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NCAAB News and Notes Thursday 3/19

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blade

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Thursday's Early Tips
By Brian Edwards

The 2009 NCAA Tournament will tip at 12:20 p.m. Eastern Thursday afternoon when LSU and Butler square off in Greensboro, N.C., for the event’s lid-lifter. Within 10 minutes, two more games will get started and a fourth contest out in the West region will go at 2:30 p.m.

From there, it’s nothing but bets and ballgames from lunch until midnight for four straight days. Does it get any better? Let’s look at the four early games for the tournament’s first day.

**Butler vs. LSU**

--This is a showdown between eight (LSU) and nine (Butler) seeds in the South region. Unless Radford becomes the first No. 16 seed to advance in tournament history, the winner will take on top-seeded North Carolina on Saturday.

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened LSU (26-7 straight up, 13-12 against the spread) as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 126. As of early Tuesday morning, most books had the Tigers at 2 ½ with the total adjusted to 127 ½.

--LSU has lost three of its last four games on the heels of a 10-game winning streak. The Tigers dropped a 67-57 decision to Mississippi St. in the semifinals of the SEC Tournament. They had beaten Kentucky by a 67-58 count in the quarterfinals.

--Butler (26-5 SU, 16-12-1 ATS) appeared to be on its way to a better seed until it lost three of its last seven games, including a 54-51 loss to Cleveland St. in the finals of the Horizon League Tournament.

--Brad Stevens’ team has thrived in underdog roles this season. In fact, the Bulldogs are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS when listed as underdogs.

--Butler won three of its five games against teams in the field. The Bulldogs won two of three against Cleveland St. and also beat Xavier. They lost 54-51 at Ohio St. and also dropped the aforementioned game against the Vikings.

--LSU has a 3-4 record against teams in the field, beating Mississippi St. twice and also knocking off Tennessee. The four losses came to Mississippi St., Xavier, Texas A&M and Utah.

--Trent Johnson’s team owns a 7-6 spread record as a single-digit favorite this year.

--LSU guard Marcus Thornton is the SEC’s second-leading scorer, averaging 20.7 points per game. Tasmin Mitchell, who started on LSU’s 2006 team that went to the Final Four, averages 16.3 points and 7.2 rebounds per game.

--Butler lost four starters from last season’s 30-win team, but the East-of-the-Mississippi-River version of Gonzaga is back in the Big Dance yet again. Sophomore Matt Howard leads the team in scoring (14.6 PPG) and rebounding (6.7 RPG), while freshman Gordon Hayward is averaging 13.2 points and 6.5 rebounds per game.

**Cal-St. Northridge vs. Memphis**

--This is a 2/15 matchup that’ll be played at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO. LVSC opened second-seeded Memphis (31-3 SU, 22-11 ATS) as a 19-point favorite with a total of 134. As of early Tuesday morning, most spots had the Tigers at 19 ½.

--Cal-State Northridge (17-13 SU, 16-10 ATS) has only played one team in the field, losing 85-67 at UCLA. The Matadors covered the spread as 21 ½-point underdogs.

--Cal-State Northridge won the Big West Tournament by beating Pacific 71-66 in overtime as a 1 ½-point underdog. Rodrigue Mels scored a team-high 23 points to pace the winners. Mels is averaging 18.3 PPG in the Matadors’ last six games.

--Cal-St. Northridge owns a 2-2 spread record in four games as a double-digit underdog.

--The Matadors have been without two of their best players recently. Senior guard Deon Tresvant, who was averaging 13.3 PPG, was suspended from the team in early January after being arrested with head coach Bobby Braswell’s son on burglary charges. Josh Jenkins, the team’s senior point guard who was averaging 10.2 PPG and leading the Big West in assists with 6.2 per game, was injured in a one-car accident in February.

--Memphis hasn’t tasted defeat since losing at home to Syracuse back on Dec. 20. Since then, the Tigers have won 25 consecutive games, compiling an 18-6 spread record in the 24 lined affairs. They beat Tulsa 64-39 as 14 ½-point home favorites in the finals of the C-USA Tournament.

--John Calipari’s team is led by freshman guard Tyreke Evans, who averages 16.6 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game. Evans did it all against the Golden Hurricane, finishing with 18 points, six rebounds, five assists, three blocked shots and two steals.

--Memphis owns an 18-6 spread record in 24 games as a double-digit favorite. The Tigers played only four games against teams in the field, going 2-2 both SU and ATS. They lost to the ‘Cuse at home and to Xavier on a neutral court. On the other hand, they won at Tennessee in a nail-biter and trounced Gonzaga 68-50 in Spokane.

--The ‘under’ has been a monster money maker for Memphis, cashing at a 22-11 overall clip. The ‘under’ has cashed in eight straight games for the Tigers and is on an 11-1 run in their last 12 outings.

--The ‘over’ is 14-11 overall for the Matadors.

**Texas A&M vs. Brigham Young**

--This is an 8/9 game at the Wachovia Center in Philadelphia that is a rematch of last year’s first-round encounter. The Aggies won last season’s meeting 67-62 as one-point favorites.

--LVSC opened BYU (25-7 SU, 15-14 ATS) as a 1 ½-point favorite with a total of 140. As of early Tuesday morning, most books had the Cougars as two-point ‘chalk’ with the total slipping a touch to 139 ½.

--Texas A&M (23-9 SU, 15-9 ATS) won each of its last six regular-season games before allowing a 21-point second-half lead to get away in an 88-83 loss to Texas Tech in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament. Nevertheless, the Aggies are still in the midst of a 10-3 ATS surge in their last 13 games.

--Mark Turgeon’s team is making its fourth straight appearance in the NCAA Tournament (twice on Billy Gillispie’s watch and twice since Turgeon came to College Station from Wichita St.). The Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their seven tournament games since 2006. They were eliminated by UCLA last season in a 51-49 loss as 9 ½-point underdogs.

--BYU has one of the country’s most underrated players in Lee Cummard, who averages 16.8 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. The Cougars have two other prolific scorers in Jonathan Tavernari (16.2 PPG) and Jimmer Fredette (15.9 PPG).

--Jeff Reynolds’s squad lost a 64-62 decision to San Diego St. in the MWC Tourney semifinals as a 2 ½-point favorite. Fredette had a team-high 17 points in the losing effort.

--BYU had covered the number in nine straight games before failing to cover in its regular-season finale and both games it played in the MWC Tourney.

--BYU is 5-6 ATS as a single-digit favorite this season. Meanwhile, Texas A&M has cashed tickets at a 9-3 ATS clip in 12 underdog spots.

--The ‘over’ is 15-13 overall for BYU, but the ‘under’ is on a 5-1 run for the Cougars.

--The ‘over’ has cashed in four straight and six of the last seven for Texas A&M. For the season, however, totals were a wash (12-12) for the Aggies.

**Northern Iowa vs. Purdue**

--This is a 5/12 matchup that’ll tip at 2:30 p.m. Eastern at the Rose Garden in Portland. The winner will move on to face the Washington-Mississippi St. winner.

--LVSC opened Purdue (25-9 SU, 14-16 ATS) as a nine-point favorite with a total of 125. As of early Tuesday morning, most spots had the Boilermakers as 8 ½-point favorites with a total of 124.

--No. Iowa (23-10 SU, 16-13 ATS) won the Missouri Valley Tournament by prevailing 60-57 over Illinois St. in the finals. The Panthers won outright as three-point underdogs.

--No. Iowa has taken the cash in eight consecutive games as an underdog. For the season, the Panthers are 9-4 ATS in 13 spots as ‘dogs.

--Matt Painter’s team won the Big Ten Tournament by rallying from a 30-25 halftime deficit to capture a 65-61 triumph. Bettors backing Purdue appeared to be on the verge of victory when Chris Kramer drained a pair of free throws with 4.8 seconds left to briefly get ahead of the number from a six-point ‘chalk’ situation. However, Jon Diebler buried a seemingly meaningless 3-pointer at the buzzer that allowed Ohio St. backers to cash tickets. E’Twaun Moore was the catalyst for the Boilers, knocking down five triples en route to a team-high 17 points.

--Purdue has limped to a 6-10 spread record in 16 games as a single-digit ‘chalk.’

--These teams had a pair of common foes in Iowa and Indiana St. Purdue swept a pair of games from the Hawkeyes, who trounced No. Iowa by a 65-46 count. The Boilers beat Indiana St. by 14, while the Panthers won two of three games against the Sycamores.

--No. Iowa enjoyed its one shining moment as a No. 14 seed in 1990 when it stunned Missouri 74-71 on a game-winning 3-pointer by Maurice Newby. The win over Norm Stewart's Tigers is the Panthers' only NCAA Tournament win in school history.

--Purdue is in its third straight NCAA Tournament in the fourth year of Painter’s tenure. The Boilers gave eventual national champ Florida fits in a narrow second-round loss in New Orleans two seasons ago. They actually led the Gators by as much as seven points midway through the second half. In the 2008 tourney, Purdue beat up on Baylor before bowing out in a loss to Xavier.

--Ben Jacobson’s squad has played just two games against teams in the Big Dance. The Panthers lost 81-75 at Siena and were destroyed 73-43 by Marquette on a neutral floor.

--No. Iowa is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2006 when it lost a 54-49 decision to Georgetown as a 3 1/2-point underdog in the first round.

--The ‘over’ is 18-11 overall for No. Iowa, 8-2 in its last 10 games.

--The ‘over’ is on a 3-0 run for Purdue and is 15-15 overall for the year.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Illinois guard Chester Frazier (hand) is “doubtful” for his team’s first-round game against Western Kentucky. Frazier averages 5.7 points, 5.3 assists and 4.8 rebounds per game for the Illini.

--Akron is in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1986 when the Zips were coached by current West Virginia coach Bob Huggins.

--Only four No. 15 seeds have knocked off No. 2 seeds in NCAA Tournament history. That’s bad news for Cal-State Northridge, Morgan St., Robert Morris and Binghamton. However, Todd Bozeman’s Bears can take solace in the fact that the last two No. 15 seeds came out of the MEAC. Hampton beat Iowa St. in 2001, while Coppin St. took out a South Carolina team led by B.J. McKie back in 1997. The first No. 15 seed to advance was Dick Tarrant’s Richmond Spiders, who beat a Syracuse team led by Lawrence Moten in the ’91 Tourney.

--Kansas is a No. 3 seed this year just like it was in 2005 when Bucknell upset Bill Self’s first team at KU.

Editor's note: Brian Edwards has picks galore available for both the NIT and NCAA Tournaments. In addition, you can purchase his entire bracket for your office pool now!

vegasinsider.com

Posted : March 17, 2009 5:36 pm

blade

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Posts: 318493

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Topic starter

Thursday Prime Time Tips
By Judd Hall

The first day of the 2009 NCAA Tournament will already have eight games in the books when we reach the early primetime matchups on Thursday. And the whirlwind will continue for us as four tests get underway within a matter of 15 minutes.

Let’s take a look at this third session of Day 1.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Clemson Tigers – 7:10 p.m. EDT

--The opening contest of the session showcases the No. 11 seed Wolverines and sixth seed Tigers of the South Region. The winner gets to face either Oklahoma or Morgan State on Saturday to make the Sweet 16.

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Clemson (23-8 straight up, 12-13-1 against the spread) as a six-point “chalk” with a total of 137. The line has since moved with the Tigers as 5 ½-point faves.

--You want to come into the big dance playing your best. That hasn’t happened for the Tigers as they’re 1-4 SU and ATS in their final five games. Oliver Purnell’s squad fell to the cellar dwelling Yellow Jackets as a nine-point favorite in the ACC tourney on March 12, 86-81.

--Michigan (20-13 SU, 15-11-1 ATS) had quality wins over the Bruins and Blue Devils at the start of the season, but needed close out the campaign with a flourish in order to make the field of 65. The Wolverines closed out the year 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS. They bowed out of the Big Ten Tournament as a two-point underdog to the Fighting Illini on March 13, 60-50.

--The Wolverines haven’t been a team you want to back when listed as pups this year with a 3-9 SU and 6-6-1 ATS mark. Although they have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five road games as ‘dogs. The ‘under’ is 9-3 in those tilts.

--Clemson is 11-6 SU and 8-9-1 ATS when made a single-digit favorite this season. The ‘under’ has gone 10-7 in those matches as well.

--John Beilein’s squad must own the boards in this game to be successful, which could be a tall order. That’s because they grab 30.9 offensive rebounds per game, but give up 34 boards every night. So keep a close eye on Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims since they both average 6.9 RPG.

--The Tigers will be aiming to get their perimeter shots to drop from K.C. Rivers and Terrence Oglesby. That duo hit just 8-for-25 from beyond the arch against Georgia Tech. Not good when you consider that Clemson led the ACC with a 37.9 connection rate from three-point land.

Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Texas Longhorns – 7:10 p.m. EDT

--This 7 vs. 10 showdown in the East bracket will be played at the Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina. The victor of this contest gets to take on either Duke or Binghamton in the second round.

--LVSC posted Texas (20-10 SU, 11-18-1 ATS) as a 5 ½-point favorite with a total of 126. Bettors have been coming in heavy on the Golden Gophers since the line moved down to four on Tuesday afternoon.

--Minnesota (22-10 SU, 12-14-1 ATS) were one of those clubs that found itself on the bubble as Selection Sunday loomed. Tubby Smith’s program had a great win over Louisville, but tripped down the stretch with a 3-5 SU and ATS record. But that win over the Cards and playing in a tough conference proved just enough to get tickets to the dance.

--The Golden Gophers can honestly call themselves a tournament tested squad with 15 matches against NCAA tourney teams. They went 7-8 SU and 6-8 ATS in those contests. The ‘under’ is 9-5 in those games as well.

--Tubby Smith can rest assured that he’ll get a solid effort out of Lawrence Westbrook and Damian Johnson, who average 12.4 and 9.7 points per game respectively. But Smith could get a boost out Devron Bostick in this contest. The junior guard from Racine, WI scores just 4.1 PPG this year but scored 11 and 12 points in his last two appearances.

--The Longhorns have been an up and down squad this season. They closed out the year at 3-3 SU and 1-4-1 ATS. Texas fell to the Bears in the Big XII tournament as a 4 ½-point “chalk” on March 13, 76-70, to snap a 24-game win streak.

--Texas’ biggest issue has been draining buckets as they ranked eighth in its league with 72.3 PPG this year. A lot of that is due to the offense being funneled through A.J. Abrams. Unfortunately, Abrams hadn’t performed lately. Outside of the 20 points he scored against Baylor, the senior guard had averaged just 9.8 PPG in his last five starts.

--The Orange Bloods have seen Dexter Pittman come up huge with 15.6 PPG from Feb. 28 to March 12. Pittman scored just seven points in the loss to the Bears last Friday.

--Minnesota is just 2-12 ATS in its past 14 meetings with Big XII squads.

American Eagles vs. Villanova Wildcats – 7:20 p.m. EDT

--This 3/14 matchup will tip-off at the Wachovia Center in Philadelphia. Whoever wins this battle gets to face either UCLA or Virginia Commonwealth on Saturday.

--LVSC has opened up with Villanova (25-6 SU, 16-13 ATS) as a 19-point “chalk” with a total of 132. The public has actually pushed this line down to make the Wildcats 17-point faves. Even the total got knocked down a few pegs to 130.

--American (24-7 SU, 1-0 ATS) is making its second straight trip to the NCAA Tournament by beating 73-57 on March 13. The Eagles easily covered as five-point favorites. Meanwhile the combined 130 points went ‘over’ the closing total of 117.

--The Wildcats looked like they could make a run at a top seed in the big dance with wins over Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Marquette. They even finished 6-2 SU, but didn’t do bettors any favors with a 3-5 ATS mark. But ‘Nova had to settle with a No. 3 seed after falling to the Cardinals as a 4 ½-point underdog on March 13, 69-55.

--The Eagles will be looking to their talented senior trio Garrison Carr (17.8 PPG), Brian Gilmore (12.4 PPG) and Derrick Mercer (11.5 PPG) to keep the score close against Villanova.

--American was out of sorts during its first round game last year against the Volunteers. Yet they still wound up covering as a 19-point pup, 72-57.

--‘Nova is a perfect 10-0 SU when they’ve been tabbed as a double-digit favorite. As far as the gambling public is concerned, they’re 5-5 ATS.

Akron Zips at Gonzaga Bulldogs – 7:25 p.m. EDT

--This No. 4 vs. No. 13 tilt from the South Region will be taking place at the Rose Garden in Portland. The winner of this matchup will get to square off with Illinois or Western Kentucky.

--LVSC first installed the Bulldogs as 14-point favorites with a total of 133. While the total has stayed the same, the public has pushed Gonzaga (26-5 SU, 15-13 ATS) down to a 12-point fave.

--Akron (23-12 SU, 16-13-1 ATS) is making its first trip to the NCAA Tournament in 23 years thanks to beating the Bulls as a 2 ½-point “chalk” in the MAC Championship Game, 65-53. Brett McKnight led the Zips with 16 points and Chris McKnight poured in 12 points in a winning effort.

--The Bulldogs could not have picked a better time to play their best basketball. Ever since getting blown out by Memphis on Feb. 7, the Zags have won nine straight contests, covering in five of them. What was Gonzaga’s average margin of victory in that stretch? 23 points. And they won the West Coast Conference Tournament by at least 36 points.

--Gonzaga has been as automatic a play as there has been this year as a double-digit favorite, going 18-1 SU and 8-6 ATS.

--The Zips have only been double-digit ‘dogs once this year. They lost 86-67 to Pittsburgh on Nov. 21, but they did cover the 20-point spread.

--If you’ve been looking for an upset play in the first round, a 13 vs. 4 is a good one to back. Siena and San Diego both won last season as a 13th seed. On the betting front, teams listed as No. 13 have gone 11-14 ATS.

vegasinsider.com

Posted : March 17, 2009 5:37 pm

blade

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Posts: 318493

Illustrious Member

Topic starter

BUTLER vs. LSU
Butler is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Butler is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games
LSU is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
LSU is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games

CS NORTHRIDGE vs. MEMPHIS
CS Northridge is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

TEXAS A&M vs. BYU
Texas A&M is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Texas A&M is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
BYU is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
BYU is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

NORTHERN IOWA vs. PURDUE
Northern Iowa is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Northern Iowa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Purdue is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games

RADFORD vs. NORTH CAROLINA
No trends available
North Carolina is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
North Carolina is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games

MARYLAND vs. CALIFORNIA
Maryland is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Maryland's last 7 games
California is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
California is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games

CHATTANOOGA vs. CONNECTICUT
Chattanooga is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Chattanooga is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Connecticut is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Connecticut is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games

MISSISSIPPI STATE vs. WASHINGTON
Mississippi State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

MICHIGAN vs. CLEMSON
Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Clemson is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Clemson is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games

MINNESOTA vs. TEXAS
Minnesota is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Texas is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games

AMERICAN vs. VILLANOVA
No trends available
Villanova is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Villanova is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games

AKRON vs. GONZAGA
Akron is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Akron is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Gonzaga is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

BINGHAMTON vs. DUKE
No trends available
Duke is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

MORGAN STATE vs. OKLAHOMA
No trends available
Oklahoma is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Oklahoma is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games

VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH vs. UCLA
Virginia Commonwealth is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Virginia Commonwealth is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
UCLA is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
UCLA is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

WESTERN KENTUCKY vs. ILLINOIS
Western Kentucky is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Western Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Illinois is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Illinois's last 6 games

Posted : March 17, 2009 5:50 pm

blade

(@blade)

Posts: 318493

Illustrious Member

Topic starter

NCAAB Today

Thursday, March 19

Thursday afternoon
Northridge lost both starting guards to off-field incidents after starting its season 0-5 vs D-I teams, losing to Stanford by 18, New Mexico by 11, Rider by 13, UCLA by 18, but Matadors wound up winning both regular season and Big West conference tourney. Memphis won its last four first round NCAA Games by 16-16-15-24 points. Big West teams lost three in a row in NCAAs, losing by 8-15-35 points. Memphis is 13-4 against spread in its last 17 games.

9-seed Texas A&M (-1) beat BYU 67-62 in first round LY; same exact scenario here, except Cougars are 10-2 in last 12 games, with two losses by combined total of three points. Cougars are 12-2 out of conference, losing by 7 to Wake Forest, 1 to Arizona State in Phoenix. Aggles blew a 22-point lead to Texas Tech in first round of Big 12 tourney, snapping a 6-game win streak; they're 14-1 outside of Big 12, losing to Tulsa by 11.

Young Butler (341st in experience) is 4-3 in last seven games, after 22-2 start, which included wins at Xavier, Davidson. Experienced LSU (24th in experience) lost three of its last four games after 13-1 midseason run; Tigers' non-SEC schedule ranked 308th- they lost at Texas A&M, Utah un only two non-league road games. Tigers have guys who played in a Final Four- they're 2-5 vs spread in last seven games as a fave. Butler is 5-0 vs spread as an underdog this season.

Northern Iowa won last five games after 1-4 February skid; they lost at Iowa by 19 Dec 9, in only game vs Big 11 opponent; Panthers only have one senior in their rotation, play slowish (318th) pace- they covered last nine tries as an underdog. Purdue won Big 11 tourney Sunday, plays on Thursday afternoon, a quick turnaround; they're 5-6 vs spread in last 11 games as a favorite. Boilers (-25) beat Indiana State by 14 in their only game vs MVC opponent this season.

North Carolina won last seven first round games (3-2-2 vs spread); they waxed NC-Asheville 116-48 Nov 30. Radford beat their conference rival Asheville three times, but all three were close games. Radford lost by 2 to Virginia, by 22 to Virginia, in its two games vs ACC foes- they also got crushed by 35 at West Virginia. Lawson isn't supposed to play here, as Tar Heels try to get his foot healthier for when they play better foes. #1 seeds are 6-9-1 vs spread in first round games the last four years.

California lost four of last six games, allowing 77.8 ppg in last five; they are 11-2 outside Pac-10, losing 80-77 to Florida State on neutral floor, in its only game vs ACC foe. Bears lost 93-66 at Mizzou Dec 7, are back in Missouri again- they shoot 43.4% beyond arc, best in nation. Maryland is 4-5 in last nine games; they're mediocre defending treys. Cal starts four juniors and a sophomore, Terps three juniors and a senior. Maryland is 11-3 outside ACC, losing to Morgan State at home.

UConn is 1-9 vs spread in last 10 first round games; they haven't won a postseason game of any kind since '06, are coming off epic six-OT loss to Syracuse in Big East tourney. Huskies whacked Western Carolina 81-55 in season opener; Western split pair of games with Chattanooga-- Mocs are 18-16, won SoCon tourney on their home floor- they lost by 39 at Tennessee, 28 at Missouri, 12 to Memphis, 27 to USC. If UConn has anything in its tank, this could be ugly.

Mississippi State won, covered last five games; they have to travel long way, play Thursday after winning SEC title Sunday. Bulldogs lost 63-52 to Washington State on neutral floor in November, are 8-5 outside SEC. Washington ranks 6th in pace, Miss State 92nd; Bulldogs had scored 75+ points 11 games in row before they got bogged down playing 3rd, 4th day in row at SEC tourney. Interesting contrast; Bulldogs rank 4th in US in blocked shots, Washington ranks 3rd in offensive rebounding.

Thursday night games
Michigan split pair of games with Duke, lost 75-70 at Maryland in three games vs ACC teams; they're 3-3 in last six games and 4-2 vs spread last six games as an underdog. Clemson won by hoop at Illinois in only game vs Big 11 foe- Tigers lost four of last five games, allowing 91 ppg in last two games. Wolverines are young team that plays slowish pace, and an unusual 1-3-1 defense. Over last four seasons, favorites are 13-3 against the spread in 7-10 games.

Minnesota is 4-7 in last 11 games; they're 0-8 vs spread in its last eight games as an underdog. Gophers are 12-0 outside Big 11 (beat Louisville 70-64 in Phoenix)- they're young team that plays slowish pace (219th). Texas is 2-3 in last five games, 4-8 vs spread in last dozen tries as fave-- they struggled with point guard play this year. Longhorns went 12-2 in a tough pre-conference schedule; they won 74-69 at Wisconsin, lost 67-63 to Michigan State in Houston, which is still Longhorn country.

American (+18) got to NCAAs for the first time LY, lost to Tennessee 72-57; Patriot League teams are just 2-15 SU in this event, but are 6-2 vs spread in this round the last eight years. American lost to Oklahoma by 29, Georgetown by 24, Maryland by 16- they have seven seniors, make 37.7% of their 3's. Villanova beat Navy of Patriot League 78-68; they're 1-4 vs spread in last five games as a favorite. #3 seeds are 7-1 vs spread in this round the last two seasons.

Akron is in NCAAs for first time since '86; they're 8-6 outside its league, losing by 19 at Pitt, 4 to Dayton, 29 at Rhode Island. Zips are 14-3 their last 17 games, 7-4 vs spread as a dog. MAC teams are 0-5 in this event last five years, losing by 13-5-10-2-13 points, but they're 5-1 vs spread in last six tourney games as an underdog. Gonzaga won 17 of last 18, is 5-1 vs spread in last six games as favorite- they went 9-5 against difficult non-league schedule, then went 16-0 in the WCC.

Morgan State won at Maryland; they play good defense (ranked 12th in effective defense), are experienced team (26th). MEAC teams are 9-0 vs spread in last nine non-play-in games. Bears are coached for former Cal coach Bozeman. Oklahoma lost four of last six games, is rumored to have chemistry issues; they're 3-6 vs spread in last nine games as fave-- they beat Coppin State of MEAC 93-62 Jan 3. #2 seeds are 6-10 vs spread in first round the last four seasons.

America East teams are 1-11 in NCAAs last 12 years (Vermont got the only win), 4-8 vs spread; Binghamton is more athletic than Duke, but its guards make bad decisions with ball- they play at pretty good pace (89) but don't shoot it well- they beat Rutgers 66-56, won 74-73 at Tulane, lost 82-80 to Manhattan. Duke failed to cover last four first round tilts, are 0-6 vs spread in first round when they've been lower than a #1 seed. Duke won six of last seven games (0-3 in last three tries as favorite).

VCU is only couple hours from Philly, UCLA is 2,700 miles away, but Bruins have been in Final Four last three years. Both sides have superior senior guard- rest of VCU's team is very young. CAA teams are 7-2-1 vs spread in last 10 first round games. Rams won last six games, but are 7-5 outside of CAA, losing at URI by 6, Vandy by 5, Oklahoma by 11, by 1 at Nevada. UCLA won five of last six games, is 4-1 vs spread in last five games as favorite, 6-4 vs spread as a non-conference favorite.

Western Kentucky won last seven games, 15 of last 17, after losing early in season by 32 at Evansville, 28 at Murray State; they beat Louisville on neutral court, still went just 5-5 outside the Sun Belt. Hilltoppers got to Sweet 16 LY, under former coach Horn. Illinois is 12-1 in non-league games, beating Mizzou by 16, Vandy by 6, losing by hoop to Clemson. Illini lost three of last four games, scoring just 61.3 ppg. Faves are 8-4 vs spread in 5-12 games the last three tournaments.

Posted : March 18, 2009 6:37 am

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CBB Streaks & Notes
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Maryland (10) vs California (7)
Terps earned their ticket to the Dance defeating North Carolina State, upsetting seventh-ranked Wake Forest before losing by six to Duke in the ACC semifinals. Cashing all three of those games along with being 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games, 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten in the underdog roll makes them another team that could play havoc against a 7th seed. Golden Bears have been a bust at the betting window cashing a single ticket in it's last six tries. Golden Bears have also been bad bets on neutral hardwood (1-4 ATS L5) and in NCAA Tournament games (2-4 ATS)

Michigan (10) vs Clemson (7)
Tigers struggled down the stretch going 1-3 to end regular then prompty fell 86-81 to Georgia Tech in the ACC Conference Tournament giving the team a 1-4 ATS record it's past five. Tigers with little NCAA Tournament experience the past 5 years (0-1) and 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site games as a favorite are a dicey #7 this season. Wolverines off a remarkable 20-win season after 22 losses a year ago could upset the apple cart. Then again, Wolverines were a lowsy 3-6-1 ATS on the highway this season, just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games as an underdog and haven't had much success vs ACC foes going 1-5-1 ATS last seven

Minnesota (10) vs Texas (7)
Longhorns off an 0-2-1 ATS Conference tournament bring to the Dance a 3-10-1 ATS record it's last fourteen on the hardwood along with a cash draining 1-7 ATS mark last eight NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 or less. Meanwhile Golden Gophers are 4-11 ATS L15, 3-8 ATS in their last eleven neutral site games, 3-7 ATS last ten vs a Big 12 opponent.

Southern California (10) vs Boston College (7)
Trojans winning the Pac-10 Tourney enter on a 5-0 SU & ATS hot streak but keep in mind Eagles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as an underdog, 8-4 ATS last twelve in NCAA Tournament games while Trojans are 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site games as a favorite, 3-4 running the hardwood vs the ACC.

Posted : March 18, 2009 6:52 am

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BINGHAMTON (23 - 8) vs. DUKE (28 - 6) - 3/19/2009, TBA
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DUKE is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) in March games since 1997.