Wednesday's Best NCAAB Bet
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Wichita State Shockers (-4, 124)
The NIT is full of teams that are happy to keep playing, but can’t help but think what might have been. Nebraska is one of those clubs after the Cornhuskers lost and failed to cover in four of its last five games.
Some of those losses were pretty ugly too as th7e couldn’t get it done against the likes of Texas Tech, Iowa State and Oklahoma State.
“We’re disappointed in that two weeks ago we were playing for a chance to go to the NCAA tournament,’’ Nebraska coach Doc Sadler told reporters. “But the fact is we didn’t get it done. And the next best thing is the NIT.”
Doesn’t sound overly enthusiastic, does he?
Meanwhile, Wichita State wasn’t much better down the stretch and has covered only once over its last six outings, but we see the Shockers getting up for this home game and relying on their depth to get past Nebraska, which has just one true road victory this season.
Pick: Shockers
What Bettors Need to Know: Alabama St. vs. Texas-SA
Alabama State vs. Texas-San Antonio (-4, 129.5)
THE STORY: The two lowest-rated teams in the RPI to qualify for the NCAA tournament meet in the first round, as Texas-San Antonio takes on Alabama State on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio. The victor will try to become the first No. 16 seed to upend a No. 1 seed in the history of the NCAA tournament. Adding to the gravity of the challenge? That game will be against Ohio State, the No. 1 team in the country in the final national polls. Neither program has ever won an NCAA tournament game.
ABOUT TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO (19-13): The Roadrunners had to beat Texas-Arlington in their regular-season finale just to qualify for the Southland tournament as the seventh seed. They then won four straight games to garner the automatic bid for the NCAAs. Senior point guard Devin Gibson is the straw that stirs the drink for UTSA. He leads the Roadrunners in scoring (17.0 ppg) and assists (5.6 apg), and his 5.4 rebounds per game rank second on the squad. Gibson had four double-doubles and two triple-doubles this season.
ABOUT ALABAMA STATE (17-17): Alabama State is far and away the lowest-ranked team in the RPI to make the NCAA field. The Hornets were 263rd. No other NCAA participant had an RPI of 200 or lower. The Hornets were a dreadful 6-16 heading into the month of February. But coach Lewis Jackson’s team won 11 of the next 12 games, including a run to the SWAC tournament title. Chris Duncan was the SWAC Defensive Player of the Year this season, helping Alabama State lead the conference in field-goal percentage defense, while averaging 1.7 blocks per game. Tramayne Moorer leads the Hornets in scoring at 12.5 and was named SWAC tournament MVP.
UP NEXT: Winner plays Ohio State on Friday at 4:40 p.m.
PREDICTION: Alabama State 64, Texas-San Antonio 61 – Frontcourt play is the key here, as Alabama State was one of the better rebounding teams in the SWAC this season and Texas-Arlington regularly gets beaten on the boards. Alabama State wins a low-scoring game in a mild upset.
What Bettors Need to Know: VCU vs. USC
VCU vs. USC (-4.5, 127.5)
THE STORY: Virginia Commonwealth, which many say stole a bid that should have gone to Colorado or Virginia Tech, gets to defend its reputation Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio, when it plays battle-tested USC in a play-in game. The matchup of No. 11 seeds features a team that finished fourth in the Colonial Athletic Association against one whose coach, Kevin O’Neill, got suspended during the Pac-10 tournament. O’Neill is back for the NCAA tournament. The Trojans, who were ineligible for the postseason last year due to the O.J. Mayo scandal, are a dangerous team that starts three seniors and two juniors.
ABOUT VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH (23-11): A controversial at-large team, VCU earned its way into the tournament with wins over UCLA, Old Dominion and George Mason and by going 8-6 on the road. The Rams nearly upset ODU again in the Colonial Athletic Association championship game. Forward Jamie Skeen (15.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, 38 percent on 3-pointers) leads four players who average in double figures, and he and Bradford Burgess (14.0 points, 40 percent on 3-pointers) cannot be left alone outside. VCU’s biggest weakness is on the boards. The Rams grab 32 rebounds a game, which ranks 301st nationally.
ABOUT USC (19-14): O’Neill was suspended during the Pac-10 tournament for getting in an altercation at a hotel with an Arizona booster. He’ll face additional discipline and a fine. His return is a nice boost for the Trojans, who lost 67-62 to Arizona in his absence. USC’s record isn’t impressive, but the Trojans own five wins against teams in the RPI top 50, and they played the nation’s 39th toughest schedule. Junior forward Nikola Vucevic (17.3 points, 10.2 rebounds) leads the Pac-10 with 21 double-doubles, and Jio Fontan (10.4 points, 4.0 assists) and Alex Stephenson (10.0 points, 9.2 rebounds) have stepped up lately. The Trojans are stout defensively, holding opponents to 62.7 points on 41.1 percent shooting.
UP NEXT: Winner plays No. 6 seed Georgetown on Friday in Chicago.
PREDICTION: USC 68, VCU 60 – The Trojans have won six of eight, including victories over Arizona and Washington, and four of their early losses came when Fontan, the point guard, was ineligible. Remember this is the team that nearly beat Kansas in Lawrence, losing 70-68. Look for USC to dominate the glass with the 6-10 Vucevic and 6-10 Stephenson.
USC Trojans vs VCU Rams
By: Willie Bee
A pair of schools at the center of recent controversy go head-to-head in a First Four contest on Wednesday when the Southern Cal Trojans face the Virginia Commonwealth Rams. Tip-off from Dayton Arena in Ohio is at 6 p.m. (PT) with truTV providing the pictures.
The battle of 11-seeds will determine who meets 6-seed Georgetown on Friday at Chicago's United Center. Early odds for this game had the Trojans 4½-point favorites with 127 for the total.
Anyone who tuned in Sunday evening when the 68-team tournament field was revealed already knows about the storm surrounding VCU. You couldn't swing a dead cat around without hitting one talking head or another bemoaning the Rams getting in over other schools like Colorado and Virginia Tech to name but two.
It's the first time since the field expanded to 64 teams that Virginia Commonwealth has received an at-large invite. It also marks the first time the Colonial Athletic Association has sent three teams to the tournament with VCU being joined by Old Dominion and George Mason.
Head coach Shaka Smart, taking VCU to the dance in just his second season at the helm in Richmond, brings his club into this game off a 70-65 loss to Old Dominion in the CAA Championship a little more than a week ago. The Rams fell just shy of the cover as 4½-point underdogs after fighting back from an 18-point deficit.
Virginia Commonwealth (23-11 straight up, 13-20 against the spread) punched its ticket to the CAA title game with a 79-63 upset of George Mason in the conference semis. The Rams were even bigger 5½-point underdogs to the Patriots who were knocked out of the tourney by VCU for a third consecutive season.
Senior forward Jamie Skeen is one of four Rams to average double-digits on the scoreboard this season, leading the team with 15.3 PPG as well as 7.5 rebounds per game. Bradford Burgess, a 6-foot-6 guard, ranks second in both departments with 14.0 points and 6.1 boards.
The Rams can take solace in the fact the controversy surrounding them wasn't of their own doing. Trojans head coach Kevin O'Neill was suspended from the recent Pac-10 Tournament after he and his wife got into a little smack-down with an Arizona Wildcats fan at a hotel in Los Angeles.
USC athletic director Pat Haden issued the suspension just prior to the Trojans falling to the Wildcats last Friday in the Pac-10 semifinals, 67-62. Haden then reinstated O'Neill just before the Field of 68 was announced on Sunday.
USC (19-14 SU, 15-14-3 ATS) is returning to the NCAA Tournament just a season after a self-imposed postseason ban and sanctions from the NCAA following a previous investigation.
The Trojans were one-point pups in the loss to Arizona who eventually fell to Washington in the Pac-10 Championship. USC closed the regular season winning and covering five of its last six games, including a 62-60 triumph in Seattle over the Huskies as 10-point underdogs.
Big 6-foot-10 junior Nikola Vucevic tops USC in scoring (17.3) and rebounding (10.2, 17th in the country). He's joined by 6-foot-10 teammate Alex Stephenson to give the Trojans a twin-tower presence, Stephenson averaging 10 points and over nine boards a game.
The Trojans' last March Madness action came in the 2009 event as a 10-seed. USC upset 7-seed Boston College in the opening round as two-point 'dogs, 72-55. Then under the direction of Tim Floyd, the Trojans bowed out as five-point underdogs to 2-seed Michigan State, 74-69, in the next round.
That was also the last dance VCU attended, seeded 11th in the East Region and dropping a 65-64 heartbreaker to UCLA in the opening round. The Rams were also an 11-seed the last time they won an NCAA Tournament game,beating Duke in the opening round of the 2007 gala by a 79-77 count. They took 3-seed Pitt to overtime in the following game before succumbing, 84-79.
Wednesday's Play-in Games
By Judd Hall
We’ve gone from 68 teams to 66 after our first two play-in games for the 2011 NCAA tournament. After Wednesday’s play-ins in Dayton, we’ll be down to the 64 teams that we’re so accustomed to seeing.
The action gets underway with a battle of 16th-seeds between the Roadrunners and Alabama State (17-17 straight up, 4-1 against the spread). As of Tuesday morning, the betting shops have listed Texas-San Antonio (19-13 SU, 1-1 ATS) as a four-point favorite with a total of 128½. Gamblers looking for the Hornets to pull off the upset can expect a plus-160 (risk $100 to win $160) return on their investment. We’ll be able to catch this game at 6:30 p.m. EDT on truTV.
Alabama State was considered to be nothing but an afterthought at the Southwestern Athletic Conference tournament. They finished in fourth place, but that doesn’t give them credit for how they closed out the year. The Hornets finished the regular season with an 8-1 mark to get into that spot in the league tourney. Then they went on to win and cover their three SWAC tournament matches.
The Hornets claimed the conference’s automatic berth to the big dance on the strength of a 65-48 win over Grambling State as six-point favorites. Tramayne Moorer guided Alabama State to the title with his 14 points and eight rebounds against the Tigers. Tramaine Butler also contributed 13 points and six boards to the winning effort.
Texas-San Antonio is making its first trip back to the NCAA tournament since 2004 and fourth all-time after a 75-72 win over McNeese State as a 2½-point pup. Jeomie Hill guided the Roadrunners to the Promised Land with his 25 points and five boards. Stephen Franklin scored 10 points, but was a monster on the glass with 10 rebounds.
The Roadrunners are a bit of a darkhorse for gamblers here as they haven’t faced a single team that is playing in the NCAA tournament. Alabama State has just one matchup this year that was against a team in the Field of 68. The Hornets lost that game to Belmont 66-53 at home back on Dec. 20.
No. 1 overall seed Ohio State awaits the winner of this game on Friday at 4:40 p.m. EDT in Cleveland.
At around 9:00 p.m. EDT on truTV, we’ll finish up the play-in portion of the NCAA tournament. That final matchup will pit Virginia Commonwealth (23-11 SU, 13-20 ATS) up against the Trojans.
The oddsmakers have installed Southern California (19-14 SU, 15-14-3 ATS) as a 4½-point “chalk” with a total of 127 on Tuesday morning. The Rams can be had at plus-170 (risk $100 to win $170) to pull off the upset.
The Rams are making their first trip to the big dance under Shaka Smart’s guidance. Although there has been some issue with their admittance into the field. It’s hard to argue with the people against VCU being here after closing out the season on a 3-5 SU and 2-6 run.
Virginia Commonwealth finished the regular season with losses at Drexel and at home to James Madison. Yet they looked like they were ready to turn the corner in the Colonial Athletic Association’s tournament by avenging that loss to Drexel and dropping a red-hot George Mason squad. But the 70-65 loss to the Monarchs in the championship game as a 4½-point underdog appeared to burst its bubble.
Smart’s Rams have been single-digit underdogs 10 times this season; they have gone 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS in that time. The ‘under’ is 5-4 in those matchups. Against teams that are in the NCAA tourney field, VCU sports a 4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS record. The ‘over’ is 6-3 in that stretch.
The Trojans were looking like a lower-tier team in the Pac-10 before the season began. But Kevin O’Neill got the most out of his team as they finished fourth in their league. Perhaps they could have made some real noise at the Staples Center had O’Neill and his wife didn’t get into a drunken slapfight with Arizona fans. USC’s coach was suspended for the rest of the tourney. That turned into just being one game as the Men of Troy lost to Arizona 67-62 as one-point favorites. The Trojans had gone 6-1 SU and ATS in their seven games before that loss to the Wildcats.
Even though USC is favored, they aren’t terribly deep with eight players spending at least 10 minutes on the court this season. Nikola Vucevic is the top offensive option for the Trojans down low with 17.3 points per game. But he’s also important to stopping the opposition with 7.3 of his 10.2 rebounds per game coming on defense. Alex Stephenson is scoring 10.0 PPG with 9.2 RPG for Southern Cal as well.
The Trojans have gone 8-6 SU and 6-6-2 ATS when listed as single-digit favorites. The ‘under’ holds a slight 6-5 edge in those games.
Southern California is 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS against teams that made the NCAA tournament. The ‘under’ is a healthy 8-2 in that stretch.
A date with Georgetown in Chicago on Friday at 9:50 p.m. EDT awaits the winner of this game.
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College Basketball Knowledge
Wednesday's play-in games
SWAC teams are 1-16 in NCAAs, with Ark-Pine Bluff winning LY in a play-in game vs Winthrop; Alabama State is 0-4 in NCAAs the last ten years- they won 11 of last 12 games, are team that uses its bench more than anyone in country. Texas-San Antonio won its last five games, with three of last four wins by 5 or less points. Southland teams are 1-8 last eight years in NCAA's; this is their first play-in game since '01. ASU is an aggressive defensive team that allowed 58.3 ppg in SWAC tourney.
USC has long trip east to play VCU squad that is 3-5 in last eight games, but a team that beat UCLA 89-85 on a neutral court last fall. O'Neill has been reinstated as coach after off-court incident; Trojans are 3-3 in this event since '07- they improved a lot when transfer PG Fontan became eligible in December. VCU is 319th in country in defensive rebounding, bad sign vs USC squad that won six of last eight games and has quality size up front. CAA road dogs of 8 or less points are 20-13 vs spread. Pac-10 road favorites of less than 7 points are just 2-7.
Other Tournaments
I'm focusing on the NCAA tournament, but since there are games tonight in other events, I'll give you one snippet of info on every game on the card. Don't bet a lot on these games; no one knows who is motivated to play here and who isn't, and that probably includes most of the coaches involved...........good luck. Be cautious.
Texas Southern is 0-4 vs Big 12 teams this season, losing to Oklahoma by 30, Kansas State by 24, Iowa State by 11, Baylor by 8 points.
Nebraska lost four of last five games, Wichita lost three of five; Big 12 road underdogs are 9-12 against the spread this season.
ACC double digit home favorites are 14-17 vs spread in non-league tilts. FAU lost to Florida by 13 points, George Mason by 15.
Milwaukee lost by 21 to Wisconsin; only Big 11 team they played; Big 11 home favorites of 7+ points are 21-15 against the spread.
Bethune-Cookman lost to Arizona by 33, Baylor by 44 in two games vs top 50 teams. Not sure Virginia Tech will feel like playing in NIT again after yet another near-miss with getting into the NCAAs.
Pac-10 home favorites of 7 or less points are 7-4 vs spread. SEC road underdogs of 5 or less points are 11-6 vs spread. Cal won four of its last five games. Ole Miss is 4-5 in its last nine.
Pac-10 home favorites of 4+ points are 27-18 vs spread. Big West road dogs of less than 11 points are 15-18 vs spread. Long Beach lost in Big West title when they had won league by four games. 49ers lost by 27 at Washington, by 17 at Arizona State, in two games vs Pac-10 teams.
A-14 home favorites of 10 or less points are 17-13 vs spread. MAC road dogs of less than 13 points are 25-16 vs spread. Miami won by 11 in upset over Xavier, lost to Dayton by 12, in games vs A-14 foes.
Central Florida was 14-0 at one point; they're 19-11 now; C-USA home favorites of less than 10 points are 5-14-1 vs spread. St Bonaventure got beat by 9 by Marshall at home, in its only game vs C-USA opponent.
Big Sky teams are 8-11 vs spread in non-league games where spread was 4 or less points. Duquesne lost seven of its last nine games.
Pac-10 double digit home favorites are 19-14 vs spread in non-league games. Weber State lost three of last four games, with all three losses by 14 or more points.
OVC road dogs of 10 or less points are 10-15 vs spread. MAC home favorites of 8 or less points are 8-13. Western Michigan won eight of its last ten games. Tennessee Tech won seven of its last eight games.
Experienced Iona squad won nine of last 10 games after losing by 5 in MAAC final. Gaels lost by 10 at Cleveland State in November. MAAC teams are 9-6 vs spread in non-league games where spread is 3 or less.
Single digit home favorites from C-USA are 5-14-1 vs spread in its non-league games. Oral Roberts won 10 of last 11 games, beating Rice by a hoop in their only game against a C-USA opponent.
Single digit WAC road underdogs are 10-5 against spread in non-league games. WCC home favorites of less than 6 points are 9-4 vs spread.