Thursday's NIT Semifinals
By Brian Edwards
Bettors have just three NCAA Tournament games remaining, but there’s still action to be had Tuesday in the NIT semifinals at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Let’s take an in-depth look at both contests before discussing a few other topics in Bonus Nuggets.
**Dayton vs. Ole Miss**
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Ole Miss (24-10 straight up, 18-11-1 against the spread) as a one-point favorite with a total of 142. As of Monday night, most books had the game as a pick ‘em with the total in the 141-142 range.
Dayton (23-12 SU, 16-15-1 ATS) had been to back-to-back NCAA Tournaments before just missing out on making the field this season. To make amends, the Flyers have won three in a row in the NIT, including a 77-71 win at Illinois in the tournament’s quarterfinals. They won outright as three-point underdogs behind Chris Johnson’s 18 points and seven rebounds.
Ole Miss has won seven of its last eight games while going 6-2 ATS. The Rebels earned a trip to the Big Apple by beating Texas Tech 90-87 in double overtime. However, they failed to cover the number as nine-point home favorites. Chris Warren scored a team-high 18 points for the winners, while Terrico White and Murphy Holloway chipped in 17 points apiece. Holloway also pulled down 11 rebounds and had five steals.
Before knocking off the Red Raiders, Ole Miss beat Memphis 90-81 as a four-point home favorite in the second round of the NIT. White led five double-figure scorers with 21 points, while Warren had 16 points and seven assists. In the first round of the NIT, the Rebels beat up on Troy 84-65 as 13-point favorites. White exploded for 27 points and seven rebounds against the Trojans.
Brian Gregory’s squad has taken the cash in all three of its NIT victories. Prior to dropping the Illini, Dayton opened the tournament by destroying Illinois St. 63-42 as a 7 ½-point favorite. Next, the Flyers went on the road and dominated in-state rival Cincinnati, 81-66, as three-point underdogs.
Chris Wright leads the Flyers in scoring (13.8 points per game), rebounding (7.1 RPG, field-goal percentage (51.3%) and steals (1.4 SPG).
Ole Miss head coach has this to say about the Flyers (per RebelSports.net): "We're going to have to play for 40 minutes. They'll play in-your-face basketball. They play attack basketball. They are incredibly fast in transition."
These schools haven’t met since 1980 when Dayton knocked off the Rebels by a 72-70 count.
The ‘under’ is 16-14 overall for Dayton, but the Flyers have seen the ‘over’ hit at a 5-1 clip in their last six games.
The ‘over’ is 15-13-2 overall for Ole Miss.
Tip-off at MSG is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
**North Carolina vs. Rhode Island**
LVSC opened this game as a pick ‘em with a total of 150. As of Monday night, most spots had Rhode Island (26-9 SU, 14-17-1 ATS) as a one-point ‘chalk’ with the total in the 150-151 range.
North Carolina (19-16 SU, 12-21 ATS) has salvaged an otherwise forgettable campaign by winning three consecutive games in the NIT. The Tar Heels have played three nail-biters, prevailing at home against William & Mary before going on the road to win at Mississippi St. and at UAB. The Tar Heels beat the Blazers 60-55 as 4 ½-point underdogs. Deon Thompson paced UNC with 14 points and 12 boards.
Rhode Island captured a 79-72 win at Va. Tech as a 6 ½-point underdog in the NIT quarterfinals. Delroy James was the catalyst for the Rams, producing 18 points, six rebounds and four blocked shots. Lamonte Ulmer and Akeem Richmond added 13 points apiece.
URI’s NIT run began with a 76-64 triumph over Northwestern as a six-point home favorite. Next, the Rams edged Nevada 85-83, but the Wolf Pack took the money catching 8 ½ points. James scored a game-high 34 points in the win over Nevada.
Roy Williams’ team won its NIT opener by sending the Tribe home 80-72 as a nine-point home favorite. The Tar Heels went to The Hump in Starkville next, besting the Bulldogs 76-74 thanks to Larry Drew II’s game winner just before the horn went off. UNC beat MSU as a 7 ½-point underdog.
The ‘under’ is 20-10 overall for UNC, 19-7 in its last 26 outings.
The ‘under’ is 17-13-1 overall for the Rams.
ESPN2 will have the telecast approximately 30 minutes after the conclusion of Ole Miss-Dayton.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
It really is a tired refrain: Duke got all the calls. But here we are, once again, shaking our heads in disgust at how the Blue Devils got the favorable whistles in yet another crucial NCAA Tournament game. Before I go any further, let me clearly state that I think this tournament has had excellent officiating for the most part. Other than New Mexico St. having a beef with the refs in its narrow loss to Michigan St. in the first round, there’s been little drama involving the zebras. Until Sunday’s South Region final in Houston, that is. That’s where Duke center Brian Zoubek should’ve fouled out with his team trailing by four points. Instead, he ‘took a charge’ and later got an offensive rebound and assist that led to a clutch 3-pointer, as the Blue Devils advanced to the Final Four for the first time since 2004. They, with a little help from their friends in stripes, beat Baylor 78-71 as five-point favorites. With 1:19 left, a technical that should’ve gone both ways went only against the Bears. The result was two free throws, the same amount of points that were needed to beat Baylor backers.
The assumption is that UNC sophomore center Ed Davis, who is out for the season with a broken wrist, is returning to Chapel Hill for his junior year. Davis is listed as the fifth pick in the 2011 Mock Draft at NBADraft.net. The same website has future UNC teammate Harrison Barnes, who will join the Tar Heels as a freshman next season, as the No. 1 overall selection in 2011. Rebels’ sophomore guard Terrico White is listed as the 14th pick in the same draft.
Oregon should be focusing on trying to get Brad Stevens away from Butler instead of Tom Izzo from Michigan St.
Donnie Jones has been hired away from Marshall to replace Kirk Speraw at Central Florida. Jones, a long-time assistant to Billy Donovan at Florida, was the head coach of the Thundering Herd for three seasons, going 55-41 overall. Jones took Marshall to the CollegeInsider.com post-season tournament this year and his team finished with a 24-10 ledger.
In Game 1 of a best-of-three series Monday night, Virginia Commonwealth beat Saint Louis 68-56 as a nine-point home favorite. Game 2 will be played Wednesday in St. Louis. Game 3, if necessary, would also be in St. Louis on Friday.
vegasinsider.com
Dayton (23-12, 16-15-1 ATS) vs. Ole Miss (24-10, 18-11-1 ATS)
The NIT Final Four kicks off at Madison Square Garden where Dayton shoots for its third straight victory away from home when it battles the Rebels.
The Flyers stumbled down the stretch in the Atlantic 10, losing six of their final nine games (1-7-1 ATS). However, they’ve taken advantage of a second season in the NIT, posting three impressive victories by an average of 14 points per game. After crushing Illinois State at home (63-42 as a seven-point favorite) in the opening round, Dayton went to nearby Cincinnati last Monday and rolled 81-66 as a three-point pup followed by Wednesday’s 77-71 upset win at Illinois, again as a three-point underdog.
Ole Miss needed double-overtime to outlast Texas Tech last Tuesday, winning 90-87 but falling way short as an nine-point home favorite. Including previous NIT blowout home wins over Troy (84-65) and Memphis (90-81), the Rebels arrive in the Big Apple having won seven of their last eight games (6-2 ATS). However, the one loss came in their most recent neutral-site contest, a 76-65 setback to Tennessee (as a 2½-point ‘dog) in the SEC tournament.
Despite the consecutive upsets of Cincinnati and Illinois, Dayton is still just 7-10 away from home this year (2-3 in neutral-site games). Ole Miss is 9-6 on the highway (3-2 at neutral venues). In their five neutral-site games, both the Flyers and Rebels are shooting 44.6 percent from the field and holding opponents to 42.2 percent. However, Ole Miss has outscored its five neutral-site opponents by 3.2 ppg (79.6-76.2) while Dayton has averaged 70.0 ppg and allowed 69.8.
The Flyers have now cashed in seven consecutive non-conference games, and they’re 4-1-1 ATS in their last six after a spread-cover. However, they’ve failed to cover in four straight at neutral sites and five of their last six on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is on pointspread upticks of 6-2 overall, 5-2 in non-league action and 14-6 after a non-cover.
Dayton has stayed under the total in seven of nine non-conference contests and four of five on Tuesday. However, the over is on runs of 5-1 for the Flyers overall, 5-1 for the Flyers after a SU win, 3-1-1 for Ole Miss at neutral sites and 10-2 for Ole Miss on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OLE MISS and OVER
North Carolina (19-16, 12-21 ATS) vs. Rhode Island (26-9, 14-17-1 ATS)
One year after winning its fifth national championship, North Carolina is once again competing in a Final Four, only this time it’s the NIT as it takes on the upstart Rams.
After going just 5-12 in the ACC season – winning consecutive games just once – the Tar Heels have ripped off three straight NIT victories, all in narrow fashion. It started with an 80-72 victory over William & Mary, falling just short as a nine-point home favorite, followed by road upsets of Mississippi State (76-74 as a 7½-point underdog) and UAB (60-55 as a 4½-point pup). It’s the first time since the calendar flipped to 2010 that North Carolina has won three straight games, and the Heels haven’t had a four-game win streak since starting the season 4-0.
Rhode Island jumped out to a 19-3 start, then closed out the regular season by losing five of seven. However, since the Atlantic 10 tournament tipped off, the Rams are 5-1, alternating spread-covers in those six games. Rhode Island began the NIT with a pair of home wins over Northwestern (76-64 as a six-point favorite) and Nevada (85-83 as an 8½-point chalk), then went to Virginia Tech on Wednesday and knocked off the Hokies 79-72 as a 6½-point road underdog.
While the Tar Heels cashed in their two upset wins over Ole Miss and UAB to get to New York, they haven’t had three straight ATS wins all season. Additionally, they’re in pointspread slumps of 7-16 overall, 3-10 as an underdog, 1-8 as a pup of less than seven points, 3-8 after a SU win and 2-5 after a spread-cover. On the bright side, UNC has cashed in seven of 10 neutral-site outings, 45 of 64 non-conference games and five of seven on Tuesday.
The Rams have covered in four of five outside the Atlantic 10, but they’re in ATS funks of 7-12-1 overall, 3-10-1 after a SU win and 7-19-2 after a spread-cover.
Both squads have been involved in a plethora of low-scoring games recently. The Tar Heels are on “under” runs of 19-7 overall, 4-1 as an underdog, 5-1 as a pup of less than seven points, 5-2 as a neutral-site pup, 5-1 on Tuesday, 6-1 after a SU win and 13-3 after an ATS setback. Meanwhile, Rhode Island carries “under” trends of 7-0 at neutral sites, 5-0 as a favorite at neutral sites, 4-1 when laying less than seven points anywhere and 11-5 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Pacific (23-11, 17-15 ATS) at Missouri State (23-12, 16-19 ATS)
Pacific tries to end it season with a seventh consecutive road victory when it travels to the Hammons Student Center in Springfield, Mo., to battle the Bears in the College Insider championship game.
The Tigers have won six of their last seven overall SU and ATS, and going back to Feb. 17 they’ve won and covered six straight road games. Pacific has been forced to hit the highway for all three games of this tournament, toppling Loyola Marymount (86-76 as a one-point chalk), Northern Colorado (63-59 as a two-point underdog) and Appalachian State (64-56 as a five-point pup). Throw in three Big West road wins over Long Beach State, Cal State Fullerton and Cal State Northridge, and the Tigers have won six in a row on the road by an average of 13.2 ppg.
Missouri State has won six of its last eight games, but is just 2-6 ATS during this stretch. The Bears have been at home since this tournament started, first knocking off Middle Tennessee State (87-79 as a nine-point chalk) and Louisiana Tech (69-40 as a 7½-point favorite). They reached the championship game by upending Missouri Valley Conference rival Creighton 67-61 Wednesday, coming up just shy as a 6½-point favorite.
The Tigers are now 12-6 (10-8 ATS) in true road games this year, outscoring opponents by 6.1 ppg (66.1-60) while shooting 46 percent from the field and holding opponents to 39.8 percent. Missouri State is 17-2 on its home floor, but just 10-9 ATS, averaging 73.4 ppg (45.8 percent shooting) and limiting visitors to 62.4 ppg (41.7 percent).
Pacific has cashed in six of seven overall, six straight on the highway, four straight as a ‘dog of less than seven points, six straight on the road against teams with a winning home record and four of five against winning teams. However, the Tigers are still just 8-17-2 ATS in their last 27 as a road pup.
The Bears sport nothing but negative ATS trends, including 1-5 overall, 2-5 at home (all as a favorite, 1-5 as a home chalk of less than seven points, 4-9 after a SU win, 15- against winning teams and 1-4-1 on Tuesday.
The Tigers are on “under” runs of 5-2 on the road and 4-0 as an underdog (all on the road), while Missouri State has stayed low in five of six at home (all as a favorite of less than seven points) and six of eight after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PACIFIC and UNDER
NCAAB News and Notes
Dayton won four of last five games after 1-4 end to regular season; they won last two games on road (Cincinnati/Illinois), and is 14-3 outside the A-14, losing to Villanova by 6, K-State by 8 (both on neutral floors) at New Mexico by a hoop. Ole Miss won seven of last eight games, but played first three NIT games on home floor. Rebels are 15-2 outside the SEC, losing to Villanova by 12, at West Virginia by 10. These teams were at same tourney in November, but didn't play each other.
North Carolina won first three NIT games by 8-2-5 points, after losing 12 of previous 16 games; Tar Heels are 13-4 outside ACC, winning last two NIT games on road (Miss State/UAB). UNC is 4-8 vs spread as a non-league favorite this season. Rhode Island is 15-1 outside A-14, with wins in last three games by 12-2-7 points (scored 80 ppg); Rams won at BC by 11, Va Tech by 7 in only two games vs ACC teams this season.
Pacific hasn't played home game since Feb 27; they're 6-1 in last seven games, getting upset by Long Beach in Big West tourney. Tigers won last six true road games, winning in this tourney at LMU, No Colorado and Appalachian State. Missouri State won its three tourney games at home, winning by 8-28-6 points; they're 14-1 outside MVC, losing by 4 in OT at Arkansas. MVC generally considered stronger than Big West.
Tips and Trends
Dayton Flyers vs. Mississippi Rebels
Flyers: Dayton has had lofty expectations since the beginning of the season. While they haven't lived up to their hopes during the regular season, the Flyers are playing great in the postseason. Dayton has beaten 2 proud programs on the road in their last 2 games, Cincinnati and Illinois. Dayton is excited to play Mississippi, as the Flyers have had their most success against teams that play uptempo. Dayton has scored at least 70 PTS in 4 of their past 5 contests. Dayton is 23-12 SU and 16-15-1 ATS overall this season. The Flyers are 7-10 SU and 8-8-1 ATS away from home this season, including 2-3 SU in neutral court settings. Dayton is 5-4-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Dayton has done well outside of conference play, going 10-4 ATS against non-conference opponents this season. F Chris Wright leads the Flyers with 13.8 PPG and 7.1 RPG this season. Wright was a 1st team A-10 conference player, but still needs to be more consistent during games. F Chris Johnson is the only other Flyers player that averages double figures this season. Johnson averages 11.5 PPG and 6.8 RPG this season for Dayton.
Dayton is 7-0 ATS last 7 non-conference games.
Under is 7-2 last 9 non-conference games.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 75
Rebels (-1, O/U 142): Mississippi played a thriller against Texas Tech in their last game, eventually winning 90-87 in double overtime. Mississippi has won 7 of their last 8 games SU to make it to New York for the NIT Semi-Finals. The biggest reason for their success in the NIT has been their offense. The Rebels are averaging 88 PPG in their 3 tournament games thus far. This is the 2nd time in school history that the Rebels have played in the NIT Semi-Finals. Mississippi is 24-10 SU and 18-11-1 ATS overall this season. The Rebels are 9-6 SU and 11-4 ATS away from home this season, including 3-2 SU in neutral court contests. The Rebels are 7-5-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. G Terrico White has been unstoppable in the NIT, averaging 21.7 PPG. White has shot better than 46% from the field and better than 40% from the 3 point line during this tournament. F Murphy Holloway is averaging 11.3 PPG and 9.7 RPG over his past 10 games for the Rebels. Mississippi plays at a frenetic pace, and it typically catches unfamiliar teams off guard. The Rebels are 8-4 ATS in non-conference games this season.
Mississippi is 6-2 ATS last 8 games overall.
Over is 3-1-1 last 5 neutral site games.
Key Injuries - G Will Bogan (hand) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 76 (OVER - Total of the Day)
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Rhode Island Rams
Tar Heels: North Carolina is easily playing their best basketball of the season right now. North Carolina has a chance to win 20 games SU for the 6th consecutive season, no small feat considering just a few weeks ago they were staring a losing season right in their faces. The Tar Heels are 19-16 SU and 12-21 ATS overall this season. North Carolina is 5-11 SU and 6-10 ATS away from home this season, including 1-3 SU in neutral court settings. North Carolina is 4-10 ATS as the listed underdog this season, including SU wins in each of their past 2 games as the underdog in the NIT. The Tar Heels are 7-9 ATS in non-conference games this season. North Carolina has yet to win 3 consecutive games ATS this season, and they will have that opportunity tonight. PG Larry Drew is growing up in this NIT tournament, as his decision making has improved dramatically. Drew has had 12 more assists than turnovers in his past 2 games. Another Freshman, F John Henson has averaged 11.7 PPG and 7 RPG during the NIT. F Deon Thompson has averaged 14 PPG and 8.3 RPG over his past 3 games to show his Senior leadership to his young Tar Heels teammates.
North Carolina is 7-3 ATS last 10 neutral site games.
Under is 4-1 last 5 games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - F Ed Davis (wrist) is out.
F David Wear (hip) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 70
Rams (-1, O/U 150.5): Rhode Island is starting to resemble the team that started the season 19-3 SU. Despite losing 6 of their last 10 games SU of the regular season, the Rams find themselves 1 game away from playing for the NIT Championship. Rhode Island is very familiar with the ACC conference, as they've gone 2-0 SU against Boston College and Virginia Tech. The Rams are averaging nearly 80 PPG during the NIT tournament thus far. 3 different Rams players average double figures in PTS this season, led by G Keith Cochran. Cochran averages a team high 14.1 PPG this season. F Delroy James averages 13.2 PPG and 5.2 RPG this season, and recently scored a career high 34 PTS against Nevada. Rhode Island will be looking to push the pace today and play a full court game for the maximum 40 minutes tonight. Rhode Island is 26-9 SU and 14-17-1 ATS overall this season. The Rams are 11-7 SU and 10-7-1 ATS away from home this season, including 2-1 SU in neutral court games. Rhode Island is 7-9 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. The Rams have struggled with extended breaks between games, going 0-2 ATS with more than 5 days off this season.
Rhode Island is 4-1 ATS last 5 non-conference games.
Under is 7-0 last 7 neutral site games.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 79 (Side of the Day)