Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 11/22/18
Battle for Atlantis
Oklahoma beat Florida 48-28 on boards, surviving 4-18 day on arc in 65-60 win over Gators on Wednesday. Sooners is #25 experience team that starts three seniors who are probably trying to prove they can win without Trey Young. Oklahoma is 4-0, playing pace #17- only two of their guys played 30:00+ yesterday. Wisconsin is 4-0 with top 100 wins over Xavier/Stanford, allowing 59 ppg; Badgers are #20 team in country in Minutes Continuity- their eFG% defense is #18. Big 14 favorites are 10-6 vs spread away from home; Big X underdogs are 2-0.
Virginia pounded on Middle Tennessee 74-52; they start four juniors and a soph, are experience team #228- they’re playing 2nd-slowest tempo in country, are forcing turnovers 24.5% of time. Dayton shot 63% inside arc in 69-64 upset win over Butler; Flyers are #280 experience team that played four starters 31:00+ yesterday- they’re shooting 61% inside arc while playing #304 tempo. Dayton starts two sophs, two juniors. ACC favorites are 12-7 vs spread away from home; A-14 underdogs are 7-11.
Florida split its first four games; they were held to 60 points in both their losses. Gators’ best win was over #193 LaSalle. Florida made 11-28 on arc (39.3%) yesterday, after going 17-65 (26.2%) in their first three games. Gators are #257 experience team that has forced turnovers 24% of time- only two of their guys played more than 28:00 yesterday. Stanford lost its last two games by 18-16 points; Cardinal is #339 experience team that started three sophs, couple of frosh yesterday. Stanford was 2-18 on arc yesterday; they played three guys 31:00+.
Butler is #88 experience team that never led in upset loss to Dayton yesterday; Bulldogs were 7-23 on arc, they start two juniors, two seniors, but Dayton shot 63% inside arc against them. Butler beat Ole Miss by 7 Friday; Rebels are coached by Kermit Davis, who coached Middle Tennessee the last 16 years. MTSU got whacked 74-52 by Virginia yesterday; Blue Raiders are 1-2 vs D-I teams, with losses by 19-22 points. MTSU is #274 experience team that starts only one senior- their only D-I win was by 3 over #230 Charleston Southern.
Advocare tournament, Orlando
Villanova lost its last two games, scoring 46-68 points vs Michigan/Furman; Wildcats are #195 experience team that is starting three sophs- they’ve turned ball over 21.2% of time, are making only 32% of its 3-pointers. Canisius is 1-2, losing last game by 32 at Florida State- they also lost at home to Albany. Golden Griffins start three sophs, two juniors, are #133 experience team- their eFG% defense is in bottom 10 in country. Big East favorites are 5-6 vs spread away from home. MAAC underdogs are 7-8 vs spread this month.
Memphis is 2-1, coming off double OT home win over Yale; their only loss was by 9 at LSU. Tigers are #151 experience team that is starting two frosh, two seniors- they’ve forced turnovers 25.9% of time in first three games, but made only 28.6% of their 3’s. Oklahoma State is off to a 2-1 start; they blew a 24-point lead in their loss. Cowboys are #332 experience team that starts two frosh, three juniors- they’ve turned ball over 21.2% of time, but also forced miscues 24% of time. Big X favorites are 6-6 vs spread away from home; AAC underdogs are 7-6.
LSU is off to a 4-0 start, with last three wins vs teams in top 125 (schedule #242- all the games were at home); Bayou Bengals are starting two frosh and a soph- they’re shooting 61.3% inside arc, only 29.8% on 3-pointers. LSU is #319 experience team whose eFG% defense is #260. Charleston is #237 experience team that is making only 23.9% of its 3’s; Cougars play one of 20 slowest tempos in country- their only loss was by 12 at Oklahoma State. CAA underdogs are 10-9 away from home. SEC favorites are 6-6.
Florida State won its first three games by 21-11-32 points, with an 81-60 win over Florida; Seminoles are experience team #101 that starts three seniors. FSU made 42.9% of its 3’s this month. UAB won its first two D-I games over Mercer/New Orleans by 8-7 points; Blazers made only 21.1% of their 3’s so far, 4th-worst in country. UAB is forcing turnovers 24.7% of time (#22); they start a frosh and two sophs; they’re experience team #212 whose bench plays very few minutes. Conference USA underdogs are 8-13 vs spread away from home.
Orleans Arena, Las Vegas
Southern Illinois split its first four games, with wins over teams ranked #344/296; Salukis are #17 experience team that was up 7 at Kentucky with 14:19 left (they lost by 12). SIU starts four seniors, one junior- they’re turning ball over 24.7% of time, but making 39.7% of their 3’s so far. UMass is 3-2 vs 5th-easiest schedule in country; Minutemen start three juniors and one senior- they scored 83+ points in their three wins, 71-63 in their losses. A-14 underdogs are 7-10 vs spread away from home; MVC favorites are 3-6 this month.
Nevada Wolf Pack isn’t too popular in rival UNLV’s town, but they’re 4-0 this season with all four wins by 16+ points. Wolf Pack are #2 experience team in county that starts five seniors; they’re eFG% defense is #15 in country. This is Nevada’s first road game. Tulsa is 4-0 vs the 4th-easiest schedule in country so far; Golden Hurricane is #132 experience team whose bench plays a lot (#22 minutes). Tulsa hasn’t played team in top 200 yet. Mountain West favorites are 7-7 vs spread this season; AAC underdogs are 7-6.
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas (good weekend for basketball in Vegas)
North Carolina is 5-0 vs schedule #226; best team they’ve played is #100 Stanford, their closest win was by 11 at Elon. Tar Heels are playing tempo #11; the bench is playing 10th-most minutes in country, but Texas is by far best them they’ve played. Longhorns are 4-0 with three wins over stiffs and an OT win over Arkansas on a neutral floor; Texas is #254 experience team whose bench is playing #52 minutes- they’ve made only 29.3% of their 3’s so far. ACC favorites are 12-7 vs spread away from home; Big X underdogs are 2-0.
Michigan State lost its opener by 5 to Kansas on neutral floor, then won last three games by 24-21-68 points- none of those teams are ranked in top 200. Spartans are #100 experience team whose bench is playing #77 minutes- their eFG% defense is #29 in country. UCLA lost two of its freshmen to injury; they’ve beaten four stiffs to start season (schedule #324). Bruins are #351 experience team; they’re tallest team in America, but they only load Presbyterian by 3 with 7:40 left in their last game Monday, which is a red flag.
Cal-State Fullerton tourney
Hawai’i is off to a 3-1 start, losing by 17 at home to North Texas in their only game vs a top 200 team; Rainbows are #121 experience team that is starting three seniors; their opponents have made only 23.2% of its 3’s so far this month. lost by 9 at Minnesota and beat on a couple of stiffs (schedule #344); Utes are #227 experience team whose bench is playing #19 minutes- they’ve made 39.5% of their 3-pointers. Pac-12 favorites are 7-3 vs spread away from home; Big West underdogs are 9-11 vs spread.
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