UConn (9-2, 2-7 ATS) at Cincinnati (8-3, 3-4 ATS)
UConn and Cincinnati open the Big East campaign at the Fifth Third Arena, where the Huskies will try to extend a three-game winning streak in their first true road game of the season.
UConn blasted Iona 93-74 on Sunday, cashing as a 14½-point favorite as they topped their previous high point total of 92. The Huskies have scored more than 70 points in eight of 11 games, but they’ve played just three teams from power conferences. In those three contests – all played at Madison Square Garden – they lost to Duke (68-59 as a 3½-point ‘dog) and Kentucky (64-61 as a one-point favorite), while crushing LSU (81-55 as a six-point chalk).
The Bearcats have followed consecutive road losses at Xavier (83-79 in overtime as a 3½-point underdog) and UAB (64-47 as a two-point chalk) with two blowout home wins over non-lined foes Lipscomb (80-52) and Winthrop (74-57 in their most recent contest on Dec. 22). Cincinnati is unbeaten through six home games – averaging 78.7 points per game and allowing 59.2 ppg – but only two came against lined competition (1-1 ATS). The ‘Cats’ only game against a ranked team came on Nov. 24 in the Maui Invitational, and they drubbed then-No. 21 (and now unranked) Maryland 67-58 as a 3½-point underdog.
UConn has won all four meetings in this rivalry since Cincinnati joined the Big East in 2006, going 3-1 ATS. Last year, the Huskies went to Fifth Third Arena and prevailed 81-72, barely cashing as an 8½-point road chalk. They also won 84-83 at Cincinnati in 2008, but the Bearcats covered as a 4½-point home ‘dog.
The Huskies have cashed in four of their last five Wednesday contests, but they’re otherwise in pointspread ruts of 2-8 overall, 1-6 in the Big East, 1-4 against winning teams and 2-6 after a SU victory. The Bearcats are also looking to shake several pointspread slumps, including 0-4 overall in lined action, 0-4 in conference play and 2-5 against winning teams, but like UConn, Cincinnati has excelled on Wednesday (19-7-2 ATS last 28).
The under is on runs of 7-1 for UConn on the road, 4-1 for UConn on Wednesday, 7-1 for Cincinnati overall, 5-0 for Cincinnati at home and 3-1-1 for Cincinnati on Wednesday. Conversely, the last three head-to-head meetings between these schools have easily hurdled the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(25) Northwestern (10-1, 6-2 ATS) at Illinois (8-4, 4-7 ATS)
Back in the Top 25 for the first time since 1969, Northwestern is set to open Big Ten play with just its second true road contest of the season as it visits Assembly Hall looking to end a 10-game losing skid to the Illini.
The Wildcats have earned some rare national attention by ripping off nine consecutive victories and five straight spread-covers in lined games. Most recently, Northwestern followed up a 70-62 home win over Stanford (covering as a six-point home favorite) with a 74-54 non-lined home win over Central Connecticut State on Dec. 22. The Wildcats’ only setback was a 67-54 home loss to then-No. 11 Butler as a 4½-point home ‘dog on Nov. 18, and their only road outing came on Dec. 1, when they pounded North Carolina State 65-53 as a six-point underdog in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
Northwestern hasn’t started 11-1 since 1982-83, and hasn’t had a double-digit winning streak since the 1930-31 squad started out 12-0 en route to the Big Ten championship.
Illinois has followed up a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) with consecutive losses at Georgia (70-67 as an 8½-point favorite) and to Missouri (81-68 in St. Louis as a two-point underdog). The Illini – who started the season in the Top 25 – have faced just one ranked foe, and that was at No. 18 Clemson in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge on Dec. 2. In that game, Illinois staged a huge second-half rally to win 76-74 as a six-point underdog. Bruce Weber’s squad is 7-0 at Assembly Hall (3-3 ATS), winning by an average of 22.7 ppg (85.6-62.9).
The Wildcats haven’t defeated Illinois since Jan. 14, 2004, losing the last 10 meetings in a row (5-5 ATS) and 25 of the last 27 clashes dating to 1995. In last year’s lone meeting, Northwestern hosted Illinois and had a 14-point lead with less than 5½ minutes to play, but crumbled from there and fell 60-59, though they did cash as a two-point home ‘dog.
Northwestern has played outstanding defense all year, holding all 11 opponents to 67 points or fewer, with eight teams scoring 62 or less and five failing to top 55 points. Conversely, the Illini have surrendered 70 points or more in five of their last seven games, yielding an average of 70.7 ppg during this stretch.
In addition to its current 5-0 ATS run, Northwestern is on pointspread surges of 6-2 on the road, 5-0 against winning teams and 4-0 versus winning teams. The Illini are 29-14-2 ATS in their last 45 Wednesday outings, but they’re in ATS slumps of 4-9 overall and 2-5 against teams with a winning record.
Northwestern is on “over” surges of 12-5 in Big Ten play and 8-1 on Wednesday, while Illinois carries “over” trends of 13-3 overall, 6-0 at home, 4-0 after a SU loss and 5-0 after an ATS setback. However, Illinois has stayed low in 12 of its last 17 conference games, the Wildcats have stayed low in six straight against winning teams, and the under has hit in seven straight meetings overall in this rivalry and four straight at Assembly Hall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTHWESTERN
NCAAB News and Notes
Wednesday, December 30
Information on the best of Wednesday night's college hoop games........
George Washington won five of last six games, winning last three away games by total of 10 points; they beat Ivy's Princeton by 15. A-14 road underdogs are 15-28 against the spread this season. Harvard is 8-2, with five wins in last six games vs D-I foes; they're 2-1 as a fave. Ivy League favorites are 8-2 vs spread, 4-2 at home.
9-3 Louisville crushed its last four opponents, as it gets ready for a huge game with Kentucky Sunday; Cardinals are 3-4 vs spread as a favorite so far this year. 9-2 South Florida won last three games by 4-20-9 points; their only losses are to South Carolina by 3, Central Michigan by 3. USF is 2-0 vs spread as an underdog this season.
8-3 Cincinnati lost to Gonzaga by 2 in OT, Xavier by 4 in two OTs and UAB by 17; they lost 81-72 to UConn here LY, and have wins vs both Maryland/Vanderbilt on neutral floors. 8-2 UConn lost to Kentucky by 3, Duke by 9; this is their first true road game (went 1-2 in NYC, losing to Duke, Kentucky, beating LSU by 26).
UAB is 11-1, losing by 7 to Kent State; they've beaten Cincinnati and Butler, and won road games by 25 at Jacksonville St., 18 at S Alabama. They allowed 52.5 ppg in last four games. Virginia is 6-4, losing three times by five or less points. C-USA road underdogs are 15-14 vs spread. ACC home favorites are 19-21.
Wm & Mary won seven games in row since triple OT loss at Harvard; their other loss was by 9 at Maryland. Tribe won by 10 at Wake Forest, also upset Richmond- they get 45% of points beyond arc, 2nd-most in country. Maryland is 7-3, winning last three games by 11-43-13 points; they're 2-4 against spread as a favorite this season.
Arkansas is 7-5, winning last five games, all at home; they're 0-2 as dog this season, but did give Missouri State its only loss Dec 22. SEC home teams are 27-24 vs spread out of conference. Baylor is one of the tallest teams in country; Bears are 8-1, winning only road game at Arizona St. by 3. Big 12 road teams are 19-23 against the spread.
Northwestern is ranked for first time in 40 years; they're 10-1, winning only road game by 12 at NC State. Wildcats are 3-1 vs spread as a dog- they've got three starters back from LY's 17-14 team. Illinois is 8-4 after losing to Missouri for first time in 10 years; they're 2-7 vs spread as a favorite. Northwestern lost at home to Illini by a point last season.
Notre Dame won five of last six games, but loss was as 21-point fave vs LMU, a bad loss; Irish beat Providence 103-84 LY- they're 4-3 as a fave this season. Friars are 8-4, 2-2 on road, losing by 9 at Alabama, by 4 at Rhode Island. Notre Dame ranked 4th in country in experience, Friars rank 253rd. Favorites covered three of first four Big East games.
Akron is 8-3, winning last four games by 24-29-12-20 points; they are 0-2 on road, losing by 21 at NC State, 12 at Texas A&M. MAC road teams are 21-25 vs spread out of conference. Wyoming is 5-5, beating Boise State by 26, Northern Colorado by 6 at home. Mountain West home teams are 26-17 against the spread in non-conference games.
South Carolina is 8-3, 0-2 on road, losing 72-61 at Clemson, at Wofford 68-61; their other loss is 85-70 to Miami in Charleston. Boston College is 8-4- they gave up 74+ points in all four losses. Eagles are 2-6 vs the spread as a favorite. SEC road underdogs are 10-13 vs spread in their non-conference games; ACC home favorites are 19-21.
Canisius is 6-6 after 2-1 trip to Mississippi when they beat Southern Miss, New Orleans (lost to North Florida by 4);. Griffins are 3-1 vs the spread as an underdog. MAAC road dogs are 13-11 against the spread. St Bonaventure lost last four games, is just 4-5, but is 7-2 vs spread, 2-0 as a favorite. Atlantic 14 home favorites are 20-13 against the spread.
Vanderbilt is 8-3, 2-4 vs spread as favorite; they shouldn't take Jaspers lightly, since they got beat in NCAAs two years ago by Siena, a rival of Manhattan. SEC home favorites are 26-22 vs spread. Manhattan is 6-5, 3-4 on road, 2-3 as underdog; only one of their five losses is by more than nine points. MAAC road underdogs are 13-11 against spread.
TCU is 4-6 vs D-I opponents, losing last three games by 10-12-24 pts; Horned Frogs are 1-3 vs spread as favorite. Mountain West home faves are 23-15 against the spread. Northern Colorado is 11-3, 4-3 away from home, losing by 1 at Oklahoma, 6 at Wyoming, 24 at Montana State. Big Sky road underdogs are 23-18 against the spread.