Wednesday's Wagers
By Brian Edwards
Bettors have put football season in the rearview mirror, bringing college basketball to the center stage. Right on cue, we get the sport’s best rivalry renewed on Wednesday along Tobacco Road. Of course, that would be Duke-North Carolina, as the Tar Heels desperately need a win to invigorate their now-slim hopes of returning to the NCAA Tournament.
Another Tourney mainstay – UConn – is teetering on the bubble and could use a breakout win at the Carrier Dome. Let’s look at these games and much more in breaking down Wednesday’s monster card.
**Connecticut at Syracuse**
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Syracuse (23-1 straight up, 15-5 against the spread) as a 10 ½-point favorite.
UConn (14-9 SU, 8-13 ATS) snapped a three-game losing streak with Saturday’s 64-57 home win vs. Depaul. However, the Huskies failed to take the cash for a fourth straight time while laying 15 ½ points to the Blue Demons. Jerome Dyson paced the Huskies with 20 points.
Syracuse and Villanova are in a first-place tie in the Big East with identical 10-1 records. The Huskies are 4-6 in league play.
Jim Boeheim’s team has won 14 of its 15 games at the Carrier Dome, compiling a 7-4 spread record. Since losing at home to Pitt on Jan. 2, Syracuse has won 10 consecutive games while going 8-2 ATS. The Orange went on the road Sunday and thumped Cincinnati 71-54 as a four-point ‘chalk.’ Andy Rautins played all 40 minutes and scored a game-high 20 points.
Syracuse’s Wesley Johnson, an All-American candidate and potential contender for Big East Player of the Year honors, sustained a bruised knee on a hard fall in last week’s 85-68 home win over Providence. Johnson played against the Bearcats but was limited to just 26 minutes and a season-low five points. The Iowa St. transfer, who averages a team-high 16.2 points per game, took just three shots against Cincy.
UConn is winless in three road underdog spots, but the Huskies are 2-1 ATS in those situations.
The ‘under’ is 10-6 overall for the ‘Cuse, but the ‘over’ is 4-3 in its home assignments. Totals have been a wash for UConn (10-10 overall).
These schools haven’t met since last year’s epic six-overtime affair at Madison Square Garden in the Big East Tournament. On that night, the ‘Cuse captured a 127-117 win as a 5 ½-point underdog.
The ‘under’ is 11-5 in the last 16 head-to-head meetings between these Big East rivals.
Tip-off is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**Duke at North Carolina**
LVSC opened Duke (19-4 SU, 14-8 ATS) as a 4 ½-point favorite.
North Carolina (13-10 SU, 7-14 ATS) appears to be on the same path as Florida two seasons ago. That’s to say that after winning it all, the Tar Heels most likely aren’t getting back on the Big Dance. They have lost seven of their last nine games and barring a huge run, starting against the Blue Devils, this team is NIT-bound.
Roy Williams’s team has lost three in a row and six of its last seven both SU and ATS, including Sunday’s 92-71 loss at Maryland as a six-point underdog. Marcus Ginyard had a team-high 17 points, while Ed Davis had 10 points and 16 rebounds in the losing effort.
Duke has won back-to-back games since losing at Ga. Tech, but the Blue Devils failed to hook up their backers in Saturday’s 66-63 win at Boston College as eight-point road favorites. Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith scored 21 points apiece for the winners.
UNC is 11-3 SU but just 4-8 ATS at home this year. The Tar Heels haven’t been home underdogs yet this season. They had their shortest ‘chalk’ spot on Dec. 1 in an 89-82 win over Michigan St. while laying 1 ½ points.
UNC sophomore center Tyler Zeller remains “out” with a broken foot. Zeller, who was averaging 9.6 points and 4.5 rebounds per game, could return in the next two weeks.
The ‘under’ is on a 7-1 run for the Tar Heels. The ‘under’ is 11-7 overall for UNC, 6-3 in its home games. Meanwhile, totals have been a wash for Duke (11-11 overall).
North Carolina has won three in a row and six of the last seven in this bitter rivalry. When these teams met in Chapel Hill last season, UNC won by a 79-71 count, but Duke covered the number as an 8 ½-point underdog.
The ‘over’ is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these ACC adversaries.
ESPN will have the telecast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
In this week’s Bracketology installment from ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi, Florida went from the “next four out” to a No. 10 seed. The Gators return to the court Wednesday at South Carolina. They beat the Gamecocks on a buzzer beater by Chandler Parsons in Gainesville nearly three weeks ago. This time around, LVSC opened South Carolina as a three-point favorite. According to our spies in Columbia, Gamecocks’ star Devan Downey rolled his ankle at practice earlier this week and was in a walking boot at Tuesday’s practice. Nevertheless, Downey is expected to play vs. Florida.
This space has been going to great lengths recently to point out how nice Northwestern’s schedule sets up the rest of the way, even when the Wildcats fell to 3-6 in Big Ten play with a 79-70 loss at Michigan St. two Saturdays ago. Bill Carmody’s team, which is now 5-6 in Big Ten action, plays Wednesday at Iowa. LVSC opened NW as the three-point road ‘chalk.’
LVSC opened Clemson as an 8 ½-point home favorite for Wednesday’s game vs. Florida St. ESPN2 will have television coverage at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. Don’t be surprised to see this number a little smaller by Wednesday morning, as it looks quite rich to me at 8 ½.
The scheduled game between Virginia and Maryland for Wednesday in College Park has been postponed. The rescheduled date has yet to be announced.
Nebraska will play host to Baylor in ESPN2’s 9:00 p.m. Eastern tip Wednesday. LVSC opened the Cornhuskers as 3 ½-point home underdogs.
Bettors have a late-night option on ESPN2 at 11:00 p.m. Eastern. That’s when Idaho will play host to Nevada in the WAC. LVSC opened the Wolf Pack as a 1 ½-point road ‘chalk.’
Five Bubble Teams
1-UConn
2-Northwestern
3-Florida
4-Dayton
5-FSU and Clemson
UF sophomore center Kenny Kadji will have back surgery this week and is out for the season.
vegasinsider.com.
Game of the day: Duke at North Carolina
By Sean Murphy
Rivalry renewed
This will be the season’s first meeting between the nation’s two biggest rivals, as the Blue Devils make the short trip to Chapel Hill to face the Tar Heels.
North Carolina swept last season’s series, including a 79-71 win on this floor. The Tar Heels have lost just once to the Blue Devils dating back to the start of 2006.
It’s worth noting that the underdog is a highly profitable 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings in this storied rivalry. The over has also cashed in six of the last eight matchups, with the Blue Devils covering only twice over that span.
Road woes
Duke has been anything but invincible on the road this season, where it has posted a 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS record this season. The Blue Devils have already lost three times on the ACC road this season.
The key has been a major dropoff in offensive production away from Cameron Indoor Stadium.
The Blue Devils are averaging just 68.8 points per game on 42.8 percent shooting away from home. That’s nearly 13 ppg below their season average.
Duke has also had a tough time defending on the road, allowing opponents to shoot a whopping 48.6 percent.
North Carolina may be in the midst of a down year, but if Duke continues to play the way it has on the road, the Tar Heels could pull the upset.
However, the Blue Devils have managed to split their last four matchups with the Tar Heels on this floor, against much stronger UNC squads. Duke has covered the number in each of its last two visits to Chapel Hill.
Tarred and feathered
Last year, the Tar Heels lost only four games en route to a National Championship. On Wednesday, they’ll be staring at a possible 11th loss and they’re not even halfway through February.
Earlier this month, head coach Roy Williams didn’t mince words when asked about the state of his team.
"How can you go any lower?" Williams quipped. "Be honest: How can it be any worse than it is right now?"
North Carolina brings awful current form to the table, having dropped six of its last seven contests overall.
From a pointspread perspective, the Tar Heels have been one of the worst bets in the nation this season, posting a 7-14 ATS record in lined games, including a 4-8 ATS mark in Chapel Hill. Since December 28, they’re just 2-9 ATS.
A win Wednesday won’t cure all, but it would give them a much-needed boost in confidence and perhaps keep their hopes of reaching the NCAA Tournament alive.
Injury report
The Blue Devils have stayed healthy for virtually the entire season, so they’ll have all hands on deck on Wednesday.
North Carolina lost Tyler Zeller to a stress fracture in his right foot back in mid-January. He’ll remain on the shelf for another couple of weeks.
Zeller had been a big part of UNC’s early season success, averaging 9.6 points and 4.5 rebounds per game.
(20) Georgia Tech (17-6, 11-6 ATS) at Miami, Fla. (16-7, 8-7 ATS)
The Yellow Jackets head to South Beach and the BankUnited Center for an ACC contest with struggling Miami.
Georgia Tech held off North Carolina State 73-71 Saturday for its fifth win in the last seven games, but fell well short as a 9½-point home favorite for its second straight pointspread setback, following a four-game ATS surge. The Yellow Jackets are narrowly outscoring opponents on the road, averaging 74 points per game while allowing 73. Defensively, though, they allow just 36.8 percent shooting overall, good for third in the country.
After a torrid 15-1 SU start, Miami has dropped six of its last seven games (2-5 ATS), all in ACC play, but five of those losses came on the road. On Saturday at Florida State, the Hurricanes lost 71-65, but got the cash as an eight-point underdog. For the season, Miami has averaged 76.1 ppg at home and given up just 59.8, though in its past five outings overall, it is getting outscored by nearly 7 ppg (66.8-73.6).
Georgia Tech beat Miami 78-68 as a three-point home pup last season, ending a 4-0 SU and ATS run by the Hurricanes in this rivalry. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the SU winner has covered the last six in a row.
The Yellow Jackets are on ATS rolls of 15-6 overall, 8-3 on the highway, 9-4 in the ACC, 4-1 after a non-cover, 11-5 after a SU win and 13-6 against winning teams. On the flip side, the ‘Canes are on ATS slides of 2-6 overall, 3-9 in conference action, 2-6 against winning teams and 1-5 after a spread-cover.
The under is on runs of 7-3 for Georgia Tech in the ACC and 4-0 for Miami after an ATS win, but the over is on upticks for the Jackets of 4-1 on Wednesday, 5-2 against winning teams and 7-3 after a non-cover, and the over is 3-1-1 in Miami’s last five games following a SU loss. In addition, the total has gone high in five of the last seven meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH
UConn (14-9, 8-13 ATS) at (2) Syracuse (23-1, 15-5 ATS)
Scorching-hot Syracuse looks to keep its Big East regular-season title hopes on track when it takes on the sliding Huskies at the Carrier Dome.
Syracuse won 11 in a row to start the season and is now on a 10-game SU tear (8-2 ATS) after Sunday’s 71-54 victory at Cincinnati as a four-point chalk. The Orange are the No. 1 team in the nation in field-goal shooting, making an eye-popping 53.1 percent of their shots, and are seventh nationally in scoring 82 ppg, while yielding just 64.1. At home, Jim Boeheim’s troops outscore opponents by 21.6 ppg (83.7-62.1).
Connecticut topped DePaul 64-57 Saturday to end a 2-6 SU skid, but came up short as a hefty 15½-point home chalk in taking its fourth straight ATS loss. The Huskies are getting outscored on the road by an average of nearly eight points per game (74.8-67.2), shooting just 25.8 percent from three-point range. However, their defense allows just 38.3 percent shooting from the floor overall (12th).
The last clash between these rivals was a memorable one in the Big East tournament last year at Madison Square Garden, with Syracuse claiming a 127-117 victory as a 5½-point pup in a six-overtime thriller, the second-longest game in Division I history. Prior to that, UConn had won and covered two in a row against Syracuse, following a 3-1 SU and ATS run by the Orange. In fact, the SU winner has cashed in each of the last 23 clashes between these two.
The Orange, who are the third-best spread-covering team in the nation, is on ATS sprees of 24-7 overall, 19-7 at the Carrier Dome, 16-5 in the Big East, 4-0 on Wednesday, 20-6 against winning teams, 20-7 after a SU win and 16-6 after an ATS. The Huskies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Wednesday starts and 5-1 ATS in their last six after a SU win, but they carry negative ATS streaks of 2-6 overall, 2-5 on the road, 0-4 in conference play, 1-6 after a non-cover and 2-5 against winning teams.
Syracuse is on “under” surges of 4-0 overall (all in the Big East), 5-1 after a spread-cover, 4-1 on Wednesday and 11-5 against winning teams. Likewise, UConn is on “under” runs of 9-4 on the road, 4-0 on Wednesday, 6-2 after a non-cover and 11-5 against winning teams.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in 11 of the last 16 meetings overall and five of the last seven in Syracuse. Even last year’s six-OT affair stayed under the posted price of 145½ at the end of regulation, with the two teams tied at 71.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SYRACUSE and UNDER
(8) Duke (19-4, 14-8 ATS) at North Carolina (13-10, 7-14 ATS)
The defending national champion Tar Heels, in the process of playing themselves out of the NCAA Tournament, look to regain some traction at the Dean Smith Center against archrival Duke.
North Carolina got hammered at Maryland on Sunday, losing 92-71 as a six-point pup for its third consecutive SU and ATS setback, and the Heels are now 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven starts – all in ACC action – scoring 71 or less in all seven defeats. Roy Williams’ squad is averaging 80 ppg and allowing 73.9 for the season, but over the past seven games, Carolina has been outscored by an average of 8.5 points, allowing 77.4 and netting just 68.9.
The one positive for the Tar Heels is that they average 39.5 rebounds per game, fifth in the country and an average of 8½ more than their opponents.
Duke edged Boston College 66-63 Saturday as an eight-point road chalk, notching its fourth SU win in the last five games (3-2 ATS). The Blue Devils are ripping off 81.4 ppg on average (ninth), while allowing 63 ppg, and they are really getting it done both offensively and defensively from beyond the three-point line. Duke hits 39 percent from long distance (24th) and holds opponents to just 28.5 percent from beyond the arc (ninth).
Carolina is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes in this Tobacco Road rivalry. The Tar Heels swept last year’s meetings, rolling 101-87 as a two-point road favorite, then winning 79-71 at home, but falling just short as an 8½-point chalk. Carolina is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, the underdog is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 matchups and the road team has cashed in four straight.
The Tar Heels are on a 30-10-1 ATS tear following a SU loss, but along with their current 1-6 ATS skid, they are in pointspread funks of 1-6 against winning teams, 1-5 at home, 1-5 on Wednesday, 1-4 after a non-cover and a dismal 7-22 in the ACC. The Blue Devils, meanwhile, are on ATS upswings of 5-0 after a non-cover, 5-2 on Wednesday and 5-2 in the ACC, but they’ve failed to cover in four of their last five road games.
The under for North Carolina is on streaks of 7-1 overall, 4-0 at the Dean Dome, 8-1 in the ACC, 7-1 after a SU loss and 5-1 after a non-cover, and the total has remained low in 11 of Duke’s last 15 Wednesday outings and 23 of its last 32 ACC tilts. The over, though, is on identical 6-2 runs for both squads when facing winning teams. Plus, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in six of the last eight clashes overall and six of the last eight battles in Chapel Hill.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(15) New Mexico (21-3, 15-7-1 ATS) at (23) UNLV (19-4, 15-6 ATS)
Two surging teams from the Mountain West Conference collide when the Lobos travel to the Thomas & Mack Center seeking revenge against UNLV.
Since suffering a 12-point home loss to UNLV on Jan. 9, New Mexico has peeled off seven consecutive victories (5-2 ATS), including Saturday’s 88-86 overtime win against San Diego State giving seven points at home. Despite the narrow victory over San Diego State, the Lobos are still outscoring opponents by nearly 13 ppg over the past five contests (78.4-65.8). During this stretch, Steve Alford’s squad is shooting 40.6 percent from three-point range while allowing just 33.9 percent from long distance.
The Rebels led by as many as 29 points Saturday against 12th-ranked BYU in coasting to an 88-74 home victory as a two-point favorite for its fifth straight win and seventh victory in the last eight games (6-2 ATS). UNLV has been killing it from the field during its five-game win streak shooting 53.8 percent while allowing just 39 percent from their opponents. In doing so, Lon Kruger’s club has outscored its foes by nearly 14 ppg (77.0-63.2) over the past five outings.
UNLV posted a 74-62 upset as a five-point pup at The Pit in the aforementioned Jan. 9 clash between these two, cashing for the second straight time in this rivalry (both on the road). In fact, the road team has covered in the last three clashes, and New Mexico is 5-2 ATS on its last seven trips to Las Vegas. In addition, the underdog has cashed in six of the last eight meetings.
The Lobos are on pointspread surges of 4-1 overall (all in the MWC), 19-7-1 in Wednesday contests and 9-4 against winning teams. The Rebels, who rank fifth in the nation’s pointspread standings, are on a bundle of spread-covering sprees, including 4-1 overall (all in conference play), 7-0 on Wednesday, 6-0 against winning teams, 8-1 at home against teams with a winning road record and 7-3 following a SU win.
New Mexico is on “under” streaks of 7-2-1 overall, 3-0-1 on the road, 3-0-1 after a non-cover, 6-2-1 after a SU win and 8-2-1 in conference action. Conversely, UNLV is on “over” tears of 5-2 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-2 in the Mountain West, 4-1 after a spread-cover, 5-2 after a SU win and 5-2 in Wednesday affairs.
Finally, the total has stayed low in three of the last four meetings between these teams, following a four-game “over” run.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNLV
NCAAB News and Notes
Wednesday, February 10
Information on the best of Wednesday's college basketball games........
UConn is 3-6 in last nine games, amazingly 0-4 on Big East road, losing by 2-3-15-13 points; they're 1-1-1 as road dog, 0-4 vs spread in last four games overall- they've won three of last four visits here, but this UConn team ain't those UConn teams. Syracuse won last nine games, covering six of last eight- they allowed 58.8 ppg in last four games.
Clemson lost four of last five games, but they're 3-0 as ACC home fave, winning home games by 16-19-9 points (lost to Duke); Tigers lost three in row to Florida State- Seminoles' win at Littlejohn LY was their first in last six visits, with losses by 5-9-6-13-12 points. Underdog is 6-1 vs the spread in last seven FSU games. Seminoles are 2-2 as ACC road dog.
Home team won last six Richmond-Rhode Island games; Spiders lost last three visits here by 2-12-14 points- underdog covered last three in series. Spiders won their last four games, allowing 51.3 ppg; they're 5-2 as dog this season. URI won last four games, all by 8 or less points; they're 1-4 as A-14 home favorite, with only one home win by more than 8 points.
Home side won last five Charlotte-Dayton games; 49ers lost last two at Dayton by 3-5 points. Niners won last seven games (four were on road); they're 2-1 as road dog. Charlotte is 8-1 in league despite trailing at half in four of nine games. Dayton is 2-2 as a home favorite in its conference games. A-14 single digit home favorites are 8-22 vs spread this year.
Missouri won last three games vs Iowa State by 6-31-14 points; State lost last two visits to Columbia by 6-31 points. Cyclones lost five of last six games, are 1-3 as Big 12 road underdog, losign away games by 5-7-21 points. Tigers are 3-1 as home favorite, winning home games by 6-17-15 points. Big 12 double digit home favorites are 4-6 vs spread.
Southern Mississippi won last four games after 0-4 start in league play, giving up 50.3 ppg; they covered six of last seven overall, are 3-1 as road dog, with only one C-USA loss by more than seven points. Tulsa is 0-5 vs spread in last five games, 1-3 as home favorite, winning at home by 4-14-20-4 points. C-USA double digit home favorites are 4-9 vs spread.
Drake (+14) lost 67-51 at Northern Iowa two weeks ago, shooting 38% for night, 4-17 from arc, only non-cover in Drake's last 10 games. Drake won its last four home games- they're 8-3 as an MVC dog, 3-1 at home. UNI won last five games, last three by combined total of 7 points; they are 5-4 as MVC favorite. MVC road favorites of 4+ points are 2-5.
SMU (+16) lost 49-45 at UTEP Jan 16; Mustangs were just 3-15 from arc, but they've covered last six games overall, are 4-1 as underdog in its league games, 2-1 at home. Miners won last seven games, winning last three on road by 5-37-9 points- visitor is 7-2 vs spread in their C-USA games. C-USA home underdogs of six or less points are 2-10 vs spread.
South Carolina star Downey rolled ankle in practice this week, had foot in boot Tuesday, is a ??? here; Gamecocks (+6) lost 58-56 at Florida on Jan 23, shooting 38% from floor, 6-22 from arc. Florida won six of last seven games, with three of last five decided by 1-2 points. SEC home favorites of 8 or less points are 3-14-1 vs spread this year.
Underdog covered six of last seven Northwestern-Iowa games; Wildcats lost last three visits here by 10-8-2 points; this is first time in six years Iowa is underdog vs Wildcats. Northwestern is 1-4 on Big 11 road, but at 16-7, 5-6 if they're making NCAA tourney, they need to win at Iowa team that is ranked 159th. Hawkeyes lost last four games by 8+ points.
North Carolina lost six of last seven games, losing last three at home by 2-13-15 points; Tar Heels are 0-3 as ACC dog, and gave up 80.3 ppg in last three games overall, but Carolina has won six of last seven vs Duke. Blue Devils are 1-3 as ACC road favorite, winning by 3 at BC, by 13 at Clemson, losing at Ga Tech/NC State. ACC home underdogs are 5-2.
Cal-Davis (+11) lost 77-61 at Pacific Jan 23, as Tigers shot 52% on nite; Aggies are 4-1 at home in Big West but 3-5 in last eight games overall; they lost by 4 to UCSB in last home games. Pacific won six of last seven games, is 3-1 as Big West road favorite, winning away games by 10-11-15 points. Big West home underdogs are 6-3 vs spread, but Pacific was winning side in all three losses.
UNLV (+6) made 11-26 from arc, held New Mexico to 36% from floor in 74-62 win at Pit Jan 9; Rebels won last five games, are 2-2 as favorite on Strip, winning home games by 5-10-14 points. Lobos won last seven games, are 1-1 as MWC underdog- they've lost their last four games at UNLV by 11-4-19-2 points. MWC home faves of 5+ points are 11-11.
Betting Duke and UNC harder than ever
Doug Upstone
Duke hasnt been able to pull away for a big lead in the ACC. Shockingly; North Carolina isnt one of its top competitors. Holding on to a slim conference edge, the eighth-ranked Blue Devils seem to have an excellent chance to end their struggles against the floundering Tar Heels on Wednesday when the arch-rivals meet at Chapel Hill.
Duke (19-4, 14-8 ATS) has a half-game lead over Maryland and a one-game lead over Wake Forest atop the ACC heading into its final eight contests of the regular season. North Carolina (13-10, 7-14 ATS), which finished ahead of the Blue Devils the past two seasons, isnt even in the picture.
The latest edition of this heated rivalry appears little more than an easy chance for Duke to maintain its conference lead. Though the Blue Devils have lost three straight and six of seven (2-5 ATS) in the series, the Tar Heels are struggling through their worst stretch under coach Roy Williams.
Defending national champion North Carolina has lost three straight and six of seven SU and ATS. The storied program appears headed toward the NIT after earning a No. 6 preseason ranking and entering the season as an ACC co-favorite along with Duke. At times, I feel we are getting better and at other times, I see us regress, Williams said. That has been difficult to handle. North Carolina is 7-19 ATS against conference opponents over the last two seasons and their losses in this stretch havent been pretty, losing by 12.3 points per game.
Coming off a 92-71 loss at Maryland on Sunday, the Tar Heels figure to have their hands full again as they try to stop perhaps the nations premier scoring trio.
Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler have Duke believing it can make a strong push in March. Scheyer (18.9 points per game) ranks second in the ACC in scoring, Smith (18.1) is tied for third and Singler (16.6) is seventh. We ideally would like to have balanced scoring, but its not really how it is, Singler said. The responsibility that Jon, Nolan and myself has,we dont necessarily look at it as pressure because we have each other to help each other out.
Scheyer and Nolan had 21 points apiece in the Blue Devils 66-63 win over Boston College on Saturday. Singler, who scored a season-high 30 in an 86-67 victory over then-No. 21 Georgia Tech on Thursday night, was held to 12 points while shooting 4 of 14. The way we have set up our team, those three guys have to be put in prominent positions to score and theyve come through pretty well in doing that, coach Mike Krzyzewski said. Duke is 7-0 ATS versus offensive teams like Carolina scoring 77 or more points a game this season.
The trio could be set for a big performance against a Tar Heels team that ranks 10th in the ACC in 3-point defense, with league opponents shooting 36.4 percent. Duke, meanwhile, has made a league-best 39.0 percent of its attempts from beyond the arc.
North Carolina is averaging 80.0 points, but has been limited to 69.8 over its last seven games. Tar Heels leading scorer Deon Thompson has been held under 10 points three times during that span. The senior forward is averaging 14.4 points on the season, but has been hindered since suffering an ankle injury last month. Like other teams ranked high in the polls earlier this year, the Tar Heels have been undermined by inferior guard play and they are 0-6 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight or more PPG after 15 or more outings this season.
Having a tough time giving Thompson help, North Carolina is in danger of losing four in a row both at home and overall. A loss to the Blue Devils would give the Tar Heels their longest home losing streak since a five-game skid during the 2001-02 season.
Betus.com has North Carolina as six-point underdogs with total of 155.5. Having the Tar Heels being this large a home dog, especially to hated Duke, has to be a sacrosanct among fans and Carolina backers. Yet the facts speak for themselves in wins and losses and UNC is 6-15 ATS after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread.
Despite what appears to be an obvious winning situation for the Blue Devils, they have lost three of last five road games. Dukes shooting prowess falls off precipitously on the road, scoring 70.6 points per game and converting 31.7 from behind the arc, compared to season averages of 81.3 PPG 39 percent on threes. Nevertheless, the Dukies 15-6 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite over the last three seasons.
North Carolina beat Duke 79-71 at the Dean Smith Center last season taking a 130-97 lead in the all-time series and the last five meetings that had total in to 150s are 4-0-1 OVER. This game is on ESPN at 9 Eastern, which means Dickie V can gush about his two favorite teams for two full hours.
Tips and Trends
Connecticut Huskies at Syracuse Orange
Huskies: UCONN got a much needed win SU against Big East doormat DePaul, as they snapped a 3 game losing streak. UCONN stands at 14-9 SU and 8-13 ATS this season. The Huskies have struggled mightily on the road, as they have yet to win a true road game SU this season. The Huskies are 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS in true road games this season. The Huskies are also 1-2 both SU and ATS in neutral court games too. UCONN is 1-4 SU this season against nationally ranked teams. Surprisingly, the Huskies have had much success in the Carrier Dome of late, winning 3 of the past 4 times there SU. UCONN has been held under 70 PTS in 4 straight games, yet still average 72 PPG this season. 4 Huskies average double digits in PTS, led by G Jerome Dyson and his 19 PPG. F Stanley Robinson averages 16.2 PPG and 7.6 RPG while shooting better than 50% from the field. UCONN leads the Big East in opposing field goal percentage, allowing only 38.2% shooting.
Huskies are 7-2 ATS last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 9-4 last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Key Injuries - C Jonathan Mandeldove (academics) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 69 (Side of the Day)
Orange (-11.5, O/U 145): Syracuse better strap on their chinstraps, considering the last time these 2 teams met, it was a 6 overtime masterpiece. Over the past 8 meetings between these 2 teams, they each have won 4 times. Syracuse is #2 in the nation, thanks to a record of 23-1 SU. Almost as impressive is the fact the Orange are 15-5 ATS this season. The Orange are 14-1 SU and 7-4 ATS at home this season. Syracuse is 6-4 ATS this season as a double digit favorite. The Orange lead the Big East conference with a record of 10-1 SU. Syracuse averages 82 PPG this season, but they've been held to 76 PTS or fewer in 4 of their past 5 games. 6 different Orange players average at least 9 PPG, with F Wesley Johnson leading the way with 16.2 PPG and a team high 8.8 RPG. The Orange shoot an amazing 53% from the field, the best mark in the nation. Defensively, the Orange have limited their opponents to only 38.3% shooting.
Orange are 19-7 ATS last 26 home games.
Under is 4-0 last 4 overall.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 74
Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels
Blue Devils (-5.5, O/U 155.5): Duke has begun a pattern of following SU losses with back to back SU wins. They hope to break that streak with a win tonight against North Carolina. Duke is 19-4 SU this season, and ranked #8 in the nation. Duke currently leads the ACC with a 7-2 SU record. Duke has struggled on the road this season, going 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in true road games. The Blue Devils are 3-4 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. Duke has scored 70 PTS or more in 17 of their 23 games this year. Duke is led by a trio of scorers that make up 3 of the top 7 scorers in the ACC Conference. Guard Jon Scheyer averages 18.9 PPG, which is the 2nd highest average in the ACC. G Nolan Smith and F Kyle Singler average nearly 35 PPG, 9.7 RPG, and 5.6 APG combined for Duke. Defensively, the Blue Devils have held 17 of their 23 opponents under 70 PTS this season.
Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 23-9 last 32 vs. Atlantic Coast.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 76 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Tar Heels: North Carolina is having a down year, but that can quickly change with another victory over Duke tonight. North Carolina has won 6 of the past 7 match ups SU with Duke entering tonight. The Tarheels clearly aren't in good form right now, as they've lost 6 of their past 7 games SU. North Carolina is only 13-10 SU and 7-14 ATS in this disappointing season thus far. The Tarheels are 11-3 SU and 4-8 ATS at home this season. Today marks the first time this season the Tarheels are the listed home underdog. North Carolina has scored 71 PTS or fewer in 6 of their past 7 games, despite averaging 80 PPG this season. Only 2 North Carolina players average double digits in PTS this season. Forwards Deon Thompson and Ed Davis average 28.3 PPG and 16.2 RPG, with each shooting better than 50% from the field this season. North Carolina is looking to avoid their longest home losing streak since the 2001-2002 season.
Tar Heels are 2-14 ATS last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 9-1 last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.
Key Injuries - F Tyler Zeller (foot) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 74