NCABB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, February 1st, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
VCU is 6-2 in A-14, 3-1 as a home favorite, with home wins by 17-30-38-5 points; Rams force turnovers 22% of time and grab 38.5% of their own missed shots. Richmond is 7-2 in A-14, 3-1 on road, with only loss by 16 at Dayton; Spiders are 3-1 as road underdogs. VCU won seven of last nine games with crosstown rival Richmond; Spiders won only one of last nine games in this gym, with last four losses here by 22-11-11-13 points (Richmond won at VCU in 2015). Double digit home favorites are 7-11 vs spread in A-14 games this season.
Clemson snapped a 6-game skid with win at Pitt Saturday; they’re 2-2 as an ACC favorite. Tigers lost their last three home games, by 3-1-4 points. Georgia Tech covered its last six games (4-2SU); they’re 3-1 as a road underdog, losing away games by 53-1-13 points, with win at NC State. Tech held Clemson to 36.7% on floor in 75-63 upset win over Tigers Jan 12, Tech’s third straight win over Clemson, after losing 12 of previous 13 series games. Jackets lost their last ten games in Littlejohn. ACC home favorites of 9+ points are 8-9 vs spread.
Villanova rebounded from Marquette loss with comeback win over Virginia Sunday; Wildcats are 2-2 as Big East road favorites, losing at Butler/Marquette. Providence covered four of last five games; they’re 2-2 at home in Big East, with losses by 14-5 points. Villanova won three in row, 8 of last 9 games with Providence, winning last three visits here, by 3-6-12 points. Wildcats won first meeting this year 78-68 at home 11 days ago, despite Friars going 13-26 on arc. Villanova also beat Friars in last two Big East tourneys. Big East road favorites are 7-8-1 vs spread.
Syracuse is 0-4 on road, 5-0 at home in ACC play, losing away games by 15-10-17-18 points- they’re 0-3 as a road underdog. NC State lost five of last seven games, allowing 80+ points in four of last five games- they’re 2-2 at home, beating Va Tech/Pitt, losing to Wake Forrest/Ga Tech. Home side won all three NC State/Syracuse ACC games; Orange lost 71-57 here two years ago, also lost by 3 to Wolfpack in ’14 ACC tourney as teams split last four meetings. ACC home favorites of 3 or less points are 4-5 vs spread.
Kansas State is 3-1 at home in Big X, with only loss to Baylor; underdogs are 3-0-1 vs spread in those games. Wildcats are 0-2-1 as home favorites. TCU lost three of last four games, is 2-2 as a road underdog, wth 64-61 win at Texas their only win on Big X road- they lost road games by 12-6-13 points at West Va, Texas Tech, Okla State. K-State is 7-2 vs TCU in Big X meetings, sweeping Frogs by 14-25 points LY; TCU is 0-4 in Little Apple, losing by 11-12-5-25 points. Big X home favorites of 5+ points are 2-14-2 vs spread this season.
Florida State allowed 80 pts/game in losing its last two games by 22-10 points after starting season 18-2; Seminoles are 1-3 on ACC road, with only win by hoop at Virginia- they lost last three road tilts. Miami is 3-1 at home in ACC, with only loss to Notre Dame by 5; they’re 1-4 as an ACC favorite, 1-2 at home. FSU has #13 eFG% in ACC- they don’t shoot well. Miami won three in row, six of last eight games with Florida State, winning by 4-13 points in last two series games played here. ACC home favorites of 3 or less points are 4-5 vs spread.
Northwestern’s leading scorer Lindsey (illness) is out here, bad news for Wildcat squad that won/covered its last six games. Wildcats are 4-1 on Big 14 road, 1-1 as a road underdog- their only road loss was by 9 at Michigan State. Purdue won three of last four games, is 4-1 as a home favorite, with only loss to Minnesota. Purdue won last two games with Wildcats by 8-10 points, but teams split last six meetings overall. Northwestern lost four of last five visits here, losing by 13-10-31-10 points. Big 14 home favorites of 7 or less points are 19-9 vs spread.
Cincinnati won its last 12 games; they’re 3-1 as an AAC road favorite, winning on road by 5-9-9-17 points. Bearcats are shooting 39.4% on arc, holding teams to 39.9% inside arc in AAC games. Tulsa won five of its last six games; they’re 3-0 vs spread as an AAC underdog, 4-1 SU at home, with only loss by 3 to East Carolina. Tulsa is shooting 78.6% on line, best in AAC play. Cincinnati is 2-1 vs Tulsa is AAC meetings, losing 70-68 in OT here LY, winning other two by 19-9 points. AAC road favorites of 8+ points are 6-3 against the spread.
Baylor is 7-1 in Big X with only loss by 21 at West Virginia when they turned ball over 29 times. Bears are 1-1 as a Big X underdog; they beat Oregon/Louisville as underdogs earlier in season. Kansas is coming off win at Kentucky; they’re 1-3 as Big X home favorite, winning home games by 2-17-7-12 points. Jayhawks won their last eight games with Baylor, beating Bears by 10-4 points in last two Big X tourneys; Baylor lost last nine visits here, with last five all by 10+ points. Big X home favorites of 5+ points are 2-14-2 vs spread this season.
First game for Xavier without injured star Somner; Musketeers are 3-1 as home favorites, with home wins by 26-15-11 points, with loss to Creighton. Seton Hall lost four of last five games, is 0-4 on big East road, 1-2 as a road underdog, losing away games by 14-3-4-30 points. Seton Hall is 5-2 in Big East games vs Xavier, losing last two visits here, by 11-8 points. Home side won last five regular season meetings- Hall beat Xavier 87-83 in LY’s Big East tourney. Big East home favorites of 6+ points are 14-8-1 vs spread this season.
Nevada is 7-2 in Mountain West, winning last three road games by 1-15-19 points; their depth is better with couple injured subs back healthy. Wolf Pack is 4-3 as a MW favorite, 1-1 on road. Utah State lost four of last five games; they’re 3-2 at home in MW, losing to Boise/Colorado St. Home side covered seven of Aggies’ nine conference games. Nevada swept Utah State LY by 5-5 points, after losing 7 of previous 10 series games. Teams split last four series games in Logan. Mountain West road favorites are 5-7 vs spread this season.
New Mexico is down two starters (Williams/Kuiper) for rematch with UNLV, which upset Lobos 71-66 in The Pit Jan 10. New Mexico won three of last four meetings here. UNLV lost its last two games by total of five points; Rebels are 2-2 at home in MW, losing to Boise/San Diego St; they’re 3-5 vs spread as an underdog, 1-2 at home. New Mexico won four of last five games, is 3-2 on MW road, losing at Utah State by 4, Nevada by 17. Mountain West home teams are 7-6 vs spread in games with spread of 2 or less points.
USC won three of its last four games; they’re 2-2 on Pac-12 road, 0-1 as road favorite- they won by 7 at Oregon St., 3 at Colorado, lost at Oregon/Utah. Trojans are shooting just 42.7% inside arc. Huskies are worst defensive rebounding team in Pac-12- they shoot 57.4% on foul line. Washington lost its last three games, by 22-11-11 points; Huskies are 2-3 at home in Pac-12, beating Oregon St/Colorado. Home side won last six USC-Washington games; Trojans lost last four visits to Seattle, by 28-8-7-2 points. Totals in LY’s meetings were 172-186.
Armadillosports.com
NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Florida State at Miami
After back-to-back losses to unranked teams on the road this past week, Florida State (18-4, 11-8-1 ATS) dropped from #6 to #15 in the latest AP Top 25. The Seminoles get back into action Wednesday evening when they visit Miami Hurricanes (14-6, 5-13 ATS) who are off a confidence boosting 77-62 win over conference leading North Carolina.
Life on the road in college basketball is never easy especially when it comes to Florida State. The Seminoles have won/covered just one true road game this season and head into Coral Gables ridding a 1-6 SU/ATS skid in its last six away from Tallahassee. In contrast, Hurricanes have won 22 of 23 in front of the home audience including an eye-opening 12-1 straight-up record hosting an ACC rival (9-3-1 ATS).
Florida State playing its third consecutive road game tilts the scales towards Hurricanes who have won four of the past five meetings vs Noles in front of the home audience.
Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Villanova at Providence
As of early this morning, most betting shops had Villanova (20-2 straight up, 12-9 against the spread) installed as a 9.5-point favorite. The Wildcats maintain a one-half game lead over Creighton for first place in the Big East.
Villanova rallied from a nine-point halftime deficit to beat Virginia 61-59 Sunday on Donte DiVincenzo’s tip-in at the buzzer. However, the Cavaliers covered the spread as 5.5-point underdogs at The Pavilion. Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson scored 15 points apiece for the winners. Josh Hart was also in double figures with 12 points.
Jay Wright’s team beat Providence 78-68 on Jan. 21 at Wells Fargo Arena in Philadelphia, but the Friars took the money as 15-point road underdogs. Hart paced Villanova with 25 points, six rebounds and four assists compared to merely one turnover. Kris Jenkins added 19 points, four assists, four boards and a pair of steals. Mikal Bridges finished with 15 points, three boards, two steals and four assists without a turnover. Rodney Bullock had a team-high 17 points for PU in the losing effort.
Villanova is 4-2 both SU and ATS on the road this year.
Villanova is No. 2 in the RPI Rankings, posting a 7-1 record against Top-50 opponents and a 13-2 ledger versus Top-100 foes. The Wildcats have neutral-court wins over La Salle, Wake Forest and Notre Dame. They’ve also won at Purdue and at Creighton, in addition to home wins over Xavier, Seton Hall, Virginia, Charleston, Saint Joseph’s, Temple, Marquette and Providence.
Villanova’s losses have come at Butler and at Marquette.
Hart is leading Villanova in scoring (18.7 points per game) and rebounding (6.5 RPG) and is dishing out 3.4 assists per game. The senior from Silver Springs, MD., is hitting 52.6 percent of his shots from the field and 38.9 percent from 3-point range. Brunson (14.2) has a 93/43 assists-to-turnovers ratio and is connecting on 41.4 percent of his 3-pointers.
Villanova is ranked third in the country in free-throw shooting (79.3%) and 11th in field-goal percentage (49.5%). The Wildcats are 15th in the nation in scoring defense (62.5 PPG) and 14th at defending the 3-point line (30.3%).
Providence (14-9 SU, 13-10 ATS) is 4-6 in league play. The Friars are 11-2 SU and 7-6 ATS at home. They’ve been home underdogs three times this year, compiling a 2-1 record both SU and ATS with wins over Rhode Island and Seton Hall.
Providence went into Milwaukee this past Saturday and knocked off Marquette 79-78 as an eight-point road underdog. Kyron Carwright was the catalyst with 18 points, six rebounds and six assists. Jalen Lindsey added 14 points and five boards.
Providence is No. 63 in the RPI, going 2-5 against the Top 50 and 7-6 versus the Top 100. The Friars’ best victories are home triumphs over Rhode Island and Seton Hall. They’ve won at Marquette, swept Georgetown and beaten Memphis on a neutral court.
Bullock leads the Friars in scoring (17.3 PPG), rebounding (6.1 RPG) and steals (1.3 SPG).
The ‘under’ is 14-7 overall for the Wildcats, 4-2 in their road contests. They’ve watched the ‘under’ go 8-2 in their last 10 games.
The ‘under’ is 12-9-2 overall for Providence, 6-6-1 in its home games, but it has seen the ‘over’ hit three times in a row.
Villanova has won three in a row in this rivalry and eight of the last nine, but Providence is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The ‘over’ is 7-2 in the last nine encounters.
Baylor at Kansas
These Big 12 rivals will face each other at Allen Fieldhouse with first place on the line. Both schools are sporting 7-1 records in league play, two games ahead of West Virginia and Iowa State. As of early this morning, most spots had Kansas (19-2 SU, 7-12 ATS) listed as a 6.5-point favorite. The Jayhawks are unbeaten in 10 home games, but they’ve limped to an abysmal 2-6 spread record.
Bill Self’s squad bounced back from an 85-69 loss last Tuesday to join UCLA as the only other team to clip Kentucky at Rupp Arena this season. KU went into Rupp Arena on Saturday night and captured a 79-73 win as a seven-point underdog. The Jayhawks hooked up money-line supporters with payouts in the +260 range (paid $260 on $100 wagers). Josh Jackson had 20 points, 10 rebounds, three assists and two steals, while Frank Mason finished with 21 points, four assists, three boards and a pair of steals. Landen Lucas contributed 13 points and five rebounds before fouling out.
Kansas is No. 3 in the RPI Rankings with a 6-1 record against the Top 50 and an 11-2 mark versus Top-100 foes. The Jayhawks have road wins at UK, Iowa State and TCU. Their resume has neutral-court wins over Duke and Georgia, in addition to home victories over Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Nebraska, Stanford and UNC-Asheville.
Kansas has won eight in a row over Baylor while covering the number at a 6-1-1 ATS clip. The ‘under’ is 7-2-1 in the last 10 encounters. When they met in Lawrence last season, Kansas smashed Baylor by a 102-74 count as a 12-point home ‘chalk.’ Graham and Mason had 15 and 11 points, respectively.
Baylor (20-1 SU, 9-7 ATS) has won outright in four of its five road assignments, going 3-2 ATS. Going back further, Scott Drew’s team owns a 13-3-1 spread record in its last 17 road games.
Baylor is No. 1 in the RPI Rankings thanks to quality wins galore. The Bears, who are 9-1 against the RPI Top 50 and 11-1 versus the Top 100, have home wins over Oregon, Xavier, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. They have neutral-court scalps of VCU, Michigan State and Louisville, in addition to road victories at Kansas State, at TCU and at Ole Miss.
Baylor brings a five-game winning streak to Lawrence after rallying to win 78-75 Saturday at Ole Miss. The Bears failed to cover the spread as 7.5-point road ‘chalk.’ They trailed by as many as 15 points in the first half. Manu Lecomte scored a team-best 17 points as he drained 5-of-6 shots from 3-point land. Johnathan Motley and Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. both finished with 16 points and nine rebounds apiece.
Baylor has been an underdog four times this year, producing a 3-1 record both SU and ATS.
Motley leads Baylor in scoring (16.2 PPG) and rebounding (9.6 RPG). Lecomte (12.3 PPG) has a 92/49 assists-to-turnovers ratio and is making 41.2 percent of his launches from 3-point range. Lual-Acuil is averaging 10.2 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. He is 10th in the nation in blocked shots (2.8 BPG).
The ‘under’ is 11-8 overall for KU, but it has seen the ‘over’ go 5-3 in its home contests. Regardless of the venue, the Jayhawks have seen six consecutive ‘unders.’
The ‘under’ is 9-6-1 overall for the Bears, but they’ve seen the ‘over’ go 3-2 in their five road outings.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Northwestern (18-4 SU) won’t have leading scorer Scottie Lindsey (illness) for tonight’s Big 10 showdown at Purdue. Lindsey is averaging 15.4 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game for the Wildcats, who are just one game out of first place in conference play with a 7-2 record. Lindsey could miss 2-3 weeks with mono. The Boilermakers are nine-point home favorites. Matt Painter’s team is 11-2 SU and 7-3 ATS at home. This game tips at 8:30 p.m. Eastern on the Big Ten Network.
The ‘over’ is 10-2 in LSU’s last 12 games going into tonight’s home contest vs. South Carolina. The Gamecocks were nine-point road favorites early this morning. The Tigers have lost seven in a row, but they’re 3-1 ATS in their last four games.
Gamblers should note the early tip for Indiana’s 6:30 p.m. Eastern tip tonight vs. Penn St. on the Big Ten Network. The Hoosiers, who were 6.5-point home favorites early this a.m., will be playing without James Blackmon Jr. He is ‘out’ indefinitely with a leg injury. Blackmon averages 17.6 points and 4.9 rebounds per game. IU is already without another starter, big man O.G. Anunoby, who was lost for the season two weeks ago.
I went 3-0 last night in college hoops to improve to 54-36 (60%, + 15.2 UNITS) for the season. I hit a second straight winner with Maryland as a short road underdog in Big Ten play. Days after winning at Minnesota, the Terrapins won a 77-71 decision at Ohio State as three-point ‘dogs, cashing +135 money-line tickets. Justin Jackson was the catalyst with 22 points and 12 rebounds. Melo Trimble had 13 points and four assists, while Kevin Huerter contributed nine points, four blocked shots, four assists and three rebounds. Mark Turgeon’s team improved to 20-2.
Kentucky had to face Georgia last night without star freshman guard De’Aaron Fox due to an illness that prevented him from even getting to the arena. Then Brent Musburger was on the final call of his legendary broadcasting career, and there was no way in hell Musburger wasn’t going to get a super-tight game. UK never threatened to cover the 16-point spread and was fortunate to force overtime before escaping with an 80-71 win. Malik Monk exploded for 37 points, including 31 after halftime, to prevent John Calipari’s team from its first three-game losing streak during his tenure. Monk’s mid-range jumper with eight second left forced the extra session. It was a tough beat for UGA money-line backers, who nearly cashed a ticket worth 10/1 odds. The score was knotted at 29-29 at intermission, so oddsmakers make UK a 10 or 10.5-point favorite for second-half wagers. Down by nine in the last 20 seconds, UGA at first started to trap and appeared as if it might foul. But when the ‘Cats passed out of a trap with about 15 seconds left, Mark Fox elected to call off his Dawgs By not fouling, UK second-half supporters were rightfully denied what would’ve been a chance at the FT line to get a miracle win.
My other winner after Maryland and Georgia last night was Vanderbilt, which went into College Station and dominated Texas A&M, 68-54. The Commodores won outright as 4.5-point underdogs, while the 122 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 135.5-point tally. Matthew Fisher-Davis and Luke Kornet scored 12 points apiece to lead five players in double figures. Tyler Davis had 18 points and six rebounds for the Aggies in defeat.
Pittsburgh gave North Carolina fits in Chapel Hill last night. Jamel Artis had a 30-foot look at the buzzer to win it, but he was off and UNC slipped past the Panthers, 80-78. Kevin Stallings’s team easily took the cash as a 19-point road underdog. Pitt was +1625 on the money line at 5Dimes and would’ve been a winner if Artis could’ve hit the game-winner. That’s the depth of the ACC this year with the league’s last-place team taking the first-place school to the buzzer on the road.
Paris Austin’s 25 points led Boise St. to a 79-76 win at Colorado St. as a 1.5-point road underdog.
Dave's CBB Wednesday
By Dave Essler
Baylor/Kansas: The Jayhawks "public" stock went from the bottom after losing to WVU to the top after beating Kentucky. The truth is probably in the middle, as it is with most arguments. Kansas' week of high profile games has made people forget that Baylor has one loss, to and at WVU. Last season Baylor lost to Kansas three times, including the Big 12 Tournament. After getting destroyed at Kansas, the next two were reasonably close. Kansas has the #1 offense in the Conference and Baylor the #1 defense. I usually side with the defense. Baylor has NOT been great at protecting the ball, and Kansas we know has FT issues - and since these public games rarely end with the favorite/over winning, I lean Baylor/under. The side might be a better 2H bet (score dependent) - so if I had to, and I might, under.
FSU/Miami: A lot of people outside the State of Florida might not realize how much these schools don't like each other, beyond football. Miami's stock is back up after beating UNC and the 'Noles IPO tonight is back down after two straight road losses. Honestly, I've never felt either team was as good as some would have had you believe a month ago. Miami won at FSU last season (it matters, IMO). Miami's only got that one home loss to the Irish, but aside from the UNC game they haven't played a good team at home. The teams that have beaten them have, for the most part, been running teams like FSU. FSU was able to handle UVA on the road, so I think they rise back to the occasion Wednesday.
Northwestern/Purdue: It's hard to fathom a team like Northwestern, sitting there with four losses and only one of them (at Michigan State) by more than a TD, is getting +8 or more. However, the best teams they've played this season haven't even been in the Big Ten, yet. They still haven't played Wisconsin, Maryland, or anyone other than Ohio State (marginally good) decent on the road. So, this could be where the rubber meets the road, since teams they HAVE lost to have for the most part been teams that could shoot over that defense, which clearly Purdue can do. Purdue's tempo an size should wear down Northwestern, later if not sooner.