Winners & Losers
The Gold Sheet
Mid-majors were the interesting storyline this past weekend in college hoops, not necessarily because of which teams won, but rather which of them lost.
Indeed, there was a developing consensus that several of the top mid-majors were just about ready to sew up NCAA at-large bids heading into the weekend, but Friday and Saturday turned treacherous for many of them. The fireworks started Friday night, when Siena took its first Metro-Atlantic loss of the season at the hands of erratic (but dangerous) Niagara, which recalled the glory days of Calvin Murphy in its 87-74 upset win over the Saints. That won't cost Siena (which took its first conference loss in the process) the MAAC regular-season crown, which it has sewn up, but gives the rest of the league a bit of hope for the upcoming conference tourney in Albany. It also could mean a bit of trouble for Siena's at-large hopes should it get upset at Albany, as the Saints' computer numbers are still not great, with losses vs. all of Siena's RPI-Top 100 foes. That could change in Saturday's Bracket Buster at Butler, a win in which would make Fran McCaffery's upperclass-laden troops feel a bit more comfy about their NCAA prospects when heading into the conference tourney at the Times Union Center beginning March 5.
Meanwhile, at Philadelphia Friday night, Ivy power Cornell suffered one of the shock losses of the season when getting popped by upstart Penn at the Palestra, 79-64, which made Saturday's trip to Princeton even more important than originally thought. A loss to the Tigers would have put the Big Red two games behind Sydney Johnson's bunch in the loss column, and meant that Cornell would have required help from elsewhere in the Ivies to catch Princeton and make the rematch at Ithaca a meaningful one on February 26. Jadwin Gym was rocking on Saturday night, and the Tigers even came out dressed in their normal road black uniforms for the home game, but Cornell squeezed out a nervous 48-45 win, holding the Tigers to just 36.4% shooting in the process. Although the win kept Cornell in control of its Ivy destiny, Princeton indicated it can play with the Big Red and should not be intimidated for the rematch two weeks hence. Prior to the Penn loss, some observers believed Cornell, regarded as the best Ivy team in a decade, might have NCAA at-large credentials should it have needed them. But the Big Red won't want to chance its Big Dance hopes on an at-large when it can take care of business the old-fashioned way by simply winning the league, which doesn't look as certain as it did a week ago.
Meanwhile, grinding Northern Iowa failed to wrap up the Missouri Valley regular-season crown when being ambushed by Bradley, 68-59, at Peoria on Saturday, but the bigger news was the subsequent Sunday suspension of 7'0 sr. C Jordan Eglseder, who will miss the next three games (including the crucial Friday night Bracket Buster vs. Old Dominion) after being arrested and charged with operating a motor vehicle while intoxicated. Valley observers are warning that the Panthers shouldn't assume anything from the Selection Committee, as they point out that Creighton won 26 games and tied for the MVC regular-season crown last season but lost in "Arch Madness" and was then banished to the NIT instead. We still think Ben Jacobson's Panthers are looking good for an at-large, but the loss at Bradley and especially the Eglseder suspension have come at a very inconvenient time.
We know from experience that late-season form can be a better barometer of what the Selection Committee might do with several "bubble" teams, and collective results down the stretch often do mean something. With that in mind, we offer some "winners" and "losers" from the past week.
Winner: Virginia Tech... The Hokies are now on a 4-game win streak and have won 7 of their last 8 after rallying late and gutting out an important 61-55 win over state rival Virginia on Saturday. VPI gets no style points for that win after shooting only 37% from the floor, but solid defense that held the Hoos to only 32.5% shooting (and only 3 of 18 beyond the arc) compensated. That makes two wins this season for the Hokies over UVa, and Seth Greenberg knows every little bit can help his team after being cruelly denied NCAA berths in recent years. The Hokies still have a problem with their computer numbers, which were not helped by a soft pre-league schedule and loss vs. the toughest non-ACC foe (Temple), but Seth's team is definitely trending upward now.
Winner: Richmond... Don't look now, but the Spiders have temporarily climbed to the top of the A-10 table after a very big 72 hours that saw them win on Wednesday at Rhode Island by 2 and then pop St. Bonaventure by 19 on Saturday. G David Gonzalvez led Richmond scorers in both games and also recorded a career-best five steals vs. the Bonnies. UR now takes a 6-game win streak into a pair of very winnable gams this week vs. Fordham & George Washington before getting 8 days off to prep for a major battle at the Cintas Center vs. Xavier on February 28. With the A-10 looking at sending 4 or 5 teams to the Dance, Richmond could almost cement an at-large bid by winning the league's regular-season crown.
Loser: Rhode Island... Like Seth Greenberg at Virginia Tech, Jim Baron has been denied Big Dance bids at the last minute a couple of times in recent years. But the Rams missed a golden chance to put a nice notch in their belt when getting whipped by 22 at Temple on Saturday afternoon. That could have been the sort of road win the Selection Committee would have noticed, but instead it marked URI's second straight loss after a tough midweek setback vs. aforementioned Richmond. The Rams need to stop the bleeding quick on Wednesday night against surging Saint Louis, which has jumped ahead of URI in the A-10 table. With the Selection Committee likely to go several teams deep in the A-10, the Rams cannot afford a fifth or sixth-place finish if they want to keep realistic at-large hopes alive.
Loser: Notre Dame... Close losses at Seton Hall on Thursday and home against St. John's on Sunday have the Fighting Irish looking more like an NIT than an NCAA entry at this moment. Moreover, Notre Dame was minus star frontliner Luke Harangody with a badly bruised knee in the loss vs. the Red Storm, and with Louisville, Pitt, and Georgetown in the queue, and Harangody's status still questionable, the Irish's NCAA at-large hopes could be officially buried by next week.
Winner: Louisville... Yes, we know the Cardinals could only manage a split of their trip to the Empire State. But by getting the results reversed (losing at St. John's before winning at Syracuse), it's the equivalent of converting a 7-10 split, with that shock Sunday win at the Carrier Dome having the potential to really come in handy with the Selection Committee. The Cards prevailed despite missing 21 triples and connecting on only 9 of 17 FTs while winning their third straight over the Orange since last season. But we still believe (as we have for the past two months) that Rick Pitino is going to be riding on the "bubble" all of the way to Selection Sunday.
Loser: Minnesota... By blowing a 12-point 2nd half lead on Sunday at Northwestern, the Gophers lost for the 6th time in 8 games and 7th in 10 outings, not the sort of down-the-stretch numbers that will impress the Selection Committee. And now without suspended PG Al Nolen, there looks to be little reason to believe Tubby Smith can turn things around in time for the Gophers (now 14-10) to do any better than the NIT. Wisconsin might officially put the sword to Minnesota's at-large hoes on Thursday night.
Winner: Weber State... In case you missed it, with rugged 6'8 sr. C Steve Panos scoring a career-high 29 points, the Wildcats won a crucial Big Sky showdown late Saturday night vs. Northern Colorado, 81-76, to take a 2-game lead in the conference race with just 3 games to play. And the reward for winning the Big Sky regular-season crown is greater than in most leagues, because the champ gets to host the post-season tournament, which now looks like it will almost assuredly be held at Ogden, where Weber State has not lost a conference game at the Dee Center this season.
Winner: Old Dominion... Avenging an earlier defeat at George Mason by popping the Patriots by 16 on Saturday at Norfolk, the Monarchs took another step closer to cementing an at-large NCAA bid, which they can go a long way to securing if they can beat Jordan Eglseder-less Northern Iowa in the Friday night Bracket Buster, a game that defensive purists should love.
Winner: New Mexico... Road wins at UNLV and Utah completed a big week for the Lobos, who now sit alone atop the Mountain West and can start zeroing in on a protected seed in the west. It would be no surprise if Steve Alford's Lobos rate as the highest-ranked western team when the polls come out later Monday.
Loser: UNLV... The Rebels had re-entered the rankings for the first time since December after last week's win over BYU, but losses at home vs. aforementioned New Mexico and then at San Diego State on Saturday will surely drop them from that list and have temporarily put UNLV's at-large hopes in some jeopardy. As a year ago, the Rebs are not getting much consistent production in the post, and the perimeter game featuring Tre'Von Willis was simply not hitting on all cylinders last week. The good news for Lon Kruger is that the schedule eases up considerably down the stretch for UNLV, although Wednesday's trip to Utah (which won earlier at the Thomas & Mack) will be no picnic. Don't forget that if the Rebs need it, they'll have one last hand to play in March when they will be hosting the MWC Tournament.
Loser: Florida... A bad week for the Gators, who followed up a tough midweek loss at South Carolina with an ugly home loss on Saturday night vs. Xavier. Hovering just above the Big Dance cut line heading into the week, Florida suddenly has some work to do to get back in the good graces of the Selection Committee. Games vs. Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky are still to come before the SEC Tourney at the Sommet Center (home of the NHL predators) in Nashville. Could Billy Donovan really miss the Dance for the third year in a row?
Loser: Saint Mary's... The Gaels' NCAA at-large hopes could have probably withstood the Thursday night loss at Gonzaga. Following it up with a Saturday loss at Portland, however, could severely dent SMC's at-large hopes. The Gaels can afford no more slip-ups (until, perhaps, the WCC Tourney final vs. those nasty Zags) if they want to keep their at-large hopes alive.