Tuesday's NIT Action
By Chris David
Two tickets to New York City are on the line tonight when four teams square off in the NIT Quarterfinals. The winners will advance to the semifinals, which will be played at Madison Square Garden next Tuesday and then the championship two days later on Apr. 1.
Let’s take a closer look.
Texas Tech (19-15 SU, 16-12 ATS) at Mississippi (23-10 SU, 18-10 ATS)
The Rebels from Oxford could be called the Runnin’ Rebels these days, especially when you look at their two victories in the NIT. Mississippi blasted Troy (84-65) in the first round and then ran past Memphis (90-81) in the second round. The club covered both games as home favorites and the total went 1-1, but the game against the Trojans just slipped ‘under’ the closing total of 150.
Texas Tech wasn’t expected to get out of the first round by the oddsmakers but the team ripped Seton Hall 87-69 as a nine-point underdog. The game got ugly and eventually led to the firing of the Hall’s head coach Bobby Gonzalez. The second round wasn’t as easy for the Red Raiders, who hung on to beat a feisty Jacksonville team 69-64 form Lubbock. T-Tech failed to cover as an 8 ½-point ‘chalk’ and the closing total of 149 ½ was never threatened.
The books are expecting a shootout in Oxford tonight, with the total being listed between 156 and 157. The Rebels have been installed as nine-point favorites over the Red Raiders.
Ole Miss has four starters averaging at least nine points per game, and is led by point guard Chris Warren. He didn’t shoot well (25%) in the win over Memphis, but he still posted 16 points and added seven assists.
The Rebels have gone 14-4 SU and 7-6-1 ATS at home this season and the four losses came to SEC opponents, plus all were by seven points or less. Texas Tech has struggled to a 5-10 SU record outside of Lubbock this season, but they’ve saved some face with an 8-6 ATS mark.
The winner of this game will meet the winner of Illinois and Dayton in the semifinals from N.Y.
North Carolina (18-16 SU, 11-21 ATS) at Alabama-Birmingham (25-8 SU, 17-13 ATS)
Roy Williams and the Tar Heels suddenly have a chance to make something out of nothing after enduring a terrible season for the premier program. North Carolina stopped William & Mary (80-72) at home in the first round before notching a solid victory over Mississippi State (76-74) in Hattiesburg on Saturday. While those games were high-scoring affairs, tonight’s battle should come at a much slower pace against UAB.
The Blazers reached this point by posting double-digit victories over Coastal Carolina (65-49) and N.C. State (72-52) in the first two rounds. UAB’s defense has been great all year and according to VegasInsider.com handicapper Matt Fargo, it should be a big difference tonight.
He said, “UAB forces close to 14 turnovers per game and even better it is ranked 99th in turnover percentage. Playing at home gives it an even greater edge. The Blazers carry a 25-8 record into Tuesday’s game against the Tar Heels at Bartow Arena and even though the opponent is in a huge down year, getting up for the defending National Champions will not be a problem. A packed house is expected for the game with North Carolina, and so is emotion not generally associated with the NIT. The Blazers lost only three games at home this season with one of those coming in overtime to eventual regular season champion UTEP. The résumé includes double-digit home wins over Cincinnati and Butler.”
“North Carolina is just 2-10 ATS this season when playing teams that allow 64 or fewer PPG. That is mainly because the North Carolina offense has been horrid this season. Prior to William & Mary, it had gone 18 straight games without scoring 80 points and it went the entire conference season without putting up 80 points, the first time ever that has happened. It will look like an NCAA Tournament home game tonight in Birmingham.”
Fargo is right about UNC’s inability to score and it’s hurt the team considerably on the road. The ‘Heels are 4-11 SU and 5-10 ATS on the road this season, two of those coming in conference play.
UAB opened as a four-point favorite and has already spiked up to five at a few offshore outfits. The total is hovering between 136 and 137.
If UNC survives, they could meet Virginia Tech in the NIT semifinals next Tuesday. The Hokies will meet Rhode Island tomorrow for an opportunity to advance.
vegasinsider.com
Texas Tech (19-15, 16-12 ATS) at Ole Miss (23-10, 18-10-1 ATS)
The Red Raiders try for their first three-game winning streak since starting the season 9-0 when they invade the Smith Coliseum in Oxford, Miss., for an NIT quarterfinal matchup with Ole Miss.
Texas Tech closed the regular season with seven straight losses (2-5 ATS), but has gone 3-1 SU and ATS in the postseason. In the Big 12 tournament, the Red Raiders knocked off Colorado 82-67 in the first round, then gave top-seed Kansas a tough battle (80-68 loss as a 17½-point underdog).%key% They followed up last week with a pair of NIT wins over Seton Hall (87-79 as a nine-point road underdog) and Jacksonville (69-64 as a nine-point home favorite).
The Rebels have won and covered six of their last seven, the only misstep coming against Tennessee in the opening round of the SEC tournament, a 76-65 loss as a 2½-point underdog that ended their NCAA Tournament hopes. Ole Miss has cruised into the NIT quarterfinals with easy home wins over Troy (84-65 as a 13-point favorite) and Memphis (90-81 as a four-point chalk).
Despite pounding Seton Hall in the opening round of the NIT, Texas Tech is still just 5-10 away from home, but 8-6 ATS in lined contests. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is riding a four-game SU and ATS home winning streak, running their season record at Smith Coliseum to 14-4 (7-6-1 ATS in lined action).
The Red Raiders have failed to cash in 17 of 23 on Tuesday and six of seven as a road underdog of seven to 12½ points. However, they’re also on positive pointspread runs of 4-1 on the road (all as a ‘dog), 7-2 in non-conference action, 9-4 after a SU victory and 5-2 after a non-cover.
Ole Miss carries nothing but positive ATS trends, including 6-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 5-0 as a favorite, 9-1-1 as a favorite of seven to 12½ points, 6-1-1 as a home chalk in that range, 5-1 in non-league games, 4-1-1 versus the Big 12, 4-1 after a SU victory and 10-4 on Tuesday.
Texas Tech has stayed under the total in four straight overall, but it is also on “over” runs of 22-9 as a visitor, 11-3-1 in non-conference games, 20-9 as a road pup and 17-8 after a non-cover. Ole Miss has gone “over” in nine of 11 on Tuesday, but is otherwise on “under” stretches of 3-1-1 overall, 19-9-1 when coming off a SU victory and 3-1-1 as a favorite of seven to 12½ points (all at home).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OLE MISS
North Carolina (18-16, 11-21 ATS) at UAB (25-8, 17-13-1 ATS)
One year after winning the national championship, North Carolina now finds itself a victory away from reaching the NIT’s Final Four as it treks to Birmingham, Ala., for a clash with the Blazers.
The Tar Heels ended the regular season with a humiliating 32-point loss at archrival Duke, then went one-and-done in the ACC tournament for the first time in history, losing 62-58 to Georgia Tech as a 3½-point underdog. However, North Carolina has sprung to life in the NIT, knocking off William & Mary 80-72 on Tuesday (falling just short as a nine-point home favorite) and upsetting Mississippi State 76-74 on Saturday (cashing as a 7½-point road underdog). Saturday’s victory snapped an 0-3 ATS drought.
UAB’s Big Dance dreams ended when it dropped three in a row to end the season, including a 58-44 upset loss to Southern Miss in the first round of the Conference USA tournament. But the Blazers have gotten their act together in the NIT, blowing out Coastal Carolina last Tuesday (65-49 as a 10½-point home favorite) and North Carolina State on Saturday (72-52 as a 5½-point home chalk). UAB is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games (4-1 ATS at home).
North Carolina hasn’t won three straight games since scoring a trio of double-digit home wins over Marshall, Rutgers and Albany from Dec. 22-Dec. 30. Also, the Tar Heels, who lost eight of their first 10 road games, haven’t won consecutive contests on the highway all year. They’re 4-11 SU and 5-10 ATS in road/neutral-site contests for the season, losing by an average of 7 ppg (75-68). UAB is 15-3 on its home floor (7-9 ATS), beating visitors by an average of 10.1 ppg (69.7-59.6).
Aside from a solid 44-19 ATS mark in its last 63 non-conference games, the Tar Heels sport a slew of negative pointspread trends, including 6-16 overall, 3-9 on the road, 2-10 as an underdog, 0-8 as a pup of less than seven points, 5-12 against winning teams and 1-5 after a spread-cover.
UAB has failed to cash in four of five against the ACC and four of five as a small home favorite (less than seven points). However, the Blazers are also on ATS hot streaks of 6-2-1 overall, 8-3 outside of Conference USA, 5-0 on Tuesday, 5-2 against winning teams and 5-2-1 as a favorite.
UNC has topped the total in four straight non-conference games, but from there it is on “under” runs of 15-4 overall, 5-1 on the road, 6-2 as an underdog, 8-2 as a pup of less than seven points, 5-1 after a SU win and 10-1 after a spread-cover. Likewise, the Blazers have one “over” trend (4-1 vs. the ACC) offset by a bunch of “under” streaks, including 4-1 overall, 7-3 in non-conference action, 5-0 on Tuesday and 6-2 as a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UAB and UNDER
Tips and Trends
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Mississippi Rebels
Red Raiders: Texas Tech is peaking at the perfect time, as they are 1 win away from playing in the semifinals of the NIT at Madison Square Garden. This Red Raiders team is certainly talented, as they can score PTS with anyone. What's ultimately made them successful is their attention to defense, as they've held 3 of their past 4 opponents under 70 PTS. Their only SU loss in their past 4 games was to Kansas, a game that was much more competitive than the final score indicates. Texas Tech enters today with a 19-15 SU and 16-12 ATS record. The Red Raiders struggled during Big 12 play, going 4-12 SU to finish 9th in conference play. The Red Raiders went 5-10 SU and 6-6 ATS away from home this season. Texas Tech was 8-9 ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Red Raiders were 7-3 ATS in non conference games this year. The Red Raiders will continue to focus on defense as long as they are in the NIT. They allowed nearly 77 PPG this season, yet are allowing 10 PPG lower than that in their past 2 games. G John Roberson and F Mike Singletary combine to average nearly 30 PPG for the Red Raiders.
Texas Tech is 4-1 ATS last 5 games as a road underdog.
Over is 22-9 last 31 road games.
Key injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 80
Rebels (-9, O/U 157): Mississippi has won 6 of their past 7 games as they enter the next round of the NIT. Mississippi beat their regional rival Memphis in their last game, which could turn out to be huge for their program. The coaching staff had talked about how important that win was for recruiting battles in the offseason. G Terrico White has scored 48 PTS in the NIT games thus far. The Rebels are 23-10 SU and 18-10-1 ATS entering tonight. The Rebels are 14-4 SU and 8-6 ATS in home games this season. The Rebels are 7-4-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. Mississippi is also 8-3 ATS in non conference games this season. The Rebels have become a perennial power, as they've won at least 20 games in 3 of the past 4 seasons. The Rebels average 78.5 PPG this season, 2nd only to Kentucky in the SEC. Besides White, G Chris Warren is the only other Rebels player averaging double figures. Warren leads the team with 17.1 PPG this season.
Mississippi is 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-1 last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Key injuries - G Will Bogan (hand) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 85 (OVER - Total of the Day)
North Carolina Tar Heels at UAB BLazers
Tar Heels: With a couple of SU wins thus far in the NIT, North Carolina faithful can breathe a huge sigh of relief. That relief is over the fact that no matter what happens the rest of the season, the Tar Heels will finish with an overall winning record this season. Despite all the struggles this North Carolina team has had, they are 18-16 SU and 1 win away from the NIT Semifinals. North Carolina has beaten both William and Mary and Mississippi St. to be in the quarterfinals. The Tar Heels shot nearly 49% in both games combined, 2ith only 22 turnovers thus far in the NIT. That's a huge improvement for a team that averaged nearly 16 turnovers per game this season. North Carolina appears to be growing up right before our eyes, with much respect going to Coach Williams for the job he has done this season. The Tar Heels are 4-11 SU and 4-7 ATS away from home this season. North Carolina is only 3-9 ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Tar Heels really struggle against good defensive teams, as they are 0-7 ATS against teams that allow less than 64 PPG this season. F Deon Thompson leads the Tar Heels with 13.6 PPG this season.
North Carolina is 3-8 ATS last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 15-4 last 19 overall.
Key injuries - F Ed Davis (wrist) is out.
F David Wear (hip) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 61
Blazers (-4, O/U 136): UAB has had 2 blowout SU wins in NIT play thus far. The Blazers have beaten both NC State and Coastal Carolina by a combined 36 PTS. UAB is 25-8 SU and 17-13-1 ATS overall this season. UAB also finished conference play with an 11-5 SU record. UAB is focused on playing as physical as they possibly can, and they are excited to play last years national champion in front of their home crowd. The Blazers were 15-3 SU and 9-6 ATS in home games this season. UAB was 12-7-1 AT as a single digit favorite this season. The Blazers have held 6 of their past 7 opponents under 60 PTS. No opponent has scored more than 70 PTS against the Blazers in their past 9 games overall. Non conference opponents struggle with the brand of basketball UAB plays, as the Blazers are a profitable 9-5 ATS against non conference opponents. 3 Blazers average double figures in PTS this season, led by F Elijah Millsap. Millsap is a very powerful and talented player, as he averages team highs of 16 PPG and 9.6 RPG for the Blazers.
UAB is 8-3 ATS last 11 non conference games.
Under is 7-3 last 10 non conference games.
Key injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 71 (Side of the Day)