Tuesday's Best NCAAB Bet
Clemson Tigers at UAB Blazers (4.5, 120)
Whether or not you like this new First Four format the NCAA Tournament is adopting this year, you have to admit this is a very interesting matchup. The Tigers and Blazers square off for the right to battle No. 5 seed West Virginia.
Both teams have holes, but the Tigers come into this one on a roll, going 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four and pushing the North Carolina Tar Heels to overtime before losing in the ACC Tournament.
Demontez Stitt went off for 25 points against the Heels and is a major threat, leading the team in points (14.7 per game) and assists (3.4). Meanwhile, the Blazers have a bunch of guys that can shoot the lights out, but many are wondering how they made the big dance.
Considering the competition Clemson has been up against all year in the ACC, we’ll eat the chalk in this matchup.
Pick: Tigers
What Bettors Need to Know: Clemson vs. UAB
Clemson Tigers vs. UAB Blazers (-4.5, 121)
THE STORY: Clemson and Alabama-Birmingham--two of the final four at-large teams included in the field—collide Tuesday in the newly expanded first round of the NCAA tournament. It’s a brutal turnaround, travel-wise, for the winning squad. They play the late game at Dayton on Tuesday then play an early-afternoon contest on Thursday in Tampa.
TV: 9:10 p.m. EST, truTV. POINTSPREAD: Clemson -4.5.
ABOUT UAB (22-8): The regular-season champion in Conference USA, UAB overcame an overtime loss to East Carolina in the C-USA tournament to earn a controversial at-large berth. It’s the first NCAA tournament trip for UAB during the five-year tenure of coach Mike Davis. UAB reached the tournament on the strength of a stingy defense that has allowed just 62.3 points per game. Senior Jamarr Sanders led C-USA in scoring at 17.7 points per game, but he’s tallied just 85 points in his last six games since dropping a career-high 37 on Feb. 12 against Rice.
ABOUT CLEMSON (21-11): First-year coach Brad Brownell has led Clemson to its fourth straight NCAA tournament appearance. That’s the most consecutive NCAA trips in Clemson history. Not bad for a Tigers team picked seventh in the ACC in preseason. Clemson finished strong, winning three of its final four games to close the regular season before falling short in overtime against North Carolina in the semifinals of the ACC tournament. Leading scorer Demontez Stitt came up big in the ACC tourney, scoring 45 total points in two contests. The Tigers are the best defensive team in the ACC, allowing a league-low 60.9 points per game.
UP NEXT: The winner plays fifth-seeded West Virginia on Thursday at 12:15 p.m.
TRENDS:
Under is 7-1 in UAB's last eight non-conference games.
Under is 9-3-1 in Clemson's last 13 games overall.
Clemson is 3-0-1 against the spread in its last four games.
PREDICTION: Clemson 63, UAB 56 – Clemson’s tough defense and superior schedule gives the Tigers the edge. Look for Clemson to snap its five-game losing streak in the NCAA tournament.
What Bettors Need to Know: UNC-Asheville vs. Arkansas-Little Rock
UNC-Asheville vs. Arkansas-Little Rock (-4, 129.5)
THE STORY: Cinderellas square off in Dayton, Ohio on Tuesday night when North Carolina-Asheville plays Arkansas-Little Rock in a battle of No. 16 seeds. The Bulldogs are making their second NCAA tournament appearance, the other coming in 2003, while the Trojans haven’t been to the tourney since 1990. Both made surprising runs to win their conference tournaments. UNC-Asheville knocked off Coastal Carolina 60-47 in the Big South final, holding the top seed to 34 percent shooting. UALR edged North Texas 64-63 in the Sun Belt final on Solomon Bozeman’s 3-pointer with 1.5 seconds left.
TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, truTV. POINTSPREAD: UNC-Asheville -4
ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA-ASHEVILLE (19-13): The Bulldogs have won six straight, including two victories over a Coastal Carolina squad that at one point had a nation-best 22-game win streak. UNC-Asheville owns a win over Auburn and hung with North Carolina in Chapel Hill; the Bulldogs trailed by six with five minutes left before falling 80-69. Averaging 74.2 points (47th nationally), UNC-Asheville runs an up-tempo attack keyed by junior guards Matt Dickey (15.3 points, 3.3 assists), J.P. Primm (14.4 points, 4.6 assists) and Chris Stephenson (14 points, 8 rebounds in the Big South final). The Bulldogs are relying even more heavily on their backcourt now that center D.J. Cunningham is out for the season with a foot injury. One of the Bulldogs’ bugaboos is ball security. They average 15 turnovers, which ranks 272nd nationally.
ABOUT ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (19-16): The Trojans ended the regular season with three straight losses, then won four games in four days for their first Sun Belt title. Bozeman, the conference Player of the Year, poured in 88 points in the tourney, half of them at the foul line. The 6-foot senior averages 16.5 points and 2.7 assists, and shoots 46 percent from beyond the arc. He’s a big reason why UALR ranks 14th nationally in 3-point shooting (39.8 percent). UALR prefers a more deliberate style and commits just 11.8 turnovers per game (38th nationally). But the Trojans, who like UNC-Asheville lack a big post presence, have a rebounding margin of -1.5. That's worse than UNC-Asheville's -0.4.
UP NEXT: Winner plays No. 1 seed Pittsburgh on Thursday in Washington, D.C.
TRENDS:
UNC-Asheville has covered the spread in each of its last three games.
Arkansas-Little Rock has covered the number in four straight.
Arkansas-Little Rock has played under in seven of its last 10 games.
PREDICTION: North Carolina-Asheville 72, Arkansas-Little Rock 65 – Bozeman will be the best player on the court, but look for the Bulldogs to assert their tempo and run past the Trojans.
College Basketball Knowledge
Play-in Games
Arkansas-Little Rock is 2nd-shortest team in America; they're first team from Sun Belt to be in a play-in game. Since 2003, Sun Belt teams lost nine of 12 NCAA games, are 0-8 when less than a 12 seed, play-in game is lesser competition than that. NC-Asheville is in tournament for first time since '03; Big South teams are 1-19 in NCAAs (Winthrop won 1st round game in '97). Asheville forces turnovers on 24.5% on possessions, very high percentage, but Little Rock is a guard-heavy team.
UAB was ripped far-and-wide Sunday wide for not deserving to be here, so easy motivation for Coach Davis, who is in NCAAs or first time in five years. UAB is 2-7 in last nine first-round games, with last win back in '05. Clemson was 0-4 in first-round games under Purnell; Brownell is new coach- he coached at Wright State here in Dayton LY. Tigers' last win in NCAAs was in '97. Clemson beat East Carolina by 12, the team that knocked UAB out of Conference USA tournament. Sun Belt road dogs of 7 or less points are 7-17 vs spread. ACC road favorites of less than 7 points are 9-8 vs spread.
Other Tournaments
I'm focusing on the NCAA tournament, but since there are 19 freaking games tonight in other events, I'll give you one snippet of info on every game on the card. Don't bet a lot on these games; no one knows who is motivated to play here and who isn't, and that probably includes most of the coaches involved...........good luck. Please be cautious.
Ohio @ Marshall-- Marshall (+5) won 65-57 at Ohio in December 4th.
Dayton @ Charleston-- Flyers won three games to get to A-14 final, but final was Sunday/Atlantic City. Quick turnaround for road game here.
Vermont @ Cleveland State-- Horizon League double digit home faves are 2-9 vs spread in non-conference games this season.
Coastal Carolina @ Alabama-- Former Auburn coach Ellis beat LSU in December when Chanticleers were at full strength, but they've lost three guys either to eligibility or injury issues.
Harvard @ Oklahoma State-- Ivy League road underdogs of 12 points or less are 10-2 vs spread; this is Harvard's first-ever game on ESPN.
Murray State @ Missouri State-- Single digit road underdogs from OVC are 9-13 vs spread in non-conference games.
Boston College @ McNeese State-- Big night for McNeese, getting ACC team to visit, but they're 0-4 vs top 100 teams, losing by 54-15-20-9.
Fairfield @ Colorado State-- Rams lost five of last six games; Fairfield lost at home in conference tournament. Long road trip from Connecticut to Fort Collins. MAAC single digit road underdogs are 8-10 vs spread.
UTEP @ New Mexico-- Lobos' 4-year starting PG Gary screwed up a knee Friday night; his college career is over. UTEP lost its conference tournament by a point at home Saturday.
Kent State @ St Mary's-- WCC home favorites are 17-12 vs spread in non-conference games this season.
James Madison @ Davidson-- Host Wildcats won nine of last 11 games after starting season 8-12; Southern Conference home favorites of less than 7 points are 1-4 vs spread in non-league games.
Hofstra @ Evansville-- MVC non-conference home favorites of less than 5 points are 6-3 against the spread this season.
San Jose State @ Creighton-- WAC double digit road underdogs are 4-11 vs spread in non-conference games this season.
Austin Peay @ Boise State-- Broncos played late Saturday in Vegas, been over a week since Austin Peay played. WAC home favorites of less than 11 points are 16-6 vs spread this season.
Furman @ East Tennessee State-- Former Southern Conference rivals; SoCon single digit road underdogs are 12-5 vs spread in non-league tilts.
Jacksonville @ East Carolina-- Dolphins won postseason game LY at Arizona State. ECU's leading assist man is done for year (leg injury).
Rider @ Northern Iowa-- Broncs won six of their last seven games, UNI lost seven of its last eight games.
North Dakota @ Air Force-- Fighting Sioux are 11-4 since losing a 4OT game to Utah Valley Jan 20; they won their conference tourney final in double OT against South Dakota.
Northern Arizona @ Santa Clara-- Lumberjacks lead country, hitting on 42.4% of 3-pointers; they beat Pepperdine of WCC by 14 last fall. Santa Clara beat Big Sky champ Northern Colorado by 3.
Portland @ Hawai'i-- Pilots are 3-0 vs WAC teams this year, beating Idaho by 13, Boise State by 9 and Nevada by 4.
Tuesday's Play-In Games
By Brian Edwards
The 2011 NCAA Tournament begins tonight in Dayton with a pair of play-in games starting at 6:30 p.m. Eastern. In the lid-lifter, UNC-Asheville (19-13 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) will take on Arkansas-Little Rock.
As of early this morning, most betting shops had the Bulldogs favored by four with a total of 129. Gamblers can back A-LR to win outright for a plus-160 payout (risk $100 to win $160).
UNC-Asheville won the Big South Conference Tournament to garner the league’s automatic bid. The Bulldogs beat the regular-season champ, a short-handed Coastal Carolina team, in the tourney finals. They won a 60-47 decision as five-point underdogs.
Chris Stephenson scored 14 points and pulled down eight rebounds, while John Williams added 10 points, nine boards and six blocked shots. Matt Dickey chipped in with 12 points.
Arkansas-Little Rock (19-16 SU, 17-16 ATS) brought a three-game losing steak both SU and ATS into the Sun Belt Conference Tournament, but the Trojans broke out of that slide to win four consecutive games both SU and ATS. They beat North Texas in the finals last Tuesday thanks to Solomon Bozeman’s game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer.
Bozeman scored a game-high 20 points to lift his team past the Mean Green Eagles as a 3½-point underdog. Gus Leeper was also in double figures with 10 points.
A-LR is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 21 years. Bozeman has been the key, averaging 22.0 points per game during the four-game run through the Sun Belt Tourney. He called a players-only meeting before the event after the Trojans lost three straight to conclude the regular season.
A-LR has faced just one team from the entire NCAA field this year. The Trojans lost 75-61 to Akron as four-point underdogs out in Las Vegas in November. They also took on an NIT squad in Ole Miss, which won at A-LR by an 84-70 count as a seven-point road favorite.
UNC-Asheville has won six in a row. During its non-conference schedule, it was not scored to take on the big boys, going on the road to face programs like Auburn, Georgetown, North Carolina and Ohio State.
UNC-Asheville won its season opener 70-69 at Auburn in overtime. The Bulldogs were competitive in losses at UNC (80-69) and at Georgetown (87-72), but they got stroked 96-49 by the Buckeyes.
Hailing from a non-board conference, UNC-Asheville’s only lined games were its BracketBuster matchup vs. Northeastern and its three games in the Big South Tourney. The Bulldogs lost a heartbreaker at home to the Huskies, 83-82, as four-point home favorites. However, they took the cash in all three victories en route to winning their NCAA bid.
Dickey, a junior guard, leads UNC-Asheville with a 15.4 PPG average. He has an excellent backcourt mate in fellow junior J.P. Primm, who averages 14.4 points, 4.6 assists, 3.8 rebounds and 2.1 steals per game.
The winner will advance to face top-seeded Ohio St. in Cleveland at 4:40 p.m. Eastern on Thursday.
In the second contest from Dayton Arena, Clemson (21-11 SU, 13-13-2 ATS) will square off against UAB. As of early this morning, most books had the Tigers listed as 4½-point favorites with a total of 121. Bettors can take the Blazers on the money line for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180).
Brad Brownwell can surpass the number of NCAA Tournament wins his predecessor, Oliver Purnell, amassed at Clemson with a victory tonight. The Tigers finished strong to get into the field, winning four of their last six games while going 4-1-1 ATS.
Clemson beat Va. Tech 69-60 in its regular-season finale and then destroyed Boston College 70-47 in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals. With the Hokies and Eagles also on the bubble, those victories were apparently the difference for the Tigers, who also gave North Carolina fits before losing in overtime of the ACC semifinals.
When Clemson has been listed as a single-digit favorite this season, it has posted a 9-6 spread record. The Tigers have played nine games against teams in the NCAA field, winning just twice against FSU at home and Wofford at home.
UAB (22-8 SU, 17-11-1 ATS) won the Conference USA regular-season title with a 12-4 record, but it appeared to have its bubble popped with an overtime loss to East Carolina in the C-USA Tourney quarterfinals. Nevertheless, head coach Mike Davis is back in the tournament for the first time since he was at Indiana.
UAB played five teams in the NCAA field, losing four of those, including an 85-64 loss at Duke as a 17 ½-point underdog. The Blazers beat VCU 68-65 but failed to cover the number as 5½-point favorites. They lost 66-64 at Georgia, 76-73 vs. Memphis in overtime and 62-58 at Memphis.
Clemson is led by senior guard Demontez Stitt, who averaged 22.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 2.0 steals per game in the ACC Tourney. The Tigers’ best post player is Jerai Grant, who averages 12.1 points and 6.7 rebounds per game. Grant, another senior, has 196 career blocked shots.
UAB’s leading scorer is senior guard Jamarr Sanders, who averages 17.7 points and 4.6 rebounds per game. Sanders scored a career-best 37 points in a win over Rice on Feb. 12. Sanders is joined in the backcourt by senior PG Aaron Johnson, who leads the nation in assists with 7.7 per game. Johnson (12.0 PPG) exploded for a career-high 39 points in the aforementioned loss to ECU.
The ‘under’ has been a lucrative investment in Clemson games, cashing at a 17-10-1 overall clip. Likewise, the ‘under’ is 17-11-1 overall for UAB.
The Clemson-UAB winner will earn a No. 11 seed and a date with West Va. It'll be a quick turnaround for a 12:15 p.m. Eastern game in Tampa.
Both play-in games will be televised on TruTV (channel 246 on DirecTV).
vegasinsider.com.