East Regional Sweet 16 Picks
By DAVID PAYNE
No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats (-8.5, 147) vs. No. 12 Cornell Big Red
If you haven’t figured it out yet, Cornell is not just a bunch of nerds going backdoor for fundamentally-sound left-handed lay-ups. These guys can hoop and are completely capable of hanging with Kentucky – if they play as well as they have in the first two rounds.
That’s a gigantic if, because the Big Red (29-4, 18-10) has been damn near perfect. They’ve shot a ridiculous 58.7 percent from the field in blowout wins over Temple and Wisconsin. If that continues, even mighty Kentucky will have its hands full.
The Wildcats (34-2, 19-15 ATS) have been equally as dominant, although their opening beat down of East Tennessee State doesn’t carry as much weight as either of Cornell’s tournament wins.
Still, no team left in the field can counter the amount of NBA talent UK coach John Calipari can put on the court, certainly not an Ivy League squad. But this isn’t the first time Cornell has faced superior talent. They gave Kansas fits, out-rebounding the Jayhawks in a tight five-point loss in Lawrence.
They’ll need a similar on the backboards against Kentucky’s giant front line. Cornell also must stay out of foul trouble. There’s a much greater drop off from starters to bench at Cornell than Kentucky.
In the end, it’s hard to go against these teams that get on ridiculously hot runs during the tournament. (Think Davidson two years ago). The line has been bet down from its opening 9.5, so someone believes
Cornell will hang.
Prediction: Kentucky 77, Cornell 71
No. 2 West Virginia Mountaineers (-4, 140.5) vs. No. 12 Washington Huskies
West Virginia continues to win ugly, pounding away at opponents with Bob Huggins’ trademark physical style.
But can they do it without their point guard, Darryl Bryant, who is done for the year after suffering a broken bone in his foot during practice Tuesday?
Bryant was solid, but certainly not spectacular. He averaged just four points and two assists in the tournament. His replacement, junior Joe Mazzulla, is even less of an offensive threat but has received regular playing time throughout the season.
The line opened at WVU -4.5 and came down only slightly after news broke of Bryant’s injury. So his absence isn’t expected to be the make-or-beak difference. It will, however, become a much bigger story if Massulla gets in foul trouble. West Virginia doesn’t have an experienced point guard behind him.
That’s definitely a concern against Washington’s up-tempo style.
The Huskies (26-9, 16-18), led by leading scorer and Quincy Pondexter and lightning-quick Isaiah Thomas, are averaging 81 points a game in the tournament. They’re going to push the pace and try to avoid getting into a half-court slugfest with the bigger Mountaineers.
But teams have managed to find ways to slow it down against Washington. The Huskies were held to just 59 points in wins over Oregon State and Washington State. Georgetown held Washington to 66 points in a early December win.
If West Virginia (29-6, 15-19 ATS) grabs control of the tempo, the Huskies must remain competitive on the backboards. The Mountaineers thrive off of offensive rebounds.
Prediction: West Virginia 71, Washington 66
West Regional Sweet 16 Picks
By SCOTT COOLEY
Syracuse Orange vs. Butler Bulldogs (+6, 138.5)
The Orange took out one pack of Bulldogs in the second round of the Big Dance and will aim to drown another in the Sweet 16.
Syracuse has relied on its relentless zone defense it its first two tournament wins, holding opponents to 18.6 percent (8-for-43) shooting from beyond the arc. Wes Johnson’s double-double performance of 31 points and 14 rebounds against Gonzaga Sunday didn’t hurt either.
But even behind an incredible offensive output, Johnson still couldn’t get his mind away from the defensive mentality Jim Boeheim has instilled in his team.
"Really, my mindset was to be aggressive on defense, so I think that carried over to the offensive end," said Johnson.
The Achilles’ heel for the Orange in that game was the Zags’ frontcourt which registered 38 points in the paint. Arinze Onuaku’s injury has left a gaping hole in the middle for Cuse, but fortunately for the No. 1 seed Butler doesn’t boast a true big man down low.
These two teams couldn’t be more different in playing styles. Butler played a pair of up-tempo teams in the first two rounds, but was able to take their opponents out of their gameplans and slow the pace down. Syracuse won’t mind letting off the pedal some, but will still look to capitalize in transition.
The Bulldogs gave up 70 points or more three times all season while the Orange scored fewer than 70 only three times. Butler lost all three games when taken out of its element and Syracuse went 1-2.
"This team has come to play every game," Boeheim said after the win Sunday. "I've never had a team that's come to play every game."
That’s a scary statement for the remaining tournament teams. Syracuse has too much athleticism for the Bulldogs to handle and will continue its dominant march through the tournament.
Prediction: Syracuse 71, Butler 58
Xavier Musketeers vs. Kansas State Wildcats (-4.5, 153.5)
The Musketeers are in their third straight Sweet 16 and don’t dare call Xavier a mid-major team.
"We don't look at ourselves as being anything other than a high-major program," first-year coach Chris Mack said. "From the way we travel, to the way we recruit, to the amenities our kids enjoy."
Mack has stated that his “kids aren’t scared to play anybody" and they will have to keep that mindset going up against a team that humbled them earlier this season.
Kansas State cruised to a 71-56 victory over Xavier on Dec. 8, leading by no less than 11 points in the second half. The Musketeers failed to cover the 6.5-point spread and the game went well under the total of 146.5.
Interior rebounding has been a problem for Xavier all season and that shortcoming was apparent in the earlier matchup as the Wildcats scored 16 points off 14 offensive rebounds.
Just to drive home how one-sided that game was, K-State missed 17 free throws and went 4-for-17 from downtown, and still won by 15 points. In the Cats victory over BYU Saturday, the team hit 90 percent (27-30) of its shots from the charity stripe and shot better than 40 percent from 3-point range.
But the X-Men have their superhero in Jordan Crawford, who has dropped in 55 points in two tournament games. Jacob Pullen will be assigned to contain the Musketeers’ leading scorer as he did in their first meeting when he held Crawford to 16 points.
Pullen said after the BYU game that he had studied Jimmer Fredette’s crossover move which allowed him to hold his opponent to 4-of-13 shooting. Pullen should be just as prepared for Crawford, if not more so, having already faced him once this season.
The nation’s No. 4-ranked offensive rebounding team (15.2 per game) will afford the Wildcats with too many second-chance opportunities for this Xavier squad to keep its head above water.
Prediction: Kansas State 77, Xavier 65
(5) Butler (30-4, 14-20 ATS) vs. (1) Syracuse (30-4, 21-9 ATS)
Butler brings the nation’s longest active winning streak into the Sweet 16, having won 22 consecutive games (10-12 ATS). After blowout out UTEP 77-59 as a 2½-point favorite in last Thursday’s opening round of the Big Dance in San Jose, the Bulldogs barely held off 13th-seeded Murray State 54-52 on Saturday, coming up just short as a four-point chalk. Over the past five games, Butler has averaged 68.6 ppg on an even 45 percent shooting, while holding foes to just 56.8 ppg on 39.3 percent shooting. In fact, it has held nine of its last 10 opponents under 60 points.
Syracuse had lost two in a row SU and ATS heading into the Big Dance – it’s only two-game slide of the season – but it had no trouble at all in its first two Tournament games in Buffalo. First, it ripped No. 16 seed Vermont 79-56 as a 15½-point favorite Friday, then drubbed eighth-seeded Gonzaga 87-65 laying 6½ points Sunday. The Orange have scored at least 75 points in seven of their last eight games, going 6-2 SU and ATS.
These teams met in the second round of the NIT in 2002, with the ‘Cuse eking out a 66-65 overtime victory, and Butler cashing as a two-point road pup.
Butler, in its fourth straight Tourney and ninth overall, has reached the third round for the third time since 2003, but the Bulldogs have never advanced beyond this point. In 2007, they lost to eventual champion Florida 65-57, cashing as a 10½-point underdog. Syracuse, in its 32nd Big Dance, is also in the regional semis for the third time in eight years. In 2003, the Orange went all the way to their first and only title; but in 2004 and 2009, they fell at this point, including last year’s 84-71 setback to Oklahoma as a one-point underdog.
Butler is 3-3 at neutral venues, outscoring teams by less than one point per game (67.8-67.0) while getting outshot 45.6 percent to 39.8 percent. Meanwhile, the Orange are now 5-1 SU and ATS at neutral sites, averaging a whopping 86.2 ppg on 54.6 percent shooting, while allowing 71.5 ppg on 42.3 percent shooting.
The Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral-site starts, 1-4 ATS in their last five as a neutral-site pup and 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday outings, but they are also 21-7 ATS in their last 28 as a ‘dog regardless of venue. Syracuse, the No. 2 spread-covering unit in the country, is on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 29-11 overall, 8-2 in non-conference action, 26-10 as a favorite, 9-3 at neutral sites and 5-1 as a neutral-site favorite.
Butler is on a 6-1 “under” surge, though those were all as a chalk. The Bulldogs carry a handful of “over” streaks, as well, including 11-3 at neutral sites, 21-11 outside the Horizon League and 4-1 in the Tournament. Syracuse brings in “over” runs of 6-0-1 overall, 6-2 in non-conference action, 17-5 at neutral sites, 5-0-1 as a favorite and 5-1 as a neutral-site favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SYRACUSE and OVER
(6) Xavier (26-8, 22-11 ATS) vs. (2) Kansas State (28-7, 20-9-1 ATS)
Xavier is on a 10-1 SU roll, going 8-3 ATS in that stretch, including a pair of SU and ATS wins in the first two rounds of this event in Milwaukee. On Friday, the Musketeers dropped No. 11 seed Minnesota 65-54 giving 1½ points, then came back Sunday and edged third-seeded Pittsburgh 71-68 as a 1½-point pup. Xavier is putting up an average of 78.4 ppg in its last five starts, while allowing 71.2 ppg.
Kansas State is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five outings, with the lone loss coming to top-ranked Kansas in the Big 12 tournament title game. The Wildcats cruised through last weekend in Oklahoma City, ripping No. 15 seed North Texas 82-62 as a 15-point chalk last Thursday and besting BYU 84-72 Saturday as a four-point favorite. K-State has eclipsed the 80-point mark offensively in five of its last six and eight of its last 11 contests.
These teams have some recent and distant history. Xavier beat Kansas State 87-79 in the first round of the 1990 Big Dance. Much more recently, the Musketeers and Wildcats met in three straight seasons before taking a break this year. Xavier went 2-1 SU and ATS in those contests, winning 76-66 as a 7½-point home chalk in January 2007 and 103-77 giving nine points at home 11 months later. K-State took the most recent meeting 71-56 as a 6½-point home favorite in January 2009, meaning the favorite cashed in all three contests.
Xavier, making its 21st all-time appearance and fifth in a row, is in the round of 16 for the third straight season. Two years ago at this stage, the Musketeers topped West Virginia 79-75 in overtime as a 1½-point underdog, but last year, they lost to Pitt 60-55, cashing as a 6½-point pup.
Kansas State, which is in the Tournament for the second time in three seasons after a 12-year drought, has reached the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1988, when it beat Purdue before losing to Kansas in the regional final.
The Musketeers are 4-3 SU and ATS at neutral venues this season, putting up 72 ppg (41.2 percent shooting) and allowing 70.1 ppg (40.9 percent). K-State is 7-2 (6-3 ATS) on neutral floors this season, averaging 79.9 ppg and giving up 72.2 ppg. The SU winner has cashed in each of Xavier’s seven neutral games this year and each of the Wildcats’ last eight.
The Musketeers are on numerous spread-covering surges, including 37-17-2 overall, 37-15 on neutral courts, 4-1 in non-conference play, 15-4 as a neutral-site ‘dog, 15-5-1 in the Tournament and 9-1 as a tourney pup. Similarly, the Wildcats are on ATS tears of 19-7-1 overall, 8-0 outside the Big 12, 16-4-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 16-5-1 as a favorite, 6-1 at neutral sites and 6-0 as a neutral-site chalk.
Xavier is on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall, 5-1 getting points, 5-1 as a Tournament pup, 14-3 after a spread-cover, 16-5 after a SU win, 6-2 outside the Atlantic 10 and 5-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600. Also, the over is 5-2 in K-State’s last seven as a neutral-site chalk. However, the under is on runs of 11-4 for Xavier at neutral sites and 4-1 for the Musketeers in the Big Dance, and Kansas State is on “under” strings of 7-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 5-1-1 after a SU win and 5-1 after a spread cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS STATE
(11) Washington (26-9, 15-18 ATS) vs. (2) West Virginia (29-6, 15-19 ATS)
Washington, one of three double-digit seeds advancing into the Sweet 16, has won nine in a row SU, going a stout 8-1 ATS in that stretch. The Huskies squeaked by No. 6 seed Marquette 80-78 as a one-point underdog in the opening round last Thursday, then actually went off as a two-point chalk against third-seeded New Mexico on Saturday and pounded the Lobos 82-64. Washington shot a combined 51.2 percent in the two wins in San Jose, six percentage points better than its opponents (45.3 percent).
The Mountaineers have won eight in a row (4-4 ATS), and they rolled through the first two rounds of the Big Dance in Buffalo with Friday’s 77-50 rout of 15th-seeded Morgan State as a 17-point chalk and Sunday’s 68-59 win over 10th-seeded Missouri as a six-point favorite. West Virginia is averaging a modest 62.4 ppg on 40.5 percent shooting in its last five outings, all on neutral floors, but its defense has been sterling, yielding just 53.8 ppg on stifling 34.0 percent shooting.
West Virginia received bad news Tuesday when starting point guard Darryl Bryant broke his foot in practice. He’ll be out the rest of the tournament. However, Bryant played a total of just 38 minutes in last weekend’s action, scoring four points in each of the two wins.
Washington, in its 15th Big Dance, has reached the third round for the third time in the last six Tournament appearances. However, the Huskies bowed out at this point the last two times, losing to Louisville 93-79 as a 1½-point underdog in 2005 and to UConn 98-92 as a 6½-point underdog a year later. In fact, Washington has never won a third-round game, going 0-5.
West Virginia, which received its highest seed in school history this year, is in its third straight Tournament and fifth in the last six years. The Mountaineers lost their last two third-round contests, however, 74-71 to Texas in 2006 (cashing as a five-point underdog) and 79-75 to Xavier in 2008 (as a 1½-point favorite). Their only Elite Eight appearance since 1959 came in 2005.
Washington is 5-1 at neutral venues (4-2 ATS) – winning the last five in a row – outscoring teams by an average of 6.4 ppg (74.2-67.8) and shooting 47.8 percent to 41.5 percent for the opposition. The Mountaineers have won all nine of their neutral-site contests, prevailing by an average of 11 ppg (69.1-58.1) and outshooting foes 43.4 percent to 37.6 percent.
The Huskies have covered in four in a row at neutral sites during their 8-1 ATS tear, and they are on further spread-covering upturns of 7-1 after a SU win, 6-1 after a spread-cover and 6-1 in the Tournament. But they are also 5-9 ATS in their last 14 outside the Pac-10, 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a ‘dog and 2-5 ATS in their last seven Thursday starts.
The Mountaineers, meanwhile, are on ATS rolls of 10-2-1 in the Big Dance, 6-2 as a Tournament chalk and 5-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600, but they are on a 5-18 ATS freefall as a favorite of less than seven points.
The under is 18-9 in Washington’s last 26 non-conference games, but the Huskies are on “over” surges of 18-8 after a spread-cover, 25-12 coming off a SU win, 16-5 on Thursday, 4-0 as a pup and 6-1 as a neutral-site ‘dog. The Mountaineers are on a stream of “under” streaks, including 8-2 overall (6-0 last six), 5-0 as a chalk, 6-0 on neutral floors and 5-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WEST VIRGINIA
(12) Cornell (29-4, 18-10 ATS) vs. (1) Kentucky (34-2, 19-15 ATS)
Cornell, the Ivy League champion and another double-digit seed still dancing, pulled off a pair of upsets last weekend in Jacksonville, Fla. First, the Big Red tamed fifth-seeded Temple 78-65 as a three-point ‘dog Friday, then blistered No. 4 seed Wisconsin 87-69 getting 4½ points Sunday. Cornell has now win nine in a row (5-4 ATS) and 17 of its last 18 since losing by just five points at then-No. 1 Kansas on Jan. 6.
Kentucky, the SEC regular-season and tourney champ, has won seven in a row (4-3 ATS), including five straight on neutral floors (3-2 ATS). The Wildcats easily won and covered in their first two Tournament tilts, pounding East Tennessee State 100-71 laying 18½ points Thursday, then drubbing No. 8 seed Wake Forest 90-60 giving 9½ points Saturday. John Calipari’s troops average 80.1 ppg overall (ninth nationally) on 48.4 percent shooting, while allowing 65.3 ppg with the nation’s fourth-stingiest field-goal defense (37.9 percent).
Cornell has won three straight Ivy League titles to get the automatic Big Dance bid, but prior to last weekend’s two upsets, the Big Red had been 0-5 all-time in this event. Kentucky, meanwhile, has a huge Big Dance resume, playing in this event for the 51st time, advancing to 13 Final Fours and winning seven national championships. The Wildcats are 102-45 SU in the Tournament, but have reached the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2005, when they beat Utah 62-52 as a 4½-point favorite.
Both teams have dominated at neutral venues, with Cornell going 6-0 (5-1 ATS) and Kentucky posting an 8-0 mark (5-3 ATS). The Big Red outscored opponents by 10.9 ppg in those six wins (78.7-67.8) and shot 50.5 percent from the field, while the Wildcats won by an average of 16.3 ppg (77.8-61.5) and outshot opponents by a 49.3 percent to 35.5 percent margin.
The Big Red are on pointspread tears of 4-0 overall, 36-15 in non-conference play, 5-1 at neutral sites, 38-17-1 as an underdog, 4-1 as a neutral-site pup, 7-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 7-2 after a spread-cover.
The Wildcats are in ATS ruts of 1-4 following a SU win of more than 20 points and 8-17 following a spread-cover, but are also on ATS upticks of 5-2 in the Tournament, 5-0 as a favorite in the tourney and 5-1 in non-conference action (4-0 last four).
The Big Red are on “under” runs of 18-10 overall and 12-6-2 as an underdog, but they went over the total in both games last week and also sport “over” trends of 4-1 after a spread-cover, 5-2 outside the Ivy League and 5-2-1 on neutral courts. Kentucky is on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall, 7-1 in non-conference action, 5-1 in the Tournament (4-0 last four) and 13-5 as a tourney chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
East Region Semifinals
By Brian Edwards
After this, all that’s left is kids and memories so we want this to last as long as possible.” -- Cornell senior point guard Louis Dale
The East Region semifinals will take place Thursday at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse, NY. In the lid-lifter, West Virginia will square off against Washington, followed by Cornell vs. Kentucky.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Mountaineers as 3 ½-point favorites with a total of 140. As of early Wednesday morning, most betting shops had Bob Huggins’ team favored by four or 4 1/2 with the total at 142. Bettors can back the Huskies to win outright for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180).
West Virginia (29-6 straight up, 15-19 against the spread) advanced to the Sweet 16 by sending home 15th-seeded Morgan St. and 10th-seeded Missouri. The ‘Neers got off to an inauspicious start in their first-round game against the Bears, trailing by a 10-0 count out of the gate. Nevertheless, they recovered to cruise to a 77-50 win as 17-point favorites.
Kevin Jones scored a game-high 17 points and grabbed eight rebounds, while Devin Ebanks posted a double-double with 16 points and 13 boards.
Next, WVU dropped Missouri 68-59 to take the cash as a six-point ‘chalk.’ Da’Sean Butler erupted for 28 points, while Butler and Jones went for 14 and 13 points, respectively, against the Tigers.
During Tuesday’s practice, WVU starting point guard Darryl ‘Truck’ Bryant broke his foot. The sophomore's loss is big, but not a complete deal-breaker in my opinion. The Mountaineers will turn to junior guard Joe Mazzulla, who plays an excellent floor game and has loads of experience. However, due to a shoulder injury that has bothered him throughout the last two seasons, Mazzulla’s perimeter shooting has been rendered completely ineffective.
In fact, he hasn’t hit a 3-pointer all year, missing all five attempts. Mazzulla’s free-throw percentage has dipped to 55%. Bryant, who attended St. Raymond’s High School in the Bronx, was second on the team in 3-pointers made and free throws made.
Washington (26-9 SU, 16-18 ATS) has caught fire at the right time, winning nine straight games while compiling an 8-1 spread record. The Huskies beat Marquette in one of the best games of the tournament so far, rallying for an 80-78 win on Quincy Pondexter’s game-winning bucket with 1.7 seconds remaining. They cashed tickets as one-point underdogs in the opening-round win over the Golden Eagles.
Lorenzo Romar’s squad was dominant in the second round, trouncing New Mexico by an 82-64 count as a two-point favorite. Pondexter scored a team-high 18 points, while Isaiah Thomas had 15 points and seven assists.
Washington is 2-4 both SU and ATS in six underdog spots. Meanwhile, WVU owns an 8-10 ATS ledger in 18 games as a single-digit favorite.
The ‘under’ has cashed in six consecutive games for West Va, improving to 18-14 overall. The ‘over’ is 16-14 overall for the Huskies.
This game will come off the board at 7:25 p.m. Eastern.
As we move our conversation to Cornell-Kentucky, let’s get a few things straight right off the bat. For starters, let’s be crystal clear that Cornell’s presence in the Sweet 16 is no joke and, to loyal readers of this space, no surprise whatsoever. We’ve been hyping this senior-laded club since it spanked Alabama in Tuscaloosa in its season opener.
Steve Donahue’s squad showed remarkable offensive efficiency against two of the best defenses in the nation last weekend. The Big Red stroked fifth-seeded Temple 78-65 as a three-point underdog, hooking up money-line backers with a plus-140 payout at tip time (the money-line play was as generous as plus-170 earlier in the week).
Louis Dale had 21 points and seven assists against the Owls, while Ryan Wittman had 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting from the field and 4-of-6 on attempts from 3-point range. Jeff Foote, the senior 7-foot center, had 16 points and seven rebounds.
After the win over Temple, some thought Cornell (29-4 SU, 18-10 ATS) would be like Vermont in 2005 or Princeton in 1996 and 1998. In other words, it was a nice story but it was going no further.
Wrong!
Cornell jumped all over fourth-seeded Wisconsin early and often, taking a 72-43 lead with 10:53 left after Dale completed a three-point play the hard way. The Badgers, notorious for tenacious defense during Bo Ryan’s tenure that’s produced NCAA Tournament appearances every season, had allowed more than 72 points in just two games this year.
They surrendered 74 points to Gonzaga in Hawaii way back in November. Also, Wisconsin-Green Bay put up 88 on Wisky in an overtime game (just 75 at the end of regulation). And Cornell had produced a 72-spot in only 29 minutes against Ryan’s bunch that had wins over Duke, Michigan St., Purdue, Ohio St., Maryland and Marquette.
After icing the clock down the stretch against Wisconsin, Cornell cruised to an 87-69 victory as a 4 ½-point underdog. Most gamblers taking the Big Red to win outright were rewarded with a plus-160 payout (paid $160 on $100 wagers).
Dale was spectacular once again, finishing with a game-high 26 points. Wittman had 24 points on 10-of-15 shoting, scoring on an array of catch-and-shoot jumpers (just like his Daddy coming off screens and getting passes from Doc Rivers for my Hawks back in the ‘80s!). Wittman also has an excellent knack for creating space for himself off the dribble and taking a fadeaway mid-range jumper.
Foote had 12 points, seven rebounds and four assists against the Badgers. Foote certainly doesn’t have the bulk of Kentucky’s DeMarcus Cousins, but he’s got excellent footwork around the basket, a nice touch on his shot and he’s an outstanding passer for a big man (sort of reminding me of Florida’s Dwayne Schintzius circa late ‘80s).
Like Cornell, Kentucky (34-2 SU, 19-15 ATS) was dominant last weekend. The ‘Cats took East Tennessee St. behind the woodshed from the get-go, capturing a 101-70 win to easily hook up their backers who were laying 18 ½ points. Eric Bledsoe had a game-high 29 points, draining 8-of-9 shots from beyond the arc. Patrick Patterson had 22 points, while John Wall finished with 17 points and 11 assists.
In its second-round game against Wake Forest, UK delivered another shellacking, this time in the form of a 90-60 clubbing as a 9 ½-point favorite. Darius Miller went for 20 points and nine rebounds, while Cousins scored 19 points and pulled down eight boards. Wall added 14 points and seven assists, although we should note his five turnovers.
Cornell has been listed as an underdog seven times, posting a 5-2 SU record and a 6-1 ATS mark. Meanwhile, John Calipari’s team owns a 10-5 spread record in 15 games as a single-digit favorite.
The ‘over’ has hit in three straight UK games to improve to 18-15 overall.
The ‘under’ is 12-10 overall for Cornell, although the ‘over’ prevailed in both of its games last weekend.
This game will be played 30 minutes after WVU-Washington concludes. You can be assured that at least 12-15 thousand UK fans will find their way into the Carrier Dome. Likewise, a strong Cornell contingent will be on hand, as the school’s campus in Ithaca is just a one-hour drive to Syracuse. Also, it’s a given that every non-UK fan in attendance will be rooting for the Big Red.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
For bettors thinking Kentucky’s athleticism will be like nothing Cornell has seen, think again. The Big Red played at Kansas this year and had a one-point lead in the final minute before Sherron Collins made several big plays to lead KU to a 71-66 win. Donahue’s team has also played at the Carrier Dome this year, losing 88-73 to the Orange in a game the ‘Cuse led 42-36 at halftime.
West Va. and Washington shared three common foes this season – Marquette, Georgetown and Texas A&M. The ‘Neers beat the Hoyas twice and also won against the Golden Eagles and Aggies. The Huskies beat Marquette and Texas A&M, but they lost to Georgetown by a 74-66 count.
I love it when ESPN’s Doug Gottlieb talks about players being ineffective offensively. Gottlieb, a point guard, had a career free-throw percentage of 45.7%, which is obviously pathetic. When I was eight years old, I could hit 60-percent from the charity stripe. In a four-year collegiate career at Notre Dame (one year) and Oklahoma St. (three years), he shot 36.8% from the floor and 24% from 3-point land. Just the facts, folks, just the facts.
Since I got in a St. Raymond’s High School reference earlier in regards to Truck Bryant, let’s get a shout-out in to my favorite all-time point guard from St. Raymond’s, former UTEP point guard Eddie Rivera, who absolutely dominated the now-defunct Governor’s Cup Tournament in Tallahassee at the Leon Co. Civic Center (where FSU plays) during the 1989 Christmas Holidays. Other big-time players that once played in the Governor’s Cup include Andrew Moten (Florida), Dwayne Schintzius (Florida), Toney Mack (Georgia), Robert Horry (Alabama), Avery Curry (FSU and Idaho) and Darryl Prue (West Va.).
vegasinsider.com.
Midwest Region Semifinals
By Judd Hall
The Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, Missouri is the locale for the Midwest Region semifinals on Friday night. Things get kicked off with Ohio State taking on Tennessee in a rematch of the 2007 South semis. After that game goes final, Northern Iowa will look to shove its foot back into the glass slipper when they face Michigan State in the nightcap.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants initially opened the Buckeyes up as 4 ½-point favorites with a total of 135. Most betting shops have adhered to that same spread, but the total has shrunk slightly to 134. For those bettors wanting to back Tennessee (27-8 straight up, 13-16-1 against the spread), they’ll get a plus-175 return (risk $100 to $175) on the outright win.
Ohio State (29-7 SU, 17-14 ATS) comes into its second Sweet Sixteen berth in four years after dumping the 15th-seeded Gauchos in the first round and sending the 10th-seeded Yellow Jackets packing.
The Bucks failed to cover as 17 ½-point faves in their 68-51 win over Cal-Santa Barbara, but were never in danger of falling in this tilt. Evan Turner was tossing up cinder blocks in that opener with nine points on 2-of-13 shooting from the field. John Diebler was there to pick up the slack with 23 points as he went 7-of-12 from beyond the arc.
OSU needs Turner and Diebler to put up strong numbers every time out because things get pretty thin for the team outside of the starting five. To give you an idea of how little depth Thad Matta’s squad has, just consider the playing time against Georgia Tech. Turner, Diebler and William Buford all played 40 minutes. Dallas Lauderdale put in 31 minutes of work, while David Lighty was on the floor for 36 minutes. In the first two rounds of this tourney, Ohio State’s starters played in 312 of a possible 320 minutes of action.
The Volunteers reached the regional semifinals after surviving a scare against 11th-seed San Diego State, then pushing 14th-seed Ohio back to a curb somewhere in Athens. Bruce Pearl’s crew is playing strong at just the right time, going 7-1 SU and 4-3-1 ATS in its last eight contests.
Tennessee came awfully close to not even being in this spot after holding onto a 62-59 over the Aztecs. Wayne Chism made two clutch free throws in the final eight seconds of the game to create the final margin of victory; he wound up with nine points altogether against SDSU. J.P. Prince paced the Vols with 15 points and six boards in the victory.
The Vols didn’t have any issues in running away late against Ohio in an 83-68 triumph as 8 ½-point faves last Saturday. Prince came up big once again with 18 point and four rebounds against the Bobcats.
Tennessee has been listed as an underdog nine times this season, going 4-5 SU and 4-4-1 ATS. In the last six spots, they are 2-4 SU and ATS.
Ohio State is 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS when tabbed as a single-digit “chalk” this year. The ‘over’ has gone 7-4 in those spots as well.
These two teams met in the 2007 South Region semifinals with OSU as a 4 ½-point favorite. Yet the Bucks looked nothing like a team worthy of making a run to the championship game after going down 20 points. Ohio State found a way to fight back and win 85-85 on the strength of a Greg Oden block with 0.2 seconds left.
The Vols did exact some revenge the following season with a 74-69 win in Knoxville, but Ohio State covered as a 11 ½-point road pup.
All told, the Buckeyes are 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in their last three showdowns with UT. The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 in those contests as well.
You’ll see this game tip-off on CBS at 7:10 p.m. EDT.
About 30 minutes after the first game goes final, Northern Iowa (30-4 SU, 22-10-1 ATS) will look to continue its Cinderella run against the Spartans.
There is no discounting how good the Panthers are after looking at their road to the Sweet Sixteen. They opened up with a white-knuckle 69-66 win over UNLV in the first round as one-point favorites. This game appeared to be heading to an extra session with a 66-66 score until Ali Farokhmanesh drilled a three-point jumper with 4.2 seconds left.
Farokhmanesh wasn’t satisfied by showing he had the stones to drop the Rebs. Oh no, he was going to cement his flair for the clutch shot against No. 1 overall seed Kansas. UNI held a comfortable lead for much of the game…that was until the Jayhawks pulled within one at 63-62. The Panthers’ senior guard nailed a three-pointer with 35 seconds on the clock to essentially put the game out of reach. KU made a bucket late, but the UNI walked away with a 69-67 upset as an 11 ½-point underdog. And those gamblers that had the guts to take Ben Jacobson’s club to win outright were rewarded with a plus-700 return (risk $100 to win $700).
Farokhmanesh led Northern Iowa scorers with 16 points, while Jordan Eglseder popped in 14 points with five boards.
Michigan State (26-8 SU, 13-20 ATS) has had to work for this spot in the regional semifinals. The Spartans survived a thriller against 12th-seed New Mexico State 70-67, but failed to cover as 13-point faves. And it didn’t get any easier against for MSU against the No. 4 Terrapins as they won 85-83 as a 1 ½-point pup on Korie Lucious’ three-pointer at the buzzer.
The Spartans’ win over Maryland could be considered one of Tom Izzo’s finer coaching effort considering they were without Kalin Lucas for the final 22 minutes of the game. At first it didn’t look like Lucas’ absence would matter as Michigan State pulled out to a 16-point lead in the second half. But the Terps weren’t going away quietly with Greivis Vasquez scoring 10 points in the final two-minutes of the game. Luckily for the kids from East Lansing that Lucious was able to hit his game-winner from the top of the key.
We’re going to get see if Izzo can paint another masterpiece this weekend as Lucas is out for the tournament with a ruptured left Achilles’ tendon. That means Lucious will be getting the lion’s share of playing time in his absence. While the sophomore can make a clutch shot, his ball-handling and leadership skills are nowhere near what we’ve seen with Lucas over the past three years.
The Spartans have been nothing more than a coin flip this season as single-digit faves, evidenced by a 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS. In the last five instances under this situation, Michigan State has gone 1-4 SU and ATS. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the last five matches.
Northern Iowa have posted a great 6-1 SU and ATS record when listed as an underdog this season with the ‘under’ going 5-1.
The Panthers also have a pristine 4-0 SU and ATS mark when facing teams from the power conference this season. The ’under’ was 2-1 in those games.
UNI has seen the ‘under’ go 17-6 for the entire season, but the ‘over’ has hit in three straight games.
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Thursday's NCAA Games
Cornell shot 56/61% from floor in first two NCAA games, 17-38 from arc, in games they led by 8/12 at half; Big Red has six seniors who play, so they're older team than Kentucky, playing 57 miles from its campus in Ithaca, but Cornell's first two victims ranked 336/340 out of 347 clubs in pace-- Kentucky is 64th, and while they've got young players, they've got young players who will all be in the NBA soon. Wildcats won first two tournament games by 29-30 points. Playing in Carrier Dome isn't good for outside shooters on Cornell-- tougher depth perception.
West Virginia lost PG Bryant (foot) in practice this week, but Mazzulla is senior who can step in vs a fast-paced (10th in country) Washington team that will try to speed Mountaineers (313th in pace) up. Huskies lost 74-66 to Georgetown in Dec 12, beat Marquette 80-78 last week in its games vs Big East opponents. West Virginia held first two opponents to 29/33% last weekend with only 18 turnovers-- Bryant had 8 points in 38 minutes last weekend, with only two turnovers.
Butler won its last 22 games; they shoot 3's at 34.6%- not great, but not terrible (national average is 34.2%)-- they pass well, so they'll get looks vs Syracuse 2-3 zone. Bulldogs lost 72-65 to Georgetown, its only game vs Big East foe this season (+3). Syracuse is 5-2 vs spread in last seven games as favorite- they're 7-2 vs spread as a favorite outside Big East. Orange were 12-25 from arc in win vs Gonzaga. Since 2001, #1 seeds are 20-13 vs spread in regional semis, 14-11 when playing 4-5 seeds.
Kansas State (-5) held Xavier to 29% from floor in rugged 71-56 win on Dec 8 in Little Apple; total of 57 fouls were whistled; K-State was just 23-40 at the line (Samuels was 2-11), X-men 21-33. Wildcats scored 83 ppg in winning first two tourney games, blocking 13 shots, shooting 18-45 from the arc. Xavier won 10 of its last 11 games (only loss in OT to Richmond); they're 0-2 vs Big 12 teams this year, also losing 68-64 on neutral floor Nov 29 to Baylor (-7).
Pacific won at Northern Colorado Monday, now takes long trip east to Boone, NC to face Appalachian State team that outrebounded Marshall 40-25 in 80-72 road win (+9.5). Rumors swirling that ASU's Peterson is candidate for Central Florida job. Pacific got to line 56 times in first two tourney wins, despite being on road for both games.
Tips and Trends
Washington Huskies at West Virginia Mountaineers
Huskies: How quickly a season and perspective can change. Washington was considered one of the weakest Pac-10 Champions in recent memory, until the NCAA Tournament started. The Huskies have beat both Marquette and New Mexico to advance to the Sweet 16. The Huskies are 26-9 SU and 16-18 SU overall this season. Washington has won 9 consecutive games SU entering tonight, with their offense being the biggest reason for their sustained success. The Huskies have scored at least 79 PTS in 6 of their past 7 games. Washington is led by their dynamic duo of F Quincy Pondexter and PG Isaiah Thomas. Pondexter leads the Huskies with 19.7 PPG this season while shooting better than 53% from the field. Thomas averages 17 PPG, along with 4 RPG and 3.1 APG for the Huskies this season. Washington is looking to advance to the Elite Eight for the 1st time in 57 years. The Huskies are 9-7 SU and 8-8 ATS in games played away from home. Washington is 2-4 ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Huskies are only 5-8 ATS in non-conference games this season. Washington will be playing only their 2nd game this season outside of the Pacific time zone this season.
Huskies are 6-1 ATS last 7 NCAA Tournament games.
Over is 6-1 last 7 neutral site games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 63
Mountaineers (-4, O/U 140.5): West Virginia received some tough luck about 54 hours ago when they lost PG Truck Bryant for the rest of the season. The broken foot of Bryant hasn't changed the mood of anyone in the West Virginia camp. In all honesty, if any team left in the Sweet 16 could overcome an injury to their starting PG it would be this Mountaineers team. The Mountaineers depend so heavily on their inside game and stable of Forwards. F Da'Sean Butler leads West Virginia in scoring with 17.5 PPG, including 6.3 RPG and 3.3 APG this season. Forwards Kevin Jones and David Ebanks average nearly 26 PPG and 15.5 RPG combined this season. G Joe Mazzulla will be counted on to fill the shoes of Bryant. West Virginia has won 8 straight games SU entering tonight's contest. The Big East Champions have won thanks to their defense, as they've held each of their past 5 opponents under 60 PTS. The Mountaineers are 16-4 SU and 9-11 ATS away from home this season. West Virginia is 7-10 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. The Mountaineers are a perfect 9-0 SU in neutral court settings this season.
West Virginia is 10-2-1 ATS last 13 NCAA Tournament games.
Under is 6-0 last 6 neutral site games as a favorite.
Key Injuries - G Truck Bryant (foot) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 74 (Side of the Day)
Cornell Big Red at Kentucky Wildcats
Big Red: There simply isn't a better story in CBB, as Cornell is playing the role of Cinderella this year. Cornell has already beaten both Temple and Wisconsin, both of which were considered top 20 teams in the nation. It's been 31 years since an Ivy League team has made it this far in the NCAA Tournament. Cornell is 29-4 SU and 18-10 ATS overall this season. The Big Red dominated Ivy League play, going 13-1 SU. Most critics believe the Big Red haven't played a tough schedule this year, but those same critics fail to remember they've played two #1 seeds in Kansas and Syracuse. Cornell is 18-3 SU and 14-5 ATS away from home this season, including a perfect 6-0 SU in neutral court scenarios. The Big Red is 6-1 ATS as the listed underdog, with their lone ATS loss coming by 2 PTS to Syracuse. Cornell won 5 of those 7 games SU as the listed underdog, losing only to Kansas and Syracuse. Cornell has scored at least 78 PTS in each of their past 4 games. The Big Red are an experienced team led by F Ryan Wittman and G Louis Dale. Wittman averages a team high 17.8 PPG and 4 RPG while shooting 43% from the 3 point line. Dale averages 12.6 PPG and nearly 5 APG this season.
Cornell is 5-1 ATS last 6 neutral site games.
The Over is 5-2 last 7 non-conference games.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 75
Wildcats (-8.5, O/U 147): Kentucky is simply licking their chops now that Kansas is out of the NCAA Tournament and they are facing a double digit seed. This young Wildcats team is certainly full of confidence, so it's up to Coach Calipari to keep them grounded. Kentucky has won both of their NCAA Tournament games by a combined 59 PTS so far, easily the most dominating team thus far in the tournament. The Wildcats have won their past 7 games SU to stand at 34-2 SU overall this season. Kentucky has been ranked in the top 3 nearly all season in various national polls. The Wildcats are 15-2 SU and 11-6 ATS away from home this season, including a perfect 8-0 SU in neutral court settings. Kentucky is 10-5 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. The Wildcats are 9-6 ATS in non-conference games this season. After starting off the season losing back to back games ATS, the Wildcats didn't lose consecutive games ATS the rest of the season. Kentucky is averaging 95 PPG during the NCAA Tournament, after averaging 80 PPG all season long. PG John Wall leads the Wildcats with 16.8 PPG and 6.5 APG, both team highs this season.
Kentucky is 5-0 ATS last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
Over is 7-1 last 8 non-conference games.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 79 (OVER - Total of the Day)