Thursday's Best NCAAB Bet
St. John’s Red Storm at Seton Hall Pirates (2, 129)
St. John’s has made a habit of putting Top 25 teams to shame all year and now has an opportunity to earn a double-bye in next weekend’s Big East Tournament with two wins to close out the regular season.
And considering the Red Storm’s track record so far this year, you have to like their chances against the Pirates and then home to South Florida on Saturday. That said, they aren’t taking these last two tests lightly.
"These games are actually harder," St. John's senior forward Justin Burrell said. "You see when a team that, for the lack of a better word, is supposed to win the game, those games are sometimes close, because teams overlook them, or don't come out with the same intensity. So we're paying attention, focusing in on Seton Hall and making sure we go out and get a victory."
The Red Storm will be up against history on Thursday – they haven’t won at Seton Hall in 13 years. Still, St. John’s is a class above the Pirates and has too much motivation to slip up now.
Pick: St. John’s
NCAA Betting Preview: UCLA at Washington Huskies
By: Brad Young
Two of the Pac-10 Conference’s premier programs collide Thursday night when UCLA (21-8 straight up, 14-14-1 against the spread) visits Washington (19-9 SU, 14-11-1 ATS).
The Bruins are currently locked in a first-place tie in the Pac-10 standings with Arizona at 12-4, while the Huskies are third at 10-6. If the regular season ended today, UCLA would be the second seed in the Pac-10 Tournament while Washington would be third. These two teams would be destined to meet in the tournament semifinals, a crucial contest for two teams trying to improve their NCAA Tournament resumes.
Both the Bruins and Huskies are expected to be around an eighth or a ninth seed for the Big Dance. However, there are still two more games in the regular season to create momentum heading into March Madness.
UCLA forced its way into a first-place tie by routing the Wildcats Saturday as 2 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ 71-49. The combined 120 points never seriously threatened the 141-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the second consecutive contest.
The Bruins opened up a 10-point halftime advantage, 40-30, before dominating the second half with their defense, 31-19. UCLA controlled the game in rebounding, 38-23, and assists, 18-7, while shooting a blistering 53 percent (28-of-53) from the field. The Bruins were a dismal 18 percent from 3-point land (2-of-11), but had 50 points in the paint.
Forward Reeves Nelson stepped up with 27 points and 16 rebounds, while Tyler Honeycutt provided 15 and five. Center Joshua Smith was the only other player to reach double digits in scoring with 17.
Washington was the preseason favorite to win the Pac-10, but the team has had to battle injuries and inconsistency. The Huskies suffered their second straight conference setback with Sunday’s loss to rival Washington State as a 12-point home favorite, 80-69. The combined 149 points went ‘under’ the 157-point closing total.
Washington scored just 17 points in the first half and trailed by seven, then erupted for 52 points after halftime while yielding 56. The Huskies led in rebounding, 42-35, and assists, 13-9, but shot just 34 percent (23-of-68) from the field and 30 percent (8-of-27) from behind the arc.
Guard Isaiah Thomas paced the offense with 21 points and five assists, while forward Matthew Bryan-Amaning had 14 and 10 rebounds. Forward Justin Holiday had a solid effort with 11, four and five in the setback.
Washington has beaten UCLA the previous two encounters SU and ATS after winning the lone meeting this season Dec. 31 as a four-point road ‘chalk,’ 74-63. The combined 137 points never seriously threatened the 151½-point closing total. The Bruins are just 1-7 ATS the past eight games in this series.
UCLA concludes its regular season with Saturday’s matchup at Washington State. The Bruins are 6-2 ATS their previous eight outings overall, with the ‘under’ going 6-2.
Washington guard Scott Suggs (knee) is ‘probable’ versus the Bruins. The Huskies wrap up their regular season with Saturday’s home game against Southern Cal. Washington is 9-4 ATS its last 13 home endeavors, while the ‘over’ is 10-4 the past 14 home games.
ESPN2 will provide coverage of Thursday’s matchup beginning at 6:00 p.m. PT from Washington’s Alaska Airlines Arena. The broadcast is preceded by the Big East contest between St. John's and Seton Hall.
Thursday's Hoop Action
By Judd Hall
We’ve come into the home stretch of the regular season in college basketball with just a few games left before the conference tournaments get underway. That means we’re going to see teams try and pick up some blowout wins. Yes, nothing says that your team is awesome like beating up on the conference doormats.
The beatdown fest begins in the backyard of Tony Soprano as Seton Hall (11-17 straight up, 12-14 against the spread) plays host to the Red Storm at 7:00 p.m. EST on ESPN2.
What Steve Lavin has done in resuscitating St. John’s (19-9 SU, 14-13 ATS) in his first year is nothing short of impressive. This club went 17-16 last season, and 6-12 in Big East play. The Johnnies have gone 11-5 in league play under Lavin’s guidance.
The Red Storm do not have any issues with getting a spot in the big dance. In fact, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has them nestled into a No. 4 seed. While that seeding is mostly bloated because of the league the play in, there is no doubting St. John’s deserving a spot in the NCAA tournament.
St. John’s comes into this game having won its last six games this season, covering the spread on each occasion. The Red Storm enter this contest firing on all cylinders after a 81-68 pimpslapping of Villanova as 6 ½-point road underdogs back on Feb. 26. Their first road win against a ranked team this season.
The Johnnies held a huge 37-23 rebounding advantage on the Wildcats in that game. Plus, they held ‘Nova to just 40 percent shooting from the field. Dwight Hardy played like a man possessed in this matchup with 34 points, while D.J. Kennedy scored 12 points and grabbed 14 rebounds.
Seton Hall enters this contest having lost three straight dates, covering the number just one time. The Pirates were outpaced in their last game, a 60-48 setback as 9 ½-point road pups against Notre Dame last Saturday. Jeff Robinson was their top performer against the Irish with 16 points and five boards in a losing effort.
The Pirates won last year’s meeting against St. John’s 59-50 as one-point road favorites. Of course, that was a completely different Red Storm team than the one we’ve seen during this campaign. These two teams have gone 3-3 SU and ATS over their last six head-to-head meetings. The only constant gamblers have been able to use in that stretch is the ‘under’ going 4-2.
The Johnnies have gone 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games on the road, with the ‘over’ hitting in their past two trips away from home. Seton Hall went 2-5 SU and 5-2 ATS in its home dates against Big East foes this season. The ‘under’ is 6-1 in those home games for the Pirates.
We go from the east coast to the land of hoops and racing, where Indiana (12-17 SU, 10-13 ATS) welcomes Wisconsin (22-6 SU, 14-10 ATS) in Assembly Hall at 9:00 p.m. EST on ESPN.
Things haven’t gone all that well for Tom Crean in his third year running the Hoosiers. They have gone 3-13 SU and 7-9 ATS in Big Ten play against some of the better competition college hoops as to offer this season. Indiana has crawled to this point with a six-game slide that they’ve gone 1-5 ATS.
The most recently disappointment for Indiana came in an 82-61 loss to the Buckeyes as a 17-point road pup last Sunday. The Hoosiers tried different player combinations against Ohio State, but nothing worked. They hit just 39 percent from the field with OSU shooting 49 percent. And the Bucks held a decisive 34-28 advantage on the glass. Verdell Jones III was the lone bright spot for Crean’s team, scoring 14 points with four rebounds and three assists.
The Badgers come into this game as the first team to beat Ohio State. And they paid for that win with a tough loss at Purdue just four nights later. Since losing to the Boilermakers, Wisky is 3-0 SU and ATS. The most recent matchup for the Badgers being a 78-63 win over Northwestern as an 11-point home “chalk.” Jon Leuer led all players with 26 points and six rebounds for Wisconsin. Although it can be argued that everyone on the Badgers did their part to beat Northwestern by hitting 57 percent of their shots from the field.
Wisconsin is a no-brainer for the NCAA tournament this season, but they have room for improvement. Bo Ryan’s club is currently posted as a No. 3 seed as far as Lunardi is concerned. A blowout win here can get them a lot of love from the selection committee.
The Badgers should have no issue in getting that type of win here as they’re 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Indiana. And Wisky’s average margin of victory in those games is almost 18 points per game.
As good as Ryan’s crew has been for the year overall, they’re just 2-4 SU and ATS in their six road tests in Big Ten play. The ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run in the Badgers last four league roadies.
Indiana is just 3-5 SU and ATS at home this year against conference foes to make gamblers avoid them like the plague. The ‘under’ is the only safe play in Big Ten games where the Hoosiers are the home squad, evidenced by a 6-2 mark.
vegasinsider.com
What bettors need to know: UCLA at Washington
UCLA at Washington (-8.5, 150)
THE STORY: Teams headed in different directions tip off in the final week of the regular season in Pac-10 Conference play when UCLA visits Washington on Thursday. The Bruins hammered Arizona on Saturday to move into a tie with the Wildcats for first place with just two games left to play. The Huskies, the overwhelming preseason conference favorites, were upset by rival Washington State on Sunday, dropping them two games behind the co-leaders and virtually ending their conference title hopes. While UCLA has won 12 of its last 14 games, Washington has fallen on hard times, dropping five of its last nine.
TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN2
ABOUT WASHINGTON (19-9, 10-6 Pac-10): The Huskies are suddenly on the NCAA bubble after a late-season swoon. Nationally-ranked for much of the season, Washington was never really in Sunday’s game as the Cougars capped a season-sweep of their in-state rivals 80-69. The high-scoring Huskies were limited to 17 points in the first half and shot just 34 percent for the game. Washington still holds a respectable RPI ranking of 43 but it has steadily dropped as the season has progressed. Another loss or two could mean it will have to win the conference tournament to earn an NCAA berth. The Huskies are 13-1 at home.
ABOUT UCLA (21-8, 12-4): The Bruins have to avoid a letdown after an emotional win over Arizona. UCLA not only won the game in surprisingly easy fashion, 71-49, but the Bruins closed out the old Pauley Pavilion with storybook-like ending. Tyler Trapani, the great grandson of legendary UCLA coach John Wooden and a junior walk-on for the Bruins, scored the final basket at the arena before it closes its doors for at least a year for major renovations. UCLA coach Ben Howland openly wept at the dramatics and was overjoyed how his once lightly-regarded Bruins seized the moment and got 27 points and 16 rebounds from Reeves Nelson on the way to avenging a humbling loss at Arizona a couple of weeks earlier.
WHO'S HOT/WHO’S NOT: Nelson notched his 12th double-double last game and has two straight. Washington guard C.J. Wilcox is just 2-of-14 shooting after moving into the starting lineup two games ago.
RECENT HISTORY: Washington coasted past UCLA 74-63 at Pauley Pavilion. That game seems more like ages ago rather than the two months that have actually passed.
KEY STATISTIC: Prior to losing 80-69 to Washington State on Feb. 27, the Huskies’ season low for a home game this season was 80 points. Washington had topped 100 points five times in its previous 13 home games.
LOOKING AHEAD: The Bruins wrap up the regular season at Washington State on Saturday. Washington entertains a resurgent USC team in another crucial contest.
LAST WORD: While UCLA must win both games on the road to assure itself of at least a tie for the Pac-10 regular-season title, things are much easier for Arizona, which hosts Oregon and Oregon State. Arizona is 15-0 at home this season.
TRENDS: UCLA has covered in six of its last eight games and have also played under the total in six of those contests.
Washington has is 7-1 against the spread in its last eight meetings with the Bruins.
Washington has covered in nine of its last 13 home games and have played over the total in 10 of its last 14 home tilts.
College Basketball Knowledge
South Carolina (+12) lost 73-67 at Tennessee Feb 16, shooting 10-32 on arc- they were outscored 21-9 on foul line. Vols lost five of last seven games, losing three of last four here. Carolina is 1-6 in last seven games, 2-4 as SEC road dog. SEC home underdogs of 7 or less points 13-5-3 vs spread. Tennessee C Williams is banged up, hasn't practiced this week.
St John's won/covered its last six games and they were dog in five of the six- they're 5-3 on Big East road, winning last three away games. Storm is 2-2 as Big East favorite. Seton Hall lost five of last six games; they're 5-7 as Big East underdog- they lost last two home games by a combined total of 5 points. Big East home underdogs of 5 or less points are 8-6-1.
Wake Forest (+13) got waxed 74-39 at Georgia Tech Jan 19, making just 9-26 from foul line, 26% from floor- they've lost last eight games, are 2-4 as favorite this year, all in non-ACC games. ACC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 8-12 vs spread. Tech lost last eight ACC games (0-5-1 vs spread)- they're 1-4-1 as road dog, losing by 11-25-8-2-25-22-5.
Arizona State is just 2-14 in Pac-10, but they won 60-55 (+1.5) Jan 1 in Eugene, last game at Mac Court; Ducks shot 32% for game, 4-16 on arc. Sun Devils are 1-5 vs spread in last six games, 0-3 as Pac-10 fave, losing six of seven home games. Oregon covered four of its last five road tilts. Pac-10 home favorites of 4 or less points are 6-9 against the spread.
Arizona (-8) lost 76-75 at Oregon State Jan 1, making just 13-24 at foul line; Wildcats did shoot 56% from floor. OSU is 1-6 as Pac-10 road dog, losing away games by 14-31-28-14-11-8-19 poits- they lost eight of last 10 overall. Arizona lost twice in LA last week; they're 3-4 as home fave. Double digit home favorites are 6-9-1 vs spread in Pac-10 play.
Cal-Davis (-1) lost 87-81 at Northridge Dec 30; both teams shot 50%+ from floor. Aggies lost last six games (1-3 vs spread in last four); they're 2-4 at home in Big West, beating Riverside/Irvine. Matadors are 3-3 on Big West road, losing by 14-3-23 points- they're 4-2-1 as an underdog. Big West home favorites of less than 6 points are 10-12-1 vs spread.
Pacific (-5.5) lost 54-51 at Fullerton Dec 30, Tigers were just 8-28 from arc- Titans had only 3 turnovers. Pacific is 3-3 as home favorite, winning home games by 3-17-4-24 points (lost to top two teams). Fullerton lost last four games (0-4 vs spread); they're 2-4 as road dog, losing its away games by 7-4-24-15-15. Big West home favorites of 9+ points are 5-13.
San Jose (+5) lost 67-61 at Hawai'i Jan 23, shooting 31%; Spartans won four of last six games after starting 1-7 in WAC. Warriors won eight of last ten games, are 3-3 as WAC road dog, losing away games by 8-17-18-14 points. WAC home favorites of 4 or less points are 11-5 vs spread. Hawai'i is 2-4 on road, losing away games by 8-17-18-14 points.
Washington State (+3.5) lost 60-56 at USC Dec 31, shooting 37% from floor; Coogs covered once in last six games as favorite- they won five of seven Pac-10 home games, with four of five wins by 7+ points. Pac-10 home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-12 vs spread. Trojans won last four games, allowing 52 ppg in last three- they're 2-2 as an underdog.
Washington (-4) won 74-63 at UCLA Dec 31, despite being outscored 25-12 on foul line, but Huskies are 3-5 in last eight games, allowing 76+ points in five of last six- they're 3-4 as home favorite. UCLA won seven of last eight games, with only loss in OT- they're 0-3 as an underdog in league play. Pac-10 home favorites are 24-28-1 vs spread this season.
Indiana lost its last six games (1-5 vs spread); Hoosiers (+13) lost 69-60 at Wisconsin Jan 20- they led by 4 at half. Indiana is 6-5 as dog, 2-2 at home, losing home games by 9-18-1-6-11 points. Wisconsin won seven of last eight games; they're 8-5 as Big 11 favorite, 1-3 on road, winning road games by 32-1-3 points. Big 11 home underdogs of 7 or less points are 10-8 against the spread.
Missouri Valley tournament (St Louis)
Home team won both Southern Illinois-Illinois State games this year by 4 points; State lost six of last seven games, Salukis lost nine of last ten. Southern is 0-3 in this event last three years, losing by 5-12-2 points, scoring only 55 ppg. Redbirds are 5-3 in this event last three years, with first-round wins by 5-10-4 points. State's last three wins overall are by a total of four points.
Home side won both Bradley-Drake games this year, with Drake losing 90-64 in Peoria five days ago, after winning by 6 in January. Drake lost three of last four games- they're 1-8 in MVC road games, winning only at So Illinois. Bradley is 5-3 in last eight games after starting Valley play 0-11- they've also lost eight of their nine MVC road games.
Thursday's Totals to Watch
By Bruce Marshall
Here’s a quick look at several current "totals" trends to watch in Thursday night’s college hoops card...
St. John’s at Seton Hall... Note that the host Pirates are one of many Big East teams trending "under" lately (the Hall is "under" 6-1 its last 7).
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest... Only hardcore fans will be interested in this one; we probably don’t have to remind them that lowly Wake is also "under" in 4 of its last 5 outings.
Oregon at Arizona State... Conflicting recent trends for this Pac-10 battle at Temple, with the visiting Ducks "over" in three straight, while the excruciating, tortuous Sun Devils are "under" 4 of their last 5 games.
Nevada at La Tech... Both of these WAC teams trending "under" lately, with the Wolf Pack "under" in four straight, and the host Bulldogs even more pronounced with a 12-4-1 "under" mark in their last 17 games.
Oregon State at Arizona State... Nothing too definitive either way save for three straight "overs" by Craig Robinson’s Beavers.
Fresno State at Idaho... "Unders" going both ways the past few weeks (Fresno 4-0 last 4, Idaho 4-1 last 5).
CS Northridge at UC Davis... Conflicting trends, with Bobby Braswell’s Matadors "under" in five straight, and Gary Stewart’s host Aggies "over" their last six and 8-1-1 their last 10.
CS Fullerton at Pacific... Both of these Big West entries are trending "over" lately (Bob Burton’s Fullerton its last 3, and Bob Thomason’s Pacific 8 of its last 11).
Hawaii at San Jose State... The visiting Warriors are "over" four of their last five outings; after going "over" in six straight, the host Spartans are now "under" in their last three games.
Southern Cal at Washington State... The Trojans have been trending "under" all season; their latest streak in 6-1 "under" their last seven outings. Host Wazzu, however, is "over" 4 of its last 5.
UCLA at Washington... More conflicting trends, with Bruins "under" 6 of their last 8 and Huskies "over" 9 of their last 14.
Illinois State vs. Southern Illinois (MVC Tourney at St. Louis)... Note the Redbirds’ 7-3 "under" mark in their last 10 games.
Drake vs. Bradley (MVC Tourney at St. Louis)...Please note the Bulldogs are "over" in three straight and seven of their last 10.