Penn State battles Indiana Hoosiers
By: Brad Young
The Big Ten begins its conference tournament Thursday in Indianapolis, and is expecting six teams to advance to the NCAA Tournament. That is unless some teams play themselves into or out of the Big Dance the next couple of days.
Penn State (16-13 straight up, 13-10-2 against the spread) is one of those teams that can improve its positioning with a strong conference tournament. The Nittany Lions haven’t advanced to the NCAA Tournament since 2001, or the National Invitational Tournament since winning it in 2009.
Sixth-seed Penn State’s quest to improve its standing begins with a first-round matchup against 11th-seed Indiana (12-19 SU, 10-15 ATS). The winner of this contest advances to Friday’s quarterfinals against third-seed and 13th-ranked Wisconsin.
The Nittany Lions concluded their regular season by alternating SU wins and losses their last five games. Penn State upended Minnesota Sunday as a five-point road underdog, 66-63, while the combined 129 points slithered ‘over’ the 128-point closing total. The ‘over’ is 4-1 the previous five outings.
The Nittany Lions outrebounded the Golden Gophers, 27-25, but delivered less assists, 14-11. Penn State finished the contest by shooting 45 percent (23-of-51) from the field, and 40 percent (8-of-20) from behind the arc.
Senior guard Talor Battle paced the offense with 22 points, including a pair of free throws with 10.5 seconds remaining to provide the final margin. Forward Jeff Brooks was the only other player to reach double digits in the victory with 20 along with seven rebounds.
Indiana is searching for its first victory since Feb. 2 when the team slipped past Minnesota. The Hoosiers enter the Big Ten Tournament having gone a dismal 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS the past eight outings.
Coach Tom Crean’s squad continued its downward spiral by getting routed by Illinois Saturday as a 10-point road underdog, 72-48. The combined 120 points never seriously threatened the 139-point closing total, ending a string of back-to-back ‘over’ outings.
Indiana quickly found itself in a 19-point deficit at halftime, 46-27, and finished the contest getting dominated in rebounding (40-25) and assists (16-6). The Hoosiers shot a dismal 32 percent (18-of-57) from the field, and 18 percent (3-of-17) from behind the arc.
Guard Verdell Jones III was the only player to reach double digits in scoring with 12 points, while also grabbing seven rebounds. Fourteen players saw action in the setback, and the next highest scorers were guard Jeremiah Rivers and forward Christian Watford who each had seven.
Penn State won the lone encounter with Indiana this season Dec. 27 as a 6½-point road underdog, 69-60. The combined 129 points went ‘under’ the 133-point closing total.
The Nittany Lions are 6-5 ATS on the road, with the ‘over’ going 7-4. The Hoosiers are 4-7 ATS away from home, with the ‘over’ going 8-3.
Don Best's Real-Time Odds installed Penn State as a 3 ½-point ‘chalk’ over Indiana. Thursday’s tipoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. PT from Conseco Fieldhouse.
Missouri clashes with Texas Tech
By: Michael Robinson
The Big 12 Tournament begins Wednesday at the Sprint Center in Kansas City and the Missouri Tigers will face the Texas Tech Red Raiders and recently fired coach Pat Knight.
Bookmaker.com has released the tourney odds. Sixth seed Missouri is fourth at plus 1250, while 11th seed Texas Tech is the second biggest long shot (plus 4500). Favorites Kansas (minus 110), Texas (plus 180) and Kansas State (plus 500) have first-round byes and begin play Thursday.
The Tigers (22-9 straight-up, 12-13-1 against the spread) have a three-game losing streak (0-2-1 ATS), finishing a disappointing 8-8 SU (7-8-1 ATS) in the Big 12. That conference mark was tied for fifth place with Colorado.
Missouri’s last game was Saturday, a 70-66 home loss to Kansas as four-point underdogs. It was Senior Day and the Tigers struggled from the floor at 29.3 percent (17-of-58) shooting, including 13 percent (3-of-23) from ‘three.’
The 136 combined points scored went way ‘under’ the 157-point total. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in Missouri’s last five games, scoring just 69.4 PPG. The 81.5 PPG season average is second in the conference and ninth in the country.
Missouri is now 17-1 SU and 8-4-1 ATS at home this year. It is 5-8 SU and 4-9 ATS in road plus neutral site games.
Mike Anderson is in his fifth year as head coach. He’s made the NCAA tourney the last two years. A win on Wednesday should ensure another berth.
Anderson’s style is an up-tempo offense and pressure defense. The Tigers easily lead the Big 12 in turnover margin (5.39 per game). They’re second in the league in three-point attempts (620), but sixth in accuracy (36.9 percent).
Junior guard Marcus Denmon (16.8 PPG) is the leading scorer and strokes it at 45.7 percent from behind the arc. Laurence Bowers (11.8 PPG) are Ricardo Ratliffe (10.7 PPG) are two 6-foot-8 juniors inside, although Ratliffe has struggled during this losing streak (four PPG).
Freshman Phil Pressey and sophomore Michael Dixon split the point guard duties and try to keep the engine running on full steam.
Texas Tech (13-18 SU, 11-15 ATS) made national news on Monday with the firing of Knight (Bobby’s son). He’s 50-60 in his three years as head coach, but did go 19-16 last year, winning two games in the NIT. He will coach in this tourney before stepping down.
This year’s team underachieved, although it finished up conference play stronger at 5-7 SU and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games.
This is a veteran squad with the top-4 scorers – John Roberson (13.6 PPG), Mike Singletary (12.7 PPG), Brad Reese (11.6 PPG) and David Tairu (9.8 PPG) – all seniors. D'walyn Roberts (6.3 PPG) is another senior who doesn’t want to go quietly in this tourney.
Texas Tech went to Missouri on Feb. 15 and lost 92-84. Texas Tech shot 49.2 percent from the field, but allowed Missouri to hit at a 58.1 percent clip. Denmon was 9-of-13 shooting for a team-high 20 points.
The 176 combined points scored went ‘over’ the 157½-point total. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the teams.
The Red Raiders did get the ‘cover’ as big 16½-point underdogs. The favorite was 9-1 ATS in the previous 10 meetings.
The Big 12 Network will have the tip-off at 6:30 p.m. (PT). The winner of this game will play third seed Texas A&M with the Aggies (plus 1800) bigger underdogs to win the tourney than Missouri.
Pac-10 Tourney: Day 1 Preview and Picks
Oregon State vs. Stanford (-3.5, 134)
THE STORY: Oregon State aims to win its first Pac-10 Tournament game since 2006 when the ninth-seeded Beavers meet No. 8 seed Stanford in a first-round contest on Wednesday. Both teams have struggled of late, with Stanford coming off an uninspired loss to rival California. Oregon State, which has lost seven of its last eight, looks to rebound after five starters were benched for Saturday's loss to Arizona State in the regular-season finale.
TV: 6:10 p.m. EST, Fox Sports Net
ABOUT STANFORD (15-15, 7-11 Pac-10): If Stanford’s performance in Saturday’s 74-55 loss at California is any indication, its time in the Pac-10 Tournament could be short. The Cardinal were outscored 44-16 in the paint and shot 4 of 21 from 3-point range against the Bears, who never trailed in the contest. Junior guard Jeremy Green was the lone bright spot, scoring 19 points. Named to the All-Pac-10 First Team, Green averages 16.5 points and 3.4 rebounds. Over the last 10 games, Green is averaging 21 points and shooting 50 percent (32 of 64) from beyond the arc. Forward Dwight Powell was joined on the conference's all-freshman team by guard Anthony Brown, who scored 21 points in Stanford’s first game against Oregon State.
ABOUT OREGON STATE (10-19, 5-13): Playing without five starters, the Beavers lost 80-66 at Arizona State last Saturday. Coach Craig Robinson benched leading scorer Jared Cunningham, seniors Calvin Haynes, Lathen Wallace and Daniel Deane, and freshman Ahmad Starks for a curfew violation after the team's loss at Arizona on March 3. All five are expected to play in Wednesday’s tournament game. Against Arizona State, freshman guard Roberto Nelson made his first start and scored a career-high 34 points. Cunningham, who was named to the All-Pac-10 second team, averages 13.6 points but had only seven points and five turnovers against Arizona last Thursday.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: The teams split the season series, with the Beavers winning 87-80 on Feb. 24 at Gill Coliseum and Stanford winning 70-56 on Jan. 29 at Maples Pavilion. Oregon State holds a 70-62 advantage in the series and the teams are 4-4 over the last eight games.
UP NEXT: The winner faces top-seeded Arizona on Thursday. Stanford was 0-2 against the Wildcats, while Oregon State split the season series.
Arizona State vs. Oregon (0, 128.5)
THE STORY: Oregon aims to end a six-game losing streak to Arizona State when the teams meet Wednesday in a Pac-10 Tournament first-round game at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. While Oregon, the seventh seed, ended the regular season with four straight losses, 10th-seeded Arizona State won three of its last five, including two impressive wins over the Oregon schools last week.
TV: 11:40 p.m. EST (approx.), Fox Sports Net
ABOUT OREGON (14-16, 7-11 Pac-10): Despite losing their fourth straight, the Ducks had reason to be encouraged by last Saturday’s 90-82 loss at Arizona. Senior forward Joevan Catron, who scored a career-high 28 points against the Wildcats, was named second-team All-Pac-10, after leading the Ducks in multiple categories, including scoring (15.3 points) and rebounding (6.3). Junior point guard Malcolm Armstead recorded his first double-double with 12 points and 11 assists against Arizona, and junior guard Garrett Sim scored a combined 24 points against the Arizona schools last week.
ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (12-18, 4-14): Seniors Ty Abbott, Rihards Kuksiks and Jamelle McMillan combined for 55 points in last Thursday’s 73-53 win over Oregon and 50 more in the Sun Devils’ 80-66 win over Oregon State last Saturday. Abbott was named Pac-10 Player of the Week after making 12 3-pointers in the two games. Arizona State shot 33 of 76 (43.4 percent) from beyond the arc in its last two games. Sophomore guard Trent Lockett was named second team All-Pac-10 after averaging a team-high 13.1 points per game. Lockett also averaged 5.3 rebounds and shot 50.2 percent from the field.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: Arizona State has won six straight against Oregon, sweeping the Ducks in each of the past three seasons. Oregon has been frustrated this season by Arizona State’s zone defense, with the Ducks’ two worst shooting percentages during conference play coming against the Sun Devils.
In the Ducks’ 60-55 home loss on Jan. 1, Oregon shot 32.1 percent from the field. Playing without Lockett (foot injury), Arizona State received a game-high 19 points from sophomore Carrick Felix. When the teams met in Tempe on March 3, Oregon lost 73-53 after shooting 29.6 percent. Senior Jay-R Strowbridge scored 17 points to pace the Ducks.
UP NEXT: The winner faces No.2 seed UCLA on Thursday. Oregon and Arizona State were a combined 0-4 against the Bruins during the Pac-10 regular season.
Big 12 Tourney: Day 1 Preview and Picks
Oklahoma State vs. Nebraska (-3.5, 124.5)
THE STORY: Both Nebraska and Oklahoma State have shown moments of brilliance this season by knocking off ranked opponents. They'll probably need to sustain such a moment for four days in Kansas City to find their way into the 68-team NCAA Tournament field, though. The journey to that improbable goal begins Wednesday, when the eighth-seeded Cornhuskers face the ninth-seeded Cowboys in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament at Sprint Center.
TV: 12:30 p.m. EST, Big 12 Network, ESPN3.com
ABOUT NEBRASKA (19-11, 7-9 Big 12): After capping a three-game winning streak with a 70-67 home win against Texas, the Cornhuskers limped to the finish, losing three of their last four regular-season games, including a 67-57 loss at Colorado on Saturday. The one win was an impressive one, though, a 69-58 home victory against Missouri, and Nebraska hopes its two recent wins over ranked opponents will help sway the selection committee for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. The Cornhuskers are one of the nation's best defensive teams, holding opponents to 60.2 points per game and 38.6 percent shooting.
ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (18-12, 6-10 Big 12): Despite losing four straight in February, the Cowboys had a chance to carry some momentum into this week, but their modest two-game winning streak was snapped with a 64-61 loss at rival Oklahoma on Saturday. The Cowboys boast a dangerous trio in forward Marshall Moses (14.7 ppg) and guards Keiton Page (13.1 ppg) and Jean-Paul Olukemi (11.5 ppg), but they're short of depth, especially after guard Ray Penn's suspension from the team last week for violating team rules.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: The Cornhuskers took the only regular-season meeting, winning 65-54 in Lincoln, Neb., on Feb. 12. Leading scorer Lance Jeter carried the offensive load for Nebraska with 16 points in the win. Moses (18 points) and Page (14 points) had solid games for the Cowboys in the loss, but the rest of the team struggled, combining to shoot 8 for 29 from the field.
UP NEXT: The winner gets a tough matchup in the quarterfinals, as top-seed Kansas awaits — and the Jayhawks will have plenty of support from the crowd in Kansas City.
Iowa State vs. Colorado (-4.5, 153.5)
THE STORY: Iowa State did a good bit of damage to Colorado's postseason resume last week in Ames, Iowa. Now the Cyclones have a chance to finish the job Wednesday in Kansas City, as 12th-seeded Iowa State takes on No. 5 seed Colorado in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament at Sprint Center.
TV: 3 p.m. EST, Big 12 Network, ESPN3.com
ABOUT COLORADO (19-12, 8-8 Big 12): The Buffaloes likely need at least one win, if not more, to play their way off the bubble and into the NCAA Tournament, a more difficult task after last Wednesday's 95-90 loss at Iowa State. Colorado did bounce back for a 67-57 home win against Nebraska on Saturday, but unless they turn some heads this week, it might have been too little, too late.
ABOUT IOWA STATE (16-15, 3-13 Big 12): A 10-game losing streak in January and February did in the Cyclones' season, but they've done their part the past couple of weeks to share the misery. Home wins against Nebraska and Colorado left black marks on otherwise solid postseason resumes, and Iowa State can do more damage this week, if it gets hot. The Cyclones closed the regular season with a 67-55 loss at Kansas State, their 11th loss in 13 games.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: The teams split the regular-season series, with Colorado pounding Iowa State 95-69 in Boulder, Colo., on Feb. 1, and the Cyclones exacting revenge and playing spoiler last week in Ames. Colorado star Alec Burks hurt the Cyclones in both games with 19 points and 10 rebounds in the first meeting and 24 points and nine boards in the second. The Buffaloes were red-hot in the home win in February, shooting 50 percent overall, including 11 for 23 from 3-point range. But the Cyclones returned the favor last week, hitting 57.1 percent from the field and 9 of 20 from 3-point range.
UP NEXT: The winner will face Kansas State in Thursday's quarterfinals; the Wildcats enter the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the conference, riding a six-game winning streak.
Oklahoma vs. Baylor (-7.5, 129.5)
THE STORY: March has been a special month for Baylor the past two years. The Bears made a run to the Big 12 Tournament finals two years ago, and made it to the doorstep of the Final Four a year ago before losing to eventual national champion Duke. After a disappointing regular season, Baylor might need another long march this week in Kansas City to get back to the NCAA Tournament, and it begins when the No. 7 seed Bears take on No. 10 seed Oklahoma at 7 p.m. Wednesday in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament at Sprint Center.
TV: 7 p.m. EST, Big 12 Network, ESPN3.com
ABOUT BAYLOR (18-12, 7-9 Big 12): The Bears were ranked as high as ninth after a 7-0 start and another deep run in the NCAA Tournament seemed like a distinct possibility. But they've struggled ever since, losing five of their last six conference games, including a 60-54 home loss to Texas on Saturday. Senior guard LaceDarius Dunn scored 22 points to pass former Texas Tech star Andre Emmett as the Big 12's all-time leading scorer.
ABOUT OKLAHOMA (13-17, 5-11 Big 12): The Sooners seemed to have things turned around when they won four straight conference games in January and February, but things went awry over the past month. Oklahoma lost eight straight before capping the regular season with a 64-61 home win against rival Oklahoma State. Now the Sooners need nothing short of a Big 12 Tournament title to prolong their season past this week.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: The teams split the regular-season series, with each winning at home. The Bears shot a scorching 62.2 percent from the field in a 74-61 win in Waco, Texas, on Jan. 11, but Cameron Clark and Carl Blair Jr. combined for 44 points to lead the Sooners to a 73-66 win in Norman, Okla., on Feb. 2.
UP NEXT: The winner advances to face No. 2 seed Texas — which swept both teams in the regular season — in Thursday's second round.
Texas Tech vs. Missouri (-10, 154.5)
THE STORY: Most experts' projections suggest Missouri doesn't need to do anything more to make the 68-team NCAA Tournament field. But the Tigers would be wise not to leave any doubt, and at least one victory in the Big 12 Tournament this week in Kansas City probably would seal the deal. The sixth-seeded Tigers will have a shot to earn that win in the first round Wednesday at Sprint Center, where they take on No. 11 seed Texas Tech, which could be playing its last game under coach Pat Knight.
TV: 9:30 p.m. EST, Big 12 Network, ESPN3.com
ABOUT MISSOURI (22-9, 8-8 Big 12): The Tigers, who have become a tough matchup in March thanks to coach Mike Anderson's frenetic style of play, were ranked as high as No. 8 this season. But their struggles away from Mizzou Arena led to a slide in the polls and a .500 finish in the Big 12 after Saturday's 70-66 home loss to Kansas. Missouri's pressure defense feeds off partisan crowds, which could be a plus in Kansas City, where a large contingent should be on hand to cheer for the Tigers. A deep run in the Big 12 Tournament probably isn't necessary to punch Missouri's ticket to the NCAA Tournament, but the Tigers wouldn't mind a few wins this week, if only to distance themselves from their three-game losing streak to end the regular-season.
ABOUT TEXAS TECH (13-18, 5-11 Big 12): The Red Raiders showed signs of life in the Big 12 by winning three straight in late January, but they lost seven of their last nine to fade to the back of the pack and ended the regular season with a 66-54 loss at Texas A&M on Saturday. Knight was fired as the Red Raiders' coach Monday; he will step down after the Big 12 Tournament. Texas Tech can keep up on the offensive end, with three players averaging double figures in scoring and another just a shade under 10 points per game, but the Red Raiders struggle at the defensive end, giving up 74.9 points per game and allowing opponents to shoot 45.6 percent from the field — they rank last in the Big 12 in both categories.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: Missouri won the only regular-season meeting, 92-84 on Feb. 15 in Columbia, Mo., as the Tigers' guards led a hot-shooting night. Marcus Denmon scored 20 points, Kim English added 16, and Michael Dixon Jr. had 13, as Missouri shot 58.1 percent from the field and 8 for 17 from 3-point range.
UP NEXT: The winner gets No. 3 seed Texas A&M in Thursday's quarterfinals; the Aggies beat Missouri in overtime Jan. 15 and swept the regular-season series from the Red Raiders.
Big 12 Notes - First Round
By Kevin Rogers
The Big 12 tournament begins on Wednesday afternoon from the Sprint Center in Kansas City as seeds five through 12 get the first shot to make a run at an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament. Four games take place with several teams trying to get off the bubble to bolster the amount of Big 12 squads to head to the Big Dance. We'll start with the 8-9 game between a pair of clubs that need to make a run to impressive the tournament committee.
(8) Nebraska vs. (9) Oklahoma State
This matchup is interesting from several different perspectives as the game tips off at 11:30 AM Central time. The Cowboys dropped five of their final seven games of the season, while the Huskers are riding a 1-3 run, definitely not positive signs to get in as one the final seeds of the Big Dance.
OSU has been pointspread poison recently by failing to cover seven of the previous eight games, including an 0-3 ATS mark as an underdog. One of those losses came in Lincoln on February 12 as the Huskers pulled out a 65-54 victory as 5½-point favorites. The Cowboys were limited to 36% shooting from the floor, while the Huskers had just one player in double-figures.
Nebraska, playing in its final Big 12 tournament before going to the Big 10 next season, looks for its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1998. Doc Sadler's team has covered only one of their last four games as a favorite, while losing seven of their past eight games away from home. The Huskers are listed as a three-point favorite, while the total is set at 126½.
(5) Colorado vs. (12) Iowa State
The Buffaloes' time in the Big 12 is coming to a close with their impending move to the Pac 12 next season. Colorado looks to make the most of this tournament as the Buffs attempt a run at an at-large bid against Fred Hoiberg's Cyclones.
These two teams split a pair of games this season with the home squad winning each time. Colorado blew out ISU in Boulder on February 1 by a 95-69 count, easily cashing as 7½-point favorites. The Buffs drilled 11 three-pointers, while hitting 50% of their shots from the field. Iowa State also knocked down 11 treys in the loss, as the Cyclones were outrebounded, 43-29.
The Cyclones got revenge in Ames last Wednesday, 95-90 as short home 'chalk.' ISU shot significantly better the second time around against Colorado by shooting 57% from the floor, while Calvin Godfrey came off the bench to score 23 points on 10-of-11 from the field. The Cyclones have covered three straight games heading into the Big 12 tournament, while the Buffaloes are 4-1 ATS the previous five opportunities as a favorite.
Colorado is laying 4½ points to Iowa State, with the total listed at 156½.
(7) Baylor vs. (10) Oklahoma
The Bears were an Elite Eight team a season ago, but Scott Drew's squad may be destined for the NIT this season with an 18-12 mark. Baylor's last charge at an at-large bid begins a struggling Oklahoma team that has dropped eight of nine since a four-game winning streak.
The final game of that hot streak for Jeff Capel's club came in an afternoon affair in Norman, a 73-66 victory over Baylor as 4 ½-point home 'dogs. The Bears knocked off the Sooners in Waco on January 11 by 13, but OU covered as 16½-point underdogs. Baylor shot lights out in that win with a 62% clip from the floor, while the Bears failed to cover six of nine games as a conference favorite.
The Sooners are 1-13 SU and 4-10 ATS away from home this season, as OU is 3-5 ATS since a 6-2 ATS start in conference action. Baylor is one of the poorer ATS teams this season in Division I with a 7-15 ATS mark, while failing to cover four of the last five games.
The Bears are listed as 7½-point 'chalk,' as the total is set at 130½.
(5) Missouri vs. (12) Texas Tech
The night concludes with the only "local" team playing as Kansas and Kansas State are off until Thursday. Missouri is pretty much locked into an at-large berth with a 22-9 record, while Texas Tech is near the end of the Pat Knight regime after the Red Raiders finished the regular season at 13-18.
The Tigers are struggling at the moment with three consecutive losses, including double-digit setbacks to Nebraska and Kansas State on the road. Mike Anderson's team is known as uptempo and high-scoring, but Mizzou has been held to 77 points or less in five straight games. Missouri outlasted Texas Tech in their only meeting in Columbia on February 15 by a 92-84 decision. The Red Raiders cashed as 16½-point 'dogs, even though Tech shot 49% from the floor in the defeat.
Following an 0-4 ATS start in Big 12 play, the Red Raiders were a profitable team to back the last six weeks with a 9-3 ATS run the final 12 games. During this hot ATS streak, Tech covered four of six opportunities as double-digit 'dogs, including outright victories at Iowa State and Baylor.
Missouri is listed as 10-point favorites, while the total is set at 156½.
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Big East tourney: Day 2 Preview and Picks
Connecticut vs. Georgetown
THE STORY: Neither Georgetown nor Connecticut had the finish to the regular season that they were looking for over the past few weeks. After losing star senior point guard Chris Wright in late February, the 22nd-ranked Hoyas just barely had enough to earn the eighth seed and a first-round bye in this week's conference tournament. They’ll be without Wright again on Wednesday, when the Hoyas face the Huskies in the second round of the Big East Championship at Madison Square Garden.
Connecticut blew out DePaul in Tuesday’s opening round and won the only meeting with Georgetown in February.
TV: 12 p.m. ET, ESPN
ABOUT GEORGETOWN (21-9, 10-8 Big East): The Hoyas were the hottest team in the Big East from the middle of January until the back end of February, ripping off eight straight victories and nine of 10. It all started to go south at home against Cincinnati on Feb. 23, when Wright, the team’s second-leading scorer, went down in the first half with a broken left hand. Georgetown went onto lose that game and the next two to close out the regular season. They ended the season with a 69-47 loss at Cincinnati on Saturday. The Hoyas managed a total of eight assists and shot 32 percent in the setback, despite 21 points from Austin Freeman.
ABOUT CONNECTICUT (22-9, 9-9): Coach Jim Calhoun earned his 300th Big East win in the first round of the tournament on Tuesday, as the Huskies beat up on last-place DePaul, 97-71. After dropping four of five heading into the tournament, Connecticut got back to doing what it does best against the Blue Demons, dominating the glass, 44-20, and spreading the floor with Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lamb. Walker led the way with 26 points, while Lamb added 19, and Alex Oriakhi controlled the inside with 13 points and 19 rebounds.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: The Huskies took the lone meeting this season, 78-70, in Connecticut on Feb. 16. Walker dominated with 31 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds and Jamal Coombs-McDaniel added 23 points for the Huskies. Wright paced Georgetown with 19 points and five assists.
UP NEXT: The winner gets top-seeded Pittsburgh on Thursday. Connecticut lost at the Panthers, 78-63, in its Big East opener on Dec. 27 and the Hoyas fell at home to Pittsburgh, 72-57, on Jan. 12.
Rutgers vs. St. John's
THE STORY: St. John’s wasn’t part of the preseason discussion in the Big East but forced its way in over the last six weeks, winning nine of its last 11 games to shoot up to No. 18 in the country and into the No. 5 seed in the Big East. The Red Storm also get the benefit of playing the Big East Championship at Madison Square Garden, where they have already taken down five ranked teams this season. Thirteenth-seeded Rutgers is coming off an overtime victory against Seton Hall in the first round on Tuesday and will be looking to keep its season alive when it faces the Red Storm on Wednesday.
TV: 2 p.m.. ESPN
ABOUT ST. JOHN’S (20-10, 12-6): Having already secured their first 20-win season since the 1999-00 campaign, the Red Storm enter the Big East tournament as a lock to earn an at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament but also as one of the few schools that believes it can take the championship this week. St. John’s went 7-1 at Madison Square Garden, including wins over Top-10 teams Duke, Notre Dame and Pittsburgh. The Red Storm are coming off a 72-56 win over South Florida in the regular-season finale on Saturday. D.J. Kennedy scored 16 points and Dwight Hardy added 14 in the win.
ABOUT RUTGERS (15-16, 5-13): The Scarlet Knight slumped into the tournament having dropped nine of 11 but did not appear ready to end their season on Monday, battling back from deficits in regulation and overtime en route to a 76-70 triumph over 12th-seeded Seton Hall. Jonathan Mitchell hit a 3-pointer in the final minute of regulation to put Rutgers ahead and scored eight of his 25 points in overtime to secure the win.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: The Scarlet Knights took the Red Storm down to the wire on Feb. 2, before falling, 58-56, at Carnesecca Arena on the St. John’s campus. Rutgers fought back from a 10-point deficit to tie it in the final minutes, but Justin Brownlee hit a layup with four seconds left to give the Red Storm the win. Hardy scored 15 points for St. John’s ,while Mitchell led the Scarlet Knights with 21.
UP NEXT: The winner gets fourth-seeded Syracuse in the quarterfinals on Thursday. The Orange were the last team to beat St. John’s at Madison Square Garden, picking up a 76-59 triumph on Jan. 12. Rutgers took Syracuse to overtime on Feb. 19, falling 84-80 at the Carrier Dome.
Big East - Second Round
By Judd Hall
The Big East tournament was pared down by four teams after Tuesday’s first round action. That means we’ve got 12 teams still in the mix to cut down the nets on Saturday night at MSG.
We’ll have eight teams in action on Wednesday, starting at 12:00 p.m. EST. Coming off of their biggest conference tourney win against DePaul, the Huskies will take on Georgetown, followed by St. John’s taking on either the Scarlet Knights.
During the night session in NYC, we’ll see South Florida facing off with the Bearcats. Finally, we’ll West Virginia square off against either Marquette.
Connecticut vs. Georgetown
Connecticut (22-9 straight up, 14-11 against the spread) has to feel good about its chances of making it to the conference quarterfinals right now. Jim Calhoun’s team won its lone meeting with the Hoyas, capturing a 78-70 win as a 2 ½-point home favorite on Feb. 16. Kemba Walker was awfully close to picking up a triple-double in this game, but had to settle for 31 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds.
The Huskies opened the Big East tourney in grand style with a 97-71 triumph to easily cover as 15-point favorites on Tuesday afternoon. Walker was the catalyst for UConn pulling away in the second half, scoring 26 points and seven boards. Jamal Coombs-McDaniel (11 points, 3 rebounds), Alex Oriakhi (13 pts., 19 reb.) and Shabazz Napier (11 pts., 8 assists) provided Connecticut with big performances off of the bench.
The win snuffed out a two-game slide for UConn, while seeing the ‘under’ go 10-2-1 in its last 13 games.
Georgetown (21-9 SU, 15-14 ATS) enters this second round matchup on a three-game slide. Bettors that backed the Hoyas recently have been forced into eating Top Ramen as they’ve closed out the year on an 0-5 ATS run. G-Town wound up the regular season with a 69-47 trouncing by the Bearcats, failing to cover as a four-point road pup. Austin Freeman was the lone bright spot in this contest for the Hoyas, scoring 21points with four helpers.
The Huskies have been underdogs nine times this season. They’ve gone 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS in those affairs. The ‘under’ is 5-4 for the bulk of those games, but is on a 4-0 run recently.
Georgetown comes into this game with a 9-7 SU and 8-8 ATS record as a single-digit “chalk.” However, they’ve gone 1-3 ATS in the last four matches in this role. The ‘under is 11-5 during the season as a single-digit favorite.
The winner of this battle will get to battle No. 1 Pittsburgh at 12:00 p.m. EST on ESPN this Thursday.
Rutgers vs. St. John’s
Rutgers (15-16 SU, 13-12-2 ATS) made its way out of the first round of the Big East tourney for the first time since 2006 with a 76-70 overtime win over the Pirates on Tuesday afternoon. The Scarlet Knights had every chance to put this game away in regulation with a 37-19 free throw advantage, but some coaching stupidity on Mike Rice gave Seton Hall the ability to force extra time. Jonathan Mitchell paced the Scarlet Knights with 25 points, three boards and three assists.
St. John’s (20-10 SU, 15-14 ATS) is not one of the teams you’d want to be facing right now. The Red Storm closed out the year with a 7-1 SU and ATS to put themselves in position for a good seeding in the big dance. That tends to happen when you’re in the Top 20 of the AP Poll, RPI and in the Top 10 for strength of schedule.
Even though the records and stats would suggest a blowout for the Johnnies, the lone meeting they had this season tells a different story. St. John’s pulled out a 58-56 win in NYC back on Feb. 2 because Justin Brownlee made a layup with just over four second left in the game. Mitchell paced the kids from Piscataway with 21 points and five boards.
The Red Storm have won six of their last eight games SU against Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights, however, are helping our endeavors with a 5-3 ATS record in those battles. The ‘under’ is 6-2 in that stretch to boot.
Rutgers has seen the ‘under’ go 14-11-1 this season. Yet we should also point out that the ‘over’ is currently on a 6-3 run at the present moment.
Syracuse awaits the winner of this contest on Thursday at 2:00 p.m. EST on ESPN.
South Florida vs. Cincinnati
If someone had this as a second round matchup, then you’re either a genius or a damned liar. Care to guess which one I’m betting on?
South Florida (10-22 SU, 16-13 ATS) showed the knack to pull off a first round upset for the second straight year with a 70-69 win over the Wildcats as a 9 ½-point underdog. Plus, they pulled down a plus-400 payday for people that took them for the outright upset. Anthony Crater scored the winning basket with 5.1 seconds after a horrible second half of shooting by Villanova. Shaun Noriega was the top man for the Bulls with 22 points and three boards.
The Bulls will be taking on Cincinnati (24-7 SU, 14-11 ATS), who come into this game with a 5-1 SU and ATS record to close Big East play. The Bearcats are already firmly ensconced in an NCAA tourney berth, but a deep run in the conference tournament can possibly give them a better seeding. As if an 11-7 mark in league games wouldn’t be enough to get them some street cred from the selection committee.
While Cincy comes into the game as a favorite, they’ve had problems with the Bulls in the past. The Bearcats won a cynical 74-66 contest in Southwest Ohio back on Jan. 12. Redshirt freshman Sean Kilpatrick came off the bench to give Cincinnati a boost with 18 points with three boards and three helpers.
South Florida has gone 4-4 SU over its last eight meetings with the Bearcats, going back to March 2005. In that timeframe, the Bulls covered the spread on every single occasion making them a strong look for our purposes. The ‘over’ came through for a 6-2 mark.
Cincinnati has watched the ‘under’ become almost automatic this year with an 18-8 mark. USF watched the ‘under’ take a slight 15-14 advantage.
The winner of this game will face off with the Fighting Irish on Thursday at 7:00 p.m. EST on ESPN.
Marquette vs. West Virginia
The Golden Eagles closed out the first day of action the same way UConn opened it up, a blowout. Marquette (19-13 SU, 15-11 ATS) dominated the Friars to the tune of a 87-66 win as a seven-point favorite in the nightcap. Jimmy Butler no doubt helped his team secure an NCAA tournament berth with 19 points, 10 boards and eight assists.
West Virginia (20-10 SU, 12-15 ATS) closed out the regular season campaign with a three-game winning streak. That includes a 72-70 win over the Cardinals to close out league matches. However, they burnt backers by failing to cover as a 3 ½-point home favorite. That brings the Mountaineers to 3-6 ATS in their final nine games.
When these two teams met on New Year’s Day, Marquette won 79-74 as a two-point home “chalk” over the Mountaineers. The 153 combined points easily shot ‘over’ the closing total of 143.That shot down a three-game ‘under’ streak between the two teams.
The ‘under’ has gone 14-12 for the Mountaineers, while the Golden Eagles have seen it go 15-11 this year.
A Thursday primetime affair with Louisville awaits the victor of this game at 9:00 p.m. EST on ESPN.
vegasinsider.com
West Coast Update
By Bruce Marshall
We’ve reached midweek, and tournament action in the four remaining western conferences begins on Wednesday. Mountain West, Pac-10, and WAC festivities get underway later today, and all are briefly previewed, along with today’s matchups, below. The Big West begins its fun at the Anaheim Honda Center on Thursday, when we will begin our daily reports on that loop’s festivities, taking place not far from Disneyland. We’ll also be reviewing the day’s events and previewing upcoming action with the three previously-mentioned leagues throughout the week.
Following are quick previews and matchups for the three conferences kicking things off on Wednesday.
MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
All teams compete. First round March 9 with #8 vs. #9. Quarterfinals March 10 with #1 seed vs. #8-#9 winner, #4 vs. #5, #2 vs. #7, and #3 vs. #6. Semifinals March 11. Final March 12. All games at Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, Nevada (home court of UNLV). LY's WINNER: San Diego State +4' beat UNLV 55-45.
TEAM TO BEAT: San Diego State...Unlike recent seasons, the Aztecs enter Las Vegas with their NCAA bid in hand, which in a sense might make SDSU a bit more vulnerable. But aside from the pair of losses this season vs. BYU, the Aztecs were clearly the class of the league, and Brandon Davies’ suspension from the Cougar roster is enough to make SDSU the favorite in this event despite its number two seed. Should a third matchup vs. BYU materialize, SDSU would figure to have the edge, as the Cougs would not have Davies to help neutralize mobile Aztec frontliner Kawhi Leonard and Malcolm Thomas. But the Aztecs, given their sure-thing NCAA status, are more vulnerable than most realize this week.
TOP CONTENDER: UNLV...We won’t even give BYU this spot as we believe the Cougars are severely hampered by Davies’ suspension (although they’ve had more than a week to adjust to his absence by now). The Rebels have won this event on their home floor numerous times (although not since 2008) and enter this event as arguably the loop’s hottest team, with five straight wins. Improved three-point shooting over the last four games (UNLV was hitting just 29% beyond the arc in MWC action prior) has fueled the recent charge, with the development of young bigs Carlos Lopez and Quintrell Thomas an unexpected bonus for HC Lon Kruger. Note, however, that the Rebs have failed to cover their last 7 at the Thomas & Mack Center (we’ll talk more about that on Thursday with the quarterfinal matchup vs. Air Force).
DARKHORSE: New Mexico...It’s surprising how many MWC observers believe the Lobos have a real chance in Vegas. New Mexico’s last five losses have all been by 6 points or fewer, with five losses this season by three points or fewer. The Lobos, however, have some confidence at the moment with three straight wins, including an 82-64 blowout win at BYU last Wednesday when the Lobos punished the Brandon Davies-less Cougars. That was also the second time this season New Mexico has beaten BYU, so you can see why Steve Alford’s crew might think it has a good chance to make it a hat-trick if it can hook the Cougs (as expected) in the semifinals. First, however, New Mexico must get pasta tough 4-5 game on Thursday vs. Colorado State. which also might think it can take out BYU sans Davies. Note that the Lobos’ 6-9 UCLA transfer F Drew Gordon hauled in a league-record-for-juniors 189 rebounds in conference games. New Mexico will also be well-supported in Las Vegas, with 3000-4000 Lobo fans expected to make the trip from Albuquerque. We would not be terribly surprised if neither San Diego State nor Davies-less BYU made it to the final game.
Wednesday's first-round matchup:
Wyoming vs. TCU...Adding what little intrigue exists in this matchup are rumors from Fort Worth that TCU HC Jim Christian might be on his way out the door in wake of the 13 straight losses to finish the Horned Frogs’ season, with move to Big East (ouch!) slated for 2012-13 campaign. Keep an eye on reports that ex-UTEP, Texas A&M, & Kentucky HC Billy Gillispie might surface at the new Frogs coach. MWC sources prefer Wyo’s athleticism but not its work ethic, which has been absent on defensive end since interim HC Fred Langley has decided to simply roll the balls onto the court and let Cowboys run to their heart’s content.
The numbers are a bit scary both ways; TCU enters having lost 13 in a row SU (hence Christian’s iffy job status), covering only nine of those. Wyo, which had a brief 4-game cover streak in early February, enters having covered just one of its last five games. The recent trend to note, however, is the Cowboys’ string of "overs" (3 straight and 5 of last 6), no surprise given Langley’s desire to go up-tempo.
WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
Top 8 teams compete. First round March 9 with #5 vs. #8 and #6 vs. #7. Quarterfinals March 10 with #4 vs. #5-#8 winner and #3 vs. #6-#7 winner. Semifinals March 11. Final March 12. All games at Orleans Hotel Arena, Las Vegas, NV. LY's WINNER: New Mexico State +9' beat Utah State 69-63.
TEAM TO BEAT: Utah State...The Utags enter Las Vegas with a 28-3 mark, better than a year ago when Stew Morrill’s side was beaten in the conference tourney final but still ended up with an NCAA at-large bid. Longtime USU backers, however, will want to take nothing for granted, with memories of the Selection Committee denying a 4-loss Utag team an invitation during its days in the Big West earlier in the last decade still fresh in their minds. We don’t think they have much to worry about this season. That’s because this USU edition has a bit more pop than a familiar-looking side from a year ago thanks to new PG Brockeith Pane, a JC transfer and former Houston Cougar who has added far more athleticism to the spot than we have normally seen from Morrill’s point guards (most recently the steady Jared Quayle). Meanwhile, sr. F Tai Wesley was named WAC Player of the Year, and there are always Morrill’s myriad defensive schemes and looks that can adjust to any style of opponent. We were not terribly stunned that the Utags lost in this event last year at Reno; we’d be downright shocked if they don’t prevail this time, even with their NCAA bid secure.
TOP CONTENDER: Boise State...Although Idaho (the only team to beat the Utags in conference play) might seem a more-likely choice as the top contender, we instead opt for hot Boise, which brings a 7-game win streak into Las Vegas as the conference’s second seed, which also means a bye into the semifinal round of this event. Moreover, the Broncos have already played once at the Orleans Arena this season (vs. UNLV back in December), so they’ll have a bit more familiarity with the surroundings than everyone else. The senior-laden squad finally started to get the hang of the schemes of first-year HC Leon Rice, who had spent the past several seasons as Mark Few’s top tactician at Gonzaga. Improved defensive work down the stretch, when the Broncos held three of their final four foes to fewer than 60 points, suggests we might want to discount their 45.3% FG defense, which ranked last in the league. Senior G La’Shard Anderson enters the tourney as one of the WAC’s hottest players, scoring 21.8 ppg in his last four games.
DARKHORSE: Hawaii...The Warriors get no scheduling breaks in Vegas and will have to win four games in as many days to prevail. But Hawaii was playing almost as well as Boise in recent weeks, and enters Vegas having covered 9 of its last 12 games. The Warriors also had a five-game SU win streak snapped in the regular-season finale at Fresno State. First-year HC Gib Arnold impressed with his tactics, especially on the defensive end where the Warriors allowed only 39.2% FGs. Meanwhile, the attack developed a sharper edge as 6'9 PF Bill Amis returned from injury to score 15.1 ppg, making for a nice inside portion to a scoring combo that also features explosive 6'6 combo G Zane Johnson, an Arizona transfer tallying a team-best 15.8 ppg. An unexpected sparkplug in recent weeks has been PG Miah Ostrowski, a walk-on from the football team who was mostly excellent in relief of sr. PG Hiram Thompson, whose availability for WAC Tourney action after an elbow injury was iffy.
Wednesday's first-round matchups:
Hawaii vs. San Jose State...Here’s a quick rematch from Hawaii’s 77-71 win last Thursday in San Jose. For the Spartans to reverse matters, they’re going to have to solve Gib Arnold’s defense that has shadowed Spartans’ WAC top scorer Adrian Oliver (24.3 ppg), held to mere 14 ppg in two reg.-season meetings when he connected on a mere 8 of 26 from floor in the two games combined. San Jose also had lots of trouble coping with Hawaii’s 6-9 PF Bill Amis, who hit a combined 18 of 27 from floor in the two Warrior wins and covers vs. Spartans. Spread-wise, despite Saturday’s loss at Fresno, Hawaii was a definite go-with proposition (9-3 vs. line last 12) down stretch. The Warriors are also "over" their last five and 7 of their last 8. As for San Jose, it has been a very streak spread performer this season; at the moment the Spartans have failed to cover their last two. San Jose has also dropped 4 of its last 5 spread decisions away from its home Event Center, is also "under" 4 of is last 5.
Nevada vs. Fresno State...Must duly noted the mild Fresno uprising in recent weeks, with Bulldogs winning SU in 3 of their last 5 outings. And the return to active duty of jr. F Tim Steed from suspension is especially good news against Nevada, against who Steed scored 26 and 20 points, respectively, in the pair of regular-season meetings. But a Bulldog recommendation is a risky one, especially considering FSU’s WAC-low 62.6% FT shooting and often-sluggish offense scoring only 67.2 ppg, ahead of only lowly La Tech in WAC rankings. Meanwhile, Nevada’s chances will be greatly enhanced if usually-reliable G Malik Story (13.6 ppg) rediscovers shooting eye that deserted him in last three games when connecting on only 8 of 37 from floor.
Spread-wise, there isn’t much to highlight either way, save for perhaps Fresno’s four covers in as many meetings vs. the Wolf Pack since last season.
PACIFIC 10 CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
All teams compete. Opening round March 9 with #8 vs. #9 and #7 vs. #10. Quarterfinals March 10 with #1 vs. #8-#9 winner, #2 vs. #7-#10 winner, #3 vs. #6, and #4 vs. #5. Semifinals March 11. Final March 12. All games at Staples Center, Los Angeles. LY's WINNER: Washington +2 beat California 79-75.
TEAM TO BEAT: UCLA...This is a soft recommendation, as we would not be surprised if 6 or even 7 different teams won this event at Staples Center. But the Bruins at least have the hometown edge (along with Southern Cal, whose campus is even closer to Staples), and have been the most consistent Pac-10 performer since mid-January, winning 13 of their last 16. Check the status of PG Malcolm Lee, who could sit out the Bruins’ first game on Thursday with a knee injury suffered last weekend at Washington State, but Ben Howland has seen others step to the fore, including soph PF Reeves Nelson and Shaq-like 6'11 frosh C Joshua Smith, who has given hints of what sort of a monster he might eventually become.
TOP CONTENDER: Southern Cal...The other local entry has proven it can beat anyone in the conference (except Oregon) and for that matter anyone in the country, having won at Texas and Tennessee and Washington and almost winning at Kansas as well. When the mood strikes, the Trojans can be a load, although the team has demonstrated a bipolar performance pattern all season (some bad losses include that pair to the Ducks, plus Oregon State, TCU, Bradley, and a 20-point pasting courtesy Rider). Troy’s 6'10 C Nicola Vucevic (17.1 ppg) is a versatile threat, but also SC’s only consistent scorer, with the likes of Fordham transfer G Jio Fontan and backcourt mate Donte Smith often blowing hot and cold, and team FT shooting (hovering around 65% most of the season) has been a concern. Coach Kevin O’Neill’s defensive bag of tricks is always likely to discombobulate an opponent. And, for what it’s worth, we prefer both UCLA and SC over regular-season champ Arizona, which was humbled against both the Bruins and Trojans in its trip to the L.A. area two weeks ago.
DARKHORSE: Cal...Interestingly, Cal meets SC in a first-round game on Thursday; we wouldn’t be surprised if the winner of that one goes on to steal the tourney crown. Although the Golden Bears didn’t appear to be capable of such a run for most of the season, they do now, especially with frosh 2-G Allen Crabbe (23 ppg last 3; 11 of 18 triples in those games) emerging as a legit go-to threat. Crabbe’s emergence means shrewd HC Mike Montgomery now has enough pieces to make things work, as Crabbe is complemented in the backcourt by jr. QB Jorge Gutierrez, while bruising frontliners Harper Kamp Markhuri Sanders-Frison provide a punishing presence on the blocks. Most of all, there’s Montgomery on the sidelines, perhaps Cal’s biggest advantage of all.
Wednesday's first-round matchups:
Stanford vs. Oregon State...Stanford had held the tactical edge on Craig Robinson’s OSU and its modified Princeton looks on the attack end the past two seasons (with Cardinal winning and covering 4 in a row, the last 3 by DD margins) prior to a Feb. 24 loss at Corvallis when Beavers hit an uncommon 62% from floor. Can that happen again? Keep in mind, however, that Stanford was 50% or better from floor in both reg.-season meetings vs. the slowish OSU defense. Johnny Dawkins’ emerging crew of freshmen, led by G Aaron bright, swingman Anthony Brown, and PF Dwight Powell, have been providing more than 50% of Stanford’s offense in Pac-10 play, at least boding well for the future on The Farm. Also note some possible internal issues in Corvallis, after Robinson benched five players for violating team rules prior to the regular-season ender art Arizona State when G Roberto Nelson at least stepped forward to score a career-best 34 points.
On the technical side, Beaver HC Robinson might consider asking for some Federal aid from his brother-in-law after OSU dropped SU decisions in 7 of its last 8 and 13 of its last 16 games, with the Beavs getting covers in just five of those. As for the Cardinal, it has been trending "over" lately (7 out of last 9).
Oregon vs. Arizona State...What happened to Oregon? Considered a Pac-10 Tourney darkhorse a few weeks ago, the Ducks lost their last four reg.-season games. Some Pac-10 sources believe OU simply hit a late-season wall, losing some energy as it wore itself out executing new HC Dana Altman’s demanding, pressure style. But the Ducks scrapped effectively in reg.-season-ending loss at Pac-10 top-seed Arizona. And we wonder if ASU can score a series hat-trick or if its inconsistent attack can nail another 16 triples as it did in last Thursday’s 73-53 win over UO at Tempe. It’s worth noting that HC Herb Sendek (recently rumored to be some hot water in Tempe) has benefited from the return to action of F Rihards Kuksiks (20 ppg last weekend vs. the Oregon schools) and G Ty Abbott relocating his shooting eye (22 ppg last week vs. the Ducks and Beavers).
Trend wise, since the Sun Devils broke their nine-game SU losing streak in mid February, they’ve actually won 3 of 5, and for all of the losing Sendek was doing in Pac-10 play, ASU is a decent 8-6-1 its last 15 on the board. Meanwhile, the Ducks suffered the humiliation of losing twice SU and vs. the line vs. ASU. Oregon also dropped its last 4 SU (1-3 vs. line) after a legit hot streak in which the Ducks went 6-2 SU and 7-1 vs. the line in an 8-game stretch from Jan. 22-Feb. 19.
College Basketball Knowledge
Big 12 Tournament (Kansas City)
Oklahoma State (+5) lost 65-54 at Nebraska Feb 12, shooting just 36% from floor; Cowboys are 0-8 on Big 12 road this season (1-7 vs spread), with five of eight losses by 11+ points-they covered one of last seven as a dog. Huskers lost three of last four games; they're 2-9 in first game of this tourney last 11 years, with both wins vs Mizzou. Nebraska is 4-4 vs spread as a Big 12 favorite- they're a bubble team that needs this W.
Home side won both Iowa State-Colorado games this year, with Buffs scoring 95-90 points in those games; Colorado is 5-4 in its first tourney games last nine years. Iowa State lost last five tourney games by 9-5-13-14-7 points. Cyclones are 0-8 on Big 12 road (3-5 vs spread), with five of last six road losses by 12+ points. Buffs won three of last four games, lost six of last seven on road, covered four of last five as a favorite.
Home side won both Oklahoma-Baylor games this season; Bears are 1-4 in last five games, losing six of last seven road games- they covered once in last five games as favorite. Sooners snapped 8-game skid with win in home finale vs rival Oklahoma State- Oklahoma lost last five road games (0-4 vs spread last four). Sooners lost in first round of this event in last two Big 12 tournaments, losing by 11-14 points.
Pat Knight is lame duck coach for Tech squad that lost 92-84 (+17) at Missouri Feb 15- Tigers shot 58% that day. Mizzou lost its last three games, but covered six of last eight when favored. Tech covered five of last six road games- they've won at least one Big 12 tourney game in 8 of last 9 years. How will Red Raiders react here? Mizzou lost first game in this tourney four of last five years, but only win was by 21 over Tech.
Big East Tournament (NYC)
Georgetown lost its last three games, scoring 48 ppg; they miss injured G Wright; Hoyas are 10-4 in this event last five years. Hoyas lost 78-70 at UConn Feb 16 (+2.5); Walker had 31 points, 7 boards, 10 assists that day. Huskies lost four of last six games, are now 1-5 in Big East tourney last five years, UConn is 2-6 vs spread in last eight tries as favorite.
Rutgers turned ball over 23 times in 58-56 loss (+8) at St John's Feb 2; they were outscored 20-9 on foul line. Red Storm won/covered seven of last eight games- they're 3-2 as Big East home favorite this year. Knights lost five of last seven games, with five of last six road games decided by 4 or less points or in OT- they beat rival Seton Hall in OT yesterday. St John's didn't play yesterday, so that helps them.
Cincinnati has to be happy Villanova got KOd, but how much have they prepped for South Florida? Bulls (+13) lost 74-66 at Cincinnati Jan 12, turning ball over 18 times (-11). Bearcats won/covered five of their last six games- they're 5-6 as a favorite. USF lost eight of last ten games, but covered 10 of last 15- they're 2-2 in Big East tourney, losing by 14-20.
West Virginia won this event LY but has struggled to score since Butler graduated; they lost 79-74 (+2) at Marquette Jan 1, as Crowder scored 29 points-- Eagles shot 52% from floor. Marquette is 4-4 in its last eight games, 7-4 in this event last four years; last night's win helped cement their at-large case. WVU lost three of its last four road games. Marquette got off to 17-0 lead last nite, beat Providence easily by 21.
Big Sky Tournament (@ No Colorado)
Home side won both Montana-Northern Colorado games this year, with games decided by 18-13 points. Montana won five of its last six league games, but they lost three of last five games away from home. Only once in last six years has #1 seed won Big Sky tourney; this is first Big Sky final for Bears. Montana is 3-0 in Big Sky finals last six years, rallying from 20 down at half to beat Weber State LY. Montana won nine of last ten games- they are 1-4 vs spread as an underdog this season.
C-USA Tournament (El Paso)
Marshall (-2.5) won 63-62 at Houston Feb 1, in strange game that saw Houston's Harris go 2-8 from floor, just 12-20 from line. Cougars faded down stretch, losing last six games (1-4-1 vs spread), with five of the six losses by 11+ points. Herd won one tourney game last six years, losing by 1-1-16 points last three years. Houston won four games to win this tourney in upset LY; they're 4-1 in first tourney game last five years.
SMU beat Rice twice this season, 75-68 (+5.5) on road Jan 29, 76-66 at home (-4.5) Feb 23. Mustangs lost last three games by 2-2-3 points, but did cover three of last four as a favorite. Rice lost six of last eight games; they're 5-7 vs spread as C-USA underdog, 4-3 in first tourney games last seven years. SMU is 0-4 in this event last 4 years, losing by 7-22-9-16- their last C-USA win was 61-59 over Owls in 2006.
Pac-10 Tournament (Los Angeles)
Oregon State benched five guys for missing curfew last game; not sure if that matters here. Beavers are 0-4 in this event last four years, losing by 19-31-8-7 points- they split pair with Stanford this season, with home team winning both times. Cardinal won its first tourney games last three years, by 11-8-9 points, but they finished regular season on a 1-5 skid. Stanford is 3-2 as Pac-10 favorite, Beavers 4-10 in last 14 as a dog.
Arizona State was just 4-14 in Pac-10 this season but beat Oregon twice, 60-55 at Mac Court Jan 1 (+1.5), 73-53 (-2) at home six days ago. ASU lost its last seven road games after the win in Eugene. Oregon lost its last four games, all by 8+ points, allowing 84 ppg; they're is 6-2 in their first tournament game last eight years; ASU is 2-6 in tourney openers- they are 3-1 vs Oregon schools this season, 1-13 against rest of the Pac-10.
Mid-Major Report
By Chris David
This column will provide daily betting updates from the Atlantic 10, Mid-American Conference (MAC) and Conference USA (CUSA) throughout Championship Week.
A10
The road teams stepped up in the first round, capturing three of the four matchups. St. Joseph’s 71-59 overtime victory against George Washington as an eight-point underdog was the biggest upset. This wasn’t the only A10 game that witnessed an extra session, the other being La Salle and St. Bonaventure. In that affair, the Explorers nipped the Bonnies 75-73 in double-overtime. Surprisingly, the game still slid ‘under the closing total of 150. Even though that game went ‘under’ the other three first round matchups jumped ‘over’ their numbers. The quarterfinals start Friday from Atlantic City, New Jersey.
MAC
First round action concluded with all four home teams winning in double-digit fashion on Tuesday. The favorites went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, with Ohio unable to cover its 19 ½-point number in its win over Toledo, 74-57. All four of the games went ‘under’ the number. Quarterfinal action sets up on Thursday at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland.
CUSA
First round action for the Conference USA tournament tips off Wednesday at the Don Haskins Center in El Paso, Texas. This conference could only get one team in the upcoming NCAA Tournament, which shows you how much the group has dropped. Memphis is no longer a powerhouse and the affects of the Big East defectors (Cincinnati, Louisville, Marquette) is starting to show. Looking at the future odds from Sportsbook.com below, you can see who’s expected to win this weekend. Those following this conference all year might tell you that the Field Bet (+160) is the best look. Houston cut down the conference tournament nets last year but Memphis captured the previous four titles.
Conference USA Odds
UTEP +125
UAB +250
Tulsa +700
Memphis +800
Field (Any Other Team) +160
CUSA – First Round
Seeds listed in parenthesis
(9) Central Florida vs. (8) East Carolina
Strange line here with UCF listed as a four-point favorite, especially when we know that East Carolina won both of the regular season encounters (74-62, 68-61). The Golden Knights (5-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) and Pirates (4-10 SU, 6-6 ATS) both struggled on the road this season. Each school went 3-1 down the stretch, but UFC’s three wins were by a combined 10 points. The winner will face top-seed UAB in the quarterfinals on Thursday.
(12) Tulane vs. (5) Southern Mississippi
This looks like a mismatch on paper and the oddsmakers agree, making Southern Mississippi an eight-point favorite. However, is it smart to bet on a Golden Eagles squad that enters the tournament with a three-game losing streak? If you take out the eight-point loss at Tulsa (70-78) on Mar. 5, the other two setbacks were both by one point a piece. Keep in mind that Tulane went 1-13 in its last 14 games, which is why it’s the lowest seed in this tournament. In the one encounter this season, Southern Miss beat Tulane 67-54 as a 10½-point home favorite. On deck for the winner will be fourth-seed Memphis in the quarters.
(11) Houston vs. (6) Marshall
Marshall has been tabbed the biggest first round favorite (-8.5) in this tournament and deservingly so. The Thundering Herd closed the regular season with a 6-1 run both SU and ATS, and the lone loss came at UTEP (74-82) in a tight contest. Marshall edged Houston 63-62 on Feb. 1 as a 2½-point road favorite. The Cougars have lost six straight and 11 of 12 heading into this tournament, which doesn’t present much confidence. The school has had trouble scoring all season and they own a dread 2-11 road record. Barring an upset, it looks like Marshall will get a chance to avenge the aforementioned loss to UTEP in the upcoming quarterfinals.
(10 Rice vs. (7) SMU
The phrase “Pick your Poison” comes to mind when looking at this game. SMU beat Rice in both regular season affairs, one of the victories coming in overtime. Neither team has much pop offensively, hence the ‘over/under’ listed at 123. Both teams enter this game with identical 1-3 records. Whoever comes out on top will face a much tougher test and likely loss to second-seed Tulsa on Thursday.