Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 12/15/18
Saturday’s games
Villanova beat Kansas 95-79 in Final Four LY; Wildcats made 12-40 on arc that day, but four of those starters are gone now. Kansas is 8-0 vs schedule #13; they’ve won two OT games, and others by 3-5 points. Jayhawks are experience team #285 that has top 25 wins over Tennessee, Michigan St. Villanova is 8-3 vs schedule #17; they lost last game to crosstown rival Penn, 78-75. Big X teams are 14-12 vs spread as home favorites this year; Big East underdogs are 10-10, 4-5 on road. Last four years, Big East teams are 9-7 vs spread when playing Big X teams.
Tennessee is 7-1 vs schedule #43; they beat Gonzaga on neutral floor Sunday- their only loss was in OT to Kansas on neutral floor. This is Vols’ first true road game; they’re experience team #54 whose eFG% defense is #38. Memphis is 5-4 vs schedule #87; they’re 2-3 vs top 100 teams, with losses by 9-20-11 points. Tigers are forcing turnovers 23.4% of the time. SEC favorites are 14-10 vs spread away from home, 3-1 in true road games. AAC home underdogs are 6-3 vs spread. Last four years, SEC teams are 19-15-1 vs spread when playing an AAC team.
Rutgers outscored Seton Hall 22-6 on foul line in 71-65 home win over the Pirates LY that ended a 4-game series losing skid. Scarlet Knights lost last two visits here, by 27-11 points. Rutgers lost its last three games after a 11-5-8 points after a 5-1 start; they’ve played schedule #102. Rutgers is experience team #309. Seton Hall is 6-3 vs schedule #67; they beat Kentucky in OT in their last game last Saturday. Big East home favorites are 10-18 vs spread; Big 14 road underdogs are 7-2. Last two years, Big 14 teams are 15-12-1 vs spread when playing Big East teams.
Kentucky is 7-2 vs schedule #294; Wildcats are experience team #352 that is turning ball over 20.8% of time. Kentucky s 2-2 vs teams in top 150, with wins by 12-17 points. Utah is 4-4 vs schedule #171; Utes are experience team #250 that is 0-3 vs top 100 teams, with losses by 9-22-15 points. Kentucky is rebounding 44.3% of its own misses, 2nd in country. SEC home favorites are 19-19 vs spread; Pac-12 road underdogs are 3-6. Last four years, Pac-12 teams are 10-6 vs spread as an underdog vs SEC teams, but are 1-3 this year.
Arizona State is 7-1 vs schedule #207; ASU is experience team #304 that lost its last game by 6 to Nevada on a neutral floor. Sun Devils are a top 10 rebounding team in country. Georgia is 5-3 vs schedule #310; Dawgs are experience team #247 whose subs are playing #6 minutes in nation- they’re 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 4-15 points. Pac-12 favorites are 9-8 vs spread away from home, 3-2 in true road games; SEC home underdogs are 13-14, 2-1 at home. Last four years, Pac-12 teams are 7-5 vs spread when favored against an SEC team.
Gonzaga lost national title game 71-65 to North Carolina two years ago; Zags are 9-1 vs schedule #21, winning only true road game, at Creighton- they’ve got five top 100 wins, beating Duke in finals of Maui Classic. North Carolina is 7-2 vs schedule #93; Tar Heels are experience team #181 that is 2-2 vs top 100 teams, losing to Texas/Michigan. Gonzaga is missing couple of guys, so their bench minutes are #329 in country. UNC subs a lot; their subs play minutes #50. ACC home favorites are 24-22 vs spread; WCC road underdogs are 9-9.
Cincinnati held Mississippi State to 30.2% from floor in 65-50 home win over the Bulldogs LY; Bearcats won their last nine games since an opening loss to Ohio St. Cincy is experience team #119 that forces turnovers 23.7% of time. Miss State is 8-1 vs schedule #221; Bulldogs are #175 experience team (#11 in MC) whose only loss was by 5 to Arizona State. SEC favorites are 14-10 vs spread away from home, 3-1 in true road games. AAC home underdogs are 6-3 vs spread. Last four years, SEC teams are 19-15-1 vs spread when playing an AAC team.
Davidson is 8-1 vs schedule #219; Wildcats are experience team #326 that has played schedule #320- they’re 2-1 vs top 100 teams, losing on neutral court by 21 to Purdue- both their top 100 wins are over Northeastern. Temple is 8-2 vs schedule #147; they beat UMass by hoop in last game Wednesday, Owls are experience team #109 that is forcing turnovers 22% of time (#41). A-14 road underdogs are 11-8 vs spread; AAC home favorites are 17-14. Last four years, AAC teams are 17-13-1 vs spread when playing A-14 teams.
Purdue beat Notre Dame 86-81 in last meeting, two years ago. Boilers are lost four of last six games after a 4-0 start; Purdue is experience team #202 that has played schedule #6 to this point. Notre Dame lost its last two games after a 6-1 start; all three ND losses are by 5 or less points. Irish are experience team #288 whose eFG% is #265. Big 14 favorites are 13-5 vs spread on neutral floor; ACC underdogs are 15-6, 4-4 on neutral floors. Last four years, ACC teams are 53-46-2 vs spread when playing Big 14 teams, 15-14 this year.
Butler beat Indiana 83-78 in last meeting, two years ago. Bulldogs are 7-2 vs schedule #153- they’re experience team #100 that split four top 100 games. Indiana is 8-2 vs schedule #79; they won last three games, by total of five points. Hoosiers are experience team #294 that is forcing turnovers 21.4% of time. Indiana is 4-2 vs top 100 teams, losing to Arkansas/Duke. Butler Big 14 favorites are 13-5 vs spread on neutral floor; Big East underdogs are 9-9 vs spread, 5-2 on neutral floors. Last two years, Big 14 teams are 15-12-1 vs spread when playing Big East teams.
BYU won its last three games after a 5-4 start; Cougars are experience team #147 that is 1-3 away from Provo, giving up 87.5 ppg. Cougars protect ball well but are shooting just 30.2% on arc (#286). UNLV lost its last three games, by 8-4-3 points, after a 4-1 start; Rebels are #185 experience team whose only top 200 win was 96-70 at home over #155 Pacific. UNLV is turning the ball over 23.7% of the time. WCC road favorites are 7-3 vs spread; Mountain West home underdogs are 4-6. Last four years, MW teams are 27-24 vs WCC teams, 4-7 this season.
St Mary’s won its last four games after a 3-4 start; Gaels are experience team #274 that plays tempo #333- they’re 1-4 vs top 100 teams, with last three losses all by 6 or fewer points. LSU is 2-3 in its last five games after a 5-0 start; Tigers are experience team #332 that 1-3 vs top 100 teams- they lost last game 82-76 at Houston on Wednesday. SEC favorites are 14-10 vs spread away from home, 3-1 in true road games; WCC underdogs are 17-12 vs spread, 0-1 at home. Last four years, SEC teams are 5-5 vs spread when playing a WCC opponent.
Belmont is 7-1 vs schedule #209; Bruins are experience team #290 whose bench is also playing #290 minutes. Belmont lost by 4 at Pac-12’s Washington LY; they swept pair of close games with local rival Lipscomb this year, their only top 100 games. UCLA is 7-2 vs schedule #199; Bruins are experience team #350 whose only two losses are to North Carolina/Michigan State, top 10 teams. Pac-12 home favorites are 18-16 vs spread; OVC road underdogs are 17-12. Last four years, OVC teams are 3-2 vs spread when playing Pac-12 teams; Belmont is 0-2 in those games.