Tuesday's Best NCAAB Bet
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Missouri Tigers (-17, 159.5)
It wouldn’t matter if this game was played on the moon, but the Red Raiders are especially bad in opposing gyms. Texas Tech is a horrid 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in true road games this year, posting their only win at mediocre Iowa State. But that is by far the team’s brightest road spot this year as the team has struggled to be even competitive on the road.
“We’ll probably put together a tape of just bad plays or dumb plays,” Texas Tech coach Pat Knight said. “You had blockouts, missed layups, missed free throws, bad passes. It adds up. You just kill yourself.”
And there should be enough for several plays when they travel to Columbia. The Tigers are a perfect 15-0 at home this year and a strong 7-3 ATS in lined games. Overall, the team is a 27-11 ATS in its past 38 home games.
Missouri also has owned the Red Raiders in recent meetings, posting a 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS record in the team’s past five clashes.
Keep a close eye on the injury report for Texas Tech as well. The team’s up-tempo attack could take a big hit if Mike Singletary is unable to go. The senior guard is averaging 13.2 points per game and dropped a stunning 33 points in the team’s only road win, but was limited to just four minutes in the team’s most recent game and is expected to be a game-time decision.
Pick: Missouri
UNC hosts Wake Forest in ACC betting
By: Michael Robinson
The North Carolina Tar Heels are finding different ways to win as they host the Wake Forest Demon Deacons on Tuesday night.
The Tar Heels (18-6 straight-up, 12-9 against the spread) are a re-energized team and looking to finish out the ACC season strong after an 8-2 SU start.
No. 19 North Carolina is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in its last seven games. The only blemish was a 79-73 loss at Duke last Wednesday. The team blew a 14-point halftime lead, with Duke guard Nolan Smith having an All-American performance (34 points). The one consolation was the ‘cover’ as 10½-point road ‘dogs.
The next game was Saturday at Clemson. The Tigers are the ACC’s leader in scoring defense (60.2 PPG) and it was a tight, low scoring affair throughout. The difference from the Duke game was the Tar Heels’ young players didn’t fold under pressure, getting a 64-62 win as two-point ‘dogs.
Coach Roy Williams was happy to see his team grind out a low-scoring win for a change. He has a new point guard in freshman Kendall Marshall, who took over for the struggling Larry Drew seven games ago. Drew has subsequently left the program and Marshall has performed admirably (8.3 PPG, 6.0 APG) as the starter.
The ‘under’ is now 2-0 in North Carolina’s last two games, scoring 68.5 PPG. The ‘over’ was 5-0 in the previous five, with the offense able to free-flow at 85.6 PPG.
The ‘over’ is also 5-2-1 In North Carolina’s home games this year. It averages 82.3 PPG there as opposed to 74.8 PPG in road and neutral site contests (the ‘under’ going 9-4).
The Demon Deacons were expected to struggle this year after losing Al-Farouq Aminu (15.8 PPG, 10.7 RPG) and Ishmael Smith (13.2 PPG, 6.0 APG). That’s come to fruition at 8-17 SU and 7-13-1 ATS, both low marks in the conference.
Coach Jeff Bzdelik has struggled big-time in his first year after replacing the fired Dino Gaudio. The team has a four-game losing streak and is 2-13 SU (4-8-1 ATS) in its last 15 games. That includes conference numbers of 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS.
The last game was Sunday at home against NC State, an 80-55 debacle as 5½-point underdogs. Leading scorer Travis McKie (12.5 PPG) was the only player in double-digits with 15. He’s one of three freshmen starting in addition to guard J.T. Terrell and center Carson Desrosiers.
Sophomore guard C.J. Harris (11.2 PPG) was supposed to be the star offensively, but has yet to take the next step. Wake Forest is 10th in the ACC in scoring (68.8 PPG) and last in defense (76.9 PPG) and scoring margin (minus 8.1 per game).
The Demon Deacons are 0-7 SU (2-5 ATS) in true road games, with the ‘over’ going 6-1.
This looks like a bad matchup for Wake Forest once again. North Carolina has the twin towers of Tyler Zeller (14.3 PPG. 7.2 RPG) and John Henson (11.3 PPG, 8.8 RPG) and is second in the conference in rebounding margin (plus 5.3 per game). Fab freshman forward Harrison Barnes (13.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG) also helps in that regard.
Desrosiers is the only Demon Deacons starter above 6-foot-7. Junior center Tony Woods would have helped, but was given his release back in October after an assault charge. The Deacons are last in the league in rebounding margin (minus 4.4 per game), which should be a major issue on Tuesday.
These teams have split the last four meetings SU and ATS, with North Carolina winning 77-68 as seven-point road ‘dogs last year.
There are no significant injuries for either team, although Wake Forest just dismissed seldom-used freshman forward Melvin Tabb.
ESPN3.com will have the 5 p.m. (PT) tip-off from the Dean E. Smith Center.
Ohio State back from loss to host Spartans
By: Willie Bee
Tuesday night's Big Ten matchup in Columbus between Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan State Spartans was circled by college basketball fans and bettors alike this past November. A showdown of two of the favorites to win the Big Ten before the campaign started, the lone meeting of the regular season between the two foes held a lot of intrigue and importance.
It still does, only now for different reasons.
Ohio State is coming off its one and only defeat of the season, a 71-67 setback at Wisconsin this past Saturday. Coasting along with a 15-point lead early in the second half, the Buckeyes fell out of their game while the Badgers started to rain threes to climb back in the contest.
Wisconsin's Jordan Taylor led all scorers with 27 points, hitting five of his eight from beyond the arc. William Buford paced OSU with 21 points while freshman Jared Sullinger added 19 to go with 12 boards, his 12th double-double this season and third straight.
The defeat left the Buckeyes with a 24-1 straight-up mark, 11-11 against the spread, and marked their sixth 'over' in the last nine Big Ten contests.
How Thad Matta's kids respond after their first loss is the big question for Ohio State. There's always going to be disappointment following that initial defeat after such a remarkable run of wins. Getting his team focused just on this game could be difficult with Wisconsin still on their minds and Purdue just a few days ahead on the slate.
If Michigan State (14-10 SU, 7/16 ATS) was having the season that was forecast by many, there wouldn't be much danger of the Buckeyes looking ahead to the Boilermakers. A full five games back of Ohio State in the Big Ten standings at 6-6, the Spartans have dropped five of their last seven – 1-6 ATS in that span – and sit 48th in the latest Ken Pomeroy rankings after beginning the season ranked second by the coaches.
The Spartans practically find themselves in must-win situations from here on out. A huge upset over the Buckeyes would surely help matters, but since we're talking about a team that needed overtime at home to beat Indiana, just covering the spread Tuesday might be State's best hope.
Tom Izzo's guys took the weekend off after winning and covering this past Thursday at home in a 75-57 triumph versus Penn State. Kalin Lucas' game-high 24 led the way for the Spartans while Draymond Green contributed 15 points and 14 boards, his eighth double-double this campaign.
To tell you how low this team has sunk in the eyes of many, the preseason No. 2 squad closed as just a 6½-point favorite versus the Nittany Lions. It was the first winning odds ticket for Spartans backers since a 65-62 win at Northwestern as 2½-point chalk on Jan. 3.
The Buckeyes won the only get-together between the two schools last season, topping the Spartans on the road in East Lansing as five-point underdogs, 74-67. That left the schools even-Steven in the last four meetings, 2-2 both SU and ATS.
ESPN will broadcast Tuesday's game from Value City Arena with the tip slated for a few minutes past 6 p.m. (PT).
Ohio State's trip to Purdue on Sunday is followed by a quick return ride home to host Illinois next Tuesday (Feb. 22). Michigan State's schedule has the Spartans home on Saturday to meet Illinois.
College Basketball Knowledge
Drexel won four of last five games, but covered just two of last six when favored; Dragons won two of last three visits here- road team is 4-2 last six series games. NC-Wilmington is 4-3 at home in CAA- they won last game in OT at 0-15 Towson, after being down 22 in second half. CAA home underdogs of 4 or less points are 1-8 vs spread.
VCU is 11-2 in last 13 games vs George Mason, beating Patriots in last two CAA tourneys; Mason lost last five visits here, by 24-8-14-12-5 points, but they've won last 11 games overall, covering last 10 games as a favorite. Rams are 12-3 in CAA but split last four games; they're 2-2 as a dog. CAA home teams are 6-19-1 when spread is less than 4 points.
Underdogs are 10-1 vs spread in Ohio's MAC games, 5-0 when Bobcats are on road; Ohio won five of last six games, but are just 2-3 on road in MAC, with losses by 12-6-2 points- they lost 73-68 (-2) to Buffalo at home, after leading by 18 at half. MAC favorites of 7+ points are 9-12 vs spread. Buffalo lost two of its last three games.
Kentucky beat Mississippi State twice LY, both times in OT; its been five years since Wildcats beat State by more than 6 points. Kentucky is 2-2 as SEC home favorite, winning by 24-38-6-12 points. Bulldogs lost last game at Auburn after leading by 18; they scored only 62 ppg in last four games. SEC home favorites of 11+ points are 6-9 vs spread.
Missouri is 2-3 in last five games, but covered last four games as home favorite, winning by 8-16-33-16-23 points- they won last three games vs Texas Tech by 11-21-5 points, winning last two played here by 13-11 points. Tech covered five of last six games, losing last three, by 22-16-3 points. Double digit home favorites are 5-6 vs spread in Big 12 games.
Virginia Tech (+5) held Maryland to 36% from floor in easy 74-57 road win Jan 20; four of last six series games were decided by 6 or less points, with Terps winning here LY in double OT. Tech is 5-2 last seven games, 3-2 as home favorite. Maryland is 1-3 in ACC games decided by seven or less points. Faves are 10-5-1 in ACC when spread is 4 or less points.
Villanova won its last eight games vs Seton Hall, winning last three here by 14-9-4ot points; Wildcats are hampered with sharp-shooting Stokes injured (toe)- they're 2-4 in last six games, blowing 10-point lead in 2:52 at Rutgers in last road game. Big East home underdogs of 5 or less points are 6-3 vs spread. Pirates covered four of their last five games.
Wichita State is 7-0 as MVC road favorite this season- they pounded on Evansville 91-57 (-12) in MVC opener, shooting 62% from floor, going 11-23 on arc. Aces are 7-3 in last ten games, covering five of last seven as an underdog. MVC home underdogs of less than 6 points are 9-6 vs spread. Evansville won its last five home games.
Butler is just 3-4 on Horizon road, 1-5 as road favorite, winning by 12-2-24 points on foreign soil; underdogs covered six of Butler's Horizon League games. Horizon League home dogs of 5 or less points are 9-8 vs spread. Green Bay lost its last three games overall, but this is first home game this month- they've won four of their last five at home.
St John's won last three Big East games; they're 3-3 on road in league, with losses by 15-25-25 points. Marquette is 4-1 as Big East home fave, with home wins by 5-22-30-6 points (lost to UConn), but they've lost four of last six gamespverall. Big East home favorites of 7 or less points are 19-21 vs spread. At this point, a bigger game for Marquette.
Ohio State lost its first game Saturday; they're 2-3 as home favorite in Big 11 games, with three of five home wins by 9 or less points. OSU is 6-4 in last ten games vs Michigan State, winning three of last five played here. Spartans are 1-9 vs spread in last ten games, 0-3 as an underdog in Big 11 games. Big 11 double digit home favorites are 5-9 vs spread.
UNLV covered one of last seven games, is 1-5 as MWC home favorite; Rebels (-11) won 64-52 at Air Force Jan 15, their 6th win in row vs Air Force, which lost last four visits here by 10-7-3-10 points. MWC home favorites of 15+ points are 2-6 vs spread. Falcons are 5-0 vs spread as a MWC road dog, losing road games by 10-13-3 points, with two wins.
Austin Peay won seven in row, 14 of last 15 vs Jacksonville State; they are 6-1 here, winning last three visits by 11-12-2 points; Governors won first meeting this year 80-66 (-13) at home. OVC road favorites of 6 or less points are 11-5 vs spread. Gamecocks covered four of last five as an underdog; five of their seven OVC home losses are by 7 or less points.
Tips and Trends
Mississippi St. Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats
BULLDOGS: Mississippi St. is hoping for another competitive game against Kentucky tonight, considering both meetings last season went to OT. The Bulldogs are starting to play better, but they aren't living up to the expectations placed on them before the season started. The Bulldogs are 13-11 SU and 5-13-2 ATS overall this year. The 5-13-2 ATS record shows you just how overrated this Mississippi St. team has been this year. The Bulldogs are 2-4 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in true road game this season. Mississippi St. is 2-7 ATS as the listed underdog this year. G Dee Bost has only played in 10 games for the Bulldogs this season, but he's averaging team highs of 17.7 PPG and 5.2 APG. G Ravern Johnson is averaging 17 PPG and 3.6 RPG this year for Mississippi St. The Bulldogs are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall. Mississippi St. is 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss. The Bulldogs are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 Tuesday games. Mississippi St. is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS last 5 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%.
Under is 4-1 last 5 games overall.
Key Injuries - F Taylor Luczak (flu) is questionable.
Projected Score: 65 (SIDE of the Day)
WILDCATS: (-18, O/U 140) Kentucky has lost 3 of their past 4 games overall, each of which came on the road. The Wildcats are a completely different team at home than anywhere else. The young Wildcats have yet to lose SU at home this year. Kentucky is 17-7 SU and 9-10 ATS overall this season. The Wildcats are currently ranked 22nd in the nation. Kentucky is 11-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in home games this season. Kentucky is 3-3 ATS as a double digit favorite this year. The Wildcats are 3-7 ATS against fellow SEC opponents this season. F Terrence Jones is one of the best freshmen in the country, as he's leading the Wildcats with 17.9 PPG and 9 RPG this season. G Brandon Knight is averaging 17.4 PPG and a team high 3.7 APG this year. The Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a road winning percentage less than .400%. Kentucky is 45-22 ATS in their last 67 games following an ATS loss. The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Kentucky is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the SEC.
Wildcats are 7-2 ATS last 9 games following a SU loss.
Under is 4-0 last 4 home games.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 74
Michigan St. Spartans at Ohio St. Buckeyes
SPARTANS: Michigan St. has lost 5 of their past 7 games SU, as their nightmare season progressively gets worse. The Spartans have been the biggest disappointment in all of college basketball this year. Michigan St. is 14-10 SU and 7-16 ATS overall this season. The Spartans are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in true road games this season. Michigan St. is 2-3 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Before winning their last game both SU and ATS, the Spartans had lost their 9 prior games ATS. Revenge is on the minds of Michigan St. tonight, as they have lost the past 2 meetings SU to the Buckeyes. F Draymond Green is averaging a team high 13.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, and 4.2 APG this year. G Durrell Summers is averaging 13.2 PPG and 4.3 RPG this season for the Spartans. The Spartans are 15-35-2 ATS in their last 52 Tuesday games. Michigan St. is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. The Spartans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games against a team with a winning SU record. The Spartans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against the Big Ten. Michigan St. is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%. The Spartans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Spartans are 1-9 ATS last 10 games overall.
Under is 7-0 last 7 games following a SU win.
Key Injuries - F Delvon Roe (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 57
BUCKEYES: (-12.5, O/U 136.5) Ohio St. is no longer perfect, as they lost to Wisconsin in their last game. The young Buckeyes will have to bounce back quickly, as they have a hungry Michigan St. team to deal with tonight. The Buckeyes are 24-1 SU and 11-11 ATS overall this year. Ohio St. is no longer ranked #1 in the nation, as they come in at #3 this week. The Buckeyes are 16-0 SU and 6-7 ATS in home games this season. Ohio St. is 3-1 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 PTS or more this season. Freshman sensation F Jared Sullinger is averaging team highs of 18 PPG and 10.3 RPG this year. G William Buford is averaging 13.9 PPG this season, while shooting better than 43% from the 3 point line this year. F David Lighty is averaging 12.3 PPG and 3.4 APG while providing invaluable senior leadership. The Buckeyes are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 Tuesday games. Ohio St. is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. The Buckeyes are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games against a team with a road winning percentage less than .400%.
Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS last 10 games against a team with a winning SU record.
Over is 11-4 last 15 games against the Big Ten Conference.
Key Injuries - F J.D. Weatherspoon (eligibility) is out.
Projected Score: 70 (UNDER-Total of the Day)