NBA Northwest Division: Preview and Win Total Picks
By ASHTON GREWAL
Ashton Grewal’s obsession with the NBA is older than Marv Albert’s on-camera wig. Our hoops junkie previews the Northwest Division in Covers.com's first sneak peek at the upcoming pro basketball season.
Oklahoma City Thunder
2009-10 record: 50-32 straight up, 48-34 against the spread
2010-11 season win total: 50.5
This team has grown up faster than TV's Ben Seaver, but Thunder backers should expect to see some growing pains this year. Oklahoma City isn’t going to sneak up on anyone; this club has gone from a 20-win team to Western Conference elite.
Kevin Durant’s boys were big ATS winners over the past two seasons but oddsmakers aren’t going to be as generous with their lines this time around. The Thunder need a bounce-back year from versatile forward Jeff Green, one of their project big men (Byron Mullens or Cole Aldrich) to become a reliable part of the rotation and better long-range shooting from their perimeter players to compete with the league’s best teams.
I love this team’s nucleus, its strong play on the road and its no-nonsense coach. Play the over on the season win total with the Thunder but be careful backing them early on.
Pick: Over
Utah Jazz
2009-10 record: 53-29 SU, 49-30-3 ATS
2010-11 season win total: 49.5
The transition was already complete but with Carlos Boozer playing hoops in Chicago, Utah is officially now Deron Williams’ team. The Jazz appear to be in good shape despite losing their leading scorer and rebounder.
Paul Millsap proved two seasons ago that he can man the power forward position perfectly in coach Jerry Sloan’s pick and roll-heavy offense. The Jazz’s frontcourt depth will be tested early on while Mehmet Okur heals from an Achilles injury, but Al Jefferson should be able to eat up most of those minutes as the team’s starting center.
Utah’s softest spot is without question on its wing. In two years, the club has let Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver and Wesley Matthews all get away. That’s left the cupboard bare.
The Jazz hope to get 20 good minutes from 34-year-old shooting guard Raja Bell, and about the same from rookie Gordon Hayward.
Williams normally likes to push the pace on offense but I could see him slowing things down to get Millsap and Jefferson more touches. Pay attention to the Jazz’s totals early on. There could be some good value on playing the under.
It’s going to take a bit of time for Williams to get familiar with his new mates. I think that’ll cost Utah some wins early on and a chance to break the 50-win plateau.
Pick: Under
Portland Trail Blazers
2009-10 record: 50-32 SU, 44-36-2 ATS
2010-11 season win total: 49.5
It was a messy offseason for the Blazers. Owner Paul Allen started looked for a new GM before letting the other guy go. Head coach Nate McMillian isn’t signed past this year either.
The new management team decided to give a lucrative contract to the previously undrafted Wesley Matthews, even though Portland is clearly guard heavy. Weird.
Despite what you hear from some people, team star Brandon Roy did not enjoy playing with point guard Andre Miller. Roy wants to operate with the ball in his hands and hates seeing Miller chew up the first 12 seconds of the shot clock with his probing dribble penetration.
Roy is already telling reporters he wants to see the ball a lot more this season.
You’ve got to wonder who’s going to man the paint for Portland while the team waits for Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla to return from their knee injuries. From the looks of things, the Blazers are going to be playing a lot of three-guard lineups with Marcus Camby and LaMarcus Aldridge playing heavy minutes.
Pick: Under
Denver Nuggets
2009-10 record: 53-29 SU, 35-41-6 ATS
2010-11 season win total: 43.5
Call this line the Carmelo-Anthony factor. The Nuggets’ franchise player is holding his franchise hostage because he wants to be part of another franchise. Make sense?
Anthony isn’t the only Nugget not acting very mellow these days. Kenyon Martin is sour because the Nuggets didn’t extend his contract and is making noises about resting his knee until Christmas, while Chauncey Billups is telling everyone who’s listening that he doesn’t want to hang around if Anthony gets his trade wish.
But let’s focus on the positives, shall we? Ty Lawson is the best backup point guard in the Association and Nene might be the league’s most underrated center.
J.R. Smith is a ball hog, and many speculate he’s one of the big reasons Anthony wants out of town. Still, the guy has a world of talent and can score 20 points off the bench on any given night.
All this adds up to a lot of headaches for a head coach who’s recovering from a bout with cancer.
Despite all these negative issues, there’s just too much talent on this roster to take the under at 43.5 wins.
Pick: Over
Minnesota Timberwolves
2009-10 season record: 15-67 SU, 37-44-1 ATS
2010-11 season win total: 22.5
Does David Kahn know what he’s doing? It seems like the embattled GM is changing Minnesota’s direction on the fly. He shipped away Al Jefferson, the centerpiece of the Kevin Garnett trade, for nothing but cap room and he’s excited about Darko Milicic’s potential this season.
Yeah, I know. Somebody get this guy a warm cup of shut the hell up.
Michael Beasley was a nice pickup. He can fill up the hoop and he’s motivated to prove Miami made a mistake by giving up on him after just his second season in the league.
I still worry about where this team is going to get its points and how they plan on stopping people.
Pick: Under