NIT Semifinals
By Judd Hall
Sure, the big Final Four is set to go down this weekend, but we have another semifinal going down at Madison Square Garden in New York City. The NIT semis are on ESPN2 this Tuesday and pits teams that were disappointments up against squads that finished just shy of making the NCAA Tournament. Who will get to cut down the nets in Gotham?
Baylor Bears vs. San Diego State Aztecs - 7:00 p.m. EDT
--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the line for this matchup with Baylor (23-14 straight up, 12-17 against the spread) as a 1 ½-point favorite with a total 136. As of Monday morning, the Bears are one-point faves with the total standing still.
--The Bears find themselves in the Big Apple after escaping against Auburn as three-point road ‘dogs on March 24, 74-72. Baylor had four players register double-digits on the score sheet, which isn’t that difficult a feat when your team hits 50 percent of its shots from the field. But LaceDarius outshined the rest with 19 points and nine points. Curtis Jerrells certainly did his part in scoring 16 points with eight helpers. And in fairness to our Insider Edge host, Kevin Rogers tallied a double-double with 15 points and 12 boards.
--One of the reasons for Baylor’s late season success is the keep moving the ball around as they did against the Tigers last week. That constant rotation has opened up lanes to get the ball into Rogers for some quick points and cleared the perimeter for long range attempts. The proof is in the pudding there as the Bears are hitting 56.1 percent overall and 43.9 percent from three-point land.
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--San Diego State (26-9 SU, 18-12-1 ATS) has made the long trip East thanks to a 70-66 triumph over the Gaels on March 25, barely covering the spread as a 3 ½-point home “chalk.” Billy White led the Aztecs with 17 points, while Ryan Amoroso had 12 points and six rebounds.
--The Aztecs were able to get to the next level in part to St. Mary’s Patrick Mills and his inability to make shots. SDSU connected on 44.3 percent of its field goals with the Gaels hitting 26 of 67 of their attempts. Sure, that percents for SMC isn’t all that bad, but Mills made only seven of the 24 shots he took…the worst average he’s had since tanking against Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference Tournament.
--Bettors haven’t profited when taking the Bears as single-digits favorites, posting a 4-6 SU and 2-8 ATS mark this season.
--San Diego State is 3-5 SU and 4-3-1 ATS when tabbed as a single-digit pup.
--Take a long look at the ‘under’ when you’re at the betting shop as it’s 12-3-1 in Baylor’s past 16 contests and the Aztecs have seen it go 11-3 in the last 14 tilts they’ve played as ‘dogs.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish- 9:20 p.m. EDT
--LVSC originally installed the Fighting Irish as 4 ½-point favorites with a total of 139. The gambling public pushed that down to 3 ½, but seems to have settled on four at most sportsbooks. The total is now posted at 138.
--Penn State (25-11 SU, 16-12-1 ATS) finds itself in NYC after pulling off an upset over the Gators as a 10 ½-point road underdog on March 24, 71-62. Jamelle Cornley played despite having a banged up shoulder. And his presence was felt by all as he registered 23 points with 12 boards in the victory. Stanley Pringle put in 15 points with four assists and five rebounds as well.
--While the Nittany Lions have played very well in their NIT run, they’re doing it without solid production from Talor Battle. The sophomore guard has scored just 29 points over his last two games. I’ll grant that isn’t terrible, but Battle is hitting 36 percent of his shots against Rhode Island and Florida…his season average is 40.4 percent from the field. PSU needs him to find his scoring touch and stop coughing the ball up (six turnovers in L2G) to win the NIT title.
--Notre Dame (21-14 SU, 11-18 ATS) made it to this point doing what they’ve done all season, rely on Luke Harangody. The bruising junior forward tossed 30 points in with 11 rebounds for good measure. Kyle McAlarney put in 15 points as well as the Irish beat Kentucky as 3 ½-point faves last Wednesday, 77-67.
--Like I mentioned earlier, the Irish depend on Harangody. And that is something can’t afford to do against Penn State. Notre Dame’s top target completed 10 of 22 shots, the rest of team connected on 15 of its 34 field goal attempts. Harangody also accounted for 40.1 percent of the total rebounds against the Wildcats. That won’t hold up when you take into account that the Nittany Lions out-rebounded UF by 10 and the Rams by nine.
--Penn State has been lousy as a single-digit ‘dog all year long as evidenced by its 4-8 SU and 5-6-1 ATS. The ‘over’ was lucrative for bettors in this spot, cashing in at an 8-4 clip.
--The Fighting Irish is just 4-7 SU against clubs from the Big Ten Conference since 2000. For our purposes, they’re 6-4-1 ATS in these games.
--Notre Dame does have one advantage over the Nittany Lions in this venue. The Irish upended Penn State in the 2000 NIT semis as a pick ‘em, 73-52.
--The ‘under’ is 8-1 in the Irish’s last nine tilts. But the ‘over’ is 4-1 in Penn State’s last five matches as a pup.
vegasinsider.com
Baylor Bears vs. San Diego State Aztecs
- The fans at Madison Square Garden will be treated to a game between the Baylor Bears and the San Diego State Aztecs when they take their seats on Tuesday for the semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament.
LaceDarius Dunn went for 19 points and nine rebounds to lift Baylor past Auburn 74-72 in the quarterfinals last Tuesday.
Baylor cashed as 4-point road underdogs as the game played over the 145.5-point total set by oddsmakers.
San Diego State advanced to the semifinals by defeating Saint Mary's 70-66 last Wednesday. San Diego State covered the 3.5-point spread, and the 136 points made it OVER the posted total of 129.
Billy White led San Diego State with 17 points in that win.
Team records:
Baylor: 23-14 SU, 12-16-1 ATS
San Diego State: 26-9 SU, 19-11-2 ATS
Baylor most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 4-4
After playing Auburn are 2-0
After a win are 5-5
San Diego State most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 6-4
After playing Saint Mary's are 4-1
After a win are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
Baylor is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Baylor's last 14 games
Baylor is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Baylor is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games
San Diego State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
- The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Penn State Nittany Lions will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at Madison Square Garden in the semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament.
Luke Harangody tossed in 30 points with 11 boards for a double-double last Wednesday as Notre Dame defeated Kentucky 77-67 in the tourney quarterfinals.
Notre Dame covered the 3.5-point spread, while the combined 144 points went as a PUSH against the posted total of 144.
Kyle McAlarney added 15 points and Ryan Ayers chipped in with 14 in that win.
Jamelle Cornley went for 23 points and 12 rebounds to lead Penn State over Florida in the quarterfinals last Tuesday.
Penn State cashed as 11-point road underdogs as the teams played under the 136-point total set by oddsmakers.
Team records:
Notre Dame: 21-14 SU, 12-18 ATS
Penn State: 25-11 SU, 17-12 ATS
Notre Dame most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 6-2
After playing Kentucky are 4-1
After a win are 6-4
Penn State most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 4-4
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Notre Dame is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Penn State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Penn State's last 7 games
Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Bradley Braves
- The Old Dominion Monarchs and the Bradley Braves will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at Carver Arena in the championship game of the CollegeInsider.com tournament.
Old Dominion advanced to the championship game with an 81-43 rout of James Madison last Thursday. Old Dominion easily covered the 7.5-point spread, but the combined 124 points fell UNDER the night's posted total of 130.
Gerald Lee scored 18 points, while Frank Hassell had 16 points and 13 rebounds for a double-double.
Bradley scored 33 points in the second half and ran to a 59-49 victory over Pacific last Wednesday night in the tourney semfinals. Bradley covered the 5.5-point spread, while the 108 points went UNDER the game's posted total of 130.
Sam Willard had 10 points with nine rebounds.
Team records:
Old Dominion: 24-10 SU, 13-16 ATS
Bradley: 21-14 SU, 16-15 ATS
Old Dominion most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 6-1
After playing James Madison are 6-4
After a win are 8-2
Bradley most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-4
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Old Dominion is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Bradley is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Bradley's last 11 games
Bradley is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
BAYLOR (23 - 14) vs. SAN DIEGO ST (26 - 9)
Top Trends for this game.
BAYLOR is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
BAYLOR is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
BAYLOR is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NOTRE DAME (21 - 14) vs. PENN ST (25 - 11)
Top Trends for this game.
NOTRE DAME is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
NOTRE DAME is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
OLD DOMINION (24 - 10) at BRADLEY (21 - 14)
Top Trends for this game.
OLD DOMINION is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
OLD DOMINION is 47-72 ATS (-32.2 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
OLD DOMINION is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
OLD DOMINION is 74-102 ATS (-38.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
BRADLEY is 91-66 ATS (+18.4 Units) in all home games since 1997.
BRADLEY is 91-66 ATS (+18.4 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
BRADLEY is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
BRADLEY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
BAYLOR vs. SAN DIEGO STATE
Baylor is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Baylor is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games
San Diego State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
San Diego State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
OLD DOMINION vs. BRADLEY
Old Dominion is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Old Dominion's last 6 games
Bradley is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Bradley is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
NOTRE DAME vs. PENN STATE
Notre Dame is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Notre Dame is 7-14 ATS in its last 21 games
Penn State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Penn State's last 7 games
NIT Tournament - Semifinals - New York, NY
BAYLOR vs. SAN DIEGO STATE
BAYLOR: 4-11 ATS as favorite
SAN DIEGO ST: 13-2 Under off 3 non-conf games
NOTRE DAME vs. PENN STATE
NOTRE DAME: 9-0 Under as neutral court favorite
PENN STATE: 1-8 ATS off SU dog win
CIT Tournament – Championship
OLD DOMINION vs. BRADLEY
OLD DOMINION: 1-11 ATS off 10+ point conference win
BRADLEY: 6-0 ATS off BB Home wins
NCAAB Today
NIT
Interesting contrast in styles; Baylor (13th in offensive efficiency) likes to score the ball, San Diego State (20th on defense) is a terrific defensive team; Aztecs won eight of last nine games, losing only by hoop to Utah in MWC final- they beat Kansas State of Big 12 70-52 in second round, holding Wildcats to 31.7% from floor. Baylor starts three seniors; they won five of last six games since horrible 2-10 skid to end its conference season. Bears are 14-2 outside of conference play.
Notre Dame won three home games to get back to New York, where it lost 74-62 to West Virginia in second round of Big East tourney three weeks ago. Irish split pair vs Big 11 teams, beating doormat Indiana by 38 in Maui, then losing by five to Ohio State two weeks later. Penn St. is 8-3 in last 11 games, with wins at Illinois, Florida. Irish start pair of seniors and three juniors, but don't sub much. Nittany Lions start three sophs and a pair of seniors.
CIT
Bradley won five of last six games, but covered just two of last seven; one win was in double OT vs Drake, another on 70-foot heave at horn to nip Oakland. Braves won their last six home games. Old Dominion won nine of last ten games, losing to VCU in CAA semis by 8; they won four of last five road games, but haven't been on foreign soil since winning in OT Feb 28 at Northeastern. Both side have one senior starter.
Tourney Reasearch
By Indiancowboy
Baylor vs. San Diego State
This game is in Madison Square Garden in neutral footing. SD State had its shaky moments against St. Mary's at home but still managed to win by 4 and get the cover. This game is a pick-em as you can choose between the home team and the "better" team from the big 12. SD State has played tough though beating Weber State, Kansas State (another Big 12 team) by 12 and St. Mary's by 4. Baylor has played extremely strong defeating Virginia Tech on the road, Auburn on the road and Georgetown at home. They have put up 74 points on GT at home, 84 against Virginia Tech and 74 against Auburn on the road. Remember, Baylor also defeated Arizona State in neutral footing and Washington St. on the road this year. SD State has put up 65 against Weber State, 70 against Kansas State and 70 against St. Mary's. It's tough to go against Baylor at this point given how they have been playing and it is important to note that the total has been going down since its opening.
Old Dominion vs. Bradley
Here is how Bradley has gotten here. They are a top 125 team facing a top 100 team in ODU today at home. Bradley shoots 71.2% from the line, beat Austin Peay 81-74, beat Oakland 75-74 at home, Pacific 59-49 and now faces the highest rank of all of these teams in ODU. ODU beat Belmont at home by 8, Citadel at home by 8 and crushed James Madison at home by 38 and now hits the road to face Bradley. ODU won at top 100 schools in Northeasern and Duquesne, but also lost at Georgia State (225), George Mason (90) and Hofstra (top 200). It is tough to say, but laying -2 with the home team is not that bad as Bradley has had the tougher SOS by nearly a 100 spots.