Wednesday Wagers
By Brian Edwards
Gamblers have a doubleheader Wednesday night on ESPN2, including a Big East-SEC showdown and a heated Midwest rivalry. Let’s take a closer look at both matchups before exploring a few Bonus Nuggets.
**Ole Miss at West Virginia**
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened West Virginia (8-0 straight up, 3-4 against the spread) as a nine-point favorite.
WVU has mostly beaten up on cupcakes this year, although it does have wins over Texas A&M (73-66) and Portland (84-66). The Mountaineers beat the Pilots in the finals of the 76 Classic in Anaheim. Da’Sean Butler led them to the spread cover as nine-point ‘chalk’ by scoring a game-high 26 points.
Bob Huggins’ team is unbeaten in four home games, posting a 1-2 spread record in three lined games. Both non-covers came in ‘chalk’ roles of more than 24 ½ points.
WVU was nearly an upset victim in its 80-78 win Saturday at Cleveland State. The Vikings covered the number as 15 ½-point home underdogs. Kevin Jones produced a team-high 23 points for the ‘Neers, while Butler went for 18 points, nine rebounds and five assists.
Since suffering its lone loss of the season to Villanova (79-67) in Puerto Rico during the Thanksgiving holidays, Ole Miss (10-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) has won six straight games. The Rebels, who are 2-1 ATS in three lined games during that span, are off a 108-64 win over Centenary in Saturday’s non-lined affair at Tad Smith Coliseum. Sophomore guard Terrico White scored a team-high 17 points in just 21 minutes of playing time.
Andy Kennedy’s team fell upon hard times last year. In fact, you couldn’t have possibly scripted the season any worse. For instance, three starters – Chris Warren, Eniel Polynice and Trevor Gaskins – went down in November and December with season-ending injuries. In addition, Kennedy and his staff were involved in an incident with a cab driver in Cincinnati that led to criminal charges and bad press galore. To cap it all off, Kennedy’s wife filed a countersuit against the cab driver for false accusations that had a negative impact on her marriage, including her sex life.
One year later, the 2008-2009 campaign is a distant memory. The Rebels appear poised to end an NCAA Tournament drought that dates all the way back to 2002 and Rod Barnes’ tenure. They own quality wins over UTEP, Southern Miss, Kansas St. and Indiana. A win in Morgantown would further bolster the Rebs’ resume.
Ole Miss rallied from a late deficit to force overtime against UTEP last week in Southaven. Then in the extra session, the Rebels found a way to win and hook up their backers as seven-point favorites. They captured the 91-81 victory behind 32 points from Warren, the junior point guard from out of Dr. Phillips High School in Orlando. White added 19 points and Zach Graham finished with 14 points and seven rebounds.
Five Ole Miss players are scoring in double figures led by Warren’s 18.3 PPG average. White is scoring at a 16.1 PPG clip, including a season-high 25 points in an 86-74 win over Kansas St.
The ‘over’ is 4-2 overall for the Rebels, 3-2 overall for the ‘Neers.
When these teams met in Oxford on Dec. 3 last year, Warren was still healthy. WVU collected an 80-78 win, but Ole miss took the cash as a 2 ½-point home underdog. Warren scored 20 points in the losing effort. Da’Sean Butler paced the ‘Neers with 22 points, 10 rebounds and four steals.
Tip-off on ESPN2 is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern.
**Illinois at Missouri**
LVSC opened Illinois (8-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) as a three-point favorite. The Illini have won nine in a row against the Tigers, compiling a 5-2-1 spread record over that stretch.
Illinois is in bounce-back mode after losing 70-67 at Georgia (in Gwinnett north of Atlanta) as an 8 ½-point road favorite. Demetri McCamey scored a team-high 21 points and converted a 3-point play to give his team a 67-66 advantage in the final minute. However, UGA’s Trey Thompkins answered with a pair of free throws, and then rebounded an Illini miss and canned two more at the charity stripe. McCamey’s 25-footer at the buzzer that would’ve forced overtime bounced off the rim. The Dawgs’ victory avenged an embarrassing 76-42 loss to the Illini last year.
Missouri (7-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) has won back-to-back games in blowout fashion over scrub competition, but the Tigers preceded those non-lined victories by losing 60-59 at Oral Roberts. They also have losses at Vandy (89-83) and vs. Richmond (59-52) at a tournament in South Padre Island.
Mike Anderson’s squad lost three key players from last season’s Sweet 16 team, including Leo Lyons (14.6 PPG) and DeMarre Carroll (16.6 PPG). Kim English, a sophomore guard who was a 3-point marksman off the bench in 2008-2009, has stepped up his game and is averaging a team-high 16.1 points per contest.
Bruce Weber’s team now has three shaky defeats against UGA, Bradley and Utah, but the team does have a solid win at Clemson and a home victory over Vanderbilt. Illinois has won all seven of its home games, posting a 2-3 ATS ledger.
McCamey leads the Illini in scoring (14.2 PPG), assists (5.5 APG) and steals (1.6 SPG).
The ‘over’ has hit in all seven Illinois games with a total this year. The ‘over’ is 2-2 overall for the Tigers.
ESPN2 will have the telecast at 9:30 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
How many teams from the Atlantic-10 are going to hear their names called on Selection Sunday? Charlotte and Rhode Island are both 9-1. The 49ers have a 22-point win at Louisville, while the Rams have victories at Boston College and vs. Providence. Dayton and Temple are both 9-2. The Flyers have wins over Ga. Tech and Creighton, while their losses aren’t shameful against Villanova and Kansas St. The Owls, who are 8-3 ATS, have a slew of quality wins. They have beaten Seton Hall, Villanova, Penn State, Va. Tech and Siena. Finally, there’s Richmond (8-3 SU) and its victories over the likes of Florida, Missouri and Mississippi St.
That A-10 conversation didn’t even include perennial Big Dance participant Xavier, which has appeared in four straight NCAA Tournaments. The Muskateers are only 6-4 but none of the defeats (69-68 at Butler, 71-61 vs. Marquette, 69-64 vs. Baylor and 71-56 at K-St.) are shameful. The losses to Marquette and Baylor came on a neutral floor. Xavier has quality wins over Cincy and Creighton.
vegasinsider.com
(15) Ole Miss (10-1, 5-2 ATS) at (6) West Virginia (8-0, 3-4 ATS)
The day’s only matchup of Top 25 teams comes from the Coliseum in Morgantown, W.Va., where the sixth-ranked Mountaineers host No. 15 Ole Miss in a non-conference battle.
The Rebels dropped their only game of the season back on Nov. 22 in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off, falling 79-67 to then-No. 5 Villanova as a three-point underdog. Since then, Ole Miss has ripped off six consecutive wins, but only three of those were lined contests (2-1 ATS). Most recently, the Rebels dumped Centenary 108-64 in a non-lined home win Saturday, setting a high-water mark for points scored in topping their previous high of 92. Ole Miss has played just one true road game this year, knocking off Arkansas State 79-57 as a 10-point chalk.
West Virginia took a 13-point lead into halftime at Cleveland State on Saturday, then built that lead to 17 before withstanding the Vikings’ furious second-half rally and holding on for an 80-78 road win, falling way short of covering as a 15½-point road chalk. The Mountaineers, who committed a season-high 17 turnovers (11 in the second half) against Cleveland State, have their highest national ranking since the 1981-82 season.
These teams met last December at Ole Miss, and the Mountaineers escaped with an 80-79 victory, but came up just short of covering as a 2½-point road favorite.
Ole Miss has scored more than 80 points in four straight games and eight of 11 contests, and it has been held under 73 points just once (in the loss to Villanova). The Rebels are putting up 85.4 points per game on 48.2 percent shooting, while yielding 67.9 ppg (41.3 percent).
West Virginia has scored at least 80 points in half of its eight contests, tallying 68 or more in every game, and Bob Huggins’ squad is pouring in 76.4 ppg (45.6 percent shooting). The Mountaineers’ strength, though, is on defense, as it is giving up just 58 ppg on 43.9 percent shooting. Cleveland State became the first team this season to crack the 70-point barrier versus West Virginia.
The Rebels are on ATS tears of 5-2 overall (all in non-conference play) and 20-6 on Wednesday. The Mountaineers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after a non-cover, but 5-11 ATS in their last 16 non-conference contests.
Ole Miss has topped the total in eight of 11 lined affairs, 15 of 21 non-conference games and five of seven after a SU win, but the Rebels have stayed low in seven of nine on the road. West Virginia is 5-2 “over” in its last seven overall, but the under has hit in five of the Mountaineers’ last six Wednesday outings. Last year’s meeting between these schools in Oxford, Miss., flew over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Illinois (8-3, 4-6 ATS) vs. Missouri (7-3, 3-3 ATS)
(at St. Louis)
Illinois guns for its 10th straight victory over regional rival Missouri when these squads square off at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis.
The Illini saw its four-game winning streak halted in Saturday’s 70-67 loss at Georgia as an 8½-point favorite. Illinois has scored at least 76 points in all eight wins (averaging 84.4 ppg) but managed just 64.3 ppg in its three losses. Still, for the season, the Illini are putting up 79 ppg and making nearly half of their shots (49.1 percent), while holding the opposition to 65.1 ppg (39.8 percent).
The Tigers are coming off three straight non-lined games, losing at Oral Roberts (60-59) followed by home victories over Fairleigh Dickinson (87-36) and Arkansas-Pine Bluff (88-70). Missouri has faced just two teams from power conference this year, beating Oregon 106-69 as a 12½-point home favorite and losing 89-83 at Vanderbilt as a 3½-point road underdog. Missouri has scored 83 points or more in seven of 10 games, but tallied just 66, 52 and 59 in its other three contests. The Tigers are strong on defense, giving up only 61.2 ppg (37.5 percent shooting), with only two opponents scoring 70 or more.
Illinois has won nine straight over Missouri, going 5-3-1 ATS. After two straight narrow wins by a total of four points in 2006 and 2007, the Illini pummeled the Tigers last year 75-59 as a four-point underdog at the Scottrade Center. The pup has cashed in three straight meetings in this rivalry and is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six.
Illinois is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 against the Big 12 and 29-13-2 ATS in its last 44 on Wednesday. Missouri is on pointspread surges of 16-7 overall, 17-5 at home, 5-2 on Wednesday and 8-3 against winning teams, but the Tigers have failed to cover in five of seven versus Big Ten foes.
The Illini have topped the total in all seven lined games this season and they’re on additional “over” runs of 11-1 overall, 8-0 in non-conference games and 5-1 after a SU defeat, while Missouri is on “over” rolls of 5-2 overall and 7-2 on Wednesday. However, the under is 9-3 in Illinois’ last 12 against Big 12 opponents, 8-3 in its last 11 on Wednesday and 10-3 in Mizzou’s last 13 against the Big Ten.
Finally, the last two meetings in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ILLINOIS
2,000-Counting
By SportsPic
Kentucky playing like the Wildcats of old have kicked off the season 12-0 and with the recent 88-44 rout of Drexel have become the first NCAA team to reach 2,000 victories (2,000-635-1). Lead by Freshman G John Wall (18.1), Patrick Patterson (17.2), DeMarcus Cousins (14.9) Kentucky has had answers for every challenge through the first 12 games including victories over Tar Heels (68-66), UCONN (64-61) but laying double digits in all but three lined games the Wildcats have struggled at the betting window going a vig losing 5-5 against-the-number. Next up, Long Beach State which is playing the most difficult non-conference schedule in school history. 49ers have suffered lopsided losses getting smacked by West Virginia (85-62), Clemson (87-79) and Texas (107-74) but they remain a profitable 5-3 in lined games. 49ers scoring 76.5 PPG on 46.5% FG, 38.6% 3PT shooting aren't about to knock-off Kentucky but could give Wildcats trouble at the betting window. Wildcats are 3-7 ATS last ten laying double digits, 3-11 ATS vs a team making 37% of their attempt from long range.
NCAAB News and Notes
Wednesday, December 23
Information on the best of Wednesday's college basketball games.
Boston College won 85-81 in OT at UMass LY; Eagles are 2-5 against spread as a favorite. UMass is off 73-72 upset of Memphis, their best win of year- Minutemen won four of last five games, are 1-4 vs spread as an underdog. Big East home favorites are 26-35 vs spread. A-14 road dogs are 14-26 vs spread in non-league games.
Charlotte is 8-1, losing by 42 at Duke; they won other road game by 22 at Louisville- Niners lost 69-68 at home to Old Dominion LY, game they trailed 36-28 at half. ODU is just 3-4 in last seven games, but they won at Georgetown last game- they're 0-2-1 vs spread as favorite. A-14 dogs on road are 14-26 vs spread. CAA home favorites are 6-12.
Miami O (+8.5) lost 60-53 at Xavier LY, after leading by 3 at the half; Red Hawks lost four of last five games- they're 0-5 on road, (2-2 as dog on road) losing away games by 11-2-25-4-7 points. MAC road dogs are 19-23 vs spread. Xavier lost last game by point at Butler; they're 3-4 in last seven games., are 4-3 against the spread when favored.
Ole Miss lost 80-78 at home to West Virginia LY after trailing by 7 at half; Rebels are 10-1 this year, winning by 17 at Arkansas Stare in only road game so far. Mountaineers are 8-0 but beat Cleveland State by two last game, scoring layup at buzzer- they're 3-4 vs spread as the favorite. SEC road underdogs are 9-12 against the spread.
TCU is 1-3 on road, winning by 7 at SMU, losing by 3 at Arizona State, 13 at Nebraska, 12 at Wichita; they're 2-2-1 as an underdog. Houston is playing third game in five nights; they're 3-1 this month, 1-2 vs spread as favorite. Mountain West road underdogs are 14-13 vs spread. C-USA home favorites are 20-12.
Oregon State (+7.5) won 62-54 at Fresno LY (game was tied at the half); Beavers are just 4-5, losing last two games by total of 8 points. Fresno is 2-3 on road, losing by 1 at Seattle, 7 at Santa Clara, 3 at Montana (won at Pepperdine, No Arizona). Pac-10 home favorites are 15-23 vs spread (5-2 in last seven); WAC road underdogs are 14-14.
Bruce Weber is 3-0 in rivalry games vs Mike Anderson's Missouri team, which pressures for 40 minutes; LY Illini led by 18 at half, won 75-59. Illinois is 8-3 after getting upset by Georgia Saturday. Missouri is 7-3, getting held under 60 points in two of the three losses. Big 11 road teams are 16-19 vs spread. Illinois guards aren't as experienced as LY's.
Santa Clara (even) won 59-56 at San Jose LY: Broncos are 2-2 at home vs D-I opponents, with last two decided by total of four points. WCC home teams are 15-13 vs spread. San Jose got crushed at No Colorado by 24 Monday; they're 2-4 on road, with losses by 10-4-5-23 points. WAC road teams are 16-16 vs spread.
Utah is just 5-6 after losing last two games to Oklahoma, Illinois State, both at home; Utes lost only road game 83-76 at Weber State, went 1-1 in neutral court games. Pepperdine lost last seven games, including loss to California Baptist (who?). MWC road favorites are 5-8 vs spread. WCC underdogs are 21-22, 7-4 at home.
Arizona got gift from refs Monday, as 3-pointer at buzzer was allowed, giving Cats 83-82 OT win over Lipscomb (replay showed it was a little after 0:00 on clock). Wildcats are 3-5 in their last eight games. NC State suspened starter Smith for bithcing about refs; Wolfpack is 1-1 on road, winning at Marquette, losing by 8 at Wake Forest.
St Mary's beat Northeastern by 11 Tuesday; Gaels are 10-1, winning last eight games with lot of new players- they're 7-1 vs spread as faves. USC is different team in two games since PG Gerrity became eligible, beating Tennessee, Western Michigan. WCC favorites are 3-6 on road or neutral sites. Pac-10 underdogs are 8-16 away from home.
Weber State (+10) lost 75-49 at Utah State LY, getting outscored 47-14 in second half; both teams are playing for third straight day, winning the last two days. Weber won four of last five games; they're 0-4 on road, losing by 9 at UCSB, 4 at Seattle, 17 at BYU, 9 at UNLV. Utah State is 40-1 in its last 41 home games; they're 5-2 as a favorite this year.
Home team won both Rider-Siena games LY, Broncs lost by 11 here in LY's visit. Siena split last eight games; they're playing for first time in 11 days. Saints are 2-1 as a home favorite. Rider is 3-3 on road, with win at Mississippi State, their only cover in four games as road dog. Rider has losses this season by 33 (Virginia)-29 (Kentucky)-9-10 points.