Rhode Island (25-9, 13-17-1 ATS) at Virginia Tech (25-8, 13-13-1 ATS)
After scoring a pair of NIT wins at home, Rhode Island now heads south to Cassell Coliseum in Blacksburg, Va., for a showdown against the Hokies with a trip to Madison Square Garden on the line.
The Rams had little trouble with Northwestern a week ago today, posting a 76-64 opening-round victory as a six-point home favorite. However, they barely held off Nevada on Monday, winning 85-83 while coming up way short as an 8½-point chalk. Rhode Island has won four of its last five games – the only setback being a 13-point loss to Temple in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 tournament – but the Rams are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games, alternating spread-covers in the last five.
Virginia Tech also opened the NIT with an easy victory a week ago, pummeling Quinnipiac 81-61 as a 13-point home chalk. But the Hokies barely escaped against UConn in a second-round matchup Monday, getting the game-winning basket with less than 20 seconds remaining to survive 65-63 as a 4½-point home favorite. Like the Rams, Va-Tech has won four of its last five (3-2 ATS), with a 70-65 loss to Miami (Fla.) in the ACC tournament quarterfinals ending the Hokies’ NCAA Tournament hopes.
Rhode Island has been decent on the highway this season, going 10-7 in road/neutral-site games (9-7-1 ATS). Meanwhile, the Hokies are now 17-1 at home, outscoring visitors by an average of 15.1 points per game (75.2-60.1). However, they’re just 6-7 ATS in lined home contests.
These teams haven’t met since November 2001, when Virginia Tech rolled to an 86-63 victory as a 13-point favorite. They’ve split four contests SU and ATS since 1998.
The Rams are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last five after a non-cover, but they’re also on pointspread nosedives of 4-9 overall, 1-5 on the road and 1-6 after a SU win. Virginia Tech is on positive ATS stretches of 5-1 outside the ACC, 7-1 on Wednesday and 6-2-1 after a non-cover, but it has also failed to cover in five of seven at home and it is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six after a SU victory.
It’s been all “unders” for Rhode Island, including 5-2 overall, 16-5-1 on the road, 5-0 on Wednesday, 11-4 after a SU win and 14-5-1 after an ATS setback. Also, Va-Tech has stayed low in seven of 10 at home and seven of eight versus the ACC, but the over is 12-3 in the Hokies’ last 15 non-conference games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA TECH and UNDER
Dayton (22-12, 15-15-1 ATS) at Illinois (21-14, 16-18 ATS)
The Flyers try for their second straight road upset when they invade Assembly Hall for an NIT quarterfinal matchup against Illinois.
Five days after opening the NIT with a 21-point rout of Illinois State, Dayton made the short trek to Cincinnati on Monday and throttled the Bearcats 81-66 as a three-point underdog. It’s the first time since early February that Dayton has scored two straight wins, as the Flyers had ended the season in a 3-6 slump (1-7-1 ATS). Also, prior to winning at Cincinnati, they had lost four in a row (0-3-1 ATS) and six of seven (2-4-1 ATS) true road contests.
The Illini have taken advantage of their No. 1 seed in this tournament, crushing Stony Brook 76-66 as a seven-point road favorite a week ago tonight followed by Monday’s 75-58 rout of Kent State as an eight-point favorite. Illinois has won three of its last four games (4-0 ATS), a surge that comes on the heels of a 1-5 (2-4 ATS) funk. The SU winner is 7-2 ATS in the Illini’s last nine games.
Even with Monday’s win at Cincinnati, Dayton remains just 6-10 in road/neutral-site games (6-9-1 ATS). The Illini are 13-4 inside Assembly Hall, but just 6-10 ATS in lined action.
The Flyers have cashed in six straight non-Atlantic 10 games and seven of nine on Wednesday, but they’re otherwise in ATS slumps of 3-7-1 overall, 1-4-1 on the highway, 2-6-1 versus winning teams and 1-3-1 after a SU victory. Illinois is on ATS runs of 4-0 overall, 5-2 after a victory, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 31-15-2 on Wednesday, but it has failed to cover in six of its last eight at home.
Dayton has stayed under the total in six straight Wednesday contests and seven of eight non-conference games, but the Flyers also carry “over” trends of 4-1 overall, 5-2 on the road and 4-1 after a victory. Meanwhile, Illinois is on “over” stretches of 12-5 at home, 11-1 outside the Big Ten and 5-1 on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ILLINOIS and OVER
NCAAB News and Notes
Pacific-Appalachian State game got moved back to Thursday.
Virginia Tech, Rhode Island both won four of last five games; Tech lost 61-50 (+5) in only game vs A-14 opponent, vs Temple. URI scored 181 points with only 10 turnovers in first two NIT games; they won 80-69 (+4.5) at Boston College in its only game vs ACC foe. URI was 0-3 vs Temple team that beat Hokies. Tech split pair of games with BC.
Dayton held both its first two NIT foes to 33.3% from floor; Flyers are 3-1 in last four games, after 2-5 finish to regular season- win Monday is huge for Dayton in regional rivalry over Cincinnati. Illinois spanked a pretty good Kent State team by 17 Monday; they're also 3-1 in last four games, after 1-5 skid to end regular season.
Boston U is 25-60 from arc in first two tourney wins, at Oregon State and vs Morehead State; Terriers are 2-0 vs CAA teams, with OT win vs Northeastern and Bracket Busters over Delaware. VCU won six of last eight games; they're 18-42 from arc in first two tourney games. Boston won eight of last nine games, losing at Vermont in America East final.
Princeton/Saint Louis both won in double OT Monday, but Tigers were on road, Billikens at home; Tigers won last seven games- they held both foes to 37% from floor in this tourney, are 2-1 vs A-14 opponents, with wins over St Joe's/Duquesne, 65-50 loss to GW. Billikens won 10 of last 13 games- their last two opponents shot 32/36% from the floor.
Home side won both Creighton-Missouri State games; Bears lost 76-72 in Omaha (+4.5), then beat Bluejays 70-52 (-5) at home 13 days later. Creighton won four of last five games; they're 19-38 from arc in winning first two tourney games. State shot 60% in first tourney game, then beat La Tech team whose two best players were hurt and didn't play.
Trend Report - Wednesday
By Ed Meyer
Timberwolves at Bobcats – The Bobcats are 15-0-1 ATS (12.8 ppg) since March 04, 2008 off a win in which they trailed by 10+ points. The Bobcats are 9-0 ATS (9.0 ppg) since April 14, 2007 as a favorite after a game in which they shot less than 40% from the field.
76ers at Bucks – The Sixers are 0-9 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since February 17, 2009 on the road after a game in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Bucks are 10-0 ATS (6.1 ppg) since December 02, 2009 after a game at home in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Bucks are 0-6-1 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since January 30, 2008 versus the 76ers.
Nuggets at Celtics – The Nuggets are 0-7 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since December 03, 2005 with no rest after a loss in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted. The Celtics are 0-9 ATS (-4.1 ppg) since December 06, 2006 with at most one day of rest after a road loss in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line. The Celtics are 0-7 ATS (-9.0 ppg) since March 18, 2009 off a road loss in which they led by 10+ points.
Magic at Hawks – The Magic are 0-8 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since November 28, 2009 on the road with at most one day of rest after a game in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. The Hawks are 7-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since December 10, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a road loss in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Hawks are 0-6 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since January 01, 2010 with at least one day of rest off a loss in which they led by 10+ points.
Cavaliers at Hornets – The Hornets are 0-10 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since April 03, 2009 with at least one day of rest after a win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Hornets are 8-0 ATS (8.0 ppg) since January 21, 2009 after a game at home in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. The Hornets are 7-0 ATS (6.6 ppg) since January 23, 2008 at home with at most one day of rest after a double digit home win in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.
Kings at Nets – The Kings are 0-6 ATS (-7.5 ppg) since April 07, 2009 after a home loss in which their DPA was negative. The Nets are 0-7-1 ATS (-7.0 ppg) since February 19, 2010 at home when facing a team they lost to as a dog in their previous same-season match-up.
Wizards at Pacers – The Wizards are 0-7 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since December 03, 1995 on the road after a game at home in which they had at least 10 more personal fouls than their opponent. The Wizards are 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since November 03, 2007 with no rest after a loss in which they had more turnovers than assists. The Pacers are 0-10-1 ATS (-14.5 ppg) since March 09, 2003 with no rest when their opponent is off an overtime game.
Jazz at Raptors – The Jazz are 11-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since March 17, 2008 as a favorite when facing a non-conference team they beat in their first match-up of the season. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS (6.4 ppg) since November 10, 2008 after a road win in which more than 70% of their baskets were assisted.
Lakers at Spurs – The Lakers are 0-11 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since May 05, 2003 on the road with two or more days of rest after a game in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Spurs are 0-6 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since January 11, 2009 at home when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss. The Spurs are 0-6 ATS (-12.2 ppg) since April 23, 2009 when less than 50% of their baskets were assisted for two straight games.
Rockets at Thunder – The Thunder are 9-0 ATS (7.0 ppg) since November 22, 2008 after a game at home in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line. The Thunder are 8-0 ATS (18.8 ppg) since April 15, 2009 after a loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line.
Grizzlies at Warriors – The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS (6.2 ppg) since December 28, 2001 after a double digit win in which they were whistled for fewer than 15 personal fouls. The Warriors are 9-0 ATS (11.5 ppg) since January 16, 2009 at home after a loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent. The Warriors are 6-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since February 10, 2010 at home after a game in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.