Dayton (19-9, 13-12 ATS) at Richmond (22-7, 16-9 ATS)
Richmond tries to bounce back from its first loss in more than a month when it welcomes the Flyers to the Robins Center for an Atlantic 10 clash.
Dayton snapped a two-game slide in emphatic fashion Saturday, hammering UMass 96-68 as a 15-point home favorite, its most lopsided victory of the season. The Flyers, who also halted a four-game ATS drought by crushing UMass, have split their last 16 games, all within the A-10. However, they’re 1-5 on the road during this stretch (2-4 ATS), including 0-3 SU and ATS in the last three.
The Spiders took an eight-game winning streak (7-1 ATS) to Xavier on Sunday and suffered a heartbreaking 78-76 double-overtime defeat, but they easily covered as a 7½-point road underdog. Richmond has won 13 of 14 home games (6-5 ATS), and since a 12-point home loss to Charlotte on Jan. 20, the Spiders have won four in a row at home (3-1 ATS) by an average of 18.8 ppg. For the season, they outscore visitors by 14.5 ppg (72.6-58.1).
Richmond crushed Dayton 83-63 as a 4½-point home underdog last year, but the Flyers got revenge twice thereafter with a 69-63 home victory as a 9½-point favorite and a 69-64 win as a 4½-point chalk in the Atlantic-10 tournament. The home team has won each of the last seven regular-season clashes (4-3 ATS). The underdog has gotten the money eight times in the last 10 meetings.
In addition to failing to cover in four of its last five overall and four of its last five on the road, Dayton is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Spiders have come up short in five of their last seven on Thursday, but otherwise they’re on ATS hot streaks of 8-1 overall (all in conference), 23-7-1 after a SU loss, 6-1 following a spread-cover and 5-1 against winning teams.
These teams have topped the total in each of their last five series meetings, and the over is 4-0 in Richmond’s last four against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: RICHMOND and OVER
USC (16-12, 11-14-2 ATS) at Arizona State (20-9, 11-14 ATS)
Arizona State hopes to bolster its sagging Big Dance resume when it welcomes the slumping Trojans to Wells Fargo Arena in Tempe, Ariz., as the final weekend of Pac-10 regular-season play tips off.
USC has dropped three in a row SU and ATS, and the offense is to blame, as the Trojans managed just 47, 44 and 44 points in the three defeats. Last weekend, they hosted Oregon and Oregon State and lost both games as a huge favorite, falling 55-44 to the Ducks as a 10½-point chalk and 49-44 to the Beavers as an eight-point choice. The three-game slide follows a four-game winning streak for USC, which is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine outings.
The Trojans conclude their season tonight and Saturday at Arizona, as they’re ineligible for postseason play – including the Pac-10 tournament – because of school-imposed sanctions.
The Sun Devils’ four-game winning streak ended with Saturday’s ugly 62-46 loss at Cal, falling way short as a seven-point road underdog. Arizona State actually took a 30-29 halftime lead then got outscored 33-16 in the final 20 minutes. The Sun Devils have still won six of their last eight overall and they’re 14-3 at Wells Fargo Arena this season, averaging 70.3 ppg and allowing 54.8 on their home floor. Despite that, they’re just 5-8 ATS in lined home games (1-4 ATS last five), and they’ve failed to cover in six of their last 10 overall.
USC crushed the Sun Devils 47-37 as a 2½-point home favorite back on Jan. 2 in the second conference game for both squads. The Trojans are 4-1 SU in the last five series meetings and 3-1 ATS in the last four. The home team has taken the last seven regular-season battles (6-1 ATS), but the underdog has covered in 12 of the last 16.
The Trojans’ 1-5 ATS slump overall is offset by positive pointspread runs of 39-18-1 after a non-cover and 8-3 versus winning teams. Meanwhile, Arizona State has cashed in 18 of its last 26 after a non-cover, but is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games after three or more consecutive road contests.
The low-scoring Trojans are on “under” runs of 18-7-1 overall, 6-0-1 on the road, 12-3-1 in Pac-10 action, 4-0 on Thursday, 4-0 after a SU defeat, 5-1 after a non-cover and 4-1 against winning teams. Similarly, ASU carries “under” trends of 5-1 overall (all in conference), 11-3 at home and 4-1 against winning teams. Finally, four of the last five meetings between these rivals have stayed low, though the over is 5-2 in the last seven clashes in Tempe.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NCAAB News and Notes
Thursday, March 4
Information on the best of Thursday's college basketball games.
Seton Hall (-11) beat Rutgers 76-70 nine days ago, turning ball over just six times (+10); Pirates are 1-6 on Big East road, with only win by 9 at St John's- they failed to cover last six games as a favorite. Rutgers is 7-1 vs spread in last eight games, winning four of last five at home SU. Big East home underdogs of 4 or less points are 7-11 vs spread.
Richmond won eight of last nine games, losing in double OT at Xavier in last game; Spiders are 3-4 as A-14 home favorite, winning home games by 7-4-26-17-28-4 points. Dayton is 1-5 in last six road games, losing its last three by 3-2-8 points; they're 2-3 as an underdog this year. Atlantic 14 home favorites of 3 or less points are 3-8 against the spread.
Arizona (+6) won 73-66 at UCLA Jan 2, but they lost last two at home, and lost five of last seven games overall; Wildcats are 2-2 as home fave, winning home games by 17-8-4-13 points (4-3 SU). Bruins are 4-3 as a road underdog, losing away games by 11-5-4-29 points. Pac-10 home favorites of 5-10 points are 8-16 against the spread this year.
Arizona State shot 24.4% from floor in awful 47-37 loss at USC on Jan 2 (+1.5); ASU won six of last eight games, is 3-4 as home favorite, with home wins by 17-25-18-10-10 points. Trojans scored 47-44-44 points in losing last three games; they're 3-1-1 as road dog, losing away games by 1-8-6-10-4. Pac-10 home favorites of 7+ points are 10-19 vs spread.
Oregon State (+7.5) lost 65-60 in Pullman Jan 2; Beavers shot just 37% for game, 7-24 from arc- they're 1-3 as Pac-10 home favorite, winning at home by 3-6-20-16 points (4-3 SU). Cougars are 2-7 in last nine games, 3-4 as Pac-10 road dog, losing away games by 25-12-28-2-16 pts. Home favorites of 3 or less points are 8-5 vs spread in Pac-10 games.
Nevada (-3.5) shot 53% from floor, 9-20 from arc in 77-67 win Jan 4 at New Mexico State, Aggies' only WAC home loss. Wolf Pack is 1-5 as a WAC home favorite, winning in Reno by 29-8-6-8-4 points. State won 11 of 13 since Nevada loss; they're 7-4-1 vs spread in last 12 games as a dog. WAC home favorites of 6.5 or less points are 14-11 vs spread.
Fresno State lost its last two games 72-45/76-39, outscored 72-30 in the first half of those games; they lost 81-73 at Louisiana Tech Jan 14 (+10) in game where Tech made 11-23 from arc. State is 5-2 at home in WAC. Tech lost three of last four WAC road games; they're 5-5 in last 10 tilts overall. Interesting to see how Fresno plays after tank jobs last week.
Northridge lost five of last six games; they're 2-4 as Big West favorite at home, winning home games by 14-7-5 points. Matadors (-1.5) lost at Cal-Davis 85-73 Jan 4, turning ball over 21 times while Davis hit 11-23 from arc. Aggies are 2-4 as road dog, losing away games by 21-3-16-22-2 points. Big West home favorites of 5 or less points are 7-10 vs spread.
Idaho (+2.5) lost 78-75 at San Jose Jan 4, in game where both sides made 50%+ from floor; Vandals lost four of last five games overall, are 1-3 as WAC home favorite, 1-5 SU at home, with 74-59 win over Fresno only WAC home win. Spartans lost five of last seven games. WAC home favorites of 5.5 or less points are 11-9 against the pointspread.
Final weekend at historic Mac Court for Oregon (2-5 at home in Pac-10 games, losing by 7-19-14-7-15 points) squad that is 6-5 as Pac-10 dog, 1-1 at home- they beat Washington 90-79 in Seattle (+11) Jan 2, making 53% of shots with only 8 turnovers. Huskies won six of last eight tilts. Pac-10 home underdogs of 5.5 or less points are 6-9 vs spread.
Pacific (-7) shot 54% from floor, 10-20 from arc in 80-73 home win over Fullerton Jan 21; Tigers are 3-4 in last seven games, but 4-2 as Big West road favorite, winning away games by 10-11-15-22 points. Fullerton is 6-2 in last eight home games; they're 5-1-1 vs spread as an underdog in Big West games. home underdogs of 3 or less points are 7-1 vs spread.
Missouri Valley tournament
Drake beat Southern Illinois twice this year, 70-65 (+12) on road, 79-72 (-1.5) at home, despite not leading at half in either game. Both teams lost five of last six games; Drake scored 56 ppg in last two, Salukis allowed 79.3 ppg in last three. MVC underdogs of 4 or less points are 18-12 vs spread in '10. Salukis lost in first round of this event the last two years.
Evansville lost twice to Missouri State, 74-60 at home (+2.5), 76-66 in Springfield (-14), but Purple Aces split last six games, after 0-13 start in MVC play. Evansville lost first game in this event last three years, by 5-23-10 points; Bears are 10-2 in first tourney game last 12 years- they're 3-1-1 vs spread in last five as a favorite, but lost eight in row on road.