Game Of The Day: North Carolina at Clemson
By David Chan
Both these teams roared back Sunday after ugly losses. Each is ranked in the teens and needs a win against a quality opponent.
North Carolina beat Virginia Tech Sunday, but its previous win over a team worth talking about was on vs. Michigan State December 1.
Clemson beat Boston College comfortably Sunday. Before that, the last tournament-type team the Tigers edged was Butler November 29.
The Tar Heels have won 10 consecutive games over the Tigers going back to 2004. North Carolina is 6-4 against the spread in that span including a 94-70 win as a 13-point favorite last January. The Tar Heels led the all-tmie series 122-19 heading into Wednesday.
Tar Heels? Recovering ankles
North Carolina got past Virginia Tech 78-64 Sunday night. Both Marcus Ginyard and Will Graves returned to the lineup after sitting out with sprained right ankles.
Graves hit three 3-pointers in a three-minute stretch in the second half to help the Tar Heels pull away.
“He’s our best shooter, everybody on this team knows that”, UNC forward Deon Thompson told the Charlotte Observer. “When his shot is flying… it’s hard to beat us.”
Graves sat out the previous Monday’s loss at College of Charleston. The Tar Heels only made one shot from behind the arc in that game.
“When [Will Graves is] out there playing defense, getting all over the boards, rebounding the way he did tonight, I think everybody in this locker room understands what a huge part he is of this team, especially when he's playing like that,” Ginyard told reporters.
Halftime adjustment
Ginyard came off the bench as a defensive specialist. The Tar Heels used a lot of double teams after the break to frustrate ACC leading scorer Malcolm Delaney. Hokies’ point man Delaney ran riot in the first half and finished with 26 points, but only had one basket after halftime.
Clemson bouncing back
The Tigers’ win over BC was welcome after the drubbing they suffered at Duke January 3.
“I thought it was a very good bounce-back game for us,” Tigers coach Oliver Purnell told the Daily Journal.
Being on the rebound was more than metaphorical. Purnell had them working on rebounding drills all week. Cleaning glass in practice paid off in a 72-56 rebounding edge over BC.
"I'm sure the next couple days we'll be doing the same things we did to help our rebounding the last couple of days,” guard Tanner Smith told the media. “If we don't box out, we're going to have some problems."
If the Tigers want to win this one, he’s right. Tar Heels’ coach Roy Williams wants his team to dominate in the paint, even if he’s slowly getting used to outside shooting.
"I still want Sean May and Ed Davis and Tyler Hansbrough [type-players] to handle the inside, but I've always said we've got to have a real good mix," Williams said after his team’s Sunday win.
Taking care of the ball a key
The other aspect of the Tigers’ game that coach Purnell wanted to see improvement in was offensive turnovers. That’s a work in progress. Clemson still committed 13 turnovers Sunday after yielding 16 to Duke the week before.
A couple of trends
UNC are 1-4 SU on neutral and away courts this season.
Clemson are 8-1 SU at home this season, and 8-5 ATS overall this year.
Under is 6-5 in UNC games and 8-3 in Clemson games this year.
NCAAB News and Notes
Wednesday, January 13
Information on the best of Wednesday's college basketball games........
Michigan State won last six games vs Minnesota, winning last five here by 11-19-24-6-29 points; Spartans are 3-0 in Big 11, covering all three league games by 21-7-18 points, allowing 56.7 ppg. Minnesota is 8-1 in last nine games, losing by 19 at Purdue; they're 0-2 as an underdog this season. Big 11 home favorites are 8-6 vs spread in league play.
Pitt won three of last four games vs UConn, even splitting last eight in Nutmeg State; home teams won four of last five series games. Panthers are 3-0 in Big East, winning last two games at Syracuse/Cincinnati. Pitt took 29 more FTs than their opponents in those two road wins. UConn is 2-0 as Big East home favorite, beating ND by 12, Seton Hall by 8.
Virginia Tech had 9-game win streak snapped at UNC Sunday; Hokies are 7-2 in last nine games vs Miami, winning last three by 14-5-18 pts, two of which were in ACC tourney. Miami is 15-1, losing by a point at Boston College; they've won three other road games, all vs stiffs. ACC home favorites are 4-7 against spread in league play.
Wichita State won 13 of last 14 games, covering last four with wins by 23-12-3-12 points; Shockers won seven of last nine games vs Indiana St, but are 2-3 in last five visits here. Sycamores won three of last four, are 2-0 at home in Valley, beating Creighton, Evansville. Favorites covered six of last eight series games. MVC home dogs are 1-4 vs spread.
Visiting team won last three Georgia Tech-Virginia games; Tech travels after Duke upset Saturday- they're 2-1 on road, beating Chattanooga and Charlotte, losing at Georgia. Jackets are 9-2 in last 11 games. Virginia won last five games, beating UAB, NC State. ACC home teams are 5-7 vs spread in conference play, 4-7 if favored.
Ole Miss won three of last four games vs Georgia, with wins by 18-14-22 points; Rebels split last four games after 10-1 start; they're 1-1 away from home, losing at West Virginia, winning by 22 at Arkansas St. SEC home teams are 1-5 vs spread so far this season. Georgia won seven in a row at home since getting upset 70-67 by Wofford Nov 17.
UTEP lost three of last four visits to Houston, winning here LY; teams split meetings in last two C-USA tourneys; last 10 series games were all decided by 8 or less points. Miners are 1-1 on road, losing at Texas Tech by 8; they're 1-3 as underdog. Houston lost four of its last five games. C-USA teams are 3-6 vs spread so far this season.
Wisconsin's 2nd-leading scorer Leuer is out (broken wrist); Badgers won five of last six games vs Northwestern, splitting last four visits here (LY, they lost 66-63 in this gym). Wisconsin is 3-1 in Big 11, winning by 22-17-7 points, but they're 1-2 on road, losing at Green Bay/Michigan State and Leuer's injury hurts. Wildcats are 1-2 in Big 11, losing by 6-21.
Home side won five of last six Missouri-Texas Tech games; Tigers lost last three visits here by 11-18-8 points, but they beat Tech 97-86/81-60 LY, with second win in Big 12 tourney. Average total in last three series games is 166.7. Tech is 10-0 at home but lost its Big 12 opener 81-52 at Oklahoma State. Missouri won last eight games, is 1-2 on road.
North Carolina won last ten games vs Clemson, winning last three visits to Littlejohn by 19-22-2 points; UNC covered six of last nine in series. Tar Heels are 0-3 on road, losing at Kentucky/Texas/Charleston. Tigers won seven of last eight games; they're 8-0 at home. ACC home favorites are 4-7 against the spread. Can't find last time Clemson was series fave.
Home team won last five Vanderbilt-Alabama games; Commodores lost last two visits here by 3-5 points- Tide beat Vandy 82-75 in conference tourney last March. Bama won last four games, winning by 17 at LSU in SEC opener. Vandy won its last six games, beating Florida 95-87 in SEC opener. SEC home favorites are just 1-4 against the spread.
San Diego State beat UNLV three times LY, twice in this gym; Aztecs won seven of last ten series games. Underdogs are 9-4 vs spread in last 13 series games. Rebels lost two of last three games after 11-1 start, but they split tough road trip, winning at Pit after losing by 4 at BYU. San Diego State lost at Wyoming Saturday, their 2nd loss in last 12 games.
Nevada-Utah State split last eight meetings, going 1-1 in WAC tourney; Aggies lost three of last four visits to Reno, with losses by 17-5-13 pts. Wolf Pack won seven of last nine games, covering five of last six; they're 5-0 vs spread as a favorite. USU lost last three road games by 13-3-22 points. WAC home favorites are 7-5 against the spread this season.
Minnesota (12-4, 9-6 ATS) at (7) Michigan State (13-3, 6-9 ATS)
The Spartans look to remain perfect in Big Ten play and continue their dominance of Minnesota when they entertain the Golden Gophers at the Breslin Events Center.
Minnesota rebounded from an ugly 19-point loss at then-No. 4 Purdue with Saturday’s 73-62 rout of Ohio State, cashing as a four-point home favorite. The Gophers have won eight of their last nine games (7-2 ATS), going 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in Big Ten action. The offense has carried the load during the 8-1 run, producing at least 73 points in all eight victories (average of 87.1 points per game).
Michigan State improved to 3-0 SU and ATS in conference with Saturday’s 71-53 beat-down of Iowa as a 14-point road favorite. Like Minnesota, the Spartans are on an 8-1 run, but they’ve been doing it with defense, yielding 60 points or less in six of the nine contests. Tom Izzo’s squad has covered the spread in three straight games for the first time all year, as it had gone 1-6 ATS in its previous seven outings.
The Spartans have won six straight and 11 of the last 12 against Minnesota, going 8-4 ATS during the 12-game stretch and 4-0 ATS in the last four. Last year, Michigan State beat the Gophers three times: 70-58 as a one-point road underdog; 76-47 as an 8½-point home favorite; and 64-56 as a 7½-point chalk in the Big Ten tourney. Michigan State has defeated Minnesota 10 straight times in East Lansing, going 9-1 ATS.
Michigan State cashed as a six-point favorite in a 54-47 home win over Wisconsin a week ago, moving to 9-0 at home. However, prior to that, the Spartans had gone 2-5 ATS in their first seven games at the Breslin Center. They’re 2-7 ATS in their last nine against winning teams and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 when favored by seven to 12½ points, but have cashed in five of six Big Ten games.
Minnesota’s 7-2 ATS roll overall is bolstered by a 5-2 ATS mark in its last seven after a SU win, but the Gophers are also in pointspread droughts of 6-13 in conference games, 2-11 on the road, 3-13 as a road ‘dog and 2-5 against winning teams.
The under is on streaks of 4-1 for the Gophers on Wednesday, 6-1 for the Gophers against winning teams, 11-3 for Michigan State in conference games, 5-1 for Michigan State against winning squads, 6-1 in the last seven meetings in this rivalry and 3-0 in the last three Gophers-Spartans matchups at Michigan State.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN STATE and UNDER
(16) Pittsburgh (13-2, 6-5-2 ATS) at (15) UConn (11-4, 5-7-1 ATS)
The surprising Panthers take a six-game SU winning streak to the XL Center in Hartford for a Big East battle against UConn.
Pittsburgh has been idle since Jan. 4, when it improved to 3-0 (2-0-1 ATS) in conference play with a 74-71 upset win at Cincinnati as a four-point underdog. The Panthers are 4-0-1 ATS in lined action during their winning streak, scoring at least 65 points in every game while holding four opponents under 60 points.
The Huskies dropped to 2-2 in Big East action with Saturday’s tough 72-69 loss at 12th-ranked Georgetown, but they covered as a five-point road underdog. UConn is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games (3-0-1 ATS in league play), and its last three losses – to Kentucky, Cincinnati and Georgetown, all away from home – were by a total of eight points. Jim Calhoun’s squad has been a little lax defensively lately, yielding 70 points or more in four of the last five games.
This has been a very competitive rivalry in recent years, with the teams splitting their last 10 battles. Last season, Pitt swept the series with a 76-68 upset win as a 2½-point road pup and a 70-60 victory as a 4½-point home favorite. The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes overall, 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Connecticut, and the SU winner has cashed in eight of the last nine meetings, including the past four in a row.
The Panthers are pointspread upticks of 4-0-1 overall, 10-4-1 in conference, 8-2 as an underdog (all on the road) and 5-0-2 against winning teams, while the Huskies are on ATS rolls of 4-0-1 overall, 25-12-1 when laying less than seven points at home, 4-0-1 against winning teams and 6-1 on Wednesday.
Pitt carries “over” trends of 5-1 on the road, 5-0 as a ‘dog (all on the road) and 22-10-1 in Big East action, while UConn is on “over” runs of 4-1 overall (all in conference), 16-7 as a favorite of less than seven points and 7-2 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and OVER
(23) Miami, Fla. (15-1, 6-2 ATS) at Virginia Tech (12-2, 4-5 ATS)
Virginia Tech tries to bounce back from its first loss in more than six weeks while also shooting for a fourth straight victory over the Hurricanes, who bring a seven-game winning streak into Cassell Coliseum in Blacksburg, Va., for this ACC tussle.
Miami vaulted back into the Top 25 this week after holding off Wake Forest 67-66 on Saturday, though the ‘Canes fell short of cashing as a 5½-point favorite, ending a five-game spread-covering run. The Demon Deacons became just the fourth team to tally more than 60 points against the Hurricanes, who haven’t allowed a single opponent to score more than 70 and are yielding just 58 ppg. Miami’s only blemish was a 61-60 loss to Boston College in the ACC opener on Dec. 6 as a 4½-point road underdog.
The Hokies ended non-conference play with nine straight wins (4-1 ATS in lined play), then stepped up in class Sunday by traveling to ACC foe North Carolina, and the Tar Heels rolled 78-64 as an eight-point home favorite. In addition to North Carolina (then ranked 9th), Va-Tech has faced only one other opponent that’s been ranked this year, and that was Temple, which beat the Hokies 61-50 as a 4½-point home favorite.
Virginia Tech has won three straight, five of six and seven of the last nine in this rivalry, with the SU winner covering the pointspread in every contest. Last year, the Hokies went to South Beach and scored an 88-83 overtime win as a seven-point underdog then knocked off the ‘Canes 65-47 as a three-point pup in the ACC tournament. The ‘dog has delivered four straight upsets in this series.
The Hurricanes have failed to cover in four of their last five ACC games, but they’re otherwise on ATS runs of 5-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 9-3 as a ‘dog, 11-4-1 as a pup of less than seven points, 17-5-2 after a non-cover and 4-1 against winning teams. Virginia Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last five overall and 5-2 ATS in its last seven on Wednesday, but the Hokies have failed to cash in four of five as a home chalk and six of eight when laying less than seven points.
It’s been all “unders” for Miami, which is on low-scoring streaks of 7-3 overall, 4-0 in ACC play and 5-1 after a non-cover. Conversely, Virginia Tech is on “over” stretches of 36-17-1 overall in lined play, 23-8 at home, 21-6 as a favorite, 19-7 as a home chalk, 5-1 on Wednesday and 4-1 after a non-cover. Finally, four of the last five in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI, FLA.
(12) North Carolina (12-4, 6-8 ATS) at (24) Clemson (13-3, 8-5 ATS)
North Carolina looks to knock off Clemson for the 11th straight time when this ACC rivalry gets renewed at Littlejohn Coliseum.
The Tar Heels rebounded from an embarrassing 82-79 overtime loss at Charleston as a 13½-point favorite with a 78-64 victory over Virginia Tech in the ACC opener for both teams, easily cashing as an eight-point favorite to end an 0-3 ATS slide. North Carolina is just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS in road/neutral-site games, losing both of its true roadies to Charleston and Kentucky (68-66 as a 3½-point underdog). The defending champs have scored at least 78 points in six straight games, they’ve topped 70 points in every game but the Kentucky contest, and have scored 80 or more 11 times.
Clemson dropped its conference opener at Duke on Jan. 3, losing 74-53 as an 11½-point underdog, but came back with a strong effort Saturday in dismantling Boston College 72-56 as a nine-point home favorite. The Tigers are 8-1 SU in their last nine games (7-1 ATS), including 6-0 SU (5-1 ATS) at home. Their only hiccup at Littlejohn Coliseum this year was a 76-74 loss to Illinois in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, a game Clemson led by 23 points in the second half. Oliver Purnell’s squad averages 81 ppg (49.7 percent shooting) and gives up 59.1 ppg (38.9 percent) on its home court.
North Carolina has won 10 in a row overall and three straight at Clemson in this rivalry, but the Heels are just 6-4 ATS during this stretch that dates to the 2003-04 season (2-1 ATS at Clemson). In last year’s lone clash in Chapel Hill, North Carolina rolled 94-70 as a 13-point favorite, their 54th straight home win over the Tigers.
The Tar Heels have cashed in 11 of their last 15 games against winning teams and are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 as an underdog, 10-1 ATS in their last 11 as a road underdog and 7-0 ATS in their last seven as a pup of less than seven points. But otherwise they’re in ATS ruts of 2-6 on the road, 1-4 against the ACC and 0-4 after a SU victory. Clemson is on pointspread rolls of 6-1 overall, 5-0 at home, 5-0 after a spread-cover and 6-0 as a favorite, but it has failed to cash in five of its last seven league games and five favorite as a chalk of less than seven points.
The over is on runs of 8-3 for UNC on the road, 12-2 for UNC on Wednesday, 5-2 for UNC as an underdog, 4-0 for Clemson against winning teams, 7-3 for Clemson on Wednesday and 4-0 in this rivalry. However, the under is 6-1 in the Tigers’ last seven overall, 4-1 in their last five at home and 5-1 in their last six as a chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEMSON and OVER
Tips and Trends
Pittsburgh Panthers at UConn Huskies
Panthers: Coach Jamie Dixon might be in the midst of his finest coaching season to date. Despite minimal expectations, the Panthers are off to an improbable 13-2 SU record. Pittsburgh lost their top 3 scorers last year to the NBA, so a rebuiding year was expected. The Panthers have won 6 consecutive games SU, and have only lost once ATS since December 1st. The Panthers are 4-2 both SU and ATS this year away from home. Pittsburgh is also 4-2 ATS in games with a single digit point spread this season. The Panthers won both meetings against UCONN last year, with UCONN ranked as the #1 team in the country on both occasions. G Ashton Gibbs leads 3 different Panthers averaging double digits in PTS. Gibbs is averaging 17.5 PPG while making nearly 2.5 three pointers per game. The Panthers have allowed more than 70 PTS in 4 of their 6 games away from home this season.
Pitt is 5-0 ATS last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 5-1 last 6 road games.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 64 (Side of the Day)
Huskies (-6.5, O/U 131.5): UCONN is likely to be angry tonight, as they lost their last game SU to Georgetown in which they were up by as many as 19 PTS. UCONN is 11-4 SU this season, but have lost 2 of their last 4 games. The Huskies have enjoyed great success at home, where they are 10-0 SU. 8 of the 10 home games the Huskies have hosted have featured double digit point spreads or no lines at all. The Huskies have won 5 straight games ATS, for a season long record of 6-7 ATS. G Jerome Dyson leads the Huskies in PTS with nearly 20 PPG. F Stanley Robinson isn't far behind, as he averages 17 PPG while shooting better than .50% from the field. The Huskies tend to lose games when they miss free throws, as they've shot worse than 59% from the free throw line in their 4 defeats combined. UCONN is 9-0 SU when they turn the ball over 13 times or fewer this season.
UConn is 4-0 ATS last 4 vs. Big East.
Over is 4-1 last 5 vs. Big East.
Key Injuries - G Darius Smith (academics) is questionable.
C Jonathan Mandeldove (academics) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 65
North Carolina Tarheels at Clemson Tigers
Tarheels: North Carolina bounced back from their shocking outright loss to College of Charleston with a double digit win against Virginia Tech. North Carolina is 12-4 SU and 6-8 ATS this season. The Tarheels have played 5 games away from home this season, going 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS. Of those 5 games, North Carolina was the listed favorite in 3 of those contests. The Tarheels have played 2 true road games, losing them both SU. Today marks the 3rd time this season the Tarheels are the listed underdog, going 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS this season. The Tarheels are loaded down low, as forwards Deon Thompson and Ed Davis each average more than 15 PPG. Thompson and Davis also lead a group of 5 players that shoot better than .50% from the field. The Tarheels have scored 77 PTS or more in 14 of their 16 games this season. North Carolina has won the last 10 games SU against Clemson.
Tarheels are 2-6 ATS last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 8-3 last 11 road games.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 79
Tigers (-3.5, O/U 152): Clemson has won 7 of their past 8 games SU, with their only loss coming against Duke. The Tigers are 13-3 SU and 8-5 ATS this season. Clemson is 8-1 SU and 5-1 ATS at home this season. The Tigers are 2-3 ATS when facing a single digit point spread. The Tigers have won 6 consecutive games ATS as the listed favorite heading into tonight. Clemson has struggled to put the ball in the basket of late, scoring 72 PTS or fewer in each of their past 3 games. When Clemson shoots under 40% from the field, they are 0-3 SU. Anything higher than 40%, they are undefeated at 13-0 SU. F Trevor Booker leads the Tigers in scoring, at 14.8 PPG. Booker also leads the team in rebounds at 8.4 RPG, as he's the only Tiger averaging more than 5 RPG. Guards Demontez Stitt and Tanner Smith both average 10 PPG to round out the Tigers double digit scorers.
Tigers are 5-0 ATS last 5 home games.
Under is 6-1 last 7 overall.
Key Injuries - F Jonah Baize (foot) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 81 (OVER - Total of the Day)