Picking On The Perfect Programs
By JASON LOGAN
An undefeated record through the first month of the college hoops season is as deceiving as that mystery present under the tree.
It could be the keys to a brand new car. It could be a Playstation. Or it could the same turtleneck/sweater combo you get every year.
You won't really know what it is until Christmas morning. Or in the case of college basketball's perfect programs – conference play. The non-conference schedule can give bettors the wrong impression. A lot of teams get fat on cupcake opponents while others pencil in some tough task to test their mettle.
Heading into Thursday, there are 11 programs with goose eggs in the loss column. Nine of them are from power conference, three of them are from the Big 12 and four of them call the Big East home.
Here's a look at some of these programs, how they have remained perfect and when bettors can expect them to take a tumble:
Kentucky Wildcats (10-0, 4-4 ATS)
The Wildcats have lived up to the hype heading into the schedule. Kentucky had some expected growing pains earlier in the year with close calls against lesser opponents but showed it is for real with wins over North Carolina and Connecticut. Outside of John Wall's media-friendly contributions, UK has a solid bench with seniors Ramon Harris and Perry Stevenson along with JuCo stud Darnell Dodson, who will be a star by the time he leaves Lexington.
Kentucky's toughest non-conference test left is a date with rival Louisville Jan. 2. However, the way the walls are crumbling in Freedom Hall, the Cats should give coach John Calipari his first win in this state war. The first speed bump for UK's young guns will be in the third week of January when the team comes off a Saturday game against Georgia and plays the next two games that week on the road at Florida and Auburn.
Texas Longhorns (9-0, 5-2 ATS)
The Longhorns are a talented bunch and is the deepest team at every position in the country. Texas gets even deeper this weekend, now that transfer Jai Lucas, a former Gator, becomes eligible for action. The Horns' perfect 9-0 mark is a bit of a illusion, though. They've trumped small-conference foes and got their only notable wins against Iowa and USC, two programs on life support, and a Pitt team struggling to replace its departed stars.
Texas has a monster of a game against North Carolina in the new Cowboys Stadium this weekend. The Horns matchup well against the Tar Heels' size and athleticism and have the edge in experience, which could pay out in a venue like Jerry World. If Texas gets past UNC Saturday, it faces Michigan State Tuesday – a team that has had the Horns' number in recent years.
Kansas Jayhawks (9-0, 4-2 ATS)
Rock Chalk looks like a contender for the national title. Kansas is off and running but like Texas, has feasted on a sugary non-conference schedule. The Jayhawks have wins over Memphis and UCLA, two programs that aren't what they used to be, leaving bettors to stare at 30-point spreads against teams like Hofstra, Radford and Tennessee Tech. This has left us with a blurry view of the nation's No. 1 team.
Chances are things will come into focus within the next few weeks. The Jayhawks have tough back-to-back games, versus Michigan Saturday and Cal Tuesday, before taking on a scrappy Temple team, who recently upset Villanova, and a huge matchup with Tennessee before Big 12 play begins. I could see KU start conference competition with a blemish.
Georgetown Hoyas (8-0, 3-1 ATS)
Finally, Greg Monroe is coming out of his shell. The versatile forward is starting to get a taste for scoring, giving the Hoyas the inside punch they need. With Monroe drawing defenders, Georgetown's talented backcourt of Austin Freeman and Chris Wright has room to operate. The Hoyas have wins over Butler and Washington in their last two outings.
Georgetown had better not take Ivy League foe Harvard lightly. The Crimson took UConn to the wire and beat Boston College last week. The Hoyas begin Big East play against St. John's on New Year's Eve. The Red Storm are an improved team that beat Georgetown at the end of last season, then again in the conference tournament.
Purdue Boilermakers (9-0, 5-3-1 ATS)
Purdue was everyone's sleeper pick to make it to the Final Four – if you can call the Big Ten's second-best team a sleeper. The Boilermakers have wins over Tennessee, Wake Forest and Alabama, and remained profitable despite losing starting guard Lewis Jackson to a broken foot. Purdue has good players but is a great team. These guys have been together for three seasons and know how to get the job done.
The Boilermakers open Big Ten play against lowly Iowa before facing West Virginia in what could be a battle of unbeatens. That's a perfect look-ahead spot for the Hawkeyes, who will probably cover as sizable dogs. The Mountaineers are just as gritty and defensive minded as Purdue and have better athletes.
Missouri State Bears (9-0, 7-2 ATS)
The Missouri Valley Conference is back with teams like Missouri State, Wichita State and Northern Iowa making waves. The Bears have been the best for bettors, taking wins over Auburn and Tulsa to open the year. Missouri State was the worst shooting team in the NCAA last year, but is making over 46 percent of its buckets, scoring more than 74 points a night and holding opponents to under 44 percent from the field.
The Bears face a very good St. Louis squad on the road this weekend and then travel to Arkansas to play the down-and-out Hogs. There is a good chance Missouri State could remain perfect heading into the New Year. January begins with two tough conference games against Illinois State and Northern Iowa – one Friday and the next Sunday.
Other undefeated programs: New Mexico Lobos (11-0, 9-1-1 ATS), Syracuse Orange (10-0, 6-1 ATS), Texas Tech Red Raiders (9-0, 3-1 ATS), Seton Hall Pirates (8-0, 2-1 ATS), West Virginia Mountaineers (7-0, 3-3 ATS).