2010-11 College BB Preview: No. 11 Florida
By: StatFox
#11 FLORIDA GATORS
2009-10 Statistics:
SU Record: 62% (21-13)
ATS Record: 52% (15-14)
Over (Total): 46% (11-13-1)
Points Scored: 72.2 PPG
Points Allowed: 66.4 PPG
Scoring Margin: 5.8 PPG
BACKCOURT
The Gators starting backcourt may be short on size, but it is long on experience. Erving Walker (12.6 PPG, 4.9 APG, 3.3 RPG) and Kenny Boynton (14.0 PPG, 2.7 APG) each started all but one game last season as Florida returned to the big dance for the first time since its championship season of 2007. Walker is only 5-foot-8, and sometimes can be a defensive liability. Boynton led the Gators in scoring last season, yet only shot 37.6% from the field. Coach Billy Donovan will have some needed reinforcements in the backcourt this season. Incoming freshman Scottie Wilbekin, a pure point guard, will be relied upon to fulfill a key role, subbing for Boynton and Walker and making sure that the exorbitant minutes the two guards logged last season (each averaged 32.9 MPG) will be reduced considerably.
FRONTCOURT
Alex Tyus surprised many in Gainesville when he withdrew his name from the NBA Draft. The 6-foot-8 Tyus (11.8 PPG, 6.9 RPG) will return to team up with center Vernon Macklin (10.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG) and small forward Chandler Parsons (12.4 PPG, 6.9 RPG) to give Billy Donovan three seniors who all averaged double figures in scoring on his frontline, a rare luxury in today’s college game. Macklin, a Georgetown transfer, shot 60.7% from the field in his first season playing in Gainesville. Parsons shot 35.8% from beyond the arc. Sophomore Erik Murphy is expected to contribute off the bench, as will incoming freshman and McDonald’s All-American Patric Young out of Jacksonville.
OUTLOOK
If there is a coach in the SEC who knows what its like to deal with high expectations, its Billy Donovan (no offense Coach Cal). Donovan returned an NCAA championship team intact to repeat as champs in 2007. This year Donovan has a team that will boast five starters who scored in double figures last season, three of them seniors. In addition, Donovan will supplement them with an incoming class of freshmen, highlighted by the additions of 6-foot-2 guard Scottie Wilbekin and 6-foot-9 forward Patric Young. Wilbekin is expected to allow Donovan to revive his pressing-full-court style of play, something he had to abandon as Walker and Boynton wilted under the weight of playing so many minutes per night. The only remaining question marks are how will the new talent mesh with the old talent, especially on a team that is so heavily fortified with seniors and juniors. Look for big early-season contests against Ohio State on November 16, and Kansas State December 18 (both ranked in the preseason Top 5) to give us an indication of whether or not the great expectations associated with the program are warranted. If this team performs up to the hype, an April trip to Houston could be in Donovan’s future.
Florida shot only 31.3% from beyond the arc, unusually poor for a Donovan team. That figure placed them 11th in the SEC. The gators were 13-4 SU at home, but only 6-7 at home ATS. As an underdog, Florida was only 5-8 SU but 7-6 ATS. The Gators were 5-5 SU and 6-3 ATS on the road.
2010-11 College BB Preview: No. 10 Kentucky
By: StatFox
#10 KENTUCKY WILDCATS
2009-10 Statistics:
SU Record: 92% (35-3)
ATS Record: 56% (20-16)
Over (Total): 54% (19-16)
Points Scored: 79.3 PPG
Points Allowed: 64.9 PPG
Scoring Margin: 14.4 PPG
BACKCOURT
One of the most high-profile jobs in college basketball belongs to the man who will play point guard for Coach John Calipari’s team. Considering that the last three young men who filled that role all became NBA lottery picks (and two of them were named Rookie of the Year), the next in line will garner more than a little attention. Brandon Knight, welcome to the show. Knight is a two-time Gatorade National player of the Year recipient. He is a strong passer who may not be quite as athletic as Derrick Rose or John Wall, but is probably a better shooter. Knight should be part of a three-guard backcourt with junior Darius Miller (6.5 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 21.2 MPG), Kentucky’s lone returning starter from last season, and freshman Deron Lamb. Junior DeAndre Liggins, a defensive specialist, will be part of the rotation. Calipari will also look to work in freshman Stacey Poole Jr. and sophomore Jon Hood for added depth.
FRONTCOURT
It won’t be easy replacing big men like Patrick Patterson and DeMarcus Cousins, both first round picks in the 2010 NBA Draft. Calipari will try and do just that with 6-foot-10 Enes Kanter from Turkey. Kanter is physical, long and the highest-rated power forward among freshmen in the country. Kanter has also seen some action with a semi-pro team in his native Turkey. Because of that, the NCAA has a key decision to make regarding Kanter’s eligibility and whether or not he will be allowed to play. Calipari hopes to start Kanter alongside of another freshman sensation, Terrence Jones, a 6-foot-9 banger who ranked as the #13 overall player in the 2010 class. JUCO transfer Eloy Vargas will provide some additional depth up front, along with Josh Harrelson, who will hold the distinction of being the only senior on this year’s team.
OUTLOOK
What do you do when you have the No. 1 recruiting class in the country that takes your team within a game of the Final Four, and then they leave early for the NBA? If you are John Calipari, you replace them with . . . the number one recruiting class in the country. Calipari has reloaded his lineup with a handful of new thoroughbreds who are ready to challenge for the SEC title and another national championship. For that to happen, the question regarding the eligibility of Enes Kanter must be clarified. What also must happen is Kentucky must be as complete on the defensive end as they were a year ago. The Wildcats led the SEC in FG Pct. defense (37.8%) and rebounding margin at +8.1 RPG. Combine that with an offense that produced a league-leading 79.3 PPG and you have a recipe for how to win 30-plus games and a conference title. But Calipari and his talented bunch still came up short. This year he hopes that the combination of talent and veteran leadership from returning starter Miller and reserve Liggins will help these “kiddie Cats” overcome the rough patches, such as last year’s Elite Eight loss to West Virginia, when the youth and inexperience finally seemed to catch up to Kentucky. A great early-season test for this team will come December 4 at North Carolina in a game that will feature two of the nation’s top recruiting classes, and the best freshman in the country not wearing a Kentucky jersey this season: Tar Heel forward and preseason All-American pick Harrison Barnes.
Kentucky was a perfect 18-0 SU at home last season, but just 8-9 ATS. Versus SEC competition they were 17-2 SU but only 10-9 ATS. After an ATS win, the Wildcats were 17-3 SU and 8-12 ATS.
2010-11 College BB Preview: No. 9 North Carolina
By: StatFox
#9 NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS
2009-10 Statistics:
SU Record: 54% (20-17)
ATS Record: 38% (13-21-1)
Over (Total): 33% (11-22)
Points Scored: 74.5 PPG
Points Allowed: 71.9 PPG
Scoring Margin: 2.6 PPG
BACKCOURT
Despite rumors that a transfer seemed imminent, junior Larry Drew is back to man the point for North Carolina. Drew (8.5 PPG, 6.0 APG, 2.7 RPG) struggled at times last season, but his stats are better than his critics would lead you to believe. Sometimes the greatest challenge he has endured in Chapel Hill has been trying to make Tar Heel fans forget just how dominant his predecessor Ty Lawson was. Drew came on during Carolina’s postseason NIT run. He should benefit from the addition of McDonald’s All-American Reggie Bullock, the knockdown perimeter sniper this team lacked last season (Carolina ranked ninth in the ACC in three-point shooting) and Kendall Marshall, another McDonald’s All-American who can spell Drew at the point. Streaky shooting senior Will Graves (9.8 PPG, 37.1% three-point FG) also needs to provide some relief. Returning sophomores Leslie McDonald (3.4 PPG) and Dexter Strickland (5.4 PPG) will look to build on humbling freshman seasons.
FRONTCOURT
Chapel Hill is wild about Harry. McDonald’s All-American Harrison Barnes has made history before even slipping into that Carolina blue jersey. Barnes was named a preseason All-American by the Associated Press, becoming the first freshman to receive that honor since the preseason picks were first made in 1986. The 6-foot-7 Barnes can score on the inside, from the perimeter and all points in between. He also should help the Heels on the boards. Expect Barnes to team up on the starting frontline with 7-footer Tyler Zeller (9.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 17.4 MPG) who needs to stay healthy for a full season, and emerging forward John Henson (5.7 PPG, 4.4 RPG). Justin Knox, a transfer from Alabama should also provide some depth.
OUTLOOK
There are a handful of gold standard programs in the country where the letters NIT just will never satisfy anyone at postseason time. Especially when you have averaged 31 wins per season the previous four years with an NCAA title to boot. North Carolina is one of those programs. Carolina’s 17 losses last season were a record for a defending NCAA champion, and that’s the kind of history Roy Williams wants no part of this year. Williams hopes that his top-5 recruiting class, highlighted by a trio of McDonald’s All-Americans, including preseason AP All-American Harrison Barnes, will turn things around in a dynamic way. But it can’t just be about the kids. Junior Larry Drew and senior Will Graves must provide poise and leadership in the backcourt. Tyler Zeller must stay healthy for an entire season. If he does, it will be a first for his career, and a boost to whatever success the Heels have in the paint. John Henson must also pick up where his surging game left off when the Tar Heels season ended in the NIT Championship game loss to Dayton.
Last season, Carolina posted some very troubling numbers. The Heels were 12th in the ACC in scoring defense, 11th in FT Pct., and shot the three-pointer as poorly as they ever have (33% three-point FG). There is plenty of room for improvement in Chapel Hill, and Williams believes he’s got the horses to get it done. Expect a November 30 road contest against Illinois, followed by a home showdown with Kentucky on December 4 to provide an early hint of whether this Carolina program will be contenders or pretenders in the national championship discussion. That’s NCAA championship discussion, not NIT.
2010-11 College BB Preview: No. 8 Purdue
By: StatFox
#8 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
2009-10 Statistics:
SU Record: 83% (29-6)
ATS Record: 44% (15-19-1)
Over (Total): 43% (13-17-2)
Points Scored: 70.5 PPG
Points Allowed: 61.3 PPG
Scoring Margin: 9.2 PPG
BACKCOURT
The story in the backcourt begins with E’Twaun Moore. The senior (16.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.7 APG) has led the Boilermakers in scoring for three straight seasons, and was the team’s top assist man as well. He will likely be joined in the backcourt by freshman Terone Johnson, a guard with a fullback body who can also score. Five-foot-9 junior Lewis Jackson only played 16 games last season, but had the highest assists-per-game average on the team (3.4) is an option, or sophomore Kelsey Barlow, who started 11 games last season. Sophomores John Hart, D.J. Byrd and junior Ryne Smith should also give head coach Matt Painter a plethora of offensive options to mix and match with.
FRONTCOURT
The attack on the frontline begins and ends with preseason All-American pick JaJuan Johnson. The senior (15.5 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 50.7 FG%) returns as the team’s leading rebounder and could rotate between center and power forward. He was also second in the Big Ten in blocked shots with 72. The Boilermakers will need all the offense they can get out of Johnson now that fellow senior Robbie Hummel (15.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG) will miss the entire 2010-11 season after re-tearing his right ACL in October. That’s the same injury that ended his season last February at Minnesota. He plans to take a medical redshirt this season. With Hummel out of the mix, Painter will have to lean on a trio of inexperienced forwards -- sophomore Patrick Bade (35 games, 7.3 MPG) and freshmen Travis Carroll and Sandi Marcius.
OUTLOOK
Only the cruelest of basketball gods would put such a burden on one player and one team. Robbie Hummel spent the entire offseason rehabilitating the right knee that robbed him and his team of challenging for a national title last year. Hummel was poised to return to the court this season with fellow seniors JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore to form a trio of talent that combined for 47.6 PPG last season. But on October 16, in the first practice of the year, the ACL of Hummel’s right knee tore again, and his season was over. Now the leadership mantle falls on the shoulders of Johnson and Moore, who will battle for spots on the All-Big Ten first team. Painter’s squad will draw upon a deep backcourt with a mix of size and athleticism, a frontcourt that is long on length, but short on experience, and the knowledge of knowing how to play and win big games without Hummel. Last season they made it to the Sweet 16 before losing to eventual champion Duke. No matter which Boilermakers take the court, they will know how to get in your grill. Purdue was second in the conference in scoring defense, and held opponents to a very impressive 39.9 FG%, but will need to improve on its poor rebounding numbers (-1.6 RPG, third-lowest in Big Ten) to get the most out of its efforts. They may not have the array of talent that they thought they would have this season, but they do have two of the best players in the conference, and a record of toughness and resiliency. These factors should serve them well as March rolls around, when the basketball gods are prone to throw some more adversity their way.
As a favorite, the Boilermakers were 25-5 SU, but only 11-18-1 ATS (38%). On its home floor of Mackey Arena, Purdue was 14-2 SU and 7-9 ATS. In conference play, Purdue went 15-5 SU, but 6-13-1 ATS.
2010-11 College BB Preview: No. 7 Kansas
By: StatFox
#7 KANSAS JAYHAWKS
2009-10 Statistics:
SU Record: 92% (33-3)
ATS Record: 44% (14-18-1)
Over (Total): 47% (15-17)
Points Scored: 81.6 PPG
Points Allowed: 64.2 PPG
Scoring Margin: 17.4 PPG
BACKCOURT
A three-year starter and one of the nation’s top freshman point guards will form the nucleus of the Kansas backcourt. Junior Tyshawn Taylor (7.2 PPG, 3.4 APG, 2.4 RPG) started in 25 of the Jayhawks 36 games last season, and could be one of the fastest players in the Big 12. Taylor will combo with Josh Selby, a 6-foot-2 playmaker out of Baltimore. Selby is being touted as the highest-rated point guard ever signed in the Bill Self era. As good as Sherron Collins was at the point, Selby is bigger, quicker, and in time maybe better, given his skill set. Selby will have a variety of weapons to involve in the offense just among the guards. Seniors Brady Morningstar (4.1 PPG, 2.9 APG) and Tyrel Reed (5.1 PPG, 47.3% three-point FG) will provide valuable offense off the bench. Mario Little, a senior who redshirted last season, could also work himself into a backcourt rotation that is deep.
FRONTCOURT
It’s never easy replacing a big man who leaves to become an NBA lottery pick like Cole Aldrich did last summer. Self is confident that the Morris twins will be up to the task. Six-foot-8 Marcus Morris (12.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 57.0 FG%) has an offensive game that is one of the most lethal in the conference. Lost in his improving numbers is his 37.5 FG% from beyond the arc. Twin brother Markieff came off the bench last year to average 6.8 PPG, and 5.3 RPG while shooting a very impressive 56.6% from the floor. With the taller Markieff starting in the middle, Marcus will be freed up to play power forward, a position that should help his offensive game considerably. Sophomores Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey should provide strength and length off the bench. With additional playing time this season, Withey’s shot-blocking ability could help fill the defensive void left by the departure of Aldrich.
OUTLOOK
They were 33-2, a No. 1 seed with a conference title and a 15-1 regular season mark earned in the brutal Big 12. They had NCAA Championship experience, playmakers on the inside and outside, size, speed, swagger, and Northern Iowa waiting for them in the second round of the tournament. Poof. Forty minutes later they were headed back home to Lawrence after one of the seminal moments of the 2010 NCAA Tournament. The shocking two-point defeat left many questions for Jayhawk fans. How to fill the holes left by the departures of early draft entrants Cole Aldrich and Xavier Henry, along with senior Sherron Collins left more questions for this season. But when you are Bill Self, overseeing a program that has averaged 31 victories over the past five seasons, you begin to answer those lingering doubts with talent. That depth of talent starts with the Morris twins, who will team up in the starting lineup to form a brotherly 1-2 punch that will be second to none. The twins combined for 19.6 PPG and 11.4 RPG last season. With both of them starting now, those numbers are sure to soar. Third year starter Tyshawn Taylor will continue to develop, but someone will need to fill that “Mr. Clutch” void handled so masterfully the past four years by the cool Sherron Collins. Self will turn to freshman Josh Selby to run his offense with the confidence that the star recruit can do it, and the hope that he will stay beyond his freshman year. This year’s team has a lot of impressive numbers to live up to. Kansas led the Big 12 in scoring, scoring defense, FG Pct., three point FG Pct., and rebounding margin en route to outscoring its opponents by 17.4 PPG. How good this year’s team is at matching last year’s performance, and how much they are motivated by the words “Northern Iowa” will determine how good their chances are of taking the floor in Reliant Stadium on the first Saturday in April.
While going undefeated at home (18-0 SU) the Jayhawks were 7-8 ATS. Against Big 12 conference opponents, Kansas was 18-1 SU, but 8-10-1 ATS.
2010-11 College BB Preview: No. 6 Villanova
By: StatFox
#6 VILLANOVA WILDCATS
2009-10 Statistics:
SU Record: 76% (25-8)
ATS Record: 56% (18-14)
Over (Total): 56% (18-14)
Points Scored: 81.8 PPG
Points Allowed: 72.8 PPG
Scoring Margin: 9.0 PPG
BACKCOURT
With the graduation of Scottie Reynolds and his 2,222 career points, head coach Jay Wright will turn to senior mainstays Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes to carry the scoring and leadership mantle for the Wildcats. Fisher (13.3 PPG, 3.9 APG) is the top returning scorer and assist man for Wright and hopes to repeat his 39.6% three-point FG performance from last season. Stokes (9.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG) will swing between the guard and forward positions. He also shot very impressively from beyond the arc (38.3%). Sophomores Maalik Wayns (6.8 PPG, 15.0 MPG) and Dominic Cheek (4.9 PPG, 2.5 RPG) each proved that they could fill it up last year coming off the bench. Wayns was named to the Big East All-Rookie Team.
FRONTCOURT
Villanova was expecting a major splash last season from 6-foot-10 Mouphataou Yarou, but a Hepatitis-B diagnosis forced him to miss seven weeks of the season, and limited his effectiveness and minutes in the 21 games he did play. This season, Wright gets Yarou (4.9 PPG, 3.7 RPG) healthy from day one, where he will man the starting center spot and move the feisty Antonio Pena (10.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG) back to the power forward slot. Sophomore big man Maurice Sutton looks to lend shot-blocking ability off the bench, while Isaiah Armwood and McDonald’s All-American JayVaughn Pinkston look to crack the rotation in a big way.
OUTLOOK
Last season Villanova won 20 of its first 21 games and were looking like a Big East team that would surely challenge for a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance. What happened after that is not exactly known, but something went missing from Jay Wright’s squad. Seven losses in its last 12 games were highlighted by a first-round loss in the Big East Tournament, and a first-round overtime escape in the NCAA Tournament over No. 15 seed Robert Morris. By the time 10th-seeded Saint Mary’s sent them home in the second round it was clear the needle on ’Nova’s gas tank had long since passed Empty. With greater depth, size and a blend of youth and experience (three senior starters), Jay Wright has the pieces in place for a seventh straight 20-win season and accompanying NCAA berth. The key is Fisher, who is poised to replace Reynolds with his own mix of penetration, playmaking, and perimeter shooting. Additionally everyone around the program is excited to see what a healthy Yarou can produce in the paint. Circle December 30 on Villanova’s schedule. That’s when the Wildcats will look to avenge their first loss of last season when they play crosstown rival Temple. What makes this contest must see TV? Simple: In Philadelphia, Big 5 rivalry games aren’t life and death. They’re bigger than that.
Villanova was 12-2 SU at home, and 8-5 ATS. As a favorite they were 21-6 SU, but 15-12 ATS. The Wildcats ranked 14th in the Big East in scoring defense (72.8 PPG), and 4th in rebounding margin (+4.7 RPG).
2010-11 College BB Preview: No. 5 Ohio State
By: StatFox
#5 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
2009-10 Statistics:
SU Record: 79% (29-8)
ATS Record: 51% (18-17-2)
Over (Total): 52% (17-16-1)
Points Scored: 74.1 PPG
Points Allowed: 61.5 PPG
Scoring Margin: 12.6 PPG
BACKCOURT
One of the big questions in Columbus is how much will Ohio State miss last year’s Mr. Everything, Evan Turner, running the point? Expect that hole to be filled by David Lighty (12.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 38.3% three-point FG) a man who literally does everything Thad Matta needs him to do for the team. Lighty will work in the backcourt with emerging star junior William Buford, the teams’ top returning scorer, rebound, and assist man. Buford (14.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.1 APG) also shot an impressive 38.3% from beyond the arc. The perimeter power does not stop there. Senior Jon Diebler (13.0 PPG) buried the three at a blistering 42% clip. Incoming freshmen Aaron Craft, Jordan Sibert and Lenzelle Smith Jr. should get an opportunity to battle for backup minutes on the point.
FRONTCOURT
Senior Dallas Lauderdale (6.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 77.3 FG%) is back to man the middle again for the Buckeyes, but the bigger news is the arrival of “Big Sully.” The 6-foot-9 Jared Sullinger from Columbus is one of the top three recruits in the nation. He is a wide body with great agility, ball-handling skills and superb hands. Either he and/or Lauderdale could play the power forward spot. Sullinger’s high school teammate J.D. Weatherspoon and fellow freshman DeShaun Thomas (another McDonald’s All-American) should find ample opportunity waiting for them on Coach Matta’s depth chart.
OUTLOOK
Normally seeing your league’s best player become the No. 2 overall pick in the NBA Draft would leave a coach a little bit weary about the immediate future. But with four returning starters (three of them double-digit scorers, and three of them seniors) buttressed by arguably the nation’s best recruiting class, Thad Matta is once again ready to compete for a title in the powerful Big Ten, with an eye toward advancing far beyond his Sweet 16 showing in last year’s tournament. Matta is excited about adding yet another high profile big man to his squad in Jared Sullinger, whose interior prowess should be the perfect complement to a team that shoots the three-pointer (39.0%) as well as any in the country. David Lighty will have to prove that he can man the point for Matta, but he’s made a career of coming through for his team whenever and wherever they need him most. The Buckeyes were the top scoring team in the Big Ten, and third in scoring defense. If they can maintain that standing and improve themselves measurably on the boards, (sixth in conference rebounding margin, OSU was out rebounded 36-23 in its season-ending loss to Tennessee) then Matta should be poised to accompany another superstar freshman center on a plane trip to the Final Four.
Ohio State was 17-1 SU (10-8 ATS) in home games. As a favorite, the Buckeyes were 27-2, but 16-11-2 ATS (59.3%). As an underdog playing on the road they were an identical 2-5 SU and ATS.
2010-11 College BB Preview: No. 4 Pittsburgh
By: StatFox
#4 PITTSBURGH PANTHERS
2009-10 Statistics:
SU Record: 74% (25-9)
ATS Record: 59% (17-12-2)
Over (Total): 52% (14-13)
Points Scored: 68.7 PPG
Points Allowed: 61.8 PPG
Scoring Margin: 6.9 PPG
BACKCOURT
The Panthers will look to challenge for a Big East title and more this year with a backcourt attack that will be triggered by guard Ashton Gibbs. The junior Gibbs (15.7 PPG, 39.0 three-point FG%) can be a streaky perimeter threat who was named the most improved player in the Big East. His 78 three-pointers tied for fourth-most in the league. Dishing the ball to Gibbs will likely fall on the shoulders of sophomore guard Travon Woodall (5.0 PPG, 3.2 APG). Woodall is the team’s best playmaker. Brad Wanamaker (12.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.7 APG) will log major minutes in a three-guard alignment, moving from small forward to shooting guard. Wanamaker can provide perimeter offense and inside slashing ability to compliment Gibbs’ assortment of three-point bombs and Woodall’s playmaking skills. Incoming freshmen J.J. Moore, Isaiah Epps and Cameron Wright will provide depth.
FRONTCOURT
Experience and work ethic will highlight the Panthers’ frontcourt this season. Gilbert Brown, who averaged 10.7 PPG and 3.2 RPG last season off the bench, looks to move into the starting lineup this season. Joining him on that frontline is fellow senior and returning starter Gary McGhee (6.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG) and Nasir Robinson (6.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG) who started all 34 games last season. The wild card in Pitt’s frontcourt could be sophomore forward Dante Taylor. The former McDonald’s All-American averaged 4.1 PPG & 3.7 RPG. If Taylor can develop his game and make the strides in the frontcourt the way that Gibbs improved in the backcourt last season, Pittsburgh could have that missing piece that it has been looking for in March.
OUTLOOK
The sum is greater than the parts. Every coach talks about it, every team aspires to it. But year in and year out it is the Pittsburgh Panthers who seem to embody the expression than any team in the Big East. Rarely do the Panthers ever seem to boast a top-10 or top-20 recruiting class rife with McDonald’s All-Americans, yet Jamie Dixon always finds a way, his way, to win with what he can get. In seven seasons, Dixon is 188-54 (78%). He has made the NCAA Tournament and won at least 10 Big East games in each of those seasons. This year Dixon returns four starters who all know the pain of coming close to a Final Four trip without actually getting there, as was the case in 2009 when Scottie Reynolds and Villanova defeated them in an Elite Eight heartbreaker. They also know what its like to overachieve, like last season when they finished second in the league despite being tabbed to finish ninth by Big East coaches. If the Panthers and their league-best 61.8 PPG defense cannot take that next step this year, it won’t be because they are unfamiliar with being in this position.
In eight years at the Petersen Events center Pittsburgh is 132-11, a .923 winning percentage. Last season the Panthers were 17-1 at home SU and 8-5-2 ATS (62%). As a favorite, the Panthers were 15-6 SU and 9-10-2 ATS.
2010-11 College BB Preview: No. 3 Kansas State
By: StatFox
#3 KANSAS STATE WILDCATS
2009-10 Statistics:
SU Record: 78% (29-8)
ATS Record: 68% (21-10-1)
Over (Total): 55% (17-14)
Points Scored: 79.7 PPG
Points Allowed: 69.8 PPG
Scoring Margin: 9.9 PPG
BACKCOURT
The success of Kansas State basketball will all begin, and in all likelihood end, with how successful preseason All-American pick Jacob Pullen is at duplicating his performance of last year. Pullen (19.3 PPG, 3.4 APG, 2.6 RPG) will receive even more attention this season as he moves over to the point for head coach Frank Martin. Pullen will need some help with the scoring slack. That help is expected to come from either sophomores Nick Russell, Martavious Irving or Rodney McGruder (3.9 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 41.9 three-point FG%). Incoming freshmen Shane Southwell or Will Spradling could also earn a shot at contributing. Out of these options, Martin expects to find those second and third scoring threats to make his backcourt complete, as well as complementing the superb Pullen.
FRONTCOURT
With transition often comes promotion. That will be the case up front for the Wildcats as last season’s Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year Jamar Samuels (11.0 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 23.2 MPG) prepares to move into the starting lineup. He will team with senior forward Curtis Kelly (11.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG) the team’s top returning player on the boards as well as its second leading scorer. Kelly stepped it up during K-State’s NCAA run, averaging 15 points and 5.8 boards over four tournament games. Freddy Aspirilla, a transfer from Florida International where he averaged 13.7 PPG and 9.2 RPG as a freshman two years ago, is eligible to play for the ’Cats. Wally Judge (3.3 PPG, 3.0 RPG as a freshman) is looking forward to increasing his numbers in his sophomore season.
OUTLOOK
In three seasons as the head man in Manhattan, KS Frank Martin has twice lead the Wildcats to the NCAA Tournament, averaging 24 wins per season. Last year’s second place finish in the Big 12 was the highest for the program since joining the conference. K-State ultimately was just one win away from reaching the Final Four. But if you think Martin is satisfied with his resume, think again. The fiery coach bemoans the fact that his team did not win the Big 12 and did not reach the Final Four. That’s the new normal these days in Manhattan: winning is an expectation, and so are championship dreams. With arguably the nation’s best guard in Jacob Pullen manning the point, it’s easy to believe that the Wildcats will play for conference championships, and then some, this year. Add to that the experience of Curtis Kelly and Jamar Samuels and the additional depth provided by newcomer Freddy Aspirilla and you can see why many believe this year’s team might be better. The sooner Martin finds out who will be the Robin to Pullen’s Batman in the backcourt, the better. Kansas State will play highly-ranked Gonzaga November 22 in the CBE Classic in Kansas City. A win there could set up a showdown with defending national champion Duke. Now that’s what we call an early-season measuring stick.
K-State was the ninth-best free-throw shooting team (66.8%) in the Big 12, and the eighth-best team (36%) when it came to shooting the three ball. Against non-conference opposition, Kansas State was 16-2 SU and an impressive 9-3-1 ATS. In neutral site games, the Wildcats were 8-3 SU, 5-4-1 ATS.
2010-11 College BB Preview: No. 2 Michigan State
By: StatFox
#2 MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
2009-10 Statistics:
SU Record: 76% (28-9)
ATS Record: 42% (15-21)
Over (Total): 46% (15-18-1)
Points Scored: 71.8 PPG
Points Allowed: 63.8 PPG
Scoring Margin: 8.0 PPG
BACKCOURT
The Spartans may have to wait a little this season before its experienced backcourt reaches its maximum potential. That’s because top point guard Kalin Lucas (14.8 PPG, 4.0 APG, 45.3 FG%) will likely not be at 100 percent when the season begins, still recovering from the torn Achilles tendon he suffered in last March’s second-round tournament victory over Maryland. Befitting the mentality of Tom Izzo’s teams, Durrrell Summers (11.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG) picked it up when Lucas went down. Summers started drilling the three-pointer with much greater efficiency (17-of-34 from beyond the arc over five games) as the Spartans got deeper into the tournament. Izzo hopes to keep Summers focused on a nightly basis. Junior Korie Lucious saved Michigan State’s season in the game Lucas was injured, drilling the three-pointer at the buzzer to beat Maryland, and keeping the Spartans on the road to the Final Four. With senior Chris Allen kicked off the team, Lucious should have many more opportunities to contribute clutch performances. Senior Mike Kebler and junior Austin Thornton will provide depth which could be more important than usual depending on the status of Lucas.
FRONTCOURT
If the success of a football team begins in the trenches, the success of an Izzo basketball team begins in the frontcourt, where the banging takes place. Having dropped a few pounds in the offseason, Draymond Green (9.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 3.0 APG) will be a lean mean Spartan machine in the paint. Last season Green was one of the best bench players in the nation. This year he may be the team’s best all-around player, with room for his game to grow. Delvon Roe (6.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG) started 30 games last year and hopes to put up bigger numbers with a move to his more natural power-forward position. Sophomores Derrick Nix and Garrick Sherman, along with freshman Adreian Payne, will battle for minutes at center. If one had to guess, whomever is most willing to sacrifice his body for that one extra rebound will likely earn the minutes, as well as the admiration of Izzo.
OUTLOOK
No basketball program in America is characterized more by its football persona than Michigan State. Looking back at the signature win of its 2010 tournament run might explain why. Michigan State lost its best player to injury as an upstart Maryland team tenaciously fought back. Before they had time to panic, Durrell Summers responded with his best tournament performance ever, and Korie Lucious’ buzzer-beating three-pointer saved the day. No excuses, just responses. When a teammate goes down, another one steps in and steps up. That’s the Izzo way. Its earned the program six trips to the Final Four in the past 12 years, with a seventh berth very possible. The Spartans will need to see Lucas regain his First Team All-Big Ten form, as well as keep Durrell Summers hungry on a nightly basis. The experienced, physical frontline will need to continue its development. If Green and Roe can dominate the glass and help State repeat its league-leading performance in rebound margin (+8.6 RPG), the Spartans D should shine. Do those things, and remind Tom Izzo when March arrives, and it should be first down and goal to go for a third straight trip to the Final Four.
The Spartans were the second-best shooting team in the Big Ten (47.1 FG%) but ranked 11th in the league in free throws (68.5%). On its home floor, State was 15-2 SU but only 5-11 ATS. As a favorite, Sparty was 23-5 straight up, but 11-17 ATS. They were 14-4 SU vs. non-conference opponents, but 6-11 ATS.
2010-11 College BB Preview: No. 1 Duke
By: StatFox
#1 DUKE BLUE DEVILS
2009-10 Statistics:
SU Record: 88% (35-5)
ATS Record: 61% (23-15-1)
Over (Total): 42% (16-22-1)
Points Scored: 77.0 PPG
Points Allowed: 61.0 PPG
Scoring Margin: 16.0 PPG
BACKCOURT
“Kyrie will be very, very good right away. There’s absolutely no question about that. He’s that good a basketball player”. Those are the words of head coach Mike Krzyzewski describing the freshman who will take over the point-guard duties for defending national champion Duke. No pressure there Kyrie Irving. The top freshman point guard in this year’s class should garner almost as much attention as preseason All-American pick Kyle Singler. While the scrutiny may not be a welcome dilemma, Irving will have a lot of weapons around him to ease his transition to the collegiate game. Returning wing Nolan Smith (17.4 PPG, 3.0 APG, 2.8 RPG, 35.5 MPG) continued his steady improvement and penchant for hitting big shots. Smith shot 39.2% from beyond the arc and scored 29 points in the Elite Eight victory over Baylor that sent the Blue Devils to the Final Four. Sophomore Andre Dawkins (4.4 PPG) was also potent from downtown, and should continue to offer a boost off the bench. Seth Curry (brother of Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry), will be eligible to play this year after sitting out his transfer season. A pure scorer while at Liberty, Curry could be an offensive X factor for Coach K.
FRONTCOURT
There were many people pulling for Kyle Singler (17.7 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 39.9% three-point FG) to enter the NBA Draft after Duke won its title last spring. We suspect most of those people were opposing players tired of trying to guard him. Singler is back to try and become that rare starter on a back-to-back NCAA Championship team. Joining him in the frontcourt will be the brothers Plumlee, Mason (3.7 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 14.1 MPG) and Miles (5.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG). While departed big men Lance Thomas and Greg Zoubek were effective, high-effort guys, the Plumlees bring more athleticism and finishing ability to those starting lineup spots. Bulked-up sophomore Ryan Kelly and freshman Josh Hairston will spell Singler and the Plumlees off the bench.
OUTLOOK
How does a defending national champion lose its leading scorer, three senior starters, and still come back the next year as a preseason number one? Well, for starters, this is Duke, and Mike Krzyzewski isn’t heavy-handed because he has a Type A personality. He’s heavy-handed because four championship rings can make your hand heavier than you think. If anyone knows exactly what it will take to earn championship ring number five, it’s Coach K. Krzyzewski’s one-two punch of Singler and Smith are as experienced and clutch as any combo in the country. The addition of brothers Mason and Miles Plumlee to the starting lineup should position Duke to play a faster, more up-tempo offensive style. Until he is tested playing under one of the most intense microscopes in all of collegiate sports, Kyrie Irving will be an unproven commodity. Nonetheless, when you are already drawing comparisons to former Blue Devil great Jason Williams before playing your first game, and your Hall-of-Fame coach believes in you, there must be something to the hype. Just for fun, block out Wednesday night, December 1 on your schedule. Michigan State travels to Durham to play the Blue Devils. Thankfully since college basketball is not a BCS monarchy, this is a great matchup fans can enjoy early in the season without fear of seeing the loser’s title hopes ruined by one loss. Who knows, this one just might be the undercard for the real heavyweight match to come next April in the city of Houston.
Duke was tops in the ACC in free throws (75.9%), three-point FG (38.5%) and rebounding margin (+6.2 RPG). Duke was a perfect 13-0 SU in neutral-site games, and a strong 9-4 ATS. The Blue Devils were just 5-5 SU (3-6-1 ATS) on the road, but at home, the Blue Devils were a perfect 17-0 SU, and covered 69% of those games (11-5 ATS).