College Hoops Double
By Judd Hall
The final games before a conference tournament normally give teams that have practically assured themselves a spot in the Big Dance a little break. Some programs in that spot will use those finales as a chance to learn to live life without its star player. We’ll see a little of both things happening on Wednesday night.
Indiana at Purdue – 6:30 p.m. EST, Big Ten Network
It hasn’t been easy for Indiana (9-19 straight up, 10-15 against the spread) this season. The Hoosiers already knew they were going to have a tough go of it for postseason play. But Tom Crean’s crew is in an even worse funk than they’re used to, losing 10 straight games and failing to cover the number in eight of them.
Purdue (24-4 SU, 12-14-1 ATS) is feeling a little deflated right now after losing Robbie Hummel for the rest of the season with a torn right ACL. This was a team that seemed destined for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Are the still up for that honor? Sure, but it’s going to take a lot more work. The first game for life without Hummel was a disaster as the Boilermakers fell 53-44 as four-point home favorites to Michigan State.
The Boilermakers had nothing going for them last Sunday. They shot just 30 percent from the field, made two of their nine three-point shots and were outrebounded 44-16 by the Spartans.
Even with the loss of Hummel, Purdue has been listed as a heavy 16-point home “chalk” by Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Luckily for Purdue, this game might help them stretch out the legs of the rest of the team. The Boilermakers are 3-1 SU in their last four meetings with Indiana. The Hoosiers have been the best friend of the bettors in those tilts with a 3-1 ATS mark.
Matt Painter’s program is just 6-10 ATS in conference play this season. Indiana has posted the same 6-10 ATS record, but have failed to cover in seven straight contests.
The Hoosiers have just one outright win on the road in eight chances, covering the number twice.
Oklahoma State at Texas A&M – 9:00 p.m. EST, ESPN2
If Oklahoma State (20-8 SU, 13-8-1 ATS) had worries about making the NCAA Tournament, they were alleviated last Saturday in an 85-77 win over the then No. 1 Jayhawks as a six-point home pup. James Anderson led the way for the Cowboys in scoring 27 points, eight boards and three assists.
The ‘Pokes were able to hold Kansas to just 47 percent from the field, down from 49 percent they have shot all season to rank seventh in field goal percentage. Oklahoma State was also able to make headway in this tilt thanks to shooting 53 percent from beyond the arc.
Texas A&M (19-8 SU, 16-8 ATS) is the latest team to take a turn at kicking the Longhorns while they’re down. The Aggies easily covered as 1 ½-point home favorites against Texas in a 74-58 decision. A&M held Texas to just 37 percent from the field and nailed seven of its 12 shots from three-point land.
Gamblers backing the Aggies have been rewarded handsomely all season long, but they’ve won eight straight ATS. And if you look at their home games, they’ve covered the spread in six of the last eight.
LVSC has installed Texas A&M as a 5 ½-point home favorite.
Bettors should know that the Aggies have been great home faves, evidenced by a 10-0 SU and 6-4 ATS record. The ‘under’ went 6-3 in the nine games where they had a total posted.
While Oklahoma State has had a great season, they are just 2-5 SU and ATS when posted as a road underdog. The ‘under’ is mildly successful at 4-3 in those battles.
This head-to-head matchup has been recently slanted towards the home club as they’re on a 3-0 SU and ATS run. However, the Cowboys have enjoyed a 4-2 SU and ATS record in their last six game against A&M. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in those games. In fact, the ‘under’ has gone 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these programs.
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Game of the day: Kansas State at Kansas
By Sean Murphy
The top two teams in the Big 12 will go head-to-head Wednesday, with a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament quite possibly hanging in the balance.
This will be the second meeting between these two in-state rivals this season. Kansas took the first in an 81-79 overtime thriller.
History lesson
Kansas has beaten up on its weaker sibling in recent years, taking eight of the last nine matchups with six of those games covering the spread. Kansas State did cover the number as a 3.5-point underdog in their first meeting this season.
The last two times these two have hooked up at Allen Fieldhouse it’s been no contest with the Jayhawks winning by 14- and 16-point margins. Kansas State hasn’t won on this floor since January of 2006.
No. 1 seed in doubt?
Kansas has arguably been the best team in the nation for much of the season, certainly the best the Big 12 has to offer. But the Jayhawks have hit a few speed bumps in recent weeks.
The Jayhawks lost for the first time in conference play Saturday and it wasn’t close as Oklahoma State jumped ahead by 16 points before halftime and never looked back.
Their backers have reason to be concerned. Kansas has covered the spread just once in its last nine games, falling to 10-15-1 ATS in lined contests this season.
Head coach Bill Self isn’t ready to push the panic button just yet.
“I don’t think the thing is broken,” Self told reporters. “But I do think we need to really evaluate the things we take great pride in to be a good team, especially this time of year.”
Home dominance
The Jayhawks haven’t lost at home since December 13th, 2008. Oddly enough, that loss came against an Atlantic 10 team, Massachusetts.
To find their last home loss in Big 12 play, you would have to go all the way back to February 2007. That was when they fell 69-66 as 5-point favorites against Texas A&M.
Kansas has posted a perfect 17-0 record at Allen Fieldhouse this season, but is just 6-8 ATS in lined games as the host.
The Jayhawks’ defensive play has been second to none at home, as they’ve held opponents to just over 62 points per game on 36.5 percent shooting.
Clawing their way back
There weren’t too many Wildcat believers back in January, as Kansas State started Big 12 play with three losses in its first seven games.
Since then, KSU has reeled off seven straight victories, most recently avenging a conference-opening loss to Missouri last Saturday. Kansas State missed 19 consecutive shots at one point, but still managed to pull out a 10-point victory to improve to 11-3 in Big 12 play.
Wildcats coach Frank Martin believes his team is battle-tested entering Wednesday’s showdown.
"That was a drag-it-out fight right there and I was proud of our guys," Martin told the media. "A game like (this) shows we've come a long ways. These types of games where we don't make shots once took our spirit away."
Defense first
Kansas State’s defense has played a major role in its turnaround this season.
The Wildcats are allowing 68 points per game but have tightened things up lately, giving up just over 64 points a night over their last five contests. Only two of their last seven opponents have scored more than 68 points.
Jacob Pullen may be the offensive sparkplug, but he was quick to praise his team’s defensive play following Saturday’s win.
"As a team we did a great job of not bailing out on our defense," he said. "Usually when a team is not shooting the ball well, they mellow out on defense. Our team did a great job of realizing our defense was the only way to keep us in it."
Pullen is averaging an impressive 18.5 ppg and 3.8 assists per game this season.
Trends to note
Since starting the season 1-2 ATS, the Wildcats have gone 15-4-1 ATS over their last 20 lined games.
They’ve been listed as the underdog in each of the last 23 meetings in this series and have gone 6-17 ATS over that period.
Kansas owns a tremendous 22-9-1 ATS record in its last 32 games against opponents that own a winning percentage of at least .600.
However, the Jayhawks are just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 home games against opponents that sport a winning road record.
(20) Temple (24-5, 18-11 ATS) at Saint Louis (19-9, 14-8-1 ATS)
Two of the hottest teams in the Atlantic 10 get together when the Owls make the trip to Chaifetz Arena to face Saint Louis.
Temple has won five in a row and seven of its last eight, going 6-2 ATS in that stretch, and it leads the A-10 with a 12-2 SU mark (9-5 ATS). On Sunday at LaSalle, the Owls rolled 65-53 as a 7½-point favorite. Temple isn’t an offensive powerhouse, averaging 65.5 ppg on 42.9 percent shooting, but the Owls are quite effective on defense, ranking sixth nationally in points allowed (57.0 ppg), ninth in field-goal defense (37.9 percent shooting) and fifth in three-point defense (28.1 percent).
Saint Louis has also won seven of its last eight, cashing in the last seven in a row to move up to fourth in the A-10. The Billikens lost to Xavier 73-71 as a 4½-point home pup last Wednesday, then bounced back to beat Duquesne 69-59 Saturday as a 4½-point home chalk. Rick Majerus’ troops are outscoring visitors by more than 10 ppg on the year (67.8-57.7), shooting 46.7 percent at home and allowing just 38.9 percent.
Temple is 3-1 SU and ATS in four meetings since Saint Louis joined the A-10 in the 2005-06 season, with the Owls’ victories coming in the last three clashes. Last year, Temple rolled 65-40 at home as an 11½-point favorite, and two years ago in the Gateway City, the Owls snuck out with a 54-53 overtime win as a one-point underdog. The SU winner cashed in all four contests, and the favorite is 3-1 ATS in those games.
The Owls are on ATS rolls of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on Wednesday, 36-14-1 in the A-10 and 36-17-1 against winning teams, but they’ve gone just 2-5 ATS in their last seven on the highway. Meanwhile, along with their current 7-0 ATS run, the Billikens are on pointspread sprees of 6-0 after a SU win, 16-5 after a spread cover, 4-0 at home, 4-0 against winning teams and 21-6 in conference play.
Temple is on “over” streaks of 4-1 on the road, 4-1 on Wednesday, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 5-2 after a SU win, and the over for Saint Louis is on runs of 13-4 on Wednesday and 15-6 at Chaifetz Arena. In this rivalry, though, the under his hit in three of four meetings, including the last two in a row.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAINT LOUIS and OVER
(5) Kansas State (24-4, 16-6-1 ATS) at (2) Kansas (27-2, 10-15-1 ATS)
The Jayhawks, who have already wrapped a share of their sixth straight Big 12 regular-season crown, brace for surging Kansas State as this in-state rivalry resumes at Allen Fieldhouse.
Kansas won its first 14 games of the season, stubbed its toe at Tennessee, then plowed through its first 13 conference contests before coming up short at Oklahoma State on Saturday in an 85-77 setback as a six-point favorite. The Jayhawks rank in the Top 10 nationally in scoring (82.4 ppg, fourth), field-goal shooting (48.9 percent shooting, ninth), and three-point shooting (40 percent, ninth). Defensively, Bill Self’s squad allows just 63.9 ppg on 37.6 percent shooting (fourth).
Kansas has won 58 consecutive games at Allen Fieldhouse, the longest active home winning streak in the nation. This year, the Jayhawks are 17-0 in Lawrence, averaging 87.1 ppg on exactly 50 percent shooting (41.5 percent from three-point land), while yielding 62.1 ppg on 36.5 percent shooting.
Kansas State has peeled off seven straight wins, all in the Big 12, since dropping an 81-79 overtime thriller to Kansas as a 3½-point home pup on Jan. 30. The second-place Wildcats have won six straight Big 12 road games (4-1-1 ATS) and are coming off Saturday’s 63-53 home win over Missouri laying 6½-points Saturday. K-State is also explosive offensively, averaging 80.4 ppg (ninth) while allowing 68.0. On the road, the Wildcats actually average a shade more at 80.9 ppg, while giving up 71.6.
K-State’s last-second spread-cover a few weeks back ended a 3-0 SU and ATS run by Kansas in this rivalry. Still, the Jayhawks are 17-6 ATS in the last 23 contests (all as the favorite), and the home team is on a 4-1 ATS uptick.
The Jayhawks sport positive ATS streaks of 5-0-1 after a SU loss, 18-7-2 on Wednesday and 22-9-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, but they also own ATS slides of 0-5 overall (all in the Big 12), 0-4 at home and 9-19 at home against teams with a winning road record. The Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight Wednesday starts, but are otherwise on ATS upswings of 15-5-1 overall, 4-1 after a SU win, 11-4-1 after a spread-cover, 4-1 in the Big 12 and 13-4-1 against winning teams.
The over for Kansas is on runs of 5-0 after a SU loss and 5-0 against winning teams, and the over for K-State is on stretches of 5-0 against winning teams, 5-0 on Wednesday and 7-3-1 on the road. Also, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in the last five clashes. However, the under is 3-1-1 in the Wildcats’ last five outings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS and OVER
(4) Duke (25-4, 17-9-2 ATS) at (22) Maryland (21-7, 15-9 ATS)
The Blue Devils aim to hold off Maryland for first place in the ACC when these longtime rivals clash at the Comcast Center.
Duke has won its last eight games (4-2-2 ATS), six of them by double digits, to put itself in position for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. On Sunday at Virginia, the Blue Devils rolled 67-49 as a 9½-point chalk, winning their 10th straight ACC game while ending an 0-1-2 ATS hiccup. Duke is outscoring its opponents by more than 17 ppg on average (79.2-61.7) and has the nation’s No. 1 three-point defense (26.7 percent shooting allowed). On the road, though, the Devils average just a bucket more than their foes (69.4-67.6).
Maryland is on a five-game winning streak (4-1) ATS and has won seven of its last eight, all in the ACC. The Terrapins needed double overtime to knock off Virginia on Saturday and keep their surge going, notching a 104-100 victory as a 1½-point road underdog. Maryland is averaging 80.0 ppg (12th) while holding opponents to 67.2 ppg on 38 percent shooting (11th), and at home, the Terps are outscoring visitors by more than 20 ppg (84.3-63.5) while boasting a shooting edge of 50.3 percent to 37.5 percent.
Duke is 12-2 SU (9-3-2 ATS) in the ACC, and Maryland is 11-3 SU and ATS.
Last month, Duke rolled to a 77-56 home victory laying 9½ points against Maryland for its sixth consecutive win in this rivalry (4-1-1 ATS, all as a favorite), including SU and ATS victories on its last two trips to College Park. The SU winner is 12-1-1 ATS in the last 13 clashes.
The Blue Devils are on pointspread runs of 3-1-2 overall, 3-0-2 in the ACC, 4-1-1 on Wednesday and 9-4-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600. The Terps are on ATS tears of 12-3 overall, 6-1 at home, 4-1 against winning teams, 20-7 in the ACC, 8-3 after a SU win, 7-3 after a spread-cover and 37-12-2 on Wednesday.
Duke is on a bundle of “under” streaks, including 6-1 overall, 5-0 against winning teams, 27-10 in the ACC, 6-1 after a SU win, 24-11 after a spread-cover and 12-5 on Wednesday. The under for Maryland is on surges of 5-0 against winning teams and 26-9 on Wednesday, and in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five consecutive meetings. However, Maryland is on “over” runs of 4-1 overall (all in the ACC), 15-5-1 in College Park and 4-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARYLAND
Oklahoma State (20-8, 13-8-1 ATS) at (23) Texas A&M (20-8, 16-8 ATS)
The Cowboys, coming off their giant-killing win over Kansas, will try to avoid the letdown as they head to College Station’s Reed Arena for a big 12 battle with Texas A&M.
Oklahoma State has followed an 0-3 SU and ATS slide by winning four of its last five SU and ATS, all in the Big 12, and none bigger than Saturday’s 85-77 victory over the top-ranked Jayhawks as a six-point home pup. During their current surge, the Cowboys are averaging 78.4 ppg on 49.3 percent shooting, while giving up 72.2 ppg on 41.4 percent shooting. However, on the road this year, the Pokes have been outscored by an average of about seven ppg (75.4-68.7), shooting just 39.9 percent. Oklahoma State is 2-5 SU and ATS in Big 12 roadies, with the winner covering the spread in all seven games.
Texas A&M has followed a 4-0 SU and ATS run by alternating SU wins and losses over its last four games, though the Aggies cashed in all eight contests. On Saturday, they hammered Texas 74-58 as a one-point home favorite. In College Station this season, A&M is 13-1 SU and 7-4 ATS in lined action, averaging 73.6 ppg on 45.2 percent shooting, while giving up just 58.9 ppg on 39.8 percent shooting. The Aggies are 6-1 (5-2 ATS) when hosting conference rivals, the only loss coming to then-No. 1 Kansas (59-54, cashing as a 6½-point underdog)
The Aggies’ four games prior to the Texas contest (three on the road, one at home) were all decided by four points or less.
Oklahoma State is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings in this rivalry, including a 76-69 win as a 5½-point home favorite on Jan. 27. In fact, the Cowboys are the last team to cover the spread against A&M. The road team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 clashes, the Cowboys have cashed in six of their last eight trips to College Station, the favorite is on a 4-1 ATS roll and the SU winner has cashed in eight straight meetings.
The Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last eight roadies, but they sport positive pointspread streaks of 24-9-1 overall, 4-1 in the Big 12, 4-1 against winning teams, 16-6 after a spread-cover and 18-7-1 following a SU win. Along with their current 8-0 ATS surge, the Aggies are on spread-covering sprees of 37-18 overall, 4-0 at home, 5-0 after a SU win, 7-0 against winning teams, 20-7 in the Big 12 and 9-4 on Wednesday.
Oklahoma State is on “under” runs of 8-1 against winning teams, 9-3 after a SU win and 7-3 following a spread-cover, and A&M is on “under” tears of 5-0 overall (all in the Big 12), 7-2 at home and 7-1 against teams above .500. Finally, these teams topped the total in their meeting earlier this season, ending an 8-0 “under” run in this rivalry, with the last five in a row in College Station staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Wednesday's Wagers
By Brian Edwards
Bettors have to be salivating over tonight’s stacked college basketball card. Kansas will put its 58-game home winning streak on the line against Kansas St. just a few days after suffering just its second loss of the season.
The ACC regular-season title will be on the line when Maryland plays host to Duke on Senior Night for Greivis Vasquez and the Terrapins. Also, this space is warning the Big Blue Nation that Kentucky is on big-time upset alert in Athens tonight. Let’s look at these three games and more.
**Kansas State at Kansas**
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Kansas (straight up, against the spread) as a 10-point favorite. As of early this morning, most books had the Jayhawks listed as 9 ½-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 149 1/2.
Kansas St. (24-4 SU, 16-6-1 ATS) hasn’t tasted defeat since Jan. 30 when Kansas came into Manhattan and won 81-79 in overtime. The Wildcats came up short of the outright win, but they took the cash as 3 ½-point home underdogs. The 160 combined points went ‘over’ the 152 ½-point total thanks to the extra session.
Since losing to KU, Frank Martin’s team has won seven in a row while going 5-2 ATS. The Wildcats beat Missouri 63-53 Saturday night as 6 ½-point home favorites. Curtis Kelly was the catalyst, stuffing the stat sheet with 10 points, 10 rebounds, four assists, three blocked shots and a pair of steals. The 116 combined points resulted in an easy winner for ‘under’ backers.
For our purposes, Bill Self’s team has been a catastrophe recently. KU has failed to cover the number in five consecutive games and eight of its last nine. The Jayhawks’ perfect record in Big 12 play is no longer following Saturday’s 85-77 loss at Oklahoma St. as six-point road ‘chalk.’ The 162 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 145-point total.
Kansas senior guard Sherron Collins scored a team-high 22 points and also had four rebounds and four assists in the losing effort at OSU. Xavier Henry added 17 points.
KU is unbeaten in 17 home games, but it is a mediocre 6-8 ATS in Allen Fieldhouse. The Jayhawks are 2-4 ATS as single-digit ‘chalk’ but if this line stays at 9 ½ or less, they will be single-digit home favorite for the first time this year.
K-St. has one of the nation’s premier backcourts with senior Denis Clemente, a transfer from Miami, and junior Jacob Pullen. Clemente averages 15.8 points and 4.1 assists per game, while Pullen is tallying 18.5 points and 3.8 assists per contest.
K-St. is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in four games as an underdog this year.
The ‘under’ is 14-11 overall for Kansas, 7-6 in its home games.
The ‘over’ is 12-9-1 overall for Kansas St.
Tip-off is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern and will be televised as a part of ESPN’s Full-Court Package.
**Kentucky at Georgia**
LVSC opened Kentucky (27-2 SU, 15-12 ATS) as a 7 ½-point favorite. As of early this morning, most spots had UK as an eight-point favorite with a total of 141 ½.
Georgia (13-14 SU, 16-10 ATS) has been cashing tickets at a frenetic pace for more than two months now. The Dawgs, who are 15-4 ATS since Dec. 19, are coming off Saturday’s 78-76 win over Florida as two-point home underdogs. Trey Thompkins led the way with 20 points, seven rebounds and five assists.
Mark Fox’s squad has been a home underdog five times this season, compiling a 4-1 SU record and a perfect 5-0 ATS mark. And if you want to count a game against Illinois at the Gwinnett Center less than an hour from Athens, then those numbers would 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS.
When these schools met at Rupp Arena back on Jan. 9, Kentucky rallied to collect a 76-68 victory. However, UGA easily took the money as a 20-point underdog. The Dawgs, who led 35-34 at halftime, couldn’t overcome 26 turnovers. Thompkins had 17 points and 13 rebounds in the losing effort, while Travis Leslie had 20 points, six boards and two blocked shots. For the winners, John Wall and Patrick Patterson finished with 17 points apiece.
I’ve been calling for an outright upset in this spot for two weeks now. John Calipari apparently doesn’t think the notion is a stretch, either. He told the media earlier this week, “We could go to Georgia and lose. They're beating everybody down there." Look for bettors to be able to get at least a plus-260 return on money-line wagers (risk $100 to win $260).
UGA is 12-3 SU and 10-4 ATS at home in Stegeman Coliseum this year. The Dawgs are unbeaten against SEC East foes with a chance to sweep the division by beating UK. They also have home win over Ga. Tech and Saint Louis.
Kentucky saw its eight-game winning streak snapped in Saturday 74-65 loss at Tennessee as a 2 ½-point road favorite. Wall had 19 points, six assists and five rebounds, but he also committed five turnovers and was just 6-of-16 from the floor. DeMarcus Cousins had 15 points and 14 boards.
The ‘over’ is on a lucrative 12-4 roll for Georgia. The ‘over’ is 16-7 overall for UGA, 7-5 in its home assignments.
The ‘under’ has cashed in three consecutive UK games and five of its last six. Nevertheless, totals have been an overall wash (13-13) for the ‘Cats this year.
Tip-off is slated for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on The SEC Network.
**Duke at Maryland**
LVSC opened Maryland (21-7 SU, 15-9 ATS) as a 1 ½-point favorite. However, as of early this morning, most betting shops had the Blue Devils favored by one with a total of 148.
Since losing at Georgetown on Jan. 30, Duke (25-4 SU, 17-9-2 ATS) has won eight straight games with six of those triumphs coming by double-digit margins. The Blue Devils are coming off Sunday’s 67-49 win at Virginia as 9 ½-point road favorites. Kyle Singler had 21 points and Jon Scheyer added 20 and five steals.
Gary Williams’ team has won five in a row, including Saturday night’s 104-100 double-overtime win at Virginia Tech as a 1 ½-point underdog. Vasquez scored 41 points, grabbed seven rebounds and dished out six assists. Eric Hayes added 12 points and 10 assists.
When these clubs met in Durham at Cameron Indoor Stadium back on Feb. 13, Mike Krzyzewski’s captured a 77-56 win as a 9 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ Scheyer scored a game-high 22 points, while Brian Zoubek finished with 16 points and 17 rebounds.
The ‘under’ has cashed in five consecutive head-to-head meetings between these ACC adversaries.
The ‘over’ is 14-7-1 overall for Maryland and 8-2 in its home outings.
The ‘under’ is on a 6-1 roll for Duke in its last seven games. The Blue Devils have watched the ‘under’ go 16-12 overall for the season.
ESPN will have the telecast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Alabama sophomore power forward JaMychal Green has been suspended for a violation of team rules by head coach Anthony Grant. He will miss tonight’s game at South Carolina and could be out even longer. LVSC opened the Gamecocks as 2 ½-point home favorites, but then took the game off the board. Sometime later this morning, bettors can probably look for the Gamecocks to be favored by at least four, possibly more. ESPNU will provide television coverage at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
Wednesday’s Biggest Bubble Losers
1-Minnesota (83-55 at Michigan)
2-Cincinnati (77-73 vs. Villanova)
3-Illinois (73-57 at Ohio St.)
4-Louisville (69-48 at Marquette)
5-Florida (64-60 vs. Vandy)
I think Florida and Louisville are both still comfortably in despite last night’s losses. I think Minnesota and Cincy are completely toast unless they find a way to win their regular-season finales and get to the finals of their respective conference tournaments (and watch other bubble teams fall apart). In other words, the Gophers and Bearcats are NIT-bound. The Illini are still on the fence.
Trailing 62-60 in the waning moments last night, UF junior Chandler Parsons found Kenny Boynton for a wide-open look at a trey from the right wing. Once again, the Gators had a great look at winning time, but this time Boynton’s 3-point attempt was off the mark, allowing the Commodores to escape the O-Dome with a victory.
I think Vandy is looking like a No. 3 seed. There’s a lot to like about this team, starting with head coach Kevin Stallings, who is one of the college game’s premier tacticians. Another thing is this squad’s size. The ‘Dores have a bunch of big boys and I’m not just talking about the team’s “bigs.” They have size all over the court, including at the guard position. Remember Vandy’s last trip to the Sweet 16 when it lost a nail-biter to Georgetown? Jeff Green still walked not just once – but TWICE! – before making his game-winning bucket just before the buzzer.
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NCAAB News and Notes
Wednesday, March 3
Information on the best of Wednesday's college basketball games.
Memphis clinched bye in C-USA tourney when Marshall lost last night; UAB looking for respect after getting no votes for top 25 despite a 23-5 record. Blazers (+7.5) lost 85-75 at Memphis Feb 3, turning ball over 19 times, getting nine shots blocked. UAB won its last four games (3-0-1 vs spread). Memphis split last four on road, losing at Houston/SMU.
South Carolina lost last five games, took some serious grief from Horn in Tuesday press conference; Alabama's 2nd-leading scorer is suspended for this- another regular was suspended last game. Crimson Tide is 1-7 in last eight games; they're 2-2-1 as SEC road dog, losing away games by 1-12-7-11-6-8 points. Gamecocks are 1-2 as an SEC favorite.
Rhode Island/Charlotte both lost four of last five games; Rams are 2-5 as A-14 home fave, with home wins by 27-8-6-8-26 points- they're 2-3 in last five games vs Charlotte, splitting last two played here. 49ers are 2-3 as A-14 road underdog, losing away games by 12-28-5 points (4-3 SU). A-14 home favorites of less than 8 points are 12-28 against the spread.
UConn shot 50% from floor, outscored Notre Dame 19-6 from foul line in 82-70 win over Irish Jan 2 (-7); Huskies won three of last four games, are 2-5 on Big East road, beating Villanova/Rutgers in last two games on foreign soil. ND won last two games; they're 5-2 vs spread in last seven games, 6-2 at home in league. Harangody expected to miss Senior Nite.
Underdog covered seven of last eight Arkansas-Tennessee games; Hogs lost two of last three visits here, and last three games overall by 9-11-17 points. Hogs are 4-2 as SEC road underdog, losing away games by 2-31-5-9-11 points. Vols are off Kentucky upset; they're 2-4 as SEC favorite at home, winning in Knoxville by 26-2-1-26-9-9 points.
Floroda State won three of last four games; they're 1-6 as ACC favorite at home, winning by 5-2-6-15 points (4-3 SU). Wake Forest lost its last three games by 4-14-9 points, but they won three of last four vs Florida State- last six series games were won by 8+ points. ACC home favorites of between 4-9.5 points are 20-24 against the spread.
Saint Louis won seven of last eight games, covering last seven, with only loss in span by hoop to Xavier; Billikens are 4-0 as home underdog this season, winning six of seven A-14 home games SU- they covered six in a row as an underdog overall. Temple won its last five games, winning last three on road by 18-8-12. A-14 home dogs of less than 5 points are 4-9.
Kansas (-4) won 81-79 in OT at K-State Jan 20, making half their shots from floor, outscoring Wildcats 22-13 on foul line. Jayhawks are 2-5 as Big 12 home favorite, winning home games by 26-6-19-11-14-20-13 pts. K-State is 7-0 since first meeting; they're 3-1 as underdog this year with Big 12 losses by 6-4-2 points. Big 12 single digit home faves: 25-16.
Auburn (+10) lost by 10 in OT in Starkville Feb 13, after leading by 3 at half; Tigers shot just 37% for game, 9-33 from arc- they're 6-1-1 against spread in last eight games, winning last four home games by 1-19-9-15 points. Mississippi State won last three games, allowing 63.7 ppg; they are 3-1-1 against the spread in last five games as a favorite.
Georgia is 11-3 vs spread in SEC games, 4-0 as home dog- they're 5-2 at home in SEC play, with both losses by four points. Dawgs (+20) lost at Kentucky 76-68 in SEC opener Jan 9, turning ball over 26 times in game where they led by point at the half. Wildcats' 8-game win streak ended in Knoxville Saturday- they're 3-3 vs spread as an SEC road favorite.
Health of BYU PG Fredette a key here; he played only 0:59 in second half of home loss to New Mexico Saturday. Cougars (-13.5) won 82-69 in first meeting with rival Utah, turning ball over six times (+10). Utah won three of last four games; they're 4-1-1 vs spread in last six. MWC home underdogs of 4+ points are 4-13 against the pointspread.
Senior Night for Vasquez should be emotional night for Maryland team that lost 77-56 (+9) at Cameron Feb 13; Terps are 4-0 since that loss, as Vasquez scored 41 in double OT win in Blacksburg Saturday. Maryland is 7-0 at home in ACC play this year. Duke won its last seven games, is 5-1 inlast six road games- they allowed 57.6 ppg in last five games.
Texas A&M (+5.5) lost 76-69 at Oklahoma State Jan 27; Aggies covered last nine games- they're 4-2 as Big 12 home favorite, winning at home by 11-3-4-15-7-16 points. Cowboys won four of last five games, are 1-3 as Big 12 road dog, losing away games by 5-13-15-7-10- they beat Kansas in last game. Big 12 home favorites of 6 or less points are 17-10.
Tips and Trends
Connecticut Huskies at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Huskies: Connecticut is looking for a similar result today as they had earlier this year when they beat Notre Dame by double digits. Connecticut had won 3 consecutive games SU before losing their latest game SU by 2 PTS. That SU loss ended a 22 game winning streak, and could provide costly for the Huskies. UCONN is fighting for their tournament lives, as they more than likely need to win SU their 2 remaining regular season games to make the NCAA Tournament. UCONN is 17-12 SU and 12-15 ATS this season. The Huskies are 3-8 SU and 6-5 ATS in both true road games and neutral court venues this season. UCONN is 6-2 ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Huskies are led by 4 players averaging double digits in PTS this season. Guards Jerome Dyson and Kemba Walker average 33.5 PPG combined this season for the Huskies. Walker has been especially hot of late, averaging nearly 24 PPG over his past 4 games. Depth continues to be an issue for UCONN, as they simply don't have other scoring options outside of their big 4.
Huskies are 10-4 ATS last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 11-5 last 16 road games.
Key Injuries - C Jonathan Mandeldove (academics) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 76 (SIDE of the Day)
Fighting Irish (-1, O/U 143): Notre Dame has won back to back games SU, both by double digits. Unfortunately spirits are still down around campus with the news that All-American F Luke Harangody is likely out for the rest of the season. The Fighting Irish are living up their nickname, as they are doing everything possible to make a last minute push into the NCAA Tournament. Notre Dame is 19-10 SU and 12-10-1 ATS on the season. The Fighting Irish are 16-3 SU and 7-6 ATS at home this season. Notre Dame is 3-5-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. Notre Dame has won 4 of their past 5 games ATS, all coming as the listed underdog. The Irish are averaging nearly 77 PPG since the beginning of February, a span of 7 games. The Irish players have taken turns carrying the offensive load with Harangody out. F Tim Abromaitis has been one of the top 3 point shooters in the nation this season, shooting nearly 49% for the season. He averages 17.4 PPG this season for the Irish. G Ben Hansbrough does it all for the Irish, averaging 12.5 PPG, 4.7 APG, and 4 RPG this season.
Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Over is 6-1 last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Key Injuries - F Luke Harangody (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 71
Duke Blue Devils at Maryland Terrapins
Blue Devils (-1, O/U 148): Duke continues to roll along in ACC play, as they've won 8 consecutive games SU entering tonight. Duke is an impressive 12-2 SU this season in a very tough ACC conference. The Blue Devils are 25-4 SU and ranked #4 in the nation. Winning games is nothing new to Duke, but the way in which they are winning this season is different. Duke is playing unbelievable defense, especially lately. Duke has held 5 of their past 6 opponents to 56 PTS or fewer, all in conference play. Duke is 9-4 SU and 7-5-1 ATS in both true road games and neutral court settings this season. The Blue Devis are 6-4-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. Duke has been the listed favorite in every game they've played this season. Today marks the smallest Duke has been favored by all season long. Duke is led by 3 players that average at least 17 PPG this season. Guards Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith, and F Kyle Singler combine to average 53 PPG for Duke this season. Duke is very disciplined, as they've had 7 games with less than 10 turnovers this season.
Duke is 11-4 ATS last 15 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 last 5 vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 72 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Terrapins: 2nd place in the ACC has been secured for Maryland, but they are clearly shooting for more. Maryland would like nothing more than to beat Duke considering they've lost the past 6 games SU to Duke. The Terrapins have won 5 consecutive games SU entering tonight, including an OT win at Virginia Tech in their last game. Maryland is 21-7 SU this season, with a #22 national ranking. The Terrapins have been flying under the radar all season long, as their 15-9 ATS record proves this season. Maryland is 14-1 SU and 8-4 ATS at home this season. The Terrapins are 4-3 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Today is the 1st time this season Maryland is the listed underdog at home. Maryland lost at Duke earlier this season SU by a season worst 21 PTS, scoring only 56 PTS in defeat. Maryland hasnt lost since, and can tie Duke for the ACC lead with a SU win on Senior Night. G Greivis Vasquez leads a group of starters that all average at least 9 PPG this season. Vasquez averages 19.5 PPG this season, and is coming off a career high 41 PTS in his last game.
Terrapins are 6-1 ATS last 7 home games.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Key Injuries - C Steve Goins (knee) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 70