Tuesday's Best NCAAB Bet
Iowa State Cyclones at Texas Longhorns (-17.5)
If there is one thing the Longhorns know how to do, it’s rebound from a loss. A pathetic effort in a three-point defeat at Nebraska should give the team plenty of motivation.
Texas has followed up a SU loss with a SU victory by an average of 27.3 points per game in its three earlier losses this year. The Longhorns also know how to bounce back from a mediocre effort - in consecutive lined games, the team is 3-0 ATS following an ATS loss.
"We don't want to let down, we gotta keep playing," Texas coach Rick Barnes said. "There's so much basketball left to play. We can never allow ourselves to get complacent. Basketball is such a game of habit. We're pushing, trying to get better. That's been the message from Day 1."
And the Cyclones might not have enough gas left in the tank to take down the Longhorns. Iowa State has dropped nine straight games and is a mere 2-7 ATS over that span.
Even worse, the team expects to again be without forward Jamie Vanderbeken. The native of Canada averages 11.3 points and 5.2 rebounds per game, but is doubtful against the Longhorns as he has missed the past two contests with a badly sprained ankle.
“They’ll be out to prove themselves all over again,” Iowa State guard Scott Christopherson said. “We’ll have to find a way to combat that, too.”
Pick: Texas
NCAA Betting Preview: Illinois at Ohio State
By: Michael Robinson
The Ohio State Buckeyes have hit a bump in the road as they return home for a Tuesday night encounter with the Illinois Fighting Illini.
Ohio State (25-2 straight-up, 11-13 against the spread) was undefeated and the nation’s No. 1 team just nine days ago and some online sportsbooks were even laying odds on a perfect season.
Now fast forward to today. The third-ranked Buckeyes have lost two of their last three games, at Wisconsin (71-67 as two-point underdogs) on February 12 and at Purdue (76-63 as one-point ‘dogs) this past Sunday.
Ohio State has also failed to ‘cover’ its last two home games, going 1-5 ATS in the last six games overall.
The Wisconsin game was marked by a 15-point blown lead in the second half. The Purdue contest was highlighted by an incredible individual effort by E’Twaun Moore, a career-high 38 points (13-of-18 from the field).
The 139 combined points scored against Purdue went just ‘over’ the 138-point total. The ‘over’ is 3-0 in Ohio State’s last three road games and 8-2 away this season.
The ‘under’ is 3-1 in Ohio State’s last four home games and 9-5 at home this season.
The question remains whether OSU’s losses are an aberration or a sign of a bigger problem. SBG Global currently has Ohio State as the second-favorite to win March Madness (plus 450), trailing only Duke (plus 300).
It’s hard to fault Ohio State for losing at two of the best home teams in the country. Purdue and Wisconsin are a combined 30-0 SU and 18-5 ATS at home this season.
One potential worry spot in that marquee player Jared Sullinger (18 PPG, 10 RPG) is a freshman and hasn’t been through the rigors of March Madness. However, that didn’t hurt champion Syracuse and Carmelo Anthony back in 2003 and Sullinger is surrounded by four starting upperclassmen.
The Fighting Illini (17-10 SU, 13-13-1 ATS) are 7-7 SU in the conference, trailing Ohio State (12-2 SU), Purdue (11-3 SU) and Wisconsin (10-4 SU). They’re also an NCAA tourney bubble team, so every game is vitally important.
Illinois has played very uneven basketball the last month, going 3-5 SU and 3-4-1 ATS. That includes losses at Northwestern and Indiana. The latest game was Saturday at Michigan State, a 61-57 loss and ‘push’ as four-point underdogs. Illinois guard Demetri McCamey scored 15 points, but the team shot just 37.3 percent from the field.
The 118 combined points scored went way ‘under’ the 135½-point total. The ‘under’ is 5-2 in Illinois’ last seven games and 7-3 in its last 10 road games.
Illinois hosted Ohio State back on Jan. 22. Sullinger had 27 points and 16 rebounds for a 73-68 rally win and ‘cover’ as 3½-point favorites. McCamey (14.5 PPG) had just five points on 2-of-11 shooting. The team needs a consistent second scorer and has trouble winning when McCamey struggles.
Coach Bruce Weber would seem to have a good matchup inside against Sullinger with 7-foot-1 Mike Tisdale and 6-foot-9 Mike Davis. However, neither is a physical player and both can be out-muscled by the wide-body freshman. Davis (11.6 PPG) is the second-leading scorer and needs a big game on Tuesday.
The Fighting Illini lost 73-57 at Ohio State last year as 9½-point ‘dogs and are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Columbus.
There are no significant injuries to report for either team.
ESPN will have the 4 p.m. (PT) tip-off from Value City Arena, right before SEC’s Tennessee at No. 18 Vanderbilt.
Volunteers, Commodores meet in Nashville
By: Adam Markowitz
The Vanderbilt Commodores and Tennessee Volunteers are both trying to make some noise in the SEC East this year, and they'll both have a shot in NCAA basketball betting action on Tuesday when they meet at Memorial Gym.
Tip-off from the Music City will come at 6:00 p.m. (PT) in a game that will be seen on ESPN just following their telecast of Big Ten rivals Illinois and Ohio State.
Tennessee head coach Bruce Pearl has to be scratching his head right now about how good (or bad) his team really is. Sure, there are some great wins against teams like the Pitt Panthers and the Villanova Wildcats, but since starting the season 7-0, the Vols are below .500, and they have some absolutely atrocious losses.
One of those defeats came at home against the Georgia Bulldogs this past Saturday, as the 69-63 decision is sure to knock Tennessee down a notch in the brackets.
The good news is that Scotty Hopson is really on his game right now. Over the course of his last three games, Hopson has put up 22, 23 and 32 points. He's averaging 17.4 PPG on the campaign and starting to come on strong for the push towards the NCAA Tournament.
The bad news is that he really isn't getting all that much help. Sure, Tobias Harris is averaging 14.4 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, but he can't do it alone either. Beyond that, there just aren't enough scoring options for this team to do some big time damage in the SEC and NCAA Tournaments.
The Commodores have won five games in a row and have to feel like they're in great shape for the remaining of the season even though the schedule is very tough. Road wins against the Georgia Bulldogs and Auburn Tigers last week weren't the types of wins that make you go "Wow!" But they were still road wins in conference, which are never easy to pick up.
Unlike the case with the Volunteers, Vanderbilt has all of the scoring options that it needs. John Jenkins is one of best in the SEC, and the duel between he and Hopson should be a great one. Jenkins is shooting 42.3 percent from downtown and 46.5 percent from the field, and he is just a tick under 20 PPG.
The key man might be the one right in the middle of the offense. Festus Ezeli was held down by the Auburn Tigers on Saturday, but he has 12 blocked shots over the course of his last two games, raising his average up to 2.46 per game on the campaign. Ezeli is also averaging 12.4 PPG and 6.2 RPG.
Keep an eye on Jeffrey Taylor. He came up big with 20 points and 10 boards against Auburn to lead the way on Saturday, and he is good for 14.5 PPG on the average night. He's a streaky shooter though, knocking down just 43.6 percent from his shots.
Earlier this season, Tennessee came up big with a big time 67-64 victory over the 'Dores. The Volunteers have done well in this series, going 14-6 ATS and 12-8 SU over the course of the last 20 meetings in this series dating back to 2001. Even here in Nashville since 1996, Tennessee is 9-6 against the NCAA basketball betting lines.
Vandy looking for revenge
By Brian Edwards
After suffering just its second loss of the season Sunday at Purdue, Ohio State faces a quick turn-around Tuesday night when it hosts Illinois at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. As of early this morning, most betting shops had the Buckeyes installed as 10 ½-point favorites with a total of 135.
Illinois (17-10 straight up, 13-14 against the spread) is in bounce-back mode after losing Saturday at Michigan State by a 61-57 count as a 3 ½-point underdog. In defeat, Demetri McCamey had 15 points, five assists, four rebounds and a pair of blocked shots.
The Illini are in the midst of a 4-7 slide both SU and ATS, adding even more emphasis to tonight’s Big Ten showdown in Columbus. With an RPI of 41, Bruce Weber’s team is still ‘in’ the NCAA Tournament (if the season ended today) but its seeding will start to look like one of the double-digit variety with another loss.
Ohio State (25-2 SU, 11-13 ATS) is still a No. 1 seed but another loss or two could change that. The Buckeyes are unbeaten in 17 home games but are just 6-8 versus the number. They are 1-4 ATS in their five Big Ten home games as double-digit favorites.
South Carolina will be missing Lakeem Jackson for a third straight time tonight when it hosts Ole Miss tonight. Jackson averages 8.2 points, 5.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game.
As of early this morning, most spots had the Rebels listed as 1 ½-point road favorites. Ole Miss (17-10 SU, 12-11 ATS) has won four of its last six games, but it was on the short end of a 71-58 decision Saturday at arch-rival Mississippi St.
South Carolina (13-12 SU, 9-12 ATS) has lost five in a row and seven of its last eight. The Gamecocks have been mediocre at home, going 10-5 SU and 4-7 ATS.
Andy Kennedy's team has had the better of the head-to-head rivalry recently, as the Rebels are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against South Carolina. The 'over' is 6-2 in the last eight encounters.
The other SEC game on tonight’s card will go down in Nashville, where Vanderbilt will be looking for revenge when it hosts Tennessee. When these teams met in Knoxville, the Volunteers rallied from 17 points down to beat the Commodores 67-64 as 1 ½-point home favorites. Senior guard Scotty Hopson scored a team-high 16 points, while freshman forward Tobias Harris finished with 15 points and nine rebounds.
As of early this morning, most books were listing Vandy (20-6 SU, 13-8-1 ATS) as a 6 ½-point favorite with a total of 143 ½.
Kevin Stallings’ team has won five in a row, including Saturday’s 77-60 win at Auburn as an 11-point road favorite. John Jenkins scored 22 points to pace the ‘Dores, who got a double-double out of Jeffery Taylor when he scored 20 points and pulled down 10 rebounds.
Tennessee (16-11 SU, 12-14 ATS) has lost four of its last five games both SU and ATS, including Saturday’s 69-63 home loss to Georgia as a 4 ½-point ‘chalk.’ Hopson had 32 points in the losing effort.
Vandy has won 14 of its 15 home games but is just 5-6 ATS. Meanwhile, Bruce Pearl’s team owns a 4-2 spread record in six games as a road underdog (5-2 ATS if you want to count a six-point ‘dog situation against Villanova at MSG in NYC).
With an RPI of 31, UT isn't in any trouble yet. That's because the Vols have three scalps of RPI Top 25 teams and a 5-4 record against RPI Top 50 squads.
The ‘under’ is on a lucrative 9-2 run in Tennessee games. The Vols have seen the ‘under’ go 14-11 overall. The ‘over’ is 12-10 overall for Vandy, 8-3 in its home outings.
Tip-off at Memorial Gymnasium in Music City is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
The last game to come off the board will be TCU at Utah. Most spots had the Utes as 7 ½-point favorites early this morning. The Mountain West Network will have television coverage at 10:00 p.m. Eastern.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Kansas destroyed Oklahoma St. 92-65 as a 17-point home favorite last night in Lawrence. Marcus Morris scored a game-high 27 points and Elijah Johnson had 15 points and three assists as KU’s new starting point guard. Johnson replaced Tyshawn Taylor, who was suspended indefinitely by head coach Bill Self on Monday.
College of Charleston stayed hot with last night’s easy 75-49 win over Samford as a 17-point home favorite. Even with starting forward Jeremy Simmons out of the lineup with a blood clot in his arm, the Cougars are in the midst of a 6-0-1 ATS surge. Don’t be shocked if Bobby Cremins’ team is this year’s Cinderella in the NCAA Tournament.
Syracuse picked up a big win last night at Villanova. The Orange captured a 69-64 win as a four-point underdog, hooking up money-line backers with a plus-150 payout (risk $100 to win $150). Scoop Jardine was the catalyst with 20 points, six assists and four rebounds, while Rick Jackson chipped in with 18 points for the ‘Cuse.
UCF's up-and-down squad could be on the rise again. The Knights started the year with 14 consecutive wins, including triumphs over in-state rivals from BCS conferences like South Florida, Miami and Florida. But then they lost eight straight outright. UCF's ATS slide was 11 straight before winning last week at Tulane. The Knights have added two more covers for a three-game ATS winning streak following yesterday's 74-68 win at UTEP as eight-point underdogs. Donnie Jones's team hooked up money-line backers with a plus-320 payout at the Las Vegas Hilton (risk $100 to win $320).
vegasinsider.com.
College basketball Knowledge
LaSalle lost four of last five games; they're 3-3 as road dog, losing away games by 5-3-21 points. Xavier won its last four games, with only one win by more than 8 points; they're 2-4 as A-14 home favorite, winning by 29-5-11-7-8-7 points. Double digit home favorites are 9-13 vs spread in A-14 games. Visitors are 6-1 vs spread in last seven Xavier games.
Virginia Tech lost its last two road games, at Boston College/Virginia-- they're 2-4 overall on ACC road, with wins by 17 at Maryland, by 8 at NC State. Wake Forest lost its last six games (2-4 vs spread); they're 2-4 as ACC home underdog, losing by 19-24-1-25-18 points, with win over Virginia. ACC home favorites of more than 8 points are 8-14 vs spread. Wake (+19) lost 94-65 to Tech in Blacksburg back on Jan 15.
Ohio State is 1-5 vs spread in last six games, 2-4 as home favorite, with wins by 3-3-22-23-9-10 points. Illinois lost five of its last six on road, losing by 2-10-3-1-4 points. Buckeyes (-3.5) outscored Illini 27-8 from foul line, won 73-68 at Illinois Jan 22, with Sullinger going for 27/16. Double digit home favorites are 5-11 vs spread in Big 11 play. .
South Carolina lost its last five games (1-4 vs spread), losing three times by 18+ points; Gamecocks lost their last four home games, by 9-15-19-4 points. Ole Miss is 2-5 vs spread as SEC favorite, 2-4 SU on SEC road, winning by 27 at LSU, 9 at Arkansas. Underdogs are 9-6-2 vs spread in SEC games where spread is 2 or less points.
Northern Iowa lost four of last five games; they're 0-4 vs spread in last four home games; Panthers (-3.5) got hammered 70-45 at Indiana State Jan 7, trailing 18-2 at one point, 38-15 at half. MVC home favorites of more than 5 points are 11-19-1 vs spread. Sycamores covered six of last seven road games- they're 6-3 vs spread as an MVC underdog.
Illinois State (+3.5) won 79-78 in OT at Bradley Jan 26, game they once trailed 23-8; Redbirds lost their last six games, covering one of last five-- they're 1-3 as an MVC favorite. Bradley is 4-2 in last six games after an 11-game losing streak- they're 4-4 as an MVC road dog. Faves are 12-8 vs spread in MVC games where spread is 3 or less points, 6-3 at home.
Iowa State lost its last nine games (2-7 vs spread); Cyclones are 1-4 vs spread in last five road games, losing away games by 1-9ot-33-26-23-5 points- three of their last four losses were by 6 or less points. Texas is 3-3 as Big 12 home favorite, winning home games by 20-21-13-16-9-18 points. SEC home favorites of more than 13 points are 6-4 vs spread.
Vanderbilt won its last five games (4-1 vs spread); they're 1-4 as home favorite in SEC games, winning at home by 7-10-18-4-4 points, losing to Arkansas. Commodores (+1.5) lost 67-64 in Knoxville Jan 15, turning ball over 21 times in game they led by 10 at half. SEC home favorites of more than 4 points are 15-19. Tennessee lost four of last five games.
Minnesota (+7) lost 71-62 at Michigan State Dec 31, game Gophers led by 6 at half- they've lost nine of last 10 games vs Spartans. Both teams are struggling; Gophers lost five of last six games, losing last two home games by 13-9 points. Big 11 home favorites of 5 or less points are 14-6-1 vs spread. Michigan State lost its last six road games.
Louisville lost five of last six road games, with only win in double OT at UConn; Cardinals are 5-4 as Big East favorite, 1-1 on road. Rutgers lost six of last seven games but covered seven of last nine, including its last five games as an underdog. Big East home underdogs of 5 or less points are 7-4-1. Rutgers is 3-4 at home in Big East, losing by 8-9-3-5 points.
Memphis lost to Rice for first time Saturday, snapping 4-game winning streak; Tigers are 8-4 in C-USA, but have only two wins by more than six points (by 16 over Marshall, 16 over UCF). Houston lost four of its last five games; they're 4-2 as C-USA road dog, losing away games by 12-8ot-4-5ot-12. Double digit home favorites are 2-10-1 in C-USA.
Utah (+4.5) won 75-62 at TCU Jan 22; Frogs were 3-13 from arc, 5-12 on foul line. Utes are just 2-4 at home in MWC, 1-1 as a home favorite. TCU lost its last ten games; they're 2-4 as MWC road dog, losing away games by 34-10-16-25-7-10 points. MWC home favorites of 8 or less points are 9-5 vs spread. Lord help TCU when they go to the Big East.
Weber State won/covered its last six Big Sky games, though they lost at San Jose by 16 in Bracket Buster game; Wildcats (-11.5) won 71-67 in first meeting vs Idaho State Jan 15. Big Sky home underdogs of less than 8 points are 10-5 vs spread. Bengals won three of their last four games, are 3-3 at home in Big Sky, with home losses by 7-10-19 points.
Tips and Trends
Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio St. Buckeyes
FIGHTING ILLINI: Illinois has had a rocky stretch of games, as they've lost 6 of their last 10 games SU. The Fighting Illini are are having a hard time dealing handling overconfidence and overall work ethic this season. Illinois has already lost once this season to Ohio St, so the Buckeyes are likely to get the Fighting Illini's best punch tonight. Illinois is 17-10 SU and 13-13-1 ATS overall this season. The Illini are 4-5 SU and 5-3 ATS in true road settings this year. Illinois is 2-2 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Tonight represents the largest underdog price the Illini have faced all season. G Demetri McCamey is averaging team highs of 14.5 PPG and 6.2 APG for Illinois this year. F Mike Davis is averaging 11.6 PPG and a team high 6.9 RPG this season. C Mike Tisdale is averaging 9.5 PPG and 6.5 RPG this season for the Illini. The Fighting Illini are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 7 to 12.5 points. Illinois is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
Fighting Illini are 8-3-1 ATS last 12 games as a road underdog.
Under is 10-1 last 11 Tuesday games.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 61
BUCKEYES: (-10.5, O/U 135) Ohio St. has lost 2 of their last 3 games SU, which accounts for their entire season worth of losses. The Buckeyes are still ranked 3rd in the nation, and are likely to be a #1 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. The Buckeyes are 25-2 SU and 11-13 ATS overall this year. Ohio St. is a perfect 17-0 SU and 6-8 ATS in home games this season. The Buckeyes are 6-11 ATS as a double digit favorite overall this year. F Jared Sullinger has been a manchild in the paint this year for Ohio St. Sullinger is averaging team highs of 18 PPG and 9.9 RPG this season. F David Lighty has had a great all around season for the Buckeyes this year, as he's averaging 12.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG, and 3.4 APG. The Buckeyes are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 Tuesday games. Ohio St. is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss. The Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite between 7 and 12.5 points. Ohio St. is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Buckeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the Big Ten Conference.
Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record.
Over is 12-5 last 17 games against the Big Ten Conference.
Key Injuries - F J.D. Weatherspoon (eligibility) is out.
Projected Score: 77 (SIDE of the Day)
Tennessee Volunteers at Vanderbilt Commodores
VOLUNTEERS: Tennessee has lost 4 of their last 5 games, and there are many question marks surrounding them. The Volunteers are just 16-11 SU this year, and that record is unlikely to get them into the NCAA Tournament. With so little time remaining this year, it's vital that Tennessee go on a winning streak. The Volunteers are 12-14 ATS this year, including 5-2 ATS as the listed underdog. Tennessee is 3-5 SU and 5-4 ATS in true road games this year. G Scotty Hopson is leading the Volunteers in scoring this year, as he's averaging 17.4 PPG this year. F Tobias Harris is averaging 14.4 PPG and 7.4 RPG this year. G Melvin Goins is averaging 7.7 PPG and a team high 3 APG this season for the Tennessee. The Volunteers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Tennessee is 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU loss. The Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games. Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning SU record. The Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the SEC.
Volunteers are 6-2 ATS last 8 games as an underdog.
Under is 7-1 last 8 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Key Injuries - F Renaldo Woolridge (ankle) is probable.
Projected Score: 71
COMMODORES: (-6.5, O/U 143) Vanderbilt has won 5 straight games, and they are about to play one of their most important games in recent memory. The Commodores have already lost to Tennessee this season, and they've like nothing more than to return the favor. Vanderbilt is 20-6 SU and 13-8-1 ATS overall this season. The Commodores are doing everything they can to ensure their best seeding possible heading into the NCAA Tournament. Vanderbilt is 14-1 SU and 5-6 ATS in home games this season. The Commodores are 0-3 ATS as a home favorite between 6.5 and 9 PTS this year. G John Jenkins is averaging a team high 19.9 PPG this season for Vanderbilt. F Jeffery Taylor is averaging 14.5 PPG and 5.7 RPG this season for the Commodores. G Brad Tinsley is averaging 10.8 PPG and a team high 4.4 APG this season. The Commodores are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games. Vanderbilt is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the SEC. The Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning SU record. Vanderbilt is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite up to 6.5 points.
Commodores are 5-1 ATS last 6 games overall.
Over is 6-1 last 7 home games.
Key Injuries - F Aaron Noll (foot) is out.
Projected Score: 79 (OVER-Total of the Day)