from the field, 46.2% from outside had better find the answer defensively. This deep Georgia team can sting. Yellow Jackets won their last two by 69 points. Yes crushing overmatched Kentucky State was expected but the 21 point thrashing of Wake Forest the previous game wasn't and shows Georgia Tech can make noise in the conference. Still, wouldn't expect Jackets to win outright in front of the Cameron Crazies a venue that has seen the team lose six straight (1-5 ATS) and thirteen of fourteen (4-10 ATS). It'll be a defensive tussle that should interest total players who've cashed 10 straight 'Under' tickets in this series including five when the teams collide on this floor.
Cincinnati at Notre Dame
By SportsPic
Fighting Irish looking to bounce back from a loss at Villanova dropped its third consecutive league road game Saturday a 74-73 decision to the Scarlet Knights a team that had dropped its previous eight league games by an average of 19.1 points. Now 1-4 (0-5 ATS) it's last five, 15-7 (7-8-1 ATS) overall, 4-5 (3-5-1 ATS) in the Big East the Irish are seeing the run at the NCAA Tournament unravel. Notre Dame lead by Luke Harangody (24.2 PPG), Tim Abromaitis (16.7), Ben Hansbrough (11.7) have talent. Returning to Joyce Center Thursday for a clash with Bearcats should help the team take a stand, make a statement. Keep in mind, Irish are a strong 13-2 (11-4 ATS) at home and that Beacats are 0-2 (0-2) in two trips to South Bend, 4-10 (5-8-1 ATS) in conference play away from Cincinnati losing by a 10.9 PPG margin.
(21) Georgia Tech (16-5, 11-4 ATS) at (10) Duke (17-4, 13-7 ATS)
Duke tries to rebound from a humbling non-conference loss at Georgetown – and avenge last month’s loss at Georgia Tech – when it returns to Cameron Indoor Stadium for an ACC clash with the Yellow Jackets.
Georgia Tech stepped out of conference Saturday and crushed Kentucky State 98-50 in a non-lined home game, which came on the heels of last Thursday’s 21-point rout of Wake Forest as a 5½-point home favorite. The Yellow Jackets have won four of their last five games, cashing in all four lined contests, with the only setback being a 68-66 loss in their most recent road game at Florida State (as a five-point underdog). They’re 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS in true roadies this season.
The Blue Devils went to Georgetown on Saturday as a two-point favorite but were never in the game, losing 89-77 to the seventh-ranked Hoyas. Prior to that, Duke had posted consecutive double-digit ACC wins over Clemson (60-47 as a two-point road chalk) and Florida State (70-56 as a 12½-point home favorite). The Blue Devils are 12-0 SU and 8-3 ATS at Cameron Indoor, outscoring visitors by a whopping 29 points per game (90-61). They shoot 50.3 percent from the field at home (42.6 percent from three-point range) and hold opponents to 38.4 percent overall and 29.6 percent from long range.
The Yellow Jackets stunned Duke 71-67 as a seven-point home underdog on Jan. 9, ending a four-game losing skid (1-3 ATS) in the rivalry. Although the Blue Devils had a 43.3 percent to 41.5 percent shooting edge, Georgia Tech dominated from the free-throw line (22-for-28 vs. 9-for-14) and had a 34-26 rebounding advantage.
Duke has won eight of the last 10 meetings with Georgia Tech (6-4 ATS) and is 10-1 in the last 11 clashes at Cameron Indoor. Going back further, the Devils have cashed in 16 of the last 21 clashes overall. The Jackets’ last victory at Duke came in 2004.
In addition to cashing in its last four games (all in ACC play), Georgia Tech is on ATS runs of 8-2 on the highway, 5-1 on Thursday, 11-4 after a SU victory and 8-2 when coming off a win of more than 20 points. The Blue Devils are on pointspread surges of 7-3 overall, 5-0 at home, 4-1 in conference, 4-0 after a non-cover and 7-3 against winning teams, but they have failed to cover in five of their last seven after a SU setback.
The under is on runs of 4-0 for the Yellow Jackets overall, 16-5 for the Yellow Jackets against winning teams, 5-2 for Duke at home, 22-8 for Duke in ACC play and 7-0 for Duke against winning teams. Finally, 16 of the last 21 meetings between these schools – including the last 13 in a row – have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE and UNDER
Maryland (14-6, 9-7 ATS) at Florida State (16-5, 5-11 ATS)
The Terrapins, who are coming off their first defeat in nearly three weeks, hit the highway for their second straight ACC road game when they visit the Tucker Center in Tallahassee for a battle with Florida State.
Maryland took a four-game SU and six-game ATS winning streak to Clemson on Sunday and stumbled 62-53, falling short as a 3½-point underdog. The Terps were held to a season-low in points and scored less than 70 for just the second time this season. Prior to playing Clemson, they had averaged 80.4 points in their first five ACC contests. Maryland is 3-5 (4-4 ATS) on the highway this year, including 1-2 (2-1 ATS) when visiting league rivals.
The Seminoles rebounded from last Wednesday’s 70-56 loss at Duke with Saturday’s 61-57 victory at Boston College. They covered as a one-point underdog, ending an 0-5 ATS slump, all in ACC play. Florida State has been held under 70 points in five of six conference games (including the last four in a row), and while the ‘Noles are 10-1 at home, they’re just 1-6 ATS in lined games.
The home team has dominated this rivalry, winning the last nine in a row (7-2 ATS). On Jan. 10, the Seminoles went to Maryland and fell 77-68 as a four-point underdog, falling to 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in the last four head-to-head battles. Also, the host has covered in 10 of the last 12 meetings – with Florida State going 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes at the Tucker Center – and the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six.
The Terps on are on ATS runs of 6-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 9-3 after a SU defeat and 8-1 against the ACC. On the flip side, Florida State is in pointspread ruts of 1-5 overall (all in the ACC), 1-6 at home, 1-4 on Thursday, 2-6 after a SU victory and 1-5 against winning teams.
These teams have topped the total in four of their last five meetings overall and four of their last five in Tallahassee. Also, Maryland comes into this contest carrying “over” trends of 9-4 overall, 4-1 against winning teams, 6-1 after a SU defeat and 6-0 after a non-cover. Conversely, the under is on streaks of 4-0 for Florida State overall (all within the ACC) and 9-4 for the Terps in conference games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARYLAND and OVER
Arizona State (15-7, 8-10 ATS) at Washington State (14-7, 7-12 ATS)
Arizona State will try to sweep the season series from the Cougars when it heads to Pullman for this Pac-10 contest at Beasley Coliseum.
The Sun Devils snapped a brief two-game slide in dominating fashion Saturday, jumping out to a 54-22 halftime lead and rolling to an 88-70 victory as an 11-point favorite. Since dropping its first two conference games of the season SU and ATS (both on the road), Arizona State has won and covered five of its last seven, including two road victories at Oregon (76-57) and Oregon State (66-57). The SU winner has gotten the cash in each of the Sun Devils’ last 10 games (including all nine Pac-10 contests)..
Washington State took a 40-36 halftime lead at Washington on Saturday, then returned to the court and got outscored 56-24 over the final 20 minutes to lose 92-64 as a nine-point road underdog. The Cougars have dropped four of their last six games (1-5 ATS), including a trio of double-digit losses. The slump started with a 71-46 loss at Arizona State as an eight-point underdog on Jan. 10. Wazu is 7-2 at home, but just 1-6 ATS in lined games.
With its 25-point rout of Washington State last month, Arizona State snapped a six-game SU losing streak and a three-game pointspread slide in this rivalry. The Sun Devils have dropped six in a row in Pullman (1-5 ATS), and the host has covered in eight of the last nine head-to-head clashes.
While Arizona State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games, the Cougars are in ATS funks of 1-5 overall, 0-5 at home, 0-4 after a SU defeat, 2-5 after a non-cover and 1-6 against teams with a winning record.
The Sun Devils are on “over” runs of 5-0 overall, 4-1 on the road, 6-2 on Thursday, 4-1 after a SU victory and 6-2 after a spread-cover, and Washington State is on “over” stretches of 12-5 overall and 6-1 at home. On the other hand, the under has been the play in five of the last six meetings in this rivalry overall and five of the last six at the Beasley Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA STATE and OVER
Tips and Trends
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Duke Blue Devils
Yellow Jackets: Georgia Tech is 16-5 SU, earning themselves an overall national ranking of 21st in the country. Staying in the national rankings will be tough considering they are 5-29 SU all time when playing in Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Yellow Jackets beat Duke last month SU, winning SU for only the 3rd time in the past 27 attempts. The Yellow Jackets are 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS in true road games this season. Georgia Tech is both 2-1 SU and ATS in neutral court settings this season. For the entire season, the Yellow Jackets are an impressive 11-4 ATS. Georgia Tech is also 3-2 ATS as the listed underdog, with today marking the 1st time this season the Yellow Jackets will be a double digit underdog. 3 different Yellow Jackets average double digits in PTS this season. Future NBA forwards Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors combine to average 26 PPG and nearly 18 RPG to lead Georgia Tech.
Yellow Jackets are 8-2 ATS last 10 road games.
Under is 10-1 last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Key Injuries - F Kammeron Holsey (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 60
Blue Devils (-12.5, O/U 143): Duke is still the 10th ranked team in the nation despite losing 3 of their past 7 games SU. Duke comes off a double digit loss to Georgetown SU that appears closer than it actually was. After each SU loss, Duke has responded with an ATS win in lined games. Overall, Duke is 17-4 SU and a perfect 12-0 SU at home this season. Duke is 8-3 ATS at home this season, with each ATS game at home coming as double digit favorites. In fact, today represents the 2nd shortest line Duke has been up against at home this season. The Blue Devils lost outright to Georgia Tech less than a month ago, so revenge will be on the minds of Blue Devils everywhere. Duke averages nearly 82 PPG, thanks to 3 different Blue Devils averaging more than 15 PPG. G Jon Scheyer leads the team with both 18.7 PPG and 5.6 APG this season while shooting better than 90% from the free throw line.
Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS last 5 home games.
Under is 7-0 last 7 vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 77 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Portland Pilots at Gonzaga Bulldogs
Pilots: Portland has won 4 straight games SU, with all 4 games coming in West Coast Conference play. Portland is 14-7 SU and 11-6-1 ATS this season. The Pilots are 6-5 SU and 7-4 ATS away from home this season, both in true road games and in neutral court games this season. Portland is also 4-4 ATS as the listed underdog. Portland has only lost 1 game ATS in 2010, and that was against Gonzaga. Revenge will clearly be on the minds of Portland tonight, as they lost by 3 points at home last month to Gonzaga as 2 point underdogs. Portland averages nearly 74 PPG, and has scored at least that many PTS in each of their past 4 games. Guards T.J. Campbell and Jared Stohl are going to have to play well in the absence of leading scorer Nik Raivio. Campbell and Stohl combine to average nearly 25 PPG this season. Stohl has been impressive thus far, averaging nearly 19 PPG in Raivio's absence, shooting 47.5% from 3 point land this season.
Pilots are 4-0 ATS last 4 road games.
Under is 6-1 last 7 road games.
Key Injuries - F Andy Poling (personal) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 64
Bulldogs (-8.5, O/U 145): 17th ranked Gonzaga has several questions to answer now that they are back home. Many experts think this team is vastly overrated, and point to SU losses at San Francisco as perfect examples. Gonzaga lost in OT to San Francisco as a double digit ATS favorite. Gonzaga is 17-4 SU and 9-8-1 ATS for the season. Luckily, Gonzaga is back at home where they are 8-1 SU and 2-4 SU this season. Gonzaga is only 1-5-1 ATS as a double digit favorite this season, including 4 consecutive ATS losses. The Bulldogs certainly need to bounce back quickly from their first SU loss in conference play in 28 games. The past 5 conference games have been close, separated by 7 PTS or fewer each time. Gonzaga averages 79 PPG, thanks to 4 Bulldogs averaging double digits in PTS. G Matt Bouldin and F Elias Harris combine to average nearly 33 PPG and 13 RPG this season.
Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 13-3 last 16 home games.
Key Injuries - G Nik Raivio (achilles) is questionable.
G B.J. Porter (personal) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 78 (Side of the Day)