NIT Finals, UNC-Dayton
By Brian Edwards
A year ago, Roy Williams’ UNC Tar Heels were getting ready to win a national championship. On Thursday night, they’ll be gunning for another title, albeit one of the second-string variety.
Dayton and UNC had expectations of going to the NCAA Tournament, but those hopes didn’t materialize. Instead, both schools settled for NIT bids that have proved to be a nice springboard into next season.
The Flyers and Tar Heels square off Thursday night at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened this game as a pick ‘em, but most books had Dayton (24-12 straight up, 17-15-1 against the spread) listed as a three-point favorite as of Wednesday night. The total was 136 ½ at most spots, while UNC was plus-135 on the money line (risk $100 to win $130).
North Carolina (20-16 SU, 13-21 ATS) advanced to the NIT finals with Wednesday’s 68-67 win over Rhode Island in overtime. The Tar Heels won outright as one-point underdogs, while the 135 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 152 ½-point total despite the extra session.
Senior power forward Deon Thompson recorded his second straight double-double, scoring 16 points and pulling down 13 rebounds against the Rams. William Graves added 14 points and seven boards, while Tyler Zeller came off the bench to produced 12 points, four rebounds and a pair of blocked shots in just 20 minutes of playing time.
Brian Gregory’s team came up short in its quest for a third consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament, but the Flyers have been making up for it in the NIT. They have gone on the road and won – somewhat comfortably – at Cincinnati and at Illinois.
In the semifinals, Dayton sent Ole Miss home with a 68-63 win as a one-point favorite. The 131 combined points settled ‘under’ the 142-point tally.
Chris Johnson was the catalyst against the Rebels, tallying 22 points, 10 rebounds and four steals. Chris Wright struggled to a 1-for-10 effort from the field, but his floor game was exemplary. Wright finished with nine points, 11 boards, five assists, three blocked shots, two steals and only one turnover.
Dayton’s defense was instrumental against Ole Miss. The Flyers, who have now covered the number in four consecutive contests, held the Rebels to a 34-percent shooting night, forcing the combination of Terrico White (6-17) and Chris Warren (5-14) to shoot a combined 11-of-31 from the field.
Dayton is 8-5 ATS in 13 previous games as a single-digit favorite. Meanwhile, North Carolina has won outright in three straight games as an underdog. However, for the season, the Tar Heels are an abysmal 4-11 SU and 5-10 ATS as ‘dogs.
The ‘under’ is on an incredible 20-7 run for UNC in its last 27 games. The Tar Heels have only had totals in the 130s three times this year, with the ‘over’ actually cashing at a 2-1 clip in those three situations.
The ‘under’ is 17-14 overall for Dayton, but the ‘over’ is 5-2 in their last seven outings.
ESPN will provide television coverage at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Kentucky’s Daniel Orton is testing the NBA Draft waters but won’t hire an agent, leaving open the possibility of returning to UK for his sophomore season. Orton had a hard time getting extended minutes in 2009-2010, playing behind DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson.
Austin Rivers, the son of Doc who is a high-school phenom in the Orlando area, verbally committed to Florida more than a year ago as part of the 2011 class. For the last several months, there has been wide speculation that Duke is very much in the mix for Rivers’ services. And now, a recent Orlando Sentinel report indicates that North Carolina is also heavily courting Rivers. Of course, verbal commitments like Rivers can change their mind at any point.
Mississippi St. center Renardo Sidney, who was ineligible throughout his freshman campaign, saw his appeal to the NCAA denied. The NCAA recently ruled that Sidney must also sit out the first nine games of the 2010-2011 season.
LSU head coach Trent Johnson has suspended Bo Spencer from the team indefinitely. Johnson said the suspension was due to a “lack of fulfillment in responsibility to his academics.” If Spencer gets back in Johnson good graces and is allowed to return to the team, he will be the squad’s only senior in 2010-2011. Spencer averaged 14.5 points per game this past season.
vegasinsider.com
Game Of The Day: North Carolina at Dayton
By BILL CLOUTIER
North Carolina (20-16) is trying to become the first team to win the NIT title a year after win the NCAA championship. They’re not jumping up and down for joy, however.
“Let’s be honest,” UNC coach Roy Williams said, “this was not where we wanted to be. Everybody wanted to be in the NCAA tournament.”
Dayton (24-12) is looking for its third NIT title and first since 1968.
Lucky to be here
The Tar Heels defeated Rhode Island 68-67 in overtime to reach the final. After a UNC miss with six seconds to play, URI’s Lamonte Ulmer picked up the loose ball and set off for the Rhody basket trying to get off a buzzer beater.
But Ulmer was inadvertently tripped by UNC’s Will Graves and lost the ball.
“I don’t know what happened, but something should have been called there at the end,” UNC coach Roy Williams said. “I feel badly the game ended that way.”
URI’s Marquis Jones said: “We know we’re not going to get that call.”
Rhode Island had only itself to blame, however, as the Rams could have put the game away in regulation but missed four straight free throws down the stretch.
Common threads
Like UNC, the Flyers hoped to be playing in the NCAA this year. Dayton was picked first in the A-10 preseason poll and ranked 21st in the nation’s preseason poll. But it fell apart down the stretch and finished seventh in a deep and talented conference.
While UNC had a great deal of trouble with URI on Tuesday, Dayton lost to the Rams as a 4.5 favorite at home earlier this year.
And while UNC outrebounded URI 60-45, Dayton lost the battle on the boards to its conference foe 30-27.
Home away from home
Dayton is playing in its 22nd NIT, second only to St. John's (27), and the Flyers are 39-24 at Madison Square Garden, giving them more wins at the arena than any other school outside the New York metropolitan area.
Hottest team in the country?
Before his Mississippi team played against Dayton, Ole Miss coach Andy Kennedy said that the Flyers were the team to beat.
“They are playing some of the best basketball — maybe the best — of any team left playing in the country right now,” Kennedy said. He was talking about the NCAA Tournament, as well as the NIT.
“They play extremely hard, they play selfless and they have a lot of interchangeable parts. I think they have a terrific team.”
Chris Johnson has been the biggest reason the Flyers have turned things around. Johnson scored a game-high 22 points in the NIT semifinal in 32 minutes of action. He was scoreless in just 11 minutes in the Flyers’ A-10 tourney loss at Xavier.
Last meeting
These two teams haven’t met since 2006 when UNC posted an 81-51 decision. Those Tar Heels featured the likes of Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson.
North Carolina has been an underdog in each of its past three NIT games and won all of those contests outright. The Tar Heels failed to cover the number as 9-point favorites in their NIT opener against William & Mary.
UNC is without leading rebounder Ed Davis, who suffered a season-ending wrist injury back in February.
Trend-setting
North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a victory and its last five games against Atlantic 10 teams.
UNC is 46-19 ATS in its last 65 non-conference games.
The under is 14-3 in UNC’s last 17 non-conference games.
The under is 8-2 in Dayton’s last 10 non-conference games.
Dayton has covered the spread in its last eight non-conference games.
North Carolina (20-16, 13-21 ATS) vs. Dayton (24-12, 17-15-1 ATS)
The Tar Heels will try to become the first team in history to follow up a national championship with an NIT title when they battle Dayton in this winner-take-all contest at Madison Square Garden.
North Carolina survived a fourth straight NIT thriller in Tuesday’s semifinals, outlasting Rhode Island 69-68 in overtime as a one-point underdog. Deon Thompson recorded a double-double with 16 points and 13 rebounds, while Will Graves (14 points) and Tyler Zeller (13 points) also scored in double figures for Carolina. The Heels had a 60-45 rebounding edge, but were sloppy with the basketball, committing 18 turnovers, the final one occurring in the waning seconds while clinging to a one-point lead.
Dayton reached the NIT championship game for the first time since in 42 years by holding off Ole Miss 68-63 as a one-point favorite Tuesday. Chris Johnson drained five critical free throws down the stretch and finished with a game-high 22 points, but both teams struggled to put the ball in the net all night (both shot 33.9 percent). However, the Flyers had a 43-34 rebounding advantage and made nine more free throws.
After going just 5-12 in the ACC season – winning consecutive games just once – the Tar Heels have now won four in a row (4-0 ATS) for the first time since starting the season 4-0. All four of North Carolina’s NIT victories have been close, as it preceded Tuesday’s triumph over Rhode Island with an eight-point win over William & Mary, a two-point road victory at Mississippi State and a five-point road win at UAB.
The Flyers were the preseason pick to win the Atlantic 10 title, but they stumbled down the stretch of the conference season, losing six of their final nine games (1-7-1 ATS). However, they’ve taken advantage of a second season in the NIT, posting four impressive victories by an average of 11.5 points per game, also knocking off Illinois State (63-42 at home), Cincinnati (81-66 on the road) and Illinois (77-71 on the road). Dayton has cashed in all four NIT wins.
These teams last met on New Year’s Eve 2006 in North Carolina, and the Tar Heels rolled 81-51, cashing as a 22-point favorite.
Despite the consecutive wins over Cincinnati, Illinois and Ole Miss, Dayton is still just 8-10 away from home this year (8-9-1 ATS), including 3-3 in neutral-site games (2-4 ATS). Meanwhile, the Tar Heels are 6-11 outside of Chapel Hill, N.C. (7-10 ATS), including 2-3 SU and ATS at neutral venues. However, they’re 2-1 SU and ATS at Madison Square Garden this year.
North Carolina is on its first 3-0 ATS streak of the season, and the Heels are on additional pointspread surges of 46-19 in non-conference play, 4-1 against Atlantic 10 foes and 8-3 at neutral sites. However, they’re also on ATS nosedives of 8-16 overall, 4-10 as an underdog, 2-8 as a pup of less than seven points and 4-8 after a SU win.
The Flyers have now cashed in four straight games overall and eight consecutive non-conference contests, and they’re 5-1-1 ATS in their last six after a spread-cover and 4-0 ATS in their last four against winning teams. However, they’ve failed to cover in four of five at neutral sites and they’re 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 on Thursday.
Both of Tuesday’s semifinal contests stayed under the total. Also, the Tar Heels are on “under” runs of 20-7 overall, 4-0 against the Atlantic 10, 5-1 as an underdog, 6-1 as a pup of less than seven points, 6-2 as a neutral-site pup, 7-1 after a SU win and 14-3 after a spread-cover, while Dayton has stayed low in eight of 10 non-conference contests. However, the Flyers remain on over runs of 5-2 overall and 5-2 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Dayton picked to fly home as NIT champions
By Doug Upstone
At this point in time, not sure a college hoops team has a better nickname than the University of Dayton. The Flyers are flying by opposing teams in their four games in the NIT. For this reason, they are favored to be the best of the field when they take on North Carolina in Madison Square Garden for the title.
Dayton (24-12, 17-15 ATS) is a difficult opponent on many levels, they press on defense the entire game to force physical turnovers while anticipating the mental aspect of their performance will also cause teams to falter. Coach Brian Gregory has a veteran cast that he substitutes liberally, as much as 50 times a game. Every player has been taught to get the ball and go on any rebound or made basketball by the opposition and Dayton players fly down the court looking for easy buckets and slam opportunities. It's not hard to figure why they are 11-4 ATS in non-conference games this season.
So how did Flyers lose a dozen games? The answer was in the semifinal win over Mississippi. Dayton held a few double digit leads, however their frantic style led to Rebels runs, as they took wild off-balance shots or just threw the ball away playing out of control. A patient offensive team can breakdown individual defenders since Dayton players seem almost bored having to guard a player more than 20 seconds. This would explain 4-13 ATS record away from home when they commit 14 to 18 turnovers in a game.
North Carolina (20-16, 13-20 ATS) was hoping to be playing in a different championship, but this one will do after the kind of year the Tar Heels have had. The story all year for Roy Williams' team has been turnovers and no question point guard play has been part of the issue. Larry Drew has taken heated criticism and much deservedly so, yet upon closer inspection, he's not the only player to blame.
Drew could do a better job in judgment terms, sometimes throwing errant passes or delivering the ball almost carelessly at his teammates feet, however enough of those in Carolina blue do mediocre work in using their bodies to receive passes, letting defenders work a side to slap the ball away or start into a move without catching the rock first. The last two examples occurred at least a half a dozen times in overtime win over Rhode Island, which was better than a third of the Tar Heels 17 miscues. It's no wonder North Carolina is 3-10 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points game this season.
Dayton is a three-point favorite at BetUS.com with total of 136.5. The Flyers pressure defense would appear to be a conundrum for North Carolina the way they handle the ball so loosely and the Flyers have sped to eight non-A-10 covers in a row. Dayton's previous contest fell below stated total and they are 19-5 OVER after one or more Under's over the last two seasons.
North Carolina doesn't act all that thrilled about being in New York for this game, at least from the quote from coach Williams - "We put ourselves in this position because we didn't play as well as we needed to play, but then we accepted that and we tried to do the best we possibly could."
Though the season has not been up to typical Tar Heels standards, you cannot ignore the pedigree and they are 8-1 ATS in a postseason tournament games over the last two years and 11-3 ATS after covering three of their last four against the spread. UNC is 15-4 UNDER playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
The NIT championship has a 7:00 Eastern start time, with Dayton going after third title (1962-68) and North Carolina its first since 1971.
Tips and Trends
Dayton Flyers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Flyers (-3, O/U 136): To say that Dayton deserves to play for the NIT Championship tonight would be an understatement. The Flyers have won 3 consecutive games away from home, all against top 75 teams in the country. Dayton beat Mississippi 68-63 to advance to the Championship game tonight. Dayton is looking to win the NIT for the 3rd time in school history, and for the 1st time since 1968. The Flyers love to get out in the open and run a fast paced tempo, which should be accommodate by North Carolina tonight. Dayton is 24-12 SU and 17-15-1 ATS overall this season. The Flyers are 8-10 SU and 8-9-1 ATS away from home this season, including 3-3 SU in neutral court settings. Dayton is 8-5 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. Dayton has excelled in non-conference games this season, going 11-4 ATS in this situation. F Chris Wright leads 2 different Flyers averaging double figures in PTS this season. Wright averages team highs of 13.7 PPG and 7.2 RPG this season. Wright has scored in double figures in 18 of his past 22 games, as well as 6 double doubles this season alone.
Dayton is 8-0 ATS last 8 non-conference games.
Under is 8-2 last 10 non-conference games.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 73 (Side of the Day)
Tar Heels: In an amazing turn of events, North Carolina has won 20 games SU this season for the 6th consecutive season. A strong surge in the NIT Tournament has enabled them to continue that streak into next season. With their 68-67 win over Rhode Island, North Carolina tied a season high 4 consecutive wins SU. The Tar Heels also won 3 consecutive games ATS for the 1st time this season. The Tar Heels are 20-16 SU and 13-21 ATS overall this season. North Carolina is 6-11 SU and 7-10 ATS away from home this season, including 2-3 SU in neutral court games. The Tar Heels are 5-9 ATS as the listed underdog this season. North Carolina has excelled this season ATS in tournament games, going 5-3 ATS in tournament contests. The Tar Heels struggle against good defensive teams, as they are 3-10 ATS against teams that allow 64 PPG or fewer this year. F Deon Thompson has stared all 36 games for the Tar Heels this season, and is averaging 13.7 PPG and 6.6 RPG this season. F Tyler Zeller has played well of late, and is averaging 9.3 PPG and 4.8 RPG overall this season.
North Carolina is 8-3 ATS last 11 neutral site games.
Under is 7-1 last 8 games following a SU win.
Key Injuries - F Ed Davis (wrist) is out.
F David Wear (hip) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 64
NCAAB News and Notes
Dayton beat Ole Miss by 5 in NIT semis despite shooting 33.3% from floor; question is, can they keep a bigger North Carolina (23 offensive boards vs URI) team off boards if they force missed shots? Flyers beat Georgia Tech 63-59 (even) on neutral floor in only game this season vs an ACC opponent. Tar Heels just beat one team from A-14, but needed OT to beat Rhode Island Tuesday- their last three wins are all on road, by combined total of eight points.