Tuesday's Best NCAAB Bet
Alabama Crimson Tide at Florida Gators (-6, 123.5)
The Crimson Tide simply can’t shoot from beyond the arc. The team is an abysmal 22-of-86 from downtown the past seven games and is making a mere 30 percent of its triples on the season. That’s bad news for a team that relies so heavily on its defense to win games.
Alabama is fourth in the country in points allowed per game (58.2) and fourth in opponents field goal percentage (37.3) and needs to play that well to win. The team is a horrendous 3-7 SU when giving up more than 60 points. Don’t fall for the team’s 45.2 percent shooting percentage either – the Crimson Tide have made nearly 110 dunks this season, meaning more than 15 percent of its baskets are slams around the rim.
That’s not the only troubling issue on offense. Senior Senario Hillman started the team’s first 10 games but has played sparingly since and was scoreless in 12 minutes in the team’s most recent game.
Hillman needs just 13 points to reach 1,000 for his career and just six steals to become the program’s all-time leader. However, he appears to be so far in the dog house, neither of those milestones are a given.
"He's so active," Alabama coach Anthony Grant said. "He can do so many things, and he's starting to get a comfort level from an offensive standpoint as well as far as what he can and can't do. ... He's playing good basketball, and we certainly need him to continue."
He can’t play though, if he’s never on the floor.
Pick: Florida
NCAA Betting Preview: Illinois at Purdue
By: Brad Young
March Madness begins with conference play, and progresses to conference tournaments before graduating to the NCAA Tournament. Tuesday’s March 1 features a quality Big Ten matchup when Illinois (18-11 straight up, 14-14-1 against the spread) visits eighth-ranked Purdue (24-5 SU, 18-8 ATS).
The Illini currently find themselves in a three-way tie for fourth place in the conference with Michigan State and Penn State. Illinois is also projected to be a 10th seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament, one of six Big Ten teams expected to make the Big Dance.
Purdue finds itself a game behind first-place Ohio State, and a game ahead of third-place Wisconsin. The Boilermakers are expected to be around a second seed for the NCAA Tournament heading into March.
Illinois was mired in a two-game SU losing streak before throttling Iowa Saturday as 11-point home ‘chalk,’ 81-68. The combined 149 points toppled the 135-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ cash the second consecutive contest. The Illini are now just 1-3-1 ATS the past five games.
Illinois finished the contest with advantages in rebounding (30-26) and assists (21-15), while shooting a stellar 55 percent (31-of-56) from the field and 33 percent (6-of-18) from behind the arc. Center Mike Tisdale led all scorers with 25 points along with five rebounds, while forward Mike Davis added 20 and nine.
Purdue extended its SU and ATS winning streak to six games after blasting Michigan State Sunday as a one-point road underdog, 67-47. The combined 114 points never seriously threatened the 133½-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the second game in a row.
The Boilermakers jumped out to a nine-point halftime advantage, 33-24, and finished the contest with advantages in rebounding (33-32) and assists (14-11). Purdue shot 44 percent (25-of-57) from the field, and 37 percent (7-of-19) from 3-point land.
Center JaJuan Johnson paced the offense with 20 points and 17 rebounds, while guard E’Twaun Moore added 17. Guard Lewis Jackson was the only other player to reach double digits in scoring with 16 while also delivering seven assists.
Purdue is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS the previous four encounters with Illinois. The Boilermakers won the lone matchup this season Feb. 13 as 2½-point road ‘chalk,’ 81-70, while the combined 151 points eclipsed the 135-point closing total. The ‘over’ has cashed the last four games in this series, and is 8-1 the previous nine.
Illinois guard Joseph Bertrand is ‘questionable’ versus the Boilermakers due to an injured hip. The Illini conclude their regular season with Saturday’s home matchup versus Indiana. Illinois has seen the ‘under’ go 8-1 the last nine Tuesday games.
Purdue wraps up its regular season with Saturday’s road matchup against Iowa. The Boilermakers are 7-2 ATS their last nine Tuesday games, while the ‘over’ is 7-2-1 the previous 10 Tuesday contests.
ESPN will provide coverage of Tuesday’s Big Ten affair beginning at 4:00 p.m. PT from Purdue’s Mackey Arena. The telecast is followed by the Vanderbilt, Kentucky matchup at Rupp Arena.
Kentucky hosts Vanderbilt in SEC Showdown
By: Stephen Nover
There’s no denying Kentucky’s outstanding talent. But it’s a stretch to call the youthful Wildcats a great team as evidenced by an 8-6 SEC mark.
However, when playing in Rupp Arena the Wildcats are outstanding.
Kentucky puts its 33-game home winning streak on the line Tuesday night at 6 PT on ESPN hosting Vanderbilt. If the Wildcats defeat the Commodores they will set a school record for consecutive victories at Rupp Arena.
The Wildcats were in danger of dropping out of the Top 25, but defeated SEC East Division-leading Florida, 76-68, at home this past Saturday as 8½-point favorites. The victory pushed Kentucky’s record to 14-0 at Rupp Arena this season, 5-3-1 ATS versus ‘lined’ opponents. Kentucky is ranked 23rd in the latest ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll.
The combined 144 went ‘over’ the 137½-point total. It’s the fifth straight time Kentucky has gone ‘over’ the total.
Darius Miller produced the best game of his career for the Wildcats against Florida scoring 24 points with five rebounds, three assists and three steals.
Brandon Knight contributed 16 points and six assists with no turnovers as the Wildcats shot 51.7 percent from the floor in giving John Calipari his 500th career victory.
Knight is third in scoring in the SEC averaging 17.7 points per game. Vanderbilt’s John Jenkins leads the conference in scoring at 19.6 points.
Terrence Jones of Kentucky is the SEC’s top rebounder at 9.1 boards per game and is the No. 4 scoring leader at 17.6 points, but it is Miller who has been hot for the Wildcats reaching double digit scoring in each of the last four games.
Miller is averaging 18 points and 5.5 rebounds during this stretch, shooting 53.2 percent from the field and also connecting on 12 of 24 three-pointers.
Knight, Jones and Miller are all outstanding talents. Calipari, though, has been using strictly a six-man rotation. The rest of Kentucky’s reserves have combined for only 12 points in 14 conference games.
The Wildcats are shooting 39.9 percent from three-point range, which ranks 15th in the country. They are averaging 77.6 points per game, good for 20th in the nation.
Vanderbilt is the 24th-highest scoring team averaging 77.1 points. The Commodores also are ninth-best in defending against 3-pointers holding foes to 28.9 percent from beyond the arc. Vanderbilt ranks 20th in the latest coaches poll.
The Commodores have covered in six of their last seven games, including rolling past LSU, 90-69, this past Saturday as 8½-point favorites. The combined 159 points flew ‘over’ the 133½-point total.
Vanderbilt, 21-7 and 9-5 in the SEC, held the Tigers to 25 percent shooting from the field in the second half to overcome a 43-41 halftime deficit. Jeffery Taylor led the Commodores with 20 points with Jenkins adding 17.
The Commodores trail Florida by two games in the SEC’s East Division with two games left. Vanderbilt closes its regular season hosting Florida on Saturday. The Commodores are 14-2 at home. Kentucky finishes its regular season at Tennessee on Sunday.
Junior center Festus Ezeli has emerged as a key in Vanderbilt’s interior defense with 18 blocks in his past three games.
It’s Jenkins, however, who the Wildcats are most concerned about. The sophomore guard had scored 20 or more points in six consecutive games until falling short versus LSU. Jenkins led the nation in scoring as a high school senior.
Jenkins had 32 points in the Commodores’ 81-77 home win against the Wildcats on Feb. 12. The Commodores were one-point favorites with the combined 158 points going ‘over’ the 146 ½-point total.
Jenkins lit the Wildcats up making 11 of 17 shots from the floor, including hitting six 3-pointers. Vanderbilt sank 11 of 20 3-point shots in the victory.
Vanderbilt is 7-5 on the road, 6-2-1 ATS against ‘board’ teams. Kentucky has failed to cover in six of its last nine games.
Tuesday's ESPN broadcast is preceded by the Fighting Illini, Boilermakers battle at Purdue's Mackey Arena.
College Basketball Knowledge
Florida won five of last six games, Alabama nine of last 11; Tide is 4-3 on SEC road, losing by 5 at Arkansas, 4 at Vandy, 5 at Ole Miss. Gators are 2-4 as home favorite, winning home games by 6-32-4-2-1-9 points. Five of last six Florida games went over total; Bama's last three stayed under. SEC home favorites of 7 or less points are 9-12 vs spread.
Oklahoma State (+6.5) lost 76-57 at Baylor Jan 22; star F Moses scored one point in only 11 minutes (fouls). Cowboys lost four of last five, are 1-3 as Big 12 home favorite- their last three home games were decided by total of nine points. Baylor lost five of its last six road games, by 15-8-7-9-18. Big 12 home favorites of 4 or less points are 8-3-1 vs spread.
Purdue (+2.5) won 81-70 at Illinois Feb 13, outscoring Illini 54-38 after halftime; Boilers won/covered last six games- this is Senior Day for both Moore/Johnson. Big 11 home favorites of 9 or less points are 26-15-2 vs spread. Erratic Illinois is 5-8 in last 13 games, 1-3-1 as road dog, losing away games by 2-10-3-1-4-19 points, with wins at Iowa/Minnesota.
NC State is 3-2 in last five games, but just 1-6 on ACC road, winning at lowly Wake Forest- their losses on road are by 9-13-10-20-24-7 points. Virginia is 3-4 at home in ACC, 1-2 as ACC favorite- they scored only 52 ppg in last four games. State allowed 74+ points in last three games. ACC home teams are 3-7 in games where spread was 2 or less points.
Nebraska (+11) lost 77-69 at Missouri Jan 12, its 4th loss in last five series games. Denmon had 27 (5-7 from arc) for Mizzou, which is 1-6 on Big 12 road, with only win at Iowa State. Big 12 home teams are 13-6 vs spread in games where spread was less than 4 points. Huskers are 5-2 at home in Big 12, with only losses by 20 to Kansas, 4 to K-State.
Huge trap game for Virginia Tech after Duke upset Saturday; Hokies are 5-6 as an ACC favorite, 4-2 at home- they lost 58-56 (-2) in Boston on Feb 5, with starting Gs going 6-25, their bench 0-7. ACC home favorites of more than 8 points are 8-15 vs spread. Eagles covered six of seven on ACC road (2-5 SU) losing away games by 1-16-16-8-2 points.
Penn State (+17) shot 55% from floor, but lost 69-66 at Ohio State Jan 15, with star G Battle 5-17 from floor, 1-10 from arc; this is Senior Day for Battle, who is from Albany and one of PSU's best-ever players. Big 11 home underdogs are 13-9 vs spread this season. Lions won six of last seven home games- their home losses are to Purdue by 15, Michigan by 3. Buckeyes lost their last two road games, at Wisconsin/Purdue.
Kentucky (-1) lost 81-77 at Vanderbilt Feb 12; Commodores hit 11-20 from arc, 20-23 from foul line. Wildcats are 3-3-1 as SEC home favorite, winning home games by 24-38-6-12-6-31-8 points. SEC home favorites of 9 or less points are 9-14-1 vs spread. Vandy won six of its last seven games- they're 3-1 as SEC underdog, and won last three away games.
San Diego State lost five of last seven visits to Wyoming, but Aztecs are much better than usual this year, with only two losses to BYU. Aztecs are 3-2 as MWC road favorite, winning road games by 13-9-10-2-6-12 points. Wyoming is running more under interim coach Langley; they're 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven games, with none of its last five losses by more than 13 points. MWC home underdogs of 6+ points are 4-8.
Horizon League tournament (campus sites)
Cleveland State beat Ill-Chicago twice this season, 83-59 at home (-16), 63-49 on road (-10); Vikings were +23 in turnovers, made 16-43 on arc in two games. CSU is 3-4 last seven games (1-6 vs spread)- they're 0-4 vs spread in last four home games. UIC is 4-5 as a road dog in Horizon games. Horizon League home favorites of 9+ points are 10-15 vs spread.
Detroit beat Loyola twice this year, 83-71 (+5) on road, 81-71 at home (-4.5); Titans shot 50%+ in both games, made 15-29 from arc. Horizon home favorites of less than 9 points are 22-13 vs spread. Loyola lost in first tourney game last two years, by 9-14 points; they're 2-5 as a road dog in Horizon play. Detroit covered its last three games as a favorite.
Wright State beat Green Bay twice this year, but by combined total of just five points (67-64/63-61); Raiders lost four of their last five games, are 2-6 vs spread in last eight games as a favorite. Green Bay shot 50%+ in both games vs Wright; they lost six of last eight games, but covered last five. Horizon home favorites of less than 9 points are 22-13.
Valparaiso beat Youngstown twice this year, 79-55 at home (-15), 86-78 in OT (-7.5) on road; Valpo was 19-40 from line in OT win. Crusaders are 2-3 in last five games, 2-4-1 vs spread in last seven games as a home favorite. YSU is 1-6 in this event, with four of six losses by 14+ points. Horizon League home favorites of 9+ points are 10-15 vs spread.
Tips and Trends
Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers
ILLINI: Illinois is currently on the NCAA Tournament bubble, so they need a strong finish to the regular season. The Illini have struggled recently, but are coming off a double digit SU win over Iowa. Illinois is 18-11 SU and 14-14-1 ATS overall this season. The Illini are just 4-6 SU and 5-4-1 ATS in true road games this year. Illinois is 2-3 ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Illini are facing their 2nd largest underdog price of the season tonight. Illinois has already lost to Purdue this season, so a SU road win tonight would be sweet redemption for a team that desperately needs it. G Demetri McCamey is the strongest player the Fighting Illini have, as he's averaging team highs of 14.7 PPG and 6.2 APG this year. F Mike Davis is averaging 12.1 PPG and a team high 6.9 RPG this season. The Fighting Illini are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Illinois is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Big Ten Conference. The Illini are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a winning SU record.
Illini are 7-2 ATS last 9 games as a road underdog of 7 to 12.5 points.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games against a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - G Joseph Bertrand (hip) is questionable.
Projected Score: 58
BOILERMAKERS: (-9, O/U 136.5) Purdue is playing their best basketball of the season at the perfect time. The Boilermakers are slowly making a case for a #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. Purdue crushed Michigan St. on the road in their most recent contest. The Boilermakers are 24-5 SU and currently ranked 6th in the national polls. Purdue is easily one of the most profitable teams this season, as they have gone 18-8 ATS. The Boilermakers have yet to lose SU at home this season, as they are 15-0 SU and 9-1 ATS. C JaJuan Johnson has been invaluable to the Boilermakers this year, as he's averaging team highs of 20.4 PPG and 8.1 RPG. G E'Twaun Moore is averaging 18.5 PPG and 5.3 RPG for Purdue this year. The Boilermakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Purdue is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. The Boilermakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. Purdue is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a winning SU record. The Boilermakers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against the Big Ten. Purdue is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. The Boilermakers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Tuesday games.
Boilermakers are 6-0 ATS last 6 games overall.
Over is 9-4 last 13 games following an ATS win.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 75 (SIDE of the Day)
Vanderbilt Commodores at Kentucky Wildcats
COMMODORES: Vanderbilt has won 6 of their last 7 games SU, as they get ready for another opportunity in the NCAA Tournaments. The Commodores have been extremely consistent over the past several seasons, making them a model CBB program. Vanderbilt is 21-7 SU and 14-9-1 ATS overall this season and ranked 20th in the nation. The Commodores are 5-4 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in true road games this season. Vanderbilt is an impressive 6-1 ATS as the listed underdog this year. Vanderbilt is 7-3 ATS after scoring 80 or more points in their previous game. G John Jenkins is averaging a team high 19.5 PPG this year, while shooting 41% from the 3 point line. G Brad Tinsley is averaging 10.9 PPG and a team high 4.4 APG this season. The Commodores are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Vanderbilt is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games. The Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%. Vanderbilt is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the SEC.
Commodores are 6-1 ATS last 7 games as a road underdog.
Over is 10-4 last 14 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Key Injuries - G Jeffery Taylor (wrist) is probable.
Projected Score: 74
WILDCATS: (-7.5, O/U 145.5) Kentucky is coming off a strong home win over Florida, and they will look to back that performance up with a stronger one tonight. The Wildcats lost earlier this year to Vanderbilt, so tonight's matchup has plenty of significance for Kentucky. The Wildcats are 20-8 SU and 10-12-1 ATS overall this year, which has them ranked 23rd in the country. The Wildcats are unbeaten at home, as they are 14-0 SU and 5-3 ATS in home lined games this season. Kentucky is 4-8-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. G Brandon Knight leads the Wildcats in both points and assists this year, averaging 17.7 PPG and 4.1 APG respectively. F Terrence Jones is averaging 17.3 PPG and a team high 9.1 RPG this year. The Wildcats are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite between 7 and 12.5 points. Kentucky is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games. Kentucky is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Wildcats are 1-5 ATS last 6 games following a SU win.
Over is 5-0 last 5 games as a favorite.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 79 (OVER-Total of the Day)
Tuesday's Totals to Watch
By Bruce Marshall
Here’s a quick look at several team "totals" trends to watch in Tuesday’s night college hoops card...
Alabama at Florida... Note that the visiting Crimson Tide has gone ‘over’ in its last 3 games.
Central Michigan at Toledo... The host Rockets are not winning often, but they are going "over" (9-3 last 12) most nights.
Akron at Ohio... Ohio trending ‘over’ (6-2 last 8) lately.
NC State at Virginia... The Cavs have gone ‘under’ in their last five outings.
Kent State at Bowling Green... Both trending ‘over’ in a serious way (Kent State its last 7 and Bowling Green 9 of its last 10).
Boston College at Virginia Tech... Both the Eagles and the Hokies are ‘under’ in their last three games.
Vanderbilt at Kentucky... The host Wildcats are ‘over’ in their last five games, including first meeting at Nashville on Feb. 12.
San Diego State at Wyoming... The Aztecs are ‘over’ in their last two games but are still "under" 11-4 in their last 15 this season.
Illinois-Chicago at Cleveland State (Horizon Tourney)... The host Vikings are ‘over’ 5-2 in their last 7 outings.
Loyola-Chicago at Detroit (Horizon Tourney)... The Titans are ‘over’ 6-1 in their last 7 games.
UW-Green Bay at Wright State (Horizon Tourney)... Conflicting trends, with he Fighting Phoenix ‘under’ 4 of their last 5 and the host Raiders ‘over’ 6 of their last 7.