NIT
Northwestern (20-13, 18-9-1 ATS) at Rhode Island (23-9, 12-16-1 ATS)
The Wildcats alternated SU wins and losses over their last seven games, including a 73-58 rout of Indiana as an 8½-point favorite in the opening round of the Big Ten tournament Thursday followed by Friday’s 69-61 loss to Purdue, pushing as an eight-point pup. Not counting the neutral-site Big Ten tourney, Northwestern lost its final seven road games (all in conference), going 3-4 ATS.
Rhode Island seemed ticketed for an NCAA Tournament berth after starting the season 19-3. However, the Rams stumbled from mid-February on, losing six of their final 10. On Saturday, they faced top-seeded Temple in the Atlantic 10 tournament semifinals and got clocked 57-44 as a 3½-point underdog. With that result, Rhode Island enters the NIT in a 3-8 ATS funk (3-6 ATS as a favorite). Also, while the Rams have won 13 of 15 home games, they’re 3-9 ATS in lined contests as a host.
Northwestern made a rare postseason appearance last year, but it didn’t last long, as the Wildcats lost a first-round NIT contest at Tulsa 68-59 as a five-point underdog. Meanwhile, this is the Rams’ third straight NIT appearance, and they went 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS combined the last two years, though all three were road games.
The Wildcats’ ATS trends are all over the map, as they’re on slides of 1-3-1 on the road, 1-4 against Atlantic 10 opponents and 2-5 on Wednesday. However, they’re also on pointspread surges of 17-7-1 overall, 5-0 in non-conference action, 8-0 after a SU loss, 13-3-1 versus winning teams, 4-1-1 as an underdog and 8-2-1 as a road pup.
Rhode Island is 20-9-1 ATS in its last 30 non-league games, but otherwise it is in pointspread funks of 3-8 overall, 4-14 at home (all as a favorite), 6-13-1 as a favorite anywhere and 1-5 when laying less than seven points at home.
Northwestern is on “over” runs of 13-3 overall, 6-0 on the road, 5-0 as an underdog, 4-0 as a road pup, 16-5 on Wednesday and 19-7 after a SU defeat. Conversely, the Rams carry “under” trends of 4-1 overall, 4-0 on Wednesday and 4-1 as a home chalk of less than seven points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTHWESTERN
Nevada (20-12, 14-15 ATS) at Wichita State (25-9, 13-13-1 ATS)
The Wolf Pack’s three-game SU and ATS winning streak came to a halt in the semifinals of the Western Athletic Conference tournament Friday, as they lost 80-79 to New Mexico State as a 5½-point home favorite. Nevada lost all four of its non-conference road games early in the season (1-3 ATS), giving up an average of 78.5 points per game.
Wichita State has been idle for 10 days, most recently suffering a 67-52 loss to top-seeded Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament championship game, snapping a three-game winning streak. The Shockers failed to cover as a three-point underdog against Northern Iowa, and they’re just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games (1-3 ATS at home). For the season, Wichita State is unbeaten in 17 home games (6-5 ATS in line action), and it is 26-1 in its last 27 as a host (10-9 ATS).
The Shockers played in the lower-tier College Basketball Invitational postseason tournament a year ago, going 1-1 SU and ATS, with both games played at home. Nevada also played in the CBI last year, losing 79-77 to UTEP as a two-point home favorite in the opening round.
The Wolf Pack are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 4-0 in non-conference play and 5-1 versus Missouri Valley foes, but they’re also in pointspread ruts of 1-5 as an underdog of 7 to 12½ points, 2-5 as a road pup, 0-5 as a road ‘dog of 7 to 12½ points and 2-7 on Wednesday. Wichita State has cashed in eight of 11 at home (all as a favorite), eight of 11 after a SU defeat and five of seven on Wednesday, but it is also in ATS slumps of 3-7 overall, 2-5 in non-conference games and 1-5 after a non-cover.
Nevada is on “under” runs of 4-1 on the road, 4-0 as a road ‘dog, 5-0 when grabbing 7 to 12½ points on the road, and 4-0 against the Missouri Valley. However, the Shockers are on “over” streaks of 6-2 in non-league action, 4-1 on Wednesday and 20-7 after a SU defeat.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WICHITA STATE
St. John’s (17-15, 15-13-1 ATS) at Memphis (23-9, 10-17 ATS)
St. John’s started the season with six straight wins and was 10-2 SU by the time the Big East season kicked off on New Year’s Eve. However, things fell apart from there, as the Red Storm won just six of their final 19 games, including a tough 57-55 loss to Marquette in the Big East tournament quarterfinals a week ago tonight (though they covered as a four-point pup). On the bright side, St. John’s cashed in its final three games after a 4-8-1 ATS drought. Also, it won three of its last four true road games (SU and ATS), the only loss coming at then-top-ranked Syracuse.
After four straight strips to the Big Dance under former coach John Calipari – including two Elite Eight showings and an appearance in the 2007 national championship game – the Tigers have been relegated to the NIT for the first time since 2005. Despite ending the regular season on a 7-1 run (4-4 ATS), Memphis’ bubble burst when it lost to Houston 66-65 in the first round of the Conference USA tournament. The Tigers are 16-3 at the FedEx Forum this season, but just 5-9 ATS in lined games.
The last time Memphis went to the NIT, it advanced to the tournament semifinals. Meanwhile, last year St. John’s played in the CBI, losing a first-round game at Richmond 75-69, coming up just short as a five-point road underdog.
The Red Storm are on ATS runs of 5-1 on the road, 4-1 as a road ‘dog, 5-2 in non-conference play and 3-1-1 after a spread-cover. On the downside, they’ve failed to cover in seven of 11 Wednesday contests, 20 of 28 as a ‘dog of 7 to 12½ points and 1-9 when catching that pointspread on the road.
Memphis has covered in 19 of 26 as a home chalk of 7 to 12½ points, but from there the Tigers carry negative ATS trends of 7-16 overall, 1-5 at home (all as a favorite), 0-6 in non-conference action and 4-9 after a non-cover.
It’s been all “unders” for St. John’s lately, including 4-0 in non-league play, 9-2-1 as an underdog of 7 to 12½ points, 19-6-1 on Wednesday and 38-16-1 following an ATS win. On the flip side, Memphis is on “over” runs of 11-5 overall, 8-3 against Big East foes, 4-0 after a SU defeat, 8-1 after a non-cover, 6-1 on Wednesday and 10-4 as a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. JOHN’S
NCAAB News and Notes
Always hard to determine motivation in first round of the consolation tournaments; underdogs were 9-3 vs spread in last night's games.
Dayton lost six of last nine games; they opened season with 90-80 win (-7) over MVC's Creighton; Flyers won four of last five home games, were 4-4 as A-14 home favorite. Illinois State won five of its last seven games- they covered five of last seven tries as an underdog.
Weber State blew 20-point halftime lead in its home court in conference final; they're 3-1 vs spread as non-league road dog, losing at UCSB by 9, BYU by 17, UNLV by 9, Utah State by 12 (also won at Fullerton, lost at Seattle). Bearcats are 0-7 vs spread in last seven games as a favorite.
Rhode Island is 4-6 in last 10 games, going 3-6 vs spread in last nine as a favorite; Rams lost by hoop at home to Richmond, which runs Princeton type system, just like Northwestern. URI is 12-1 outside the A-14, 3-3 as favorite. Wildcats were 5-2 vs spread as road dog in Big 11 games.
Virginia Tech moaned about missing NCAA, now they get to take it out on Quinnipiac squad that lost NEC final on its home court. Hokies lost four of last six games, were 4-4 as ACC home favorite. Bobcats lost to URI by 9, toughest team they played (344th-ranked sked out of 347).
Kent State was on 13-1 roll before losing first game in MAC tourney; they beat UAB (-2.5) of C-USA 72-65 on a neutral floor in November. Tulsa went 5-7 in its last dozen games, losing at home to Memphis and twice to Tulsa. C-USA road underdogs are 16-19 against the spread.
Wichita State is 11-2 outside MVC, but lost 68-58 (+7) to WAC kingpin Utah State in Bracket Buster game; Shockers won five of last seven, are 6-2 vs spread in last eight games as home favorite. Nevada lost at home in WAC tourney- they're 4-6 vs spread as an underdog this season.
Troy had won seven in row before losing 3-point game to North Texas in Sun Belt final; Trojans won at SEC's Auburn, lost by 22 at Florida, are 5-8 vs spread as an underdog. Ole Miss beat Little Rock by 28 and Arkansas State by 22 in their two games vs Sun Belt teams this season.
St John's only played one non-league road game, losing by 9 at Duke; they're 3-5 in last eight games, 5-3 as road dog and playing for a coach who's going to be fired after their next loss. Memphis won eight of last ten games, has young team, but Tigers aren't supposed to be in NIT.
Illinois' arena is booked, so they're on Long Island taking on champs of America East, Stony Brook, which lost to URI by 17, St John's by 8 in its two highest-profile non-league games. Illini lost six of last eight tilts. Big 11 road favorites are 7-10 against the spread out of conference.
Princeton lost to Geo Wash by 15, beat St Joe's by 8 in its two games vs A-14 opponents; Tigers won last four games in Ivy Leage, which doesn't have conference tournament. Duquesne lost three of last four games and is 10-5 ot of conference. A-14 road underdogs are 20-33 vs the spread.
Akron won nine of last 11 games, but lost MAC final in OT, tough loss to bounce back from; Zips beat UIC by 12, Valpo by 20 in its games vs Horizon foes. Green Bay lost at home to Buffalo but upset Kent in its two games vs MAC opponents. MAC home favorites are 13-11.
Hofstra had won six in row, nine of 10 games before double OT loss in CAA tourney to Northeastern; Pride is 5-2 in last seven games as fave. IUPUI lost Summit final to Oakland; they're 5-6 vs D-I teams outside Summit, beating CAA's Georgia State in OT back in November.
Charleston chucks lot of 3's; they won seven of last ten games, are 7-2 vs spread in last nine games as underdog. Eastern Kentucky lost four of last five games, lost at Chattanooga in only game vs SoCon foe. Home favorites from OVC are 5-9 vs spread. SoCon road underdogs are 24-30.
Oregon State won this tourney LY; how excited they going to be to be in it again this year? Boston U lost America East final at Vermont, ending a 6-game win streak. Beavers lost four of last six games, are 4-5 vs spread as a favorite. Pac-10 home favorites are 16-26 vs spread this season.
Appalachian State has never won a postseason game, so win here would be big for them; they're 9-2 in last 11 games, losing SoCon title game to Wofford 56-51. ASU is 6-4 as home favorite. Harvard is 11-3 outside Ivy; they were 0-4 vs Cornell/Princeton, went 10-4 vs dregs of league.
Missouri State won by 13 at Little Rock, 11 ar Arkansas State in its two games vs Sun Belt teams; they lost four of last six games, have been off for 12 days. Middle Tennessee was on 11-2 roll before being upset by Denver in Sun Belt tourney; MVC home favorites are 17-15 vs spread.
Portland got manhandled by St Mary's in WCC semis; they split with Big Sky teams, winning 64-58 (-5) at E. Washington, then losing at home to crosstown rival Portland State 86-82. Pilots have lot of seniors, are an interesting team here. Northern Colorado is 12-2 outside the Big Sky.
Pacific is 3-2 vs WCC teams this year, with home side winning four of the five games; Tigers had won four of last five games before losing in Big West semis to Long Beach. Young LMU is 7-3 in last 10 games, has covered nine of last 13 games. Big West road teams are 25-27 vs spread.
Tips and Trends
St. John's Red Storm at Memphis Tigers
Red Storm: An NIT berth was welcomed with open arms for St. Johns, as the Red Storm finished the season only 17-15 SU. Without question St. Johns played one of the toughest schedules in the country this year, as the Big East is brutally difficult. St. Johns finished Big East play with a 6-12 SU record. Despite the struggles in conference play, St. Johns is a very tough opponent to match up with. The Red Storm play a physical brand of ball, and have a very deep bench that fights you for 40 minutes. The Red Storm were 9-9 SU and 12-6 ATS away from home this season. The Red Storm were 11-7-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season. St. Johns played very sound defense in the Big East conference tournament, allowing only 54 PPG in their 2 games there. G D.J. Kennedy is the heart and soul of this team, as he led the team in all 3 major offensive categories. Kennedy averaged 15 PPG, 6.1 RPG, and 3.1 APG this season. It appears the only thing that would save Coach Norm Roberts from being fired is an NIT Championship.
Red Storm is 4-1 ATS last 5 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-0 last 4 non-conference games.
Key Injuries - G Dwight Hardy (knee) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 63 (Side of the Day)
Tigers (-7.5, O/U 134): It's been 5 years since Memphis has played in any postseason tournament other than the NCAA Tournament. Motivation will likely be an issue for Memphis tonight, as they lost SU in the quarterfinals of their conference tournament to lose any chance of making the NCAA Tournament field. Memphis was 23-9 SU this season, and finished 13-4 SU in conference play this season. The Tigers were 16-3 SU and 5-9 ATS this season at home. Memphis was 4-6 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. Memphis has lost 4 of their past 5 games ATS at home entering tonight's contest. G Elliot Williams leads 4 different Tigers averaging double figures in PTS this season. Williams averaged 18.3 PPG this season while starting every game this season. Williams struggled against his toughest competition however, shooting less than 30% against his 4 toughest opponents. Memphis is shooting better than 38% from the 3 point line this season. Rebounding continues to be an issue for the Tigers, as they only outrebounded league opponents 3 times out of a possible 16 games this season.
Tigers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 8-1 last 9 games following an ATS loss.
Key Injuries - F Pierre Henderson-Niles (academics) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 65