LSU (3-0, 2-1 ATS) vs. (13) UConn (3-0, 0-3 ATS)
(at New York)
Two teams looking to remain unbeaten hook up in the Preseason NIT semifinals at Madison Square Garden, with UConn still searching for its first spread-cover of the season.
LSU has posted three straight double-digit home victories to start the year, the most recent being a 71-60 rout of Western Kentucky as a 6½-point favorite on Nov. 17. The Tigers have been playing strong defense, allowing just 55.7 points per game on 35.5 percent shooting, but offensively they’re making just 42.2 percent of their shots, including a woeful 19.6 percent from three-point range.
UConn also has been off since Nov. 17, when it advanced to New York courtesy of a 76-67 victory over Hofstra, failing to cash as an 18½-point home favorite. The Huskies actually trailed Hofstra by nine points with nine minutes to play before rallying, and they’ve yet to put away any of their opponents. In fact, all three of UConn’s wins were by near identical scores – 75-66, 77-63 and 76-67 – against soft competition, but it never threatened to cover as a double-digit chalk in any contest. Going back to its 82-73 upset loss to Michigan State as a 4½-point favorite in last year’s Final Four, the Huskies are in an 0-4 ATS rut.
These schools played a home-and-home series in 2006-07, with the host winning both contests and LSU getting the cash both times, covering as a 10½-point underdog in a 67-66 road defeat in 2006 and cashing as a 4½-point favorite in a 66-49 win the following year.
LSU is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five Big East games and 5-2 ATS in its last seven on Wednesday, but the Tigers have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 at neutral sites, and they’ve alternated ATS wins and losses in their last eight games. UConn’s 0-4 ATS drought has all come in non-conference action, but the Huskies are on positive pointspread rolls of 7-3 against the SEC, 4-1 at neutral sites and 5-1 on Wednesday.
The Tigers carry “under” trends of 5-2 overall, 4-1 at neutral sites and 5-0 against Big East teams, but the over is 16-5 in their last 21 on Wednesday. UConn is on a slew of “over” runs, including 4-0 overall (all in non-conference play), 20-6 at neutral sites and 4-1 after a SU win. Finally, when these squads met in 2006 and 2007, both games stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LSU
Arizona State (4-0, 1-2 ATS) vs. (7) Duke (4-0, 2-1 ATS)
(at New York)
The other Preseason NIT semifinal also features a matchup of unbeatens, as Duke returns to its home away from home to take on the surprising Sun Devils in the first-ever meeting between these schools.
Arizona State remained perfect with Friday’s 104-65 rout of San Francisco as a 15½-point home favorite on Friday, making a school-record 18 three-pointers along the way. All four of the Sun Devils’ wins have come at home, including three by double digits, and while they’ve scored 84 points or more in three wins, they’ve held all four opponents to 65 points or less (average of 52.8 ppg). ASU is making 53.6 percent of its shots, including 49.4 percent from beyond the three-point arc, while holding opponents to 34 percent shooting (29.3 percent on three-pointers).
Like Arizona State, the Blue Devils have fattened up on cupcakes to start the season, posting blowout home wins over North Carolina-Greensboro (96-62), Coastal Carolina (74-49), Charlotte (101-59) and Radford (104-67). In addition to outscoring those four opponents by more than 34 ppg (93.8-55.2), Duke is shooting 51.6 percent from the field (45.7 percent from three-point range) and allowing 35.3 percent shooting (31.7 percent from long distance). The Blue Devils have enjoyed halftime lead of at least 20 points in three of their first four games.
Duke has played multiple times a year at Madison Square Garden in recent seasons, winning the last three in a row and 10 of the last 11. However, the Blue Devils are just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 Wednesday contests and 1-5 ATS in their last six lined contests following a victory of more than 20 points. Arizona State is 1-4 ATS in its last five after a SU victory.
The over is 5-2 in Duke’s last seven lined contests overall, 6-2 in its last eight non-league games and 7-2 in Arizona State’s last nine neutral-site outings. Conversely, the under is 4-0 in the Blue Devils’ last four against Pac-10 teams, 11-4 in its last 15 at neutral venues, 20-8 in its last 28 on Wednesday and 4-1 in the Sun Devils’ last five on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NCAAB News and Notes
Wednesday, November 25
Information on the best of Wednesday's college hoop games........
Kent is 4-1, with only loss by point in OT to Green Bay; they won at Youngstown 70-61 in only road game so far. South Florida is 3-1. 4-0 vs spread, 2-0 as favorite. MAC road underdogs are 4-9 vs spread. Big East home favorites are 8-12. USF coach Heath used to coach Kent State.
Arkansas-Little Rock (-8) beat Louisiana Tech 78-69 LY, after leading by point at half; Trojans are 0-3, losing first three games by 28-14-15 pts. Tech is 3-1, losing by 29 at New Mexico, beating Miami OH by 12. WAC home favorites are 4-3 vs spread. Sun Belt road dogs are 9-15.
Denver (+10.5) lost 62-54 at Wyoming LY; Pioneers are 2-1, losing by 6 to Northern Iowa, beating Montana by 6. Cowboys whacked Boise St. by 26 last game, after losing home opener to South Dakota St. Sun Belt favorites are 2-4 vs spread, 1-3 at home. MWC dogs are 2-3 vs spread.
Pacific is 4-0 with three wins by six or less points; they're allowing just 58.8 ppg this season. Tigers have two starters back from 21-13 outfit (10-6 n Big West). San Diego State is 2-1 vs D-I teams, winning by 33,4 against Santa Clara/@ Fresno, losing by 22 at St Mary's.
Cleveland State was 5-26 from arc in 73-49 loss to Kentucky yesterday; Vikings only had one starter play more than 25 minutes. Virginia is 3-2 after 57-52 loss to Stanford last night; Cavaliers only had two players score more than 7 points. ACC favorites are 15-8 against the spread.
Stanford lost three starters from 20-14 team that went 6-12 in Pac-10 last year; Cardinal shot 8-16 from arc in 57-52 win last night- their three guards played 37-37-29 minutes. Kentucky held Cleveland State to 27% from floor yesterday. Pac-10 underdogs are 0-2. SEC favorites: 17-13.
Arizona made 14-24 from arc but still needed OT to beat Colorado by 4 yesterday; their starters all played 32-36 minutes. Pac-10 underdogs are 0-2 vs spread. Vanderbilt routed host Chaminade (D-II team) yesterday after losing to Cincinnati. SEC favorites are 2-5 away from home.
LSU is 3-0, winning by 40-11-11 points; this is their first road game for a team with seven frosh/sophs on 11-man roster, losing three starters on LY's 27-8 team. UConn lost three starters from 31-5 team; they're 3-0 but hardly dominant, beating three stiff teams by 9-14-9 (0-2 vs spread)
Arizona State is 4-0 vs cupcakes, beating San Francisco 104-65 in last game (made 18-32 from arc); this is their first road trip of year. Duke is 4-0 against even worse teams, winning all four by 25+ points- they hit over half their 3's in last two games, but this is their first road game, too.
Oklahoma got upset by VCU Saturday, making 5-26 from arc, after they beat couple of terrible teams; Sooners lost three starters from 30-6 team. San Diego beat Stanford by 13, lost by 1 at Pacific. WCC road dogs are 4-5 against the spread. Big 12 favorites are 12-7, 7-3 at home.
Northern Arizona lost suspended home game to Pacific; they're 0-3 vs D-I teams, with losses by 17-6-6 points. Big Sky underdogs are 6-6 vs spread, 4-5 on road. Santa Clara lost its last two games by 33-27 points, giving up 85 ppg. WCC favorites are 4-6 vs spread, 4-3 at home.
Maryland was lethargic in 69-57 loss to Cincinnati Tuesday, going 4-16 from arc; three starters played 31+ minutes, against best teams Terps played this year, by far. Wisconsin shot under 40% in both Maui games so far. ACC teams are 17-11 vs spread. Big 11 teams are 11-10.
Cincinnati held Vanderbilt to 28% from floor, Maryland to 36% in first two Maui games; they've got senior PG in Vaughn and are long, athletic on wings, which is why they defend well. Gonzaga lost four starters from LY's 28-6 team- they had three starters play 34+ min both games.