NIT Final Preview
By Brian Edwards
March in college basketball is all about having a clean slate. With the possible exceptions of USC and Cleveland St., no program in America has taken better advantage of its fresh start in March than Baylor.
You see, the Bears finished the regular season with a mediocre 17-13 overall record and a 5-11 mark in Big 12 play. Along with Georgetown, Notre Dame and Kentucky, they were among the most disappointing squads in the country. Since then, however, Scott Drew’s team has been absolutely on fire.
Baylor’s hot play didn’t subside on Tuesday night at Madison Square Garden in New York City, either. And the Bears’ group of seniors, who couldn’t even play non-conference games as freshmen due to lingering NCAA sanctions, posted their school-record 64th win and lived to play another day. They’ll take on Penn St. in the NIT finals Thursday night.
Baylor (24- 14 straight up, 13-17 against the spread) cruised to a 76-62 win over San Diego St. in the semifinals thanks to senior Curtis Jerrells, who made 8-of-11 shots and finished with at team-high 25 points and seven assists. LaceDarius Dunn, a sophomore from out of Monroe, LA., had 23 points and seven rebounds.
With Baylor advancing to face the Notre Dame-Penn St. winner, the Nittany Lions went about taking care of their business. They jumped all over the Irish early, leading by a 31-18 count at intermission en route to capturing a 67-59 win as four-point underdogs. PSU hooked up money-line backers with a plus-170 payout (paid $170 on $100 wagers).
Talor Battle paced the winners with 17 points, five rebounds and five assists. Andrew Jones III produced career highs of 16 points and 15 rebounds, while Jamelle Cornley added 15 points and eight boards. When Notre Dame trimmed its deficit to 51-47 with more than four minutes left, it was Cornley who scored two of PSU’s next three buckets to put the Irish away.
Penn St. (26-11 SU, 17-12-1 ATS) has won four in a row in the NIT, covering the number in its last three games. The Nittany Lions opened the tournament by beating George Mason 77-73 in overtime, but they failed to take the cash as 5 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ Battle was the catalyst with 24 points, six assists and five rebounds.
PSU thumped Rhode Island 83-72 as a one-point home favorite in the second round. Next, the Lions went to Gainesville and emerged with a 71-62 triumph at Florida as 10 ½-point underdogs. Gamblers backing PSU on the money line earned a monster return in the plus-400 range. Cornley dominated UF with 23 points and 12 rebounds.
Let’s get back to Baylor, which might have been on the NIT bubble and destined for the CBI Tourney before making big-time noise at the Big 12 Tournament. In the span of three days, the Bears beat Nebraska (65-49 as one-point ‘dogs), Kansas (71-64 as eight point ‘dogs) and Texas (76-70 as 4 ½-point ‘dogs) to give themselves a chance to make the NCAA Tournament by earning the league’s automatic bid.
But Missouri, which eventually advanced to the Elite Eight, took out a gassed Baylor team 73-60 as a 6 ½-point ‘chalk.’ After playing four games in four days, I questioned whether or not the Bears would have anything left in the tank for a first-round NIT showdown against Georgetown in Waco.
Therefore, I backed the Hoyas on the money line for a chance to pick up a plus-135 return. Things looked good for me at halftime when Georgetown led 44-34. But Baylor wouldn’t fold and in the last home game for this group of seniors, it rallied to collect a 74-72 win. Obviously, my money-line play went bad and was even more painful in that the Bears failed to cover the spread as three-point favorites. Dunn and Kevin Rogers scored 20 points apiece, while Jerrells finished with 19 points, six assists, five steals, three rebounds and three blocked shots. Tweety Carter chipped in with 10 points and nine assists.
On the road to the Big Apple, Baylor ventured to Blacksburg for a second-round game against Va. Tech. The Bears turned heads by pounding the Hokies 84-66 as 4 ½-point road underdogs. Finally, they sealed their trip to Gotham by winning a 74-72 decision at Auburn as three-point road ‘dogs.
The ‘under’ is 17-12-1 overall for Baylor, 12-4-1 in its last 17 outings. Meanwhile, Penn St. has watched the ‘under’ go 16-13-1 overall.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Baylor as a three-point favorite with a total of 136. As of early Wednesday afternoon, most books had the Bears at four with the total in the 138-139 range. This morning I took a guess at what numbers we’d see and I suggested Baylor minus three with the total in the 132-135 range.
ESPN will provide television coverage Thursday night at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--This Penn St. team has set a single-season school record for wins with 26.
--Bill Raftery’s work for both ESPN and CBS the last few weeks has been nothing short of sensational. And I’m loving Clark Kellogg in place of Billy Packer on CBS’ No. 1 team, but Raftery is easily my favorite right now.
--I’m quickly losing respect for Georgia AD Damon Evans. He fired his coach in January so he’s had two months and change to find his next head coach. As we have been predicting for weeks, UGA struck out publicly with Missouri’s Mike Anderson yesterday even though it offered at least $500,000 per year more than the Tigers. As we’ve also been predicting for weeks, the Dawgs will (or already have) strike on Oklahoma Jeff Capel sometime today. Making matters worse, UGA spent $75,000 to hire a search firm to help conduct this coaching search. Don’t AD’s get paid a salary to hire coaches themselves? 75K? What a waist! We’ve also been predicting that the Dawgs would eventually get to their third option – Miami’s Frank Haith – and he might bite. That’s because UGA will give him a nice raise and Haith is still steamed about having to take his team on the road in the NIT when it would have otherwise been able to play home games in first two rounds. The home venue was already rented out and the university either couldn’t (or wouldn’t) get out of the arrangement. If Haith says no, does Bobby Knight become a part of the picture? I doubt it but I will say that Knight has forgotten more about basketball that the combination of Capel, Anderson and Haith will ever know.
--As a Florida alum and fan, I’m a little twisted by Nick Calathes’ decision to test the NBA waters. Now I know his plan is not to sign with an agent, so I full anticipate him returning to school and perhaps all the workouts will help his game and make him a better player in his junior season. On the flip side, I’m thinking Calathes might have “Matt Walsh Syndrome.” Perhaps you remember Walsh, who was a three-year starter for the Gators and had by all standards an excellent career that might have been great if he returned for his senior campaign. Instead, Walsh inexplicably opted to skip his senior year when he clearly was lacking the muscle to be any sort of factor at the NBA level. (And, to be clear, Walsh came from a wealthy family with a doctor for a Dad, so future earnings weren’t a factor.) He wasn’t drafted but eventually hooked up with the Heat, who cut him in November after he played a handful of games in mop-up duty. Since then, Walsh has been relegated to playing overseas and it’s extremely doubtful he’ll ever touch an NBA court again. So, what did he miss out on? Well, the Gators won the national championship in what would’ve been his senior year. Back to Calathes, who has had two solid seasons but has played poorly down the stretch both years, as UF fell out of the NCAA picture and into the NIT. Translation: Calathes hasn’t accomplished anything at the collegiate level, certainly not by recent UF standards. So if he’s even considering leaving, I’m tempted to just say “good riddance, scram and beat it because you’ve shown zero propensity to make plays at crunch time of the games that really matter.” We’ll see what happens…
vegasinsider.com
Baylor vs. Penn St.
By Matt Fargo
Baylor Bears vs. Penn St. Nittany Lions Thursday, April 2, 2009 7:00 PM ET
The Betting Numbers
This game opened at LVSC with Baylor -3 and the total set at 136. It would not be surprising to see this line come down as Penn St. is once again likely to have the majority of fan support at the Garden. Surprisingly, Baylor is favored by more points in the championship game than it was favored by in the semifinal game while Penn St. is getting fewer points this time around which does in fact make sense.
Series History
This will be just the second ever meeting between Baylor and Penn St. The Bears won the first meeting 72-70 back in 1990 at the Dr. Pepper Invitational.
The Teams
Baylor was pretty much left for dead toward the end of the regular season as it was supposed to make some noise in the Big XII Conference but limped in with a 5-11 record and a number nine seed in the conference tournament. The Bears used that as motivation as they decided to start over and nearly pulled off the impossible before losing to Missouri, an eventual Elite Eight team, in the championship game. That run got Baylor into the NIT and this group of experienced players had one goal in mind and that was to simply keep playing.
The Bears have now won seven of their last eight games and this senior laden team wants nothing more than to close out the season with a championship, albeit the NIT. The offense is using better ball distribution as Baylor is taking fewer perimeter shots which is the main reason for its 52.2 percent shooting over the last five games. Baylor is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games following two or more straight wins. The run through the Big XII Tournament and the win over the Aztecs improved Baylor to 14-3 ATS in its last 17 neutral court games.
The Nittany Lions were one of several teams that were disappointed in not receiving an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament and they carried that displeasure over into the first NIT game. They needed a last second three-pointer in regulation to defeat George Mason in overtime but since then, they are playing with focus and motivation as the last three wins have come by an average of 9.3 ppg including the last two which were both away from home. After dropping three in a row at the beginning of February, the Nittany Lions have won nine of their last 12 games.
The victory over Notre Dame gave Penn St. 26 victories, the most wins in program history so it is definitely a special year in State College and that was exemplified at MSG with the enormous fan support against the Irish. Released from the physical and intense defensive style of the Big Ten, Penn State averaged 80 ppg in its first two NIT games and is putting up 74.5 ppg overall in the tournament, a jump of 13.8 ppg over its 60.7 ppg Big Ten average. Penn St. is also doing a great job from the free throw line, hitting 74.5 percent over its last five games after hitting just 64.8 percent prior to that.
Against the Numbers
Expectations were very high for Baylor this season and because of the losses that piled up, backers had their wallets emptied. The Bears started the season going 4-1 ATS but it was all downhill after that. A home loss to South Carolina started a run of 14 losses against the number in 17 games. Baylor has turned it around since the start of the postseason, going 6-2 ATS. The Bears are just 5-11 ATS as a favorite this season and while that includes a 0-3 ATS mark in true road games, they are 2-1 ATS as a neutral chalk, losing only to Wake Forest as a 1.5-point favorite in Anaheim.
Penn St. was expected to be good but the Nittany Lions rose above expectations and with that came a lot of victories and a lot of spread covers. Penn St. is 18-12 ATS on the season but most of that success came early on. They started out 9-3-1 ATS in their first 13 lined games so it has pretty much been a wash since then although they are on a 3-0 ATS run in their last three games. Penn St. is 3-2 ATS in neutral court games but both of those losses came when getting points. The Nittany Lions are 10-4-1 in their 15 games when facing a team coming off a win.
Intangibles
Baylor is 11-1 this season against first-time opponents…The Bears are 12-4 over the last two seasons in tournament play including 9-2 this season…The Bears will try for their first championship of any kind since winning the Southwest Conference title in 1950…Penn St. was the only team to have defeated each of the top three teams in the final Big Ten standings during the regular season…Penn St. is 24-2 on the year and 39-7 over the last two seasons when getting more free throw attempts than its opponent…The Nittany Lions have committed 10 turnovers or less 17 times on the year and they are 6th in the nation, averaging just 10.7 turnovers per game.
Game of the day: NCAAB NIT Championship
By Matt Fargo
Baylor Bears vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (+3.5, 138)
Game taking place at Madison Square Garden
The betting numbers
This game opened at LVSC with Baylor -3 and the total set at 136. It would not be surprising to see this line come down since Penn State is likely to have the majority of fan support at the Garden. Surprisingly, Baylor is favored by more points in the championship game than it was in the semifinal game.
Series History
This will be just the second ever meeting between Baylor and Penn State. The Bears won the first meeting 72-70 back in 1990 at the Dr. Pepper Invitational.
The teams
Baylor was pretty much left for dead toward the end of the regular season. The Bears were supposed to make some noise in the Big 12 but limped in with a 5-11 record and a number nine seed in the conference tournament. The Bears used that as motivation and went on a strong run in their conference tourney before bowing out to Missouri in the championship game.
The Bears have won seven of their last eight games and this senior-laden team wants nothing more than to close out the season with an NIT championship.
The offense is using better ball distribution as Baylor is taking fewer perimeter shots which is the main reason for its 52.2 percent shooting over the last five games. Baylor is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games following two or more consecutive wins. The run through the Big 12 tournament and the win over the Aztecs improved Baylor to 14-3 ATS in its last 17 neutral court games.
The Nittany Lions were one of several teams that were disappointed in not receiving an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament and they carried that displeasure over into the first NIT game. They needed a last second three-pointer in regulation to defeat George Mason in overtime but since then they’ve played with focus and motivation.
The victory over Notre Dame gave Penn State 26 victories - the most wins in program history. The Lion fans have come out in droves to support their team’s successful season as demonstrated in the semifinal win over the Irish.
Released from the physical and intense defensive style of the Big Ten, Penn State averaged 80 ppg in its first two NIT games and is putting up 74.5 ppg overall in the tournament, a jump of 13.8 ppg over its 60.7 ppg Big Ten average. Penn St. is also doing a great job from the free throw line, hitting 74.5 percent over its last five games after hitting just 64.8 percent prior to that.
Against the numbers
Expectations were very high for Baylor this season and because of the losses that piled up, backers had their wallets emptied. The Bears started the season going 4-1 ATS but it was all downhill after that. A home loss to South Carolina started a run of 14 losses against the number in 17 games. Baylor has turned it around since the start of the postseason, going 6-2 ATS. The Bears are just 5-11 ATS as a favorite this season and while that includes a 0-3 ATS mark in true road games, they are 2-1 ATS as a neutral chalk, losing only to Wake Forest as a 1.5-point favorite in Anaheim.
Penn St. was expected to be good but the Nittany Lions rose above expectations cashing in for their backers frequently along the way. Penn St. is 18-12 ATS on the season but most of that success came early on. The Lions started out 9-3-1 ATS in their first 13 lined games so it has pretty much been a wash since then although they are on a 3-0 ATS run in their last three games. Penn St. is 3-2 ATS in neutral court games but both of those losses came when getting points. The Nittany Lions are 10-4-1 in their 15 games when facing a team coming off a win.
Intangibles
Baylor is 11-1 this season against first-time opponents…The Bears are 12-4 over the last two seasons in tournament play including 9-2 this season…The Bears will try for their first championship of any kind since winning the Southwest Conference title in 1950…Penn St. was the only team to have defeated each of the top three teams in the final Big Ten standings during the regular season…Penn St. is 24-2 on the year and 39-7 over the last two seasons when getting more free throw attempts than its opponent…The Nittany Lions have committed 10 turnovers or less 17 times on the year and they are sixth in the nation, averaging just 10.7 turnovers per game.
Baylor Bears vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
- The Baylor Bears and the Penn State Nittany Lions will both be gunning for a victory on Thursday when they meet at Madison Square Garden in the championship game of the National Invitational Tournament.
Curtis Jerrells went for 25 points and eight assists, as Baylor ran past San Diego State 76-62 in the semifinals on Tuesday night.
Baylor cashed as 1-point favorites as the game played over the 136-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Talor Battle scored 17 points to lead Penn State over Notre Dame 67-59 in the semifinals on Tuesday night.
Penn State cashed as 3.5-point underdogs as the teams played under the 138-point total set by sportsbooks.
Team records:
Baylor: 24-14 SU, 13-16-1 ATS
Penn State: 26-11 SU, 18-12 ATS
Baylor most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 4-6
After a win are 6-4
Penn State most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 4-6
After playing Notre Dame are 1-0
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Baylor is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Penn State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
BAYLOR vs. PENN STATE
Baylor is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Baylor is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Penn State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Penn State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
NCAAB Today
NIT
Baylor won six of its last seven games since start of Big 12 tournament; they were underdog in five of the seven games, they're 3-11-1 vs spread as a favorite this season. They're an experienced, guard-oriented club that likes to play fast. Penn State plays slower pace; they held Notre Dame to 33% from floor in 67-59 win Tuesday. Lions will have busloads of students rooting for them (had 16 busloads Tuesday). Both sides have won 15 of their 17 non-conference games this season.
BAYLOR (24 - 14) vs. PENN ST (26 - 11)
Top Trends for this game.
PENN ST is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
BAYLOR is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games in all tournament games this season.
BAYLOR is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NIT Tournament - Championship - New York, NY
BAYLOR vs. PENN STATE
BAYLOR: 12-4 ATS on neutral court
PENN STATE: 1-5 ATS off SU dog win
NIT Final Preview
By Indiancowboy
Baylor vs. Penn State
Give both of these schools credit for making it this far. The bottom line here is you have a very good Penn State defense facing a very good Baylor offense. This is the NIT Championship of course. Baylor has consistently put up 70+ points in this NIT tournament including 74 against Georgetown, 84 against Virginia Tech, 74 against Auburn, 76 against San Diego State and now facing a Baylor team who they will likely put up 70+ as well. The last total closed at 138 as Baylor and San Diego State's final score was 76-62. What's impressive is that San Diego State was a top 40 team coming into that game and Baylor handled them with relative ease. What's interesting is that for Penn State to win this game, it needs to go Under. After all, when they won at Florida with their stifling defense, they won 71-62 (133) and beat Notre Dame 67-59 (126). Baylor has hit its stride late into the tournament but remember this team has had the goods to beat Arizona State, Providence and win the Big 12 Championship. I lean on Baylor here for the side but will probably play a total.