Wednesday's NIT Tips
By Brian Edwards
The final two spots for next week’s NIT Final Four at Madison Square Garden in New York City are up for grabs Wednesday night. Kentucky and Notre Dame, two of the nation’s biggest disappointments, will collide at the Joyce Center in South Bend with one slot on the line, while the other will go to the Saint Mary’s-San Diego St. winner from out West.
**Kentucky at Notre Dame**
--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Notre Dame (20-14 straight up, 10-18 against the spread) as a three-point favorite with a total of 142 ½.
--Kentucky (22-13 SU, 15-14-1 ATS) played in front of a raucous crowd in Omaha on Monday and trailed for nearly the entire game before capturing a 65-63 win at Creighton. Trailing by one with 17.9 second left, the Wildcats came out of a timeout and got the ball to its go-to guy Jodie Meeks, who drove into the lane and hit a running flip shot and got fouled. After converting the 3-point play, UK got the stop it needed and headed home with the ‘W.’
--Billy Gillispie’s team knocked off the Bluejays as a two-point underdog at most books. The ‘Cats cashed money-line tickets for a plus-110 payout, while the 128 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 140-point total. Meeks finished with 16 points on 4-of-9 shooting. Perry Stevenson had 13 points and 10 rebounds for his first double-double since a Jan. 24 win at Alabama. Ramon Harris had nine points, a career-high eight assists, four rebounds and a pair of steals. Patrick Patterson, who was forced to sit out 15 minutes in the first half with two fouls, finished with 12 points, five board and two blocks in just 20 minutes of playing time.
--Notre Dame advanced to the NIT quarterfinals with wins over UAB and New Mexico. The Irish overcame a six-point deficit with two minutes left to beat the Lobos 70-68 on an under-handed scoop shot by Tory Jackson with two ticks remaining. They failed to cover the five-point number against New Mexico even after leading by 10 at intermission.
--Luke Harangody had 26 points and 11 rebounds against the Lobos. Jackson added 16 points, six rebounds and three assists in front of a sparse crowd in South Bend that barely netted 3,000 in attendance. Kyle McAlarney was also in double figures with 11 points.
--This matchup features two of the nation’s premier low-post players in Harangody and Patterson. Harangody averages 23.3 points and 11.9 rebounds per game, while Patterson averages 18.1 points and 9.4 rebounds per contest. In addition, we have two of the country’s premier long-range shooters in Meeks and McAlarney.
--Meeks, who averages an SEC-best 24.0 PPG, has averaged just 14.3 PPG in UK’s last three outings.
--Following the win at Creighton, Gillispie shrugged off all questions about his job security, telling the Lexington Herald-Leader, “I’m not worried one second about all that stuff. It’s not about me.” (More on Gillespie’s tenuous job status in Bonus Nuggets below.)
--Mike Brey’s squad is 14-3 SU but just 5-7 ATS at home this year.
--The ‘under’ is on a money-making role for both teams recently. The Irish have watched the ‘under’ go 10-1 in their last 11 games, 16-11 overall and 9-2 in their home assignments. UK has seen the ‘under’ cash in five consecutive games and go 17-13 overall.
--Since 2001, Kentucky has won all four head-to-head meetings between these schools both SU and ATS.
--ESPN2 will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
**Saint Mary’s at San Diego State**
--LVSC opened San Diego State (25-9 SU, 17-12-1 ATS) as a three-point favorite with a total of 132.
--Twenty years after Steve Fisher led Michigan to the 1989 national championship as the school’s interim coach, he is attempting to lead the Aztecs to an NIT title. They advanced to the tournament quarterfinals by virtue of home wins over Weber St. and Kansas St. both SU and ATS.
--San Diego St. beat Weber St. 65-49 as an 11 ½-point favorite in the first round. Next, the Aztecs thumped the Wildcats by a 70-52 count as five-point ‘chalk.’ Kyle Spain paced the winners with 16 points and seven rebounds.
--Saint Mary’s (28-6 SU, 16-12-1 ATS) has won nine of its last 10 games, including Monday’s 80-68 win over Davidson as a five-point home favorite. Patty Mills led the Gaels with 23 points and 10 assists, while his counterpart Stephen Curry went for 26 points, nine rebounds and six assists. However, Curry had six turnovers compared to just one from Mills. Despite missing all five of his free-throw attempts, Diamon Simpson finished with 12 points, 14 rebounds, three steals and two blocked shots.
--Randy Bennett’s team knocked off Washington St. 68-57 in its first-round game as a 4 ½-point home favorite. Mills dropped 27 points on the Cougars thanks to 5-of-9 shooting from 3-point range.
--San Diego St. owns a 15-3 SU record and a 10-5-1 ATS mark at home this season. Since losing at home to BYU on Feb. 24, the Aztecs have won four in a row at home while going 3-1 ATS.
--These teams met at this same venue on Dec. 13 with St. Mary’s capturing a 67-64 win as a three-point road underdog. Simpson was the catalyst for the Gaels with 20 points and 15 boards. San Diego State’s Tim Shelton had 17 points and 10 rebounds in the losing effort.
--These west-coast schools have met in five straight seasons with the Gaels posting a 4-1 SU record to go with a 3-1-1 ATS mark.
--The ‘under’ has been dynamite for San Diego St. all year long, especially in its home games. The Aztecs have seen the ‘under’ go 21-8 overall, 14-2 in their home assignments.
--Although the ‘over’ has cashed in each of its last three games, St. Mary’s has seen the ‘under’ go 15-14 overall.
--The Gaels are 2-1 ATS in three games as underdogs.
--Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--If Stephen Curry decides to return for his senior season at Davidson, the Wildcats should be able to get back to the NCAA Tournament. Bob McKillop’s team loses a pair of seniors in Andrew Lovedale and Max Paulhus Gosselin, but solid role players like William Archambault, Bryant Barr, Stephen Rossiter, Ben Allison and Brendan McKillop will be back.
--The coaching carousel is about to get going quickly. There are currently three high-profile jobs available at Virginia, Alabama and Georgia. Tubby Smith has apparently taken himself out of the mix with public statements Monday indicating that he is “very happy” at Minnesota. Oklahoma’s Jeff Capel and Missouri’s Mike Anderson are believed to be candidates at both UGA and ‘Bama, but the guess here is that both will leverage that fact to get more money and stay put. That probably leaves VCU’s Anthony Grant as the top candidate for both UGA and ‘Bama, although Miami’s Frank Haith might also be in the mix. Now here’s the key – what’s going to happen with Gillispie at UK? If he gets fired, the dominoes will quickly fall. Would the ‘Cats make another run at UF’s Billy Donovan? If they do and are successful, then Grant would be UF’s top choice (and vice versa). Perhaps UK would prefer Villanova’s Jay Wright or Memphis’ John Calipari? It’s debatable whether either coach would leave their current post for the pressure cooker of Lexington. If ‘Bama or UGA hires Haith before Grant makes a move, then the UM job is in play for the VCU coach who grew up in South Florida and is a recruiting force in the area. Clemson’s Oliver Purnell is another name that has been linked to the jobs at Georgia and Alabama.
--By all indications, UVA’s first choice is/was Tubby. Assuming Smith is true to his word, where do the Cavs turn next? In my opinion, their best realistic option is Xavier’s Sean Miller. (And they might not be able to get Miller.)
--Seth Curry has decided to transfer after averaging better than 20 PPG as a freshman at Liberty. Seriously, how long is the line going to be for this guy? I just hope my Gators are under consideration. (Did Seth Greenberg really pass on giving a scholarship to another son of Va. Tech great Dell Curry? I find that astounding.)
--If you missed my “official” statement on the Power Hours 2-3 weeks back, then I’ll let you know now that someone has replaced Kobe as my least-favorite athlete. That would be A-Roids, who was already top-five material. For me, the final straw was when the pictures were released of A-Fraud posing shirtless while kissing a mirror.
--Here’s my updated top-five chafes in sports:
1-Alex Rodriguez
2-Kobe Bryant
3-Roger Clemens
4-Stephon Marbury
5-Any player wearing a Duke basketball uniform.
vegasinsider.com
KENTUCKY (22 - 13) at NOTRE DAME (20 - 14)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
ST MARYS-CA (28 - 6) at SAN DIEGO ST (25 - 9)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ST MARYS-CA is 2-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
ST MARYS-CA is 2-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
UTEP (21 - 12) at RICHMOND (20 - 15)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
STANFORD (20 - 13) at OREGON ST (15 - 17)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
STANFORD is 4-3 against the spread versus OREGON ST over the last 3 seasons
STANFORD is 5-2 straight up against OREGON ST over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PACIFIC (21 - 12) at BRADLEY (20 - 14)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
JAMES MADISON (21 - 14) at OLD DOMINION (23 - 10)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
OLD DOMINION is 3-3 against the spread versus JAMES MADISON over the last 3 seasons
OLD DOMINION is 4-2 straight up against JAMES MADISON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY vs. NOTRE DAME
Kentucky is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kentucky's last 5 games
Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kentucky
Notre Dame is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kentucky
TEXAS EL PASO vs. RICHMOND
Texas El Paso is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Texas El Paso is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Richmond is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Richmond is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
PACIFIC vs. BRADLEY
Pacific is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Pacific is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Bradley is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Bradley's last 6 games at home
SAINT MARY'S vs. SAN DIEGO STATE
Saint Mary's is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Diego State
Saint Mary's is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego State
San Diego State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
San Diego State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
STANFORD vs. OREGON STATE
Stanford is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games when playing Oregon State
Stanford is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games when playing Oregon State
Oregon State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oregon State's last 8 games at home
NCAAB Today
Wednesday, March 25
Kentucky is 1-1 vs Big East teams, losing 74-71 at Louisville, winning in Vegas against West Virginia, 54-43; Wildcats had lost five of their last six before the NIT, beat UNLV by 10, won at Creighton 65-63 to get one game from NYC, where Notre Dame played in the Big East tourney two weeks ago. Irish won four of their last five home games. Kentucky is 2-4 in its last six road games, winning at Arkansas, Creighton.
St Mary's (-2.5) beat San Diego State 67-64 Dec 13; Aztecs were 4-12 on foul line that day, but held Mills to 6-19 from floor, 1-8 from arc in game Gaels led 37-31 at half. Just like Kentucky, St Mary's has one day between games and has to travel, while host hasn't played since beating K-State Friday. Aztecs are 13-1 in last 14 home games, losing game they led by 13 at the half against BYU.
Texas-El Paso beat James Madison of CAA 79-66 on neutral floor back in November; they've also won three of last four road games. Richmond won five of last six home games, losing to GW right before they upset Xavier; Spiders waxed Rice of C-USA 74-43 on Jan 3 (led 37-17 at half). Richmond shot 54% with only nine turnovers in win over Charleston. Miners outscored Northeastern 14-1 at line in 75-66 home win Monday.
Oregon State is 2-1 vs Stanford this year, upsetting Cardinal 77-62 (+16) Jan 24, then 66-54 (+2.5) here Feb 19, before Stanford won 62-54 (-6) in Pac-10 tourney two weeks ago; Beavers led all three games at half by 6- 12-7 points. Cardinal's win at Wichita Monday was their second in last 10 road games. Oregon State had lost four in row before NIT, is trying to get to NYC to end a season they started playing Howard in Wash, DC.
Bradley needed 70-footer at buzzer Monday to get here; Braves are 5-0 in last five home games, 0-3 vs spread in last three. Pacific is out of PST for first time this season; they've won seven of last eight games, losing in OT to Northridge in the Big West final. Tigers covered three of last four tries as underdog. Bradley won four of its last five games overall, is 8-5 outside MVC. Pacific is 9-5 in its non-Big West contests.
Road team won both James Madison-Old Dominion games, with Dukes (+9.5) winning 70-62 at ODU Jan 7, then losing 80-74 at home (-1) Jan 28-- JMU was 13-29 from arc in the two games. JMU had lost four in a row before NIT, then beat low majors Mt St Mary's, Liberty to get here. Monarchs won seven of last eight gams, beating Citadel, Belmont in its first two tourney games. OSU held Belmont to 12-38 from arc Monday.
NIT/CBI/CIT Research
By Indiancowboy
Kentucky vs. Notre Dame
Kentucky hits the road to play Notre Dame as a small dog. This was the same price they faced when they faced Creighton and won by 2 on the road. They won their first round contest by 10 against UNLV at home. Notre Dame beat New Mexico by 2 who is a top 30 team and defeated UAB by 6 who is a top 50 team and they face a Kentucky team who is also top 50. Kentucky doesn't necessarily light up the scoreboard and ND vs. UAB totaled at 134 and ND vs. NM totaled at 138 so I wouldn't be surprised to see this game dip under.
UTEP vs. Richmond
Give UTEP some credit as they are still rolling along. They defeated Nevada on the road by 2 and Northeastern at home by 7. This team is a top 85 team in the average of power rankings so they beat a top 100 team in Nevada on the road and just defeated a good top 75 Northeastern team at home by 9. Now, they have to go on the road to play a Spider team who is top 120. UTEP shoots 72.2% in free throws, the public favors Richmond to about 2/3rds here. Richmond is a good team that has defeated St. Johns at home by 6 and College of Charleston at home by a bucket as well. Richmond shoots about 67.5% from the line. UTEP beat New Mexico, Nevada and Houston on the road so I wouldn't be shocked to see them win here as well.
Bradley vs. Pacific
Bradley is a top 130 team that faces a Pacific team who is top 110. Bradley beat a top 200 team in Austin Peay at home by 7 and a good Oakland team at home by 1 who is a top 100 team. Bradley is laying about 5 here at home. Pacific is a good looking team that beat CS Northridge on the road and ended up losing to them in OT or they would have gone dancing themselves. Pacific is similar to Oakland and Oakland lost by 1 to this team so I wouldn't be surprised if they hang within that number here today. I can see this either way.
Stanford vs. Oregon State
You would think these teams would have faced each other enough. Stanford lost to this team twice during the regular season by 14 at home and 12 on the road. Then, Stanford got their revenge during the conference tournament by winning by 8 on neutral footing. Now, Stanford, who comes off a big win against Wichita State by 14, and who beat Boise State at home by 20 faces Oregon State on the road. Stanford is heavily backed by the public coming into this game, but Oregon State just beat Houston and Vermont to get to where they are. I can see this both was as Oregon State is at home and has revenge from their most recent loss to this team in the conference tourney, but Stanford is playing good basketball right now.
NIT Tournament Quarterfinals
KENTUCKY at NOTRE DAME
KENTUCKY: 43-24 ATS after a win by 6 points or less
NOTRE DAME: 7-0 Under in March
ST MARYS-CA at SAN DIEGO ST
ST MARYS-CA: 0-6 ATS when the total is 120 to 129.5
SAN DIEGO ST: 14-7 ATS as a favorite
CBI Tournament Semifinals
UTEP at RICHMOND
UTEP: 10-3 ATS vs. non-conference
RICHMOND: 34-56 ATS off BB SU wins
STANFORD at OREGON ST
STANFORD: 14-7 ATS as favorite
OREGON ST: 13-25 ATS vs. conference
College Insider Tournament Semifinals
PACIFIC at BRADLEY
PACIFIC: 6-16 ATS off BB SU wins
BRADLEY: 7-0 ATS off win by 3pts or less