NCAAB News and Notes Thursday 3/18

Session II, Thursday
By Judd Hall

The hits keep on coming on Thursday afternoon as the 2010 NCAA Tournament rolls through its second session of the day. We’ll open up in San Jose as Vanderbilt and Murray State square off at 2:30 p.m. EDT. Kansas State will open its tourney run the Mean Green in Oklahoma City 20 minutes later. It all concludes with a quality first round battle between UTEP and Butler back at the HP Pavilion.

Murray State (13) vs. Vanderbilt (4) – 2:30 p.m. EDT

Las Vegas Sports Consultants has posted Vanderbilt (24-8 straight up, 16-14 against the spread) as a three-point favorite with a total of 140 ½ for this contest. Bettors wanting to take the Racers for the outright upset can expect a plus-130 return on their money (risk $100 to win $130).

The Commodores come into this game as one of the four teams to make the tournament from the Southeastern Conference. Vandy finished the year second in the East Division, but closed out with two losses in its last three games. The ‘Dores found themselves on the short end of a 62-52 decision against Mississippi State last Saturday as two-point favorites. They shot just 35 percent from the field, but only had seven offensive rebounds. Festus Ezeli put in just eight points and six boards to lead the team. A.J. Ogilvy, who is averaging 6.2 rebounds per game, had just four picks off the glass and two points against the Bulldogs.

Murray State (30-4 SU, 14-14-1 ATS) comes into this game having won 21 of its last 22 contests of the season en route to the Ohio Valley Conference championship. The Racers are one of the more complete teams in the NCAA Tournament as they’re the only conference champ to lead their league in offense (77.5 PPG) and defense (60.5 PPG).

In their OVC title-winning game, the Racers dropped Morehead State 62-51 as four-point favorites last Saturday. It was the third time in MSU’s last four games that they covered the spread. The ‘under’ has gone on a 5-1 run to close out the conference season. In the win over the Eagles, Isaiah Canaan pushed through for Murray State with 16 points and five rebounds.

Murray State has been tabbed as an underdog just twice this season, going 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS, with the ‘over’ cashing in on both occasions. The lone cover came in the season opener for the Racers as they fell to California as 14-point road pups 75-70 on Nov. 9. Over the last two years, Murray State is 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS as an underdog. The totals have gone 4-4 in that time as well.

Vanderbilt has gone 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS when posted as a single-digit favorite this season. The ‘over’ has cashed in a lot for bettors by going 7-2-1 in that stretch.

When you look at how these teams did against the rest of the NCAA field, then you’d point to the Commodores and their 6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS as the ‘over’ went 5-2. Murray State is 2-0 SU and 0-1 ATS against teams that are going dancing.

The ‘over’ has gone 7-3 in Vandy’s last 10 games, while the Racers have watched the ‘under’ go on a 7-3 run.

Either the Miners or Bulldogs will face off with the winner of this contest.

North Texas (15) vs. Kansas State (2) – 2:50 p.m. EDT

LVSC opened Kansas State (26-7 SU, 18-9-1 ATS) as heavy 16-point favorites with a total of 148 ½. If the Mean Green pull off the upset, they’ll be paying off at plus-1500 (risk $100 to win $1500).

North Texas (24-8 SU, 17-6-2 ATS) comes into this opening round contest having won the Sun Belt title for the second time in four years. The Mean Green have won 11 straight fixtures, covering the number in seven times. They came up with a thrilling last-second 66-63 win over Troy in the conference title game, where it was a pick ‘em at the betting outlets. Eric Tramiel poured in 20 points and 10 rebounds. George Odufuwa snared 17 boards and 11 points in a winning effort.

Gamblers taking the Mean Green have enjoyed backing them when they’re listed as underdogs, going 4-5 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in those nine times that it happened. The ‘under’ went 4-3 in that situation for North Texas.

The Wildcats were still in the running for a top seed in this tourney if they could win against intrastate rival Kansas in the Big XII title game. K-State couldn’t get past the Jayhawks, losing 72-64 as a six-point pup last Saturday. Denis Clemente racked up 17 points, two boards and four assists in a losing effort.

We shouldn’t cry too much for K-State for being the No. 2 team in the West Region. After all, they are listed at 5/1 to make it to Indianapolis.

Kansas State has been a quality team to back when they’re tabbed as a favorite, going 17-2 SU and 13-5-1 AST this season. When listed as double-digit faves, the ‘Cats are 5-1 SU but just 3-3 ATS. The totals went 2-2 that had a number on the board.

The ‘Cats are 9-5 SU and 9-4 ATS against other teams that made the NCAA Tournament. The ‘under’ is 7-6 in those contests.

The ‘under’ is 11-9 for the Mean Green this season, while K-State has watched the ‘over’ go 12-10.

Either Brigham Young or Florida await the winner of this game.

Sam Houston State (14) vs. Baylor (3) – 2:55 p.m. EDT

LVSC installed Baylor (25-7 SU, 16-9 ATS) as an 11-point “chalk” with a total of 150 ½. Bettors interested in backing the Bearkats to win outright can expect a plus-550 (risk $100 to win $550) return.

Sam Houston State (25-7 SU, 3-2 ATS) is making its first trip to the Big Dance since 2003 after beating the Lumberjacks as a three-point favorite 64-48 last Saturday. The ‘Kats dominated against Stephen F. Austin with Gilberto Clavell leading the way with 21 points, five boards and four helpers.

The Bearkats played only one game against someone in the field of 65. In that game, they were beaten by Kentucky 102-92 in Lexington back on Nov. 19.

Baylor enters the tournament having just had its five-game win streak snapped in an 82-75 loss to the Wildcats as a 2 ½-point pup in the Big XII Semifinals. The Bears actually shot better than K-State in that contest (54%-46%), but turned the ball over 18 times to seal their fate. LaceDarius Dunn has 26 points, while Ekpe Udoh scored 18 point with 11 rebounds. That loss also snapped a four-game ATS winning streak for bettors that were backing Baylor at the close of league play.

The Bears have posted an 8-5 SU and 6-6 ATS mark against other teams that made it into the NCAA Tournament. The ‘over’ went a strong 8-3 in that stretch.

These two clubs have played once in recent memory with the Bearkats winning 81-64 in Waco in 1999. That was Dave Bliss’ first year with Baylor…well before he found fun and exciting ways to sully a dead player’s name by claiming he was a drug dealer.

The ‘over’ has gone 15-7 for Baylor this season. And it is currently on a 5-1 run as we head into this tourney.

Notre Dame or Old Dominion awaits the victor of this contest.

St. Mary’s (10) vs. Richmond (7) – 3:00 p.m. EDT

Richmond (26-8 SU, 18-11-1 ATS) has been installed as a two-point favorite with a total of 134 ½. The Gaels are listed at plus-110 (risk $100 to win $110) to pull off a minor upset.

St. Mary’s (26-5 SU, 20-10 ATS) was largely considered a bubble team before the West Coast Conference Tournament began. They eliminated all doubt of getting an invite by securing the league’s automatic berth with an 81-62 win over the Zags as a 4 ½-point underdog on March 8. Mickey McConnell led the Gaels to the title with 26 points and six assists.

The Gaels has had the backs of gamblers as of late, covering the spread in four of their last five contests. The ‘over’ is 15-10-1 for St. Mary’s this season. However, the ‘under’ has cashed in on an 8-2 run to close out the regular season and conference tourney play.

Richmond thought they were in some danger of missing out on the Big Dance after falling to the Owls 56-52 on March 14 as a four-point ‘dog. A body of work that included wins over Mizzou, Florida and Mississippi State helped the Spiders gain one of the 65 spots in the tourney.

The Spiders have a defense that is giving up just 62.2 PPG this season to rank 42nd nationally. And they’re 17th in defensive field goal percentage by allowing the opposition to hit just 39.2 percent of their shots. On the attack, look no further than Kevin Anderson to get things on track. Anderson leads the team with 17.8 PPG and almost three helpers per game this season.

Even though Richmond has a strong ATS mark on the year as a whole, they are just 3-3-1 ATS in its last seven contests. The ‘over’ is on a 6-2 run for the Spiders right now as well.

You’re going to be hard pressed to find a team for our purposes that fared better against other NCAA Tournament qualifiers than the Spiders. They are 5-3 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in eight games against teams in the Big Dance. And the ‘over’ has gone 5-3 for totals players.

The Gaels are 4-3 SU and ATS in seven contests against other NCAA tourney teams. The totals went 3-3 in those spots.

The winner of this test will get to take on either the Fighting Irish or Monarchs in the second round on Sunday.

Texas-El Paso (12) vs. Butler (5) – 4:55 p.m. EDT

LVSC has tapped Butler (28-4 SU, 13-19 ATS) as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 130. The Miners are currently listed at plus-125 (risk $100 to win $125) on the money line.

The Bulldogs had very few problems running the table in the Horizon League this season with an 18-0 record. That solid play continued into the conference tourney, culminating in a 70-45 victory over Wright State as 7 ½-point favorites on March 9. Matt Howard led a unit that shot 52 percent with 14 points and nine boards.

You’ll understand if other bettors are gun shy when it comes to saddling up with Butler since they’re 4-7 ATS over its last 11 contests. Also, the ‘over’ is 15-12 for the year. Yet in the last 10 games for the Bulldogs, the ‘under’ has gone 7-3.

UTEP (26-6 SU, 14-13-1 ATS) lost 81-73 to the Cougars as a 7 ½-point favorite for the Conference USA championship last Saturday. That setback shouldn’t deter people from the fact that the Miners went into that contest having won 16 straight games, covering the number in 10 of those matches. The over’ is 12-10 for the year for Texas-El Paso and 5-3 in its last eight contests.

There is some value in taking Butler to win the West Region at 15/1 on Sportsbook.com. Meanwhile, the Miners can pay you off with a 40/1 return if they cut down the nets at the EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah.

The Miners may have a strong body of work, but they are just 3-4 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in their seven matches against other NCAA Tournament foes. The totals were 3-3 in the six that had a number assigned to them.

Butler has posted a 3-3 SU and ATS record against other NCAA qualifiers. That record is a little misleading as they’ve got wins over the Buckeyes and Musketeers – two of the better teams in this field.

Vandy or Murray State awaits the winner of this first round battle.

vegasinsider.com

Session III, Thursday
By Chris David

Editor's note: Brian Edwards, Kevin Rogers, Judd Hall, Chris David and James Manos previewed the 2010 NCAA Tournament in this Power Hours Special recorded on Tuesday. Listen Now | Download MP3

Thursday’s evening session features four games on tap and gamblers will be facing a pair of double-digit spreads, plus two contests that have numbers listed close to a pick ‘em. The first battle starts at 7:10 p.m. EDT and the last contest of the third session tips 15 minutes later at 7:15 p.m. EDT. Let’s break ‘em down!

Midwest Regional at Oklahoma City - No. 8 UNLV vs. No. 9 Northern Iowa (7:10 p.m. EDT)

If you’re looking for an old-school basketball matchup to watch in the opening round, then check out Northern Iowa (28-4 SU, 20-11 ATS) battle UNLV (25-8 SU, 19-12 ATS) from the Ford Center. Unfortunately, the winner of this matchup will most likely meet the top overall seed from the tournament, Kansas, if it doesn’t fall to No. 16 Lehigh in the first round.

The Panthers won the Missouri Valley Conference regular season and tournament behind a defense (54.3 PPG) that frustrates opponents into mistakes. Head coach Ben Jacobson and his troops are no strangers to the Big Dance, making their fifth visit since 2004. Unfortunately for Northern Iowa, they haven’t won any of its four previous trips but they did go 3-1 ATS. Looking at the four losses closer, UNI lost all four by exactly five points and the opponents – Purdue, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Georgia Tech – were all top-tier programs.

Fast forward to this March and UNI is still an underdog albeit a short one (+1) against UNLV. The Runnin’ Rebels earned an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament after losing in the Mountain West Conference championship to San Diego State (45-55), an opponent that plays a similar style to UNI. The Rebels can play fast or slow but head coach Lon Kruger has decided to put defense (63.6 PPG) first in the desert.

Offensively, UNLV goes as Tre’Von Willis goes. The shooting guard leads the team with 17.7 PPG and a lot of his points come from the free throw line (86%). Unfortunately the rest of the attack has been inconsistent, which is why defense has become the key in Las Vegas.

The Panthers are by no means an offensive juggernaut (63.3 PPG) but they play smart and they make their free throws (75.4%) too. UNI has a lot of experience, returning all five starters from last year’s team, plus nine of the top 10 players. Jordan Eglseder, a 7-foot center, has been capable in the frontcourt for UNI, plus they have six players that have notched 20-plus bombs from 3-point land.

The total on this game is listed at 113 points, which is the lowest ‘over/under’ in the 32 first round games. UNI has watched the ‘under’ go 21-7 (75%) on the season and the majority of totals were listed at 125 or less. Bettors playing totals on UNLV have seen the total split at 15-15 but the ‘under’ closed with a 7-3 run to end the season. Tournament trends for UNI have watched the ‘under’ go 4-0 in their last four appearances.

East Regional at New Orleans - No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 16 ETSU (7:15 p.m. EDT)

The New Orleans Arena will get to see head coach John Calipari and Kentucky (32-2 SU, 17-15 ATS) start its tournament run against East Tennessee State (20-14 SU, 2-1 ATS). It’s safe to say that the Wildcats should advance in this spot but will they be able to cover the 19 ½-point spread?

ETSU won the Atlantic Sun Tournament and finished the season with six straight victories. When trying to gauge how the Buccaneers will do against Kentucky, you can point to some non-conference clashes. They beat Arkansas (94-85) but lost to Louisville (56-69), Tennessee (66-78) and UAB (52-74). The problem with the Bucs is their offense (69.2 PPG), which has struggled shooting from the field (43.5%) plus their accuracy from the 3-point line (31%) and free throw stripe (66.3%) is pretty ugly. Now the A-Sun champs face Kentucky, who are ranked fourth nationally in rebounding and fifth in defensive field goal percentage (38%).

Laying 20-plus points with Kentucky this season has produced a 1-4 ATS record. Even though it’s a different squad in Lexington, we’d be remiss not to look at Calipari’s performance with Memphis in the first round over the last four years. Coach Cal and the Tigers went 4-0 as double-digit favorites in their NCAA Tournament opener during this span, but were just 1-3 ATS.

The total on the game is sitting at 138 and the Bucs don’t posses the firepower to keep up with the ‘Cats, so a low-scoring affair could be in order. However, Kentucky does have the athletes and shooters, if they’re on, to explode for 80-plus on anybody.

Barring a major upset, Kentucky would meet either No. 8 Texas or No. 9 Wake Forest on Saturday.

East Regional at San Jose - No. 6 Marquette vs. No. 11 Washington (7:20 p.m. EDT)

If you handicap this game based on the conferences, then Marquette (22-11 SU, 14-18 ATS) would be a no-brainer since it played in the highly regarded Big East and Washington (22-11 SU, 16-10 ATS) played in the Pac 10, which was awful this season. However, you still suit up for 40 minutes and if you look at the big picture, the Huskies could be the play in this spot.

For starters, Washington is the Pac 10 champion, whether you feel that’s an accomplishment or not. Lorenzo Romar’s team does enter the tournament with a seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS) and their 12-2 the last 14. The non-conference schedule wasn’t exactly tough but they were competitive in a loss to Georgetown (66-74) and the Huskies beat Texas A&M (73-64), even though the Aggies lost their second-leading scorer Derek Roland to a devastating leg injury.

Take away those outcomes and the Huskies have proven that they’re still a talented squad. Quincy Pondexter (19.8 PPG) and Isaiah Thomas (17.1 PPG) lead an offense that averaged 79.8 PPG and the attack shoots a decent percent (72) from the free throw line as well. Washington likes to play in the seventies and eighties, while Thursday’s opponent wouldn’t mind a game in the low sixties.

Marquette has some names to follow too, most notably Lazar Hayward (18.1 PPG). The senior leader helped the club rebound from a 2-5 start in conference play and eventually took them to the Big East semifinals, where they ran out of gas against Georgetown (57-80). The Golden Eagles finished conference play with an 11-7 mark, which seems good on paper and to the amateur player. If you investigate further, only two (Georgetown, Louisville) of those 11 wins came against the seven other Big East teams that were invited to the tournament.

Buzz Williams is a solid coach and he’s done a lot with this squad that lost three key players last year, but facts are facts folks. Sure they went 7-3 in their last 10 but four of those games were overtime affairs, which saw Marquette go 3-1. Are the Golden Eagles legit or just lucky?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence offered up some quality trends that favor Marquette in this situation. He said, “Big East clubs won all three meetings against Pac 10 teams this year, plus schools from the Big East have gone 6-0 against the number in the tournament against Pac 10 foes the last two years.”

The Huskies (7-7) and Golden Eagles (9-7) didn’t exactly boast stellar records outside of their homecourt this season, but they didn’t have losing marks either.

Marquette has been installed as a short favorite (-1.5) in this contest and the total (143) is geared towards Washington’s pace. The Golden Eagles can play either way but running with the Huskies might be dangerous for Williams’ squad. Plus you have to factor in the environment of San Jose too, which is in Pac 10 country. Traveling from Seattle is a lot easier than making a long-distance trip from Milwaukee.

A second round battle against No. 3 New Mexico or No. 14 Montana will be on deck Saturday for the winner.

Midwest Regional at Providence - No. 3 Georgetown vs. No. 14 Ohio (7:25 p.m. EDT)

When you size Georgetown (23-10 SU, 17-12 ATS) up on paper against Ohio (21-14 SU, 18-12ATS) it looks like a mismatch, which is why the oddsmakers have listed the Hoyas as 13 ½-point favorites. However, the looks may be deceiving here.

Head coach John Thompson III and the Hoyas boast some serious talent in both the frontcourt and backcourt. The four-headed monster of Austin Freeman (16.7 PPG), Greg Monroe (16.1 PPG), Chris Wright (14.8 PPG) and Jason Clark (10.6 PPG) all have potential to play at the next level. However, the team is lacking depth after this quartet and it showed in their record. Some pundits are a little surprised that a No. 3 seed has 10 losses, which is pretty high if you think about it especially when you consider that 45 of the 65 teams in the field has less than 10 losses.

Ohio wasn’t expected to win the MAC Tournament but it rallied for an 81-75 overtime victory against Akron in the championship. Armon Bassett, an Indiana transfer with tournament experience, scored 25 in the finale and will be looked upon for leadership against the Hoyas.

Gamblers will face a tough predicament here since both schools have been golden versus the number lately. The Hoyas closed the year on a 5-0 ATS run and that was against much tougher outs. Meanwhile, Ohio blasted the bookmakers with an 11-1 stretch to end the seasons, which included three straight covers in the conference tournament.

Even though the Hoyas’ defense will be more athletic, the ‘Cats have been known to put the ball in the hoop (74.2 PPG). And their defense (68.7 PPG) isn’t a brick wall either. When you look at those facts, an ‘over’ play might be the call here. The total is hovering around 138 points and if Georgetown hits its shots from the outside, this one could be ‘over’ early.

The winner of this game will advance to the second round for a meeting against Tennessee or San Diego State.

vegasinsider.com

Session IV, Thursday
By Brian Edwards

Bettors have a quartet of late-night games to wager on Thursday. Let’s take a look at all four of those matchups and more…

**Lehigh vs. Kansas**

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Kansas (32-2 straight up, 14-16-1 against the spread) as a 27-point favorite with a total of 150. As of Wednesday afternoon, most books had the Jayhawks as 26-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 146.

Lehigh (22-10 SU, 3-0 ATS) won the Patriot League’s automatic bid by capturing a 74-59 win over Lafayette in the finals of the conference tournament. The Mountain Hawks took the cash as 6 ½-point favorites. C.J. McCollum had a game-high 20 points and seven rebounds, while Zahir Carrington finished with 18 points, 10 boards and four blocked shots.

Lehigh has only faced one team in the NCAA Tournament field. The Mountain Hawks lost a 65-53 decision at Richmond in the season opener of a game that was off the board.

Since losing at Oklahoma St. on Feb. 27, Kansas has won five in a row while going 4-1 versus the number. The Jayhawks won the Big 12 Tournament by beating Texas Tech, Texas A&M and Kansas St. They beat the Wildcats for the third time this year in the finals, winning a 72-64 decision as six-point favorites. Marcus Morris had 18 points and eight rebounds to lead KU past K-St.

Bill Self’s team has failed to cover the number in six straight double-digit ‘chalk’ spots. For the season, KU is 8-12-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite.

KU advanced to the Sweet 16 last season before losing to Michigan St. If the Jayhawks and Spartans get that far this year, they’ll square off again. This time around, they would meet in the Midwest Region semifinals in St. Louis.

Senior guard Sherron Collins is the catalyst for the nation’s top-ranked team. He averages 15.6 points and 4.4 assists per game, but those numbers don’t tell the real story. Collins is the backbone of this squad with no fear whatsoever. He can take and make big shots and perhaps most importantly, he’s “been there, done that” in terms of playing a crucial role in KU’s run to the national title two seasons ago.

A No. 1 seed has never lost to a No. 16 seed in NCAA Tournament history. Assuming this game is no exception, Kansas will take on the No. Iowa-UNLV winner on Saturday night in Oklahoma City.

Sportsbook.com has KU listed as the plus-200 ‘chalk’ to cut the nets down in Indianapolis (risk $100 to win $200).

The ‘under’ is 18-12 overall for KU, 4-1 in its last five games. Meanwhile, the ‘under’ went 2-1 in Lehigh’s only three games with a total.

**Wake Forest vs. Texas**

This ACC/Big 12 battle will be waged in New Orleans and tip off approximately 30 minutes following the conclusion of the Kentucky-East Tennessee St. game. The winner gets the UK-ETSU winner.

LVSC opened Texas (24-9 SU, 10-19 ATS) as a two-point favorite with a total of 148. As of Wednesday afternoon, most spots were listing the Longhorns as five-point favorites with the total reduced to 146. Gamblers can take the Demon Deacons on the money line for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180).

Wake Forest (19-10 SU, 15-11 ATS) limps into the NCAA Tournament with five losses in its last six games, including an embarrassing 83-62 loss to Miami in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals. The Hurricanes, who led 41-27 at intermission, never let the Deacs cut the deficit to single digits in the second half and won going away as 3 ½-point underdogs. Ish Smith had 14 points and five assists for Wake in defeat.

Dino Gaudio’s team has been an underdog nine times this year, compiling a 6-3 spread record.

Texas is in the midst of an atrocious 3-17 ATS slide and has dropped five in a row versus the number. As single-digit favorites this year, the Longhorns are 5-6 ATS.

Rick Barnes’ club has played 12 games against teams in the field, winning five of those contests. Keep in mind that the ‘Horns lost three times to Baylor. As for Wake, it won (outright, that is) six of its 10 games against NCAA Tourney teams.

The ‘over’ has cashed in four consecutive games for Texas and is 17-11 overall for the ‘Horns.

The ‘under’ is on a lucrative 10-2 run in Wake Forest games. For the season, the ‘under’ is 15-10 overall for the Deacs.

**Montana vs. New Mexico**

LVSC opened New Mexico (29-4 SU, 18-12-2 ATS) as a 10-point favorite with a total of 135. As of Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had the Lobos as nine-point ‘chalk’ with zero movement in the total. The Grizzlies are plus-350 to win outright (risk $100 to win $350).

Montana (22-9 SU, 17-11 ATS) won the Big Sky’s automatic bid thanks to a spectacular performance by Anthony Johnson in the finals of the league tournament. The Grizzlies rallied from a 20-point deficit at halftime to beat Weber St. 66-65 thanks to Johnson’s game-winning jumper with 10 ticks remaining. Johnson finished with 42 points, outscoring the Big Sky’s regular-season champs 34-25 in the second half. He scored the Grizzlies’ last 21 points to propel them to a No. 14 seed in the Big Dance.

Steve Alford’s squad garnered the No. 3 seed in the East Region by winning the Mountain West’s regular-season title. However, the Lobos had their 15-game winning streak snapped by San Diego St. in the MWC Tourney semifinals. The Aztecs captured a 72-69 victory as 2 ½-point underdogs.

New Mexico has been a solid money-making team to support this year, but we’d be remiss if we didn’t note its recent 1-5 ATS slump.

Montana has thrived in the underdog role, cashing tickets at a 5-2 ATS clip. The Grizzlies faced just one school in the NCAA field, losing by a 63-59 count at Washington. With that said, they easily took the money as 19-point road underdogs. We should also note a 68-55 win at Oregon as 13 ½-point ‘dogs.

Johnson is the only Montana player who scores in double figures, averaging 19.3 points per game.

Juco transfer Darington Hobson has been the spark throughout UNM’s breakout campaign. Hobson leads the Lobos in scoring (16.2 PPG), rebounding (9.2 RPG) and assists (4.6 APG).

The ‘over’ has cashed in five straight games for the Lobos, but they have seen the ‘under’ go 14-12-1 overall this year. The ‘over’ is 6-4-1 when their totals are in the 130s.

The ‘over’ was on a 7-0 run for Montana before the ‘under’ hit in each of its last two outings. For the season, totals have been a wash (11-11) for the Grizzlies. The ‘under’ is 6-4 when their totals are in the 130s.

The winner will face the Marquette-Washington survivor in a second-round matchup Saturday in San Jose.

**Tennessee vs. San Diego State**

LVSC opened Tennessee (25-8 SU, 13-16-1 ATS) as a 4 ½-point favorite with a total of 133. As of Wednesday afternoon, most books had the Vols listed as three-point ‘chalk’ with the total reduced to 126. Bettors can take the Aztecs to win outright for a plus-140 return (risk $100 to win $140).

San Diego State (25-8 SU, 17-13 ATS) has been a bubble team the last couple of years, but it removed all doubt of making the NCAAs last weekend by beating UNLV 55-45 in the finals of the MWC Tourney at Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. Steve Fisher’s team won outright against the Runnin’ Rebels as a four-point underdog. Kawhi Leonard was the catalyst with 16 points and 21 rebounds for the winners.

Tennessee saw its five-game winning streak snapped Saturday in Nashville, where Kentucky crushed the Volunteers 74-45 in the SEC Tournament semifinals. The Wildcats took the cash as 4 ½-point favorites.

Bruce Pearl’s squad is the only one in the field that can claim a win over a pair of No. 1 seeds in Kansas and Kentucky. (Louisville has a pair of wins against a top seed but both came over the ‘Cuse.) With that in mind, UT’s players were baffled by a No. 6 seed. “A six seed? A six seed? That’s definitely motivation, knowing we deserved more,” Scotty Hopson told The Tennesseean.

The Vols have a veteran team and a balanced offensive attack. Senior center Wayne Chism averages a team-high 12.5 points and 7.1 rebounds per game.

San Diego St. owns a 6-4 spread record in 10 underdog situations this season. Meanwhile, UT has posted a 4-5 ATS mark in nine games as a single-digit favorite.

The ‘under’ has cashed at an incredible 18-7-1 overall clip for the Vols.

The ‘over’ is 15-12-1 overall for the Aztecs.

The winner will face the winner of Georgetown-Ohio on Saturday in Providence, RI.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

I’m not into women’s hoops at all, but I have fielded a number of e-mails inquiring about future odds for the gals’ NCAA Tourney. Sportsbook.com has UConn as the overwhelming minus-800 favorite (risk $800 to win $100), while the field (EVERY other team) is a plus-500 wager (risk $100 to win $500).

Check out ESPN’s Bobby Knight lobbying for a head-coaching job for the second straight year. At this time last year, the NCAA’s all-time leader in wins was expressing interest in a pair of SEC jobs at Georgia and Alabama.

Siena’s Clarence Jackson (14.0 PPG) was upgraded from “questionable” to “probable” on Wednesday afternoon. Jackson rolled his ankle at practice this past Saturday. The Saints have won first-round games over Ohio St. and Vandy the last two years. They are a No. 13 seed that’ll face fourth-seeded Purdue in the first round.

vegasinsider.com

East Regional Day 1 Picks
By DAVID PAYNE

No. 1 Kentucky (-19.5, 136) vs. No. 16 East Tennessee State, 6:15 p.m. ET, New Orleans

John Calipari can name the score. Will he decide the Wildcats should win by more than 19?

He didn’t last year, when Memphis, favored by 20, failed to put away Cal State-Northridge in an 11-point win. Calipari was 0-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite in the first round at Memphis.

Kentucky (32-2, 17-15 ATS) is 1-4 ATS this season when favored by more than 19 points.

But East Tennessee State (20-14) isn’t very good and especially struggles to score from the outside. The Buccaneers shoot just 31 percent from the 3-point line. With no regular standing over 6-foot-6, it’s hard to imagine ETSU being able find any baskets in the paint against Kentucky’s giant front line.

To its credit, ETSU did manage to hang around early in the season in road losses at Tennessee (78-66) and Louisville (69-56).

Prediction: Kentucky 89, East Tennessee State 66

No. 6 Marquette Golden Eagles (-2, 142.5) vs. No. 11 Washington Huskies, 7:20 p.m. ET, San Jose

Is an upper echelon Pac-10 team that has won seven straight is still inferior to a middle-of-the-pack Big East team coming off a 23-point blowout loss?

That’s what oddsmakers have decided.

Marquette (22-11, 16-10 ATS) heads cross country to San Jose as around a 2-point favorite over Washington (24-9, 14-18 ATS).

The Huskies want to run, but upping the tempo hasn’t been easy against Marquette’s methodical, ball-control style. Washington is 3-5 when scoring less than 66 points per game. The Eagles allow 64 points per game.

Marquette is one of the best free-throw shooting teams in the nation. Washington commits more than 21 fouls a game. That’s 314th nationally.

They have a common opponent in Georgetown. The Huskies hung with the Hoyas, before falling 74-68 in a holiday tournament in Anaheim.

Marquette beat Georgetown, 62-59 in early January, but was blown out by the Hoyas, 80-57 in the Big East Tournament.

Prediction: Washington 77, Marquette 74

No. 3 New Mexico Lobos (-9, 135) vs. No. 14 Montana Grizzlies, 9:50 p.m. ET, San Jose

There’s a lot of excitement about New Mexico basketball right now so it’s hard to see the Lobos (29-4, 18-12-2) getting busted in the first round against Montana.

“You try booking airlines [to San Jose], and it's almost impossible,” Lobos coach Steve Alford told Albuquerque KOAT TV. “I know what that tells me."

Led by point guard Anthony Johnson, an NBA prospect, the Grizzlies (22-9, 17-11 ATS) are the eighth-best 3-point shooting team in the nation. Johnson went off for 42 in the Big Sky title game against Weber State. Montana is 14-3 when Johnson scores 20 or more.

Colorado State is the only common opponent. New Mexico beat the Rams twice by 18 and six.

Montana lost by one at Colorado State in early January. The Grizzlies beat Oregon by 13 and lost to Washington by only four.

Prediction: New Mexico 67, Montana 63

No. 8 Texas Longhorns (-4.5, 146) vs. No. 9 Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 9:45 p.m. ET, New Orleans

Talk about the Collapse of the Titans, these two talented teams have no business sneaking in as No. 8 and No. 9 seeds.

On Jan. 16, the Longhorns were 15-0 and ranked No. 1. They owned impressive wins over Michigan State and Pittsburgh. They looked like locks for a No. 1 seed. Since then, Texas is 6-9 and just 3-12 ATS.

On Jan. 16, the Demon Deacons were 12-3, with wins at Gonzaga and against Xavier, Richmond and Maryland. They looked like legitimate ACC contenders. Since then, they are 7-7.

Both squads boast NBA talent, so the potential to return to their early-season form is there. The Longhorns are 3-3 since losing starting point guard Dogus Balbay to a knee injury in late February. Two of the losses came against Baylor, a long, athletic team similar to Wake Forest.

Statistically, Texas is by far the superior team -hence the rising point spread. But this is game is likely to come down to mental toughness. If either team jumps out to an early lead, the other could fold up the tents quickly.

The Longhorns own the experience and coaching advantage. No one’s saying Rick Barnes is John Wooden, but there are some rumblings about how bad Wake’s Deno Gaudio has been getting out-coached in the ACC.

Prediction: Texas 82, Wake Forest 68

South Regional Day 1 Picks
By PATRICK GARBIN

No. 15 Robert Morris Colonials vs. No. 2 Villanova Wildcats (-18, 147.5), 12:30 p.m. ET at Providence

In early February, Villanova was arguably the best team in college basketball, ranking second in the nation with a 20-1 record and having covered 15 of its first 19 lined games.

The Wildcats have faltered down the stretch, losing five of their last seven and are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 contests. They are led by guard Scottie Reynolds (18.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3.3 apg), one of the best players in the South Region.

Unlike Villanova, Robert Morris is on a roll, winning 16 of its last 19 games, including three games in the NEC tournament (2-1 ATS). The Colonials are known for their defense. Opponents are shooting less than 41 percent from the floor against them this season while only two of the team’s last 16 foes have scored more than 67 points.

Despite appearing otherwise, Villanova coach Jay Wright recently said his team is “okay…we’re getting better.” That’s hard to believe considering the Wildcats’ recent struggles. Villanova will undoubtedly win its first-round game but it’ll likely not be in a blowout against the defensive-minded Colonials.

Final score prediction: Villanova 77, Robert Morris 64

No. 10 St. Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 7 Richmond Spiders (-2, 134.5), 3:00 p.m. ET at Providence

Although it may have the best backcourt in the region, Richmond has the disadvantage of tipping off in the first afternoon of the Big Dance, only four days removed from playing three consecutive Atlantic 10 tournament games.

The Spiders’ guard tandem of Kevin Anderson (17.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.6 apg) and David Gonzalvez (14.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.3 apg) spearhead a unique and modified version of Pete Carril’s Princeton offense.

St. Mary’s has one of the tournament’s premier big men in 265-pound center Omar Samhan (20.9 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 3.0 blocks). In addition, the Gaels rank fourth in the entire country in 3-point percentage (41.2) and fifth in the nation in 3-point percentage defense (28.3 percent).

St. Mary’s might be at a bigger disadvantage than Richmond, having not played a game in 10 days since its win over Gonzaga for the WCC championship. In addition, Richmond coach Chris Mooney, who is friends with several St. Mary’s staff members, is very familiar with the Gaels.

“I know St. Mary’s very well,” said Mooney.

Final score prediction: Richmond 67, St. Mary’s 60

No. 11 Old Dominion Monarchs vs. No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-2, 121.5), 12:25 p.m. ET at New Orleans

Just when it looked like Notre Dame would not make the NCAA tourney, having lost seven of 10 games heading into the final week of February, the Fighting Irish finished strong, winning six consecutive prior to a 2-point loss to West Virginia in the Big East tournament. They are also 8-0 in their last eight games ATS, covering by an average margin of nearly 11 points.

Old Dominion was the best team in the CAA but, in the 12-team conference, actually had the third-worst ATS record (13-17). Forward Gerald Lee (14.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg) is the only player that averages more than nine points per game for the defense-oriented Monarchs. They rank fifth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 57.1 points per game.

The secret to Notre Dame’s recent turnaround is its “burn” offense, where the shot clock is ran for 20 to 25 seconds before shooting. The new offense slows entire games down tremendously, thus, keeping scoring at a premium. After allowing almost 73 points per game in their first 27 contests, the Irish have yielded an average of just over 54 points in their last seven games.

Star forward Luke Harangody (22.4 ppg, 9.2 rpg) is a big fan of the new offense. “With [the burn], he says, “I think we’re just very relaxed at all times.”

Final score prediction: Notre Dame 64, Old Dominion 54

No. 13 Sam Houston State Bearkats vs. No. 3 Baylor Bears (-10.5, 150), 2:55 p.m. ET at New Orleans

When Baylor found out at its Ferrell Center that is was heading to New Orleans for the opening round of the tournament, coach Scott Drew notified the crowd, “Road trip. Tweety and Lace promise the city will be waiting for you.”

Guards LaceDarius Dunn (19.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg) and Tweety Carter (15.7 ppg, 6.1 apg), both Louisiana natives, have already guided the Bears (25-7) to their most wins in history. Baylor is seeking at least a few more as a legitimate Final Four contender. If the Bears can make it to the Sweet Sixteen, they’ll travel next to Houston - another accessible site for their fans.

They first must get by Sam Houston State in the opening round. The Bearkats rank 11th in the country in scoring, averaging nearly 80 points per game.

However, they must face a Baylor defense allowing opponents to shoot only 38.3 percent from the floor (9th in nation) and, including forward Ekpe Udoh (13.9 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 3.9 blocks), one of the most lethal trios in college basketball.

Baylor will look to start the Big Dance on the right foot and impress many of its journeying fans in the process.

Final score prediction: Baylor 89, Sam Houston State 69

Midwest Regional Day 1 Picks
By ADAM THOMPSON

No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 16 Lehigh Mountain Hawks (+26, 146) at Oklahoma City.

A No. 16 seed has never beaten a No. 1 seed, and a historic win like that isn’t going to happen for the first time here.

Kansas (32-2) is the overwhelming favorite to win the national championship, and its size, speed, depth and skill is way too much for Lehigh.

Lehigh (22-10), winner of the Patriot League tournament, faced just one NCAA team all year, losing at Richmond 65-53 in its season opener on Nov. 13.

The Mountain Hawks can shoot from the outside, led by freshman C.J. McCollum, last year’s Ohio state high school player of the year. But size down low is limited. Jayhawks 6-11 junior Cole Aldrich and 6-8 sophomore Marcus Morris could have a field day – if they play in the second half.

Prediction: Kansas 82, Lehigh 48

No. 8 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels vs. No. 9 Northern Iowa Panthers (+1, 113.5) at Oklahoma City.

A true contrast of styles. UNLV (25-8) is quick and likes to score. Northern Iowa (28-4) leans on teams before its superior depth puts the game in its favor. The Panthers don’t let teams score – they’re No. 2 in the nation allowing only 54.3 ppg. Whichever team can control the temp will have the edge.

UNLV can go as many as 11 deep, and seven players average at least 10 minutes per game. The backcourt is its strength, led by junior Tre’Von Willis (17.3 ppg) and 6-8 sophomore swing Chace Stanback (10.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg).

The Rebels will need that depth. UNI senior center Jordan Eglseder (12.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg) goes 7-foot, 280 pounds. Forward Adam Koch (11.8 ppg), the Missouri Valley player of the year, is 6-8, 255. The top two frontcourt reserves each weigh 255.

UNI played just one team that got to the NCAA Tournament: The Panthers hammered Siena 82-65 on Dec. 12. UNLV played 10 games, going 5-5.

Prediction: Northern Iowa 61, UNLV 58

No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 11 San Diego State Aztecs (+3, 125) at Providence, R.I.

No single-digit seeded team is more of an enigma than Tennessee (25-8), which beat Kansas and Kentucky but also lost badly to Georgia and Southern Cal. It’s hard to tell which Tennessee team will show up. You’d think the Vols would get up for the big games, but they lost to archrival Kentucky 74-45 in the SEC tournament semifinals.

Sophomore 6-7 guard Scotty Hopson (12.5) and 6-9 forward Wayne Chism (12.5 ppg, 7.1 rpg) are the leaders, but both can be streaky.

Tennessee feels disrespected by its No. 6 seed, and that could be the motivation it needs to bring out its best for San Diego State.

“Since I’ve been here, we’ve been doubted and disrespected, so it’s nothing new to me,” senior Brian Williams told the Associated Press. “It just makes us hungrier as a team and more focused on knowing what we’ve got to do to get to the next round.”

San Diego State (25-8) is big and balanced. The Aztecs have four starters 6-7 or taller, and a 6-11, 300-pounder in Brian Carlwell waiting on the bench.

Four players average in double figures, led by the 12.8 ppg of 6-7 freshman forward Kawhi Leonard (also 9.9 rpg). San Diego State has never won an NCAA Tournament game.

One telling stat: Tennessee is 12-2 in games decided by single digits.

Prediction: Tennessee 71, San Diego State 70

No. 3 Georgetown Hoyas vs. No. 14 Ohio Bobcats (+13.5, 138) at Providence, R.I.

Most of the season, Georgetown was a solid defensive and rebounding squad. Most of the season.

Georgetown came to play against the elite teams of the Big East, but at times struggled against the bottom feeders, hence the pedestrian 10-8 conference record.

In the Big East tourney final, the Hoyas were outrebounded by West Virginia 40-23, but still only lost 60-58.

Still, the Hoyas are big and physical. Greg Monroe, a 6-11 sophomore, averages 16.1 ppg and 9.5 rpg. Guards Chris Wright (14.8 ppg) and Austin Freeman (16.7 ppg) give G’town a solid inside-out game. Depth is a concern, but their first-round opponent probably won’t be able to expose that.

After going just 7-9 in the MAC, Ohio (21-14) won two overtime games and came through with the conference tourney title. Here comes Georgetown.

While the Bobcats’ two starting frontcourt players, Kenneth van Kempen and Reggie Kelly, average 6-9 and 264 pounds, the team was among the MAC’s worst in rebounding and blocked shots. Against a big and physical Georgetown front line, Ohio will have to bring its ‘A’ game down low.

Prediction: Georgetown 74, Ohio 59

West regional Day 1 picks
By SCOTT COOLEY

Brigham Young Cougars vs. Florida Gators (+5, 146) at Oklahoma City.

Many bracket pundits believe both of these teams should have been on the outside of the tournament picture so the motivation to prove those naysayers wrong should be high for each side.

Florida dropped four of its last five games (2-3 ATS) heading into the Dance. All five starters for the Gators average double figures, but they don’t have much of a bench so foul trouble could be a problem.

Florida should be able to expose the interior of BYU as the Cougars really have no one that can match up with center Vernon Macklin. If the Mormon boys are going to win this one, they will have to maintain a fast pace and shoot close to 60 percent.

BYU’s starting point guard, Tyler Haws, suffered a broken left orbital in the conference tournament but is expected to play on Thursday.

The Cougs have lost seven straight NCAA Tournament games (1-6 ATS).

Prediction: Florida 78, BYU 73

Kansas State Wildcats vs. North Texas Mean Green Eagles (-16, 147.5) at Oklahoma City.

Kansas State head coach Frank Martin believes his team is one of the best in the country and is prepared as it can be for a deep run in the tourney.

"We were right there and just couldn't finish it off,” Martin said of the Big 12 championship game. “So we're not going to be any more prepared because of the lessons this season has taught us."

The Wildcats will rack up plenty of fouls but also force a lot of turnovers with that aggressive style which allows them to push the ball in transition.

The North Texas campus in Denton is only 2.5 hours from Oklahoma City. That being said, the Mean Green doesn’t hold an equivalent fan base to that of a major conference team so there likely won’t be much of a home-court advantage.

The Eagles played Texas A&M in a 75-65 game on the road earlier this year so the team clearly has the ability to compete with the Big 12. North Texas is a junior- and senior-laden squad that had four starters average double digits this season.

The No. 15 seed is 4-96 against the No. 2 seed since the inception of the NCAA Tournament.

Prediction: Kansas State 85, North Texas 73

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Murray State Racers (+3, 140.5) at San Jose.

The Murray State Racers out of the Ohio Valley Conference put together a 30-win season but only played one major conference opponent all year. They were competitive in that game, losing to Cal on the road 75-70.

Murray State will have some extra motivation in its back pocket in this game, playing for teammate Picasso Simmons, who lost his mother in a car accident on Monday. The reserve guard will be at the game.

"His mom was real, real happy that he was getting a chance to go," a team spokesman said. "Our basketball team is a family. We had all the jubilation of [Sunday], and something like this puts it into perspective."

Vandy looked disoriented against Mississippi State in the SEC semifinals and is susceptible of a letdown. The Commodores were ousted from the tourney two years ago as the No. 4 seed by a lower-tiered conference opponent in Siena.

For the Commodores to win, they have to get production from center A.J. Ogilvy who has disappeared recently. The Racers will be forced to double-team Ogilvy with their tallest player at 6-9 and the big Aussie checking in at 6-11, 250.

Prediction: Vanderbilt 72, Murray State 70

Butler Bulldogs vs. UTEP Miners (+2.5, 130) at San Jose.

Butler enters the Madness with the nation’s longest winning streak at 20 games (9-11 ATS) while UTEP has been just as hot, winning 16 of its last 17 outings (10-7 ATS).

These two offenses are night and day in comparison. The Bulldogs like to grind it out in a half-court offense and the Miners are eager to run with anyone. So which offense will get sucked into playing the speed the other wants?

The Miners averaged 75.8 ppg during the season but the Bulldogs only gave up 70 or more three times all year, losing all three games.

To have success, this disciplined and defensive-minded Butler squad will have to slow down Randy Culpepper (18.0 ppg) and Louisville transfer Derrick Caracter (13.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg)

Prediction: Butler 64, UTEP 60

Thursday's NCAA games

Thursday, March 18

Ohio U won its last five games, with two of last four going OT; they're 10-1 vs spread in last 11 games, but lost by 25 to Pitt on only game vs a Big East foe. MAC teams are 6-3 vs spread in last nine first round tilts, but are 0-6 SU in first round. Georgetown won four of last five games, is 7-4 vs spread in last 11 as a favorite. MAC underdogs are 33-38.

San Diego State won nine of last 10 games, covered 12 of last 15, seven of nine as underdog; MWC underdogs are 15-13 vs spread. Tennessee is 5-1 in last six games, but just 3-7 vs spread in last 10 games as favorite. Pearl is 3-1 in first round with Vols, winning by 2-35-15 points. Aztecs are 11-2 in non-league games, losing at St Mary's by 22, at ASU by 3.

Villanova lost five of last seven games, but is 7-3-1 vs spread as favorite in non-league games; Big East favorites are 50-53 vs spread in non-league games. Robert Morris ranks 36th in forcing turnovers, but Wildcats have veteran crew on perimeter. NEC covered six of last seven tourney games, which includes two play-in wins. #2 seeds are 7-5 vs spread last 3 years.

St Mary's won last five games; they're 13-2 outside WCC, losing to USC and Vanderbilt; Gaels haven't played in 10 days. Richmond played A-14 title game Sunday. Spiders are 11-4 outside A-14, losing at VCU, Wake, So Carolina and Wm Mary. WCC dogs are 24-30 vs spread. A-14 faves are 32-26. Early game/cross-country travel for Gaels favors Richmond.

Did Jacksonville's NIT win Tuesday give East Tennessee St confidence? Buccaneers lost by 10 to Pitt in first round LY- they lost to Louisville by 13, Tennessee by 12 this year, so they're not stiffs. Calipari's Tigers struggled with Northridge in first round LY- Wildcats won SEC title on Sunday, in OT. #1 seed in East is 5-13 vs spread in last 18 1st rounders.

Wake Forest lost five of last six games, but covered six of last eight as an underdog. Texas is 7-9 in last 16 games, 3-11 vs spread in last 14 games as a favorite. Longhorns won last four first round games by 8-12-20-14 points, but Wake has decided edge at PG here with senior Smith, who is dreadful shooter but good leader. ACC underdogs are 12-8 vs spread.

Sam Houston State lost at Kentucky by 10, beat Auburn by 18' they're shooting 38% from arc, rank 2nd in country in assist/basket ratio, but in three tourneys since Northwestern State upset Iowa, Southland teams lost by 13-24-15 points. Baylor has good big man, but against team that shoots 3's, that matters less. Bears are 3-0 as a double digit favorite.

Old Dominion won eight of last nine games; they're first in country in %age of points scored on 2-point shots, and offensive rebounding %age. These two teams rank 297/304 in pace, so low-possession game likely. Notre Dame won six of last seven games; its last five losses are all by 3 or less points. CAA teams are 3-10 in last thirteen first round games.

Patriot League teams lost last three first round games by 10-15-15 pts since Bucknell won in '05/'06 ('05 win was vs Kansas); Lehigh lost by 18 to Dayton, Richmond by 12, top teams they played this year. Kansas is 3-3 vs spread in last six first round games, 5-6 as non-league favorite this year. Big 12 favorites are 45-28 against spread in non-conference games.

Northern Iowa allowed just 46.8 ppg in winning last four games; they're 10-1 outside MVC, beating MWC's Wyoming by 18; Panthers are #342 in pace, so they want to slow down UNLV team that won six of its last seven games (only one was on road); they beat MVC's Southern Illinois by 9. UNI ranks 90th in experience, UNLV is 254th, so edge Panthers.

North Texas won last 10 games, is 6-1-1 vs spread as underdog; they've lost by 14 at Oklahoma State, 10 at Texas A&M, so they shouldn't be in awe of K-State team that is 2-3 in last five games, losing on Senior Day to Iowa State. Odd stat: #2 seed in West is 2-11 vs spread in first round last 13 years. K-State was last favored in an NCAA game back in 1993.

Florida lost four of last five games, BYU won seven of last nine; Gators are working on 12-0 tourney win streak, but those players are long gone. BYU hasn't won tourney game since '93, losing last six first round games (were favored in last two) but last time they won in NCAAs was as #7 seed, last time they were this high a seed. Gators are 6-3 as NCAA dog.

UTEP is 16-1 in last 17 games, losing C-USA final Saturday; they gave up 75+ points in their losses, 81+ in four of five. Miners played 263rd ranked non-league schedule, Butler #4, so Bulldogs more battle-tested. Butler won last 20 games, but lost by 10 at C-USA's UAB early in year. #12 seeds are 5-3 SU vs 5 seeds in first round the last two tournaments.

Mother one of one Murray State's players died in car wreck earlier this week, so Racers dealing with tragedy; Murray is in tournament for first time since '06- they lost last nine first round games, covering one of last four. Racers are #12 in offensive rebounding, Vandy is #256 on defensive boards. Commodores want to get ball inside against smaller Murray St.

Big Sky teams are 1-9 in first round last 10 years, but Montana was the winner, upsetting Nevada (+5.5) in '06; Griz was down 20 at half in Big Sky final, were brought back by prolific G Johnson, who scored 34 of 42 Montana points in second half. New Mexico is 15-1 in last 16 games, is 0-5 vs spread in last five as fave- they beat Big Sky's No Arizona by 39.

Washington won last seven games, all road/neutral games; they lost by 8 on neutral floor to Big East's Georgetown in fall. At one point, Huskies were 7-7 in Pac-10, then caught fire. Marquette is 11-3 in last 14 games, with six of last eight decided by 4 or less points, or in OT. Battle of pace as Washington plays 10th-fastest games in country, Marquette 305th.

MIDWEST REGION

(14) Ohio (21-14, 18-12 ATS) vs. (3) Georgetown (23-10, 17-12 ATS)

Ohio has ripped off five consecutive SU and ATS wins and is 7-1 SU and ATS in its last eight starts. The Bobcats finished off their three-game run through the Mid-American Conference tournament with an 81-75 victory over Akron as a 1½-point underdog Saturday. Those three games were Ohio’s only neutral-site contests all season.

Georgetown has cashed in a season-best five straight games (4-1 SU), winning three in row en route to the Big East Conference final before coming up just short to West Virginia, losing 60-58 as a 2½-point ‘dog Saturday. The Hoyas have been superb on neutral floors this season, going 5-1 SU while covering in all six outings, averaging 74.0 ppg on 48.5 percent shooting, while giving up 63.5 ppg on 39.3 percent shooting.

Ohio is making its 12th Tournament appearance, the last coming in 2005. The Bobcats last won a tourney game in 1983. The Hoyas failed to make the Big Dance last year, ending a three-year tourney streak. They haven’t lost a first-round game since 1997, making it to at least the second round four straight times.

The Bobcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against Big East opponents, but they own positive ATS streaks of 11-1 overall, 5-0 after a SU win, 8-0 against winning teams, 6-0 as a pup and 4-1 at neutral sites. The Hoyas, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last five as a tourney chalk, though they are on ATS surges of 4-0 after a spread-cover, 5-0 against winning teams, 6-0 at neutral sites, 4-0 as a neutral-site chalk and 9-2-1 outside the Big East.

The under has hit in five straight non-conference games for Ohio, but the Bobcats are on “over” rolls of 4-1 overall, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 6-2 after a SU win, 8-2 on Thursday and 6-2-1 as an underdog. Georgetown is on “under” stretches of 10-3 in the Tournament, 4-1 as a Tournament chalk, 10-4 with the Hoyas laying 13 or more points and 49-23 coming off a spread-cover, but the over is 8-2 with John Thompson III’s troops coming off a SU loss.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGETOWN

(11) San Diego State (25-8, 17-13 ATS) vs. (6) Tennessee (25-8, 13-16-1 ATS)

San Diego State made a big run to reach the Big Dance, winning six of its last seven regular-season games (4-3 ATS), then sweeping through three games (2-1 ATS) to win the Mountain West Conference tournament title. In Saturday’s final, the Aztecs dropped host UNLV 55-45 as a four-point underdog. Over the past five games (all SU wins), Steve Fisher’s squad has averaged 65.6 ppg on stout 49.8 percent shooting, while allowing just 56.4 on 41.3 percent shooting.

Tennessee won five in a row, including its first two games in the SEC tourney to reach the semifinals in Nashville, before getting hammered by No. 2 Kentucky 74-45 Saturday as a 4½-point pup. On the road, the Volunteers have been outscored by an average of about four ppg this season (67.6-63.9), though on neutral courts, they’ve averaged 69.9 ppg and allowed 62.0.

San Diego State has never won a game in five previous Tournament appearances, most recently losing 87-83 to Indiana in a first-round contest in 2006. This is the fifth straight year the Volunteers have gone dancing, but last year they bowed out in the first round, losing by two points to Oklahoma State as a three-point favorite.

The Aztecs are on a handful of positive pointspread streaks, including 9-4 overall, 6-2 after a non-cover, 7-3 after a SU win, 4-1 as a ‘dog, 5-1 when catching less than seven points and 4-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600. That said, they are also just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 neutral-court outings and 2-6 ATS in their last eight Thursday games.

The Vols are on ATS dives of 5-11 overall, 1-6 after a SU loss, 3-7 giving points, 3-7-1 in the Big Dance and 2-7-1 as a tourney chalk, though they’ve gone 4-0 ATS in their last four after a pointspread loss.

San Diego State is on “over” runs of 8-3 as an underdog and 11-4 as a neutral-site pup, but the under has hit in 22 of its last 28 non-conference contests and 13 of its last 19 neutral-site starts. Likewise, Tennessee is on “under” tears of 20-7-1 overall, 7-2 in non-conference play, 8-0 on Thursday, 6-1-1 as a chalk, 5-0-1 at neutral sites, 4-0-1 as a neutral-site favorite, 4-0 after a SU loss and 9-1-1 following a non-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

MIDWEST REGION

(16) Lehigh (22-10, 3-0 ATS) vs. (1) Kansas (32-2, 14-16-1 ATS)

Lehigh, the regular-season and tournament champ from the Patriot League, has won five in a row and seven of eight. The last three wins came in the conference tourney (3-0 ATS), and all by at least 15 points, including a 74-59 rout of Lafayette in Friday’s title game. However, those three contests also marked the only lined games all season for the Mountain Hawks, who averaged 75.1 ppg and allowed 70.0 ppg on the year.

Kansas claimed the regular-season and tournament titles in the Big 12, and has lost just once in its last 19 games (8-10-1 ATS). In Saturday’s conference final against Kansas State, the Jayhawks won 72-64 as a six-point favorite to cash for the fourth time in the last five games, their best ATS stretch of the season. Bill Self fields the nation’s fifth-best scoring team, at 81.8 ppg on 48.8 percent shooting (10th), including a sturdy 40.9 percent from three-point range (fifth). Kansas is allowing 63.8 ppg with a defense that rates third nationally in shooting percentage (37.7 percent).

Lehigh is back in the Tournament for the fourth time overall and the first time since 2004. This is the Jayhawks’ 21st consecutive Tournament appearance, the longest active streak in the nation. They won their third championship in 2008, but last year bowed out in the Sweet 16.

The Mountain Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral-site contests. The Jayhawks are on ATS skids of 0-7 laying more than 13 points, 4-17 on Thursday, 3-7 after a spread-cover and 4-9 following a SU win. But along with their current 4-1 ATS run (all as a chalk), they are on pointspread rolls 5-2 as a neutral-site chalk, 4-1 in the Tournament, 5-1 as a tourney favorite and 35-15-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.

The over is 4-1-1 in Lehigh’s last six non-conference contests and 3-1-1 in its last five neutral-site games, but the under is on a 5-1 run for the Mountain Hawks following a SU win. Kansas is on a boatload of “under” surges, including 4-1 overall, 6-0 on Thursday, 10-1 in the tourney, 7-1 as a tourney chalk, 5-1 in non-conference play and 12-4 on neutral floors.

ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS and UNDER

(9) Northern Iowa (28-4, 20-11 ATS) vs. (8) UNLV (25-8, 19-12 ATS)

Northern Iowa rode its stifling defense to the regular-season and tournament titles in the Missouri Valley Conference. In their three-game tear through the conference tourney, the Panthers gave up a total of 132 points, holding Drake and Bradley to a suffocating 40 points apiece in the first two games, then dumping Wichita State 67-52 as a three-point chalk in the March 7 final. Northern Iowa averages a modest 63.3 ppg, but gives up just 54.3, the second-stingiest total in the nation.

UNLV won four straight to cap the regular season in the Mountain West, then notched wins over Utah and No. 14 BYU in the conference tourney. However, the Rebels ran out of gas in a 55-45 loss to San Diego State as a four-point home chalk in Saturday’s final. UNLV was solid in road/neutral-site contests this season, going 10-4 SU and ATS while putting up an average of 71.2 ppg and allowing 62.7 ppg.

This is Northern Iowa’s sixth Tournament appearance and second in a row. Last year in the first round, the Panthers gave fifth-seeded Purdue a tough battle before eventually falling 61-56 but cashing as an 8½-point underdog. Their only Tournament victory came in 1990. UNLV missed out on March Mayhem last year after advancing to the Sweet 16 in 2007 and getting to the second round in 2008. The Runnin’ Rebels have made it to the Big Dance 17 times in school history, reaching the Final Four four times.

The Panthers sport nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 36-17 overall, 5-0 in non-conference play, 4-0 at neutral sites, 4-0 as a neutral-site ‘dog, 53-24 as a pup regardless of venue and 14-5 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Rebels have failed to cash in their last four Thursday starts (including last week’s MWC tourney opener), but are otherwise on ATS upticks of 11-5 outside the MWC, 8-3 against winning teams, 5-2 after a SU loss, 7-3 after a pointspread setback and 9-3 after a double-digit home loss.

With their stout defense, it’s no surprise that the Panthers are on “under” tears of 21-6 overall, 18-4 on neutral courts, 37-15-1 getting points, 11-0 as a neutral-site pup and 21-5 following a SU win. Similarly, UNLV is on “under” stretches of 7-3 overall, 5-1 after a non-cover, 4-1 after a SU loss and 4-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600, though the over is 7-1-2 in the Rebels’ last 10 Thursday starts.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTHERN IOWA

WEST REGION

(10) Florida (21-12, 15-13 ATS) vs. (7) BYU (29-5, 18-13 ATS)

Florida lost four of its last five games (2-3 ATS), yet still found a way to sneak into the field of 65 as one of the last “bubble” teams. The Gators opened last week’s SEC tourney in Nashville with a 78-69 victory over Auburn as a 5½-point favorite, then fell to Mississippi State 75-69 getting 1½ points Friday. The Gators played six neutral-site games this year, going 3-3 SU and ATS while playing opponents nearly dead even, averaging 70.5 ppg and allowing 69.5.

BYU went 7-2 in its last nine games (6-3 ATS), with the losses coming to a pair of Big Dance invitees in UNLV and New Mexico. In last week’s Mountain West Conference tournament, the Cougars topped TCU 95-85 but fell short as a whopping 16½-point chalk, then lost to tourney host UNLV 70-66 in Friday’s semis as a one-point pup. BYU ranks in the top 15 nationally in scoring (83.0 ppg, second), field-goal percentage (48.3) and three-point percentage (42.0, second), and is the No. 1 team at the free-throw line (78.6 percent).

Florida won consecutive national championships in 2006 and 2007 – the only two titles in school history – but then failed to get into the Big Dance the last two years. The Gators haven’t lost a first-round contest since 2004. Meanwhile, BYU is looking to snap a string of seven straight first-round losses, its last Tournament victory coming in 1993. The Cougars, who have reached this event 25 times, fell to Texas A&M in the opening round each of the last two years (67-62 in 2008; 79-66 last year), failing to cover in both games.

The Gators have covered in just one of their last five non-conference outings, but they are on ATS upturns of 10-2 in the Big Dance, 5-2 getting points, 4-1 as a tourney pup and 13-4 on Thursday. The Cougars are on ATS runs of 7-2 as a chalk, 4-0 laying less than seven points, 4-1 outside the MWC, 7-2 after a non-cover and 13-5-1 after a SU loss. However, they also shoulder negative ATS streaks of 0-5 on Thursday, 1-5 in the tourney, 2-6 at neutral sites and 2-6 as a neutral-site favorite.

The under for Florida is on surges of 4-1 after a non-cover, 18-6 outside the SEC and 37-16 against teams with a win percentage above .600, but the over has been the play in six of the Gators’ last seven tourney starts. In addition, BYU is on “over” rolls of 7-3 overall, 15-7 on neutral courts, 4-0 in non-conference play, 4-0 in the Big Dance, 17-4 on Thursday, 4-1 as a neutral-site chalk and 22-10-2 following a SU loss.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

(15) North Texas (24-8, 17-6-2 ATS) vs. (2) Kansas State (26-7, 18-9-1 ATS)

North Texas hasn’t lost since Jan. 30, going 11-0 SU (7-2-1 ATS in lined games), including a three-game run through the Sun Belt tournament in its only neutral-site contests this season. The Mean Green edged Troy 66-63 on March 9 as a one-point chalk to clinch their Big Dance berth. North Texas finished the year ranked second nationally with its 17-6-2 ATS record.

Kansas State went on a seven-game tear late in the regular season to soar up the national rankings before going 2-3 SU and ATS in its last five games. However, two of those losses were against Kansas – the tourney’s No. 1 overall seed – including a 72-64 setback as a six-point pup in the Big 12 title game Saturday. The Wildcats, with their highest seed in school history, average 79.6 ppg (14th) and give up 69.4 ppg.

North Texas has qualified for the Big Dance just twice previously, losing to North Carolina by 18 points in 1988 and falling to Memphis by 15 points in 2007. Kansas State ended a 12-year Tournament drought in 2008, when it knocked off USC in the opening round – snapping a four-game Big Dance losing streak that stretched to 1989 – but the Wildcats bowed out to Wisconsin in the second round. K-State failed to qualify for last year’s event.

The Mean Green are on a bundle of spread-covering sprees, including 18-7-2 overall, 33-16-2 getting points, 18-5 at neutral sites, 10-4 as a neutral-site pup, 5-0-2 getting more than 13 points, 10-3-1 in non-conference play and 4-0-1 against the Big 12. Similarly, the Wildcats are on pointspread tears of 17-7-1 overall, 6-0 outside the Big 12, 14-4-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 6-1 after a non-cover, 5-1 after a SU loss and 4-0 as a neutral-site chalk.

North Texas is on “under” runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0 at neutral sites, 8-2 after a SU win and 7-2 as a ‘dog. On the flip side, K-State is on “over” rolls of 5-1 on neutral floors, 5-0 as a neutral-site chalk, 9-1 after a SU loss, 6-1-1 after a non-cover and 6-2 in non-conference action.

ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS STATE

WEST REGION

(12) UTEP (26-6, 14-14 ATS) vs. (5) Butler (28-4, 13-19 ATS)

Texas-El Paso won the Conference USA regular-season crown and rolled through the first two games of the league tourney before blowing a seven-point late second-half lead and tumbling to Houston 81-73 as a seven-point chalk in Saturday’s final. Still, the Miners got an at-large bid, likely due to their 16-game winning streak (10-6 ATS) prior to losing to the Cougars. UTEP averages 75.8 ppg on 47.6 percent shooting, while allowing 64.2 ppg with a defense giving up just 39.0 percent shooting (14th).

Butler has the longest active winning streak in the nation at 20 in a row, though it has gone just 9-11 ATS in that span. In the Horizon League final, played on their home floor, the Bulldogs pounded Wright State 70-45 as a seven-point favorite March 9 to cap an undefeated conference season. Butler went 1-3 SU and ATS in its four neutral-site starts this year, getting outscored by just under four ppg (72.8-69.0). However, in the last five games overall, the Bulldogs are averaging 71.0 ppg and allowing 56.2, with the defense yielding just 35.5 percent shooting.

UTEP has reached the Tournament 16 previous times, but only twice since 1992. The Miners went one-and-done both times, falling to Maryland in 2004 and Utah in 2005. Butler is making its fourth straight Tournament appearance and ninth overall. After winning at least one game in 2001, 2003, 2007 and 2008 (going 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS overall), the Bulldogs got bounced in the opening round last year, in a 75-71 loss to LSU as a 1½-point underdog.

The Miners are on ATS upticks of 6-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 5-1 after a non-cover and 4-0 as a pup, but they’ve also gone 0-5 ATS in their last five after a SU loss and 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference affairs. Butler, meanwhile, is on nothing but negative ATS runs, including 1-7 on neutral floors, 0-4 after a spread-cover, 0-4 on Thursday and 1-5 after a SU win of more than 20 points.

The under is 8-2 in UTEP’s last 10 coming off a SU loss, but the Miners are on “over” surges of 36-15 as a pup, 35-15-1 outside C-USA, 7-1-1 on neutral courts and 5-0 as a neutral-site pup. Butler is a mixed bag with totals, as well, with “under” streaks of 5-0 overall (all as a chalk) and 5-0 on Thursday offset by “over” stretches of 10-2 at neutral sites and 6-1 as a neutral-floor favorite.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

(13) Murray State (30-4, 14-13-2 ATS) vs. (4) Vanderbilt (24-8, 16-14 ATS)

Murray State reached the 30-victory plateau by winning 21 of its last 22 games (11-8-1 ATS in lined contests), going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in its last four starts. In the Ohio Valley Conference tourney, the Racers held all three of their opponents to 51 points apiece, including a 62-51 victory over Morehead State as a four-point chalk in the March 6 title game. Murray State averages 77.5 ppg on superb 50.3 percent shooting (third), and holds foes to 60.5 ppg (21st) on 38.6 percent shooting (12th).

Vanderbilt finished second to Kentucky in the SEC East, then went 1-1 SU and ATS in the conference tourney in their home city of Nashville, dropping Georgia 78-66 as an eight-point chalk and losing to Mississippi State 62-52 as a 1½-point favorite in the semifinals. The Commodores have played six neutral-site contests this season, going 3-3 SU and ATS.

Murray State is back in the Big Dance for the 14th time. The Racers are just 1-13 SU all-time – the lone victory coming against North Carolina State in 1988. In their most recent appearance in 2006, they gave North Carolina a huge scare, eventually falling 69-65 but easily cashing as a 10-point favorite. Vanderbilt, making its 11th Tournament appearance, advanced to the Sweet 16 in 2007 (losing by a single point to Georgetown), dropped an opening-round game to Siena the following year and failed to qualify last season.

The Racers own nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 0-5 against the SEC, 0-5-1 in non-conference play, 1-4 on neutral courts, 2-6 as a neutral-site pup, 3-12 against winning teams, 7-18-1 after a spread-cover and 2-5 after a SU win. The Commodores have gone 3-12 ATS in their last 15 Thursday outings and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a chalk, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a non-cover and 5-2 ATS in their last seven tourney contests.

The over has been the play in Murray State’s last four starts as a dog, but the Racers are otherwise on “under” tears of 4-1-1 overall, 4-0-1 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover, 4-0 at neutral sites and 10-4-1 in Thursday starts. The under has also hit in four of Vandy’s last five tourney tilts, but the Commodores are on “over” runs of 12-4 overall, 6-0 on Thursday, 11-1 after a SU loss, 15-3 after a non-cover and 6-1 from the favorite’s role.

ATS ADVANTAGE: VANDERBILT

EAST REGION

(9) Wake Forest (19-10, 15-11 ATS) vs. (8) Texas (24-9, 10-19 ATS)

Wake Forest fell apart down the stretch, losing five of its last six games (3-3 ATS), but still snuck into the field of 65. Last Thursday, the Demon Deacons opened the ACC tourney in embarrassing fashion, getting blown out by Miami 83-62 as a 3½-point favorite. That was the lone neutral-site game this season for Wake, which has averaged 69 ppg away from home this year and given up a tick more at 70.5 ppg.

Texas has gone from the penthouse to the outhouse this year, starting out 17-0 to reach No. 1 in the country, then going 7-9 SU and an even worse 3-13 ATS the rest of the way to plummet to a No. 8 seed. The Longhorns got pounded by Baylor 86-67 getting one point in the second round of the Big 12 tourney last Thursday. Negatives aside, Rick Barnes’ troops are still one of the top scoring units, averaging 81.2 ppg (seventh) while allowing 69.7, and they are second nationally in rebounding (39.5 per game).

Wake Forest ended a four-year Tournament drought last year, but the journey was brief as it got destroyed by 13th-seeded Cleveland State 84-69 as a 7½-point favorite. This is the Demon Deacons’ 22nd trip to this event in school history. It’s the Longhorns’ 12th consecutive Tournament appearance and 16th in the last 17 years. During this stretch, Texas 12-3 SU in opening round games, including a 76-62 rout of Minnesota as a 4 ½-point favorite last March before losing to Duke.

These two teams met in the 1996 Big Dance, with Wake squeaking out a 65-62 second-round victory as an eight-point ‘dog.

Despite their current slide, the Demon Deacons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games and are on additional ATS surges of 6-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 10-1 getting less than seven points and 4-1 as a pup of any price. However, they also carry three lengthy and pertinent ATS skids: 1-10 in the tourney, 6-24 on neutral courts and 4-17 on Thursday.

The Longhorns have also been an up-and-down-bet, with positive ATS runs of 9-4 outside the Big 12, 6-2 against the ACC, 5-2 at neutral sites and 4-1 as a neutral-site chalk, combined with pointspread plunges of 7-19 overall (3-17 last 20), 3-14 against winning teams, 3-11 giving points, 5-15-1 after an ATS loss and 2-7 laying less than seven in the Big Dance.

Wake Forest is on “under” stretches of 4-1 overall, 6-0 after a SU loss, 4-0 after a non-cover, 4-1 as a pup and 8-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, though the Deacons also sport “over” rolls of 7-3 in non-conference play, 5-1 in the tourney and 4-0 against the Big 12. Texas is on a plethora of “over” tears, including 4-0 overall, 5-0 in the tourney, 10-4 laying points, 4-1 as a tourney chalk, 7-0 on neutral floors, 5-0 as a neutral-site chalk and 7-1 against the ACC.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

(16) East Tennessee St. (20-14, 2-1 ATS) vs. (1) Kentucky (32-2, 17-15 ATS)

East Tennessee State took fifth in the Atlantic Sun Conference, despite winning its last three regular-season games. But the Buccaneers then pirated the conference tourney with three consecutive victories in their only lined games of the year, beating Mercer on its home court 72-66 in the final as a two-point favorite.

Kentucky won its first 19 games of the season (9-8 ATS), stubbed its toe at South Carolina, then won 13 of its last 14 games, with the lone setback in that stretch coming at Tennessee. The Wildcats got through the three-game SEC tourney, edging Alabama in the opener, pounding the Vols by 29 in a payback game, then squeaking past Mississippi State 75-74 in overtime as a seven-point chalk. Kentucky outscores foes by an average of 14 ppg (79.2-65.3) and has the nation’s sixth-best field-goal defense (38.1 percent).

East Tennessee is making its ninth Tournament appearance and second in a row, but it hasn’t won a game since 1992. Last year, hoever, the Buccaneers gave No. 1 seed Pitt a tough time before succumbing 72-62, easily covering the 21-point number.

Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament resume is as impressive as any in the country, as it has reached this event 51 times, advancing to 13 Final Fours and winning seven national championships. The Wildcats are 100-45 SU in the Tournament, but their string of 18 consecutive appearances ended last year. In their most recent contest in this event in 2008, they suffered a 74-66 first-round loss to Marquette – the first time since 1987 that the ‘Cats went one-and-done.

The Bucs have played just 13 lined contests over the past five seasons, though they have done well in Vegas, riding ATS streaks of 5-1 overall, 5-1 against winning teams, 5-1 after a SU win, 8-2 getting points, 4-1 at neutral-sites, 8-2 as a neutral-floor pup and 11-4 in non-conference play. The Wildcats are on ATS skids of 1-4 against winning teams and 1-4 after a SU win, but they are on positive ATS runs of 39-19 following a non-cover, 4-1 on Thursday and 5-2 outside the SEC.

The over is on runs for East Tennessee State of 7-3 overall, 4-1 on neutral courts and 6-2 after a SU win, and Kentucky is on “over” stretches of 5-1 in non-conference action, 7-2 laying 13 or more points, 5-0 as a tourney chalk of that same price and 8-2 after a non-cover. That said, the ‘Cats are on “under” rolls of 4-1 as a tourney chalk of any price, 7-2 at neutral sites and 5-2 after a SU win.

ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY

EAST REGION

(11) Washington (24-9, 14-18 ATS) vs. (6) Marquette (22-11, 16-10-1 ATS)

Washington ended up getting one of the last slots in the Big Dance by winning its last seven games (6-1 ATS), including a three-game run through the Pac-10 tournament to grab the automatic bid. In Saturday’s final against conference regular-season champ California, Washington won 79-75 as a two-point favorite. Over the last five games, the Huskies have averaged 77.0 ppg on 48.6 percent shooting and allowed 66.6 ppg on 39.4 percent shooting.

Marquette was one of the hotter teams in the country late in the season, winning nine of its last 11 regular-season games in the rugged Big East, including three overtime victories. The Golden Eagles then nabbed two wins in the conference tourney before getting trounced by Georgetown 80-57 as a 3½-point pup in Friday’s semifinals. Marquette has gone 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) on neutral courts this year, outscoring opponents by an average of just a point per game (66.7-65.7).

Washington has made it to the Tournament 14 previous times, including last year as a No. 5 seed, when it beat 12th-seeded Mississippi State 71-58 (as a 6½-point favorite), then fell to No. 4 seed Purdue 76-74 (as a one-point chalk) in the second round. The Huskies have won three straight first-round contests, cashing in the last two.

Marquette is making its fifth straight trip to the Big Dance and the 28th in all. The Golden Eagles have scored first-round victories each of the last two years – including a 58-57 win over Utah State in 2009 (falling short as a six-point chalk – but got eliminated in the second round both times.

Along with their current 6-1 ATS run, the Huskies are on spread-covering upturns of 5-1 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 in the Tournament, but they also shoulder ATS slides of 3-9 outside the Pac-10, 1-5 getting points, 1-5 on Thursday and 2-6 as a neutral-site ‘dog.

The Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last seven tourney starts and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference contests, but they remain on positive ATS rolls of 6-1 on Thursday, 6-1 after a non-cover, 5-1 after a SU loss, 11-4-1 against winning teams and 9-3 versus teams with a win percentage above .600.

The under is 17-8 in Washington’s last 25 non-conference games, but the Huskies are on “over” surges of 5-1 as a neutral-site pup, 15-4 on Thursday, 17-7 after a spread-cover and 24-11 coming off a SU win. The under is 6-0 in Marquette’s last six as a chalk and 4-0 in its last four as a neutral-site favorite, but the Golden Eagles are also on “over” sprees of 10-2 in the Big Dance, 5-1 as a tourney chalk and 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS loss.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MARQUETTE and OVER

(14) Montana (22-9, 17-11 ATS) vs. (3) New Mexico (29-4, 18-12-2 ATS)

Montana enters the Big Dance on a 9-2 SU run (8-2 ATS in lined games), sweeping through three games in the Big Sky tourney (2-0 ATS), including a 66-65 come-from-behind upset of top-seeded host Weber State as a 3½-point pup in the March 10 final. In that contest, the Grizzlies rallied from a 20-point halftime deficit. Montana, averaging 70.0 ppg and allowing 61.2, is among the nation’s top shooting teams, hitting 48.6 percent from the floor (12th), including a solid 40.4 percent from three-point range (eighth).

New Mexico went through the final two months of the regular season without losing, going 14-0 SU (8-5-1 ATS) to win the Mountain West regular-season crown. The Lobos then routed Air Force in the conference tournament quarterfinals, but were upset by San Diego State 72-69 Friday as a 2½-point chalk in the semis. Steve Alford’s squad was consistent regardless of venue this year, outscoring foes 76.6-67.1 overall, 75.6-69.8 on the highway and 77.8-70.2 at neutral sites.

Montana is back in the Big Dance for the eighth time, the most recent being in 2006, when it upset Nevada in the opening round (87-79 as a five-point underdog). The Grizzlies’ only other Tournament victory came in 1975. This is New Mexico’s 12th Tournament appearance and first since 2005, when it lost in the first round to Villanova. The Lobos’ last Big Dance victory came in 1999.

The Grizzlies are on ATS rolls of 8-2 overall, 6-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 5-1 outside the Big Sky, 5-1 catching points, 4-1 against the Mountain West and 6-2 after a SU win. The lone negative: a 3-8 ATS mark as a pup of seven to 12½ points.

The Lobos are in ATS funks of 1-5 overall (0-5 as a favorite), 2-8 at neutral courts and 1-7 as a neutral-floor favorite, but they’ve cashed in their last four against Big Sky foes and are on additional positive ATS stretches of 7-1 after a non-cover and 35-17-2 in non-conference play.

Montana is on “under” runs of 6-0 as a pup, 7-1 in non-conference action and 7-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, but the over is 7-2 in the Grizzlies’ last nine overall, 6-1 in their last seven after a spread-cover and 6-2 in their last eight following a SU win. New Mexico is on “over” sprees of 5-0 overall, 4-0 after a non-cover, 4-0 as a chalk, 4-1 against the Big Sky and 5-2 on Thursday, though the under is 9-3 in the Lobos’ last dozen games following a SU loss.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW MEXICO

SOUTH REGION

(10) St. Mary’s (26-5, 19-10 ATS) vs. (7) Richmond (26-8, 18-10-2 ATS)

St. Mary’s upset Gonzaga 81-62 as a 4½-point underdog in the West Coast Conference championship game in Las Vegas back on March 8 to capture the conference’s automatic bid. The victory over Gonzaga gives the Gaels a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) coming into this contest, and going back to Christmas Day they’re 16-3 SU (with two of the three defeats coming to Gonzaga).

The Spiders made it all the way to the Atlantic 10 tournament championship game Sunday, but came up short against Temple, losing 56-52 and pushing as a four-point underdog. Richmond is 12-2 SU and 10-2-2 ATS in its last 14 games, with both SU defeats coming by four points each. In fact, Richmond’s last seven games have been nail-biters, with victory margins of 4, 4, 2, 4, 5, 5, 4 and 4 points (and three of the games went to overtime).

This is the second time in three years and the sixth time in all that St. Mary’s has gone dancing, but the Gaels haven’t won a first-round contest since 1959 – their very first tourney appearance. In 2008, they got spanked by Miami, Fla., falling 78-64 as a 1½-point favorite.

In gaining an at-large berth, Richmond returns to the Field of 65 for the first time since 2004 (and the eighth time in school history). The Spiders last won a tourney game in 1998 (62-61 over South Carolina as a 7½-point underdog).

Both teams have excelled in neutral-site games this year, with St. Mary’s going 4-1 SU and ATS and Richmond posting a 5-1 mark (4-1-1 ATS).

The Gaels are on pointspread hot streaks of 19-6-1 in non-conference games, 15-7 after a victory and 12-4 after a spread-cover, but they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven against winning teams and 1-8 ATS in their last nine as a neutral-site underdog. Richmond has failed to cover in four of its last five as a favorite and is 1-3-1 ATS in its last four on five on Thursday, but otherwise the Spiders are on spread-covering runs of 10-2-2 overall, 7-3 in non-league action, 6-2-1 as a favorite, 4-0-1 as a chalk of less than seven points and 23-7-2 after a SU loss.

St. Mary’s has stayed under the total in eight of 10 overall, seven of eight after a SU win, four straight on Thursday, five of seven at neutral sites and four straight as an underdog at neutral venues. On the flip side, the over is 9-3-1 in the Gaels’ last 13 as a ‘dog of less than seven points and 20-7 in their last 27 non-conference tilts. Also, Richmond is on “over” runs of 6-2 overall, 4-1 as a favorite and 8-3 when laying less than seven points.

ATS ADVANTAGE: RICHMOND

(15) Robert Morris (23-11, 3-4 ATS) vs. (2) Villanova (24-7, 18-12 ATS)

Robert Morris swept three games in the Northeast Conference tournament last weekend, finishing it with a 52-50 upset victory over Quinnipiac as a 4 ½-point underdog eight days ago. The Colonials have won 19 of their last 23 games, though one of the defeats came against Pittsburgh (77-53 on the road), which like Villanova plays in the Big East.

The Wildcats jumped out to a 22-2 start to the season and looked like a lock for a No. 1 seed. However, they fell apart down the stretch, losing five of their final seven games, including an 80-76 upset loss to Minnesota as a five-point underdog in the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament a week ago. After averaging 85.3 ppg during its 22-2 start, Villanova dropped to 72.9 ppg during its season-ending 2-5 slump.

Robert Morris snapped a 17-year Tournament drought last year, but it didn’t hang around long, losing to Michigan State 77-62 and just missing as a 14½-point underdog. The Colonials are 1-6 all-time in six tourney appearances.

Villanova is going dancing for the fifth straight season and the 31st overall. Last year, the Wildcats advanced to the Final Four for the first time since winning their only national championship in 1985, but they were no match for eventual champion North Carolina, losing 83-69 in the semifinals.

The Colonials, who rarely play lined contests, are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games that have featured a betting line. Meanwhile, not only did Villanova struggle on the scoreboard down the stretch, but it failed to cash in eight of its final 11 games after starting out 15-4 ATS. The Wildcats are also in ATS slumps of 2-10 on Thursday, 2-6 as a favorite and 2-6 as a favorite in the Tournament. However, they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five at neutral sites (all as a chalk) and 5-1 ATS in their last six when laying 13 points or more regardless of venue.

Villanova is on “over” runs of 17-8 overall, 6-0 in non-conference play, 14-6 as a favorite, 6-2 when laying 13 points or more and 6-2 on Thursday. Also, the Colonials topped the posted price in two of their three conference tournament games, their only contests this year that featured a total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: VILLANOVA and OVER

SOUTH REGION

(14) Sam Houston State (25-7, 3-2 ATS) vs. (3) Baylor (25-7, 16-9 ATS)

Sam Houston State swept three games in last week’s Southland Conference tournament to claim just its second Tournament bid in school history. After barely getting past Nicholls State (62-57) and Southeastern Louisiana (88-85) in the first two rounds, the Bearkats had no problems in the championship game, pounding Stephen F. Austin 64-48 as a 3½-point chalk. Going back to Jan. 9, Sam Houston State is 17-2 SU, and it is a perfect 5-0 in neutral-site games (3-2 ATS).

The Bears’ five-game SU and four-game ATS winning streaks ended in the Big 12 tournament semifinals with an 82-75 loss to Kansas State as a two-point underdog. Still, they’ve won eight of their last 12 overall. Also, Baylor is 4-2 SU and ATS in neutral-site games this year, averaging 74.7 ppg on 48 percent shooting while holding opponents to 66.8 ppg (38.7 percent).

Sam Houston State’s only previous Big Dance appearance came in 2003, and it wasn’t a memorable one as the Bearkats get thumped by Florida, 85-55 as a 20½-point favorite. Meanwhile, Baylor is making just its third trip to the Tournament since 1950, which is also the last time the Bears won a game. In 1988, they suffered a 15-point opening-round loss to Memphis, then waited 20 years before they got another shot in 2008, when they stumbled to Purdue 90-79.

The Bearkats have cashed in five of their last seven lined neutral-site games and they’re 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight out of conference. Baylor is on ATS upticks of 4-1 overall, 6-0 in non-league action, 19-7 at neutral sites, 4-0 as a favorite and 8-3 as a neutral-site chalk.

The over is on runs of 6-2 for Sam Houston as an underdog, 5-2 for Sam Houston in non-conference action, 4-0 for the Bears overall and 4-0 for the Bears as a favorite of 7 to 12½ points.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

(11) Old Dominion (26-8, 13-17 ATS) vs. (6) Notre Dame (23-11, 17-10-1 ATS)

Old Dominion brings a five-game winning streak into this contest, with three of those coming in the Colonial Athletic Association tournament. The Monarchs took both the regular-season and conference tournament titles, the latter following a 60-53 victory over William & Mary 10 days ago (failing to cash as a nine-point favorite). ODU has won 20 of its last 24 games, but prior to winning the CAA Tournament in Richmond, Va., the Monarchs had lost their first two neutral-site games (SU and ATS) to Missouri and Mississippi State

Notre Dame caught fire down the stretch to gain an at-large berth out of the Big East. The Irish went on a 3-7 slump from mid-January to mid-February, then turned it on and won six in a row (SU and ATS) before coming up just short to West Virginia in the Big East semifinals, losing 53-51, but again cashing as a five-point underdog for its eighth straight spread-cover. Including the Big East tourney, coach Mike Bray’s squad is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS at neutral venues.

Old Dominion returns to this event for the first time since 2007, when it lost to fifth-seeded Butler 57-46 as a two-point underdog in the opening round. The Monarchs are 2-9 all-time in the tourney, their last victory coming in 1995.

This marks the 30th time in school history that Notre Dame has reached the Tournament, most recently making it in 2008 when it pounded George Mason (68-50 as a 6½-point favorite) in the first round before getting ousted by Washington State. The Irish are 4-1 SU in their last five opening-round games.

The Monarchs, who failed to get the cash in the CAA title game against William & Mary, are 4-1 ATS in their last five after a non-cover and 5-2 ATS in their last seven versus the Big East. From there, though, they’re in ATS ruts of 7-18 at neutral sites, 2-7 in non-conference action, 1-4 on Thursday, 3-9 against winning teams 1-6 as an underdog, 0-8 as a neutral-site pup and 0-6 when catching less than seven points at neutral venues.

In addition to their 8-0 ATS run to end the regular season, the Irish are on ATS surges of 4-0 at neutral sites, 4-0 on Thursday, 15-5-1 against winning teams and 3-1-1 as a favorite of less than seven points.

Old Dominion has topped the total in seven of eight overall and six of seven after a victory, while the over is 4-0 in Notre Dame’s last four non-Big East tussles and 7-3 in its last 10 on Thursday.

However, the Monarchs are also on “under” runs of 8-2 in non-conference play, 5-2 at neutral sites, 8-3 as an underdog, 4-1 as a neutral-site ‘dog, 7-3 when catching less than seven points anywhere and 5-2 on Thursday. Also, the Irish are on “under” runs of 7-0 overall, 5-0-1 in the Tournament (5-0 as a Tournament favorite of less than seven points), 14-3 at neutral sites, 10-1 as a neutral-site chalk and 21-5 after a spread-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NOTRE DAME and UNDER