Tuesday's Best NCAAB Bets
Southern California Trojans at No. 18 Tennessee Volunteers (-7)
All of a sudden the Tennessee Volunteers are in a freefall. After downing Big East powerhouses Pitt and Villanova earlier this season the Vols have dropped a pair of very winnable games and now have to square off against a Trojans team that just went shot-for-shot with Kansas over the weekend.
Tennessee dropped an 89-82 decision to Oakland as a 11.5-point favorite and put out a terrible effort in falling 49-48 to Charlotte as a 12.5-point favorite, leaving everybody wondering what’s going on with the club that had looked like a legit top-10 team a couple of weeks ago.
"I think we're a good team that had a bad week, but we've got to go prove that now," junior guard Scotty Hopson told reporters. "We had mental lapses, but I think we'll turn it back around next week. Everyone's got to understand what their role and their position on this basketball team is. Once we put that together, I think we'll be fine.”
That may not be the quick fix the Vols think it might be. They shot just 34.9 percent against Charlotte and went to the free-throw line only seven times.
Pick: USC
UNLV Runnin’ Rebels at Kansas State Wildcats (-4.5)
When the Kansas State Wildcats really needed a few shots to go down, they couldn’t get them to go in a 57-44 loss to the Florida Gators.
The Wildcats shot only 27 percent on the night, but could have at least made it close down the stretch if they didn’t go through terrible droughts like the one that saw them miss 19 of 20 shots. Jacob Pullen scored 19 points though even he was only 6 of 17 from the floor.
"We did a lot of things to hurt ourselves," Pullen told reporters. "We missed a lot of easy shots. Defensively we were getting lost. We didn't stick to our game plan. Toward the end of the game we fell apart with it."
Meanwhile, UNLV snapped a two-game slide with a win over Southern Utah, but their slump at the pay window continues. The Rebels have dropped five straight against the number and K-State will show up at home to continue UNLV’s slump.
Pick: Kansas State
Cold Kansas State plays UNLV in NCAA betting matchup
By: Michael Robinson
The Kansas State Wildcats are looking for their offense to heat up when they play the UNLV Rebels on Tuesday night. The game will be played at Kansas City's Sprint Center, technically a neutral site even with easy driving distance from the K-State campus.
Big 12 Kansas State is 9-2 straight-up (3-4 against the spread) and was ranked No. 6 before last Saturday’s 57-44 loss to Florida in the one-day Orange Bowl Classic, when the offense was downright offensive.
Kansas State shot just 3-of-19 from three-point land (15.8 percent) and 15-of-55 overall (27.3 percent) in the pick 'em contest. Guard Jacob Pullen had 19 points, but no one else had more than eight. It was the lowest offensive output since January 2006, before Frank Martin was coach.
The 101 combined points scored didn’t come close to the 134 ½-point total. Kansas State is scoring just 66 PPG in the last four games and 73.3 PPG for the season despite several easy opponents. The ‘under’ is 7-0 in the seven Wildcats games with a total.
Kansas State’s offense was expected to take a hit with the graduation of guard Denis Clemente (16.6 PPG) and the transfer of Dominique Sutton (7.2 PPG). Last year’s team scored 79.7 PPG and made it to the Eight Elite before being shocked by Butler (63-56).
Pullen (16.5 PPG) is down almost three PPG and shooting just 40 percent. Part of the reason is he’s being forced to play point guard with Clemente gone. Shooting guard Rodney McGruder is scoring 10.3 PPG, but shooting just 43 percent.
The big guys are also struggling. Senior power forward Curtis Kelly (10.3 PPG) should be a lot more dominant and so should junior small forward Jamar Samuels (8.8 PPG). Wally Judge (3.8 PPG) has returned from personal issues, but the once promising sophomore can’t be counted on going forward.
No. 22 UNLV (10-2 SU, 4-7 ATS) returned almost all the key components from last year’s 25-9 SU (19-13 ATS) team, losing to Northern Iowa in the NCAA tourney’s first round.
UNLV last played on Saturday against Southern Utah, a 72-50 home win. That snapped a two-game losing streak (Louisville, UC Santa Barbara) after opening 9-0 SU.
The MWC Rebels did fail to ‘cover’ as big 28-point favorites versus Southern Utah. They’re 0-5 ATS in their last five games. The offense is scoring 69.5 PPG in the last four games after 78.6 PPG in the first eight.
Senior guard Tre’Von Willis (10.6 PPG) had just eight points last game. Last year’s leading scorer (17.2 PPG) had offseason minor knee surgery and was suspended for the first two games after an arrest. He’s back in the starting lineup, but needs to produce like last year.
The Rebels have several other nice pieces including point guard Oscar Bellfield (11.8 PPG, 4.3 APG) and swingman Chase Stanback (13.7 PPG, 4.3 PPG). Kelly should have success down low against the UNLV starting frontcourt, with coach Lon Kruger forced to use Brice Massamba and Carlos Lopez off the bench for more size.
UNLV does have one injury to report. Senior guard Derrick Jasper (9.5 PPG) is probable with a knee injury after missing last game. Anthony Marshall went back into the starting lineup in his absence and had a career-high 17 points.
Kansas and UNLV met last December out in Las Vegas. The Wildcats won 95-80 as 2 ½-point ‘dogs. Pullen paced the way with 28 points.
ESPN will have the broadcast beginning at 6 p.m. (PT).
College Basketball Knowledge
USC is 6-5, 2-3 in last five games, but with transfer PG Fontan playing for first time Saturday, they lost 70-68 (+18) at Kansas; Trojans are 3-1 as underdogs, losing true road games by 2-12-2 points. Tennessee is 7-2 against #11 schedule, but lost last two games, to Oakland/Charlotte; they are 3-4 as favorites. Pac-10 single digit road underdogs are 5-10.
Cincinnati won last seven games vs Miami OH, by 4-6-8-10-24-20-12 points; Bearcats are 10-0 playing the #336 schedule- they beat Toledo by 34, Oklahoma by 10 in only true road games. Miami is 2-5 in its last seven games vs D-I teams; they're 2-4 vs spread as underdogs- five of their six losses are by 12+ points.
Long Beach State is only 5-7, but they've played hardest schedule in the country, according to kenpom.com; 49ers are playing 5th road game in a row; they've lost road games by 27 at Washington, 28 at Utah State, 5 at North Carolina- they covered three of last four as a dog. Arizona State is struggling at 5-4, but they've covered three of four as a favorite.
VCU is 7-3, 1-2 as underdog, losing road games by 1 at South Florida, 12 at Richmond, 5 to Tennessee on neutral floor. UAB is 8-2 playing #291 schedule; they're 8-1 vs spread in lined games, 5-1 as favorite. Blazers allowed 55 ppg in last five games. C-USA single digit home favorites are 4-10-1 vs spread. CAA road underdogs of 8 or less points are 11-6.
Iowa is 6-5, playing #225 schedule; they've allowed 53 or less points in its wins, 69+ in its losses- they're 3-5 vs spread as a favorite. Louisiana Tech is 1-2 as underdog; they just split four games vs Southland teams, with three of those on road. WAC double digit road underdogs are 2-9 vs spread. Big 11 home favorites of 12+ points are 15-13 vs spread.
Wichita State is 8-2, 2-1 as favorite; they start MVC play vs Evansville next week; Shockers won last three games, allowing 56 ppg- they won by a point at LSU Saturday. Tulsa lost three of last four games; they are 2-3 away from home, losing 69-67 at Ark-Little Rock in only true road game- they covered all three of their games as an underdog.
Kansas State shot 27% from floor, 3-19 from arc, in hideous 57-44 loss to Florida Saturday, just second loss in 11 games for K-State (2-3 when favored). Wildcats beat UNLV 95-80 in Vegas LY. Rebels lost two of last three games after 9-0 start; they're 5-1 away from home, losing by 8 at Louisville. MWC road underdogs of 10 or less points are 6-9.
Visitor won four of last six Pacific-Fresno State games; Tigers won two of last three visits here. Pacific is 6-4 playing #50 schedule; they're 2-4 on road, winning at UTEP/Nevada. Big West teams are 8-4 vs spread in any game where spread is 3 or less points. Fresno won last three games after 1-5 start; they're 3-1 at home, losing by 11 to Washington State.
Murray State is 14-1 in last 15 games vs UT-Martin, losing here couple years ago when UTM had Lester Hudson; Racers' last three wins here are by 6-4-32 points. Murray won four of last five games; they're 2-1 as a favorite, 2-2 on road, with wins by 8-2 points. UT-Martin lost seven of last eight games vs D-I teams; they're 2-2 as an underdog.
Tennessee Tech is 14-1 in last 15 games vs SE Missouri State, winning last seven played here by 1-2-15-11-17-27-14 points; Eagles won last five series games, with 82-73 the closest score. Tech won its first two OVC games by combined total of three points. OVC home favorites are 3-5 vs spread in league games. SEMo is 3-4-1 as an underdog.
Eastern Kentucky won last three games vs Tennessee State by 18-8-17 points; they won four of last five visits here, winning by 12-5-2-17 pts. Colonels are 2-5 vs D-I teams, 1-2 in OVC, losing by 2 to Murray State, 27 at Austin Peay. State is 3-6 vs D-I teams, covering all three games in OVC, with only loss by a point at Eastern Illinois.
Morehead State won four of last five games vs Austin Peay; last three were decided either by one point or in OT; Eagles lost three of last four here, losing by 11-1-4 points. Peay won first three OVC games by 18-4-27 points (3-0 as favorite)- they lost in OT at Memphis as a 13-pt dog. Morehead is 1-5 on road, getting upset at Tennessee State last game.
Northwestern is 8-0, playing #309 schedule; they won road games by 19 at Northern Illinois, 6 at Tex-Pan American and also beat Creighton and Georgia Tech at home (only two teams they played ranked higher than #178). St John's has nine seniors, but is just 6-3, losing twice as 14-point favorite; they split pair of games against only two top 100 teams they've played so far, losing by 5 at St Mary's, beating Arizona State by 9.
Tips and Trends
UNLV Runnin Rebels at Kansas St. Wildcats
RUNNIN REBELS: UNLV is 10-2 SU this year, but they have lost 2 of their past 3 games SU. The Runnin Rebels are likely to be a fringe Top 25 team all season long. UNLV is 4-7 ATS this season, with just one of those games coming as the listed underdog. UNLV lost that specific game on the road to Louisville. The Runnin Rebels lost last season to Kansas St, so they would love to exact some revenge. 5 different Runnin Rebels are averaging at least 9 PPG this year. G Chace Stanback leads UNLV with 13.7 PPG this year. The Runnin' Rebels are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against the Big 12. UNLV is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning SU record. The Runnin' Rebels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss. The Runnin' Rebels are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Runnin Rebels are 0-5 ATS last 5 non-conference games.
Over is 11-2 last 13 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Key Injuries - G Derrick Jasper (knee) is probable.
Projected Score: 65
WILDCATS: (-4.5, O/U 138) Kansas St. is currently ranked 11th in the nation, thanks to a 9-2 SU record. The Wildcats are coming off a rare loss, where they struggling mightily with their shooting in a loss to Florida. The Wildcats are just 3-4 ATS for the season, including 3-2 ATS as the listed favorite. Kansas St. is averaging 73.3 PPG while allowing just 62 PPG this season. G Jacob Pullen is averaging a team high 16.5 PPG this year. The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Tuesday games. Kansas st. is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss. Kansas St. is 19-8-2 ATS in their last 29 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%. The Wildcats are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS last 5 games against the Mountain West.
Under is 11-1 last 12 non-conference games.
Key Injuries - F Nino Williams (hamstring) is doubtful.
Projected Score: 76 (SIDE of the Day)