NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, January 30th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
Duke rallied back from 10 down at half to win 85-83 at Wake Forest Saturday; they’re 3-3 since Krzyzewski had his back operation (1-5 vs spread). Blue Devils are 1-3 on ACC road, 1-3 vs spread, with losses by 14-16-9 points. Notre Dame lost three of last four games after a 16-2 start; they’re 3-1 as home favorites, winning in South Bend by 7-5-18 points. Irish lost Saturday on a last-second layup at Ga Tech. Notre Dame won five of its last six games with Duke, including OT win in ACC tourney last March; Blue Devils lost by 2-4 points in last two visits here. ACC road teams are 9-7-1 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Coastal Carolina lost 90-69 in Arlington Dec 31; Mavericks made 15-38 on arc in teams’ first Sun Belt meeting. Tex-Arlington won/covered its last four games; they’re 2-2 on Sun Belt road, with wins by 6-16 points and losses at Texas St/Troy. Mavericks are playing fastest tempo in Sun Belt, forcing turnovers 21.7% of time. Coastal Carolina lost its last three games by 20-11-2 points after starting out 4-1 in its first Sun Belt season; Chanticleers are 3-1 at home, with only loss to Texas St by a basket. Sun Belt road favorites of 5 or less points are 5-5 vs spread.
Appalachian State won three of five Sun Belt games with Texas State, winning 67-64/76-56 in last two played here; they lost 67-58 at TSU Dec 31, game they trailed by 16 at half. ASU is 1-2 at home in Sun Belt, upsetting Arkansas St but losing other two games, by 8-16 points. Texas State won three of last four games, is 2-1 on Sun Belt road, with all five games decided by 5 or less points. Bobcats are forcing turnovers 22% of time, but making just 29.9% on arc while playing slowest game in conference. Sun Belt home favorites of 4 or less points are 3-6.
Georgia Southern lost at South Alabama Saturday after starting Sun Belt play 7-0; Southern is 2-4 as a Sun Belt favorite, 2-1 SU on Sun Belt road, with wins by 5-2 points. Eagles won last three games with Troy by 5-6-4 points- they beat Trojans 93-88 in OT Jan 9, despite going 24-26 on line, 9-28 on arc. Troy lost three of its last four games; they’re 1-2 at home in league, losing by 4-6 points. Troy is making 43% on arc but is turning ball over 20.6% of time in league games. Sun Belt home favorites of 4 or less points are 3-6 against the spread.
Georgia State won/covered its last five games; they’re 3-1 on Sun Belt road, winning by 8-15-6 points- Panthers are 2-0 as a road favorite. State is 6-1 vs South Alabama in Sun Belt games, but lost by 1 in OT here LY; they beat Jaguars 78-77 (-6.5) at home Jan 7, outscoring Jaguars 8-0 over last 1:35 of game. USA snapped 3-game skid with upset of 1st place Ga Southern Saturday; Jaguars are 3-1 at home, with only loss to Tex-Arlington by 6- their home wins are by 1-5-12 points. Sun Belt road favorites of 5 or less points are 5-5 vs spread.
UL-Monroe blew 10-point lead with 10:49 left in 79-75 loss at Little Rock Dec 31. ULM is 5-3 in last eight series games- they won last three series games here, by 16-12-4 points. UALR lost four of last five games overall; they lost last two road games, by 3-6 points. Road team is 7-1 vs spread in Little Rock’s conference games. ULM is 0-8 in Sun Belt, 4-4 vs spread; their home losses are by 8-2-10 points. Little Rock is turning ball over 20% of time on conference games. Sun Belt road favorites of 5 or less points are 5-5 against the spread.
UL-Lafayette won six of last eight games with Arkansas State, winning last nine meetings in Lafayette; they lost 74-71 at Arkansas St Dec 31- ASU shot 58.5% inside arc. ULL is 2-2 on Sun Belt road; favorites covered three of the four games. ASU won its last four games; they’re 4-0 at home in league, 2-2 as home favorite, winning by 3-31-2-12 points. ASU is shooting 40.9% on arc (#2 in league). ULL has worst eFG% defense in conference. Sun Belt home favorites of 4 or less points are 3-6 vs spread. ULL forward Washington is ?able here.
Oklahoma lost its last three games, getting blasted 84-52 at Florida Saturday after losing last two games in Big X by 1-5 points; Sooners are 1-3 at home in Big X, with only win by 9 over Texas Tech. Oklahoma State won its last three games by 19-13-28 points; they’re 1-3 on Big X road, with only win over Tech. Underdogs covered all four of their Big X road games. Oklahoma won its last seven games with Oklahoma State, winning last 12 rivalry games in their own gym. Big X road teams are 8-3 vs number in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Mercer won its last two games by 20-16 points; they covered seven of last eight games. Bears are 2-0 as home favorites, winning home games by 18-16 points, but also losing at home to East Tennessee/Chattanooga. Western Carolina is 4-1 in SoCon games with Mercer after they lost 70-50 (+11) at home to the Bears Jan 21. Mercer made 11-24 on arc in game they led by 20 at the half, but WCU beat Bears by 4-7 points in last two visits to Macon. Western is 1-3 as a road underdog. Double digit home favorites are 7-9 vs spread in SoCon games this season.
Monmouth won its last seven game, covering three of last four; they’re 2-2 as road favorites (3-1 SU) with road wins by 19-7-4 points. Monmouth won its last five games with Marist, winning last two visits here, by 7-26 points; they beat Red Foxes 71-64 at home in first meeting this year, using +10 turnover margin to offset 5-20 shooting on arc. Marist lost six of its last seven games; they’re 0-3 vs spread in last three games, losing by 18-16-10 points- they’re 1-2 as road underdogs. Double digit favorites are 5-6-1 in MAAC games this year, 1-0 on road.
Rider lost five of its last six games, losing last four road tilts by 3-10-5-13 points. Broncs are 1-2 as road underdogs. Canisius lost three of last four games; they’re 4-1 at home in MAAC, 2-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 3-6-33-14 points and a loss to Monmouth. Rider won three of last four games with Canisius; teams split last four series games played here. Broncs are turning ball over 19.4% of time, shooting just 63% on line in MAAC. Canisius has worst eFG% defense in MAAC. MAAC home favorites of 7+ points are 9-12-1 vs spread this season.
Siena is 2-4 on road in MAAC, winning two of last three road games after starting season 0-10 in all road games. Saints are 2-6 vs spread as a MAAC favorite, 1-2 on road. Siena won five of last six games with Quinnipiac, winning two of last three visits here; they beat the Bobcats 81-74 in first meeting Jan 12 in Albany. Quinnipiac won/covered its last four home games; their only home loss was by 19 to Monmouth. Last four series games were all decided by 10+ points. MAAC road teams are 11-6 vs number in games where spread was 3 or less points.
Belmont is 9-0 in OVC, covering five of last six games; they’re 1-2 as home favorites, despite winning by 12-17-12 points. Bruins have game at Murray State on deck. SIUE is 0-9 in OVC, losing home games by 6-2-8-20 points; they’re 0-2 as home underdogs, 3-4 as OVC underdogs. Belmont is 4-0 vs SI-Edwardsville in OVC games, winning by 30-4 points in two games played here. Belmont is shooting 42.2% on arc in OVC tilts. SIUE is turning ball over 23% of time in OVC games. Double digit favorites are 0-9 vs spread in OVC games this season.
Wm & Mary won three of last four games; they upset first-place UNCW Saturday. W&M is 4-0 at home in CAA with wins by 3-1-24-18 points; underdogs covered three of the four games. Tribe won four of last six games with Drexel, but Dragons won by 14-5 points in last two visits here- road team won last five series games. Drexel lost three of last four games, is 1-3 as a CAA road underdog, with road losses by 11-17-20-13 points. Double digit home favorites are 7-2 against the spread in CAA games this season.
Armadillosports.com
NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Duke at Notre Dame
Noter Dame Fighting Irish (17-5, 10-5-1 ATS) host Duke Blue Devils (16-5, 8-12 ATS) in an ACC game that will take place Monday night in South Bend.
The Irish unable to solve defensive minded Cavaliers on Tuesday netting 54 points, then dropping just 60 against a weaker Georgia Tech defense on Saturday will be looking to halt a two game skid. Irish losing their way on the offensive end have an uphill battle vs. coach K's troops who are no slouches at putting the ball through the hoop (83.0) with Luke Kennard (20.4) leading five players in double digit scoring.
However, home court will play a big roll in Irish bouncing back. They're 12-1 in front of the home audience cashing five of seven lined games. Irish are also 11-3 last fourteen off a loss going 8-4-1 in lined games. Additionally, Blue Devils haven't been a peg to hang your hopes on in true road games going 1-4 ATS this season, 4-7-1 ATS the past twelve. The most compelling numbers in Notre Dames's favor, the Fighting Irish are 5-1 SU/ATS vs Blue Devils.
Evidence is the key in making any case, and the numbers above illustrate Notre Dame is the right choice. As always best of luck.
Monday's Tip Sheet
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
The final Monday of college basketball in the month of January should be a good one on ESPN with a double-header of action in the ACC and the Big 12 as part of its Big Monday schedule.
First off in the ACC, the Duke Blue Devils will go on the road to tangle with the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame in a showdown between two teams in the mix for the regular season conference title.
Later on Monday night, state bragging rights will be on the line in the Big 12 when the Oklahoma State Cowboys clash with the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman.
No. 17 Duke Blue Devils at No. 14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Opening Odds: Notre Dame -1, 154½
Betting Matchup
The Blue Devils come into the game with a straight-up record of 2-3 in their last five games while going a costly 1-5 against the spread in their last six outings. They did get past Wake Forest 85-83 this past Saturday on the road, but they could not cover as 6½-point favorites. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last eight games. Overall, Duke is 16-5 SU with a losing 8-12 record ATS.
Sophomore guard Luke Kennard went off for 34 points in Saturday’s win to raise his team-high scoring average to 20.4 points a game. Junior guard Grayson Allen added 19 points and six rebounds to the winning cause.
The Blue Devils are averaging 83 points a game and at the other end of the court they are allowing an average of 67.8 points.
Notre Dame has lost three of its last four games SU following a 5-0 start in ACC play. Its latest setback was a 62-60 road loss to Georgia Tech this past Saturday as a seven-point favorite.
Despite failing to cover in their last two games, the Fighting Irish (17-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) are still a healthy 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last six outings.
Senior forward VJ Beachem scored 23 points while going 10-for-16 from the field in Saturday’s loss. Junior forward Bonzie Colson continues to lead the team in scoring with an average of 15.5 points per game, but he has failed to hit that average in four of his last five games.
Betting Trends
The Blue Devils are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games played on Monday and they have failed to cover ATS in their last four games on the road. The total has gone OVER in all four of those road games.
The Fighting Irish are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 home games and they have covered in six of their last seven Monday games. The total has stayed UNDER in 21 of their last 29 games following a SU loss.
Head-to-head in this ACC tilt, the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and the total has gone OVER in five of the last eight games.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Oklahoma Sooners
Opening Odds: Oklahoma State -1, 164½
Betting Matchup
Both of these teams are bringing up the rear in the Big 12 this season at 2-6 SU, but the Cowboys are currently riding a three-game winning streak (SU and ATS) following Saturday’s 99-71 nonconference victory against the SEC’s Arkansas Razorbacks as 7½-point home favorites. They are now 5-2 ATS in their last seven games with the total going OVER in four of those contests.
Oklahoma State (13-8 SU, 10-7 ATS) is ranked fifth in the nation in scoring with an average of 88.4 PPG and defensively it is allowing an average of 78.8 points a game. Sophomore guard Jawun Evens leads the team in both points (18.1) and assists (5.5). He posted 16 points, seven rebounds and eight assists in Saturday’s win.
The Sooners have lost their last three games SU as part of a 2-10 record over their last 12 games. They have gone 6-5-1 ATS during this same span and the total has gone OVER in five of their last seven contests. Oklahoma is now 8-12 SU on the year with a 10-7 record ATS following an 84-52 blowout loss to Florida as a 2½-point home underdog in Saturday’s Big 12/SEC Challenge.
Senior guard Jordan Woodward leads the team in scoring with 16.2 PPG, but he was benched for most of the second half against the Gators following a 0-for-7 shooting performance from the field. The Sooners have given up an average of 83.8 PPG in their last six outings.
Betting Trends
The Cowboys are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU win and they have covered ATS in four of their last five road games. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven games on the road.
The Sooners are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games, but they have gone 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss. The total has gone OVER in 12 of their last 17 Monday games.
The home team in this in-state rivalry has covered ATS in four of the last five meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in the last four games between the two.
Trends to Watch - Monday
VegasInsider.com
Belmont has won 11 straight games and eight of those decisions have come by double digit digits. The Bruins have gone 7-4 against the spread during this span.
Monmouth brings a seven-game winning streak into Monday and the school has gone 4-3 ATS in the last seven.
Skidding Down
Louisiana Monroe has dropped eight straight contests and hasn’t captured a win since defeating Grambling State in a non-board game on Dec. 28. The school has gone 0-3 at home over this drought with losses coming by 8, 2 and 10 points.
Burning Money
Duke is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games despite going 6-4 straight up. During this skid, the Blue Devils have gone 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS on the road.
Drexel has gone 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games. The Dragons have been outscored by double digits in four of their last five games outside of Philadelphia and that’s led to a 0-5 both SU and ATS mark during this span.
Home Sweet Home
Notre Dame has posted a 12-1 record in South Bend this season while producing a 5-2 ATS mark in board games.
William & Mary has gone 9-0 at home this season, which includes a 4-0 mark in conference play.
Louisiana Lafayette started its season 8-0 at home but the school has gone 1-2 in its last three at home and is 0-4 ATS in the last four.
Total Notes
Duke has watched the ‘over’ go 7-1 in eight conference games this season.
The 'under' has cashed in four straight and five of the last six head-to-head meetings between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
Monday's Best Bet
By Sportsbook.ag
Duke Blue Devils vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Duke (-1); Total set at 153
The Duke Blue Devils are doing everything they can to remain in the ACC race with head coach Mike Krzyzewski on the shelf, but with a 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS record since he left, bettors aren't impressed at all with this team. It took a tremendous comeback late to beat Wake Forest as 6-point favorites over the weekend, as a 3-point shot by Luke Kennard with 6.6 seconds left proved to be the difference in the 2-point win. That was the second straight close game for the Blue Devils in contests that weren't projected to be close, as they were upset 84-82 as 16.5-point chalk vs. N.C. State prior to that.
Tonight's game at Notre Dame is expected to be close and as of now it's not surprising to see the majority of bettors finally learning their lesson with this Duke team and going the other way.
Yet, the key to being a winning sports bettor is to be ahead of the curve and not reactionary to it. VegasInsider.com shows about 65% of bets on the spread siding with the Irish and over 80% of the ML wagers coming their way as well. Given the recent play by Duke those percentages aren't surprising, but this line also opened up as a pick'em and has moved in Duke's favor despite the majority of support going the other way.
That should set off at least one red flag for you as you handicap this game, and others should follow when you see the Irish have lost two straight games (both as favorites) and three of their last four. Notre Dame is really having trouble scoring the ball right now and they'll have to correct that in a hurry tonight if they want to win at home.
However, while the point spread has seen significant movement already for this game, the same can be said for the total. Tonight's total opened at 154.5 and even with nearly 90% of the bets coming in on the high side so far, the number has dropped a 1.5 points. Notre Dame's offensive woes have much to do with that, but Duke hasn't been great offensively against the top tier teams in the ACC as well.
The Blue Devils did put up 80+ in their last two outings, but the Irish will want to slow things down a bit on their own floor and make Duke work every possession. A reverse line move like this is arguably more telling than the one on the point spread because the percentage of bets on the one side is much more significant.
Therefore, don't be shy about siding with this move on the total as 150+ points is still a big number for college basketball. Notre Dame has cashed 'under' tickets in four of their last six outings, and they are on a 8-21 O/U run after losing outright, a run that includes a 3-10 O/U mark after failing to cover the spread.