Game Of The Day: Michigan State at North Carolina
By RICKY DIMON
LINE: (UNC -3)
Rematch? What rematch?
Michigan State (5-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) and North Carolina (6-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) faced each other in last season’s National Championship, which the heavily-favored Tar Heels dominated 89-72 and covered as 7.5-point faves.
While the media will play this up as a revenge game of the 2009 title game, Michigan State is going up against a completely different North Carolina squad. Gone from Chapel Hill are Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, and Bobby Frasor. Now leading the way are Deon Thompson (17.7 ppg, 8.9 rpg), Ed Davis (12.7 ppg, 9.9 rpg) and Marcus Ginyard (11.4 ppg, 4.1 apg).
The Tar Heels can no longer run like they did with Lawson at the helm, nor can they light it up from long range like they did with Ellington and Green. Their new style features a heavy dose of Thompson and Davis hammering opponents in the paint.
Larry Drew II has been up-and-down (7.7 ppg, 6.7 apg, 3.0 turnovers per game)while assuming the tough task of replacing Lawson at point guard, but he is coming off his best game as a Tar Heel on Sunday night against Nevada. The sophomore scored 12 points on 4-for-7 shooting and dished out 10 assists at the expense of only one turnover in a hard-fought 80-73 home victory.
Sparty still flexing muscle
While Tom Izzo has most of his runner-up team intact, center Goran Suton and guard Travis Walton have departed. Suton was the Spartans’ best player against Carolina, scoring 17 points on 7-for-10 shooting and grabbing 11 rebounds.
Michigan State boasts no true center this year, but Draymond Green (10.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg) and Delvon Roe (7.3 ppg, 7.5 rpg) are big bodies who can be physical with Thompson and Davis.
Junior guard Kalin Lucas, who led the team in points per game last season, is taking on an even greater scoring role in Suton’s absence. Lucas (17.2 ppg, 3.1 apg) is shooting 54 percent from the field and 46 percent from 3-point range through six games.
In the Holiday spirit
Michigan State’s one loss this season came against unranked Florida in the semifinals of the Legends Classic on Saturday. The Spartans turned the ball over 23 times, leading to 28 Florida points, before falling 77-74.
“I'm shocked we were even in the game the way we turned it over,” Izzo said. “I mean, the things we could have done poorly, we did about as top notch as we could do them.”
North Carolina is turning the ball over 17.3 times per game this season, after making only 12.4 donations per game during last year’s title run. Against the two ranked teams they have faced this season, the Tar Heels turned it over 19 times in a 77-73 win over Ohio State before giving the ball away 18 times to Syracuse in an 87-71 Orangemen victory.
Milestone men
North Carolina’s win over Nevada on Sunday night gave Roy Williams his 600th career victory. Williams, the 33rd coach in NCAA history to reach the 600-mark, is the third-fastest to do it, needing only 739 games.
Michigan State bounced back from its loss to Florida with a 73-58 victory over Massachusetts in the Legends Classic third-place game on Saturday. It was Izzo’s 341st coaching victory as head man of the Spartans, making him the all-time wins leader at the school ahead of Jud Heathcote.
Izzo, however, is 0-4 against the Tar Heels since Roy Williams arrived in Chapel Hill. North Carolina has dominated all four contests—three in the NCAA tournament—by a combined 82 points.
Big Ten challenged
The Big Ten has never won the ACC-Big Ten challenge since the event’s inception in 1999. For those counting, that means the conference sports a dismal 0-10 record. Overall, Big Ten teams have combined for a dreadful 35-62 mark in those games.
The Tar Heels are a mediocre 5-5 in this competition, but they have won four straight and five of their last six. North Carolina visited East Lansing last December and routed the Spartans 98-63.
At 5-4, Michigan State is the only Big Ten team that owns a winning record in this annual showdown against the ACC.
And for any bettors thinking about playing the over/under, the Spartans are seventh in the nation in scoring at 86.2 points per game. The Tar Heels rank 17th nationally, pouring in 83.7 points per contest.
NCAAB News and Notes
Tuesday, December 1
Information on Tuesdays college hoop games........
Temple is 4-2, splitting pair of road games, winning at Delaware by 20, losing by 1 at Georgetown; Owls scored 45-48 in losses, average of 69.3 in wins. A-14 road favorites are 5-6. Western Michigan is 2-2, beating VCU (83-67), Holy Cross (64-54) at home. MAC home dogs are 2-3.
Northeastern hit half-court shot at buzzer to beat Wright State Saturday; they're 2-2, winning both home games by 3 points (Utah St, Wright St). CAA home favorites are 3-7 vs spread. Providence lost four starters off 19-14 team; they're 4-2 so far, losing only road game by 9 at Alabama.
Purdue is 5-0 with neutral court win over Tennessee; they've won home games by 26-25 points this year (2-2 as fave, 1-1 as HF). Boilermakers have three starters back from 27-10 team. Big 11 home faves are 9-4 vs spread. Wake Forest lost at home to Wm & Mary Saturday, its first loss in five games; ACC road dogs are 3-4 vs spread.
Northwestern is 5-1, with upset wins over Notre Dame, Iowa State in spite of losing two key players for year. Big 11 underdogs are 3-6, 3-4 on road. NC State is 5-0, allowing 53.4 ppg with wins over Austin Peay and Auburn. ACC favorites are 19-18 against spread, 7-7 at home.
Maryland is 3-2 after losing to Cincinnati (69-57), Wisconsin (78-69) at Maui; they have four starters back from 21-14 team- ACC road faves are 12-11 vs spread. This is their first true road game. Indiana is rebuilding from Sampson mess; they're 3-3, with two losses by four ot less points, with four starters back from LY's 6-25 debacle (1-17 in Big 11).
UL-Lafayette (+16) lost 81-79 at LSU LY; Cajuns are 0-2 vs D-I clubs, and also lost to Mobile, whoever they are. ULL has four starters back from 10-20 team (7-11 in Sun Belt). LSU lost twice in NYC last week; they're 3-2, with wins by 20-11-11. Sun Belt road underdogs are 11-14.
San Francisco lost last four games, by 39-11-4-16 points; they're 0-3 as an underdog. Dons have four starters back from an 11-19 team (3-11 in WCC). Colorado has four starters back from 9-22 team; they lost twice by 4 points in Maui, won three home games vs stiffs. Big 12 HFs: 9-3. Dons lost by 16 in double overtime at Colorado State Sunday.
Home sides won both UTEP-New Mexico State games LY, with Aggies losing here by 15, winning at home by 12. NM State has four starters back from 17-15 team (9-7 in WAC). WAC underdogs are 10-13, 2-4 at home. UTEP is 4-0 against stiffs; C-USA favorites are 13-8, 2-3 away.
North Carolina beat Michigan State for national title last April, but four of UNC's five starters are in NBA now; Tar Heels are 6-1, 2-3 vs spread as favorite. ACC home faves are 7-7. Michigan State is playing its third game in 5 days after losing to Florida, crushing UMass in Atlantic City. Big 11 underdogs are 3-6, 3-4 on road.
Iowa is 2-4, 0-4 when it scores 60 or less points; they've already lost at home to Tex-San Antonio/Duquesne. Hawkeyes have two starters back from 13-17 team (5-13 in Big 11). Virginia Tech has three starters back from 19-15 team (7-9 in ACC). Hokies 0-3 vs spread as a favorite; they are 4-1 SU, with only loss 61-50 to Temple.
Fresno (+11) won 66-64 at Pacific LY; Bulldogs lost last three games, all by 7 or less points- they have 3 starters back from 13-21 club. Pacific is 5-1, allowing 59.6 ppg after losing 59-55 at San Jose last game; Tigers are 1-3 as the favorite. WAC favorites are 6-9 vs spread, 4-5 at home.
UCSB is 4-0, beating D-I opponents by 9-11-5 points; they have four starters back from 16-15 team (8-8 in Big West). Santa Clara is 3-3, but its three losses are by 33-27-16 points (1-2 as the dog). Big West home favorites are 5-0 vs spread. WCC road underdogs are 7-7 vs spread.
Northern Colorado (+7) lost 85-74 at Colorado LY in game that was tied at half; Bears have three starters back from 14-19 team (8-8 in Big Sky). Big Sky home favorites are 1-4 vs spread. Colorado State hast three of its starters back from 9-22 team; Rams are 4-2, 2-0 as favorite after they won by 16 in double overtime against San Francisco Sunday.
(9) Michigan State (5-1, 2-3 ATS) at (10) North Carolina (6-1, 2-4 ATS)
The Spartans look to avenge their loss to North Carolina in last year’s national championship game when they trek to Chapel Hill for an ACC/Big Ten Challenge showdown at the Dean Smith Center.
Michigan State suffered its first defeat Friday in the Legends Classic in Atlantic City, N.J., falling 77-74 to Florida as a 3½-point favorite, but the Spartans rebounded Saturday with a 106-68 pummeling of UMass as a 16½-point favorite in the consolation round. Michigan State has scored at least 74 points in every game this year, averaging 86.2 points per game on 50.4 percent shooting. Defensively, Tom Izzo’s squad is yielding 66 ppg on 37.3 percent shooting, with opponents making just 25.2 percent of their three-point attempts against the Spartans.
The Tar Heels got embarrassed in the 2K Sports Classic championship game back on Nov. 20, losing 87-71 to Syracuse as a 1½-point favorite. But the Tar Heels got healthy last week with a pair of home wins over Gardner-Webb (93-72 in a non-lined contest) and Nevada (80-73, falling short as a 15-point favorite). The victory over Nevada gave coach Roy Williams his 600th career win. Like Michigan State, North Carolina is lighting up the scoreboard with 83.7 ppg (51.8 percent shooting), but it has surrendered 71 ppg despite limiting opponents to just 41.1 percent shooting.
The Tar Heels have scored at least 70 points in 44 of 45 games since the start of last season, hitting the 80-point mark 35 times during this stretch. Also, since the final game of the 2006-2007 regular season, Roy Williams’ squad is 83-9 SU, including 3-0 and ATS against Michigan State. Two of those three victories over the Spartans came in the NCAA Tournament – 81-67 as a 10-point favorite in the second round in 2007 and 89-72 as a 7½-point chalk in last year’s national title game. The other was UNC’s 98-63 rout as a 10-point favorite in last year’s ACC/Big Ten Challenge, a battle that occurred at Ford Field in Detroit, which also was the site of the national championship game rematch.
In last year’s two wins over Michigan State, North Carolina averaged 93.5 ppg while making 47 percent of its shots and held the Spartans to 67.5 ppg (37.2 percent). The Tar Heels also defeated Michigan State 87-71 as a 4½-point favorite in the Final Four en route to their 2005 national title, making UNC 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four meetings with the Spartans – all as a favorite – with those four wins coming by margins of 16, 14, 35 and 17 points.
Michigan State is on ATS hot streaks of 10-3-1 on the highway, 9-4 ATS against non-conference foes and 5-2 as an underdog (all on the road), but it is also in pointspread slumps of 1-5 versus ACC opponents, 5-15-2 on Tuesday and 1-4 after a SU win. North Carolina carries positive ATS trends of 7-3 at home, 40-14 against non-ACC opponents, 6-0 versus the Big Ten, 7-1 against opponents with a winning record and 7-3 following a SU win. However, the Heels have failed to cover in 10 of their last 14 when favored by seven points or less.
The over is 5-1 in the Spartans’ six games this year, and the over is 19-9 in the Tar Heels’ last 28 Tuesday contests and 23-11 in their last 34 after a non-cover. Finally, the total has alternated in the last four matchups between these college hoops powers, with the 2009 national championship contest jumping over the posted number.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER
Wake Forest (4-1, 1-1 ATS) at (4) Purdue (5-0, 2-2-1 ATS)
Wake Forest looks to rebound from a stunning first loss of the season when it travels to Mackay Arena for a battle with the fourth-ranked Boilermakers in the annual ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
After crushing its first four opponents by an average of 24.5 points per game, the Demon Deacons took the court Saturday as 16-point home favorite against William & Mary and lost 78-68. Wake Forest shot a woeful 35.1 percent from the floor and committed 25 fouls, which led to 35 free-throw attempts for William & Mary compared with just 12 for the Deacons. Wake Forest had held its first four opponents to 56, 58, 60 and 52 points.
Purdue has jumped out to a 5-0 start for the second consecutive season, and the Boilermakers are on a 10-1 roll dating to the start of last year’s Big Ten postseason tournament. Purdue, which is averaging 77 points per game, has been challenged just once this year, and that was on Nov. 23 in the finale of the Paradise Jam tournament in St. Thomas, when it held off 10th-ranked Tennessee 73-72, pushing as a one-point chalk. The Boilers followed that with Saturdays’ 64-38 rout of Central Michigan, coming up just short as a 26½-point home favorite.
Although both compete annually in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, this is the first-ever head-to-head meeting between these schools.
Wake Forest has cashed in six of its last seven games on Tuesday and five of its last six as an underdog. Purdue is in ATS funks of 1-3-1 after a SU victory and 1-5 against the ACC, but it is 5-2 ATS in its last seven when favored by 7 to 12½ points.
The Demon Deacons are riding “over” trends of 9-3 overall, 4-1 in non-conference play, 9-3 as an underdog, 4-0 after a SU defeat and 4-1 after a non-cover. The over is also 4-1 in the Boilermakers’ last five Tuesday contests, but otherwise Purdue is on “under” streaks of 5-2 in non-league games and 5-0 against the ACC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Maryland (4-2, 2-2 ATS) at Indiana (3-3, 2-3-1 ATS)
The Terrapins try to bounce back from a disappointing showing in the Maui Invitational when they hit the road again, stopping at Assembly Hall in Bloomington for an ACC/Big Ten Challenge contest against Indiana.
Maryland routed Maui Invitational host Chaminade 79-51 as a 26-point favorite on Nov. 23, but it followed that with non-competitive upset losses to Cincinnati (69-57 as a 3½-point favorite) and Wisconsin (78-69 as a two-point underdog). The Terps, who dropped out of the Top 25 with those defeats, outscored their first four opponents by an average of 30.5 points per game (80.3-49.8), allowing 55 points or less in all four wins, but they’ve been outscored by 10.5 ppg (73.5-63) in their two losses.
The Hoosiers halted a three-game SU losing skid and an 0-3-1 ATS slide with Saturday’s 90-72 home rout of Northwestern State, cashing easily as a 13-point favorite. Indiana tallied 45 points in each half in scoring the most points in any game since coach Tom Crean took over at the start of last season, eclipsing the previous high-water mark of 83. The Hoosiers are struggling defensively, though, yielding 69 points or more in four straight games (75.3 ppg average).
These schools squared off twice in an eight-month span in 2002. First, Maryland earned a 64-52 victory as a 7½-point home favorite in the 2002 national championship game, with the Hoosiers gaining a small bit of revenge the following season in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, prevailing 80-74 in overtime as a 3½-point home chalk.
Despite the loss to Wisconsin in Maui, Maryland is still 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games against Big Ten opponents and 6-2 ATS in its last eight after a SU defeat, but the Terrapins have failed to cash in five of their last seven Tuesday outings and 13 of 18 when favored by less than seven points. Meanwhile, Indiana remains on ATS slides of 2-5-1 overall, 0-5 after a SU win, 0-3-1 as a ‘dog and 1-6 after a spread-cover.
The over is 4-1 in Maryland’s last five non-conference games, but five of its last seven against the Big Ten have stayed low. The Hoosiers are on “under” runs of 6-2 in non-league action, 4-1 against the ACC and 5-1 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARYLAND and UNDER
Hoops-Galore
By SportsPic
College Hoops takes center stage Tuesday with 25+ on the schedule including Wake Forest vs. Purdue, Maryland vs Indiana. Purdue followed up Monday's 73-72 squeaker over Tennessee with a defensive gem in destroying Central Michigan 64-38 on Saturday giving Boilermakers a perfect 5-0 (2-2-1 ATS) mark on the young season. Next up, a date with Wake Forest off a 78-68 loss as -16 point favorites to William & Mary Tribe moving the mark to 4-1 (1-1 ATS). Facing Deacons losing back-2-back games only once in regular season last year and with it's own brand of tenacious defense (60.8 PPG) the Boilermakers could be in a tough spot. Deacons enter 6-1 (5-2 ATS) vs Big 10 opponents while Boilermakers come in 2-5 SU & ATS it's last seven vs the ACC. Meanwhile, Hoosiers did well against the first two cupcakes Howard (83-60), South Carolina Upsate (69-61) but then dropped decisions to Mississippi (89-71), Boston U (71-69), George Mason (69-66) before a solid bounce back defeating Nothwestern St. 90-72 on Saturday. Terrapins behind four double digit scorers had an easy time of it against Charleston Southern (89-51), Fairfield (71-42), New Hampshire (82-55), Chaminade (79-51) but fell flat against Bearcats (69-57) and most recently the Badgers (78-69). Despite Saturday's loss Terps remain a solid 8-3 (6-5 ATS) vs Big 10 foes. Terps more committed on the defensive end (59.0 PPG) than Hoosiers (70.3 PPG) have a clear edge. Don't forget the marquee matchup in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge is between #2 Michigan State - #12 North Carolina in a rematch of last year's National Championship.
Tips and Trends
Michigan State at North Carolina
Michigan St: Today represents payback day for Michigan St. The Spartans lost twice last year to North Carolina, including the National Championship game. “We can’t wait. We can’t wait to play this game.” Those words came from the mouth of star PG Kalin Lucas. Lucas leads a group of 4 players that average double digits in scoring. Michigan St. is a veteran group this season. 7 players played double digit minutes in last years Championship game. This is the 1st time this season that Michigan St. is the underdog.
Michigan St is 12-3-1 ATS last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 5-1 last 6 non-conference games.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 70
North Carolina (-2.5): North Carolina has scored 80 PTS or more in each home game this year. The defending National Champions will attempt to go 6-0 SU at home. Of those home games, they've only won once ATS. F Deon Thompson leads a young Tarheels group with nearly 18 PPG. F Ed Davis is the only other player besides Thompson to play significant time in last years title game. Head Coach Roy Williams just earned his 600th victory in their last game against Nevada. This young Tarheels team has struggled putting teams away, and that's a big reason whey they are only 2-4 ATS this year.
North Carolina is 6-0 ATS last 6 vs. Big Ten.
Under is 6-2 last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 79 (Side of the Day)