Tuesday's Best Best NCAAB Bet
No. 18 Michigan State at No. 22 Illinois (-5, 138)
Tom Izzo’s Spartans started the season as the second-ranked team in the nation, but have gradually dropped in the rankings all season. The squad has won six of eight, but all season they seem to lose every game against a highly-ranked opponent, until tipping Wisconsin in overtime last week.
Senior Kalin Lucas has scored in double figures in eight straight games, while Draymond Green and Durrell Summers have been inconsistent for the equally puzzling Spartans.
Illinois also has five losses on its resume, but enters Tuesday’s contest having dropped two straight.
Demetri McCamey has been reliable for the Fighting Illini, averaging 17.6 points in his last five games, but Illinois’ other top scorers, Mike Davis, D.J. Richardson and Mike Tisdale, have not been giving the game-in-game-out effort that’s needed.
As a result both of these Big Ten squads have gone back to what they usually do best – defense. Illinois has held opponents to under 70 points in six of its last 10 contests, while Michigan State hasn’t allowed 70 points in seven straight contests.
The under has gone 5-1 in Michigan State’s last six games, while it is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings. As the losses continue to pile up for these programs it could do serious damage to these school’s chances at the postseason, so look for both squads to clamp down on defense in an attempt to win.
Pick: Under
Illinois hosts Michigan State in Big Ten betting
By: Joe Freda
The No. 16 Illinois Fighting Illini a 3-2 spread record in their last five games, with the ‘over’ going 4-1. Bruce Weber’s squad begins a two-game homestand with Tuesday’s duel against the No. 24 Michigan State Spartans, who enter the contest following two straight overtime wins.
Michigan State’s latest triumph in extra minutes came with Saturday’s 71-67 win as an 8 ½-point home favorite against the Northwestern Wildcats. The Spartans came back from a five-point halftime deficit to tie the game, 60-60, before outscoring Northwestern in overtime, 11-7.
Spartans guard Keith Appling logged a team-high of 19 points, while adding four boards. The team’s top three-point shooter (45.2 percent) drained 5-of-8 from beyond the arc.
Michigan State’s Draymond Green finished with 16 points and a team-high eight boards. The junior forward hit 10-of-10 free throws, while adding two assists.
The tight affair’s combined 138 points stayed south of the 141 ½-point ‘total,’ bringing the ‘under’ to 5-1 in the Spartans’ past six games. Michigan State allowed 45.3 percent of Northwestern’s field shots to connect, while outrebounding the Wildcats, 34-25.
The Spartans are 3-4 ATS in their first seven games away from home, with the ‘under’ cashing at 5-2. Tom Izzo’s troops have put up 61.7 PPG in the last three contests of that stretch.
Illinois suffered its second loss in Big Ten Conference play with Saturday’s 76-66 defeat as a six-point road dog against the Wisconsin Badgers. The Fighting Illini were held to 30.2 percent field shooting, while connecting on 30-of-36 free throws.
Fighting Illini guard Demetri McCamey notched team-highs of 23 points and five assists. The senior hit a sparse 3-of-13 from the field, struggling after combining to shoot 52.2 percent over his prior five outings.
McCamey’s mate Mike Tisdale grabbed a team-high nine rebounds en route to finishing with eight points. The team’s leader in blocks (1.4 BPG) failed to log one for the second time in three games, while draining 1-of-2 three-point shots.
The battle’s combined 142 points soared above the NCAA odds ‘total’ of 124. Both squads finished even in rebounds (32-32) and turnovers (7-7).
The Fighting Illini are 6-3 ATS in their first nine ’board’ home dates, with the ‘over’ going 5-3 in the eight matchups containing a ‘total.’ Tisdale and Co. have allowed a stingy 62 PPG in their last two home duels.
Illinois is 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings against the Spartans, with the ‘total’ splitting at 2-2.
The Fighting Illini won last February’s matchup between the rivals, 78-73, as 1 ½-point home dogs. McCamey hit 6-of-9 from three-point land for Illinois en route to a team-high 22 points. Green logged a double-double for Michigan State, finishing with 17 points and 16 boards.
Tuesday’s tip is scheduled for 4 p.m. (PT), with ESPN providing the national television coverage.
Both teams will be off for three days until resuming action as part of Saturday’s college hoops card. Michigan State will visit the No. 8 Purdue Boilermakers, while Illinois hosts the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes.
Kentucky Wildcats at Alabama Crimson Tide
By: Michael Robinson
The young Kentucky Wildcats are trying to learn how to win on the road in the SEC as they visit the Alabama Crimson Tide on Tuesday night.
No. 12 Kentucky (14-3 straight-up, 7-5 against the spread) has played just one SEC road game this year, a 77-70 loss at Georgia as five-point favorites back on January 8.
Kentucky only shot 38 percent from the field and had three players foul out late. This is an extremely thin team with just 10 guys on the roster and a six-man rotation. The three leading scorers are all freshmen with forward Terrence Jones (18.6 PPG) and guards Brandon Knight (17.5 PPG) and Doron Lamb (13.8 PPG).
The Wildcats are 2-2 SU and ATS in true road games this year. They were 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in SEC road games last year, although that was a completely different squad with five players who left as NBA first-round picks.
Coach John Calipari was angry about the Georgia loss and Kentucky has rebounded with home wins over Auburn (78-54) and most recently LSU (82-44). The ‘under’ went 2-0 and is 7-4-1 on the season. Kentucky is only 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing less than 50 points.
Jones has been the sixth man the last two games instead of Lamb. He scored 35 total points in his new role and should remain there Tuesday night. The 6-foot-8 Jones is the team’s only rotation player over 6-foot-7 with the exception of 6-foot-10 Josh Harrellson.
Harrellson and Jones combine for 18.5 rebounds per game. The team is No. 1 in the SEC in rebounding margin (7.2 per game) with every player hitting the boards. Center Enes Kanter from Turkey would have been a huge addition, but was recently ruled permanently ineligible.
Alabama (10-7 SU, 5-8 ATS) had a tough start to the year at 5-6 SU and 1-7 ATS. There were outright losses to St. Peter’s and Iowa as 12 and 8 ½-point favorites respectively and second-year coach Anthony Grant seemed he would be lucky to match last year’s 17-15 SU mark.
Grant’s guys have turned things around the last six games, going 5-1 SU and 4-1 ATS. The only loss was last Saturday at Arkansas, 70-65 as two-point underdogs. Bama led 63-59 with just over three minutes left until the Razorbacks ended with an 11-2 run.
Alabama did have wins and ‘covers’ in its first two SEC games at Mississippi State (75-57) and home to South Carolina (57-47).
The 135 combined points scored in the matchup with Arkansas went over the 127-point total. The ‘over’ is 5-2 in the Crimson Tide’s last seven games with totals, a lot of them low.
Alabama ranks 10th among SEC teams in scoring at 67.5 PPG (Kentucky is tops at 80 PPG). However, Alabama leads in points allowed at 56.8 PPG.
The team has two solid scorers in forwards JaMychal Green (15.4 PPG) and Tony Mitchell (14.4 PPG). Guards Charvez Davis (9.4 PPG), Trevor Releford (9.7 PPG) need to be more consistent with their offensive output.
The Crimson Tide match up well against Kentucky size and depth wise. They were 0-2 SU, but 2-0 ATS in the two meetings last year at Kentucky and in the SEC tournament. Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in its last five at Alabama. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in the last six at Alabama.
Neither team is reporting any significant injuries. ESPN will have the 6 p.m. (PT) tip-off from Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa following Michigan State at Illinois.
College Basketball Knowledge
Tennessee won 11 of last 12 games vs Georgia, but lost to Dawgs here LY; Vols won five of their last six visits to Athens, winning by 7-5-6-3-9 points- they're 1-2 during Pearl's suspension, losing by 3 at Arkansas in their only SEC road game. Dawgs shot 63% from floor in 98-76 win vs Ole Miss Saturday. SEC single digit home faves are 3-5 vs spread.
Colorado is off to 3-0 start in Big 12, winning by 8 at Kansas State in its only road game. Home side won nine of last 11 Colorado-Nebraska tilts. Buffs are 1-5 in last six visits here (won here LY), losing by 15-16-21-5- 19 points. Nebraska is 1-2 in Big 12- three games were decided by total of 12 points. Big 12 home favorites of 7 or less points are 4-2-1.
Georgetown won four of last five games vs Seton Hall, with home team winning five of last six in series; Hoyas lost two of last three visits to Seton Hall. Pirates split pair of road games since top scorer Hazell came back from wrist injury. Hoyas lost three of last of four games, and were favored in all four. Big East single digit home underdogs are 4-7.
Michigan State is 7-3 in last ten games vs Illinois, winning two of its last three visits here; Spartans' last four games were all decided by 4 or less points- they're 2-0 as an underdog this year, losing by 5 at Duke, by 4 at Penn State, winning by 3 at Northwestern in true road games. Illinois lost its last two games, but won its two Big 11 home games by 8-25 pts.
Illinois State won three of last four games vs Drake, but lost four of last five visits here, losing by 4-4-6-10 points. ISU is 0-7 in MVC, losing its last three games by 4-2-5 points- they're 2-1 as a road dog, losing away games by 11-15-4 points. Drake lost three in row, five of last six games. MVC home favorites of 4 or less points are 3-5 against the spread.
Evansville is 3-13 in last 16 games vs Southern Illinois, losing last seven visits to Carbondale, by 18-24-9-28-20-7-16 points; Aces won last two games, giving up 53.5 ppg, after 1-4 start in Valley. Salukis lost three of last four games, are 2-1 at home in MVC, 0-2 as home faves, winning by 2-4 points. MVC home favorites are 9-11-1 against the spread.
Clemson has NEVER won in Chapel Hill, losing last five visits here by 16-32-15-10ot-24 points- Tigers did rout UNC by 19 at home last year, ending 9-game series losing skid. Tar Heels are 2-1 in ACC, with wins by 6-3 points, but 20-point loss at Ga Tech Sunday is red flag. Clemson scored 83 ppg in winning its last two games, by 7-25 points.
Texas Tech/Oklahoma are both 0-3 in Big 12, so this is huge game here for both sides; Tech was 4-12 in Big 12 LY but swept Sooners, winning by 1-10 points. Red Raiders lost four of last five visits to Norman, with losses by 12-24-2-21 points. Oklahoma is favored despite losing three Big 12 games, all by 13+. Big 12 single digit home favorites are 4-2-1.
Northwestern swept Michigan LY by 6-15 points after losing five of six to Wolverines before that; Michigan won three of last four visits here by 12-10-3 points (lost by 15 LY). Wildcats are 2-4 in Big 11, losing twice to Michigan State by total of 7 points- they scored 90+ points in both its Big 11 wins. Michigan lost its last three games, by 16-4-19 points.
Marquette is 7-2 in last nine games vs DePaul, winning last six here by 8-10-15-8-9-11 points. Eagles blew 18-point lead in last 5:44 Saturday at Villanova- they're 3-2 in Big East, 3-0 as favorite, winning by 5-8-22 points. DePaul is 0-5 in Big East, covering both games as road dogs with losses by 16-11 points. Big East home favorites of 7+ points are 10-7.
Kentucky won its last five games vs Alabama, with four of five wins by 10+ points- they won two of last three visits here, winning by 7-10 pts. Young Wildcats are 2-2 on road, losing at Georgia by 7, at UNC by 2-- they won by 31 at Portland, 15 at Louisville. Alabama won five of last six games, but they're 0-5 against spread as an underdog this season.
BYU is 12-0 vs TCU in MWC play, winning five games here by 9-24-11-12-20 points- they scored 92.7 ppg in beating TCU three times LY. Cougars are 3-0 in MWC this year, winning by 12-10-25 points; they've been off for week. Frogs are 0-2 on MWC road, losing at UNLV by 34, Colorado State by 10. MWC home favorites are 6-4 vs spread, 2-1 if they're laying double digits.
Tips and Trends
Michigan St. Spartans at Illinois Fighting Illini
SPARTANS: The last time Michigan St. played Illinois, they lost 73-78 SU. This years edition of the Spartans has proven to be overrated, as they simply can't live up the preseason expectations. Coach Izzo led teams traditionally get better as the season progresses, so it will be interesting to see how the next few months play out. Michigan St. has won each of their past 2 games in overtime. The Spartans are 12-5 SU and 6-10 ATS overall this year, placing them 18th in the national polls. The Spartans are 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in true road games this year. Michigan St. is 2-0 ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Spartans are predominately a 3 headed monster, led by PG Kalin Lucas. Lucas is averaging a team high of 14.7 PPG this year. G Durrell Summers is averaging 14.2 PPG and 4.8 RPG this season. F Draymond Green is averaging 12.8 PPG and a team high 8.9 RPG this year. The Spartans are 15-34-2 ATS in their last 51 Tuesday games. Michigan St. is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a winning SU record. The Spartans are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win.
Spartans are 2-6 ATS last 8 games overall.
Under is 5-0 last 5 games following a SU win.
Key Injuries - G Russell Byrd (foot) is doubtful.
Projected Score: 65
FIGHTING ILLINI: (-5, O/U 138) Illinois has lost their past 2 games, a costly reminder of how difficult it is to win on the road in Big 10 play. The Illini were beaten soundly by both Wisconsin and Penn St. in their past 2 games. Illinois is 13-5 SU and 9-9 ATS overall this season, ranking them 22nd in the national polls. Illinois is undefeated at home this year, going 9-0 SU. The Illini are also 6-3 ATS at home this year, including 3-0 ATS as a single digit home favorite. The Fighting Illini are averaging 75.4 PPG this season, with G Demetri McCamey leading the way. McCamey is averaging team highs of 16.2 PPG and 7 APG this year. C Mike Tisdale is averaging 10.2 PPG and a team high 7.6 RPG this season. The Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. Illinois is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record.
Fighting Illini are 5-2 ATS last 7 games against the Big Ten.
Over is 19-8 last 27 home games.
Key Injuries - G Jerome Richmond (personal) is questionable.
Projected Score: 67 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
Kentucky Wildcats at Alabama Crimson Tide
WILDCATS: (-5, O/U 130.5) Kentucky has been a pleasant surprise this year, as they are playing with a pose and maturity level that few thought imaginable considering just how young they are. The Wildcats are 14-3 SU and 7-5 ATS overall this year, ranking them 12h in the nation in the polls. Kentucky is 2-1 in conference play, putting them in a 4 way tie for the SEC East lead. The Wildcats are 2-2 both SU and ATS in true road games this season. Kentucky is 2-3 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. Tonight starts a tough stretch for Kentucky, as they play 4 of their next 5 games on the road. F Terrance Jones is averaging a team high 18.6 PPG and 9 RPG this year. G Brandon Knight is averaging 17.5 PPG and a team high 3.9 APG this season. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning SU record. The Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against the SEC.
Wildcats are 1-10 ATS last 11 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games following an ATS win.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 63
TIDE: Alabama has as good as chance as ever to beat Kentucky tonight. The Tide have revenge on their minds, since they've lost the previous 5 meetings against the Wildcats. Alabama is 10-7 SU and 5-8 ATS overall this year. Alabama is in a 4 game tie for the SEC West lead. The Tide are undefeated at home this year, going a perfect 9-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. Tonight will mark the first time this season that Alabama will be the listed home underdog. The Tide are 0-5 ATS this season as the listed underdog. F JaMychal Green is one of 2 Crimson Tide players averaging double figures in PPG. Green is averaging a team high 15.4 PPG and 7.4 RPG this year. F Tony Mitchell is averaging 14.4 PPG and a team high 7.9 RPG this season. The Crimson Tide are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the SEC. Alabama is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Crimson Tide are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning SU record. Alabama is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. The Crimson Tide are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss.
Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS last 4 home games.
Over is 7-2 last 9 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Key Injuries - G Kendall Durant (foot) is doubtful.
Projected Score: 65 (SIDE of the Day)
Game of the day: Michigan State at Illinois
THE STORY: While No. 22 Illinois and No. 18 Michigan State struggle, No. 1 Ohio State is starting to run away with the Big Ten. Whichever school manages to make it out of Tuesday’s battle between the Fighting Illini and Spartans in Champaign will go a long way towards asserting itself as a worthy challenger to the Buckeyes. Michigan State has managed to string together a few wins lately, though not in a very impressive fashion. Illinois has found itself in a bit of a slump as it enters the hardest part of its schedule.
TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
ODDS: The Illini opened as 5-point home favorites, with some markets posting 4.5. The total opened as high as 138, and has since dropped as low as 136.5 points.
ABOUT ILLINOIS (13-5, 3-2 Big Ten, 9-9 ATS): The Fighting Illini came into Big Ten play having dropped two straight non-conference games but appeared to right themselves with a win at Iowa, a home victory over Wisconsin, and a sound beating of Northwestern. But all of those good feeling went out the window last week, as Illinois got out-muscled in a 57-55 loss at Penn State and then failed to guard the 3-point line while shooting just 30 percent from the floor in a 76-66 setback at Wisconsin.
Demetri McCamey went 3 of 13 from the floor but finished 17 of 21 at the free throw line to lead the Illini with 23 points against the Badgers. Brandon Paul was the only other Illinois player to finish in double figures with 15 points. Head coach Bruce Weber told the media that freshman stud Jereme Richmond will likely play against MSU after being in Weber’s doghouse the last week. Richmond, who is averaging 7.5 points per game, was held out of practice last week and was benched for Saturday’s loss to Wisconsin.
ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (12-5, 4-1, 6-10 ATS): The Spartans have managed to squeeze out two overtime victories in a row, winning at home against Wisconsin and Northwestern. With a lineup dominated by upperclassmen and a coach many consider one of the very best in Tom Izzo, the fact that Michigan State has not been able to cruise this season is a source of concern for some fans.
The preseason No. 2 team in the country, the Spartans needed 19 points and a key 3-pointer from freshman Keith Appling on Saturday in order to edge unranked Northwestern, 71-67. Kalin Lucas added 18 points and Draymond Green had 16 for the Spartans, who shot 38.5 percent (20 of 52) and needed a 28-18 free throw advantage and a 34-25 rebounding edge just to scrape by.
WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT: Lucas has reached double figures in eight straight games for Michigan State and is 15 of 18 from the free throw line in the last two. Fellow senior Durrell Summers has not been nearly as sharp, going 3 of 11 from the field for seven points in the last two games combined. McCamey is 6 of 21 from the floor in the last two games.
KEY STATISTIC: 71. For a team with as much experience and athleticism as Michigan State, it is somewhat shocking that it has failed to record more than 71 points in five Big Ten games, including a pair of overtime contests. For the Spartans to pick up another conference road win, the offense is going to have to be able to keep up with the Illini.
RECENT HISTORY: The Spartans had a five-game winning streak in the series snapped on Feb. 6 last season, when the Fighting Illini grabbed a home victory, 78-73. McCamey led the way with 22 points and 11 assists and Mike Davis scored 16 off the bench. Both schools shot over 50 percent in that one, with Draymond Green pacing Michigan State with 17 points and 16 boards.
LOOKING AHEAD: It only gets harder for Illinois, which welcomes No. 1 Ohio State to Champaign on Saturday. Three in a row against unranked teams follow, though the Feb. 5 date at Northwestern could be tricky. Michigan State doesn’t get a break, either, with a trip to No. 13 Purdue scheduled for Saturday and a home date with rival Michigan coming up next week.
LAST WORD: Six teams from the Big Ten made it into the most recent Top-25 poll, making it the second-most recognized conference in the country behind the Big East. Only Ohio State remains undefeated, leaving a mad scramble for the second spot in the league.
TRENDS:
- Under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.
- Spartans are 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
- Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
- Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.