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NCAAB News and Notes Wednesday 3/10

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BIG EAST TOURNAMENT
(at New York)

Seton Hall (19-11, 8-16 ATS) vs. Notre Dame (21-10, 14-10-1 ATS)

As the 10th seed, Seton Hall opened tourney play Tuesday, and the Pirates got a big scare from 15th-seeded Providence in an offensive explosion, holding on 109-106 but falling short as a 5½-point favorite. Seton Hall, which had a 29-point second-half lead against the Friars, has won three in a row and seven of nine, and has scored 83 points or more in four straight games – perhaps not surprising considering the Hall is averaging 81.3 ppg (eight nationally) while allowing 75.3.

Notre Dame, seeded seventh, is making a late push to reach the Big Dance, despite little contributions from star Luke Harangody. The nation’s No. 2 scorer, at 24.2 ppg, missed five straight games with a knee injury and played just 11 minutes Saturday at Marquette. But the Irish have now won their last four SU and ATS, including a 63-60 overtime upset of the Golden Eagles as a 6½-point road underdog. In the last five games, Mike Brey’s troops have averaged 71.2 ppg and allowed 63.6, cashing in all five.

Seton Hall ended a six-game losing streak to Notre Dame with a 90-87 victory laying 5½ points on Feb. 11, with Harangody suffering his knee injury in the second half of the contest. However, the Irish are now 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the underdog is on a 7-1 ATS run in this rivalry.

The Pirates are 6-7 SU and 5-7 ATS outside of New Jersey (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS on neutral courts), and with last night’s non-cover, they’re on a bundle of pointspread dives, including 6-15 overall, 6-14 in Big East play, 5-13 against winning teams, 2-9 after a SU win and 7-20 on neutral floors.

The Irish, who went 6-4-1 SU and 5-7 ATS away from South Bend (1-1 SU and ATS on neutral courts), own positive ATS streaks of 5-0 overall (all in the Big East), 4-0 after a SU or an ATS win, 5-0 against winning teams and 5-1 on Wednesday. However, they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral-site starts.

The Hall is on “over” stretches of 4-0 overall (all in conference play), 5-1 at neutral sites and 5-2 after a SU win, and the over is 6-0-1 in Notre Dame’s last seven against winning teams and 7-0-1 in the last eight clashes in this rivalry. The Irish, though, sport “under” runs of 4-0 overall (all inside the Big East), 6-0 at neutral sites, 7-1 after a SU win, 17-4 after a spread-cover and 8-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NOTRE DAME

Cincinnati (17-14, 7-19 ATS) vs. Louisville (20-11, 10-16 ATS)

As the No. 11 seed, Cincinnati also had to play on Tuesday and barely got by No. 14 Rutgers, winning 69-68, but in typical fashion failed to cover as an eight-point chalk. Of 330 rated teams, the Bearcats’ 7-19 ATS mark puts them at 329th in the nation. They are 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) on neutral courts this year, averaging 66.0 ppg and giving up 61.0.

Louisville is pressing for a Tourney berth, bouncing back from an ill-timed 1-2 SU hiccup to beat No. 1 Syracuse 78-68 Saturday as a one-point home pup, which also halted a 1-4 ATS slide. The sixth-seeded Cards, who won last year’s Big East tournament, have gone 7-3 SU (4-6 ATS) in their last 10 starts, all in the Big East, though on the road this season, they are getting outscored by just over a bucket per game, averaging 69.8 ppg and allowing 72.2.

Louisville is 6-2 SU in the last eight clashes in this rivalry, but has gone an even 4-4 ATS in that stretch. In this year’s lone meeting, the Cardinalss won 68-60 at home, but Cincy got the cash as a nine-point ‘dog (one of just four spread-covers in Big East play for the Bearcats). The SU winner is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

The Bearcats are on ATS freefalls of 4-19 overall, 5-21 in the Big East, 7-20 against winning teams, 8-25 versus teams with a win percentage above .600, 3-9 after a SU win, 1-4 after an ATS setback and 0-6 on Wednesday. The Cardinals have gone 5-11 ATS in their last 16 outings overall, 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after a pointspread win and 0-6 ATS in their last six after a SU victory, but they are 47-23-2 ATS in their last 72 Big East outings.

The over is 5-2 in Cincinnati’s last seven games following a SU win and 8-1 in Louisville’s last eight Wednesday contests. But Louisville is on “under” surges of 6-2-1 overall (all in the Big East) and 5-1 after a SU win, Cincy is on “under” rolls of 5-1 at neutral sites and 7-3 against winning teams, and the total has gone low in seven of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry, including three of the last four. January’s contest stayed well short of the 141.5-point posted price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

BIG 12 TOURNAMENT
(at Kansas City)

Oklahoma (13-17, 10-17 ATS) vs. Oklahoma State (21-9, 14-9-1 ATS)

The 10th-seeded Sooners enter the Big 12 tourney on an eight-game losing streak (2-6 ATS), and Oklahoma’s 10-17 ATS mark for the season rates a lowly 306th among 330 teams. Oklahoma capped the regular season with Saturday’s 69-54 home loss to Texas A&M as a 3½-point underdog. The Sooners averaged 78 ppg at neutral sites this season, but they gave up an average of 81.2 and went 1-3 SU and ATS in those contests.

Oklahoma State, seeded seventh, has alternated SU and ATS wins and losses over its last five games, though it routed Nebraska 74-55 Saturday as an 11½-point home chalk, and 11 days ago, the Pokes upended then-No. 1 Kansas 85-77 as a six-point home ‘dog. The Cowboys are averaging 74.4 ppg and giving up 67.6 ppg for the year, and on neutral floors, they put up 70.2 ppg and held foes to just 59.2 ppg on 35. 7 percent shooting, going 3-1 SU and ATS in the process.

Oklahoma is 6-2 SU in the last eight clashes in the Bedlam basketball rivalry, but the two teams have split the cash in those meetings. This year, Oklahoma won 62-57 at home in overtime as a 1½-point chalk Jan. 11, and Oklahoma State returned the favor in a 97-76 beatdown laying 8½ points at home on Feb. 13. The Pokes have cashed in three of the last four contests.

The Sooners are on nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 3-9 overall (all in the Big 12), 1-4 at neutral sites, 1-4 on Wednesday, 3-8 against winning teams and 2-5 after a SU loss. On the flip side, the Cowboys are on ATS rolls of 25-10-1 overall, 21-8-2 on neutral floors, 18-7-1 after a SU win, 16-7 after a spread-cover, 5-2 in the Big 12 and 4-0 against losing teams.

The over for Oklahoma is on upticks of 5-0 following a double-digit home loss and 4-1-1 after a non-cover, but the under is 4-1 in the Sooners’ last five Wednesday outings. Also, Oklahoma State is on “over” runs of 6-1 at neutral sites and 16-7 after a SU victory. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE

Iowa State (15-16, 15-12-1 ATS) vs. Texas (23-8, 10-17 ATS)

Iowa State, seeded 11th, was on a 1-8 SU nosedive heading into its regular-season finale Saturday, then posted a shocking 85-82 overtime victory against No. 5 Kansas State as an overwhelming 15-point road pup. It was the third straight cover for the Cyclones, who went 8-5 ATS away from Ames this year, though they were 4-9 SU in those contests (1-2 SU and ATS at neutral sites).

Texas, the No. 6 seed, won its first 17 games of the year in ascending to No. 1 in the rankings, but has gone just 6-8 SU since then to drop out of the polls entirely. On Saturday at No. 21 Baylor, the Longhorns got rolled 92-77 as a three-point ‘dog, falling to 1-5 ATS in their last six games while taking their first loss in Waco since 1998. Despite its recent woes, Texas still averages 81.7 ppg (fifth nationally), shooting 47.2 percent, while allowing 69.0 ppg on 39.8 percent shooting.

Texas has won five in a row in this rivalry (2-3 ATS), including a 90-83 road victory in the only meeting this season, but Iowa State narrowly covered as an eight-point pup in that Jan. 13 contest. The Cyclones are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, all as the underdog.

The Longhorns have cashed in five straight neutral-site starts and went 3-0 SU and ATS on neutral courts this year. However, they are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games away from Austin and are on a bundle of additional pointspread freefalls, including 3-15 overall, 5-20-1 in the Big 12, 3-11 after a non-cover, 2-5 after a SU loss and 1-5 against losing teams.

The Cyclones are in a 1-5 ATS rut at neutral sites and are 3-7-2 ATS in their last dozen Wednesday games, but they are on ATS surges of 3-0-1 overall (all in the Big 12), 4-1 after a spread-cover and 5-2 against winning teams.

The under for Iowa State is on stretches of 5-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 7-1 after a pointspread win, but the Cyclones are on “over” rolls of 4-0 against winning teams, 16-4-1 at neutral sites and 19-7 after a SU win. In addition, the total has also gone high in Texas’ last five neutral-site outings, and in this rivalry, the over has hit in each of the last four clashes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

 
Posted : March 10, 2010 8:25 am
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Big East Update
By Brian Edwards

Four schools advanced and four were sent home from the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden in New York City on Tuesday. Twelve teams remain with hopes of cutting the nets down Saturday night at MSG.

Eight of those teams will be in action today starting at noon Eastern. Fresh off a win over DePaul, South Florida will square off against Georgetown, followed by St. John’s vs. Marquette. The Red Storm haven’t tasted a victory against the Golden Eagles since 1967.

During the night session, Seton Hall will try to play its way into an NCAA Tournament invite by knocking off red-hot Notre Dame. Finally, Louisville and Cincinnati will go at it in the nightcap affair.

**South Florida vs. Georgetown**

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Georgetown (20-9 straight up, 13-12 against the spread) as a 7 ½-point favorite with a total of 132. However, as of early this morning, most betting shops had the Hoyas favored by 6 ½ with the total adjusted to 135 ½. Bettors can take USF to win outright for a plus-220 return (risk $100 to win $220).

South Florida (20-11 SU, 19-9-2 ATS) won the lone regular-season meeting between these teams, capturing a 72-64 win at Georgetown as a 12 ½-point underdog. Dominique Jones was the catalyst, scoring 29 points to go with eight rebounds, four assists and three steals.

USF opened the Big East Tourney by beating DePaul 58-49 in the event’s lid-lifter at noon Eastern on Tuesday. The Bulls took the cash as 7 ½-point favorites. Jones had 20 points, nine rebounds, four assists and four steals for the winners. Mike Mercer, the transfer from Georgia who was a high school teammate of Philadelphia 76ers guard Lou Williams, added 14 points.

Stan Heath’s team has won four in a row, going 3-0-1 ATS. As an underdog 14 times this year, USF owns an 8-5-1 spread record.

Georgetown had lost four of its last five games both SU and ATS before trouncing Cincinnati 74-47 in its regular-season finale. The Hoyas easily covered the number as seven-point home favorites. After missing his team’s previous game due to being diagnosed with diabetes, Austin Freeman dropped a game-high 24 points on the Bearcats. Greg Monroe added 19 points and 15 rebounds.

Georgetown has posted a 7-3 spread ledger in 10 games as a single-digit ‘chalk.’

The ‘under’ is on a 5-2 run for the Hoyas, who have seen the ‘under’ go 13-12 overall for the season.

The ‘over’ is 13-12 overall for the Bulls, but they have watched the ‘under’ cash in seven of their last 10 outings.

Tip-off is scheduled for noon on ESPN.

**St. John’s vs. Marquette**

LVSC opened Marquette (20-10 SU, 15-8-1 ATS) as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 128. As of early this morning, most books still had the number at 3 ½ with the total reduced to 127. Gamblers can take the Red Storm on the money line for a plus-150 payout (risk $100 to win $150).

St. John’s (17-14 SU, 14-13-1 ATS) absolutely dominated UConn yesterday by a 73-51 count as a 4 ½-point underdog. The Red Storm wanted it more, defended harder and played with passion, while the Huskies went quietly into what promises to be a long offseason in Storrs (more in B-Nuggets below). Sean Evans paced the Red Storm with 19 points and 10 rebounds.

Marquette has won nine of its last 11 games, compiling a 7-3-1 ATS record. This late-season surge has most likely assured the Golden Eagles of an at-large invite to the NCAA Tournament. However, if a few bubble spots are surprisingly taken during the course of the next five days, a loss here might cause this team some anxious moments when the pairings are announced. They go to MSG with an RPI of 59 after going 11-7 in Big East play.

When these teams met in the regular season on St. John’s campus at Carnesecca Arena, Marquette won a 63-61 decision in overtime as a two-point road favorite. Lazar Hayward had 22 points and seven rebounds, while Jimmy Butler added 18 points eight boards. Butler’s baseline jumper at the buzzer gave the Golden Eagles the victory in the extra session.

Marquette has won 10 in a row against St. John’s, which hasn’t beaten the Golden Eagles since 1967. In the last seven meetings dating back to 2003, Marquette is 5-1-1 versus the number.

St. John’s went 10-7-1 ATS in 18 games as an underdog this season. Meanwhile, Buzz Williams’ squad has a

The ‘under’ is 16-9 overall for St. John’s, although we should note a 3-1 ‘over’ surge in its last four games.

This game will come off the board 30 minutes after the conclusion of USF-Georgetown. ESPN will have the telecast.

**Seton Hall vs. Notre Dame**

Seton Hall (19-11 SU, 8-16 ATS) disappointed its backers in gut-wrenching fashion during last night’s 109-106 win over Providence. The Pirates sprinted out to a 29-point lead with 13:36 left in the second half, only to see the Friars launch a furious rally that brought them to within three with a chance to tie at the buzzer. However, PU’s final shot was way off the mark, allowing Bobby Gonzalez’s team to survive although it failed to cover as a 5 ½-point favorite.

The 215 combined points obliterated the previous Big East Tourney record (186 points) for a game that didn’t go to overtime. It also easily eclipsed the 166-point total for ‘over’ backers.

Notre Dame (21-10 SU, 14-10-1 ATS) is riding a four-game winning streak and has taken the money in five consecutive outings. The Irish closed the regular season by collecting a 63-60 overtime win at Marquette as a 6 ½-point underdog. Carleton Scott had 14 points and 14 rebounds, while Tim Abromaitis had a team-high 18 points and nine boards.

Notre Dame senior center Luke Harangody missed five straight games with a knee injury until returning against Marquette. According to head coach Mike Brey, Harangody will come off the bench for the rest of the year. ‘Gody, who averages 23.3 points and 9.7 rebounds per contest, had only five points and two boards in 11 minutes against the Golden Eagles.

These teams squared off on Feb. 11 with Seton Hall taking out the Irish, 90-87. Notre Dame did manage to hook up its backers, however, as a 5 ½-point underdog. Jeremy Hazell poured in a game-high 35 points, draining 8-of-11 shots from 3-point range. In the losing effort, Irish senior guard Tory Jackson had 25 points and six assists.

The ‘over’ is 7-0-1 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these Big East rivals.

The ‘over’ is 12-10-1 overall for the Pirates, cashing in each of their last four games.

The ‘under’ is 13-11 overall for Notre Dame.

ESPN will provide television coverage at 7:00 p.m. ET.

**Louisville vs. Cincinnati**

Louisville (20-11 SU, 10-16 ATS) assured itself a bid to the NCAA Tournament by thumping Syracuse 78-68 as a one-point home underdog in the farewell to Freedom Hall this past Saturday afternoon. Kyle Kuric, who had only scored in double figures three previous times this year, came off the bench to enjoy a career performance. Mixing in several long jumpers and nasty dunks, Kuric made 9-of-11 from the field en route to a game-high 22 points.

Cincinnati (17-14 SU, 7-19 ATS) burned its backers yet again in last night’s 69-68 win over Rutgers as an eight-point favorite. The Bearcats are now an atrocious 3-14 ATS in their last 17 contests.

When these schools met on Jan. 24, Louisville won a 68-60 decision but the Bearcats covered as nine-point road underdogs.

The ‘under’ is 14-11 overall for Cincy.

The ‘over’ is 14-10-1 overall for the Cards, although the ‘under’ is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.

The ‘under’ is 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these programs.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

I can’t pass on this chance to throw UConn senior guard Jerome Dyson under the bus after his pathetic performance in Tuesday’s listless loss to St. John’s. Seniors are supposed to lead, especially down the stretch in their final days of wearing a uniform. Regardless of whether or not Dyson and UConn go on to play in the NIT is irrelevant, the last four (meaningful) games as a Husky for Dyson have come and gone. In his farewell effort, Dyson committed nine turnovers and had just four points and two assists. During the last four games, Dyson had an abysmal assists-to-turnover ratio of 12/22.

According to multiple reports this morning, Oregon head coach Ernie Kent has informed his players that he won’t be returning next season. Look for Gonzaga’s Mark Few to emerge as the Ducks’ top choice to replace Kent. Remember, Oregon is moving into a brand new state-of-the-art facility next season.

Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo has suspended junior guard Chris Allen for at least the first game of the Big Ten Tournament. The Spartans will face the Minnesota-Penn St. winner at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on Friday at Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

Oregon St. is 12-4 ATS in 16 underdog spots this season. The Beavers are nine-point 'dogs for Thursday's Pac-10 Tournament game against Washington. The Huskies, whose at-large hopes can't afford an 'L' here, have won four in a row both SU and ATS, including this past weekend's 82-70 win in Corvallis.

Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution thinks Ga. Tech's Derrick Favors will be better in the NBA than college.

vegasinsider.com

 
Posted : March 10, 2010 8:27 am
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Big 12 Tournament: Round 1 Preview and Picks
By PATRICK GARBIN

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Colorado Buffaloes (-1)

The Big 12 Tourney’s opening game features two of the five conference teams not making the Big Dance, unless one can make a miraculous run over the next four days.

Nevertheless, this game, featuring teams going in opposite directions, might be the most entertaining of the tournament’s first round.

Texas Tech started the season 9-0 and was ranked 16th in the nation in early December. The Red Raiders have been horrid lately. They’re on a seven-game losing streak, going 2-5 ATS (against the spread) in that span.

While enjoying its best season since the 2005-06 campaign, Colorado won its final three games for the first time in seven years to end the regular season. The Buffaloes are led by guard Cory Higgins, who has averaged 22.3 points the last six games.

The last time these teams played against was last Saturday — a 101-90 Colorado victory. Just four days later, I expect more of the same as the Buffaloes continue to gain momentum.

Final score prediction: Colorado 86, Texas Tech 79

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Missouri Tigers (-10)

Nebraska has led the Big 12 in scoring defense the previous two seasons. However, the Cornhuskers were not nearly as unyielding this year and got worse as the season wore on. After allowing an average of just 66.4 points in its first nine Big 12 games, they gave up 81.1 points over their last seven.

Missouri also struggled down the stretch, losing two of its final three games (0-3 ATS) with its lone win coming against Iowa State in overtime. Prior to that, the Tigers were 9-4 both SU (straight up) and ATS in conference play.

Regardless, the Tigers are one of the deepest teams in the country. Nine players average 12 minutes and 3.4 points or more per game.

Most importantly, Missouri has been absolutely dominating this season when facing poor and sub-par squads and Nebraska certainly falls into that category. In two losses this year to the Tigers, the Cornhuskers were outscored by an average of 16 points.

Final score prediction: Missouri 72, Nebraska 60

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-7)

This intrastate rivalry isn’t what it once was as the Oklahoma program, a 30-game winner only a year ago, has fallen on very hard times. The Sooners will finish with a losing season for the first time since 1982 while their current eight-game losing streak is their longest in 41 years.

Oklahoma has been almost as bad against the number, dropping nine of its last 12.

After getting defeated by the rival Sooners in mid-January, the Cowboys got revenge a month later winning by 21 points in Stillwater. Guard James Anderson led Oklahoma State with 31 points against Oklahoma.

Anderson ranks first in the Big 12 in scoring and was recently recognized as the conference’s player of the year. In his last seven games he is averaging 25 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 2.4 assists, while the Cowboys have gone 5-2 SU and ATS during that stretch.

I’m really surprised the line is set as low as it is for this game. I expect Oklahoma to easily extend its losing streak, State to continue its upswing, and the game’s result to be along the same lines as the teams’ last meeting.

Final score prediction: Oklahoma State 79, Oklahoma 63

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Texas Longhorns (-8.5)

How the mighty have fallen. Texas was 17-0 and ranked No. 1 in the nation in mid-January. Texas has lost eight of its last 14 games and has become only the fifth college basketball team ever to fall from atop the rankings to completely out of the polls. Perhaps even more telling, Texas is 3-15 ATS after a 7-2 start.

About the only consistency the Longhorns have had is the play from guard Damion James. James, a Wooden Award finalist and one of only two unanimous All-Big 12 selections (Anderson of OSU the other), is averaging nearly 18 points and more than 10 rebounds per game.

James and his Longhorn teammates should be on upset alert against Iowa State. After losing to Colorado by just three points and then Missouri by two in overtime, the Cyclones defeated Kansas State 85-82 in overtime to end the regular season—Iowa State’s first win over a ranked opponent in 22 tries.

The Cyclones are led by its forward tandem of Marquis Gilstrap and Craig Brackins. Gilstrap is the only Big 12 player to average a double-double in conference play (15.3 ppg, 10.3 ppg) while Brackins (16.5 ppg, 8.6 rpg) has 31 double-doubles in his career.

Texas will likely defeat Iowa State but it should be a little closer than the line suggests.

Final score prediction: Texas 80, Iowa State 76

 
Posted : March 10, 2010 8:32 am
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Big East Tournament: Round 2 Preview and Picks
By DAVID PAYNE

South Florida Bulls vs. Georgetown Hoyas (-6.5, 135), 12 p.m.

Georgetown struggled down the stretch, losing four of six both straight up and against the spread. But that’s not the team bettors should expect against South Florida.

Several players, including leading-scorer Austin Freeman, were ailing during that stretch. Freeman missed two games and was eventually diagnosed with diabetes.

Freeman returned for the regular-season finale and the Hoyas promptly put a 74-47 beat down on Cincinnati.

Now at full strength, Georgetown (20-9, 13-12 ATS) gets a shot at the ATS-darling Bulls.

South Florida (20-11, 19-9-2 ATS) out-athleted DePaul in Tuesday’s tournament opener and owns a convincing win at Georgetown, 72-64 on Feb. 3. In a physical game, the Bulls shot 31 free throws to the Hoyas’ 22.

Georgetown was a 12-point favorite in the teams’ first meeting.

Prediction: Georgetown 71, South Florida 61

St. John’s Red Storm vs. Marquette Golden Eagles (-3.5, 126.5), 2 p.m.

After Tuesday’s beat down of UConn, the Johnnies are going to be a trendy upset pick here.

Favored by two, Marquette pulled out a 63-61 overtime nail-biter at St. John’s in late February. It was about as an evenly played game as it gets. Neither team shot the ball exceptionally well and there were very few easy baskets.

The Red Storm (17-14, 14-13-1) has not been a good bet at home this year, going just 3-7-1.

Marquette, on the other hand, was one of the conference’s best road teams. The Eagles (20-10, 15-8-1) went 7-2-1 ATS on the road.

Marquette was the best free-throw shooting team in conference play at 76 percent. St. John’s was 13th at 65 percent.

St. John’s junior guard Dwight Hardy, the team’s top reserve, has missed the last two games and is questionable against Marquette.

Prediction: St. John’s 56, Marquette 55

Seton Hall Pirates vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (N/A), 7 p.m.

Seton Hall could afford to play sloppy in Tuesday’s win over a really bad Providence team. The Pirates can’t do that against Notre Dame, which enters the tournament as the hottest team in the Big East.

The Pirates (19-11, 8-16 ATS) nearly blew a 29-point lead with 13 minutes to go in the second half, but held on for a 109-106 victory over the Friars.

Give up 100 points to Notre Dame and the Pirates will be headed to the NIT.

The Irish (21-10, 14-10) have won four straight and six of seven ATS.

The Pirates got the best of Notre Dame in a 90-87 home win on Feb. 11. In that game, Notre Dame star Luke Harangody badly bruised his knee, an injury that caused his to miss five games.

Harangody came off the bench and played 11 minutes in Saturday’s overtime win at Marquette. He won’t be 100 percent, but is expected to see time today against the Pirates.

As the total and previous meeting suggest, this will be an up-tempo game. Neither team turns the ball over much, which might make it difficult to come back from an early deficit. The Irish rank in the top in the nation in turnover ratio, assists and turnovers per game. The Pirates rank in the top 15 in the nation in assists and turnovers.

Prediction: Notre Dame 89, Seton Hall 83

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Louisville Cardinals (N/A), 9 p.m.

As bad as the Bearcats looked in Tuesday’s narrow win over Rutgers, there might actually be little value on UC in today’s nightcap.

Cincinnati was the top rebounding team in Big East play this season. It keeps the Bearcats in games, despite their severe lack of offensive firepower. Louisville was middle-of-the-pack in rebounding in the Big East.

Louisville is coming off an emotional win over then-No. 1 Syracuse in the last came at historic Freedom Hall.

The Cardinals (20-11, 10-16) will have a hard time matching the emotion they played with in that upset and they certainly can’t count on Kyle Kuric coming off the bench to drop 22 points like he did against Syracuse.

Louisville beat Cincinnati, 68-60 on Feb. 24, as a 9-point favorite. The Bearcats were awarded just four free throws in that game.

That actually might not have been such a bad thing – the Bearcats are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation. Louisville commits more than 20 fouls per game, the most in the Big East.

Prediction: Louisville 62, Cincinnati 57

 
Posted : March 10, 2010 8:33 am
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NCAAB News and Notes

Information on Wednesday's college basketball games.

Big East tournament

South Florida won last four games, are 9-4 in last thirteen Big East tilts- they upset Georgetown 72-64 (+13) Feb 3, outscoring Hoyas 46-29 in second half. Bulls covered seven of last nine games as Big East underdog. Hoyas are 8-3 in this event last four years, but lost first game LY- they are 2-4 vs spread in their last six games as a favorite.

St John's is 4-7 vs spread in last 11 games as a dog, but beat UConn by 22 yesterday; Red Storm lost 63-61 in OT to Marquette Feb 24, when Eagles won despite shooting just 34.4% for game. Four of Marquette's last five games went OT- their nine Big East road games were decided by a total of 20 points, with Eagles winning last five, all by 3 or less points.

Notre Dame won last four games, allowing 56.8 ppg; they're going to use Harangody off bench, against Seton Hall team they lost to 90-87 Feb 11 in Newark (+5.5). Irish were 10-19 from arc, Pirates 12-19 in that game. Seton Hall scored 95.3 ppg in winning last three games, but Providence was foe last two games. This could be elimination game for the Pirates.

Lousiville (-8.5) beat Cincinnati 68-60 Jan 24, outscoring Bearcats 15-4 at foul line; UC was 10-20 from arc that nite. Louisville failed to cover last five games as a favorite. Bearcats are still just 3-7 in last 10 games, 2-5 vs spread in last seven games as underdog, but they're athletic in the frontcourt- last night was their first conference tourney win since '04.

Big 12 tournament

Colorado (-4.5) beat Texas Tech 101-90 four days ago in Boulder, with Buffs shooting 58.6% from floor, 34-48 from line, 7-16 from arc- they've won last three games, scoring 75-81-101 points, are 7-5 in first round of this event last 12 years. Tech lost last seven games, allowing 88 ppg in last four. Red Raiders lost seven of eight Big 12 road games this year.

Missouri beat Nebraska twice this year, 70-53 (-13) at home Jan 20, and 74-59 (-4.5) in Lincoln Feb 20; they led both games by 2 at half. Tigers covered three of last four games when favored- they won this tourney a year ago, after losing in first round three years before that. Huskers went 2-14 in Big 12, but are 4-3 vs spread in last seven games as underdog.

Oklahoma State won five of last seven games, covering last four when a favorite; they beat Sooners 97-76 (-8) at home Feb 13, after losing first meeting 62-57 in OT at Norman Jan 11 (-1). Oklahoma lost last eight in a row (2-6 vs spread), with six of last seven losses by 10+ points. OSU won their first game in this tournament in each of last six seasons.

Texas (-7.5) won 90-83 at Iowa State Jan 13, before Staiger bolted back to Germany and when Texas guards were healthier. Longhorns are 6-7 in last 13 games- they were 3-13 vs spread in Big 12 this year, 3-9 as fave. Cyclones covered last three games, getting stunning win at K-State in last game- they're 6-2 vs spread in last eight games as an underdog.

Conference USA tournament

Houston (-9) won 74-55 at East Carolina Jan 16, forcing 18 turnovers in game where Pirates shot 32% from floor; Cougars are 4-8 in last dozen games, 1-7 vs spread in last eight. Pirate coach McCarthy already quit; ECU is 3-9 vs spread in last 12 games as an underdog. Going back to '97, Pirates are 0-10 in conference tournament games (2-8 vs spread).

Southern Mississippi beat Tulane twice this year, 58-40 (-2) at Tulane Jan 30 (held Tulane to 28% from floor), 66-57 at home (-11, outscored Wave 28-9 on foul line)- they had 31 offensive rebounds in those games. Eagles are 8-4 SU in last 12 games, 5-2 vs spread as C-USA favorite this year. Tulane lost seven of last eight games, covered three of last four.

Host Tulsa lost five of last seven games, covered two of last 13; they're 1-7 vs spread in last eight games as favorite. Hurricane (-19) beat Rice 62-58 in only meeting Jan 23, holding Owls to 38% from floor, 2-10 on arc. Rice lost last nine games (3-6 vs spread), but covered five of last six as road underdog, losing away games by 19-22-4-16-10-14-8 points.

SMU (-4.5) was up 41-16 at half in 65-43 win over Central Florida Jan 27, holding Knights to 36% from floor; Mustangs are 3-3 last six games, 11-3 vs spread in last 14, covering five of last six as favorite. UCF lost four of last five games, but did cover four of last five on road. Knights' last three losses were by 4, by 6 in triple OT, by 2 points.

Mountain West tournament

Home side won both Air Force-Wyoming games this year; Flyboys (+1) beat Wyoming 70-63 Jan 30, then lost 58-49 (+4.5) in Larmaie March 2. Air Force is 0-9 (1-8 vs spread) since beating Cowboys; they're 3-10 vs spread in last 13 games as an underdog. Wyoming lost nine of its last 10 games; seven of their last eight losses are by 10 or more points.

Pac-10 tournament

Oregon may be playing for Coach Kent's job; they beat Washington St twice this year, 91-89 in double in Pullman Dec 31 (+6.5-- led by 11 at half in game where Coogs were 34-42 from the line (Ducks were 11-16)), 74-66 (-2.5) at home March 6. Oregon won three of last four games, are 5-4 vs spread on Pac-10 road. Coogs lost nine of their last eleven games.

Big West tournament

Fullerton/Northridge split pair of games; Matadors (+6.5) won 78-72 at Fullerton back on Jan 16, then lost 113-112 in triple OT (-2) Feb 13, in game Matadors led by 12 at half-- nine guys fouled out in all. Titans are 2-3 since the triple OT game; they're 5-0 in first tourney game last five years. Northridge lost six of its last eight games.

Irvine/Cal Poly split pair of high scoring games; Anteaters (-8.5) lost at home 95-81 Jan 4 (Cal Poly shot 60.4%, 11-19 from arc), then won in OT at Cal Poly 91-84 March 6 (+2), in foulfest where Irvine was 35-43 from line, Mustangs 26-35. Cal Poly lost seven of last nine games, UCI lost six of last nine, but won two of last three.

Big Sky tournament

Weber State is 7-2 as home favorite, winning by 13-8-3-21-22-10-5-25-9 points; they beat Montana 64-56 here (-5) Jan 2, then lost in Missoula 75-61 Feb 5 (+4). Wildcats won eight of last ten games, are 7-3 against spread in last 10 games overall. Montana won eight of last 10 games; its six Big Sky losses are by 11-2-8-9-1-6 points (1-1 as an underdog).

 
Posted : March 10, 2010 12:29 pm
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
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Topic starter
 

Tips and Trends

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Oklahoma St Cowboys

Sooners: Oklahoma enters the Big 12 tournament reeling, as they are quite simply in terrible form. Oklahoma has lost their past 8 games SU, the longest streak in the past 41 years of Sooners basketball. Oklahoma is only 13-17 SU this season, and will finish the season with a losing record for the 1st time in 29 years. Coach Jeff Capel is having to answer alot of questions about his job security, yet he is taking full responsibility for the team. A huge reason why Oklahoma was unsuccessful this season was their play away from home. The Sooners were only 2-13 SU and 5-10 ATS on the road this season. Oklahoma was 6-9 ATS this season as the listed underdog. Oklahoma closed the regular season being listed as the underdog in each of their last 7 games. 2 of the top 4 scorers for Oklahoma are out, so much of the burden falls on G Tommy Mason-Griffin. He is the current Sooners leader in both PPG and APG, averaging 13.9 PPG and 4.8 APG. The Sooners split the season series with the Cowboys, yet allowed 97 PTS in their latest matchup in defeat.

Sooners are 3-9 ATS last 12 games overall.
Over is 5-0 last 5 games following a double digit loss at home.

Key Injuries - G Willie Warren (ankle) is out.
F Tiny Gallon (suspension) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 65

Cowboys (-7, O/U 143.5): Oklahoma St. enters the Big 12 conference tournament as the 7th seed thanks to a 9-7 SU league record. The Cowboys have beaten both Kansas and Kansas St. SU this season, as they've proven that when they are hot they can beat anybody in the nation. Overall, Oklahoma St. finished the regular season at 21-9 SU and 14-9-1 ATS. The Cowboys were 6-8 both SU and ATS away from home this season. Since Thanksgiving, Oklahoma St. has had the exact same result both SU and ATS this season. Oklahoma St. was 9-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. The Cowboys have put up some big offensive totals this season, but have been held to 74 PTS or fewer in 3 of their past 4 games. Star G James Anderson has done his part however, as he led the Big 12 in scoring this season with 22.9 PPG. Anderson had 17 games where he scored at least 25 PTS this season.

Cowboys are 4-0 ATS last 4 games vs. a team with a losing SU record.
Under is 6-1 last 7 neutral site games.

Key Injuries - G Ray Penn (leg) is out.
F Teeng Akol (wrist) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 81 (SIDE of the Day)

Washington St Cougars vs. Oregon Ducks

Cougars (-1, O/U 133.5): Washington St. is certainly not in their finest form, as they've lost 6 of their past 7 games SU entering the Pac 10 conference tournament. Washington St. has lost both games against Oregon this year by a total of 10 PTS. The Cougars would like nothing more than to get their revenge when the stakes are highest. The biggest reason why the Cougars only went 6-12 SU in conference play was their shooting. The Cougars shot less than 30% from behind the arc in Pac-10 play. Washington St. finished the regular season with a record of 16-14 SU. In all likelyhood, the Cougars will be playing in either the NIT or another postseason tournament not named the NCAA Tournament. After starting the season 10-2 SU, the Cougars were 6-12 SU since Christmas. The Cougars were only 3-9 SU and 5-7 ATS in true road games this season. Luckily, the Cougars were 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS in neutral court settings this season. G Klay Thompson is literally the entire offense for Washington St, as he averages a team high 19.6 PPG. Thompson attempts nearly 16 shots per game this season, shooting only 41% from the field this season.

Cougars are 1-5 ATS last 6 vs. Pacific 10 conference.
Over is 4-0 last 4 neutral site games.

Key Injuries - F Charlie Enquist (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 71

Ducks: Don't look now, but Oregon enters the conference tournament with a bit of momentum. Oregon has won 3 of their past 4 games SU, and are facing an opponent they've had success against this season. Optimism is rather high for a team that finished the regular season at 15-15 SU. Oregon was 4-7 SU and 5-6 ATS on the road this season. This will be the 1st game this entire season that the Ducks will be playing on a neutral floor. Oregon enters the conference tournament as the #8 seed, thanks to a 7-11 SU record. Coach Ernie Kent is battling rumors that he has already been fired, but he believes the Ducks have 1 more run in them before his personal future is decided. Oregon was 6-8 ATS as the listed underdog this season, and will have to improve those numbers if they are to indeed make a splash over the next 4 days. Senior G Tajuan Porter will likely have to carry this Ducks team, as he has the athleticism and experience necessary for such a task. Porter is one of only 2 Ducks averaging double digits in PTS, averaging a team high 11.9 PPG this season. Porter has found his offensive stroke of late, as he's averaging nearly 19 PPG over his past 4 games.

Ducks are 1-6 ATS last 7 neutral site games.
Over is 10-3 last 13 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - G Nicholas Fearn (stomach) is out.
F Joevan Catron (back) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 72 (OVER - Total of the Day)

 
Posted : March 10, 2010 2:14 pm
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