ACC Opening Round
By Chris David
The Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament tips off Thursday with its opening round action. Even though North Carolina won the NCAA Tournament last year and the conference has won four championships since 2000, this group is down and we mean really down this year.
If you take out fourth-ranked Duke, the other 11 teams don’t pose much of a threat. Perhaps you can make a case for No. 19 Maryland, who recently beat the Blue Devils at home, but it’s hard to dismiss non-conference losses by Gary Williams’ team to Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Villanova and William & Mary.
If the Blue Devils do lose at Greensboro Coliseum, it will most likely come from a poor shooting performance. Even then, it’s still tough to see an upset happening and the oddsmakers at Bodog.com agree.
Team/Odds
Duke - 2/3
Maryland - 3/1
Florida State - 13/2
Virginia Tech - 8/1
Wake Forest - 12/1
Clemson - 12/1
North Carolina -12/1
Georgia Tech -15/1
Field -15/1
Boston College - 30/1
In case you’re wondering, the Field Bet includes Virginia, Miami, Fl. and N.C. State. All three of those schools meet today, along with five others.
Let’s take a closer look at the four matchups.
No. 9 Virginia vs. No. 8 Boston College (12:00 p.m.)
BC (15-15 SU, 13-13 ATS) opened up as a five-point favorite against Virginia (14-15 SU, 10-14 ATS) and the line seems fair based on past history and current form. The Eagles have won three straight meetings against the Cavaliers, including a 68-55 decision last Wednesday from Chestnut Hill. BC opened up a big lead (37-24) at the break and did enough to hold off any late rally from UVA.
Including this loss, the Cavaliers have dropped nine straight games heading into the ACC Tournament. What’s even worse for UVA backers is that the team posted a 1-8 ATS run during this stretch and the lone cover came by a hook. The offense has only been able to surpass the 60-point plateau four times during this skid and head coach Tony Bennett just suspended Sylven Landesberg (17 PPG) for the season.
Boston College is by no means a powerhouse but it’s been a little more competitive than UVA. Al Skinners’ team closed the regular season with a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS run. Both losses came on away from home, and gamblers should make a note that the school is 4-9 SU and 6-7 ATS in road or neutral games this season.
The winner of this game will face Duke on Friday and that’s not good news. Virginia (0-1) and Boston College (0-2) were a combined 0-3 against the Blue Devils and two of the losses were by double digits.
Total players would most likely lean to the ‘under’ in this spot due to Bennett’s slow-it-down style, plus neither team has legit firepower on the outside. The total is hovering between 123 and 124.
No. 12 Miami, Fl vs. No. 5 Wake Forest (2:25 p.m.)
Wake Forest (19-9 SU, 15-10 ATS) and Miami (18-12 SU, 11-9-2 ATS) conclude the afternoon action from Greensboro in a matchup of slumping schools. The Demon Deacons and Hurricanes both enter Thursday’s tilt with 1-4 skids and both teams aren’t playing to the level of their overall records.
Miami might have 18 victories on the season but only four are in ACC play and eight of those wins were against the VegasInsider.com pick-up squad. We like to joke folks, but if you look at their team log, it’s very embarrassing for “The U.” Then again, it’s not a basketball school.
Wake Forest went 9-7 in conference play and it actually owns some solid non-conference wins over Gonzaga, Richmond and Xavier, the last two coming in overtime. The Deacons did beat Clemson (70-65) last Sunday to snap a four-game losing streak but will that effort carry over to Thursday?
The Hurricanes and Demon Deacons split the regular season series with the home team winning each battle. The ‘under’ has cashed in the last six encounters between the pair, including both games this season.
Virginia Tech awaits the winner of this matchup tomorrow. The Hokies went 2-1 against the Hurricanes (1-1) and Demon Deacons (1-0) this season.
No. 10 North Carolina vs. No. 7 Georgia Tech (7:00 p.m.)
The Yellow Jackets look to win their third straight game over the Tar Heels this season when they tangle in the primetime matchup. Georgia Tech (19-11 SU, 13-10 ATS) blasted UNC by 17 (68-51) in Atlanta and by two (73-71) in Chapel Hill. The ‘under’ easily cashed in both outings.
UNC (16-15 SU, 10-19 ATS) is still considered an elite program but this year’s squad is not close to being elite. Prior to last Saturday’s embarrassing 32-point (50-82) loss at Duke, the team did post back-to-back wins albeit against Miami and a struggling Wake club. On the road, the ‘Heels have gone 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS.
This game means a lot more for Georgia Tech, who is considered to be on the bubble. A win here would help but a loss would be devastating. The Yellow Jackets closed the year with just three wins in their last nine games. G-Tech hasn’t been a good bet in road and neutral games either, going 5-9 SU and 7-6-1 ATS.
The 143-point total seems doable considering the tempo that UNC likes to play, plus G-Tech has gone ‘over’ in four straight heading into this matchup. The only issue is the Tar Heels’ offense has been inconsistent, which has helped the ‘under’ go 18-8.
The winner here meets Maryland in the primetime matchup on Friday. The Tar Heels and Yellow Jackets both lost to the Terrapins in their only opportunity in the regular season.
No. 11 N.C. State vs. No. 6 Clemson (9:25 p.m.)
Clemson (21-9 SU, 14-13 ATS) is one of the tougher teams to gauge in the ACC. They have a talented big man in Trevor Booker but they tend to go away from him at times. When the Tigers do, they usually suffer like they did last Sunday at Wake Forest (65-70). Before that loss, Oliver Purnell’s team had won five of six, including two wins against FSU, which could be tomorrow’s opponent (see below).
The Tigers will face a less talented N.C. State (17-14 SU, 14-13 ATS) squad in Thursday’s finale but they’re playing better. The Wolfpack closed the regular season by winning three of four games.
Clemson beat N.C. State 73-70 on Jan. 16 in Raleigh but it failed to cover as a five-point road favorite. The Tigers led by 17 points at the half, but was outscored 42-28 in the final 20 minutes. The combined 143 points barely slid ‘over’ the closing number of 139.
Both N.C. State (13-11) and Clemson (16-9) were both considered ‘under’ teams this year, similar to a lot other squads in the ACC. Also, the Wolfpack are on a 6-1 ‘under’ run heading into tonight.
Florida State awaits the winner and gamblers should make a note that N.C. State (1-0) and Clemson (2-0) were both unbeaten against the Seminoles this season.
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SEC Round 1 Preview and Picks
By TERRY MASSEY
An imbalance of power between the two Southeastern Conference divisions creates one of the most oddly seeded tournaments in history.
The top four teams in the SEC East went a combined 24-0 against the SEC West, yet the SEC West's top two seeds, Mississippi State (9-7) and Ole Miss (9-7), get first-round byes while the East's No. 3 seed Tennessee (11-5) and No. 4 Florida (9-7) will play today and must win four games to capture the conference crown.
Don't be surprised to see an all-East semifinals as Kentucky and Vanderbilt, who will be home favorites at least for the fans, are expected to meet in the final.
South Carolina vs. Alabama (-1.5, 135)
These two teams met just eight days ago in Columbia with the Crimson Tide taking a 79-70 victory, and not much has changed since then to expect a different outcome today.
Alabama (16-14) closed out the season with an impressive win over rival Auburn, while the Gamecocks snapped a six-game skid by winning outright at Vanderbilt as 10-point underdogs, just their third road victory of the season.
South Carolina (15-15) lives and dies with guard Devan Downey, whose 26.2 points per game are tops in the conference. He dropped 23 on the Tide earlier this season but the rest of the starting five was held to just 17.
Mikhail Torrance (15.4 ppg) and JaMychal Green (14.3 ppg), who missed the South Carolina game due to a suspension, lead a balanced Tide attack which ranks 79th nationally in team defense to South Carolina's 239th defense.
That may prove to be the difference in the usually sluggish opener. The under is a combined 33-18 for these two teams.
Predicted score: Alabama 72, South Carolina 65
LSU vs. Tennessee (-11.5, 125.5)
The Volunteers (23-7) could be a team to watch in March because they have the ability to play big in big games, as witnessed by wins over then-No. 1s Kansas and Kentucky this season.
Tennessee has won eight of its last 11, including a 59-54 victory at LSU. The three losses came at SEC East foes Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Florida, and its current three-game winning streak includes wins over Kentucky, Arkansas and at Mississippi State.
The Vols are led in scoring by guard Scottie Hopson at 13.1 points per game, but five players average nine points or better. Power forward Wayne Chism is a beast in the paint with 12.4 points and 6.8 rebounds per game.
LSU (11-19), on the other hand, is a train wreck, to put it mildly, winning just two conference games all season. One came last Saturday against Georgia so the Tigers are comparatively hot. Tasmin Mitchell's 17 points per game won't be enough to take down Tennessee in its own back yard.
The Vols are 5-6 ATS as double-digit favorites this season while LSU is 2-5 as double-digit dogs. The under is a combined 34-14 for these two teams.
Predicted score: Tennessee 70, LSU 62
Auburn vs. Florida (-5.5, 143.5)
The Gators (20-11) lost three straight to end the season, all against East foes, but won their three previous games, starting with a 78-70 victory at Auburn (15-16).
Florida not only needs to beat the Tigers to stay alive in the SEC tournament but also to have a shot at the NCAA tournament. Twenty wins is no longer the magic number for major-conference teams and a four-loss finish would burst Florida's bubble. Florida probably needs two more wins to get in.
The young Gators feature five players in double figures, led by guard Kenny Boyton (13.4 ppg), and lone senior Dan Werner provides leadership and quality minutes.
The Tigers counter with top scorer Dewayne Reed (16.1) but depth and defense are their top concerns with a bench that brings fewer than 10 points per game and a defense that ranks 304th nationally. Auburn is 9-3-2 ATS in its last 14 games and the over is 15-7 on the season.
Predicted score: Florida 78, Auburn 66
Georgia vs. Arkansas (PK, 143.5)
Georgia (13-16) dropped to last place in the East with a season-ending loss to LSU but may have drawn a significantly weaker first-round opponent as a result.
Arkansas (14-16) lost six of its last seven games to slip into third place in the West after leading the division for most of the season. The Razorbacks beat the Bulldogs 72-68 last month.
Arkansas can pile up the points when guards Courtney Fortson (18.1 ppg) and Rotnei Clarke (15.5 ppg) are clicking but also feature a 302nd-ranked defense that has taken a big step back since the Razorbacks' old "40 minutes of hell" days.
Fortunately for them, the Dawgs will have a hard time taking advantage. Forward Trey Tompkins leads the team in scoring and rebounding (17.7 ppg and 8.2 rpg) and Travis Leslie adds 13.9 ppg, but the rest of the team brings little to the table.
The Bulldogs were on a scorching 15-4 ATS run before dropping their last two SU and ATS. The Hogs are on a 1-4 ATS slide.
Predicted score: Arkansas 68, Georgia 64
Big Ten tournament: Round 1 Preview and Picks
By ADAM THOMPSON
Going into the Big Ten tournament, only four teams have sealed up bids for the Big Dance: Ohio State, Michigan State, Purdue and Wisconsin. Two teams – Illinois and Minnesota – are hoping to earn an at-large bid with a strong run without having to win the tournament. The other five teams must win the whole thing for the automatic berth.
Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (+8, 116.5)
One team on a mission to prove its worth is Michigan (14-16), loser of four of its last five games. That includes a humiliating 64-48 Sunday afternoon defeat on national television to Michigan State in a game that wasn’t as close as the score would indicate.
But Iowa provides a cure for what ails the Wolverine. The Hawkeyes (10-21), losers of nine of their last 11, are in the midst of their worst season in program history.
Michigan beat Iowa in both regular season meetings (60-46 at Michigan, 80-78 at Iowa).
The Hawkeyes’ best days are in front of them with their three best players all underclassmen: sophomores Aaron Fuller and Matt Gatens and freshman Cully Payne.
Michigan, led by the talented Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims, is still playing for this season.
Prediction: Michigan 68, Iowa 57
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Indiana Hoosiers (+8, 135.0)
The Hoosiers were supposed to make a big leap in coach Tom Crean’s second year. That has not happened, and at 10-20 the team hasn’t jumped into the upper-half of the Big Ten that many had hoped.
One silver lining for their opening-round game - Indiana lost 11 consecutive games before winning its season finale 88-80 in overtime at home against Northwestern.
Crean declared before that game he would play those who showed an interest in defense. At the end of regulation and in OT against Northwestern, four freshmen and one sophomore led the way. Will Crean stick to that lineup in this rematch? He’s not saying.
Northwestern (19-12) is 3-5 in its last eight, but that includes a win over Chicago State and two losses to last-place Penn State. The Wildcats did beat the Hoosiers 78-61 at home when they were on a roll and were being considered a candidate for national darling.
One possible key in this game: Northwestern has been zone-heavy lately. Indiana ranks No. 183 in the nation in 3-point percentage (34.1). But in the Wildcats’ last seven Big Ten games, opponents have shot 40 percent from downtown.
Sophomore forward John Schurna (18.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 2.6 apg), has quietly done it all for Northwestern.
Prediction: Northwestern 65, Indiana 59
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (+6, 127.5)
Minnesota has been consistently inconsistent in Tubby Smith’s third season and is 6-8 in its last 14 games. That includes a 68-52 win over Wisconsin and 62-60 victory at Illinois, as well as an 81-78 loss at Indiana and 83-55 rout at the hands of Michigan.
Minnesota (18-12) did beat Penn State (11-19) in both meetings, but only by 5- and 2-point margins.
Penn State’s 6-foot junior Talor Battle leads the team in points (18.8), rebounds (5.4) and assists (4.2) and has been one of the league’s most dynamic players. And the Lions have proved they can play with anybody. Of their 14 Big Ten losses, seven have come by six points or fewer.
Depth is a big strength for Minnesota in this game. Five players average 8.5 ppg or more and 10 players average 11 minutes or more.
If Minnesota comes out focused and determined Penn State shouldn’t have enough weapons to keep up.
Prediction: Minnesota 67, Penn State 60
ACC TOURNAMENT
(at Greensboro, N.C.)
North Carolina (16-15, 10-19 ATS) vs. Georgia Tech (19-11, 13-10-1 ATS)
North Carolina, which enters the ACC tourney at Greensboro Coliseum with its lowest seeding (10th) in school history, will have to run the table to get a shot at defending its national championship. The Tar Heels went a dismal 4-11 SU and ATS in their last 15 games, including an 80-52 thumping at the hands of archrival and fourth-ranked Duke as a 15-point road pup in Saturday’s regular-season finale. Roy Williams troops went just 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS away from home this year, including 1-3 SU and ATS at neutral sites, where they alloweda whopping average of 87.7 ppg while scoring 79.3 ppg.
Georgia Tech, seeded seventh, finished the regular season on a 1-3 SU and ATS skid, including SU and ATS losses in its last two outings. In Saturday’s finale against Virginia Tech, the Yellow Jackets tumbled 88-82 as a five-point home favorite. Paul Hewitt’s squad went 3-8 in true road games in the regular season, but 2-1 SU and ATS at neutral sites, averaging 71.3 ppg on a stout 51.0 percent shooting, while allowing 64.0 ppg on 37.1 percent shooting.
Tech has cashed in eight of the last 11 clashes in this rivalry (6-5 SU), including four of the last five, taking both of this year’s meetings SU and ATS. On Jan. 16, the Jackets eked out a 73-71 road win getting 6½ points, and on Feb. 16, they blasted Carolina 68-51 as a six-point home chalk. The SU winner is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Tar Heels are 7-2 ATS in their last nine neutral-site starts, 6-2 ATS in their last eight Thursday games and 32-13-1 ATS in their last 46 coming off a SU loss, but they also own negative ATS streaks of 5-14 overall, 7-20 in the ACC and 4-10 against winning teams. The Yellow Jackets are 4-1 ATS in their last five at neutral sites and 5-2 in their last seven on Thursday, but carry ATS skids of 2-6-1 overall (all in the ACC), 1-4 after a SU loss, 2-6-1 against winning teams and 1-3-1 after a non-cover.
Carolina is on “under” stretches of 17-5 overall, 11-2 after a SU loss, 9-2 after a non-cover, 5-1 against winning teams and 16-5 in the ACC. On the flip side, the over has hit in Georgia Tech’s last four games (all in the ACC). Finally, the total stayed low in both of this year’s Tar Heels-Yellow Jackets meetings, following “over” runs of 4-1 and 3-0.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
N.C. State (17-14, 14-13-1 ATS) vs. Clemson (21-9, 14-13 ATS)
North Carolina State shook off a five-game SU slide (1-4 ATS), all in the ACC, to finish the regular season on a 3-1 SU and ATS surge, including Sunday’s 66-54 win over Boston College as a two-point home chalk. The Wolfpack, seeded 11th, went 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) at neutral sites this year, averaging 64.0 ppg and giving up just 54.0, but the competition was hardly noteworthy: a lackluster Auburn squad, along with Akron and Austin Peay.
Clemson, the No. 6 seed, went 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) in its last seven games, all in conference action, but it fell at Wake Forest 70-65 as a one-point road ‘dog Sunday to cap the regular season. The Tigers went 2-1 SU on neutral courts this year – beating Butler and Long Beach State, and losing to Texas A&M – but failed to cover in all three games, averaging 72.3 ppg and giving up exactly that same number of points.
Clemson has won five in a row against N.C. State, going 3-1-1 ATS in that span, including a 73-70 road win on Jan. 16, though the ‘Pack cashed as a five-point pup. The chalk is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six clashes in this rivalry, and the SU winner is on a 10-1-1 ATS tear.
The Wolfpack are on a 4-8 ATS dive in their last dozen games and are 2-5 ATS in their last seven following a SU win, while the Tigers have failed to cash in their last eight neutral-site outings and are 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday games. Clemson, though, does sport ATS upticks of 4-0 after a non-cover and 5-2 coming off a SU loss.
The over is 21-10 in N.C. State’s last 31 games following a SU win, but the Wolfpack are on “under” runs of 6-1 overall (all in the ACC) and 4-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. In addition, Clemson is on “under” rolls of 7-2 after a non-cover and 5-2 after a SU loss. In this rivalry, the January meeting cleared the 139-point posted price, ending a 3-0 “under” streak.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEMSON
BIG EAST TOURNAMENT
(at New York)
Notre Dame (22-10, 15-10-1 ATS) vs. (16) Pittsburgh
The Irish advanced to the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament with Wednesday’s 68-56 rout of Seton Hall at Madison Square Garden, easily cashing as a 2½-point favorite for their fifth straight victory and sixth consecutive spread-cover. Notre Dame fell behind 9-2 to start the game, but dominated from there as star forward Luke Harangody (knee injury) saw his most extensive action in more than a month, finishing with game-highs of 20 points and 10 rebounds in 24 minutes.
Notre Dame has matched its season-long winning streak thanks to a renewed commitment defensively, as it has yielded just 56.6 ppg in the last five, with four opponents behind held to 60 points or less. Prior to this run, the Irish were surrendering 72.7 ppg.
Pitt, which got two byes into the quarterfinals by virtue of being the Big East’s No. 4 seed, closed the regular season on a three-game winning streak and went 8-1 SU (6-2 ATS) over its final nine contests. The only loss came at Notre Dame on Feb. 24, an ugly 68-53 whipping, with the Irish cashing as a one-point home underdog. During their 8-1 season-ending surge, the Panthers scored 70 points or more in seven of the eight victories.
These teams have split their last four meetings, with the Irish going 3-1 ATS. Notre Dame’s 15-point win over the Panthers two weeks ago started its current five-game winning streak.
In addition to cashing in six straight games overall (all in league play), the Irish are on ATS runs of 6-0 against winning teams and 5-1 on Thursday. However, despite last night’s romp over Seton Hall, Notre Dame is still just 3-5 ATS in its last eight neutral-site contests. Pitt’s riding ATS streaks of 6-2 overall, 15-5-2 against winning teams and 9-4-1 following a SU victory, but the Panthers have failed to cover in seven of nine at neutral sites.
Notre Dame sports “under” runs of 5-0 overall (all inside the Big East), 20-8 in conference, 7-0 at neutral sites, 8-1 after a SU win, 18-4 after a spread-cover and 9-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600. Similarly, the Panthers are on “under” runs of 4-1 after a victory, 4-0 after a spread-cover and 5-0 on Thursday. However, the “over” is on streaks of 7-2 for the Irish on Thursday, 5-1 for the Irish against winning teams and 5-1 for Pitt versus winning opponents.
Finally, these teams stayed way under the posted total in their one battle this season, ending a 5-0 “over” stretch in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Cincinnati (18-14, 8-19 ATS) vs. (7) West Virginia (24-6, 13-16 ATS)
After surviving a scare in Tuesday’s opening round of the Big East tournament, edging Rutgers 69-68 as an eight-point favorite, Cincinnati pulled off an upset in Wednesday’s second round, rallying from a 10-point halftime deficit to eliminate Louisville 69-66 as a six-point ‘dog. The Bearcats shot just 35 percent from the floor, but dominated the glass, outrebounding the Cardinals 46-28, including 21-8 on the offensive end. After finishing the regular season losing five of six (SU and ATS), Cincinnati will try to win three in a row for the first time since Jan. 2.
West Virginia won three straight to close the regular campaign (2-1 ATS), capped by Saturday’s 68-66 overtime thriller at Villanova with the Mountaineers cashing as a three-point pup. The Mountaineers play stellar defense, allowing just 64.8 ppg this season and limiting the opposition to 42.9 percent shooting from the floor.
In the only meeting this season, West Virginia edged the Bearcats 74-68 in Morgantown, falling well short as a 13-point chalk. Cincinnati has won four of the last six series clashes overall, cashing in three straight and four of the past five.
Cincinnati is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven as a neutral-site underdog, but otherwise is on ATS skids of 8-23 overall, 6-21 against Big East teams, 9-25 against teams with a winning percentage better than .600 and 8-21 against teams with a winning record. The Mountaineers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine Thursday contests, but they’re just 3-6 ATS as a favorite of less than seven points this season.
The Bearcats have stayed below the posted total in five of seven neutral-site contests, but they’re otherwise on “over” runs of 10-4 on Thursday and 6-2 after a straight-up win. Meanwhile, West Virginia has topped the total in six of nine overall and six of eight on Thursday. In this series, the “over” has been the play in four of the last six meetings overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI
BIG 12 TOURNAMENT
(at Kansas City)
Oklahoma State (21-9, 14-9-1 ATS) vs. (9) Kansas State (24-6, 16-8-1 ATS)
The Cowboys kicked off the postseason by pummeling archrival Oklahoma 81-67 as a seven-point favorite at the Sprint Center. Four players scored in double figures, highlighted by Keiton Page’s game-high 24 points, as Oklahoma State shot a blistering 53.6 percent from the field. The Cowboys have won two in a row and six of their last eight, all SU and ATS and all in conference.
Kansas State stumbled to the finish line, dropping consecutive decisions last week to Kansas (82-65 as an 8½-point road underdog) and lowly Iowa State (85-82 as a 15-point home favorite). Those two defeats came on the heels of a seven-game winning streak. Also, prior to last week the Wildcats had been on a 15-4-1 ATS run, never once failing to cover in consecutive contests. K-State hasn’t had three straight non-covers since ending last year in a 0-7-2 ATS slump.
At neutral sites this season, Oklahoma State is now 4-1 SU and ATS, while the Wildcats are 3-1 (2-2 ATS). Also, the winner has cashed in each of the Cowboys’ last 24 lined games and each of Kansas State’s last five.
The Cowboys handed Kansas State one of its three home losses this season, winning 73-69 in Manhattan on Jan. 23 as a 9 ½-point underdog. Oklahoma State is 7-1 in the last eight meetings and 5-1 ATS in the last six.
Oklahoma State is on a slew of positive pointspread streaks, including 26-10-1 overall, 22-8-2 at neutral venues, 7-2 on Thursday and 21-10-1 against teams with a winning record. Despite coming up short in two games last week, the Wildcats are still on a 15-6-1 overall ATS roll, going 13-5-1 ATS against winning teams.
The Cowboys topped the total last night against Oklahoma, but the under is still 6-2 in its last eight at neutral venues, while K-State carries “under” trends of 3-1-1 overall (all in conference) and 4-1 versus winning teams. Finally, the last two meetings and four of the last six in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE and UNDER
Texas (24-8, 10-18 ATS) vs. Baylor (24-6, 15-8 ATS)
After eliminating Iowa State from the Big 12 Tournament on Wednesday night with an 82-75 win as a nine-point favorite, the Longhorns now get a rematch with the team that crushed them in the regular-season finale on Saturday. Texas has alternated wins and losses over its five games (1-4 ATS) but got drilled by the Bears 92-77 on Saturday, falling well short as a three-point underdog.
Baylor’s LaceDarius Dunn went for 30 points and six boards against the Longhorns as the Bears closed the regular season with four straight wins (3-1 ATS). Baylor has now taken three in a row from Texas (SU and ATS), including an 80-77 overtime win as a nine-point pup in Austin back on Jan. 30 and a 76-70 upset as 4½-point underdog in last season’s Big 12 tourney.
The underdog has cashed in seven of the last 10 in this rivalry.
The Longhorns had cashed in five straight neutral-site games prior to last night’s non-cover. In fact, they now sport negative ATS streaks of 3-16 overall, 5-21-1 against Big 12 foes, 3-14 against teams with winning records, 2-7-1 on Thursday, and 2-12 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
Baylor carries nothing but positive ATS streaks into this one, including 15-7 overall, 17-5 in neutral-site games and 11-5 against opponents with a winning percentage better than .600.
Texas has topped the total in six straight neutral-site contests and eight of nine against teams with winning records. The Bears are on “over” runs of 13-5 overall, 12-4 in Big 12 play, 6-1 against winning teams and 11-2 versus opponents with a winning percentage above .600. In this rivalry, the “over” has cashed in six of the last seven meetings, including both matchups this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BAYLOR and OVER
BIG TEN TOURNAMENT
(at Indianapolis)
Penn State (11-19, 14-13-1 ATS) vs. Minnesota (18-12, 14-15 ATS)
The Nittany Lions finished dead last in the Big Ten standings with a 3-15 record (10-8 ATS), but after dropping their first 12 league contests they rebounded to split the final six, going 5-1 ATS (3-0 ATS last three). Penn State’s three wins came against Northwestern (twice) and Michigan, but it finished the regular season with narrow losses to No. 11 Michigan State (67-65 as a 12½-point road underdog) and No. 7 Purdue (64-60 as a six-point home pup). After a 75-70 loss at Minnesota in the Big Ten opener, the Nittany Lions scored 65 points or fewer in 12 of their final 17 games.
Minnesota finished in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten at 9-9 (7-11 ATS), but it won four of six (5-1 ATS) to close the regular season, capped by Sunday’s 88-53 rout of Iowa as a 14-point home favorite. The Golden Gophers split the cash in their first four league games, then dropped eight in a row ATS before covering in five of the final six. Take away an 83-55 loss at Michigan on March 2, and Minnesota stepped things up defensively down the stretch, holding its final five opponents to 52, 58, 59, 60 and 53 points.
Minnesota edged Penn State twice this season, winning 75-70 at home in the league opener and 66-64 in State College, Pa., on Feb. 6, but the Lions got the cash both times as 13-point and four-point underdog. Penn State has cashed in the last three meetings, following a 4-1 ATS run by the Gophers.
Penn State sports a trio of 5-1 ATS runs: overall (all in conference), after a SU defeat and when facing opponents with a winning record. Minnesota is also 5-1 ATS in its last six overall (all in league play and 6-1 ATS in its last seven after a victory of more than 20 points, but the Gophers are in pointspread slumps of 1-4 at neutral sites and 2-5 after a SU victory.
At neutral sites, the under is on runs of 5-2 for Penn State and 7-3 for Minnesota. Conversely, the over is on streaks of 10-1 for the Lions against winning teams, 5-1 for the Gophers versus winning opponents, 5-1 for the Gophers against losing teams and 4-1 for the Gophers after a SU victory. Finally, these teams had topped the total in 11 of 12 head-to-head meetings (including five in a row) before last month’s contest at Penn State barely stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PENN STATE and OVER
MOUNTAIN WEST TOURNAMENT
(at Las Vegas)
Utah (14-16, 12-14-1 ATS) at UNLV (23-7, 18-10 ATS)
The Utes struggled with consistency throughout the season, never winning or losing more than three consecutive games, and they finished 7-9 SU and 7-8-1 ATS in the Mountain West. In fact, Utah split its final eight games (4-3-1 ATS), ending with a pair of losses to archrival BYU (71-51 as a 6½-point home underdog) and at Colorado State on Saturday (76-67 as a 2½-point road pup). With Saturday’s result, the Utes and Colorado State finished tied for fifth in the Mountain West, but the Rams got the higher seed in this tournament by virtue of sweeping the season series.
UNLV, which is looking to make the Big Dance for the third time in the last four years, closed the season strong, following up a three-game SU and ATS losing streak with four straight double-digit wins (3-1 ATS) to clinch the third seed in the Mountain West. However, those four victories – which were by an average of 23.8 ppg – came against teams (Colorado State, TCU, Air Force and Wyoming) that finished in the bottom half of the league with a combined conference record of 16-48. The Runnin’ Rebels, who get this tournament on their home floor, are 13-3 at the Thomas & Mack Center (8-6 ATS).
Utah surprisingly swept the season from the Rebels, winning 73-69 as an 11½-point road underdog and 66-61 as a four-point home pup. The Utes were the only Mountain West team to sweep UNLV and one of just two conference squads to beat the Rebels in Las Vegas. Still, the home team is 7-1 in the last eight meetings (6-1-1 ATS), and prior to its victory at the Thomas A&M in mid-January, Utah had lost six straight games at UNLV (3-2-1 ATS). Finally, the favorite is 6-2-1 ATS and the SU winner is 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
Utah has cashed in six of its last eight after a SU defeat, but it is 1-4 ATS in its last five on Thursday. The Rebels also have failed to cash in four of their last five on Thursday, but they’re 6-2 ATS in their last eight when coming off a non-cover.
The Utes are on “under” runs of 7-2 overall (all in conference) and 4-1 after a SU defeat, but the Utes topped the total in five of seven Mountain West road games. Meanwhile, UNLV carries “under” trends of 5-2 overall (all in conference) and 4-0 after a non-cover, but the Rebels are 6-1-2 “over” in their last nine on Thursday. Finally, the over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams in Las Vegas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
SEC TOURNAMENT
(at Nashville, Tenn.)
Auburn (15-16, 12-11-2 ATS) vs. Florida (20-11, 14-12 ATS)
Auburn struggled in SEC play this year, winning consecutive games just once over its final 16 games as it notched SU and ATS victories at home against LSU on Feb. 27 and Mississippi State on March 3, before ending the season with Saturday’s 73-61 loss at Alabama as a five-point underdog. The Tigers, who finished fifth in the SEC West, won just three of 14 games away from home, going 1-7 SU and 4-3-1 ATS in SEC road games, giving up at least 80 points in six of those eight contests.
Florida’s chances of sneaking into the Big Dance are likely slim after it finished the season on a three-game SU losing skid (1-2 ATS), including Saturday’s 74-66 loss at Kentucky, though it cashed as an 11-point ‘dog. The Gators, who are the No. 4 seed in the SEC East, split their 14 road/neutral-site games (6-6-1 ATS in lined contests), averaging 69 ppg on neutral courts but allowing 68.2. However, Florida dropped three of its last four on the SEC highway (2-2 ATS).
The Gators have won 11 of the last 12 meetings in this rivalry (7-4-1 ATS), going off as the chalk in the last 11. However, Auburn has covered the last two clashes, including a 78-70 setback in Gainesville on Feb. 18 as a nine-point underdog.
The Tigers are on ATS rolls of 9-3-2 overall, 19-6-2 in the SEC and 4-0-1 after a SU loss, but they’re just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral-site starts. The Gators have covered in 12 of their last 16 Thursday outings, but they are 3-5 ATS in their last eight overall and are mired in a 7-16 pointspread funk coming off a SU loss.
Auburn is on “over” stretches of 7-2 overall (all inside the SEC), 11-5 on neutral floors, 4-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 6-1 on Thursday and 5-2 coming off a SU loss. The over is also 11-4 in Florida’s last 15 Thursday games, and last month’s meeting between these two went high, following a 5-1 and 3-0 “under” run in this rivalry. On the flip side, the Gators sport “under” streaks of 19-9 overall, 4-1 on neutral courts and 8-3 coming off a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA
Big XII Quarterfinals
By Judd Hall
Most people don’t give first round teams a snowball’s chance in Hell when playing against the upper seeds of a conference tourney in their following game. That wasn’t the case last year in the Big XII Tournament when No. 1 Kansas, No. 2 Oklahoma and No. 4 Kansas State were all one-and-done.
Will the underdogs be biting on Thursday or do the favorites come back strong? Let’s look at all four matchups.
Texas Tech vs. Kansas – 12:30 p.m. EST ESPN2
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Jayhawks as 16-point favorites with a total of 147.
Kansas (29-2 straight up, 12-15-1 against the spread) won the lone regular season meeting between these clubs as a heavy 21 ½-point home favorite 89-63 on Jan. 16. Marcus Morris was the force behind that win for the Jayhawks by scoring 20 points and eight rebounds.
The Red Raiders weren’t expected to do much in the Big XII tourney after losing their last seven games of the regular season, covering the spread in just two of them. Yet Texas Tech (17-14 SU, 14-11 ATS) learned that the postseason can be a fresh start after dropping the Buffaloes as a one-point pup 82-67 in a rematch of its regular season finale. John Roberson helped pace the Red Raiders with 19 points, nine assists and five boards. Brad Reese also did his part coming off of the bench with 16 points and seven rebounds; Colorado’s bench scored nine points and had four boards combined.
Bill Self’s Jayhawks had been playing solid basketball after losing on the road to Tennessee on Jan. 10, winning 14 straight games. Gamblers didn’t really care about them at the window since they were 4-8-1 ATS in that stretch. And those poor efforts on the spread carried over into an actual final in Stillwater on Feb. 27. KU found itself completely outplayed by the Cowboys as a six-point road “chalk” in a 85-77 decision.
To Kansas’ credit, they shored up its defense in the final two games of the year against the rival Wildcats and Tigers. The Jayhawks have dominated K-State 82-65 at home and whipped Mizzou 77-56 in Columbia last Saturday. In those two bouts, KU out-rebounded them by a combined 68-54 margin. The result was two ATS covers and the ‘under’ hitting on both occasions.
In the lone meeting between these two clubs on Jan. 16, the Jayhawks rolled to an 89-63 win as 21 ½-point home favorites. The combined 152 points fell just ‘under’ the closing total of 156. Marcus Morris was the top player for Kansas with 20 points and eight boards. In the last 10 meetings between these teams, KU is 7-3 SU and ATS with the ‘under’ going 6-3.
Kansas has posted a perfect 20-0 SU mark when posted as a double-digit favorite this season. However, they are just 8-11-1 ATS in those tilts. Texas Tech is 3-12 SU and 7-9 ATS when listed as an underdog this year.
The Red Raiders has seen the ‘over’ go 14-10 this season. In the games where they were pups, the ‘over’ went 10-5.
Nebraska vs. Texas A&M – 3:00 p.m. EST, Big XII Network
LVSC has opened with the Aggies as 8 ½-point favorites with a total of 131.
Nebraska (15-17 SU, 9-14-1 ATS) is continuing on the tradition of the underdog knocking out the Tigers as a 10 ½-point pup 75-60 on Wednesday. The Cornhusker got a 16 point, nine rebound performance out of Ryan Anderson. But the ‘Huskers advanced to the quarterfinals thanks to shooting 56 percent from the field, while Missouri hit just 34 percent of its shots. The combined 135 points skated just ‘over’ the closing total of 132.
Texas A&M (22-8 SU, 18-8 ATS) is riding a three-game win streak, but more importantly for bettors is the fact that they’ve covered the spread in 10 straight contests. The Aggies closed out the regular season with a 69-54 win over Oklahoma as 3 ½-point road favorites on March 6. Bryan Davis was the catalyst for A&M in the over the Sooners with 13 points, 10 rebounds and four takeaways.
The Aggies claimed a 64-53 win as seven-point home favorites against Nebraska in their only meeting back on Jan. 9. The game’s 117 points went well ‘under’ the closing number of 130.
In fact, Nebraska has failed gloriously against the Aggies recently, evidenced by a 1-4 SU and ATS run in that stretch. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in that time as well.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State – 7:00 p.m. EST, Big XII Network
It certainly appears that Oklahoma State (23-9 SU, 15-9-1 ATS) is ready to give a serious run in the Big XII tourney after dropping the Sooners as a 7 ½-point favorite 81-67 on Wednesday night. The Cowboys were able to win the rebounding battle (30-22) and were able to take the ball away from Oklahoma 11 times in order to ensure the win. Keiton Page was the man of the match with 24 points, three assists and four steals. It’s the sixth time OSU has covered the number in its last eight contests.
Kansas State (24-6 SU, 16-8-1 ATS) undoubtedly needed the extra day off after closing out the regular season with two straight defeats. Frank Martin’s Wildcats were listed as 15-point home favorites in their 85-82 loss to Iowa State last Saturday. The most glaring problem for K-State was not only the fact that they hit 34 percent of its shots from the field, it is that they only have 12 offensive boards; they average 15 rebounds off of the offensive glass. Jacob Pullen did his part for the Wildcats by putting up 27 points with four rebounds.
The Wildcats don’t exactly have any guarantees about making it to the league semis since the lost their only meeting with Oklahoma State as 9 ½-point home faves on Jan. 23. The ‘Pokes were able to outshoot Kansas State in all aspects in the field, three-point s and on the free throw line for a 73-69 victory.
That win wasn’t a fluke for OSU as they’re 8-2 SU in the last 10 head-to-head meetings, but just 5-5 ATS. Although, we should pay attention to the fact that the Cowboys are on a 5-1 ATS run against K-State. The ‘under’ is 4-2 during that recent stretch.
Texas vs. Baylor – 9:30 p.m. EST, ESPN2
We’re not sure what happened to Texas (24-8 SU, 11-17 ATS) this year after being No. 1 in the nation, but they look like they might be back on track. The Longhorns upended a game Iowa State team as nine-point faves 82-75 on Wednesday night. Damion James helped push the ‘Horns into the next round by posted 28 points and 16 rebounds. In fact, Texas held a 44-28 rebound advantage in the game. This was the Orange Bloods’ fifth win in their last eight games, but bettors know that they have covered the spread in two of those eight contests.
Baylor (24-6 SU, 15-8 ATS) finished last season in ninth place, but wound up making it to the conference title game. This time around the Bears enter their first game of the tourney having won four straight matches and seven of their last eight. Gamblers have cashed in three straight contests. Not bad for a team that was picked to finish 10th before the season started.
The Bears enter this game with plenty of swagger as they swept the season series with Texas. Baylor dropped the ‘Horns with a thud as a three-point home favorite to close out the regular season 92-77 on March 6. LaceDarius Dunn punished Texas with 30 points and six boards. Quincy Acy also did his part by registering 24 points against the Longhorns.
The total in both showdowns this season went well ‘over’ the closing numbers. In fact, the ‘over’ has cashed in seven of the last head-to-head meetings. Now we could say that Texas has a chance to bounce back here since they have won seven of those 10 meetings, but the Bears are 6-4 ATS and have won the last three tilts with UT.
vegasinsider.com
ACC Round 1 Preview and Picks
By DAVE CAREY
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Boston College Eagles (-4.5, 123.5), 12 p.m.
The Cavaliers aren’t just in a late-season tailspin – if it gets any worse they might nickname the season “the Hindenburg”. Virginia is just 10-14 ATS this season, but its recent run of play has been abysmal.
The squad, under first year coach Tony Bennett, has lost nine straight, its longest losing streak since the 1961-62 season. During that span, Virginia is 1-8 ATS, including failing to cover in its past seven.
Here’s another reason to fade the Cavaliers: they haven’t won an ACC Tournament game in their past four tries. They’ll also be without Sylven Landesberg (17.3 ppg), who is suspended for academic reasons.
Boston College is just 3-2 SU in its past five, but a strong 4-1 ATS over that period, including a 13-point win over Virginia. In the team’s only meeting this season in Chestnut Hill, Boston College posted a 68-55 home win.
Prediction: Boston College 62, Virginia 53
Miami Hurricanes vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-4.5, 135), 2 p.m.
Both these programs entered the season with big holes to fill in their lineups from departed stars. But the Demon Deacons have surged ahead, finishing fifth in the competitive league at 9-7 and all but locking up an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament.
Wake Forest was in the midst of a late-season swoon, but claimed a 70-65 victory against Clemson on the last day of the regular season, making the Deacons 5-4 SU in their past nine but a sensational 7-2 ATS over that span.
Miami, meantime, struggled to a 4-12, last-place finish in the league. The squad was a solid 11-9-2 ATS this season, but a horrendous 2-8 SU on the road.
The teams split their regular-season meetings, with Wake claiming a 62-53 win in their own gym, avenging a 67-66 loss at Coral Gables earlier this year. Food for thought, though – Miami is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS on neutral floors this year.
Prediction: Wake Forest 66, Miami 60
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-3.5, 146), 7 p.m.
So just how bad has North Carolina been this season? How about a wretched 10-19 ATS record? Ouch.
The Tar Heels have been beaten in just about every way imaginable this season, including suffering a few damaging injuries, like one to the wrist of Ed Davis that will keep the forward out until later this month.
North Carolina also is 3-7 SU and ATS over its past 10 games. The Heels just can’t score the ball, posting a horrid 2-8 O/U record during that 10-game span.
Georgia Tech entered the year with huge talent and huge expectations, but finished a lackluster regular season with a 7-9 conference record. That inconsistent play was especially clear at the end of the season. The Rambling Wreck finished an awful 2-6-1 ATS over their final nine.
The Yellow Jackets, however, are 13-10-1 ATS this season, and covered the number both times in a pair of wins over the Tar Heels this season: a 73-71 victory in Chapel Hill, and a 68-51 win in Atlanta.
Prediction: Georgia Tech 68, North Carolina 59
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Clemson Tigers (-7, 131.5), 9 p.m.
Best stat of the first round of ACC Tournament games: Clemson is 0-8 ATS in its past eight games on neutral floors. That makes the team’s 5-6 road mark this year almost look respectable.
The Tigers are 6-4 SU in their past 10 but just 5-5 ATS, including a five-point loss to Wake Forest to end the year.
However, there is no other team that the Tigers would rather face than North Carolina State. Clemson has won the past five meetings against the Wolfpack, including a 73-70 win in Raleigh and a 63-51 beatdown at Littlejohn Colliseum.
North Carolina State, meantime, has covered in three of its past four games, but is a mediocre 4-6 SU in its past 10. Clemson owns this team and should take care of business a sixth straight time.
Prediction: Clemson 74, North Carolina State 58
NCAAB News and Notes
Information on Thursday's college basketball games.
Big East tournament
Georgetown lost to Syracuse twice this year, 73-56 in Dome (+5.5, led 14-0), 75-71 at home Feb 15 (-2, were down 13 at half); Hoyas are 9-3 in this event last 4+ years. Orange blocked 15 shots in sweeping series. Syracuse won four of last five games overall, is 11-3 in Big East tourney last five years; they're 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games as the favorite.
Marquette lost by point to Villanova in this round LY, after being down 16 at half; Eagles lost pair of 2-point decisions to Villanova back in early January. Four of Marquette's last six games went OT- their ten Big East road games were decided by a total of 22 points, with Eagles winning the last six, all by 3 or less points. Wildcats are 2-5 in last seven as favorite.
Notre Dame won last five games, allowing 56.6 ppg; they're gotten a lot better on defense in last month; Irish (+1) whacked Pitt 68-53 at home Feb 24, making 10-18 from arc in game that started current win streak. Pitt is 9-3 in last four Big East tourneys, losing first game LY; they won seven of last eight games, are 5-4 this season as a Big East favorite.
West Virginia (-12) beat Cincinnati 74-68 Feb 27, after trailing 39-33 at half; Mountaineers won five of last six games, are 3-2 vs spread as fave since losing triple OT game at Pitt. Bearcats won last two nites by total of four points, after ending regular season on 2-7 skid; they're 4-6 as dog in Big East play. West Virginia is 8-5 in this event the last five years.
ACC tournament
Virginia (+7) lost 68-55 at Boston College eight days ago, going 2-13 on arc, allowing 13 offensive boards; Cavaliers lost last nine games (0-6 vs spread in last six games) after starting ACC play 5-2. Virginia is 2-7 vs spread in last nine games as underdog. BC is 3-2 in last five games, but 2-3 as ACC favorite- they scored just 63.3 ppg in last three games.
Home side won both Miami-Wake Forest games; Deacons (+5) lost by a point at Miami Jan 9, shooting 36% from floor, then beat 'canes 62-53 in rematch Feb 2 (-7.5), holding Miami to 29.6% from floor. Miami is 1-5 in last six games, but 3-1-1 vs spread in last five games as an underdog. Wake lost four of last five games, covered five of last seven as favorite.
Georgia Tech beat North Carolina twice; 73-71 (+6.5) in Chapel Hill Jan 16 (led 29-9), 68-51 at home Feb 16 (-6)- they were up 14/30 points at half of those games, now have to beat Heels again. Carolina lost 11 of its last 15 games, covered two of last 10 as an underdog, losing by 32 in its last game at Duke (53-26 at half). Tech lost five of last seven games.
Clemson (-5) won 73-70 at NC State Jan 16 (led 45-28 at half), holding Wolfpack to 38.9% from floor, 4-21 from arc; Tigers covered four of last five as a favorite, won five of last seven games overall. State won three of last four games; they're 3-6 vs spread in last nine games as underdog, and lost last seven times they allowed 67+ points.
MAC tournament
Home side won both Western Michigan-Central Michigan games, with Western (-5) winning first meeting 70-61, holding Chippewas to 29.8% from floor, then losing rematch 74-66 (+3.5). Broncos won four of last five games, but are 2-5 vs spread as MAC dog- Bowling Green shot 59% against them in first round. Chippewas are 7-2 as a MAC favorite.
Eastern Michigan (+13.5) upset Akron 62-59 in only meeting this year, holding Zips to 34.7% from floor, one of only two Akron home losses in MAC this year. Eagles won five of last six games, are 2-5 vs spread as a MAC dog. Akron won seven of its last eight games, but is just 3-5-1 vs spread in last nine as a favorite; five of last six wins are by 6 or less pts.
Kent beat Ohio U twice; 62-60 (+4) in Athens Jan 9, then 74-67 (-8.5) at home Feb 17; neither team shot 50% from floor in either game. Ohio is 8-1 vs spread in last nine games, covering last five as underdog- four of their last 11 games went OT. Kent won five in row and 13 of its last 14 games, but is just 1-4-1 vs spread in its last six games as a favorite.
Home side won both Buffalo-Miami games; Bulls (-3) won 73-55 Jan 9, holding Miami to 35% from floor, then lost 73-62 (+4) on road, making just 36.1% from floor in game played last week, that ended a four-game Miami losing streak. Buffalo is 6-2 in its last eight games, losing last two road games. Buffalo is 8-0 in MAC allowing less than 70 points.
Big 12 tournament
Texas Tech lost seven of last eight games; they got crushed 89-63 Jan 16 at Kansas (+21.5), shooting 32.8% from floor- Jayhawks led 42-18 at half, had 18 offensive boards. Red Raiders are 5-8 vs spread as a Big 12 underdog this season. Kansas won its last two games by 17-21 points, after losing at Oklahoma State; they're 3-8 in last 11 games as favorite. .
Nebraska (+8.5) lost Big 12 opener 64-53 at Texas A&M way back on Jan 9; Huskers are just 3-14 in Big 12, but are 5-3 vs spread in last eight games as underdog- they shot 56% yesterday, 8-14 from arc, in decisive upset win of Mizzou. Aggies won nine of last eleven games (11-0 vs the spread), covering their last seven games when they're favored to win.
Oklahoma State (+9.5) upset Kansas State 73-69 in Manhattan Jan 23, holding Wildcats to 35.6% from floor; Cowboys won six of last eight games, are 1-4 vs spread as an underdog since that win. K-State lost its last two games, getting upset by Iowa State on its Senior Day; they are 8-4 against the spread as a Big 12 favorite this season.
Texas lost twice to Baylor this year, 80-77 (-8.5) at home in OT Jan 30, 92-77 (+3) in Waco five days ago- Longhorns had 18 turnovers in both games, are 7-7 in last 14 games, 3-14 vs spread in Big 12 this year. Bears won four in row, seven of last eight games, winning four of last six road games. Longhorns are 7-4 in Big 12 tournament the last four seasons.
Conference USA tournament
Houston is 5-8 in its last 13 games, 2-7 vs spread in last nine; they split with Memphis this year, losing 92-77 (+9.5, was tied at half, Memphis shot 61.2% from floor, 9-16 from arc), then waxed Tigers 92-75 (+2) at home Feb 24, holding Tigers to 42% for night. Cougars are just 5-8 in last 13 games, 2-3 as C-USA dog. Memphis is 3-5 in last 8 as favorite.
Southern Mississippi lost to UAB twice by a total of six points, 57-56 (+12) on road Jan 20, 59-54 (+1) at home Feb 17. Eagles are 9-4 in last 13 games, 7-2 vs spread as C-USA underdog. Blazers lost their last two games, to Memphis/at UAB, killing their at-large chances- they're 5-3-1 vs spread in last nine as a fave. USM shot 33% in their win yesterday.
Host Tulsa is 3-5 in last eight games, covered two of last 14; they're 1-8 vs spread in last nine games as favorite, was down 15 at half to Rice last night, before rallying to win. Hurricane split with Marshall, winning at home 73-69 (-7, trailed 37-28 at half), losing 64-58 on road (+4.5). Herd won seven of its last eight games, winning last five road contests.
UTEP (-4.5) crushed Central Florida 96-59 Jan 23, shooting 56% from floor, 11-25 from arc, in game Miners led by 3 at half. Knights lost four of last six games, but are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games as underdog. Miners won last 14 games, but three of last four wins were by four or less points. UCF's last three losses were by 4-6 (3 OT)-2 points
SEC tournament
Alabama (+4) won 79-70 in Columbia eight days ago, snapping 1-7 skid, outrebounding Gamecocks 46-26, with 18 offensive boards; Tide is 1-6 in last seven road games. South Carolina (+10) won 77-73 at Vanderbilt Saturday, snapping 6-game skid, winning on road for first time since its SEC opener Jan 9. Gamecocks allowed 77.5 ppg in last four games.
Tennessee (-6.5) won 59-54 at LSU Feb 4, holding Tigers to 30.5% from floor, 5-23 from line; Vols are 5-1 in last six games, winning last three by 9-7-16 points- they're 2-6 vs spread in last eight games as favorite. LSU is 2-14 in SEC, but 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games. Vols are 3-2 in this event last two years, with wins by 9-24-8 points (2-3 as a favorite).
Florida needs one win, maybe two to get off bubble; they beat Auburn 78-70 (-9) Feb 18, making 32-40 on foul line, forcing 18 turnovers (+8). Gators lost last three games, scoring 63 ppg in last two- they lost three of last four road games. Auburn is 10-3-1 vs spread in its last 14 games, winning three of last five, with losses by 10 at Ole Miss, 12 at Bama.
Arkansas lost last five games (1-4 vs spread), blowing 10-point halftime lead to Ole Miss last game; Hogs (+4.5) won 72-68 at Georgia Feb 3, in game they trailed in by 15 at half. Georgia is 11-5 vs spread in SEC this year, but they went 0-8 SU on SEC road- three of their last four games were decided by two points. Hogs lost last four on road, by 5-9-11-7.
Big 11 tournament
Michigan beat Iowa twice this year, 60-46 (-13) at home; Iowa shot just 30.9% from floor, then won 80-78 in OT at Iowa Feb 16 (-3.5), making 14-27 from arc. 14-16 Wolverines already turned down postseason bid, thats how bad their season is- they're 1-4 in last five games, 3-5 as a Big 11 favorite. Hawkeyes covered one of last five games as an underdog.
Home team won both Indiana-Northwestern games; Hoosiers (+8.5) lost 78-61 in Evanston Feb 7 (shot 35% from floor, 2-17 from arc), then beat Wildcats 88-80 in OT at home (+5) five days ago, outscoring Wildcats at line 26-9. Indiana fired its recruiter this week; not sure what effect this has on team. Northwestern lost four of its last five games.
Minnesota beat Penn State twice this year, 75-70 (-11.5) Dec 29, 66-64 (-4) on road Feb 6; Gophers are 4-2 in last six games, with three wins by 16+ points- they covered last three games as a favorite. Penn State lost three of last four games, losing last two by combined total of six points; they covered seven of last nine games, five of seven as an underdog.
Pac-10 tournament
Arizona beat UCLA twice this year, 73-66 (+6) on road Jan 2 (led by 15 at half), 78-73 (-5) at home last week (trailed by 10 at half); Wildcats are 4-5 on Pac-10 road and won last three games overall, by 2-5-2 pts, but those were all at home. UCLA lost last three games, by 2-5-10 points- they lost six of last eight games that weren't in Pauley Pavilion.
Oregon lost twice to Cal this year, 89-57 (+13) in Berkeley (was 48-21 at half), 64-49 at home (+7- Ducks shot 34%, 1-11 from line). Oregon is 4-1 in last five games, 6-4 vs spread on Pac-10 road- they had tough OT win last night. Bears won, covered seven of last eight games; they're 9-4 vs spread in last 13 games as favorite. Oregon is 4-6 in last 10 as dog.
Washington beat Oregon State twice this year, 76-70 (-13) at home (led by 10 at half), 82-70 in Corvallis (-3.5) five days ago, Huskies' fourth straight road win after starting season 0-7 out of Seattle. Huskies are 6-1 vs spread in last seven games as a favorite. Beavers are 6-3 vs spread in last nine games, covering four of last five games away from home.
Arizona State beat Stanford twice this year, 88-70 (-11) at home Jan 30 (shot 56%, 12-25 from arc), 68-60 in Maples Feb 25 (-2.5; trailed by 7 at half). Sun Devils won six of last seven games, are 5-3 vs spread in last eight games as favorite. Cardinal lost last three games by 8-2-10 points; they're 5-7 against the spread as a Pac-10 underdog this season.
Mountain West tournament
Air Force is 1-9 (2-8 vs spread) in last ten games; they're 4-10 vs spread in last 14 games as an underdog; Falcons (+11.5) lost 73-50 at home to New Mexico Jan 20 (Lobos were 13-27 from arc, AF 3-24), 59-56 (+21) at the Pit Feb 20 (AF shot 51%, 6-15 from arc). New Mexico won last 14 games, but failed to cover their last three games as the favorite.
San Diego State (-4) won 64-52 at Colorado State Jan 30, 68-55 at home (-15) March 3; Rams shot combined 4-29 from arc in two losses. Aztecs won eight of last ten games, are 6-2 vs spread in last eight games as fave. Rams lost five of last six games, are 3-7 vs spread in last ten games as an underdog. Aztecs might need to win tournament to get into NCAAs.
BYU hammered TCU twice this year, 76-56 at home (-14) Feb 2 (BYU was 11-25 from arc, TCU shot 35% for game), 107-77 (-11) five days ago (BYU shot 62%, 13-23 from arc). Cougars covered six of last seven games; they haven't won this tourney since '01, but won last three first round games by 13-27-11 points. TCU is 3-8 in last 11 as an underdog.
Utah upset UNLV twice this year, 73-69 here (+11.5) Jan 16, 66-61 at home (+4) Feb 17; Rebels were combined 4-24 from arc in two losses. Utes are 3-2 as MWC road dog, losing away games by 17-6-13-7-9 pts. UNLV won last four games (3-1 vs spread); they're 4-4 as MWC home favorite, winning at home by 10-10-14-31-16-18 points.
WAC tournament
Utah State beat Boise State twice; 81-59 (-14) at home Jan 16, 72-67 on road (-7) Feb 11; Aggies are top seed, but not lock for NCAAs, so they need this win to rest easy Sunday night. Boise won three of its last four games, covered eight of last 10, scoring an average of 86.3 ppg last three games. Aggies won last 15 games (12-3 against the spread).
Home side won both Louisiana Tech-Fresno State games; Tech (-10.5) won first meeting 81-73, making 11-23 from arc, lost rematch 66-59 on March 4 (even), shooting just 35% from floor. State lost four of its last five games- they're 1-7 in WAC road games. Tech also lost four of last five games; they covered one of last eight as a favorite.
Nevaada beat Idaho twice this year, 76-68 (-11) at home Jan 16 (had a 21-5 edge at foul line, was +8 in turnovers). 67-66 in Moscow Feb 10 (led by 14 at half, scored at buzzer to win). Wolf Pack won six of last eight games, are 3-5 as WAC home favorite, winning home games by 29-8-6-8-4-8-11 pts. Vandals are 4-4 as road dog, losing by 3-8-18-17-11.
New Mexico State (+3) lost 93-84 at San Jose State Jan 23 (Spartans hit 12-20 treys, shot 56% for game), then won rematch 94-82 at home (-6) Feb 6, shooting 52% for game, 11-21 from arc. Aggies lost four of last five road games, are 5-1-1 vs spread as WAC favorite, 1-0 on road. San Jose State lost seven of last nine games, is 2-4 last six as a road dog.
Big West tournament
Fullerton lost twice to Cal-Davis this year, 67-63 (-1.5) at home Jan 2, 92-86 in OT in Fullerton five days ago (-6.5); Davis led by 11-10 at half in those games. Six of last eight Davis games were decided by 6 points or less, or in OT. Fullerton lost three of last fiuve games; they forced 18 turnovers in 84-76 win last night in a game they led 45-33 at half.
Road team won both Long Beach State-Cal Poly games this year; 49ers (-12.5) lost 90-79 at home Jan 16, then won 78-72 (-4) Feb 11, in game they trailed by 10 at half. Mustangs lost seven of last ten games; their last seven games were decided by 6 or less points, or in overtime. Long Beach overscheduled in preseason- losses hurt young team's confidence.
Tips and Trends
Georgetown Hoyas vs. Syracuse Orange
Hoyas: Georgetown is certainly familiar with Syracuse, as these two have matched up in the conference tournament more than any other duo in Big East history. Georgetown lost both meetings SU to Syracuse by a combined total of 21 PTS. Georgetown allowed Syracuse to shoot 58 free throws, as the Hoyas struggled with the physical play of Syracuse. Georgetown entered the Big East tournament with a conference record of 10-8 SU. The Hoyas were assigned South Florida yesterday, and easily dispatched of them by 20 PTS. Georgetown is now 21-9 SU this season, with a national ranking of #22. The Hoyas are 9-5 SU and 8-5 ATS on the road this season. The Hoyas are 3-5 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Georgetown has yet to win 3 consecutive games ATS this season, yet they have that exact opportunity today. G Austin Freeman is the leading scorer for this Hoyas team, and he's had quite the past few weeks. Despite health issues, Freeman was able to rally his over their past few games with his inspired effort. C Greg Monroe averages 16 PPG and nearly 10 RPG this season, but has struggled mightily against Syracuse in both of their matchups this season.
Hoyas are 4-1 ATS last 5 neutral site games.
Under is 6-0 last 6 games following a SU win.
Key Injuries - F Nikita Mescheriakov (personal) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 71 (SIDE of the Day)
Orange (-5.5, O/U 139.5): Syracuse enters the Big East conference as the #1 seed, thanks to a 15-3 SU league record. 2 of those SU league wins came against Georgetown, both of which came in the past 7 weeks. The Orange ended their season with a SU loss at Louisville by double digits, their worst defeat of the season. The Orange still finished with a 28-3 SU record overall this season. That overall record earned the Orange a #3 national ranking entering this week, and are a logical selection for a #1 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Syracuse finished the regular season with an ATS record of 19-8, one of the best marks of any team in the country. The Orange were 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS away from home this season. The Orange were 8-3 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. F Wes Johnson was recently named the Big East Player of the Year, as he averaged team highs of 15.7 PPG and 8.5 RPG this season. This Orange offense is very efficient, as they only have 1 starter shooting less than 48% from the field this season.
Syracuse is 5-1 ATS last 6 neutral site games.
Over is 11-2 last 13 neutral site games.
Key Injuries - F Mookie Jones (finger) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 72
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Geo Tech Yellow Jackets
Tar Heels : North Carolina simply isn't accustomed to playing on Day 1 on the ACC Conference Tournament. 2004 was the last year the Tar Heels had to play in the 1st Round of the tournament. This season has been very difficult for North Carolina and their faithful, as they are staring a non-winning season record right in the face. North Carolina enters postseason play with records of 16-15 SU and 10-19 ATS. The Tar Heels were only 5-11 SU in conference play this season, placing them 9th in the ACC. North Carolina was 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS away from home this season. The Tar Heels were only 2-9 ATS as the listed underdog this season. North Carolina did win 2 of their last 3 games SU, but that lone loss was demoralizing for them. The Tar Heels lost to Duke by 32 PTS, the 2nd worst defeat in the history of Duke vs. North Carolina basketball. That type of inconsistent play has plagued this young Tar Heels team all season long. F Deon Thompson has been the lone stabilizing force for this North Carolina team, as he's started every game this season. Thompson leads the team in scoring, averaging 13.7 PPG along with 6.2 RPG this season.
Tar Heels are 1-9 ATS last 10 games as an underdog.
Under is 11-2 last 13 games following a SU loss.
Key Injuries - G Leslie McDonald (hamstring) is questionable.
F David Wear (hip) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 65
Yellow Jackets (-3.5, O/U 143.5): Georgia Tech enters their conference tournament on shaky ground, considering they've lost 6 of their past 9 games SU. The biggest shock during this 9 game stretch was their last game, where they lost by 6 PTS to a Virginia Tech team they were favored to beat. With that SU loss home at home on Senior Night, it's expected Georgia Tech must make the ACC Conference Championship game in order to make the NCAA Tournament. The Yellow Jackets certainly have the personnel to make a run, as forwards Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors are NBA talents right now. Lawal and Favors are each NBA Lottery picks when they declare for the draft, and the duo combined for 25.5 PPG, 17.2 RPG, and 3.5 BPG this season. The Yellow Jackets finished the regular season with records of 19-11 SU and 13-10-1 ATS. Georgia Tech was 5-9 SU and 7-6-1 ATS in road games this season. The Yellow Jackets were 6-6 ATS as a single digit favorite during the regular season. Defensively, the Yellow Jackets allowed each of their past 2 opponents to score in the eighties.
Yellow Jackets are 4-1 ATS last 5 neutral site games.
Over is 4-0 last 4 overall.
Key Injuries - F Kammeron Holsey (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 70 (UNDER - Total of the Day)