Wednesday's Best NCAAB Bet
Iowa Hawkeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions (-7, 132)
Don’t look now, but the Nittany Lions aren’t terrible. Penn State has won two of its past four games with those victories coming over Illinois and Michigan State in Happy Valley. The losses? To No. 1 Ohio State and No. 12 Purdue by a combined four points. In fact, if not for a botched call on a ball swatted out of bounds, the Lions likely would have beaten the Boilermakers in West Lafayette.
One of the big reasons for Penn State’s sudden surge is the emergence of senior Jeff Brooks. The forward is second in the Big Ten in making 64.2 percent of his field goals, and led the team in points (19), rebounds (8), assists (5) and blocks (3) in the late loss to Purdue.
And Brooks knows just how much his team depends on him to provide a second option to star guard Talor Battle (20.2 ppg).
“I’ve been trying to play this way all season,” Brooks said. “When I play aggressive, we all play aggressive. We all feed off each other, especially the seniors. Hopefully all of us can keep this rolling.”
Iowa, meantime, has lost six of its past seven games and dropped its three Big Ten road games by an average of 18.3 points per game.
And if you think the Bryce Jordan Center on Dollar Dog Night won’t be an intimidating venue, chew on this: the home team is 7-2 ATS in the team’s past nine meetings.
Pick: Penn State
Tar Heels, 'Canes battle NCAA odds in Miami
By: David Schwab
The North Carolina Tar Heels travel to the BankUnited Center in Coral Gables this Wednesday for an ACC matchup with the Miami Hurricanes. Tip-off is set for 4:30 p.m. (PT) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN2.
North Carolina was working its way back toward respectability with eight wins in its last nine games until it was blown out by Georgia Tech, 78-58, on Jan. 16 as a six-point road favorite. The Tar Heels were able to bounce back with a 75-65 win over Clemson, a team they have beaten 55 straight times, as a 5½-point home favorite last Tuesday, but this program still remains a shell of its former self.
They come into this game with an overall record of 13-5 straight-up and 6-9 against the spread. Coach Roy Williams' bunch is currently in third-place in the ACC at 3-1 SU.
Junior forward Tyler Zeller leads the Tar Heels in scoring with an average of 14.1 points and is second in rebounds with 7.4 per game. Sophomore forward John Henson remains the big man underneath with a team-high 8.2 rebounds and 10.6 points per game and freshman forward Harrison Barnes is second in scoring with 11.8 points per game and averaging 5.3 rebounds a game.
All this adds up to North Carolina being one of the best rebounding schools in the country with an average of 42 per game, but this has yet to translate to wins against quality teams. The Tar Heels are averaging 77 points a game and shooting a respectable 45.2 percent from the field, but they have been inconsistent from the foul-line; converting on just 64.2 percent of their attempts.
Miami is coming off of back-to-back losses for the first time this season. First, the Hurricanes lost a 55-53 heartbreaker to Florida State last Wednesday as a two-point home favorite and then dropped another two-point decision in a 72-70 loss to North Carolina State as a 2½-point road underdog on Saturday. The ‘Canes are now 12-7 SU overall and 8-6 ATS. They are just 1-4 SU in conference play this season.
This team has a trio of youthful players who can all score in junior guard Malcolm Grant, sophomore guard Durand Scott, and sophomore center Reggie Johnson. Grant leads the team in points with 15.7 a game and assists with 3.7. Scott is second in scoring with an average of 13.7 points per game and Johnson is averaging 12.3 points and a team-high 9.8 rebounds per game.
The Hurricanes are averaging 74 points a game, but are at a distinct disadvantage to North Carolina under the boards with an average of just 37 rebounds per game. They are shooting 44.3 percent from the field and 38.1 percent from three-point range. Miami has been much better than the Tar Heels from the free-throw line with a 74.4 shooting percentage.
North Carolina is 2-2 ATS in its last four games on the road and 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of its last six games.
Miami is 3-4 ATS in its last seven home games and 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of its last five games.
Head-to-head, the Tar Heels have won eight of the last nine matchups SU including the last six straight. They are 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings and the total has stayed ‘under’ in the last three.
This time around look for North Carolina to open as a five- or six-point road favorite in a game that should remain tight until the end. The Tar Heels get the SU win, but stick with Miami to keep things close enough to cover.
NCAA Betting Preview: San Diego State at BYU
By: Willie Bee
It may be the biggest basketball game ever for either team as well as their conference. It's arguably the biggest game of the college basketball season's 12th week, the only matchup of top-10 teams. And it's definitely the top contest on Wednesday night.
Too bad most of the country will miss it since the television broadcast of the No. 4 San Diego State Aztecs at the No. 9 BYU Cougars is limited to those with access to CBS College Sports. If you're one of the lucky ones to see it, look for the tip a little after 7 p.m. (PT).
Call this Round 1 of an unofficial bracket-buster contest. Round 2 will be played in San Diego on Feb. 26, with a possible third and final round in the Mountain West Conference Tournament slated for Las Vegas March 9-12. Wednesday marks the first time the MWC has seen a battle between schools ranked in the top 10.
DJ GaySteve Fisher's Aztecs enter as the only undefeated school other than the top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes. San Diego State (20-0 straight up, 12-6 against the spread) hasn't been on the court since last Wednesday when Air Force visited Viejas Arena as an 18½-point underdog.
The Aztecs weren't nearly as dominating as the spread suggested they should have been, needing a late push for the 68-55 victory. DJ Gay led the way with 20 points while Kawhi Leonard posted his 13th double-double of the season with a 10-point, 10-rebound effort. SDSU sank 13 of its 25 three-point attempts and held a 34-20 edge on the boards over the Falcons.
San Diego State is off to a 5-0 conference start, covering three of its MWC games with four of the five finishing 'under' the total. Eight of the last 10 Aztecs games with a total posted have remained on the low side after starting the season 5-2 to the 'over.'
Brigham Young (19-1 SU, 7-9 ATS) also brings a 5-0 conference mark into Wednesday's battle after taking down Colorado State on the road last Saturday, 94-85. Favored by seven in hostile territory, the cover left the Cougars 3-2 ATS in MWC play with four of the five games cashing for 'over' backers.
Just as he has been doing all season, Jimmer Fredette paced BYU on the scoring ledger with 42 points, his second 40-point game of the season. The nation's leading scorer with a 26.7 per game average, Fredette made good on 11-of-24 field goals, 4-of-9 from beyond the arc, and 16-of-17 free throws. The senior out of Great Falls, NY has stepped his game up in conference action with 34.2 PPG and is a 90 percent ace this season from the charity stripe (117-for-130).
BYU won both regular season meetings a year ago and has won five of the last six meetings with San Diego State. The Cougars covered as 7½-point favorites at home in Feb. 2010, 82-68, and pushed as two-point chalk on the road in San Diego about a month earlier, 71-69. The game in Provo went 'over' the NCAA odds while the contest in SoCal just managed to stay 'under' the 141-point tally.
San Diego State's only win in the last six head-to-head tussles was in the 2009 MWC Championship with the Aztecs posting a 64-62 victory as 2½-point underdogs.
The Aztecs aren't reporting any injuries at this time. Sophomore forward Chris Collinsworth has missed the last five BYU games with a knee injury and isn't expected to suit on Wednesday.
Brigham Young next heads to Albuquerque this Saturday to take on New Mexico. San Diego State returns home to host Wyoming the same day.
Top 10 Showdown in Provo
By Judd Hall
Some people might be worn out of college hoops on Wednesday with 40 games on the board. For those bettors that are willing to stay up late, they’ll be rewarded with the Aztecs and Cougars playing a Top 10 tilt at 10:00 p.m. EST on CBS College Sports.
I don’t doubt that many people would have had San Diego State (20-0 straight up, 12-6 against the spread) making much noise this season. After all, they started the year No. 25 on the AP Poll. Yet they stand with the Buckeyes as the only teams unbeaten in college basketball at the moment.
The Aztecs have been getting it done this year thanks to a nearly unstoppable duo of Kawhi Leonard and Malcolm Thomas. Leonard is averaging 15.7 points per game with another 10.3 rebounds per contest to pace the team. Thomas is no slouch either with 11.8 PPG and 8.1 RPG to keep San Diego State ahead of the opposition.
While Thomas and Leonard are the main points of emphasis, they are mostly close range threats. We bring that up because SDSU has recently started firing daggers into its opponents beyond the three-point line. The Aztecs have connected on 14 of their 51 shots from downtown in their last two games against New Mexico and Air Force. D.J. Gay has been the assassin for Steve Fisher’s team in those games, hitting 59 percent of his shots from beyond the arc.
As if that newfound accuracy from the perimeter wasn’t enough for bettors to like San Diego State in this game, they’re going to be well rested for this contest. How well rested? They haven’t had a game since the 68-55 win as an 18-point home favorite over the Falcons on Jan. 19.
It can easily be argued that the Aztecs will need those extra practice days to deal with Brigham Young’s (19-1 SU, 7-9 ATS) attack. The Cougars are scoring 85.2 PPG this season, which has been bested by just four other teams in the country. And the main cog of this offense is one Jimmer Fredette.
Fredette has been a man possessed on the court, picking up 26.7 PPG to lead all scorers in the nation. There doesn’t appear to be anyone trying to stop the senior from Glens Falls, New York with him putting up 47 points at Utah on Jan. 11 and another 42 points at Colorado State last Saturday. The only question remaining about Fredette this season is how fast he’s going to be handed the Mountain West Player of the Year award.
The Aztecs have proven in the past that they cannot hold off Fredette as he put up 26 and 33 points against them last season. Both games wound up in wins for BYU.
San Diego State will no doubt be looking to snuff out Fredette. If they’re successful, then the Cougs could be in a world of hurt. Jackson Emery is second on the team with 13.0 PPG, while Brandon Davies puts in 11.3 PPG this year. Davies could really be the X-factor on the Cougars as he is averaging 5.6 RPG this season. He along with Noah Hartsock (9.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG) will be integral to BYU’s success on Wednesday night.
Totals players will notice right away that these teams are going in opposite directions. BYU has watched the ‘over’ go on an 8-2 run in its last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Aztecs have seen the ‘under’ go 8-2 in their past 10 contests.
The head-to-head series has been a bit one-sided with the Cougars going 7-3 SU in the last 10 meetings. However, they are just 5-5 ATS. The ‘under’ is 7-3 in those games. Brigham Young is 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS in its five home dates against the Aztecs.
San Diego State’s gone a perfect 7-0 SU on the road this season, of course. But they’re nearly as automatic at the betting window with a 6-1 ATS record. The ‘over’ is 5-2 in that stretch.
BYU isn’t a slouch at home either, going 8-0 SU this season. Bettors backing them, however, have gone just 2-3 ATS. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the games that were on the board.
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San Diego State at BYU: What Bettors Need to Know
THE STORY: The biggest regular-season showdown in Mountain West Conference history figures to be quite a tussle when No. 4 San Diego State visits No. 9 Brigham Young on Wednesday.
It will be the first matchup of Top-10 teams in conference history and San Diego State entered the week as one the nation’s two remaining undefeated teams along with top-ranked Ohio State. Brigham Young features National Player of the Year candidate Jimmer Fredette, who seemingly upstages himself on a weekly basis.
The Cougars lead the Mountain West with 85.2 points per game while the Aztecs have the stingiest defense, allowing just 58.8 points. The winner of the much-anticipated contest will have a leg up in the battle for the regular-season crown.
TV: 10:15 p.m. ET, CBS College Sports.
ODDS: Books opened the Cougars as 4.5-point home favorites. That has been bet up to -5 as of Wednesday morning. The total has moved two points from its original post of 143.5 to 145.5 in the hours following post.
ABOUT BRIGHAM YOUNG (19-1, 5-0, 7-9 ATS): Fredette leads the nation in scoring at 26.7 points and has scored 39 or more points in three of BYU’s last five games. He averaged 29.5 points in two games against the Aztecs last season and has averaged 22.4 points in his last five outings against San Diego State.
Guard Jackson Emery has made 22 of 44 3-point attempts during Mountain West play and averages 13 points. Forwards Brandon Davies and Noah Hartsock will be key players against San Diego State’s stellar frontcourt. Davies averages 11.3 points and 5.7 rebounds and Hartsock averages 9.8 points and 5.8 rebounds. BYU is 8-0 at home with an average winning margin of 26.9 points.
ABOUT SAN DIEGO STATE (20-0, 5-0, 12-6 ATS): The Aztecs traditionally struggle when facing BYU on the road, compiling just a 3-28 mark in Provo. San Diego State’s last win at BYU came in 2005. The Aztecs are 11-0 in road and neutral court games this season, including victories at Gonzaga and California.
Forward Kawhi Leonard already has 30 career double-doubles midway through his sophomore season and leads the Aztecs with 15.7 points and 10.3 rebounds per game. Center Malcolm Thomas (11.9 points, 8.1 rebounds) and forward Billy White (9.7 points, 59.2 percent from the field) join Leonard on one of the nation’s top frontlines. Guard D.J. Gay averages 12.8 points and has a team-leading 49 3-pointers, but has made just 28.3 percent of his field-goal attempts in eight career games against BYU.
WHO'S HOT/WHO’S NOT: Fredette is averaging 34.2 points with 22 3-point baskets in BYU’s five Mountain West games. Gay has averaged 25 points and made 13 3-pointers in San Diego State’s last two games. The Cougars’ Hartsock had just three points and three rebounds against Colorado State on Saturday. The Aztecs’ Thomas is averaging just seven points on 35.7-percent shooting over the past two contests.
KEY STATISTIC: San Diego State is just 1-10 on the road against BYU during Steve Fisher’s 12 seasons as coach.
RECENT HISTORY: The Cougars swept San Diego State last season and have won five of the last six meetings. The Aztecs’ lone win during that stretch came in the semifinals of the 2009 Mountain West Conference postseason tournament.
LOOKING AHEAD: San Diego State returns home to face hapless Wyoming on Saturday while BYU travels to play New Mexico at The Pit.
TRENDS:
- Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
- Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
- Aztecs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games versus Mountain West.
- Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last six Wednesday games.
- Under is 6-1 in Aztecs’ last seven overall.
- Over is 9-2 in Cougars’ last 11 home games.
LAST WORD: The buzz over this contest is unprecedented in Mountain West Conference history and the winner of this game will be viewed as the non-power program with the best chance at being this season’s “Butler” in terms of the NCAA Tournament. The Aztecs are newcomers to the national stage and can justify their lofty ranking with a victory. BYU figures to jump San Diego State in the rankings with a win as long as it doesn’t stumble Saturday against New Mexico.
Tips and Trends
San Diego St. Aztecs at BYU Cougars
AZTECS: It's been a storybook season for San Diego St, and it all culminates tonight in what will be the toughest game of their regular season. San Diego St. is one of only 2 undefeated teams in all of college basketball. The Aztecs are 20-0 SU and 12-6 ATS, as they are ranked 4th in the country in the national polls. SDSU has an elite frontcourt, that is simply relentless in rebounding the basketball. Combine that with a steady PG in D.J. Gay, and you have a recipe for success. The Aztecs are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in true road games this year. Tonight will mark just the 2nd time this season the Aztecs will be the listed underdog. In their 2nd game of the season, they beat Gonzaga on the road as a 6 point underdog. F Kawhi Leonard is averaging team highs of 15.7 PPG and 10.3 RPG this season. Gay is averaging 12.8 PPG and a team high 3.2 APG this year. F Malcolm Thomas is averaging 11.8 PPG and 8.1 RPG this season for the Aztecs. The Aztecs are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a winning SU record. San Diego St. is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Aztecs are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%. The Aztecs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against the Mountain West Conference. San Diego St. is 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
Aztecs are 17-5-1 ATS last 23 road games.
Under is 6-1 last 7 games overall.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 65
COUGARS: (-5, O/U 145) BYU is an impressive 19-1 SU this season, ranking them 9th in the nation. The Cougars have been overshadowed by the undefeated Aztecs, but tonight is their opportunity to make a statement. While 19-1 SU, BYU is just 7-9 ATS this year. The Cougars are a perfect 8-0 SU and 2-3 ATS at home this year. BYU was able to beat SDSU by 14 PTS last year at home, a feat they'd love repeat tonight. G Jimmer Fredette is arguably the best player in the country this year. Fredette is averaging a team high 26.6 PPG and 4.4 APG this year. G Jackson Emery is a great compliment to Fredette, as he's averaging 13 PPG in his own right. F Brandon Davies is averaging 9.8 PPG and 5.6 RPG this season. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games. BYU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600%.
Cougars are 0-8 ATS last 8 games following an ATS win.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Key Injuries - F Chris Collinsworth (knee) is out.
Projected Score: 79 (SIDE of the Day)
Wednesday Wagers
By Brian Edwards
There are dozens of games on tonight's college hoops card that tips at 6:30 p.m. Eastern with Iowa at Penn St. on the Big Ten Network. Also, there's a key Big East showdown between West Virginia and Louisville, while Northwestern is in dire need of a victory against Minnesota. Both the Gophers and Mountaineers will be playing short-handed.
Let’s take a look at both of those contests and more.
West Virginia at Louisville
As of early this morning, most books had Louisville (15-4 straight up, 9-6-1 against the spread) listed as a six-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 141.
West Virginia (13-5 SU, 6-9 ATS) is expected to have just eight healthy scholarship players available following the suspension of leading scorer Casey Mitchell. The senior scoring guard, who averages 16.9 points per game, was suspended indefinitely by head coach Bob Huggins on Monday for an unspecified violation of team rules.
Rick Pitino’s squad is 13-2 SU and 7-4-1 ATS at home in its new arena, the KFC Yum! Center. The Cardinals beat up on St. John’s in their last home game, trashing the Red Storm by an 88-63 count as seven-point home favorites.
U of L is looking to bounce back from a 72-67 loss Saturday at Providence as a five-point road favorite. Chris Smith had 19 points and seven rebounds in the losing effort.
WVU has failed to cover the number in back-to-back games. The Mountaineers lost a 75-71 decision to in-state rival Marshall as 10-point favorites last Wednesday. Then on Sunday, they beat South Florida 56-46 as 13 ½-point home favorites. Mitchell, Kevin Jones and John Flowers scored 13 points apiece in the non-covering triumph. Mitchell had 14 rebounds, while Flowers had seven boards, three steals and three blocked shots.
The ‘over’ is 9-5 overall for WVU, but the ‘under’ is on a 4-2 run in its last six outings.
Totals have been an overall wash (8-8) for U of L. The ‘under’ is 7-5 in the Cards’ 12 home games with a total.
Louisville has won seven of the 10 all-time meetings between these schools, but WVU knocked off the Cards 77-74 in Morgantown last season. U of L has a 5-1 spread record in the last six encounters with the ‘Neers.
Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.
Northwestern at Minnesota
As of early this morning, most betting shops had Minnesota (15-4 SU, 9-10 ATS) installed as a 5½-point home favorite with a total of 142.
Minnesota has won three consecutive games, including Saturday’s 69-64 win at Michigan as a 1½-point road underdog. The Gophers were led by Ralph Sampson III and Trevor Mbakwe, who both scored 13 points apiece. The duo combined to pull down 15 rebounds. However, starting senior point guard Al Nolen suffered a broken foot that’s expected to keep him on the sidelines until late February.
Northwestern (13-6 SU, 8-5 ATS) is looking to rebound from its worst performance of the season in a 78-46 loss to Wisconsin on Saturday as a 1½-point home underdog. The Wildcats got nothing from sophomore Drew Crawford, who didn’t score and had just one assist and one rebound in 27 minutes of playing time.
Bill Carmody’s team has been awful in underdog spots this year, posting an abysmal 1-5 spread record in six such situations.
Tubby Smith’s team has won 10 of its 11 home games at The Barn, but the Gophers have limped to a 3-8 spread record in those contests. They are 3-1 ATS as single-digit favorites, 2-0 as single-digit home ‘chalk.’
Northwestern is led by junior forward John Shurna, who averages a team-high 19.2 points per game. Senior PG Michael Thompson is averaging 13.9 points, 4.4 assists and 1.6 steals per game.
Minnesota is No. 23 in the RPI rankings, going 4-3 against RPI Top 100 squads. Meanwhile, Northwestern has dropped to 73 in the RPI after its blowout loss to Wisconsin.
The ‘over’ is 9-4 overall for Northwestern.
The ‘over’ is 10-8 overall for the Gophers, 5-5 in their home assignments.
The ‘under’ is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these conference rivals. These schools split a pair of head-to-head meetings last year with the home team winning each time, but the Wildcats took the money in both spots. The Gophers won a 65-61 decision at home, but Northwestern hooked up its backers catching 12½ points.
The Big Ten Network will have television coverage at 8:30 p.m. Eastern.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Florida won a double-overtime thriller at Georgia on Tuesday night, 104-91. The Gators won outright as 2 ½-point underdogs thanks to 24 points from Kenny Boynton, who hit all 12 of his attempts from the free-throw line. UF let a lead get away at the end of regulation, as UGA’s Trey Thompkins scored a putback bucket just before the horn to force the first extra session. At the end of the first overtime, Erving Walker drained a 35-footer with one tick left to send the game to a second OT. It was all UF from there with Chandler Parsons burying a huge 3-pointer to give the Gators some separation. Billy Donovan’s team improved to 5-1 in the SEC with the victory.
Syracuse has now lost three in a row after getting spanked Tuesday by Seton Hall. The Pirates went into the Carrier Dome as 13-point road underdogs and emerged with a 90-68 blowout win. Bettors backing the Hall on the money line scored a plus-700 payout at the Las Vegas Hilton (risk $100 to win $700).
Kansas responded to its first loss of the year Saturday vs. Texas by going into Boulder and capturing an 82-78 win over Colorado. However, the Buffaloes covered the number as 7½-point home underdogs.
Miami will play host to North Carolina on Wednesday night at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2. Most spots, as of early this morning, had the Tar Heels listed as one-point road favorites.
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