NCABB Betting News and Notes Thursday, February 2nd, 2017

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Wm & Mary won its last three games, scoring 95.3 pts/game; Tribe is 5-0 at home in CAA, 2-2 as a home favorite, winning by 3-1-24-18-23 points. Northeastern lost four of last five games, is 0-2 as a road underdog- they lost last three road games, by 7-7-5 points. Huskies whacked Wm & Mary 84-64 in first meeting Dec 31; they were up 24 at the half. Tribe is 5-3 in last eight series games, winning last last three played here, by 14-16-18 points. CAA home favorites of 5 or less points are 7-4 against the spread.

NC-Wilmington won its last eight games with Charleston; they beat Cougars 65-59 on road in first meeting Jan 19, in brickfest where teams were combined 10-45 on arc. Charleston lost its last three visits here, by 2-13-10 points. Seahawks had 9-game win streak snapped in last game; they’re 2-2 as home favorite, winning home tilts by 16-24-8-13 points. Charleston is 4-1 on CAA road, losing by 6 at Towson; they’re 0-2 as a CAA underdog this season. CAA home favorites of 7+ points are 11-4 vs spread.

Michigan State lost three of last four games, losing last three on foreign soil by 9-5-7 points; Spartans are 3-2 in games with spread of 4 or less points. Nebraska snapped 5-game skid in last game; they’re 2-2 at home in Big 14, beating Iowa/Purdue, losing to Northwestern/Ohio State. Huskers won their last three games with Michigan State by 9-1-2 points; Spartans won two of last three visits here- road team is 4-3 in series games. Big 14 home teams are 7-9 vs spread in games with spread of 2 or less points.

Louisiana Tech lost its last two games; they’re 3-2 at home, 3-1 as home favorite, winning by 20-10-24 on its home floor, with losses to UAB/UTSA. Western Kentucky won its last couple games, but lost last three road games, by 18-15-14 points. WKU is 0-3 vs spread as a road underdog. Home side won both Western Kentucky-Louisiana Tech games in C-USA; Hilltoppers lost 69-56 in last visit here, in 2015. Tech is forcing turnovers 21.5% of time in C-USA games. Double digit favorites are 10-8 vs spread in C-USA games, 7-6 at home.

Utah won three of last four games, is 3-1 on Pac-12 road, winning last three away games by 6-41-22 points- they’re 1-1-1 as a Pac-12 dog. Cal Bears won five of last six games; they’re 2-3 as a home favorite, with home wins by 16-10-4-11 points and a 67-62 loss to Arizona. Utah won four of last six games with California, but they lost three of last four visits here. Utes beat Cal 82-78 in Pac-12 tourney LY. Utes are shooting 59.3% inside arc in conference games. Pac-12 favorites of 3 or less points are 1-6 vs spread this season.

Santa Clara is on road for first time in 19 days; they’re 2-2 on WCC road, beating San Diego/Portland by 2-14 points, losing at BYU/LMU. Broncos won their last three games with Portland by 7-6-28 points; they pounded the Pilots 70-42 in first meeting Jan 5; Broncos made 14-32 on arc in that game. Portland lost its last eight games; their PG is out for the year; Pilots are 1-2-1 as a home underdog, losing home games by 19-41-1-16 points. Santa Clara won three of last four visits here. WCC road favorites of 6 or less points are 2-3-3 vs spread this season.

San Diego won 69-62 at Loyola Marymount two weeks ago, despite a -11 turnover ratio (18-7); teams split last eight series games. Lions lost last four visits to the Slim Gym, by 8-7-9-8 points- they were 11-26 on foul line in game at USD. Toreros are 1-3 at home in WCC, losing by 2-17-3 points with win over BYU. LMU lost three of last four games; they’re 1-4 on WCC road, 2-1 as a road dog, with losses by 1-38-1-8 points. Three of LMU’s five WCC road games were decided by a single point. WCC favorites of 3 or less points are 2-4-2 vs spread.

Gonzaga is 8-2 vs spread in WCC games, 4-1 as a road favorite, winning by 20-15-9-31-47 points on foreign soil. Gonzaga is 10-3 in last 13 games with BYU, with two of three losses at Gonzaga; Zags beat BYU in 4 of last 5 WCC tourneys- they’re 3-1 in last four visits to Provo, winning by 5-7-3 points. BYU won three of last four games, is 5-0 at home in WCC; their WCC losses are by 13 at St Mary’s, 8 at Santa Clara. Cougars get to foul line a lot; can they do it here? WCC road favorites of 8+ points are 8-2 vs spread this season.

Oregon was 8-0 vs spread in Pac-12 until they lost at Colorado Saturday; Ducks are 4-0 as a home favorite, winning home games by 2-23-42-23-17 points. Arizona State lost five of its last six games; they’re 2-2-1 as a road underdog, losing away games by 16-16-22-3 points, with a win at Stanford. Oregon won four in row, seven of last eight games with ASU; Sun Devils lost last four visits to Eugene by 9-3-7-3 points. Ducks force turnovers 22% of time in league, but ASU is good at protecting the ball. Pac-12 home favorites of 15+ points are 3-7 vs spread.

Cal-Davis won its last three games, is 2-1 on Big West road, with wins by 3-6 points and loss at Riverside. Aggies are 1-2 as Big West favorites; underdogs covered five of their last six games. Cal Poly is 0-3 at home in league, losing by 13-22-6 points; they’re 2-3 as a Big West dog, but did win at first-place Cal-Irvine last week. Davis won six of last seven games with Cal Poly, winning two of last three visits here. Davis won first meeting this year 68-64 at home Jan 7. Big West road favorites are 2-4 vs spread this season.

Colorado won couple home games LW after an 0-7 start in Pac-12; they’ve lost road games by 16-1-9-2-2 points, losing last two road games in OT. Buffs are 1-2 as a road underdog. Stanford lost its last two games, scoring 53.5 pts/game; Cardinal is 2-2 at home in Pac-12, beating both Washington schools by 30-7 points, losing to the Arizona schools by 5-39. Colorado won its last six games with Stanford, winning last three visits here, by 2-1-3 points. Pac-12 favorites of 3 or less points are 1-6 against the spread this season.

NC-Greensboro lost its last two games, is 0-4 vs spread in its last four; they’re 3-1 on SoCon road, 1-1 as a road underdog, with only road loss by 19 at Wofford. Chattanooga lost its last two games, is 1-4 as a home favorite, winning by 11-16-10-4 points, with loss to VMI as a 20-point favorite. UNCG beat Chattanooga 73-68 in first meeting Jan 2, after being down 12 late in first half; teams split last six series games. Spartans won three of last five visits here, winning 79-64 here LY. Single digit home favorites are 5-8-2 vs spread in SoCon games this season.

Belmont is 9-0 in OVC, covering five of last six games; they’re 5-1 as road favorites, with wins on foreign soil by 5-16-6-13-13-17 points. Murray State lost two of last three games; they’re 2-0 as an OVC underdog this year. Racers are 3-1 at home in OVC, with only loss to SE Missouri State as an 8.5-point favorite. Bruins won four of last five games with Murray State; home side won all five regular season meetings in OVC play- they lost by 5-15 points in two visits here. Four of six meetings were decided by 5 or less points.

Armadillosports.com

Trends to Watch - Thursday
VegasInsider.com

Florida Force

Florida welcomes struggling Missouri to the O'Connell Center looking to keep pace in the SEC race. The Tigers haven't tasted victory in nearly a month, but they continue to play hard. The Tigers gave No. 20 South Carolina all they could handle in Saturday's 10-point loss. Mizzou is an impressive 8-3 ATS in the past 11 road games, and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 as a road underdog. The Gators are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 as a home favorite, and 16-5 ATS in the past 21 overall as a favorite. Defense has been a hallmark for the Gators team all season, and they have yet to allow a team to reach its season scoring average in regulation this season. The 'under' is 4-1 in the past five meetings in this series.

West is Best

Gonzaga puts its No. 1 ranking on the line when they travel to Provo to take on Brigham Young. It's a tricky spot for the Bulldogs, and bettors are feeling that. The line opened at 11 1/2, and quickly was bet down to 8 1/2. The public is on BYU despite the fact the Bulldogs are 22-5 ATS in their past 27 games overall, and 21-5 ATS in their past 26 games as a favorite. They are also 7-1 ATS in their past eight games as a road favorite. Gonzaga is also 20-7 ATS in their past 27 against teams with a winning overall record, and 19-7 ATS in their past 26 league outings.

The West Coast Conference's other ranked team, St. Mary's (Calif.) is also in action, traveling to Pacific as 16-point favorites. The Gaels are 5-2 ATS in their past seven road outings, and 39-19-2 ATS in their past 60 as a road favorite. However, they're 0-4-1 ATS in their past five against teams with a losing overall record, mainly due to inflated lines such as Thursday's 16-point mark. Pacific has struggled mightily, however, going 3-8 ATS in their past 11 league games, and 0-7 ATS in their past seven at home. The road team has covered five of the past seven in this series, too.
Pac Men

Arizona hopes to stay hot at Oregon State. The Wildcats have covered six in a row on the road, and they're 5-1 ATS in their past six as a road favorite. However, they're just 1-3-2 ATS in their past six as a favorite. The Beavers are 4-1 ATS in their past five home outings, and they're 18-7-1 ATS in their past 26 as a home underdog. The Wildcats have had their troubles in Corvallis, however, going 0-6 ATS in their past six trips. The home team is 20-7 ATS in the past 27 in this series.

Oregon looks to get untracked after a road loss at Colorado last time out. That loss snapped a 17-game winning streak, and an eight-game cover streak in the process. That's bad news for Arizona State, who is just 3-7-1 ATS in their past 11 games on the road. The Sun Devils are also 6-16-2 ATS in their past 24 as an underdog, too.

A pair of 15-6 clubs hook up in Berkeley when California hosts Utah. Cal is just 1-4 ATS in their past five overall, and 2-9-1 ATS in their past 12 games against teams with a winning percentage over .600. The Utes are an impressive 5-0-1 ATS in their past six road games, and 13-4-1 ATS in their past 18 conference games. Utah is also 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven against teams with an overall winning mark. The Bears are favored by three points as of Thursday morning.

Colorado and Stanford look to keep their postseason hopes alive. Both teams have 10 losses already, but can still make the NIT or NCAA Tournament if they can get hot. It all starts Thursday in Palo Alto. The Buffaloes improved their resume' with a nice win against Oregon last time out, but they cannot afford any additional setbacks. Colorado is 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven on the road, and 2-9-1 ATS in their past 12 overall. For Stanford, they're just 2-6 ATS in their past eight home games, but they're 6-2 ATS in their past eight home games agaisnt a team with a losing road record.

U-S-A...U-S-A...U-S-A

Florida Atlantic heads to Charlotte looking for a second straight road win. The Owls are 3-1 ATS in their past four overall, they're 6-1 ATS in their past seven road outings and the 'over' has cashed in three straight. The 49ers are 4-9 ATS in their past 13 overall, although they're 12-3-1 ATS in their past 16 as a home favorite.

Florida International looks to rebound after a loss to FAU, traveling to Old Dominion. The Golden Panthers are just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 overall, but they're 5-1 ATS in their past six away from South Florida. The Monarchs have struggled against the number, going 1-4 ATS in their past five overall, 1-4 ATS in their past five at home and 0-5 ATS in their past five as a favorite.

Louisiana Tech is heavily favored, and rightly so. They're 5-1 ATS in their past six as a favorite, and they're 7-2 ATS in their past nine home games. They will host a Western Kentucky team which has been struggling, going 1-6 ATS in their past seven overall. The Hilltoppers are also 4-9-1 ATS in their past 14 road games, and 0-5 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning overall mark.

Middle Tennessee aims for their 20th victory of the season at Texas-San Antonio. The Blue Raiders have covered seven of the past eight on the road, and they're 10-2 ATS in their past 12 league contests. While the Roadrunners are 4-1 ATS in their past five at home, they're 1-5 ATS in their past six as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their past four league games.

Thursday's Elite Eight
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Gonzaga at BYU

Outside of Gonzaga's Feb. 11 visit to Saint Mary's, the only West Coast Conference stop were it failed to win last season, tonight's trip to Provo will likely provide their toughest challenge. Although the Cougars have been inconsistent, if they're able to hit some early shots and keep the crowd at the Marriott Center engaged, the Bulldogs will be forced to contend with the most hostile atmosphere they'll see all year. The Zags have played games at Disney's Wide World of Sports, Nashville's Bridgeport Arena, a hockey venue, and LA's Staples Center. All their toughest games were played at those neutral sites. Undoubtedly, that will make the aforementioned trek to the Bay Area to face the Gaels the biggest threat to an undefeated regular season, but tonight's game will be played in a raucous building in front of nearly six times as many BYU fans than there will be Saint Mary's supporters at tiny McKeon Pavilion in just over a week. Any hope for a BYU upset hinges on a big game from forward Eric Mika, who leads the WCC in scoring (20.8 ), rebounding (9.6) and blocks (2.0). He can get the Cougs extra opportunities alongside freshman Yoeli Childs as BYU looks to find ways to attack Gonzaga, which has had issues on the boards at times. Gonzaga has its own key freshman in 6-foot-10 Killian Tillie, who is likely to return from an ankle sprain. The Cougars have a major injury concern since guard Nick Emery, the team's leader in 3-pointers made and attempted, fell ill with the flu and will be a game-time decision. Emery has been dealing with a sore knee, so he won't be 100 percent even if he does play. Gonzaga has only failed to cover twice in its last 15 games, a run that dates back to late November. It has won 14 straight games by double-digits and took last week's two West Coast Conference games by an average of 41.5.

Utah at California

These teams come in with identical records and should wind up on the right side of the bubble when the field of 68 is announced on March 12, but both would love to ease the pressure on a daunting February slate by getting this first one. This matchup pits two of the Pac-12's top big men in forwards Ivan Rabb (15.6, 10.7), Cal's likely lottery pick, and Utah's Kyle Kuzma (15.6, 10.1), whose versatility and polished post skills make them the focal point of their respective teams. The Bears have won five of six and have been at their best since getting healthy, while Utah got forward David Collette back from a concussion for last week's home loss to Oregon. The Utes shoot 59.5 percent from the field from 2-point range, which Collette greatly contributes to since he's up near 66 percent, takes smart shots and has proven to be a fantastic finisher around the basket. He's one of five double-digit scorers for Utah, who now have strength in numbers with Collette back and fellow transfer Sedrick Barefield (SMU) really providing a boost from the perimeter and through his ability to score. Cal got center Kameron Rooks back to aid the cause inside and has gotten a huge lift from freshman Charlie Moore, a Chicago native who was Illinois' Mr. Basketball last year and has stepped in to lead the veteran-laden Bears in assists. Cal and Utah are among the top rebounding teams in the Pac-12, so whichever team is able to win the battle of the boards is likely to win this game. They're meeting for the first time since last March's conference tournament semifinals, a contest the Utes won in OT.

Michigan State at Nebraska

Oddsmakers went pick'em on this, a key contest between teams hoping to catch fire this month in order to have a shot at being happy on Selection Sunday. Coming off a home upset of Purdue, the 'Huskers are looking to string together consecutive Big Ten wins to climb back in the hunt for an at-large bid following a five-game losing streak that appeared to have dashed those hopes. Because Nebraska played such a fierce non-conference schedule and opened league play with wins at Indiana and Maryland -- still the Terps' lone Big Ten loss -- it can realisically land right back on the bubble with a strong February. The Spartans defeated rival Michigan in East Lansing on Sunday to snap a three-game losing streak and will be in Ann Arbor next Tuesday for the big rematch. Although Michigan State is in better shape than Nebraska, it still has to host Wisconsin and travel to Purdue, Illinois and Maryland in addition to facing Michigan, so getting on track on the road is a must. Sparty has lost on a miliary base at Pearl Harbor, at Madison Square Garden, in Paradise Island down in the Bahamas, at Duke and at league stops in State College, Columbus and Bloomington. They're 2-7 outside of East Lansing, but do have dynamic freshman Miles Bridges playing like he did to start the season before getting injured, averaging 20.2 points and 9.0 rebounds over his last five games. Nebraska hopes to have its top rebounder and post defender, Ed Morrow, back from a foot injury that has cost him the past seven games, but won't make a decision on his availability until closer to tip-off. Tom Izzo's Spartans have won three straight in this series.

Colorado at Stanford

These are the two most disappointing teams in the conference this season, but both are talented enough to play spoiler this month and secure themselves an NIT bid for their efforts. They'll play twice, getting together on the 2nd of next month as well, and it will probably end up that the team that can persevere head-to-head will climb ahead on the pecking order to finish seventh and earn themselves the easiest path to making a run in the Pac-12 Tournament. Colorado comes off a stunning upset of Oregon, handing the Ducks their first league loss. The Buffs have won consecutive games after opening league play 0-7. Losses to ASU, USC, Washington and Washington State all came by one possession, so they may have made a breakthrough in putting away Oregon. Experience-wise, they have one of the conference's most veteran groups, which gives them an advantage here. Colorado has beaten Stanford six consecutive times. The Cardinal got power forward Reid Travis back from a shoulder issue that has hindered him for most of the month, returning for Sunday's 66-55 loss to Cal. Travis (16.6, 8.7) leads his team in scoring and rebounding and often commands double-teams, creating space for an offense that ranks last in the legue in 3-point percentage (31.3), field goal percentage (42.7) and next-to-last in scoring (68.0). Senior guards Derrick White and Xavier Johnson will be tough for Stanford to stop given their lack of depth on the wing, but it did manage to overcome Markelle Fultz-led Washington in its last outing at Maples Pavilion. The last five Cardinal games have all gone under the posted total. div>

Arizona State at Oregon

The Ducks haven't had to rally from a loss since Nov. 22, when Dillon Brooks saved the team from a loss to Tennessee, ultimately delivering an overtime win. Oregon last dropped consecutive games last season, doing so only once when it came up empty on the Cal-Stanford trip. For this bounce-back attempt, they'll be back at Matthew Knight Arena, where they've won 38 straight, the second-longest active run behind Kansas (51). Oregon had its program-record 17-game winning streak snapped at Colorado, where it is now 0-7 all-time. The Ducks took 34 3-pointers in the loss to the Buffs and will look to be smarter with their shot selection here, hoping to turn defense and long rebounds into easy buckets. Arizona State has shot the most 3-pointers in the Pac-12, so any hopes of an upset will hinge on a hot-shooting night. Obinna Oleka (13.1, 10.6) has racked up 12 double-doubles and will battle with Oregon's Chris Boucher and Jordan Bell inside, while wings Torian Graham (18.7), Tra Holder (17.7), Kodi Justice (7.7) and point guard Shannon Evans (15.4) can all fill it up. The Sun Devils have virtually no depth on their bench, which could be an issue against a Ducks team loaded with quality pieces. ASU has seen the over prevail in eight of its last nine games, while the under has hit in six of eight Oregon games, including the last three.

Middle Tennessee at Texas-San Antonio

The Blue Raiders have opened up a two-game lead on their closest pursuer in Conference USA and are looking to improve to 10-0 after surviving a double-digit deficit against Louisiana Tech last time out, winning by 10 themselves. Middle Tennessee leads the league in turnover margin and has surrendered just 61.4 points in league play. They'll face C-USA's top rebounding team in UTSA (40.6), which ranks 14th overall in the country. Las Vegas native Bryon Frohnen leads the Roadrunners with 6.7 boards per game and has earned league Freshman of the Week honors three times already. Frohnen was first-year head coach Steve Henson and is used in multiple roles and has already become one of the program's most important players. Together with burly forward Jeff Beverly, they'll try and contend with leading scorer and rebounder JaCorey Williams (17.3, 7.3) and arguably the top forward in the league, reigning C-USA Tournament MVP Reggie Upshaw (14.7). The Roadrunners rank among the top four in C-USA in field goal percentage defense (.335), scoring defense (69.5) and are strong on the perimeter, which means this may end up low-scoring. The 'under' prevailed in eight of Middle Tennessee's first nine games and in 3-1-1 in UTSA's last five. UTSA has failed to cover in four straight, losing three outright, while the Blue Raiders have dominanted ATS and have lost only one road game. This is the lone meeting of the season between these schools and will mark only their fourth encounter. Middle Tennessee has won twice.

Arizona at Oregon State

The Wildcats are looking to move to 10-0 in league play and are the last unbeaten standing, while the Beavers are winless, sabotaged by injuries that has foiled any hope of returning to the NCAA Tournament after breaking a 26-year drought in 2016. Despite their struggles, Arizona comes in wary of its host since it has only won twice in Corvallis in its last five trips there, posting some pretty puzzling results since last prevailing in 2014. No member of the Arizona roster has ever won at Oregon State's Gill Colisuem, so even though Saturday's visit to Eugene means everything in Pac-12 play, Sean Miller has warned his team to take it one game at a time. Two years ago, OSU beat a Top-10 Arizona squad that reached the Elite 8 at home, so even without its most talented player, Tres Tinkle, still out after breaking his wrist, they loom as dangerous. The 'Cats have shooting guard Allonzo Trier back from suspension and are at full strength, but struggled against Washington State's zone in Sunday's 77-66 win, failing to cover for the second straight game. They'll look to beast on a Beavers defense that has fallen off drastically due to the graduation of former standout Gary Payton II, whose perimeter defense and on-ball pressure helped wreak havoc last season as OSU turned things aroud. Without him, the Beavers don't rank among the top 200 in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, while ranking 303rd, on the offensive end. Arizona has won 14 consecutive games and should come out focused to try and put this away early so Dana Altman can spread out the minutes to ensure his team is as fresh as possible for the weekend showdown at Oregon.

Missouri at Florida

The Gators will attempt not to get caught looking ahead to its immense weekend home date with Kentucky. It's not that they can't afford to, but a lack of focus could be a problem if they're looking to win decisively and cover a 22-point spread that is the largest they've been saddled with this season. Missouri arrives in Gainesville winless in SEC play and on a run of 30 consecutive road losses that dates back to Jan. 28, 2014. They've yet to win outside Columbia under Kim Anderson and rank last in the conference in field goal percentage (39.5) and 3-point percentage (27.9) while coming in next-to-last in scoring (69.4). The Tigers run in to a Florida team that responded to its two-game losing streak, tight setbacks against South Carolina and Vandy, by winning at LSU and Oklahoma by over 30 points. It will be fun to see if sophomore center Kevarrius Hayes can duplicate his production against the Sooners, who he torched for career-highs with 20 points and nine rebounds. One of the few things Mizzou does well is rebound, so another big game from Hayes would likely snuff out any hope of an upset. Transfer Canyon Barry, a key contributor off the bench and one of UF's top shooters, is fully healed from an ankle injury that cost him a game, but reserve forward Keith Stone is out with an ear infection. Missouri is 3-7-1 ATS on its current 12-game losing streak and even dropped a non-board home game against Atlantic Sun member Lipscomb. It has lost 13 straight in SEC play.