NCABB betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, January 31st, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
Creighton is 1-2 since losing PG Watson for year, losing by 20 at Georgetown in only road game since then- they were 3-0 in Big East road games before he got hurt. Butler won four of last five games, but got upset by Hoyas last game; Bulldogs are 3-1 as home favorite, winning by 17-8-5-8 points. Butler won three of last four games with Creighton, winning by 3-13 in last two games played here. Bluejays won first meeting 75-64 at home Jan 11 (before Watson got hurt), shooting 72.7% inside arc (24-33). Big East home favorites of 6+ points are 14-8-1 vs spread.
Ole Miss is 1-3 at home in SEC contests; dogs covered three of the four games. Rebels are 0-2-1 vs spread as home favorites; their only home win was by 11 over Tennessee. Rebels are turning ball over 22% of time in SEC games. Mississippi State is 2-2 as a road underdog, losing last two away games by 7-9 points; they lost three of last four games overall. Ole Miss won five of last six games with Mississippi State, winning last five series games in Oxford, by 7-18-19-6-8 points. SEC home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-14 vs spread this season.
Iowa is 3-0 vs Rutgers in Big 14 play, winning 90-76 in only visit here LY. Hawkeyes won first meeting with Rutgers this year 68-62 at home, rallying back from 9 down with 9:44 left to play. Iowa lost three of last four games overall, is 0-4 on Big 14 road, losing by 22-3-35-12 points (0-4 vs spread). Rutgers is 1-8 in Big 14, blowing 9-point lead in last 3:21 vs Wisconsin last game; Scarlet Knights are 1-2 in their own gym, losing by 13 to Penn St, 9 to Northwestern. Big 14 home teams are 7-5 vs spread in games where number was 2 or less points.
Wake Forest led Duke by 10 with 4:01 left Saturday, lost by hoop, a brutal loss for young team; Deacons are 1-3 as a road underdog, losing away games by 16-17-5 points with lone win at NC State. Boston College lost last five games but covered last three; they’re 3-1 as a home dog, upsetting NC State/Syracuse. BC won three of last five games with Wake Forest; home side won six of last seven series games. BC lost 79-66 at Wake in first meeting this year Jan 3, in game BC led by 5 early in second half. ACC road favorites of 6 or less points are 4-7-1.
Ohio State is 3-2 in its last five games, with four of five decided by 6 or less points; Buckeyes are 2-2 at home in Big 14, losing to Purdue by 1, Northwestern by 2. Maryland is 11-1 this season in games decided by 8 or less points, despite being #319 experience team in country; Terrapins won/covered all Big 14 road games- they covered last six games overall. Maryland is 2-1 vs Ohio State in Big 14 games, splitting pair of games here. Terps swept Ohio State LY, winning by 35 at home, 66-61 in Columbus. Big 14 home favorites of 3 or less points are 12-6.
Missouri State lost its last two games by a point each; they’re 3-2 SU at home, 1-4 vs spread as a home favorite. Loyola won six of its last eight games (7-1 vs spread); they covered last four road games, are 2-0 vs spread as a road underdog, with road losses by 4-12-3 points (2-3 SU on road). Loyola won four of last five games with Missouri State, winning last two games here, by 3-13 points. Ramblers won first meeting this year 77-71 at home, rallying back from down 11 points in second half. MVC home favorites of less than 5 points are 6-4-1 vs spread.
St Joe’s lost four of last five games (last four decided by 5 or less points) but covered last three; they’re 2-2 at home in A-14, beating George Washington by 5, LaSalle by 1- they lost at home to George Mason/Richmond. Davidson won three of its last four games; they’re 2-2 on A-14 road, beating Saint Louis, Fordham, losing by 4 at George Washington, 8 at LaSalle. Home side won both St Joe’s-Davidson games in A-14 play; Wildcats lost 75-70 in only visit here, in ’15. A-14 road favorites of 5 or less points are 1-5 against the spread.
Akron is 8-0 in MAC, 4-4 vs spread, 2-1 as road favorite, winning road games by 4-4-10 points at Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Miami. 4 of Zips’ 8 MAC wins are by 5 or less points. Northern Illinois lost its last two home games, to Ohio/Kent; Huskies are 2-2 at home in MAC, with both wins by four points. NIU is turning ball over 21.7% of time in MAC games. Akron is 5-2 in its last seven games with NIU but they’re 1-5 in last six visits to DeKalb, losing last two games here by 1-3 points. MAC road favorites are 6-5-1 vs spread this season.
Auburn is 2-2 at home in SEC, winning last two home games, by 4-20 points; they won three of last four games overall after their upset win at TCU Saturday. Pearl’s old team Tennessee won four of last five games, is 2-2 on SEC road, winning at A&M/Vandy, losing by 13 at Florida, 11 at Ole Miss. Tennessee is 10-1 in its last 11 games with Auburn, thrashing undermanned Tigers 97-59 in SEC tourney LY. Vols won three of last four visits here, but lost 83-77 in LY’s visit. SEC home teams are 5-12 vs spread in games with spread of 2 or less points.
Vanderbilt lost three of its last five games, is 2-2 on SEC road, 3-1 as a road underdog, losing by 3 at Alabama, 8 at Georgia; they won at LSU/Florida. Texas A&M is 2-2 on road, 1-3 as a road favorite, beating LSU by 30, Georgia by 1, losing to Tennessee/Arkansas. Aggies’ last four games were all decided by 4 or less points. Aggies are turning ball over 25.6% of time in SEC games. Home side won five of six Vandy-Texas A&M games; Commodores lost last two visits here, by 11-9 points. SEC home favorites of 5+ points are 13-11-1 vs spread this season.
West Virginia is 17-4 this year, with all four losses by 4 or less points; Mountaineers are forcing turnovers 23.9% of time, but are just 2-2 on Big X road, losing at Texas Tech/K-State by total of five points. Iowa State is 3-1 at home in Big X, with only loss by 4 to Kansas; Cyclones’ last five games were all decided by 7 or less points. West Virginia swept Iowa State by 5-10 points LY, after losing five of first six Big X meetings with the Cyclones. WVU is 1-3 in Ames, losing by 2-17-20 points. Big X road favorites of 3 or less points are 4-2 against the spread.
Wisconsin won its last ten games with Illinois, winning last four visits here, by 4-6-12-8 points. Badgers won their last five games overall (2-3 vs spread); they’re 3-1 on Big 14 road, winning last two road games in OT- they’re 1-2 as a road favorite. Illinois lost four of last five games, is 3-1 at home in league, with only loss by 6 to Maryland. Home side covered 8 of their 9 Big 14 games. Teams are shooting 55.9% inside arc vs Illini. Wisconsin is forcing turnovers 21.5% of time in conference games. Big 14 road favorites of 3+ points are 1-6 vs spread.
Colorado State won/covered its last three games, is 7-2 vs spread in Mountain West games this year; Rams are 3-1 at home in MW, with only loss by 13 to New Mexico. Boise is 4-1 on MW road, with only loss by 9 at Fresno. Rams/Broncos split their 12 Mountain West games; CSU won first meeting this year 74-73 at home, after being down 6 with 4:04 left in game, winning despite going 5-23 on arc, 17-30 on line. Broncos lost last two visits to Ft Collins, by 6-4 points- they lost here in double OT LY. Mountain West home favorites of 3 or less points are 4-6.
Armadillosports.com
Tuesday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Before delving into tonight’s 27-game card and rewind Monday’s action in Bonus Nuggets, let’s break down a pair of 9:00 p.m. Eastern tips that’ll be provided by the World Wide Leader. Brent Musburger’s legendary broadcasting career will come to a close at Rupp Arena, where Kentucky will take on Georgia. Also, Iowa State will take on West Virginia in a Big 12 scrap in Ames.
Georgia at Kentucky
Both teams are in dire need of a win here. Kentucky can’t take a third home loss and feel like it’s still one of the top candidates for a No. 1 seed – at least for the time being. Georgia would suddenly start to feel confident about its bubble hopes with a resume-bolstering win at Rupp Arena. As of early this morning, most betting shops had John Calipari’s team installed as a 16.5-point home favorite.
Kentucky (17-4 straight up, 12-9 against the spread) is 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS at home, but it took that second home loss Saturday night to Kansas. The Jayhawks overcame a raucous crowd and the presence of Michael Buffer during the announcement of the starting lineups, capturing a 79-73 win as seven-point underdogs. Freshman sensation Josh Jackson led KU with 20 points, 10 rebounds, three assists and a pair of steals. Frank Mason had a game-high 21 points, while Landen Lucas scored 13 before fouling out. In the losing effort, Derek Willis and Malik Monk scored 18 points apiece. De’Aaron Fox struggled with 10 points, two rebounds and two assists compared to five turnovers. ‘Bam’ Adebayo finished with 10 points and eight boards, but he also coughed up four turnovers. Isaiah Briscoe had 12 points, eight rebounds and six assists.
Kentucky is in a first-place tie with South Carolina atop the SEC standings. The Wildcats and Gamecocks, who are both 7-1 in league play, lead Alabama and Florida by one game. UGA is 4-4 in SEC action.
Calipari’s freshmen-laded squad is ranked eighth in the Associated Press’s poll, eighth in the RPI Rankings and third at KenPom.com. UK is 4-4 against the RPI Top 50 and 9-4 versus the Top 100. They have notable neutral-court wins over North Carolina and Michigan St. UK has convincing home victories over Arkansas (97-71), South Carolina (85-69), vs. Valpo (87-63), vs. Texas A&M (100-58) and vs. Auburn (92-72). The ‘Cats have also won at Ole Miss (99-76) and at Vandy (87-81).
Monk is averaging an SEC-high 21.7 points per game thanks to quality percentages from the field (49.7%), 3-point land (39.6%) and the free-throw line (82.8%). Fox (15.9 PPG) is averaging an SEC-best 5.7 assists and 1.6 steals per game. Briscoe averages 14.0 points, 4.9 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game, while Adebayo is contributing 13.3 points and 6.9 RPG with a team-best 35 blocked shots.
UK senior reserve Mychal Mulder (6.5 PPG) is expected to miss a fourth straight game with an illness.
Kentucky hasn’t ever lost three in a row since Calipari took over in 2009-2010. The streak will be on the line tonight after the loss to KU was preceded by an 82-80 setback at Tennessee.
Georgia (13-8 SU, 9-8 ATS) has just three wins in seven road games, but it has covered the number at a 5-2 ATS clip in those road assignments. Mark Fox’s team is 5-1 ATS with two outright wins in six games as an underdog. The Dawgs are 2-0 ATS as double-digit ‘dogs.
Georgia recovered from a nine-point halftime deficit to rally past Texas for a 59-57 win Saturday at Stegeman Coliseum in Athens. The Bulldogs failed to cover the spread as six-point home ‘chalk,’ but they avoided a three-game losing streak when Longhorns’ freshman center Jarrett Allen saw his jump hook in the paint go in and out at the buzzer. Yante Maten scored 21 points and pulled down seven rebounds, while J.J. Frazier scored 14 points.
Maten leads UGA in scoring (19.7 PPG), rebounding (7.7 RPG), field-goal percentage (53.6%) and blocked shots (1.5 BPG). Frazier (15-5 PPG) paces the team in assists (4.2 APG), free-throw percentage (89.2%) and steals (2.0 SPG). However, Frazier is shooting at career-low 27.3 percent from 3-point range.
According to Joe Lunardi of ESPN, Georgia is currently a part of his “Next Four Out” in his latest edition of ‘Bracketology.’ The Bulldogs are No. 52 at KenPom.com and No. 51 in the RPI Rankings. They’ve 0-4 against the RPI Top 50 and 5-7 in the Top 100.
Four of UGA’s best wins have come by double-digit margins, while another came by eight points. The Bulldogs own home scalps of Vanderbilt (76-68) and UNC Asheville (60-46), in addition to victories at Ga. Tech (60-43), at Auburn (96-84) and at Ole Miss (69-47). They lost in overtime at Florida (80-76) when Maten fouled out in regulation and also fell by six at home to South Carolina.
Kentucky has won six in a row in this rivalry, going 4-2 ATS. The Wildcats overcame an early double-digit deficit and being down by five at intermission to beat UGA 93-80 in last year’s SEC Tournament semifinals. They slipped ahead of the number for the first time with 55 seconds left and took the cash as 10.5-point ‘chalk.’ Willis had 14 points and seven rebounds, while Briscoe had 12 points and seven boards. Meanwhile, Maten had 20 points and Frazier finished with 19 points and five assists compared to only one turnover.
The ‘over’ is 13-8 overall for UK, 7-5 in its home games.
The ‘under’ is 9-8 overall for UGA, 4-3 in its road contests.
West Virginia at Iowa State
As of early this morning, most books had West Virginia (17-4 SU, 8-8 ATS) listed as a 2.5-point favorite at Iowa St. Bob Huggins’s team brings to Ames a 3-2 SU record and a 2-3 ATS mark in its road games.
West Virginia is seeking a third straight win even though it’s mired in a 2-6 ATS slump. After losing at home in overtime to Oklahoma by two and dropping a 79-75 decision at Kansas State, the Mountaineers have posted home wins over Kansas and Texas A&M. They failed to get the money in Saturday’s 81-77 win over the Aggies as 15-point home ‘chalk.’ Jevon Carter led the winners with 19 points and nine rebounds, while Esa Ahmad contributed 14 points, six assists, four rebounds and two blocked shots.
Carter is leading four WVU players averaging in double figures with his 12.2 PPG average. He’s also pacing WVU in assists (4.7 APG) and steals (3.0 SPG). Senior forward Nathan Adrien, a Morgantown High School product, is averaging 10.4 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. He had a season-high 22 points when the Mountaineers beat the No. 1 team in the nation at home (Baylor on Jan. 10) for the third time in school history.
WVU is ranked seventh in the nation in scoring with an 87.8 PPG average. The Mountaineers are tops in the nation in forcing turnovers (22.7 per game)
Since joining the Big 12, WVU has lost three of four games against ISU in Ames.
Iowa State (13-7 SU, 9-8 ATS) has won eight of its 10 home games while going 4-3 ATS. The Cyclones have been home underdogs just once, losing 76-72 to Kansas as 2.5-point home ‘dogs.
Steve Prohm’s team has dropped three of its last five games both SU and ATS, including Saturday’s 84-78 loss at Vandy as a 2.5-point road ‘chalk.’ Monte Morris had a game-high 25 points at Memorial Gymnasium in Nashville. He handed out three helpers without a turnover, becoming the schol’s all-time leader in assists with 666. Donovan Jackson scored 16 points thanks to 4-of-6 shooting from downtown. Matt Thomas also hit 4-of-6 from long distance in a 14 points-effort, while Deonte Burton finished with 13 points, 10 rebounds and three blocked shots.
Morris leads the Cyclones in scoring (16.4 PPG), assists (5.8 APG) and field-goal percentage (47.7%). Burton (13.6 PPG) paces them in rebounding (6.9 RPG), steals (1.6 SPG) and blocks (1.4 BPG). Nazareth Mitrou-Long (15.3 PPG) is averaging 4.8 RPG and has a 58/34 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Thomas (11.8 PPG) is shooting a team-best 41.2 percent from 3-point range.
According to Lunardi at ESPN, ISU is currently a No. 7 seed that would face Minnesota in the Round of 64. He has WVU as a No. 3 seed that would take on Princeton.
WVU won both head-to-head meetings both SU and ATS last season, including an 81-76 triumph as a five-point road underdog on Feb. 2 of 2016. Daxter Miles Jr. had 11 points and five rebounds for the winners, while Morris had nine points and 10 assists without a turnover in the losing effort.
The ‘under’ is 10-7 overall for ISU, 5-2 in its home contests.
The ‘over’ is 10-5-1 overall for WVU, 3-1-1 in its road outings. The ‘over’ has cashed at an 8-1-1 clip for WVU in its last 10 games.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Xavier’s expectations in March took a serious blow Monday when the school revealed that Edwin Sumner has a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season. Sumner was averaging 15.0 points and 5.0 assists per game.
North Carolina forward Theo Pinson is ‘out’ of Tuesday’s home games vs. Pittsburgh. Pinson is averaging 6.2 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. The Tar Heels were favored by 19 points early this morning. The junior missed Saturday’s loss at Miami due to the ankle injury sustained in a home win over Virginia Tech last week.
Vanderbilt is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. The Commodores are five-point underdogs tonight at Texas A&M. This game will tip at 9:000 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.
Colorado State has won three in a row both SU and ATS and is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games. The Rams, who are 5-2 ATS as favorites for the season, are short 1.5-point home favorites tonight vs. Boise State.
Like CSU, Boston College owns an 8-2 spread record in its last 10 games. The Eagles are 5.5-point home underdogs tonight vs. Wake Forest at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.
Iowa star Peter Jok is ‘questionable’ tonight at Rutgers due to a back injury. Jok is averaging 21.0 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.1 steals per game.
Musburger will be joining Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN), a streaming network dedicated to sports gambling that will launch Monday. The network’s shows will be broadcast from the South Point Hotel in Las Vegas. Other shows on the network will feature the likes of Jimm Vaccaro, Chris Andrews and Matt Youmans. Musburger’s nephew, Brian Musburger, is the founder chairman of VSiN.
Phil Forte suffered through most of Travis Ford’s final season in Stillwater without any way of helping while taking a medical redshirt due to an injury. On Monday night in Norman, the fifth-year senior drained a 3-point jumper from the left wing with 11 seconds left for the go-ahead bucket in OSU’s first win in Norman since 2004. Jawun Evans helped the Cowboys to their fourth consecutive win both SU and ATS with 24 points.
Duke won an 84-74 decision at Notre Dame as a 1.5-point road favorite last night. The win was the Blue Devils’ second straight to improve to 17-5 overall and 5-4 in the ACC. Grayson Allen and Jayston Tatum led the way with 21 and 19 points, respectively.
Trends to Watch - Tuesday
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Bounce-back Mode
Kentucky has lost two straight games for the first time since last February as the Wildcats coincidentally also lost back-to-back contests to Kansas and Tennessee. The Wildcats host Georgia at Rupp Arena as UK owns a 1-5 ATS mark the last six games.
North Carolina had it seven-game winning streak snapped in Saturday’s blowout loss at Miami. The Tar Heels return to the court, hosting Pittsburgh at home as UNC has covered six consecutive games at Chapel Hill.
Big Ten Trio
Iowa goes for the season sweep of Rutgers as the Hawkeyes are 0-4 SU/ATS in conference road games. Dating back to last season, Iowa owns a 2-8 SU/ATS mark inside the Big 10 on the highway, while Rutgers is riding a six-game UNDER streak.
Maryland seeks its seventh consecutive win and cover with a trip to Ohio State. The Terrapins have compiled a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS record as a road underdog in Big 10 action as Maryland opened as an underdog in Columbus.
Wisconsin travels to Illinois looking for its 11th straight victory over the Fighting Illini since January 2011. The Badgers have cashed in nine of the last 10 meetings, including four straight covers at Illinois as a road favorite.
MAC Attack
Ohio has won each of the past two meetings with Western Michigan, including an 89-58 blowout of the Broncos in early January. The Bobcats are 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS on the road in conference action, while the Broncos are looking to snap a four-game skid.
Toledo has owned Ball State recently by going 5-1 in the last six matchups, but the Cardinals have covered four times as an underdog. The Rockets have struggled on the highway in league play at 1-3 SU/ATS, while Ball State has won five of its past six games overall.
Both Miami (Ohio) and Bowling Green have stumbled to 2-6 conference records, as these teams split a pair of meetings last season. The Redhawks are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road inside the MAC, while the Falcons are 1-5 SU/ATS in the previous six contests overall.
Central Michigan shoots for its fourth straight victory as the Chippewas face Buffalo. The Bulls are coming off consecutive losses, but Buffalo has won three of four times this season off two straight defeats.
The home team has won each of the past five meetings between Kent and Eastern Michigan as the two squads meet in Ypsilanti. The Eagles are 0-3 ATS in their last three as a home favorite.
Akron looks to start 9-0 in MAC play as the Zips visit Northern Illinois. The Zips have lost in their last two visits to NIU, while the Huskies have dropped their past two home contests.
SEC Streakers
Mississippi has posted a 6-3-1 ATS record in the last 10 games as the Rebels face in-state rival Mississippi State. However, Ole Miss is 4-8-1 ATS this season in the favorite role, while the Bulldogs have lost four straight meetings in Oxford.
Tennessee looks to extend its winning streak to four following recent home underdog victories over Kentucky and Kansas State. The Volunteers head to Auburn as the Tigers have cashed in four of the past six games, while coming off a win as a 10 ½-point underdog at TCU on Saturday. Auburn has struggled against Tennessee over the years by losing nine of the past 10 meetings, but the only win in this stretch came last season at home.
Both Vanderbilt and Texas A&M look to improve on a 3-5 conference record, as the Commodores have lost five of their past six league games. The Aggies have stumbled to a 1-6 ATS mark in the past seven games as a favorite, including a 1-4 ATS record as a home favorite in SEC play.