NCAA Tournament Play-in Game: Odds and Preview
By Nick Parsons.
Arkanas-Pine Bluff vs. Winthrop (-4.5, 117.5)
Game is being held at Dayton, Ohio and can be seen on ESPN 7:30 p.m. ET, Tuesday night.
The annual NCAA play-in game features a pair of low-scoring teams who’ve both posted upsets in their conference tournaments. It is the first NCAA appearance for Arkansas-Pine Bluff while Winthrop is making its ninth trip to the Big Dance.
The winner faces Duke, the No. 1 seed from the South region, on Friday.
Who are these guys?
Arkansas-Pine Bluff lost its first 11 games of the season. You’d think after that type of start the Golden Lions would have packed things in, but that wasn’t the case.
UAPB coach George Ivory actually took a little positive out of the tough start. The Lions only lost those games by an average of 15 points and they played every one of them on the road. They lost to big-name schools like Oklahoma State, Missouri, Kansas State and Georgia Tech during the winless streak.
UAPB played its first three contests on the road when the conference season began but this time it won two of them and ended finishing 14-4 in the SWAC.
No Bluffing
UAPB earned its first NCAA berth beating Texas Southern 50-38 on Saturday in the Southwestern Athletic Conference championship game.
“This means a lot for our school and our fans,” UAPB coach George Ivory said. “We worked all year to get to the Big Dance and now we can always brag that at least for one year, we got to The Dance.
“We put a lot of pride in our defense and rebounding. We played a tough preseason schedule and it prepared us for playing physical in our league.”
The Golden Lions were seeded second in their conference tourney. They held conference opponents to just 37.3 shooting from the field and were second in the conference in rebounding.
Winthrop, who?
The Eagles are 1-8 in their NCAA Tournament history. They finished the season with an RPI of 162 playing a schedule ranked 242nd in the nation.
The Big South champs knocked off top-seeded Coastal Carolina 64-53 to earn the bid. Guard Reggie Middleton is the lone Eagle averaging double figures (10.3 ppg, 2.9 apg) while center Matt Morgan chips in with 9.6 ppg.
Winthrop defeated Notre Dame 84-74 in the 2007 NCAA tourney and is making its fifth NCAA trip in the last six years. That type of tourney experience led the Eagles to believe they wouldn’t be playing in 64-65 seed game.
“I expected us to go right in and play a No. 1 seed,” freshman guard Robbie Dreher said. “We’ll use this as motivation.”
They’re no shooting stars
Offensively Winthrop is one of the worst teams in the country. It ranks 295th in the nation in scoring (62.4 ppg.). And, if you think they stink at the free throw line (298th in the nation) watch them build a brick house beyond the arc – they’re dead last in the country in 3-point percentage.
How did they get in the Big Dance? Well, they played a lot of lousy teams and they suffocated them with a fantastic defensive style.
Winthrop held its opponents to 39 percent shooting from the floor and 29 percent from 3-point range. It ranks 33rd in the nation in scoring defense (61.4 ppg.) Winthrop finished third in the Big South and was 2-2 ATS in the limited games that you could get a line on them. The Eagles will also have a bit of a height advantage up front.
Injury update
Junior point guard Justin Burton was unable to practice on his injured right knee on Sunday. He came down awkwardly on the leg in Big South championship win. Burton had 11 points in 21 minutes of floor time with starter Reggie Middleton on the bench in foul trouble. Burton is questionable for Tuesday’s game.
Trend-setting
Winthrop is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 neutral site games and 0-4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff is 1-4 ATS in its five lined games this season.
It’s been all under for Winthrop recently.
Winthrop has gone under in its last four NCAA Tournament games.
The under is 15-3 in Winthrop’s last 18 games following a straight up win.
The under is also 14-3 in Wintrop’s last 17 neutral site games, 4-1 in Winthrop’s last five non-conference games and 20-8 in the team’s last 28 overall.
NCAA TOURNAMENT
(at Dayton, Ohio)
Winthrop (19-13, 2-2 ATS) vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (17-15, 1-4 ATS)
Winthrop scored consecutive upsets in the Big South tournament, capped by a 64-53 win over Coastal Carolina as a nine-point underdog in the championship game on March 6, to clinch their fifth Big Dance berth in the last six years. The Eagles had lost three of four to end the regular season in third place in the Big South standings, but they swept three games in the conference tourney, also knocking off Liberty (80-72, falling short as an 8½-point favorite) and Radford (61-46 as a 2½-point ‘dog).
Arkansas Pine-Bluff topped Texas-Southern 50-38 as a two-point favorite on Saturday to capture the Southwestern Athletic Conference championship and secure its first ever NCAA Tournament bid. The Golden Lions have won four in a row and 11 of their last 12, and their only two losses since mid-January came against Jackson State, which won the SWAC regular-season title.
This is the first meeting between these schools.
While the Golden Lions are in the Tournament for the first time in school history, Winthrop is making its ninth appearance, all since 1999. The Eagles are 1-8 SU all-time, the lone victory being a 74-64 first-round upset of Notre Dame as a 3½-point underdog in 2007.
In addition to going 2-1 ATS in their conference tournament, the Eagles played one other lined game this season, and that was a Bracket Buster contest at Eastern Kentucky, and they got hammered 77-57 as a 7½-point road ‘dog. That dropped Winthrop to 0-4-1 ATS in its last five lined non-conference contests, but otherwise it is on spread-covering surges of 11-3 at neutral sites, 12-5 as an underdog, 8-3 as a ‘dog of less than seven points and 8-3 when catching points at neutral venues.
Arkansas Pine-Bluff’s easy win and cover in the SWAC championship ended a 0-5 ATS slump. However, the Golden Lions are just 1-5 ATS in their last six after a SU victory.
The favorite has won the last three “play-in” games, and after a 5-1 ATS run by the underdog in this event, the chalk has cashed in the last two.
Winthrop’s recent lined contests have been low-scoring affairs, as it is on “under” runs of 20-8 overall, 4-0 in NCAA Tournament games, 14-3 at neutral sites, 6-1 as an underdog and 7-1 as a neutral-site pup. Meanwhile, the Golden Lions stayed low in three of their last four lined games, including the last two in the SWAC tournament.
The winner of tonight’s game at Dayton Arena heads to Jacksonville, Fla., to face top-seeded Duke on Friday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WINTHROP and UNDER
NIT
N.C. State (19-15, 17-13-1 ATS) at South Florida (20-12, 19-10-2 ATS)
The Wolfpack made a valiant run to the ACC tournament semifinals last weekend, eventually falling to Georgia Tech 57-54 on Saturday, but cashing as a four-point underdog. N.C. State rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit and actually had a three-point lead late but couldn’t hang on. Still, the Wolfpack have rebounded from an 0-5 slump (1-4 ATS) to win five of their last seven, going 6-1 ATS including 4-0 ATS in the last four.
South Florida ended the regular season with three straight victories over Providence, DePaul and UConn, then got past DePaul again a week ago in the opening round of the Big East tournament (58-49 as a seven-point favorite). However, the Bulls’ Big Dance dreams ended the following day in an ugly 69-49 loss to Georgetown as a 6½-point underdog. The SU winner is 8-0-1 ATS in South Florida’s last nine games.
The Wolfpack are back in the postseason for the first time since 2007, when they won their first two games of the NIT before losing to West Virginia, finishing 2-0-1 ATS. South Florida’s last qualified for postseason play in 2002, losing an opening-round NIT game at Ball State.
The Bulls are 11-4 at home (8-4-2 ATS), while N.C. State has lost seven of 11 on the road, but it is 7-4 ATS. This is the first meeting between these schools.
N.C. State’s 4-0 ATS run overall is buoyed by pointspread streaks of 18-7-1 on the road, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 4-0 against winning teams. The Bulls are on ATS upticks of 3-1-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home, 9-3 in non-conference play, 4-1 against the ACC, 3-0-1 on Tuesday and 9-4 versus winning teams.
The Wolfpack are on “under” streaks of 5-0 overall, 4-0 on the road, 5-0 after a SU defeat and 4-0 after a non-cover, while South Florida has stayed low in eight of 11 overall, four of five versus the ACC and four of five on Tuesday. However, the over is 4-1 in N.C. State’s last five against ACC competition and 6-2 in South Florida’s last eight at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH FLORIDA
Texas Tech (17-15, 15-11 ATS) vs. Seton Hall (19-12, 8-17 ATS)
Texas Tech ended a seven-game losing skid with an 82-67 rout of Colorado as a one-point underdog in Wednesday’s opening round of the Big 12 tournament. The Red Raiders then gave top-seeded and top-ranked Kansas a bit of a scare the next day, eventually coming up well in an 80-68 loss but easily covered as a 17½-point underdog. The back-to-back spread-covers came on the heels of a 2-5 ATS funk.
A 7-3 end-of-season hot streak wasn’t enough to get the Pirates invited to the big party. They ended regular-season play with a pair of double-digit road wins over Rutgers and Providence, then they matched up with Providence again a week ago today in the Big East tournament and nearly blew a 29-point second-half lead, holding on 109-106 as a 5½-point favorite. However, Seton Hall was no match for Notre Dame the following day, losing 68-56 as a 2½-point pup.
This is Texas Tech’s first postseason appearance since losing an opening-round NCAA Tournament game in 2007. Seton Hall hasn’t played this deep into March since losing a first-round Tournament game to Wichita State in 2006.
The Red Raiders, who have never faced Seton Hall, are 3-9 in true road games this year (5-6 ATS in lined action). The Pirates are 13-4 at the Prudential Center, but a woeful 3-9 ATS in lined contests.
Texas Tech has cashed in six of its last seven non-conference games, but it has failed to cover in 17 of 22 on Tuesday and is 0-4-1 ATS in the last five against Big East opponents. The Pirates are on pointspread slides of 6-16 overall, 0-6 at home, 1-4 versus winning teams and 2-5 after a non-cover.
The under is 4-1 in the Raiders’ last five against the Big East, 4-1-1 in Seton Hall’s last six non-conference tussles and 6-1 in Seton Hall’s last seven Tuesday outings. However, Tech is on “over” streaks of 22-8 on the highway, 12-3-1 in all non-league games, 23-11-2 after a SU defeat and 5-2 on Tuesday, while the Pirates have topped the total in four of five overall and four of five at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS TECH and OVER
William & Mary (22-10, 17-10-1 ATS) vs. North Carolina (16-16, 10-20 ATS)
William & Mary nearly punched its first-ever ticket to the NCAA Tournament, but came up short to Old Dominion in the Colonial Athletic Association tournament championship on March 8, losing 60-53 but cashing as a nine-point underdog. Although that defeat snapped a three-game losing skid for the Tribe, they still enter their first-ever postseason game having won seven of 10 both SU and ATS.
One year after winning their fifth NCAA title, the Tar Heels find themselves out of the Big Dance for the first time failing to qualify in both 2002 and 2003. North Carolina started the year strong, winning 10 of their first 13 games (with the three losses coming to Syracuse, Kentucky and Texas, three teams that spent time ranked No. 1 this season). Then injuries piled up, the Tar Heels suffered a stunning 82-79 overtime loss at Charleston, followed by an ugly ACC campaign that saw them go 5-12 SU and ATS.
After getting destroyed at Duke in the regular-season finale March 6 (82-50 as a 15-point road underdog), the Heels went one-and-one in the conference tournament for the first time ever, falling to Georgia Tech 62-56 as a 3½-point underdog Thursday. The last time UNC was in the NIT was 2003, when it went 2-1 SU and ATS, losing a third-round game to Georgetown at home.
These teams met in 2005 in Chapel Hill, N.C., and even though North Carolina rolled 105-66, the Tribe barely got inside the whopping 40½-point spread.
William & Mary was 12-7 (12-6 ATS) on the highway this year, including 10-6 in true road games (10-5 ATS).
The Tribe’s ATS hot streaks include 7-3 overall, 5-1 on the road, 6-1 in non-conference play, 4-1 against the ACC and 10-4 after a SU defeat. North Carolina had one of the worst pointspread records in the country this season, ranking 224th out of 329 lined teams. And while the Heels have cashed in 43 of 61 non-conference games and four of five on Tuesday, they’re sill in pointspread funks of 5-14 overall, 2-5 at home, 2-6 after either a SU or ATS loss and 4-11 against winning teams.
William & Mary is riding “under” streaks of 16- overall, 11-1 on the highway, 5-1 after a SU defeat and 6-1 after a non-cover. Likewise, the Tar Heels are on “under” runs of 19-7 overall, 7-1 at home, 4-0 on Tuesday, 13-3 after a SU loss and 10-2 following an ATS setbacks.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NCAAB News and Notes
NCAA play-in game
Winthrop can't shoot; they rank 345th out of 347 teams on 3-pointers, making just 26.5%; 323rd on 2-point shots (42.6%) and 314th from the foul line (314th). They finished 3rd in Big South that is ranked 28th out of 31 leagues, but Ark-Pine Bluff plays in SWAC, worst league in the country, by far. Pine Bluff started season 0-11, playing seven games vs teams ranked in top 60; they finished 2nd in SWAC, so they didn't win the worst league in country. Best team they beat is Texas Southern, the 276th-ranked team. Winthrop beat 147th-ranked Coastal Carolina twice.
Other tournaments and their games
Jim Calhoun came to UConn from Northeastern; Huskies lost last four games; you have to think this game means more to Northeastern, which went 3-4 in last seven games, a is veteran team that plays in half-court (rank 329th in pace). CAA road underdogs are 25-22 vs spread.
NC State won five of last seven games; they won at Marquette back in December; ACC road underdogs are 10-7 vs spread. South Florida has best player in game (Jones); they won four of last five games, but got waxed by Georgetown in Big East tourney. Big East home faves: 31-37.
Coastal Carolina lost Big South title game on its home floor; best team they beat is #139 Indiana State. UAB was awful down stretch, losing its last three games, scoring just 53 ppg. Blazers are 12-2 outside of CUSA; they only have nine guys, we'll see if they can get momentum back.
Texas Tech-Seton Hall could be very high scoring; Tech allowed average of 81.7 ppg in its three non-league road games (1-2)- their win in Big 12 tourney vs Colorado ended 7-game losing skid for Raiders. Pirates will have chip on should after going 9-9 in Big East but staying home. Big 12 road underdogs are 14-15 against the spread.
North Carolina has sub-standard guards; they lost 12 of last 16 games, you have to think they'll be relief when this season finally ends, but still, their talent level is way higher than Wm Mary team that gets 39.4% of its scoring behind arc (4th in country). Tribe won at Maryland and Wake Forest in the fall, so they won't be in awe here.
Mississippi State is very unhappy about missing NCAAs; they took Kentucky to OT two days ago, playing three days in row, so that makes this their fourth game in five nights, against Jackson State team that was 17-1 in SWAC but started season 0-10, losing at SEC's Alabama by 17.
Arizona State has senior PG- they went 8-3 in last 11 games, but lost in first round of Pac-10 tourney- they went 10-3 out of conference, with all three losses vs teams in NCAAs. Jacksonville won tiebreaker in a 4-way deadlock in Atlantic Sun- they lost by 32 at Cal back in November.
VCU beat Rhode Island (82-80). Richmond (65-57) of A-14; Rams won four of last six games, won nine of 10 games outside CAA. CAA road favorites are 8-6 out of conference. George Washington lost three games, by 9-13-10 points; they went 3-0 vs lower-level CAA clubs. A-14 home underdogs are 5-7 against the spread.
Saint Louis won its first six games in February, but finished 2-3, losing by 16 to URI in first round of A-14 tourney; they split pair of games vs MVC teams. Billikens don't have any seniors, could be good next year. Indiana State covered nine of its last 11 games. MVC road underdogs are 16-17 against the spread. A-14 home favorites are 22-15.
Fairfield lost MAAC title game in OT on Siena's home floor, ending its six-game win streak; Stags lost by 4 at Hofstra in its only game against a CAA team. MAAC road dogs are 17-14 vs spread. George Mason lost six of its last eight games- they're 5-7 in their non-conference games.
Marshall has a future NBA player in freshman shotblocker Whitehead; they got bad draw in C-USA tourney, having to play Tulsa on its home court (Herd had won seven of eight before that game). Problem for Herd is that well-coached Western Carolina gets 32.6% of its points behind the arc, which somewhat negates the shotblocker inside.
South Dakota won a new league, so they got automatic bid into tourney; they lost to Cornell at home by 6, in game right after Big Red almost got upset win at Kansas- they got crushed by Marquette/K-State. Creighton is 4-5 in last nine games- they beat Houston Baptist by 29, a team that is in South Dakota's conference.
Tips and Trends
Arkansas Pine Bluff vs. Winthrop Eagles
Arkansas Pine Bluff: Arkansas Pine Bluff started the season 0-11 SU, and didn't play badly! That record looks far worse than reality however, as the Wildcats played arguably the most difficult non conference schedule in the entire country. An example of their early season exploits shows they played Oklahoma St, Georgia Tech, Missouri, and Kansas St, all in succession and away from home. In a span of 2 months, Arkansas Pine Bluff played games in 10 different states. Despite their brutal start, the Wildcats ended the season at 17-15 SU and champions of the SWAC conference. The Wildcats were 1-4 ATS in the 5 games that featured ATS lines this season. The Wildcats were 6-14 SU on the road this season, including 3-0 SU in neutral court situations. The Wildcats scored 90 PTS combined in their past 2 games, and won both SU. The Wildcats averaged 64.4 PPG while allowing 64.7 PPG in return. Only 2 opponents have scored 60 PTS or more against the Wildcats in their past 8 games. G Terrance Calvin leads the Wildcats with 10.4 PPG this season..
Arkansas Pine Bluff is 1-5 ATS last 6 games overall.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 53
Eagles (-4, O/U 113.5): Winthrop is no stranger to the NCAA Tournament, as they are making their 9th appearance since 1999. After starting the season 4-9, SU the Eagles played great basketball. Winthrop won 14 of their last 18 games SU, including their conference championship. Winthrop had season long records of 19-13 SU and 2-2 ATS. Winthrop was 6-11 SU on the road this season, including 1-0 in neutral court settings. Winthrop is known for their defense, as they only allowed 61.4 PPG this season. Only 6 times this season did the Eagles allow an opponent to score more than 70 PTS against them. Offensively, Winthrop plays a slower style that limits their amount of possessions. The Eagles averaged 62.4 PPG this season, with G Reggie Middleton the only player to average double digits in PTS. Middleton averaged 10.2 PPG and a team high 2.9 APG this season. C Matt Morgan averaged 9.6 PPG and 4.6 RPG while shooting better than 50% from the field this season.
Winthrop is 11-3 ATS last 14 neutral site games.
Under is 7-1 last 8 neutral court games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 54 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
William & Mary Tribe at North Carolina Tar Heels
Tribe: William and Mary is excited to play in the NIT because they've never played in the NCAA Tournament. William and Mary was even more excited when they found out who their opponent was. The Tribe have already beaten SU 2 ACC schools this season, Maryland and Wake Forest. Besides having success against the ACC, the Tribe are known for playing in close games. 14 times this season Tribe games ended within 3 PTS, 10 of which resulted in SU wins for them. William and Mary finished the season at 22-10 SU and 17-10-1 ATS. The Tribe were 12-7 SU and 12-6 ATS in both road games and neutral court settings this season. The Tribe were 14-3 ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Tribe have only averaged 50 PPG over their past 2 contests. Only 1 of their past 4 opponents has scored more than 60 PTS. 4 of the Tribe's 5 starters have started every single game this season. G David Schneider leads the team in scoring, averaging 15.3 PPG this season. Schneider is also 2nd on the team with 6 RPG and 2.8 APG this season.
William & Mary is 17-4 ATS last 21 games as an underdog.
Under is 11-1 last 12 road games.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 66 (Side of the Day)
Tar Heels (-8.5, O/U 136): It was very fitting that North Carolina lost their last two games SU this season. North Carolina simply hasn't been a good team this year. The Tarheels enter the postseason with a SU record of 16-16 SU. Proof of how overrated this North Carolina is comes in their ATS record. The Tarheels are an awful 10-20 ATS this season. Coach Roy Williams will be coaching his very first NIT game, and the Tarheels will be playing in this tournament for the 1st time since 2003. North Carolina will be playing a home game, but not in their normal arena. Instead, the Tarheels will be playing in their old arena, Carmichael Arena. North Carolina was 13-5 SU and 6-10 ATS in home games this season. The Tarheels were 6-4 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. Senior F Deon Thompson led the team in scoring with 13.6 PPG, and is the only current Tar Heel averaging double digits. PG Larry Drew had 191 assists this season, but also had 102 turnovers.
Tar Heels are 5-15 ATS last 20 games overall.
Under is 6-0 last 6 games as a home favorite.
Key Injuries - F David Wear (hip) is out.
F Ed Davis (wrist) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 68