BIG EAST TOURNAMENT
(at New York)
Providence (12-18, 10-15-1 ATS) vs. Seton Hall (18-11, 8-15 ATS)
These teams closed the regular-season against each other on Saturday, with Providence falling 92-80 as a one-point home underdog. The Friars enter the conference tournament at Madison Square Garden on a 10-game losing skid (3-6-1 ATS), and they’ve lost 12 of their last 13 since starting Big East play 3-2 SU and ATS. Providence’s defense has been nonexistent, giving up more than 90 points in three of the last four games and seven of the last 13. Furthermore, the Friars surrendered more than 80 points in 13 of 18 conference contests.
With Seton Hall’s win at Providence on Saturday, the Pirates are now on a 6-2 run, and they’ve followed up a 1-6 ATS slump with consecutive spread-covers (both on the road). Seton Hall has scored 83, 85 and 92 points in its last three games, and has tallied at least 76 points six times during its current 6-2 streak.
Seton Hall has won three of the last four in this rivalry both SU and ATS, and the winning team has scored 88, 98 and 92 points in the last three clashes. The Pirates are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head battles, the ‘dog has covered in seven of the last 10 and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last nine meetings.
Both teams are struggling at the betting window. Providence is in ATS slumps of 2-6-1 overall (all in the Big East and all against winning teams), 1-4 at neutral sites and 1-3-1 after a non-cover. The Pirates have failed to cover in 14 of 20 overall, 13 of 19 against Big East foes, 19 of 26 at neutral sites and eight of 10 after a SU victory. On the bright side, Seton Hall is 5-2 ATS both in its last seven Tuesday contests and its last seven versus losing teams.
The over is on runs of 4-1 for the Friars overall (all in the Big East), 5-1 for the Friars against winning teams, 4-1 for Seton Hall at neutral sites and 5-1 in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SETON HALL and OVER
Rutgers (15-16, 12-14 ATS) vs. Cincinnati (16-14, 7-18 ATS)
Rutgers has followed up a modest three-game winning streak (2-0 in Big East play) by dropping four of its last five, including Saturday’s ugly 83-54 loss at Pittsburgh, failing to cover as a 14½-point road underdog. The Scarlet Knights started Big East play with eight consecutive SU and ATS losses, then covered in seven of their next eight games (5-3 SU) and now have dropped two in a row SU and ATS.
After two narrow losses to eighth-ranked West Virginia (74-68 on the road) and ninth-ranked Villanova (77-73 at home), the Bearcats went to No. 19 Georgetown for Saturday’s regular-season finale and got boat-raced 74-47 as a seven-point road underdog. Cincinnati has lost seven of its last nine games and is 4-14 ATS since the Big East season kicked off.
One of the Bearcats’ four spread-covers in conference play came back on Jan. 2 at Rutgers, a 65-58 win as a five-point road favorite. Cincinnati 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings after the Scarlet Knights went 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in the first three clashes since the Big East expanded in 2005-06. The favorite has gotten the money in each of the last four meetings.
Rutgers has cashed in seven of 10 overall (all in conference) and five of six on Tuesday, but it is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral-site games, 3-9 ATS in its last 12 after a SU victory, 8-20-1 ATS in its last 29 after a non-cover and 5-11 ATS in its last 16 against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Bearcats’ are in pointspread ruts of 7-22 overall (4-14 last 18), 6-20 in the Big East, 5-16 after a SU defeat, 4-13 after a non-cover, 1-4 against losing teams and 1-5 on Tuesday.
The over is 6-2 in Rutgers’ last eight games after a loss of more than 20 points and 4-0 in Cincy’s last four after a loss of more than 20 points, but the Bearcats are also on “under” stretches of 5-0 at neutral sites, 4-0 on Tuesday and 9-3 after a loss. Finally, this year’s meeting stayed under the total following a 3-0 “over” surge in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: RUTGERS
HORIZON LEAGUE TOURNAMENT
(at Indianapolis)
Wright State (20-11, 11-15-2 ATS) at (12) Butler (27-4, 12-19 ATS)
Wright State advanced to the Horizon League tournament championship game with Saturday’s 69-50 rout of Detroit as a 5½-point favorite at Hinkle Fieldhouse, which is Butler’s home court. The Raiders have alternated wins and losses in their last five games, but they’re 9-3 SU in their last 12 contests (all in the Horizon). On the downside, Wright State is just 4-10-2 ATS in its last 16 outings, and it has posted consecutive spread-covers just once since starting the season 4-0 ATS.
Butler, shooting for its third consecutive Horizon League championship, has a 19-game winning streak on the line today, and it also sports a 19-0 record in conference. On Saturday, the Bulldogs hosted Wisconsin-Milwaukee in semifinal action and pulled away late for a 68-59 victory, falling short as a 14½-point favorite. Butler has turned up the heat defensively, holding six of its last seven opponents and 10 of the last 13 under 60 points.
The Bulldogs swept the season series from the Raiders, winning 77-65 as a 1½-point road underdog and 74-62 as an eight-point home chalk. Since losing three straight to Wright State – including the 2007 conference tournament championship game – Butler has won six in a row in this rivalry, going 4-1 ATS. The home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings, the underdog is 6-3 ATS in the last nine and the SU winner is 9-2 ATS in the last 11.
Wright State has cashed in seven of eight on Tuesday, but from there the pointspread trends turn negative, including 1-11-1 on the road, 4-10-2 in conference, 1-4-1 after a SU win, 1-5 following a spread-cover, 3-8-2 against teams with a winning record and 2-10 against opponents with a winning percentage above .600. Butler is on ATS slides of 2-5 overall, 2-6 at home, 0-4 on Tuesday and 2-5 after a SU win.
The under is on runs of 8-2-1 for the Raiders on Tuesday, 4-0 for Butler overall and 5-1 for Butler in Horizon action. However, the over is 4-0 in Wright State’s last four against winning teams, 4-0 in Butler’s last four against winning teams, 6-2 in Butler’s last eight on Tuesday and 4-0 in the last four battles between these schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUTLER and OVER
NCAAB News and Notes
Tuesday, March 9
Information on Tuesday's college basketball games.
Princeton (-6.5) won 58-51 at Penn Feb 16; Tigers are 3-2 as Ivy home favorite, won five of last seven games- they've won home games by 10-24-3-27 points. Dismal season for Penn but they covered last five games as a road underdog, with three of five games decided by one or two points. Penn shot 32% for game in first meeting, 4-18 from outside arc.
Big East tournament
South Florida (-3) won 63-59 at DePaul last Tuesday in brickfest where both sides shot under 39% (combined 4-23 from arc). Bulls won three in row to end regular season, are 8-4 in last dozen Big East games- they are 4-1 vs spread as Big East favorite. DePaul lost last 12 games, dropping last game in triple OT to St John's, after leading by 16 in second half.
St John's (+9) shot 34% from floor (2-17 from the arc) in 75-59 loss at UConn Jan 20; Red Storm lost three of last four games and was down 16 in second half of the win- they're 3-7 vs spread in last 10 games as a dog. Huskies lost last three games, allowing 70.3 ppg, as rumors swirl about Calhoun possibly retiring. Huskies are 1-6 in last seven games as a fave, and haven't won Big East conference tournament game since 2005.
Seton Hall (-2) just won 92-80 at Providence Saturday, shooting 50.8% from floor, 25-30 from line, 7-17 from arc while forcing 18 turnovers-- they think they're a bubble team, making this must win. Friars lost last ten games (2-7 vs spread in last nine); they allowed 88+ points in five of last six games. Pirates covered two of last eight as a favorite.
Cincinnati (-4.5) won 65-58 at Rutgers Jan 2, holding Knights to 37% from floor; Bearcats lost last three games and seven of last nine- they're 0-6 vs spread in last six games as a favorite. Rutgers lost four of last five games, getting trounced by 29 at Pitt Saturday; they're 1-3 vs spread in last four games as dog. Cincy last won conference tourney game in '04.
Atlantic 14 tournament
Duquesne, St Bonaventure split pair of games this year; Dukes (-5) got 70-69 home win Jan 23 (led by 15 at half, were just 20-33 at line), lost in Olean 92-80 March 3 (Bonnies shot 56%, 27-37 from line, 9-18 on arc). Dukes are 4-2 in last six games (average total of 166.3 last seven games). Bonnies won four of last five games, losing by 21 at Xavier Saturday.
Rhode Island (-15) waxed St Joe's 101-74 Feb 13 (led 58-34 at the half); Rams lost five of last seven games, with bad loss at UMass to close out regular season- they're 3-7 vs spread in last 10 games as favorite. Hawks won last two games after a 1-8 skid; they're 5-6 as A-14 dog. URI is 1-4 in first round of this event the last five years; St Joe's is 4-1.
Dayton (-10.5) beat George Washington 66-51 Jan 20 (led by 12 at half) but Flyers lost four of last five games, covered one of last seven- they're 1-4 vs spread in last five games as favorite. GW covered three of four as an underdog- they missed this tournament last two years, after winning it in '07. Dayton lost six of its last seven games away from home.
Charlotte (-3) won 72-58 at UMass Jan 30, holding host to 34% from floor, 4-28 from arc; 49ers lost last three games and six of last seven, are 1-8 vs spread in last nine games (1-3 in last four as favorite). UMass is 1-4 in last five games, upsetting URI Saturday. Lutz went 13-3 in these tourneys from 1997-2001, but is 4-8 in conference tournaments since.
Sun Belt tournament
Troy won last seven games, North Texas won last ten; both teams are playing third day in a row. Trojans held foes to 35.8%/35.7% from floor last two nights- they won last nite despite scoring just 16 points in 2nd half. Athletic North Texas (+5.5) won 75-72 at Troy Jan 14, only home loss for Trojans in Sun Belt play. UNT covered nine of last 12 games.
Horizon tournament
Butler beat Wright State twice this season, 77-65 in Nutter Center Jan 8 (+1.5), 74-62 in Hinkle Feb 6 (-8); Bulldogs shot 51/67% in two games. Raiders won nine of last 11 games; four of their six Horizon losses are by six or less points. Butler is 19-0 in Horizon, but is 2-5-1 vs spread in last eight league games. Bulldogs won this tourney once in last 8 years.
Big Sky tournament
Northern Colorado, Montana split pair of games this year; Bears won in Missoula, 59-48 (+6.5) Dec 5, then lost 64-62 at home to Griz Jan 28. Northern is 6-1 since Montana loss; they're in third year in Big Sky, are 3-1 in last four road games. Montana won seven of last nine games; they are 5-2 vs spread in last seven games as favorite. Neutral site game.
Weber State lost at home in this event LY; they get another chance here, vs Portland State squad they split with during year, winning here 86-83 (-10.5) Jan 22, then losing 84-79 in Portland Feb 28. Vikings won three games in row, scoring 83.3 ppg; they're 4-2 in last six games as road dog. Weber is 6-2 as home favorite, winning by 13-8-3-21-22-10-5-25 pts.